Top 10 Remaining Free Agents
At least in terms of free-agent signings, this is the fastest-paced offseason Major League Baseball has seen over the past couple years. Of the 50 players MLBTR ranked as the premier free agents entering the winter, more than half (26) have already left the board in the month-plus since the market opened. That includes the handful of elite free agents (Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg and Zack Wheeler), the latest $100MM-plus players in baseball. But now that they’re among the players who have found homes, who are the most appealing performers without deals? Let’s reorder the top 10 based on the rankings MLBTR put together coming into the offseason and see where they stand…
5. Josh Donaldson, 3B: With Rendon no longer available, Donaldson has taken over as hands down the most effective hitter on the market. The former Athletic, Blue Jay, Indian and Brave may well replace Rendon in Washington after posting his latest excellent season with division-rival Atlanta. Otherwise, anyone from a group of teams consisting of the Braves, Twins, Rangers, Phillies or Dodgers could end up with the 34-year-old.
8. Nicholas Castellanos, OF: Age (28 in March) and a quality offensive track record are on Castellanos’ side. Defensive prowess isn’t, on the other hand, but struggles in the field shouldn’t stop Castellanos from securing a multiyear contract worth a sizable sum. The Cubs, with whom he thrived late last season, as well as the Marlins, Rangers, Giants and Diamondbacks are among the clubs that have been connected to Castellanos in free agency.
9. Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP: With Cole, Strasburg, Wheeler and Madison Bumgarner no longer seeking employment, Ryu has assumed the mantle as the No. 1 pitcher without a contract. Ryu will turn 33 in March, and injuries have been problematic for him at times, yet there has been talk of a four-year contract worth at least $17MM per season for the career-long Dodger. Deservedly so, as Ryu finished second in NL Cy Young voting last season.
11. Marcell Ozuna, OF: Between the Marlins and Cardinals, Ozuna owns a years-long track record of posting above-average overall production. But the 29-year-old is more a good player than a star, which is likely why he’s still seeking a contract after most of the truly elite position players have already vacated the board. And the fact that Ozuna has a qualifying offer weighing him down surely doesn’t help.
14. Dallas Keuchel, LHP: A qualifying offer was among the reasons Keuchel didn’t find a contract until last June, when he finally signed with the Braves on a one-year, $13MM pact. The soon-to-be 32-year-old Keuchel didn’t have a banner season with the Braves, and there hasn’t been a ton of reported interest in him this winter, but the former AL Cy Young winner should do better this time with no QO hanging over his head.
21. Julio Teheran, RHP: Teheran, 29 in January, has amassed seven straight seasons of at least 170 innings while posting a career 3.67 ERA/4.23 FIP. He walks too many hitters (upward of four per nine in each of the previous two years), but if you’re in the market for a durable, passable mid- to back-end starter, you can do a whole lot worse than Teheran. That said, rumors on Teheran have been scarce since the Braves declined his $12MM option for 2020 a few days into November.
22. Will Harris, RHP: This isn’t a great offseason for free-agent relievers, especially considering Aroldis Chapman and Will Smith resolved their contract statuses weeks ago. But the underrated Harris, 35, has been rather strong over the past several years. A former Rockie, Diamondback and Astro, Harris logged a 2.84 ERA/3.03 FIP with 9.58 K/9, 2.32 BB/9 and a 49.6 percent groundball rate from 2012-19. Despite that success, though, Harris has drawn very little reported interest this offseason. If you look at Harris’ MLBTR archive, Minnesota has been the only known pursuer thus far.
25. Corey Dickerson, OF: Injuries were a problem for Dickerson in 2019, a 78-game season split between the two Pennsylvania teams, but there’s little doubt he can hit. The well-traveled 30-year-old owns a .286/.328/.504 line with 115 home runs in almost 3,000 plate appearances since debuting in 2014. Nevertheless, Miami is the sole club that has shown rumored interest in Dickerson since free agency.
28. Daniel Hudson, RHP: Rumors centering on Hudson, who became an unexpected hero for the World Series-winning Nationals after they acquired him from the Blue Jays at July’s deadline, had been scarce until Tuesday. While a return to Washington has looked like a no-brainer for both sides this winter, they remain apart in contract talks. The hard-throwing Hudson, 33 in March, wants a multiyear pact and may be able to find one with another team if the Nats don’t meet his demands.
33. Robinson Chirinos, C: Yasmani Grandal and Travis d’Arnaud are among the free-agent catchers who have found new homes, and it shouldn’t be long before the 35-year-old Chirinos follows them. Although defense isn’t Chirinos’ calling card, his above-average offensive track record leaves him as arguably the best backstop left on the market. At least a few teams have shown interest this offseason in Chirinos, including the AL-winning Houston club that benefited from adding him in 2019.
Cubs To Sign Hernan Perez
The Cubs have agreed to a minor-league pact with utilityman Hernan Perez, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). It’s said to include a non-roster invitation to participate in big league camp. Perez would earn $1MM in the majors and could double that via incentives.
Perez, 28, is at his best a notable stolen-base threat who delivers quality glovework all over the field. But his bat has never kept pace and has increasingly drooped into unplayable territory.
Back in 2016, Perez swiped 34 bags and delivered 13 long balls with a .272/.302/.428 slash line in 430 trips to the plate for the Brewers. But that has proven to be a high-water mark. Last year, he managed only a .228/.252/.379 batting line in 246 plate appearances.
While it’s easy to envision the Cubs finding a role for Perez, particularly with an extra roster spot and a few recent infield stalwarts departing the team earlier in the winter, the organization will want to see him earn a job in camp. Beyond the need to make strides with the bat, he’ll need to show he can reverse a worrying drop in sprint speed. After hovering in the 80th percentile range, Perez fell to the 55.9th percentile in 2019.
Padres To Sign Kyle Barraclough
The Padres have agreed to a minors deal with righty Kyle Barraclough, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). It includes an invitation to participate in the MLB side of spring camp.
Barraclough has at times tantalized with his talent as a late-inning reliever, including a run of success to open his career with the Marlins, but he has been wholly inconsistent. He spent much of 2019 with the Nationals, who jettisoned him after 25 2/3 innings of 6.66 ERA ball.
After landing with the Giants, Barraclough allowed only a pair of runs in eight innings. But he also issued nine walks to go with ten strikeouts, continuing a career-long battle with free passes and convincing the team to allow him to reach the open market at season’s end. Now, the division-rival Friars will take a low-risk shot at getting Barraclough back to being an effective hurler.
Brewers Sign Ryon Healy
The Brewers announced a one-year deal with corner infielder Ryon Healy. Financial terms aren’t known. Healy had been cut loose by the Mariners at the outset of the offseason.
Healy will presumably be given a shot at earning a role in camp — if he can show he’s at full health. He’s still working back to full health after an injury-wrecked 2019 season that ended with hip surgery in August. Just when he’ll be fully able to contribute remains to be seen.
28 in January, Healy offers plenty of pop. He swatted 31 home runs in his 711 total plate appearances with the Mariners and might well have delivered more had he been able to participate more fully in the offensively charged 2019 environment. But Healy maintained a miserable .280 on-base percentage in Seattle.
The Brewers will surely hope that Healy can find a way to gain in the OBP department. He has never drawn many walks but also doesn’t strike out a ton. Healy carried lofty BABIP numbers on his way up the farm and in his early career with the Athletics, but fell off upon moving up the coast to the M’s. Statcast figures indicate that Healy may have been a bit unfortunate of late, perhaps bolstering the idea of taking a shot on him.
Defense isn’t seen as a strong suit for Healy, who has graded poorly at both first and third base to this point in his career. To what extend he’s seen as an option at the hot corner remains to be seen. The Brewers have shown a willingness to take chances on defensively suspect sluggers in recent years, relying in part upon advanced shifting to help cover for less-than-elite glovework.
Cardinals Sign Kwang-hyun Kim
3:57pm: The Cards have introduced Kim. It’s a two-year, $8MM deal, Goold tweets. Kim can also achieve up to $1.5MM in incentives in each year of the contract, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The deal includes protection against a minor-league demotion, per Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap (via Twitter).
1:28pm: The Cardinals have struck a deal with Korean pitcher Kwang-hyun Kim, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). Contract details aren’t yet known, but a formal introduction has already been scheduled.
It emerged yesterday that Kim was not only in talks with the Cards, but had traveled to St. Louis in an effort to finalize a contract. While the seriousness of the interest was pretty clear, we now have a final resolution.
Long considered one of the most talented hurlers in his native South Korea, Kim nearly came to the majors way back in 2014. While the Padres were willing to pay a $2MM posting fee, the club couldn’t work out a contract with Kim.
Under the current posting system, every team in baseball was free to negotiate with Kim once his former club, SK Wyverns, decided to make him available. Rather than an up-front fee, the amount is determined in reference to the contract itself. Presuming that this contract includes less than $25MM in guaranteed money, the Cards will pay twenty percent of the total value to SK Wyverns.
Kim has long been a productive hurler in his native Korea. Though he has had some health issues at times, he’s coming off of a full 2019 campaign. While offense was down across the Korea Baseball Organization, Kim still stood out for his 190 1/3 innings of 2.51 ERA ball. He recorded 180 strikeouts against 38 walks on the year.
It’s not yet clear how the Cards intend to utilize Kim. Long a starter in the KBO, he certainly could be given a shot in the rotation, though doing so would likely mean bumping Carlos Martinez back into the bullpen. It’s possible the club will simply allow both pitchers to stretch out in camp and then hold off on a decision until the season arrives.
Diamondbacks Sign Madison Bumgarner
DECEMBER 17: The deal is now official.
Zach Buchanan of The Athletic reports further details on the contract structure (Twitter links). Bumgarner will earn just $6MM in 2020 before receiving successive salaries of $19MM, $23MM, $23MM, and $14MM. In each of the middle three campaigns, $5MM is deferred without interest. That money will be paid out in 2025-27.
DECEMBER 15: The Diamondbacks are closing in on a five-year deal that will bring free agent left-hander Madison Bumgarner to Arizona, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. The deal comes with an $85MM guarantee, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal adding that $15MM of that total will come in the form of deferred payments. Per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, the deal also includes a limited no-trade clause that allows Bumgarner to block trades to five teams.
It’s a somewhat surprising conclusion to Bumgarner’s first trip through free agency; while the 30-year-old had garnered well-documented interest from big-market teams like the Dodgers and Braves, the Diamondbacks were given relatively little attention as one of the teams pursuing the lefty. However, it seems that this match may have been motivated in part by the player’s interest in a team: Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic speculates that Bumgarner may have had larger offers on the table, but the geographic attraction of Arizona placed the Diamondbacks atop his list. In adding Bumgarner for $85MM, the Diamondbacks have handed out the second-largest contract in franchise history, behind only the mega-deal that brought Zack Greinke to the D-Backs prior to 2015.
And the price tag may look a bit low for Bumgarner, who was said to have his sights set on a nine-figure contract this winter. That seemed increasingly likely once the Phillies doled out $118MM to Zack Wheeler. Bumgarner is less than a year older than Wheeler and owns an undeniably stronger track record — interestingly, Bumgarner already had two championship rings by the time Wheeler made his MLB debut — but the disparity is indicative of teams’ belief in Wheeler’s projection, whereas Bumgarner’s best days could already be behind him. MLBTR had predicted that MadBum would end up with a four-year, $72MM deal. The actual contract adds another guaranteed season at a lesser rate of pay.
It may be that Bumgarner could have topped $100MM had he signed elsewhere. His reps gave other organizations the sense there there were multiple offers at that level, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Bumgarner evidently preferred to land in Arizona.
The Diamondbacks are clearly optimistic about Bumgarner’s future. While his numbers have certainly dipped noticeably from his stellar 2011-2016 span, Bumgarner is still a solid, reliable starter who has churned out 200-plus innings on a yearly basis. In 2019, his 3.90 ERA was the worst mark he’s posted in his career, but his strikeout rate reached its highest point since 2016. His home/road splits have been a noteworthy point of contention for those debating his value; having spent his entire career in the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park, it’s fair to question how well he would fare in a different ballpark. With just a 35.8% groundball rate and a hard-hit rate that ranks in only the 10th percentile, skeptics may project an uptick in home runs outside of San Francisco.
Of course, we can’t discuss Madison Bumgarner without chronicling his legendary postseason ledger: during the heyday of the Giants’ early-2010s dynasty, MadBum tossed 102 1/3 innings of 2.11-ERA ball in October, including a 2014 run in which he shouldered the San Francisco pitching staff and worked 21 innings in the World Series alone.
With Bumgarner departing San Francisco after turning down the qualifying offer, the Giants will acquire a complementary draft choice in the 2020 draft, which adds to a healthy stable of picks that includes compensation received for Will Smith‘s departure. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, will surrender their third-highest draft pick as an additional cost for signing Bumgarner.
Much to the dismay of the San Francisco faithful, Bumgarner will remain the NL West, where he’ll face his former club several times every year. If it’s any consolation, Bumgarner won’t be donning Dodger blue when he makes his return. Still, the $17MM AAV that Bumgarner will earn over the next five years is certainly affordable and calls into question just how hard the Giants pushed to retain Bumgarner, even at a reasonable price. Giants fans can certainly be forgiven if there’s frustration that a franchise icon won’t spend his entire career with the team that drafted him.
Additionally, it’s possible that adding Bumgarner might afford the D-Backs greater freedom to explore trading lefty Robbie Ray, who has by now grown tired of hearing his name rumored in trades. He’s expected to earn just about $11MM in 2020, and with the Bumgarner signing representing another top-flight pitching option flying off the market, there’s a chance that pitcher-needy contenders, growing anxious at the shrinking supply of starters, could be more willing to pony up a shiny return for Ray. Even without Ray, the D-Backs’ starting rotation looks like a point of strength: Bumgarner will join rookie standout Zac Gallen, Luke Weaver, Mike Leake, and Merrill Kelly in the projected opening day rotation. Jon Duplantier and Corbin Martin, acquired in the deal that sent Greinke to Houston, loom as other options to contend for starts.
Nationals, Daniel Hudson Remain Apart On Contract Length
3:30pm: It seems the Nats are potentially willing to offer more than one season, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports via Twitter. But with Hudson already sitting on multi-year interest from other clubs, it’s not clear how far the D.C. organization will chase the market.
12:18pm: The Nationals are still hoping to bring right-hander Daniel Hudson back for the 2020 season, but the two sides remain apart on the length of the contract, reports Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter links). Hudson’s reps at Jet Sports are seeking a multi-year deal after the 32-year-old flamethrower stabilized the Nats’ bullpen and eventually closed out the World Series, but the team has been more focused on a one-year arrangement.
Hudson, who’ll turn 33 in March, was a somewhat quiet deadline pickup for the Nationals but was thrust into the closer’s spotlightwhen Sean Doolittle went down with an injury. Hudson thrived as he was placed into higher-leverage situations, ultimately pitching to a 1.44 ERA with a 23-to-4 K/BB ratio (two intentional walks) in 25 regular-season frames to finish out the year. He tacked on another 9 2/3 innings in the postseason, yielding four runs with a 10-to-4 K/BB ratio (with almost all of the damage against him coming in one three-run outing). Along the way, he averaged 96.4 mph on his fastball.
A multi-year deal for Hudson doesn’t seem like an unreasonable ask — particularly given the market for free-agent relievers to this point. Six relievers — Drew Pomeranz, Will Smith, Chris Martin, Joe Smith, Jake Diekman and Joely Rodriguez — have already inked multi-year contracts this winter, and Hudson is among the most obvious multi-year candidates that has yet to sign. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $12MM pact for Hudson to return to the Nationals at the outset of free agency.
Dougherty suggests that the Nationals’ general preference is to keep relievers over 30 to one-year contracts, though the Nats haven’t exactly demonstrated a strict adherence to that apparent preference in recent years. Washington acquired Doolittle and Ryan Madson in July 2017 when both were over 30 and had an additional year remaining on their contract, for instance, and in the past four years they’ve handed out multi-year free-agent deals to right-handers Brandon Kintzler (two years, $10MM) and Shawn Kelley (three years, $15MM). Hudson’s injury history, of course, has to be taken into consideration when weighing a multi-year deal. The right-hander already has a pair of Tommy John surgeries on his record (although that was also true of Kelley when he signed).
Twins To Hire Mike Bell As Bench Coach
The Twins will hire Diamondbacks farm director/vice president of player development Mike Bell as their new bench coach, per Ken Rosenthal, Zach Buchanan and Eno Sarris of The Athletic (Twitter link). He’ll be stepping into the void left by Derek Shelton when he was hired as manager of the Pirates. Bell, the younger brother of Reds manager David Bell, was a managerial candidate himself this winter. He interviewed with the Mets and was also reportedly considered for the Pirates gig that eventually went to Shelton.
The 44-year-old also interviewed with both the Rangers and the Orioles last offseason, so it stands to reason that the Twins could be making a hire who’ll draw managerial interest again in the near future. The 2019 season was his third as the Diamondbacks’ farm director, but Bell previously served as the team’s director of player development and spent another three years as a minor league manager. In all, he’s been with the D-backs as a minor league skipper or a front office executive for a total of 13 years.
A former third baseman, Bell was a first-round pick of the Rangers back in 1993 and is the son of five-time MLB All-Star Buddy Bell, who also managed in parts of nine MLB seasons with the Tigers, Rockies and Royals.
Bell isn’t the only notable hire for the Twins in recent days, however. Kendall Rogers of D1Baseball.com tweets that Minnesota has hired UC Santa Barbara hitting coach Donegal Fergus as their new minor league hitting coordinator. The Twins haven’t been shy about dipping into the college coaching ranks to fill out key positions in their organization recently, with second-year pitching coach Wes Johnson (formerly the pitching coach at Arkansas) standing out as the most notable hire to date.
Brewers Sign Avisail Garcia
The Brewers have finalized their third free-agent signing of the past week, announcing Tuesday that they’ve agreed to a two-year contract with outfielder Avisail Garcia. The Mato Sports Management client will reportedly be guaranteed a total of $20MM and can earn up to $30MM if a 2021 club option is exercised.
The contract is said to come with a $500K signing bonus, a $7MM salary in 2020 and a $10.5MM salary in 2021. The $12MM club option contains a $2MM buyout and can be converted to a mutual option if Garcia reaches 550 plate appearances in 2021 or totals 1050 plate appearances over the first two seasons of the contract.
“Avisaíl provides an impactful right-handed hitting force in our lineup,” president of baseball operations David Stearns said in a press release. “Adding him to our current group of outfielders strengthens what was already one of the strongest outfields in baseball.”
This move represents the first big move on the corner outfield market. Garcia ends up getting the two-year deal that MLBTR predicted, but at a greater rate of pay than we had supposed. The contract sets an important market marker for fellow youthful, right-handed-hitting corner pieces Nicholas Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna, and Yasiel Puig.
Garcia actually received three-year offers, including from Milwaukee, according to Heyman. But he preferred the shorter pact, with the idea being that he will have a shot at returning to free agency in the first year of a new CBA. Whether that proves an optimal time to reenter the market remains to be seen, but Garcia — who won’t turn 29 until next June — will certainly still be rather young at that time.
This time last year, Garcia settled for a one-year bounceback deal with the Rays after he struggled through an injury-limited 2018 campaign. He made good on the contract, turning in 530 plate appearances of .282/.332/.464 hitting with twenty home runs, though that didn’t represent a full return to his breakout ’17 effort (.330/.380/.506).
The Brewers are betting that Garcia can at least replicate his showing last year in Tampa Bay. He graded well with the glove and has surprisingly outstanding sprint speed. While he doesn’t walk much, Garcia doesn’t strike out a ton and has shown he can hit for a high average. It’s certainly possible to envision the talented player putting it all together and delivering a star-caliber performance in Milwaukee.
Despite two-straight postseason appearances, the Brewers have taken an aggressive approach to turning over their roster this winter. The club now has a bit of an overload in the outfield, although the Brewers are generally aggressive in terms of rotating players through multiple positions. Per MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (Twitter link), manager Craig Counsell has informed Garcia that the team plans to utilize him in left field and in center field next season, with Ryan Braun moving around (i.e. spending time at first base) in order to accommodate the new arrangement. Garcia also has ample experience in right field, which could help to ease the burden on Christian Yelich early in the year as he returns from a season-ending patella fracture.
Jose F. Rivera of ESPN Deportes broke the news that the two sides were close to an agreement. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported the agreement and terms (via Twitter). USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the annual breakdown (Twitter links).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Royals Sign Braden Shipley
The Royals announced Tuesday that they’ve signed right-hander Braden Shipley to a minor league contract. The former first-rounder and top prospect will presumably be in Major League Spring Training as a non-roster invitee. MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets that he’ll make $600K if he cracks the MLB roster.
Now 28 years old, Shipley was the 15th overall pick by the D-backs in the 2013 draft and ranked among baseball’s 100 best prospects in each of his first three pro seasons, per Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus. But after strong showings up through the Double-A level, Shipley’s strikeout rate began to deteriorate while his walks increased. He received big league looks from the Diamondbacks each season from 2016-18 but scuffled in each showing, ultimately compiling a 5.49 ERA with 5.8 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 1.71 HR/9 and a 42.9 percent ground-ball rate through an even 100 innings in the big leagues.
Shipley has worked both as a starter and a reliever during his pro career, showing greater velocity and swinging-strike tendencies when working out of the bullpen. He’ll give the Kansas City organization some depth in either role and will likely head to Triple-A Omaha to begin the season if he doesn’t crack the roster.