MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The ALCS?
It was just last season when the Rays battled back from down 2-0 to force a game 5 winner-take-all match with the Astros in the ALDS. That game featured a showdown of Gerrit Cole versus Tyler Glasnow, one that would be replayed this year, but with Cole wearing pinstripes. Cole fared better last year, when the Astros took down the Rays by a score of 6-1. The Rays got their revenge on Cole Friday night, and now they’re ready to check the Astros off their list as well. Easier said than done, however, as these Astros have proven they won’t go quietly.
The home team won every game in their playoff showdown last year. Of course, this season there will be no home crowd to contend with, but the tables have turned in that the Rays are the AL East champs who will enjoy last bats for games 1, 2, 5, and 7. As a wild card entrant, the Astros are a rare much-disliked underdog. They’re also a much different team from last year, at least on the pitching side of things.
Of course, their front offices know each other well. After the Astros were forced to fire Jeff Luhnow, James Click was hired away from the Rays to take over as General Manager. Per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, Click said about facing his former team, “On a scale from zero to weird, it’s going to be weird.”
This series will be played over 7 consecutive days, should it go the distance. Both the Rays and Astros have gone to “playoff style” in their pitcher usage, but a 7-game, 7-day series will stretch those staffs even further. For the Astros, there’s concern about the health of Zack Greinke. The 36-year-old enigmatic ace has been dealing with arm soreness for the past month, though doctors did not find any structural damage. Still, it’s a concern for the Astros, as Greinke hasn’t been at his sharpest, surrendering 5 earned runs in 8 2/3 postseason innings thus far.
They’ve survived without him largely due to the breakout of 26-year-old Framber Valdez, who will start game one on Sunday night. Lance McCullers Jr. will go in game two. They’re planning to remove a position player in favor of having an extra arm for the ALCS, per The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan (via Twitter). Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier are also options to start games, while Enoli Paredes stepped up in a multi-inning role for the Astros against the Athletics. As a staff, they’re breaking new ground with every new win. Even Ryan Pressly, one of their few veterans, is experiencing his first postseason as a closer.
Same as Houston, the Rays will add a 14th pitcher to the staff and drop a position player, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). That should help them cope with a drawn-out series, the but the Rays chart their own path in terms of managing their pitching staff, as evidenced by manager Kevin Cash bringing back Glasnow to serve as a glorified opener on 2-days rest for the clinching game of the ALDS. Blake Snell will get the game one start for the third round in a row, while Charlie Morton is expected – though not announced – as the game two starter.
Because they play in different divisions, these two teams haven’t faced off since last year’s ALDS. The series starts tomorrow night. MLBTR readers, who is going to win this series? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
Who Will Win The ALCS?
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Rays 79% (6,667)
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Astros 21% (1,777)
Total votes: 8,444
Astros Name Starters For First Two Games Of ALCS
The Houston Astros named their starters for the first two games of the upcoming ALCS versus the Tampa Bay Rays. Breakout star Framber Valdez will get the ball in game one, while Lance McCullers Jr. will start the second game on Monday night, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and others (via Twitter).
The 26-year-old Valdez established himself in the rotation this season for the Astros, going 5-3 with a 3.57 ERA/2.85 FIP over 70 2/3 innings with 9.7 K/9 to 2.0 BB/9. His two postseason appearances have been particularly sharp. He threw 5 scoreless innings in relief to lock down game one of the wild card series against the Twins. He then went 7 innings in game two against the A’s, yielding just a pair of runs en route to a victory and a 2-0 series advantage. He’ll get a shot to set a similar tone against the left-leaning Rays.
A veteran of big games, McCullers Jr. will get the ball in game two. The Tampa native will make his 6th career postseason start against the Rays on Monday night. McCullers’ sole postseason appearance this year came in an ALDS game one start against the Athletics. It wasn’t a great outing, as the 27-year-old went 4 innings, giving up 8 hits, 3 home runs, and 5 runs in total – though only 4 were earned. During the regular season, he made 11 starts with a 3.93 ERA/3.70 FIP across 55 innings with 9.2 K/9 to 3.3 BB/9.
Because this series has the potential to go 7 games in 7 days, it’s unclear when Valdez and McCullers Jr. might be ready to pitch a second time. On normal rest, they could return for back-to-back starts in games 6 and 7, but it’s more likely the Astros turn to them sooner, depending on the results of the first few games of the series.
Roenis Elías, Paolo Espino, Aaron Barrett Elect Free Agency
Roenis Elias, Paolo Espino, and Aaron Barrett have elected free agency. All three were outrighted by the Washington Nationals earlier this week, clearing waivers.
Barrett in particular holds a semi-significant role in organizational lore, as the 6’3″ right-hander came back Tommy John surgery only to suffer a horrendous arm injury while rehabbing in a simulated game. Barrett’s second injury has become an almost-boogeyman within the organization, as those present still talk about (as Dan Kolko does here) the sound of that second injury. Nevertheless, Barrett rehabbed a second time, returned to the big leagues in 2019, and won a ring.
The 32-year-old’s five big-league appearances over the last two seasons were largely symbolic, rewards for a high-character player whose tale of perseverance served as a point of pride for many within the organization. All of which is not to take away from his ability on the mound. Barrett was a successful cog in the bullpen from 2014 to 2015 before sustaining those arm injuries. Even after his return, he posted solid numbers in Double-A in 2019, posting a 2.75 ERA across 50 games.
Elías’ tenure in DC was also marked by injuries, but with a less uplifting finish. In a last minute deal, the Nats picked up Elías and Hunter Strickland from the Mariners at the deadline in 2019. He appeared in just 4 games after straining his hamstring. During a rare plate appearance, Elías initially strained his hamstring on an ill-advised sprint down the first base line while pitching in a game in Arizona. He missed the rest of the season, while a left flexor strain would keep him out of action in 2020. Prior to his injuries, Elías used his high-spin approach to save 14 games for the Mariners in 2019. He’ll be an interesting low-cost option for some team to take a flyer on this offseason.
The 33-year-old Espino made just two appearances for the Nats (one start) totaling 6 innings in 2020. It was the right-hander’s first big-league action since 2017 when he appeared for both the Brewers and Rangers.
More Changes To Nationals’ Coaching Staff
More changes are coming to the Washington Nationals coaching staff. Hitting coach Kevin Long will not be returning next season, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Long’s contract has expired after a three-year term. Chip Hale will also be moving on, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Hale was the bench coach when the Nats won the World Series in 2019 before moving to third base this season an in effort by manager Davey Martinez to keep things fresh.
This now makes three key members of the Nationals’ coaching staff who will not be returning. Pitching coach Paul Menhart was also told that his contract would not be renewed. According to Menhart, manager Davey Martinez has the opportunity to hand-pick his coaching staff for the first time since taking over as Nationals manager. It’s unclear if that’s the reason that Martinez is moving on from Long and Hale, but it certainly seems that way.
Hale was initially brought in by GM Mike Rizzo to provide a veteran hand on the bench while Martinez got his feet wet in his first role as manager. After three seasons and a World Series ring, it appears Martinez and the Nationals believe he’s ready to ride without supervision, so to speak. Hale previously managed the Diamondbacks from 2015 to 2016 and served as bench coach to Bob Melvin of the Athletics for three seasons from 2012 to 2014.
Long got his first major-league gig as a hitting coach for the Yankees back in 2007. He stayed in that role for eight seasons before embarking on a three-year term with the Mets. The conclusion of that contract brought him to Washington.
The Nationals offense produced just 3.2 fWAR as a team in 2020, a mark that ranks 27th in the majors. That’s a fairly disappointing outcome, especially considering Juan Soto and Trea Turner combined to produce 5.1 fWAR. But they also had a whopping 10 players rack up negative measures of fWAR, including free agent acquisition Eric Thames (-0.7 fWAR), World Series hero Howie Kendrick (-0.3 fWAR), and a trio of young bats they hope soon to develop into cornerstones: Victor Robles (-0.5 fWAR), Luis Garcia (-0.3 fWAR), and Carter Kieboom (-0.3 fWAR).
Even so, the club still finished 10th in the majors with 293 runs scored. Since the two-time World-Series-winning hitting coach took over in Washington, Nationals teams have scored the 7th-most runs in the majors while slashing .260/.338/.436, good for a 102 wRC+.
Phillies Notes: MacPhail, Front Office, Payroll
As Andrew McCutchen celebrates his 34th birthday today, let’s check out some Phillies-related items…
- Though owner John Middleton recently gave a strong public endorsement to team president Andy MacPhail, multiple sources tell the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber that Middleton would prefer MacPhail either retires from his post a year early, or at least steps away from baseball operations duties. Such a move would allow for a smoother transition for a front office that is searching for a new GM after Matt Klentak stepped down from the post, as a new president of baseball operations and GM could both be hired in tandem, as opposed to hiring a general manager now and then a new president next offseason. Staying with the combo of MacPhail as president and interim GM Ned Rice through 2021 “would seem anathema to Middleton” considering that he clearly feels changes are needed for the Phils.
- Of the 20 Phillies players who are free agents, arbitration-eligible, or controlled by club options for 2021, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb figures only three (arb-eligibles Rhys Hoskins, Zach Eflin, and Andrew Knapp) “are locks to return” next season. Any of the other 17 could conceivably be non-tendered or let walk depending on what kind of budgetary cuts are coming to the Philadelphia payroll, or how the Phils might need to reallocate funds to pursue other needed roster upgrades. J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius are among that group of 17 players, so others could be let go to free up the funds necessary to re-sign at least one of that duo.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read the transcript of today’s live baseball chat
Red Sox Ownership Group Exploring Taking Company Public
Fenway Sports Group LLC is in negotiations with special purpose acquisition company RedBall Acquisition Corp that would eventually see Fenway Sports (owners of the Red Sox and Liverpool FC of the Premier League) go public, Cara Lombardo and Miriam Gottfried of the Wall Street Journal report.
The proposed merger would eventually see Fenway Sports valued at $8 billion (including debt) after going public. RedBall would spend roughly $1.575 billion to become minority partners in this overall enterprise, with Red Sox owner John Henry and his Fenway Sports Group partners retaining majority control.
As Lombardo and Gottfried put it, “the talks are in the early innings and could still fall apart,” so it could still be some time before we see any concrete news. And, it could be that the biggest impact takes place on the soccer front rather than the baseball front, as Lombardo and Gottfried hear that a Fenway Sports/RedBall partnership could look to buy more soccer clubs around Europe. RedBall are already the majority owners of Toulouse FC, buying the French team last July.
Perhaps the most intriguing baseball-related aspect of this deal is that longtime Athletics executive Billy Beane is RedBall’s co-chair. (A’s minority owner Lew Wolff is also on the board.) The other co-chair, Gerry Cardinale, also has some significant MLB ties, as Cardinale sits on the Yankees’ board and was involved in the development of the YES Network — Cardinale’s private equity firm, RedBird Capital, still owns a minority share of YES.
Should the Fenway Sports/RedBall venture go forward, it’s hard to imagine Beane would continue to remain with the A’s if he is that heavily involved in the ownership group of a rival team’s parent company. Following the 2018 season, Beane signed a contract extension of unknown length to remain as the Athletics’ executive VP of baseball operations. Beane also has a four percent ownership stake in the A’s, as per an earlier contract extension from back in 2005.
Rays Name Blake Snell As ALCS Game 1 Starter
After defeating the Yankees last night in a climatic Game 5 victory, the Rays will move from the ALDS almost directly into the American League Championship Series, beginning Sunday night in San Diego. The Rays announced that left-hander Blake Snell will be on the mound to start Game 1 against the Astros, making it three postseason series openers in a row for the former AL Cy Young Award winner.
Snell started Game 1 of the Rays’ wild card series with the Blue Jays, earning the win after tossing 5 2/3 shutout innings. It was a different story in Game 1 of the ALDS, as New York struck for four runs (three on solo homers) in five innings of work against Snell, who allowed six hits and two walks while striking out four batters.
That outing marked Snell’s only ALDS appearance, so he’ll head into Sunday’s game on five full days of rest. The extra day has generally benefited Snell during his career, as he has a 2.78 ERA, 2.94 K/BB rate, and 10.7 K/9 in 44 career starts on five days’ rest, as opposed to a 3.72 ERA in 43 career starts on the normal four days’ rest.
The Astros didn’t excel against left-handed pitching this season, finishing 20th of 30 teams in wRC+ (94) and slugging percentage (.403), 22nd in batting average (.232), and 26th in OBP (.299) against southpaws in 2020. Of course, the playoffs have been a much different story for Houston’s offense, as the Astros have been tearing the cover off the ball over six games against the Twins and Athletics. The Astros’ postseason OPS against lefties (.846) is actually higher than their OPS against right-handers (.836).
While no announcement has yet been made, Charlie Morton seems like the logical candidate to start Game 2 for the Rays. Morton started Game 3 of the ALDS on Wednesday, and thus be lined up for Game 2 of the ALCS on regular rest.
Free Agent Faceoff: Gausman v. Stroman
The upcoming offseason’s free-agent pitching market is not flush with ace-caliber talent. There’s Trevor Bauer, who should sign the richest deal in free agency (at least on an annual basis), and then a slew of hurlers with their share of warts. For those who can’t afford Bauer or the many bidders who lose out on him, there will be a shortage of high-caliber talent. Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman are likely the two best pending free-agent starters beyond Bauer, which doesn’t seem all that encouraging.
While both Gausman and Stroman have logged at least OK numbers for most of their careers, neither has been a top-level starter. For instance, the soon-to-be 30-year-old Gausman is only a year removed from the Braves placing him on waivers, but he was a capable starter with the Orioles before then and a good reliever with the Reds after that.
Gausman settled for a one-year, $9MM contract with the Giants last offseason, though that proved to be a great investment for the club. He wound up making 10 starts in 12 appearances as a Giant and pitching to a 3.62 ERA/3.09 FIP with 11.92 K/9 and 2.41 BB/9 across 59 2/3 innings. Among 81 pitchers who accumulated 50-plus frames, Gausman finished seventh in swinging-strike rate, 14th in K/BB ratio and 15th in FIP. There’s a lot to like about that combination, especially for someone who averages around 95 mph on his fastball.
Stroman, who will also turn 30 before next season, is the more accomplished hurler than Gausman. The former Blue Jay and current Met has recorded a 3.76 ERA/3.64 FIP through 146 games (140 starts) and 849 1/3 frames since he debuted in 2014. Stroman continued that sort of production last year between the teams, and though he doesn’t throw as hard as Gausman, he has overcome a relative lack of velocity with a high amount of grounders and a low number of walks. The problem for Stroman as he nears free agency is that he didn’t pitch at all in 2020 because of coronavirus-related concerns. You can’t blame Stroman for exercising caution, but it remains to be seen whether taking the season off will affect him on the market.
Now, considering the lack of quality starters going into the offseason, Gausman and/or Stroman could be in line for qualifying offers and fairly expensive multiyear pacts. Which player do you think should earn more? (Poll link for app users)
Pick a pitcher
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Stroman 66% (4,661)
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Gausman 34% (2,411)
Total votes: 7,072
Yankees v. Rays: Who Will Advance?
The rival Yankees and Rays entered the season as the two favorites in the AL East, and they did indeed finish atop the division. The Rays handily outdid the Yankees, though, finishing with a 40-20 record to New York’s 33-27 mark. The Rays got there in part because they dominated the Yankees in the regular season with eight victories in the teams’ 10 contests. However, the clubs have been much more evenly matched in their ALDS showdown. At 2-2, they’ll meet for the decisive Game 5 of the series on Friday.
To this point, the offensive excellence of designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton – who already has four home runs in the series – has led the Yankees. In all likelihood, though, New York will need a sterling performance from ace Gerrit Cole, a 30-year-old who’s starting on short rest for the first time in his career, in order to advance. The club signed Cole for this type of game when it landed the ex-Pirate and Astro on a record contract worth $324MM over nine years last offseason. Cole has since gone 2-0 in the playoffs, including a Game 1 victory against the Rays, and allowed five earned runs on 12 hits with a 21:2 K:BB ratio over 13 innings.
With a payroll that falls well short of the Yankees’, the Rays have used a mix of creativity and shrewdly acquired talent to earn a place among the game’s elite teams. They revolutionized the opener strategy a couple years ago, and they won’t be afraid to turn to it yet again Friday. Righty Tyler Glasnow, Cole’s former Pirates teammate, will take the ball in Game 5 at the start; however, Glasnow’s only on two days’ rest, and manager Kevin Cash said on Friday that the Rays will utilize 2018 AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell early if there’s a need for it, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Snell could further strengthen a bullpen that was one of the majors’ best during the regular season.
So far in the series, the Yankees have outscored Glasnow, Snell & Co. by a 23-19 count. But none of that matters heading into a do-or-die Game 5. Which team do you expect to finish with more runs Friday and advance to face the Astros in the ALCS?
(Poll link for app users)
Game 5: Yankees or Rays?
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Rays 75% (4,278)
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Yankees 25% (1,392)
Total votes: 5,670