Mark Shapiro Expects To Remain With Blue Jays
Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro has fielded his share of criticism over five years at the helm, but now seems on the precipice of another term. As Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca was among those to report, Shapiro strongly suggested that he’s going to re-up with the Toronto organization.
Shapiro has long spoken of his interest in remaining with the Jays, so there’s no news there. But as Davidi observes, it’s hard to imagine that the veteran executive would’ve casually made these additional comments in the absence of an all-but-imminent new contract:
“The desire to be here long term has been reciprocated by the people I work for. That’s as simple as I can be for you. I’ll be here until I’m not here. Based upon my desire to be here and the reciprocation of that, I would expect that that’s going to continue to happen.”
It’d certainly rate as a major surprise at this point to see Shapiro depart. Just how long and lucrative his new contract will be remains to be seen, but it appears the Blue Jays will entrust him with navigating a tricky economic and competitive situation.
Quite apart from these suggestive comments, Shapiro seemed safe after a successful 2020 showing. Facing increasing pressure from the fanbase, he and GM Ross Atkins delivered a postseason appearance after making a few significant roster moves in the 2019-20 offseason.
Mattingly On Marlins’ 2021 Rotation Plans
The Marlins turned in a strong 2020 campaign, raising expectations for the immediate future. To compete over a 162-game season, and to deliver a multi-year window of contention, the organization will need several promising young starters to settle in as top-quality rotation pieces.
Compiling a 2021 rotation will be the ultimate responsibility of a new baseball operations leader, but now-entrenched skipper Don Mattingly will likely have a significant say in the matter. Mattingly discussed the outlook for the pitching staff recently, as Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald covers.
While it stands to reason that high-profile youngster Sixto Sanchez will occupy a major role, Mattingly made clear that a the righty will have to earn a rotation spot. Though Sanchez “showed what he’s capable of,” Mattingly says there’s also “some downside to that and some areas where he needs to grow.”
Sanchez’s rookie showing was impressive by most any measure. Over 39 frames, he limited the long ball and racked up a 58.0% groundball rate to support a sturdy 3.46 ERA. The 22-year-old averaged 99 mph with his four-seam heater.
Despite that effort, Mattingly says Sanchez will enter camp in the same boat as fellow newcomer Trevor Rogers, who posted eyepopping strikeout numbers but carried a 6.11 ERA. Both hurlers will need to “continue to develop,” Mattingly said.
So, who is assured of a rotation job, presuming good health? Mattingly explains that he’s penciling in Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, and Elieser Hernandez at this early point.
It’d be hard to argue with that assessment. Hernandez has the thinnest track record of the trio, but it’s hard not to be impressed by his compilation of 11.9 K/9 against just 1.8 BB/9 in a six-start run. Mattingly expressed confidence in Hernandez’s health after his season was cut short by a lat injury.
The Fish could have the makings of a strong unit, but plenty of variables remain. Full health can’t be presumed, so there’ll be a need for more arms even if Sanchez ultimately takes a rotation slot. Mattingly also tabbed Nick Neidert and Jose Urena as possibilities, though the former has yet to make a MLB start and the latter seems to be a potential non-tender candidate.
Looking For A Match In A Francisco Lindor Trade
The 2020 season ended in more disappointment for the Indians, who reached the playoffs but were once again unable to break a World Series drought that has gone back to their most recent title in 1948. The Indians may again try to contend next season, but it’s entirely possible they’ll do so without superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor. Although the charismatic four-time All-Star won’t even turn 27 until next month, he’s only a year from a trip to free agency, and odds are that the low-budget Indians won’t be able to extend him. With Lindor due to earn anywhere from $17.5MM to $21.5MM in arbitration, it could make sense for the Indians to listen to trade offers before next season. If that happens, here’s a group of teams that might inquire…
Yankees
- New York seems to have its long-term answer at shortstop in Gleyber Torres, but he had a so-so season, after which general manager Brian Cashman indicated he’s not a lock to remain at the position. With second baseman DJ LeMahieu set to reach free agency, the Yankees will have to address their middle infield in the coming months. What better way to replace LeMahieu than by acquiring Lindor? He’d grab short and allow the Yankees to move Torres back to the keystone, where he gained a large amount of experience from 2018-19.
Mets
- This should be an aggressive offseason for the Mets, who figure to change owners from the Wilpons to Steve Cohen. If Cohen wants to make an immediate, headline-grabbing impact, there won’t be many better ways than by acquiring Lindor. The Mets aren’t necessarily set at short, where Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario were more OK than great in 2020.
Angels
- Regardless of whether the Angels acquire Lindor, they’re probably going to add a new starting middle infielder this offseason. David Fletcher‘s capable of playing shortstop, so they’re not necessarily a shoo-in to pick up someone there. However, with Andrelton Simmons set to hit free agency, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them add a high-profile replacement and keep Fletcher at second. The Angels, having missed the playoffs six years in a row, could decide to go big on Lindor. He’d look good in a lineup with Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon.
Braves
- The Braves received solid production from shortstop Dansby Swanson in 2020, but after failing to take home a championship once again, would they consider a sizable splash in their infield? It seems possible, especially considering their uncertainty at third base. In the event of a Lindor acquisition, the Braves could either move Swanson to the hot corner or make Swanson part of the (a) trade.
Phillies
- Shortstop wasn’t an issue in 2020 for the Phillies, who benefited after signing Didi Gregorius to a $14MM contract. The problem for Philly is that it may lose Gregorius in free agency, leaving the position as a question mark heading into the offseason. Lindor would make for a more-than-adequate Gregorius replacement if the latter leaves.
Dodgers
- Flaws are typically hard to find on the Dodgers’ roster, but considering their deep farm system and their penchant for pursuing stars in trades (Mookie Betts and Manny Machado, to name a couple in recent years), it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them involved in the Lindor sweepstakes. The Dodgers are fine with moving players all over the diamond, so even though there’s no clear “fit” for Lindor in LA – which boasts Corey Seager, Max Muncy and Gavin Lux among its returning middle infielders – the club could probably make it work.
Blue Jays
- Toronto already has an-up-coming shortstop in Bo Bichette, but perhaps the club would be willing to shift its infield around to accommodate Lindor after a playoff season. Bichette could move to second or third, giving the Jays an infield consisting of him, Lindor, Cavan Biggio and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. On paper, that may be among the scariest IF units in the game.
Reds
- A Lindor pursuit could be out of the question for the Reds, but they do need immediate aid at shortstop. Picking up Lindor would give the team a better chance to contend in 2020, and it would hand Cincinnati an opportunity to send Jose Garcia back to the minors for further seasoning.
Athletics
- The A’s may not have the financial clout to pull this off, but all bets could be off if it’s just for a year. Either way, the A’s, who are coming off a division-winning season, will have to figure out their middle infield before next season. Starting shortstop Marcus Semien is slated for free agency, leaving the A’s without a solution there for the time being.
Twins
- Considering Cleveland and Minnesota are in the same division, it seems unlikely they’ll match up on a Lindor trade. Still, if the Twins make a compelling offer, the Indians would have to listen. Adding Lindor would allow the Twins to move current starting shortstop Jorge Polanco into a utility role, though that’s assuming he wouldn’t be involved in a possible deal.
Cubs
- The Cubs already have a shortstop in Javier Baez, but he had a shockingly rough 2020 and does have extensive experience at second base. Maybe president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, who’s seeking to change around the Cubs’ offense, would acquire Lindor and move Baez to the keystone in hopes of giving the club a jolt. Chicago does have a notable young middle infielder in Nico Hoerner, but he hasn’t hit since debuting in 2019.
MLBTR Poll: Marcell Ozuna’s Next Contract
Outfielder Marcell Ozuna just wrapped up a dream season as a member of the Braves, with whom he slashed .338/.431/.606 and totaled a National League-leading 18 home runs in 267 plate appearances. The Braves couldn’t have expected better than that when they signed Ozuna, a former Marlin and Cardinal, to a one-year, $18MM contract last January. Unfortunately for Atlanta, though, it could lose Ozuna in the coming weeks.
While Ozuna didn’t make out as hoped in free agency an offseason ago, this winter could be a different story. With the offseason looming, Ozuna stands out as one of the absolute best hitters who could become available soon. He also won’t be dealing with a qualifying offer, which helped weigh down his market a year ago. The main issue is whether the universal designated hitter will stick around, as that could impact how many NL teams pursue Ozuna on the open market. While Ozuna has spent his entire career in the NL, the Braves mostly deployed him as a DH in 2020.
Regardless of his defensive questions, Ozuna should have a lot of offense-needy teams after him in the offseason. Along with his bottom-line production, which has consistently been better than average, Ozuna is something of a Statcast favorite.The Braves have said they’d like to re-sign Ozuna, but whether it’s them or another team, how much do you think he’ll earn on his next contract?
(Poll link for app users)
Predict Ozuna's Next Contract
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More than $75MM 59% (8,842)
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Less than $75MM 41% (6,078)
Total votes: 14,920
Blue Jays Notes: Pitching, Defense, Pearson, Kirk
Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said Wednesday the club will prioritize improving its strike throwing and defense this offseason, Scott Mitchell of TSN tweets. Although Toronto earned a playoff spot in 2020, its pitching staff ranked 28th in the majors in walks per nine innings (4.29), helping lead to a middling 4.63 ERA/4.73 FIP. The Blue Jays now have multiple openings in their starting staff, which could see Matt Shoemaker, Taijuan Walker and Robbie Ray leave in free agency. Defensively, the Jays ended up 20th in UZR (minus-6) and 29th in DRS (minus-39), so it’s also understandable that Atkins wants to address that aspect of the team.
Here’s more on the up-and-coming Jays…
- The Blue Jays promoted hyped right-handed prospect Nate Pearson in late July, but he ultimately went through an adverse rookie campaign. The 24-year-old threw 18 innings of 6.00 ERA/7.50 FIP ball, owing in part to elbow problems. Although Pearson didn’t experience the success or endure the workload the Jays were hoping for this year, they’re optimistic about him going forward (via Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star). “What I think it means is that he made progress this year, even though he had the injury and had the setback. He made his major-league debut, he showed he can get major-league hitters out, and he will better because of that in his progression next year,” said Atkins. Toronto will monitor Pearson’s innings in 2021, though he should still be an important part of its rotation.
- More from Chisholm, who writes that Toronto could hand the catching reins to Alejandro Kirk sometime in 2021, though he’s not a lock to begin the season with the big club. Atkins called the 21-year-old Kirk’s process “very, very mature,” but he’ll need a “very productive” winter to earn a season-opening spot with the Blue Jays. Kirk, who hadn’t played above High-A ball, was hugely impressive during his brief MLB debut in 2020, slashing .375/.400/.583 with a home run in 25 plate appearances. Primary catcher Danny Jansen batted .183/.313/.358 with six homers across 147 PA.
Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians
Has Francisco Lindor played his last game in an Indians uniform? The shortstop’s fate is the biggest of several questions facing the Tribe this winter.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Carlos Carrasco, SP: $27MM through 2022 (including $3MM buyout of $14MM club/vesting option for 2022 season)
- Jose Ramirez, 3B: $11MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $11MM club option for 2022; also has a $13MM club option for 2023)
Arbitration-Eligible Players
Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.
- Austin Hedges – $3.0MM
- Adam Cimber – $800K
- Delino DeShields – $2.1MM
- Francisco Lindor – $19.0MM
- Phil Maton – $700K
- Tyler Naquin – $1.8MM
- Nick Wittgren – $1.5MM
- Non-tender candidates: Hedges, DeShields, Naquin
Option Decisions
- Carlos Santana, 1B: $17.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
- Brad Hand, RP: $10MM club option ($1MM buyout)
- Roberto Perez, C: $5.5MM club option ($450K buyout)(deal also has $7MM club option for the 2022 season)
- Domingo Santana, OF: $5MM club option ($250 buyout)
Free Agents
After winning 93 games but missing the postseason in 2019, the Tribe got back to the playoffs this year before being unceremoniously swept by the Yankees in the best-of-three wild card series. Despite a .588 winning percentage since the start of the 2017 season, the Indians haven’t won a single postseason series in those four years, making one of the more successful stretches in franchise history seem like something of a disappointment.
Cleveland has both stretched and tried to manage its payroll to sustain this competitive window, trading such high-salaried notables as Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber in 2019 to save some money and add some younger talent. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic reduced revenues around baseball, the 2020-21 offseason was always projecting to be a transformative one for the Indians given how many key players (and key salaries) could be moved off the books.
We’ll begin with Lindor, who is entering his final year under team control. Though neither side has ruled out the possibility of a contract extension, the writing has long been on the wall that the Indians won’t be able to afford the $200MM+ it would take to retain Lindor over the long term. As such, this offseason represents the last and best opportunity for the Tribe to deal Lindor for a significant trade return, since waiting until next year’s trade deadline would greatly reduce the Indians’ asking price (and increases the risk of Lindor getting hurt or having a bad season). Moving Lindor prior to Opening Day would also allow Cleveland to save at least $17.5MM in payroll, depending on how his arbitration number is figured.
There are several teams who figure to check in on Lindor’s services, if they haven’t already over the last couple of seasons. Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, and Andrelton Simmons headline this winter’s free agent shortstop class, so Lindor could be seen as a preferable upgrade to that trio for shortstop-needy teams.
Is there a case to be made for keeping Lindor? Certainly. Looking at the finances first, Carlos Santana is likely to have his $17.5MM club option declined in the wake of a career-worst season for the veteran first baseman. With Santana’s money coming off the books anyway, Lindor’s salary might not be seen as onerous for a club that has so little in the way of future contractual commitments.
Plus, trading Lindor for an acceptable return might not be quite so easy for Cleveland. We’re only a year away from a potentially epic free agent shortstop class that could include Lindor himself along with Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, Trevor Story, and Corey Seager, so rival teams might prefer to acquire a one-year stopgap for 2021 before making the big splash at the position next year. Trading for Lindor now would cost a team both young talent and money in the form of Lindor’s salary, whereas signing any of Semien, Gregorius, or Simmons costs only money, and less than Lindor’s projected arbitration cost. Lindor is also coming off a down year by his standards (.258/.335/.415 with eight home runs over 266 plate appearances), which could make teams wary if they don’t write that performance off as a by-product of 2020’s unusual circumstances.
Cleveland doesn’t seem to have any inclination to rebuild, so having Lindor in the lineup would go a long way towards getting them back to the playoffs. His average numbers in 2020 notwithstanding, Lindor is still one of baseball’s better players, and he has a particular importance on an offensively-challenged Cleveland team. Part of the reason the Indians were willing to deal Bauer, Kluber, and Mike Clevinger was because of the club’s impressive ability to find and develop big league-ready pitching to restock the rotation, but Lindor is a much tougher player to replace.
MVP candidate Jose Ramirez and young slugger Franmil Reyes are the only sure things in a lineup that could be completely overhauled. Beyond Lindor and Santana, Cesar Hernandez performed admirably as the Tribe’s second baseman but is headed for free agency. Delino DeShields and/or Tyler Naquin could be non-tendered as the outfield continues to be a problem area. At catcher, the Indians could roll with Roberto Perez and Austin Hedges and let Sandy Leon walk in free agency, or one of Perez or Hedges could be let go.
Keeping Lindor would add more stability to an overall unstable position player mix. In the event that he is dealt, the Tribe could look internally to Yu Chang, Mike Freeman, or (with an aggressive promotion) prospect Tyler Freeman to fill the shortstop void, or Cleveland could themselves look to add a one-year veteran stopgap. Chang or Mike Freeman could then be used at second base if Hernandez isn’t re-signed, though Hernandez has expressed interest in returning and might have a palatable enough asking price for the Tribe to explore a reunion.
Josh Naylor, acquired from the Padres as part of the Clevinger trade in August, will factor somewhere into the 2021 lineup, though it remains to be seen if the Canadian will be an everyday player at either left field or first base. Jake Bauers could also be used at either position while Bobby Bradley is a first base candidate. Star prospect Nolan Jones could also factor into the first base or corner outfield picture, as Jones is being worked out at other positions since Ramirez is occupies third base.
There are enough in-house candidates to provide the front office with some flexibility in their winter shopping. If the outfield is a priority over second base, for example, the Indians could put their resources towards adding an outfielder and then making do with a Chang/Freeman platoon at the keystone. The problem is, of course, that just about all of Cleveland’s internal candidates are either unproven at the MLB level or are coming off dreadful seasons. (Oscar Mercado, for instance, went from Rookie Of The Year candidate in 2019 to possibly the worst hitter in baseball in 2020.) While keeping Lindor helps this lineup, the lack of solid position player depth also serves as an argument for dealing him, since a trade might be the best method for the Tribe to acquire at least one younger, cheaper, MLB-ready regular.
Since spending will be a premium, the Tribe will be looking to find veterans at relative bargain prices. The non-tender market is expected to be enormous, and every other team in baseball will also be hoping to scoop up lower-cost players from that same pool. In a market where contract offers might be low across the board, the Indians have some attractive selling points for prospective free agents — plenty of opportunity for regular playing time, as well as the chance to play for a consistent contender with an elite pitching staff.
Speaking of that rotation, the Indians have the luxury of being able to focus much of their attention the position player side of the diamond thanks to their collection of arms. Cleveland is one of the few teams that has the pitching depth to potentially make a starter available in a trade, and as the most expensive of the bunch, Carlos Carrasco might be the most obvious trade chip. As Zack Meisel of The Athletic recently noted, however, Carrasco is such a clubhouse leader and important veteran voice on the perpetually young pitching staff that the team might see him as too valuable to move. If the hitting is going to continue to be a question mark, the Tribe might also prioritize keeping their rotation as strong as possible.
Cleveland’s bullpen was almost as impressive as the starting staff in 2020. Another contract with veteran southpaw Oliver Perez seems like a reasonable proposition, but Brad Hand’s $10MM club option looms as the relief corps’ biggest issue. With James Karinchak positioned as a closer of the future, the Indians might prefer to install Karinchak now rather than pay $10MM to a reliever, even an outstanding one like Hand. However, Hand is still such a quality pitcher that letting him go for nothing seems like something of a waste of an asset.
Exercising Hand’s option would at least allow the Indians the flexibility to explore trading him this winter, and if no deal could be found, $10MM for Hand might not be so hard to absorb if other salaries (i.e. Santana, Hernandez, Lindor) are also being moved out. Cleveland could even explore packaging Lindor and Hand together in one blockbuster trade package, if another team wanted to make a big splash to contend in 2021.
With such a tremendous young rotation, the Indians’ window for a World Series is still open. This offseason will be spent adding and subtracting from the lineup in search of the combination that will generate enough offense to give the pitching a chance.
Rangers Claim Art Warren
The Rangers announced Wednesday that they’ve claimed right-hander Art Warren off waivers from the division-rival Mariners. The move brings Texas’ 40-man roster to a total of 39 players and drops Seattle’s to a count of 33.
Warren, 27, has just 5 1/3 big league innings under his belt, all coming in 2019 with Seattle. He averaged just north of 95 mph on his heater in that time and drew 70 grades on the pitch when he was rising through the system after being selected in the 23rd round of the 2015 draft. Warren worked almost exclusively with a four-seamer and a slider — his most frequently used offering — in that tiny sample of work.
Had their been a conventional minor league season in 2020, Warren likely would’ve been ticketed for Triple-A — a level at which he still has yet to pitch. He jumped straight from Double-A to the Majors when making that 2019 debut. In a total of 47 1/3 frames of Double-A ball, Warren carries a 1.71 ERA and has averaged a dozen strikeout per nine innings, although he’s also averaged five walks per nine. He still has a minor league option remaining after spending the 2020 season in the Mariners’ player pool at their alternate training site. Warren did get a call to the big leagues with Seattle this past season but didn’t get into a game before being optioned back out.
As Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times points out, via Twitter, the Mariners have a whopping eight players on the 60-day injured list who’ll either need to be reinstated or designated for assignment, so it’s not much of a surprise to see some continued roster maintenance. That group includes Tom Murphy, Mitch Haniger, Gerson Bautista, Matt Magill, Andres Munoz, Taylor Guilbeau, Carl Edwards Jr. and Nestor Cortes Jr. Not all are locks to stick on the roster — Edwards, in particular, could be on shaky ground — but Murphy, Haniger, Magill and perhaps Munoz are all ticketed for notable roles next year.
Zack Wheeler Undergoes Fingernail Resection Procedure
The Phillies announced Wednesday that righty Zack Wheeler underwent a “right middle fingernail resection procedure” last week. He’s expected to be ready to go in time for Spring Training.
The minor surgical procedure was performed not only in hopes of repairing a fluky late-season injury in which Wheeler almost lost his middle fingernail completely after catching it on a zipper, but to correct some chronic issues with the nail. NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Corey Seidman notes that Wheeler has had minor issues with that nail dating back to high school. Cracked nails certainly don’t sound like a major issue, of course, but such maladies can impact a pitcher’s ability to grip the ball — particularly on breaking pitches.
If the fingernail was a major impediment for Wheeler this season, it certainly didn’t show in his results. The 30-year-old right-hander, who signed a five-year deal worth $118MM last offseason, made 11 starts for the Phils and racked up 71 innings with a 2.92 ERA, 3.22 FIP and career-best 55.9 percent ground-ball rate. Wheeler’s strikeout rate dipped, though that was due largely to his incorporation of a sinker/two-seamer that dramatically improved his ground-ball rate.
There was some concern late in the season that the aforementioned freak injury might cause Wheeler to lose his entire fingernail and possibly end his season. He rallied and returned to the mound to give the Phils three more solid starts down the stretch, however, allowing nine runs on 19 hits and seven walks with 17 strikeouts through 21 frames after that point. Wheeler is still owed $96.5MM over the final four seasons of his contract in Philadelphia.
Anthopoulos: Braves Hope To Re-Sign Ozuna
For a second straight season, the Braves struck gold on a one-year deal for a middle-of-the-order threat. Atlanta’s 2019 deal with Josh Donaldson proved to be a masterstroke, and although the front office was panned for letting the “Bringer of Rain” walk, GM Alex Anthopoulos’ one-year deal for slugger Marcell Ozuna proved similarly fruitful. The former Marlins and Cardinals slugger delivered a superlative .338/.431/.636 slash and 18 home runs in 267 plate appearances, tacking on three postseason big flies.
The Braves now face a similar dilemma with Ozuna, who’ll draw interest on multi-year deals as one of the best bats in free agency. Unlike Donaldson, Ozuna is ineligible for a qualifying offer, having rejected one last winter. That not only bolsters his free-agent stock but also puts the Braves at risk of receiving no compensation if he departs. In speaking with reporters following the Braves’ NLCS exit, Anthopoulos made clear that re-signing Ozuna is a priority but also spoke with some caution (links via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Mark Bowman of MLB.com).
“Marcell was amazing for us,” said Anthopoulos. “He was awesome. We’d love to have him back. I certainly plan on having discussions. … We’re going to have to work hard to get as many answers as we can from a revenue standpoint, a DH standpoint, all of those things.”
Anthopoulos sidestepped questions about team budget, noting that he had yet to discuss payroll with ownership and adding, understandably for competitive purposes, that he wouldn’t divulge the result of those talks even if they’d taken place. The GM pointed to uncertainties about 2021 revenue and whether they’ll play a full slate of games with fans in attendance next year as additional factors in determining club payroll, re-signing free agents and exploring other offseason moves.
As for Ozuna himself, the soon-to-be 30-year-old slugger took to social media to offer kind words and gratitude toward the Braves organization, his teammates and the Atlanta fanbase.
“I made the right decision to come play for the Braves,” Ozuna wrote on Instagram. “My time in Atlanta this year brought me so much joy and I will remember this season ALWAYS. None of us know what the future holds, but I know the future is BIG and BRIGHT. Thank you all.”
Specifics of Ozuna’s goals in free agency can’t be known, but his decision to bet on himself last winter could scarcely have gone better. Ozuna reportedly turned down a three-year offer to sign with the Reds, instead opting for a larger one-year salary and the opportunity to return to free agency this winter.
The Braves provided that opportunity, likely due to the upside Ozuna showed in a huge 2017 campaign with the Marlins and his top-of-the-scale ratings in various Statcast measures of interest. In 2019, Ozuna ranked in the 85th percentile or better in terms of barrel rate (85th), average exit velocity (91st), hard-hit rate (96th), expected batting average (89th), expected slugging percentage (90th) and expecte weighted on-base average (91st).
Impressive as that batted-ball profile was, Ozuna’s actual results on the field were relatively pedestrian (.241/.328/.478). That output, combined with defensive questions and the draft-pick compensation attached to his name after rejecting a qualifying offer, tempered interest in Ozuna. That almost certainly won’t be the case this winter, as Ozuna not only delivered elite results at the plate but somehow managed to improve in each of those batted-ball metrics, suggesting that his Herculean season is sustainable.
As Anthopoulos alluded to, teams are still uncertain whether there will be a permanent designated hitter in the National League. That’s critical with regard to Ozuna, who is limited to left field and experienced considerable throwing issues during his time with the Cardinals due to prior shoulder troubles. The Braves utilized Ozuna as their primary DH in 2020 and would surely prefer to do so moving forward.
There’s a widely held belief throughout the industry that even if the NL DH is stricken from the rulebook in 2021, it will be implemented as part of the 2021 collective bargaining talks. As such, the Braves or any other NL club might be willing to bet on using Ozuna in left field for a year and then moving him to DH in 2022 and beyond, but some certainty on that front would surely help his market.
Focusing on the Braves specifically, it’s hard to know whether they’ll buck recent trends under the Anthopoulos regime and take this type of financial plunge. Anthopoulos has eschewed long-term deals for the most part, going beyond two years in just one instance: last year’s three-year, $40MM deal for lefty Will Smith. Outside of that, he’s taken a conservative approach in free agency — even as it comes to big-name targets.
There was ample pressure from fans to bring Craig Kimbrel back on a multi-year deal when his market stalled out, but the Braves opted against it. The same was true of Dallas Keuchel, but the Braves held out until Keuchel could be had on a midseason, one-year deal. Donaldson, Ozuna and Cole Hamels represent other big-name, high-priced one-year deals. Since Anthopoulos took the reins, the Braves haven’t done beyond Smith’s $13.33MM annual salary on a multi-year deal for any free agent.
Signing Ozuna this winter would necessitate a departure from that stance. While no one can be certain how this year’s market will shake out thanks to those revenue losses, the expectation is that the top stars will still be paid. Ozuna should seemingly command at least a four-year deal — possibly a five-year pact — at a base rate in line with or more likely exceeding his current $18MM salary.
There’s certainly space on the payroll to make that plunge, thanks in no small part to overwhelmingly team-friendly deals for Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr. That said, this decision will not only come against the backdrop of revenue losses but also the need to hammer out an extension for franchise icon Freddie Freeman, whose eight-year deal expires at the conclusion of the 2021 season. Add in what should be a competitive market for Ozuna’s services, and a reunion is far from a sure thing. The outcome can’t be known at this point, but Ozuna’s situation already has plenty of parallels with last year’s Donaldson saga.
Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates were baseball’s worst team in 2020, although that came as little surprise following a winter where their only moves of note were to fire their manager, fire their GM and eventually trade away their best position player. They’ll have the top pick in next summer’s draft and another offseason that could subtract some notable names from the big league roster.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Gregory Polanco, OF: $14MM through 2021 (includes buyout of 2022 club option; contract also contains 2023 club option)
Arbitration-Eligible Players
Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using his 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.
- Josh Bell – $5.7MM
- Steven Brault – $1.5MM
- Nick Burdi – $600K
- Kyle Crick – $800K
- Michael Feliz – $1.1MM
- Adam Frazier – $3.7MM
- Erik Gonzalez – $1.2MM
- Chad Kuhl – $1.4MM
- Luke Maile – $900K
- Colin Moran – $1.9MM
- Joe Musgrove – $3.4MM
- Jose Osuna – $1.1MM
- Richard Rodriguez – $1.1MM
- Jacob Stallings – $1.0MM
- Chris Stratton – $800K
- Jameson Taillon – $2.3MM
- Trevor Williams – $3.5MM
- John Ryan Murphy – $600K
- Nick Tropeano – $700K
- Non-tender candidates: Feliz, Gonzalez, Maile, Osuna, Murphy, Tropeano
Option Decisions
- Chris Archer, RHP: $11MM club option with a $250K buyout
Free Agents
Other Contractual Obligations
- The Pirates technically owe Felipe Vazquez $7.75MM in 2021, but he’s not earning his salary while on the restricted list due to the abhorrent statutory sexual assault charges brought forth against him in 2019.
The Pirates will head into the 2020-21 offseason with an offense that scored the fewest runs in baseball (219) and a pitching staff that ranked 19th in ERA and 22nd in FIP. It’d be impossible to fix this club in just one offseason, but that’s of course not the goal of GM Ben Cherington and his staff, who surely knew they were signing on for a rebuilding effort when ownership fired former GM Neal Huntington.
Unfortunately for the Pirates, virtually every would-be trade chip on the roster saw his value disintegrate in what was a disastrous 2020 season. Chris Archer could have been one of the more intriguing arms on the trade market but didn’t pitch after undergoing thoracic outlet surgery. That procedure makes his $11MM club option a virtual lock to be bought out, which should formally close the books on one of the most lopsided trades in franchise history. Closer Keone Kela was a no-brainer trade piece but missed the early portion of the season on the Covid-19 injured list and immediately went down with a forearm issue that ultimately ended his season. Both physical setbacks surely deprived the Pirates of the chance to acquire some younger, cost-controlled talent.
Archer and Kela were far from the only injuries that hindered any would-be rebuilding efforts for Cherington & Co., however. Right-hander Joe Musgrove hit the IL with a triceps injury in early August and wasn’t able to return prior to the Aug. 31 trade deadline. He was still discussed in trades — the Blue Jays reportedly came close to striking a deal, in fact — but Musgrove stayed put and will surely be on the market again this winter. Hot-hitting Colin Moran could conceivably have garnered interest from teams in need of a bat; he was hitting .259/.326/.531 as of Aug. 23 — when he was hit by a pitch and diagnosed with a concussion that kept him out until the deadline had passed.
When all was said and done, Jarrod Dyson was the only player the Pirates moved — a deal that netted them a bit of extra cash to devote to international free agency. Musgrove and fellow righty starter Trevor Williams were discussed but never moved, and the Pirates’ remaining trade assets all flopped in terms of performance. Josh Bell, Adam Frazier and Gregory Polanco all hit so poorly that it’s hard to imagine many contenders even carried substantial interest — and that’s an issue that dovetails nicely into what a tough situation Cherington and his staff will face this winter. Here’s a look at what each of those three players did in 2020:
- Bell: .226/.305/.364, eight home runs, career-worst 26.5 percent strikeout rate
- Polanco: .153/.214/.325, seven home runs, career-worst 37.4 percent strikeout rate
- Frazier: .230/.297/.364, seven home runs, career-worst 15.2 percent strikeout rate
Under normal circumstances, any of those three would ostensibly be an appealing trade chip. Polanco has battled injuries and inconsistency, but at his best in 2018, he hit .254/.340/.499 with 23 home runs, 32 doubles, six triples, a dozen steals and decent defense in right field. Bell crushed 37 home runs last year, and while he’s a poor defender at first base, he’s also a switch-hitter who is controlled through the 2022 season. Frazier isn’t as well-known but entered the 2020 season with a career .279/.342/.420 slash. Like Bell, he’s controlled through 2022.
Minor struggles or a slight down season might’ve helped to keep interest in that trio alive, but Bell and Polanco, in particular, ranked among MLB’s worst players. Of the 310 players in baseball to take at least 100 plate appearances this year, Bell’s -0.4 fWAR tied him for 283rd, while Polanco checked in at 303rd. Maybe a team would still like to acquire Bell while his salary is manageable and roll the dice on his two years of club control, but no one would pay a premium to do so. Polanco’s salary now looks mostly immovable. Frazier’s season wasn’t quite as dire, but a trade would still be selling quite low on a typically steady producer.
There are similar quandaries in the rotation. Trevor Williams got out to a solid start to his 2020 season but was shelled over his final six starts. In his final 31 frames, he yielded 28 earned runs on 41 hits (12 homers) and 13 walks with 26 punchouts. Chad Kuhl posted a respectable 4.27 ERA through 46 1/3 innings in his return from Tommy John surgery, but he also walked 28 batters and hit a pair in that time, resulting in an ugly 5.48 FIP and 4.98 xFIP. Jameson Taillon moved another year closer to free agency in 2020, but the Pirates can’t be expected to trade him when he hasn’t pitched since June 2019 due to his second Tommy John surgery. All three of those pitchers are controlled through 2022, so there’s time to build some value back up next season.
If there’s one bright spot from the rotation that should bring the Bucs a nice haul this winter, it’s the aforementioned Musgrove. His forearm troubles limited him to 39 2/3 frames in 2020, but he was quite good when healthy (3.86 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 55-to-16 K/BB ratio, 48.2 percent grounder rate). Thankfully for the Pirates, Musgrove finished well upon his return and was utterly dominant in his final two outings: 13 shoutout frames against the Indians and Cardinals with a 21-to-2 K/BB ratio. He’s controlled another two seasons, and with a 4.23 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 8.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 325 1/3 innings since being acquired by Pittsburgh, he’ll be among the more appealing arms on the trade market this winter — especially considering a projected salary south of $4MM.
There are certainly some other arms the Bucs could market to the league’s many pitching-needy clubs. Southpaw Steven Brault turned in a career-best 3.38 ERA and 3.92 FIP through 42 2/3 frames, working mostly as a starter. His previous track record was limited, but he’s controlled through 2023 (and sings one heck of a National Anthem). Right-hander Richard Rodriguez quietly posted a 2.70 ERA/2.85 FIP with a 34-to-5 K/BB ratio in 23 1/3 frames. Chris Stratton, acquired from the Angels for cash in 2019, has a 3.76 ERA and matching FIP with 10.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 76 2/3 innings as a Pirate. Both relievers are controlled through 2023 as well.
Perhaps behind the plate, 30-year-old Jacob Stallings could be an under-the-radar trade candidate. Stallings has hit .256/.326/.380 over the past two seasons while also serving as one of the best defenders in baseball. He’ll be 31 in December, but he’s controlled through 2024. It’d be a leap of faith for a contending club to plug him in as a starter, but over Stallings’ past 353 plate appearances, he’s been worth 2.4 fWAR and rWAR alike. If nothing else, his considerable platoon splits would make his right-handed bat a strong complement to another club’s left-handed-hitting starter.
Certainly, that’s a lot of focus on what the Pirates could subtract this winter and not much of a look at what they could add. It goes without saying that the Bucs won’t be players for any of the market’s top free agents or any high-profile players on the trade market. That doesn’t mean Cherington’s group will entirely eschew some free-agent additions, however. In fact, there’s good reason to argue for the Pirates being fairly aggressive with short-term adds in free agency.
Assuming a Musgrove trade is ultimately put together, there will be space in the rotation to attract free-agent starters in search of rebounds. Taillon and righty Mitch Keller should have spots locked down, and either of Williams or Kuhl could get another look if they’re not traded. Adding a rotation piece in need of a bounceback — or perhaps a young, non-tendered arm with some upside — would be wise.
The current group of free-agent starters includes rebound candidates like Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Wacha, Alex Wood, Tyler Chatwood and numerous others. The non-tender market will add alternatives, with Jose Urena, Vince Velasquez and Steven Matz standing out as a few speculative possibilities. The Pirates have a fairly pitcher-friendly park and a clear path to innings — something many contending clubs won’t be able to offer.
That’s even more true in the bullpen, where there should be numerous spots up for grabs in Spring Training. Promising a few spots to relievers in search of a rebound is sensible given the dearth of proven arms in the current group and the potential to spin any new signings into a decent return come July. We see this sort of deal come together every year around the league, with Kansas City’s recent Trevor Rosenthal addition standing as the most recent example.
With the entire Pirates outfield struggling badly in 2020, the Bucs would be a nice soft landing spot for any free agent whose market collapses — a near inevitability given the expected lack of spending among teams and the potential flooding of the market following the non-tender date. They’ll want to leave space to allow 2019 Rookie of the Year candidate Bryan Reynolds to rebound and, quite likely, to give waiver pickup Anthony Alford a platform to audition. Shortstop-turned-outfielder Cole Tucker should get a look as well. Still, there ought to be enough fluidity to grab a veteran who could provide stability, competitive at-bats and perhaps be flipped as was the case with Dyson this year.
The infield should be mostly set with breakout sensation Ke’Bryan Hayes, who had one of the best showings of any rookie once he was finally called to the big leagues, getting the third base job from the outset. Moran and Bell can pair to handle duties at first base and, if it’s implemented permanently in the NL, at designated hitter. Frazier’s track record should be enough to give him a mulligan on his poor 2020 showing if he isn’t traded. The possibility of a non-tender involving Bell, Frazier or Moran can’t be completely ruled out, but any would register as a surprise.
It’s also plausible that the Bucs could add at shortstop, where none of Kevin Newman, Kevin Kramer or the aforementioned Tucker has solidified himself. The 27-year-old Newman was terrific in 2019 but, like many of his teammates, floundered at the plate in 2020. Right hip surgery, meanwhile, wiped out Kramer’s entire season. Perhaps the Pirates could give a versatile option like Freddy Galvis or Jonathan Villar a look on a bounceback deal if neither is finding much of a market. There may be some speculation connecting the Bucs to KBO star Ha-Seong Kim, who’ll be posted this winter, given the team’s prior winning of the Jung Ho Kang bidding back in 2014. But Kim is a better player, should cost more and should also field offers from more competitive clubs; a match here would be a surprise.
Broadly speaking, it should be a quiet offseason for a Pirates club that, more than anything else, needs to see key 2019 contributors rebound in 2021. It will be critical for Bell, Polanco, Frazier, Williams and others to reestablish some trade value as their club control continues to dwindle. Should that not pan out, there could be a very different and difficult set of decisions for the Bucs to make this time next year. In the meantime, Pirates fans can look forward to watching Hayes build on his astounding debut effort as they continue to dream of what next year’s No. 1 overall pick might bring.