Astros Accused Of Illegal Use Of Technology To Steal Signs
Nov. 14: Major League Baseball is planning to talk to Red Sox manager Alex Cora and newly minted Mets skipper Carlos Beltran about the issue, Rosenthal and Drellich further report (subscription required). Both were on the 2017 Astros — Cora as bench coach and Beltran in the final season of his playing career. Beltran firmly denied any knowledge of the system in a statement to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds that the league has already interviewed former Astros bullpen coach Craig Bjornson, who joined Cora with the Red Sox. MLB is making its best effort to gather “tangible evidence,” Passan writes, and will “consider levying long suspensions” to those who are found to have lied during the interview process.
Nov. 12: The Astros have come under scrutiny once again, this time on the heels of an in-depth report by Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic (subscription required), wherein four former employees, including right-hander Mike Fiers, detailed an extensive sign-stealing operation enacted by the team during the 2017 season. Stealing signs in a traditional sense — such as a runner on second base watching the catcher and attempting to discern the pitch that has been called — is generally accepted as part of the game. Utilizing technology to aid in that effort, however, is expressly forbidden by the league.
The Astros, per the report, would utilize a center-field camera fixated on the catcher and a television monitor placed in the clubhouse tunnel near the dugout steps to try to decode an opponent’s signs. An Astros employee or player would then at times signal the type of pitch that was coming with a loud sound — typically banging on a trash can to alert the hitter of an offspeed or breaking pitch. Fiers, who was non-tendered by Houston following the 2017 season, confirmed that setup when interviewed by The Athletic. He added that upon leaving the organization, he warned his future Tigers and Athletics teammates of the practice.
“I just want the game to be cleaned up a little bit because there are guys who are losing their jobs because they’re going in there not knowing,” Fiers explained to The Athletic. “Young guys getting hit around in the first couple of innings starting a game, and then they get sent down. It’s (B.S.) on that end. It’s ruining jobs for younger guys.”
Fiers may have been in the Houston dugout during that 2017 season, but opponents on the pitcher’s mound weren’t totally in the dark. Recently retired reliever Danny Farquhar detailed a late-2017 appearance during which he caught wind of what was taking place, telling The Athletic: “There was a banging from the dugout, almost like a bat hitting the bat rack every time a changeup signal got put down. After the third one, I stepped off. I was throwing some really good changeups and they were getting fouled off. After the third bang, I stepped off.”
As one might expect in 2019, it didn’t take long for someone to find video footage of the incident in question. Lucas Apostoleris of Baseball Prospectus quickly found the appearance referenced by Farquhar (Twitter link), and the sound of the banging detailed by Farquhar can be heard quite clearly in the included video link.
It’s worth emphasizing that electronic sign stealing is widely believed to extend beyond the walls of Houston’s Minute Maid Park. As Rosenthal and Drellich explore, concerns surrounding the potential stealing of signs via technology aren’t necessarily unique to the Houston organization. Teams are increasingly wary that other clubs are utilizing technology to gain a competitive edge and steal signs, with one anonymous MLB manager telling The Athletic that such habits “permeate” the league and that MLB has done a “very poor job” policing the issue.
The league did fine the Red Sox during the 2017 season for illegal use of an Apple Watch in their home dugout, though there have not been any other publicized instances of league-issued discipline regarding technology-driven sign stealing. The investigation that led to the sanction of the Red Sox stemmed from a complaint filed by the Yankees, which the Red Sox countered with their own complaint alleging that the Yankees had utilized a YES Network camera to steal signs from Boston. Distrust between other organizations is surely prevalent throughout the league.
After the Red Sox were fined in 2017, commissioner Rob Manfred intimated that stricter punishments would be levied for future violations of this nature (link via the Associated Press): “All 30 clubs have been notified that future violations of this type will be subject to more serious sanctions, including the possible loss of draft picks.”
This isn’t the first time that the Astros, specifically, have been accused of stealing signs; a man with ties to the Astros organization, Kyle McLaughlin, was caught taking pictures near the Indians and Red Sox dugouts during the 2018 postseason. At the time, the Astros claimed that they were trying to ensure that those clubs weren’t utilizing illegal and/or unethical measures to gain an advantage. They were cleared of any rule violations by the league. A year later, during the 2019 ALCS, Houston manager A.J. Hinch scoffed at the notion that their players were whistling to call out the Yankees’ signs, calling any such accusations “a joke.” General manager Jeff Lunnow, at the time, told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle:
“We haven’t done anything wrong. If people want to make their own conclusions based on what little evidence there is out there — really just rumors, speculations and accusations without any names behind it — that’s their prerogative. I’m not concerned because I know how we behave and how we act. We’re not doing anything wrong.”
Today, the Astros offered the following statement in reference to the report from Rosenthal and Drellich:
“Regarding the story posted by The Athletic earlier today, the Houston Astros organization has begun an investigation in cooperation with Major League Baseball. It would not be appropriate to comment further on this matter at this time.”
Asked to personally comment on the matter today at the GM Meetings, Luhnow told a large contingent of reporters that the organization will cooperate with any investigations but declined further comment (Twitter link via Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune).
Jake Odorizzi ‘Strongly Considering’ Twins’ Qualifying Offer
Starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi is “strongly considering” accepting his qualifying offer from the Twins, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (link). If he accepts, Odorizzi would be set to earn $17.8MM in 2020. Final qualifying offer decisions are due by 4 pm CST this afternoon.
If Odorizzi ultimately decides to return to Minnesota under the auspices of the one-year QO, it will stand as one of the early surprises of the offseason. Although the right-hander faces some stiff competition from fellow free-agent starting pitchers on the open market, it seemed at the offseason’s outset that the former Ray could represent the very best of the market’s “third tier” of starters (following, arguably, after the triumvirate of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Madison Bumgarner, and Zack Wheeler). While our free agent predictions from earlier this month did predict the 29-year-old would remain in Minnesota, his relative youth and recent production were factors in our projection of a three-year, $51MM open-market reward.
Even considering Odorizzi’s current status of contemplation, that hypothetical pact still projects as a relatively reasonable package of compensation for an under-30 starter coming off a 2019 season that resounded as a career-best. After two lackluster campaigns in ’17 and ’18, this past season saw the Illinois native record career bests in both strikeout rate (10.1 K/9) and fielding independent metrics (3.36 FIP through 159 innings) while leading a staff that helped secure an AL Central crown.
And, to be fair, it’s not as if Odorizzi’s success was exactly “out of nowhere”: between his 2015 and 2016 seasons with Tampa, the righty notched a 3.53 ERA across 81 starts. For all intents and purposes, Odorizzi’s 2019 breakouts simply seemed like a case of a formerly well-regarded youngster righting the ship after a few seasons of mid-career adjustment; add in a legitimate year-over-year jump in fastball velocity (from an average of 91.1 mph in 2018 to 92.9 mph this past season, per Statcast), and it appeared as if the hurler actually promised something of a value play to teams unwilling to enter the luxury aisle for free agent starting pitchers this offseason.
Odorizzi’s decision suddenly looms as one of the more interesting ripple effects to watch in advance of the QO deadline this afternoon. His return to the Twins would, for one, go a long way toward clearing up the club’s murky rotation picture–even if Odorizzi remains in the fold, the club would likely still need to add one (or perhaps two) starting options. Meanwhile, free agents like Kyle Gibson, Cole Hamels, and Julio Teheran would seem to gain leverage from having one less arm above them in the open-market pecking order.
Hyun-Jin Ryu Hoping For Three- Or Four-Year Deal
After accepting a one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer last winter, lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu is slated to fully explore the open market for the first time in his career. The NL Cy Young runner-up won’t have the burden of draft-pick compensation attached to his name, as he would’ve had he rejected last year’s offer, and he told reporters in his native South Korea this week that he’s hoping to sign a three- or four-year deal wherever he lands (link via Jee-Ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency).
Ryu’s decision to accept that qualifying offer looks to have paid off in spades, as the southpaw not only took home a rather hefty one-year salary in 2019 but also strengthened his open-market case with the finest season of his Major League career. In 29 starts and a total of 182 2/3 innings, Ryu worked to a pristine 2.32 ERA (3.10 FIP, 3.32 xFIP) with 8.0 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, 0.84 HR/9 and a 50.4 percent ground-ball rate. He may very well have won the NL Cy Young Award had it not been for a brief IL trip due to discomfort in his neck and some ensuing struggles in his return. Ryu yielded 21 runs (45 percent of his season total) in a span of 19 innings from Aug. 17 through Sept. 4 before rebounding with a trio of strong, seven-inning outings to close out the season.
At this point, Ryu says he’s entrusting agent Scott Boras to handle everything pertaining to his free agency, although Ryu did add that he doesn’t believe there have been many talks about a reunion with the Dodgers. That could change quickly, of course, and the Dodgers will surely gauge the asking price and market competition for Ryu — as they figure to do with virtually every free agent of note. Ryu also expressed gratitude in reference to recent comments made by countryman Shin-Soo Choo, who last week revealed that he’d pushed the Texas front office to look into signing Ryu. The 32-year-old Ryu (33 in March) said it would be “special” to play with a fellow Korean on the same big league club.
Whether a three- or four-year deal is possible will of course depend on the competition for Ryu’s services this winter. He ranks among the best available in terms of sheer talent, as evidenced by the otherworldly 2.21 ERA he’s notched in his past 265 big league innings dating back to Opening Day 2018. But Ryu’s next contract will begin with his age-33 campaign, and he carries with him an extensive injury history that’ll give plenty of teams pause.
Ryu had Tommy John surgery before he was even drafted in the Korea Baseball Organization, and he’s had a pair of surgeries since jumping to MLB as well: a shoulder operation to repair his labrum in 2015 and an elbow debridement procedure in 2016. Ryu pitched just 4 2/3 MLB innings from 2015-16 as a result of those two surgeries. He’s also had some hip troubles in the past, and in 2018 he was limited to 82 2/3 innings after suffering a gruesome injury when he tore a muscle in his groin clear off the bone.
Durability and age are the clearest red flags for Ryu as he and Boras look for a new contract this winter, but the lefty is one of the most impactful arms on the market. For a team that is reluctant to surrender draft picks by inking pitchers who received a qualifying offer, he’s the best available option. Ryu ranked ninth on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent rankings earlier this month (wherein we predicted a three-year, $54MM deal with the Rangers).
Reds To Give Consideration To Qualifying Offer Recipients
Following a 2018-2019 offseason that saw the club focus primarily on pitching additions, offensive improvement is expected to be a chief initiative for the Reds this winter. With that goal in mind, the club will not rule out signing free agents attached to a qualifying offer this offseason, as team president of baseball operations Dick Williams indicated at this week’s GM Meetings (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer).
Although signing a QO-laden free agent would require the Reds to forfeit their third-highest pick in the 2020 First-Year Player Draft, the club does not apparently view that cost as strictly prohibitive:
“We’re very aware of the guys who will have rejected qualifying offers and what that means for the economics of what we’re willing to pay,” Williams said. “I think that’s how the system is set up. That is something we’ll definitely factor in. It doesn’t prevent us from talking to any player. We don’t look at it that way.”
This public stance is especially pertinent considering today marks the deadline for qualifying offer recipients to accept or decline their QO. Four of the ten players who received offers are position players, including first baseman Jose Abreu, third baseman Josh Donaldson, outfielder Marcell Ozuna, and third baseman Anthony Rendon. Given that Cincinnatti’s needs at first and third are likely to be handled by Eugenio Suarez and Joey Votto for the next several years, Ozuna may be left as the presumptive reference point to Williams’ comments.
The early market for Ozuna, in particular, has been said to potentially feature as many as a quarter of MLB teams, perhaps revealing that, like the Reds, clubs are feeling slightly less gunshy about this year’s crop of QO-attached free agents overall. Cincinnati has a wide array of potential avenues to explore in improving their cast of position players, with the outfield, catcher, and second base spots all likely to receive some level of attention this winter.
Quiet Early Market For Ken Giles
Blue Jays reliever Ken Giles seemingly factors as a big potential trade piece. But the market isn’t bouncing with early interest in the righty, per Scott Mitchell of TSN (Twitter link).
That’s somewhat surprising to hear, given that teams weighing the open-market options don’t have many premium relief arms to consider. With Aroldis Chapman re-upping before the onset of free agency, Will Smith stands as the top available arm. If he declines his qualifying offer, he’ll come with draft compensation.
Teams seeking a true shutdown closer with loud stuff wouldn’t seem to have many other places to turn. But Mitchell says the Jays don’t anticipate interest building until some dominoes fall in free agency.
Giles had a hiccup-laden 2018 season but rebounded with aplomb in the just-completed campaign, turning in 53 frames of 1.87 ERA pitching with an eye-popping combination of 14.1 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. Giles throws hard and gets loads of swings and misses. And the 29-year-old is projected to earn a reasonable $8.4MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility.
It may be that teams already have a good sense of what the Toronto organization is seeking. Giles was talked about extensively heading into the trade deadline, even after a barking elbow diminished his standing. That health situation may still be of some concern as well, though Giles didn’t seem to have much rust after the trade deadline. Over the final two months of the season, he racked up a 25:6 K/BB ratio and allowed only five earned runs on ten hits in 18 innings of work.
Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks
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The Diamondbacks feature quite a few roster chameleons, giving the team plenty of options this winter as it seeks to pursue immediate competitiveness without muddying the long-term outlook.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Ketel Marte: $21MM through 2022 (including buyouts of 2023-24 options)
- Yasmany Tomas: $17MM through 2020
- Eduardo Escobar: $14.5MM through 2021
- Mike Leake: $6MM through 2020 (Cardinals & Mariners pay remainder of contract, including $9MM of salary and $5MM buyout of 2021 option)
- Merrill Kelly: $3.5MM through 2020 (including buyout of 2021 option)
- Diamondbacks also owe $20.667MM of salary to Zack Greinke through 2021
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Taijuan Walker – $5.025MM
- David Peralta – $8.8MM
- Steven Souza Jr. – $4.125MM
- Nick Ahmed – $7.0MM
- Jake Lamb – $5.0MM
- Caleb Joseph – $1.2MM
- Andrew Chafin -$3.2MM
- Robbie Ray – $10.8MM
- Archie Bradley – $3.6MM
- Matt Andriese – $1.4MM
- Abraham Almonte – $900K (already outrighted)
- Non-tender candidates: Peralta, Souza, Lamb, Andriese, Almonte
Free Agents
- Alex Avila, Jarrod Dyson, Wilmer Flores (declined $6MM option in favor of $500K buyout), Yoshihisa Hirano, Adam Jones, Blake Swihart
[Arizona Diamondbacks depth chart | Arizona Diamondbacks payroll outlook]
We heaped on the praise when the D-Backs announced they had re-upped GM Mike Hazen, and for good reason. He came into a tough spot and has both produced a competitive MLB team and improved the team’s talent pipeline. Shrewd moves abound — chief among them: acquiring and then locking up Ketel Marte before his breakout — even if they haven’t all been winners.
The Diamondbacks have played generally winning baseball in a wholesome and sustainable manner. That’s nice. But they were swept out of their 2017 postseason appearance and haven’t been back since. The Dodgers may not have swum in the Snakes’ pool of late, but they still haven’t let anyone join them in the NL West deep end since they splashed around Chase Field in 2013. And it isn’t as if the L.A. organization has monopolized the division through spending alone; it’s doing it in a cost-efficient manner that’s all the more fearsome for the teams chasing them from afar. If nobody is even nipping at their heels, the Dodgers will just keep cruising.
If the D-Backs are to force the issue in the division, or at least to stand out a bit in a crowded NL wild card picture, they will need both to continue making cost-efficient improvements and to find a way to make a Marte-esque leap. They don’t need to rush out and do another Greinke deal, by any means, but as presently constituted the roster is more solid than good — and that’s assuming healthy campaigns from some players that have had recent injury issues. Hazen still hasn’t promised double-digit millions in a single free agent contract. That seems likely to change this winter.
Looking at the payroll, there’s about $47.5MM written in ink. The arbitration outlay will probably more than double that starting point — if every eligible player is tendered. The Snakes can shear about $9MM if they move on from Jake Lamb and Steven Souza … and double that if they were to non-tender or trade David Peralta. If all three are cut loose, the club would have a few additional holes to deal with but could also have over $30MM in free payroll to play with — assuming the team is again comfortable opening with over $120MM on the books. The D-Backs don’t really have any true blue-chip prospects to use as trade assets, but the club has drawn praise for possessing an especially nice volume of farm talent. That should leave a lot of pieces to work with in trade talks.
So where is the work to be done? Not in the rotation, arguably. The D-Backs have turned over much of their starting staff since this time last year. Robbie Ray is the only holdover from before the 2018-19 offseason. The club brought aboard Luke Weaver and Merrill Kelly before the 2019 season and then added Zac Gallen and Mike Leake during that just-finished campaign. It’s not likely to be an overwhelming unit, but the spots seem ably accounted for. The Snakes surely feel they filled in the gaps when they picked up Gallen and Leake over the summer. The Gallen swap looks like a potential heist, though he’ll need to repeat his stunning breakout season and the Marlins surely feel good about what they saw from prospect Jazz Chisholm after picking him up in the deal. Leake can serve the part of veteran innings eater, joining Kelly to deliver a volume of serviceable frames. Ray is a bit of a wild card but is the kind of strikeout pitcher that teams dream on, while Weaver is coming back from injury but turned in a dozen sterling starts in 2019.
So, should the D-Backs go looking for a nice upside play and/or some depth in free agency? Not necessarily. There’s more to the rotation picture. The uber-talented Taijuan Walker will be working back from Tommy John surgery, with hopes he’ll be available for a good portion of the season. Corbin Martin is doing the same, though he’s unlikely to return before later in the year and is probably not a major factor in the 2020 planning. Jon Duplantier got his first taste of the majors last year and will surely be a factor. Taylor Clarke and Alex Young are among the 40-man roster pieces that contributed last year and can again be called upon; J.B. Bukauskas and Taylor Widener are perhaps the most promising upper-level prospects, though both had less-than-ideal results in 2019.
Some of those arms will spill over to the bullpen; Duplantier and Clarke each spent time there last season. But there’s some work to be done in the relief unit. Archie Bradley, Andrew Chafin, and mid-season callup Kevin Ginkel make for a nice trio of arms. Yoan Lopez and Stefan Chricton both got the job done in 2019, though the former had questionable peripherals and the latter has to prove he can do it over a full campaign. Matt Andriese suffered from the BABIP blues and could be asked back, though it’ll cost a bit. Otherwise, it’s Jimmie Sherfy and the leftover starters — good for a band name, but questionable for a contending pen.
There isn’t an overwhelming amount of need, but the D-Backs sure could stand to add at least one established, high-quality reliever to this mix. Having utilized Bradley in a flexible manner in recent years, with the closing job being occupied mostly by short-term signees, the team seems a likely bet to once more lure a veteran to the desert with promises of 9th-inning glory. We posited the club as a potential buyer of top-class relievers in compiling our list of the top 50 free agents, though we ultimately predicted a relatively low-cost accord with the sturdy and experienced Steve Cishek. This is certainly an area the team can spend on, particularly if it ticks off other needs at lower-than-expected expense, though the market isn’t exactly laden with high-end arms. The D-Backs could take a risk on a hurler like Dellin Betances and/or explore trade options.
On the position-player side, Hazen could go in quite a few different directions. Let’s start with what is in place. Carson Kelly will be the primary backstop, with Caleb Joseph and/or some other veteran (the Snakes like to carry three catchers) supplementing him. Marte can be lined up in center or at second base alongside shortstop Nick Ahmed. Either way, two of the three slots up the middle are accounted for. At the infield corners, Eduardo Escobar is a fixture while Christian Walker and Kevin Cron can be called upon at first base pending the arrival of Seth Beer. There’s room for a left-handed-hitting reserve in the mold of Lamb, who seems unlikely to be retained at his arb price point after two consecutive forgettable campaigns. And in the outfield, the D-Backs could rely upon Souza and David Peralta for a big chunk of the action … or they could move one or both of those not-insignificant salaries and go in a different direction entirely.
The Snakes gave a lot of plate appearances to light-hitting performers last year. Lamb, Adam Jones, Jarrod Dyson, Tim Locastro, Ildemaro Vargas, Josh Rojas, and Blake Swihart combined for nearly two thousand trips to the dish; not one was within a dozen points of league average by measure of wRC+. It’s not a stretch to imagine Locastro, Vargas, and/or Rojas playing significant roles in 2020 and beyond. Ditto utility infielder Domingo Leyba. But the Snakes can’t afford to settle for that level of offensive output from such a major segment of the roster. They’ll need to fill in for the departing players and avoiding asking too much of those that remain from this list.
So, how to proceed? There are two key factors to consider here: Marte’s positional malleability and the payroll/roster flexibility in the corner outfield (and to some extent also at first base). With bench space to work with as well, there are quite a few ways in which the club could seek improvement. It was interesting to hear Hazen suggest recently that the team prefers Marte at second base. It would be easier to fill that spot from outside the organization, given the multitude of possibilities, but it appears the Snakes are likeliest to chase after a center fielder.
Put it all together, and it seems the overall focus is squarely on the outfield grass. Asked recently about Shogo Akiyama, Hazen revealed some level of interest in the Japanese center fielder. The meandering nature of the quote also served to underscore the wide-open nature of the offseason. “We think he’s a good player,” says Hazen of Akiyama. ” … We’re in the outfield market, the center-field market specifically. We’re in the entire market.”
The D-Backs do have some options up the middle, especially if they like Akiyama even more than they’ve already let on. He is arguably the only truly intriguing option on the open market, at least unless Brett Gardner considers a departure from the Yankees. But there are some trade possibilities. Starling Marte is the central focus on the trade market. He’ll be sought after by quite a few other teams as well, but there’s an argument to be made that he fits in just the right space (two years of affordable but not cheap control) for the D-Backs. It’s also possible to imagine the club looking at a few other possibilities. Old friend Ender Inciarte could conceivably be made available, depending upon how things develop in Atlanta. And Jackie Bradley Jr. figures to be dangled by the Red Sox; acquiring him might help quench Hazen’s insatiable thirst for Boston products. (We kid, but there’s no shortage of examples.) If the D-Backs can’t sort out an upgrade and are forced to utilize their existing Marte at times in center, they may come away with a timeshare veteran in the nature of Dyson, Leonys Martin, Juan Lagares, or Cameron Maybin. The club could instead utilize the speedy Locastro in such a capacity as well. Any of these fall-back possibilities would feel like a bit of a disappointment unless the Snakes end up securing other significant pieces.
None of the above-noted center field possibilities will bust the budget. Even if the Snakes score a second Marte, there should be cash left to work with to do more. And this is where things could get yet more interesting. Souza is an obvious non-tender candidate after an injury-cancelled campaign on the heels of a disastrous first year in the desert. But the Snakes could simply decide they like him better than any of the options they can get in free agency for a similar price tag. It’s actually a closer call than you might think on Peralta. He’s a rather accomplished hitter, to be sure, but the track record isn’t unassailable and he’s a 32-year-old looking to return from shoulder problems. And Peralta has long struggled against left-handed pitching. The Snakes might reasonably believe they can do more for less in trade or on the open market, though there has been no suggestion to this point that they are considering moving on.
Whether or not one or both of those players is retained — whether through arbitration or in a re-signing following a non-tender — there are many opportunities to consider. This year’s market includes a group of unusually youthful and talented corner outfielders: Nicholas Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna, Avisail Garcia, and Yasiel Puig. It isn’t hard to fall in love with some of those players’ tools; perhaps the D-Backs could consider a somewhat longer, lower-AAV contract if they like one of the group in particular. There are lefty bats in the form of Corey Dickerson, Kole Calhoun, and Yoshitomo Tsutsugo. There aren’t an immense number of obvious trade targets to consider, but the Diamondbacks could look into the likes of Trey Mancini, Clint Frazier, and perhaps even Mookie Betts or Andrew Benintendi, depending upon what the Red Sox end up pursuing. Though the Snakes have mostly worked to remove big veteran salaries, they could consider a player such as Charlie Blackmon — not that an intra-division deal is likely to be sorted out for such a fan favorite. The same issue applies to the Dodgers, who could end up with an extra outfield piece to move. Relieving the Athletics of their obligations to Stephen Piscotty could conceivably work for both teams. It’s not impossible to imagine the Mets talking about Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, or J.D. Davis. There are plenty of other possible scenarios that may be explored but are even more speculative than the ones just listed.
If that feels like relatively short-term patchwork … well, that’s pretty much what’s available. And it’s also what Hazen has done so well thus far. Putting some added financial gusto behind the effort could yield dividends. Exploring moves to bring in a star makes sense, but that’s a necessarily speculative endeavor. That approach could spill over and meld with the first base and broader bench. As noted above, the D-Backs have some younger players they like. In addition to those already listed, catcher/utilityman Daulton Varsho and first baseman/outfielder Pavin Smith could be closing in on the majors. But the former is now recovering from an ankle injury and the latter is still working to re-burnish his prospect standing.
Expecting something from the existing, younger players is sensible. But the Diamondbacks can and should reduce their reliance on them as immediate options without cutting off their paths entirely. Short-term veteran role players abound. Lefty bats seem to make particular sense given the existing array in the infield. Brock Holt is among the utility pieces that could shoulder some of the load all over the field. A lefty slugger makes tons of sense to form a platoon at first base, with Eric Thames representing the top of that market. Perhaps Mike Moustakas could reprise his surprise utility role, appearing all over the infield for the Snakes. If the Cards decide to try to shed some of Matt Carpenter‘s contract to free up payroll and roster space, perhaps the Arizona org could take a chance on the veteran and come away with another desired piece as well.
It’s frankly hard to pin down a simple task list given the adaptable roster and payroll circumstances — a credit to Hazen’s handiwork. The Snakes have some shape-shifting puzzle pieces and blank Scrabble tiles to work with. It makes for a choose-your-own-offseason decision tree that could take any number of different courses over the months to come.
Latest On Rangers’ Offseason Pursuits
The Rangers enter the winter attempting to load up on starting pitching, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes. It’s possible the club will seek to acquire three starters in some form or fashion, though GM Jon Daniels says “the number is yet to be determined.”
Just how that need will be met is awfully tough to guess at this point. We covered the club’s obvious need for multiple arms in previewing the team’s offseason situation. But as we said there, there’s such a bounty of possibility that it’s nearly impossible to pick favorites.
Daniels said as much when he chatted with the press from the GM Meetings. Beyond the “couple guys that stand out at the top” of the market, he said of this year’s free agent starters, “you can probably rank them a bunch of different ways.” The Rangers, he says, are “open to a lot of different things.”
While we don’t know whether the Rangers will gun for the elite arms, and can’t be sure who they most fancy further down the board, Wilson says the organization is aiming to land at least one “proven arm” to pair with top starters Mike Minor and Lance Lynn. In MLBTR’s top fifty free agent list, we guessed the club would come away with Hyun-jin Ryu, but we also considered the organization a plausible fit for a dozen other starters.
So, does all this talk of starting pitching mean the Rangers aren’t quite as engaged in the third base market as we predicted in the above-linked analyses? Not so much. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News explains that the club is pursuing a multi-track strategy to install a star at the hot corner.
We heard recently that the Texas organization is making a concerted push for Josh Donaldson, an older but still-excellent firebrand. But Grant says the club prefers the more youthful Texas native Anthony Rendon, who is Donaldson’s polar opposite in temperament and superior in present ability. Mike Moustakas, it seems, features as a possible backup plan.
It seems the Rangers intend to push hard on both of those premium third baggers, bidding at least until the auction price gets too steep. Presumably, this situation will tie into the pitching side, to some extent. Should the Rangers land a star, they’ll have greater cause to ensure their rotation is up to snuff. On the other hand, missing on Rendon and Donaldson would seem to leave more dry powder to work with.
Grant drops one other nugget that’s worth highlighting with regard to Donaldson. We predicted the veteran would secure a three-year guarantee at $25MM annually (and that he’d ink that deal with the Rangers). But there’s now enough market pressure, per Grant, that “there is a growing thought that to get something done quickly with him would require a fourth year or an option with a significant buyout tacked on to third year.” That’s a big ask for someone on the cusp of his 34th birthday, though Donaldson is an elite performer and we have seen four-year pacts for even older players (e.g., Ben Zobrist).
Mets Notes: CF, Bench Coach, Bullpen
Here’s the latest on the Mets:
- Although the Mets are in need of a center fielder, Japanese free agent Shogo Akiyama isn’t near the top of their list, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. This year’s free-agent class is limited in center, where Brett Gardner (who’s not even a full-time CFer) looks like the premier player available. Meanwhile, the 31-year-old Akiyama is coming off a productive nine-season run in Nippon Professional Baseball, but he’s no sure thing to succeed in the majors. And Akiyama’s a left-handed hitter, which seems to run counter to their ideal acquisition in center. The club wants a player who hits from the right side and is a better defender than Brandon Nimmo, Mike Puma of the Post tweets. Shortstop Amed Rosario‘s a righty batter, and though the team has considered moving him to center in the past, those days are gone. “I don’t see a scenario for him to be in center field,” general manager Brodie Van Wagenen said (via Sherman).
- While the Mets may not want Akiyama, they are among the teams interested in free-agent center fielder Matt Szczur, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The righty-hitting Szczur, 30, would likely be a minor league pickup, as the former Cub and Padre hasn’t appeared in the majors since 2018. He had a brutal year then in San Diego, which forced him to sign a minors pact with the Diamondbacks last offseason. Szczur batted a solid .322/.390/.577 with eight home runs in 172 plate appearances as a member of the D-backs’ top affiliate.
- Pirates third base coach Joey Cora is the latest possibility to take over as the Mets’ bench coach, per Sherman. Cora, a former major league second baseman and the brother of Red Sox manager Alex Cora, has ties to new Mets manager Carlos Beltran and special assistant Omar Minaya, Sherman notes. He managed in the Mets’ minor league system when Minaya was their GM in the early 2000s. Cora, Fredi Gonzalez and Jerry Narron are the only known candidates to become the Mets’ bench coach. Longtime San Francisco assistant Ron Wotus had been in the running, but he’ll stay with the Giants as their third base coach, Daniel Brown of The Athletic relays.
- The Mets were aggressive in trying to upgrade their bullpen last offseason, when they surrendered significant resources for Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson. The latter was the only somewhat effective member of the trio, while the struggles of Diaz and Familia played a key part in another non-playoff season for the Mets. Considering that their bullpen was a letdown this season, the Mets could again look for help in that area this winter, though Van Wagenen contends that the club’s relief corps must “largely sink or swim based on how Diaz and Familia perform,” Sherman writes. Van Wagenen suggested Diaz, Familia, Wilson, Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman are set to reprise their late-game roles, but it’s unclear who will join that quintet.
Mariners Rumors: Haniger, Gonzales
Although he’s coming off a season filled with adversity, Mariners outfielder Mitch Haniger remains an appealing trade target around the league, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). The Mariners would consider trading Haniger, but left-hander Marco Gonzales doesn’t appear to be available, per Rosenthal.
This arguably isn’t an ideal time for the Mariners to part with Haniger, whom a ruptured testicle limited to 283 plate appearances in 2019. When Haniger did play, he experienced a drop in production, as the 28-year-old hit .220/.314/.463 with 15 home runs and 1.1 fWAR. Before that, Haniger was somewhat quietly one of the majors’ most valuable outfielders from 2017-18, during which he slashed .284/.361/.492 with 42 homers and 7.0 fWAR across 1,093 trips to the plate.
As you’d expect, there was trade interest last winter in Haniger. The Mariners elected to hold him instead of selling high, though, and now he likely has less trade value after a difficult season. But Haniger still has three arbitration-eligible seasons left, and he’ll earn a projected $3MM in 2020 – factors that may help make him more intriguing than the best outfielders in this free-agent class (Nicholas Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna, Corey Dickerson and Yasiel Puig, to name a few).
As things stand, Haniger still looks like the Mariners’ preeminent outfielder, though they do have up-and-coming building blocks in Kyle Lewis and touted prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez. While Kelenic and Rodriguez aren’t ready for the bigs yet, Lewis debuted at the game’s highest level in 2019 and impressed – albeit over just 75 PA. Rookie Shed Long also encouraged, though he may be better cut out for second base. Meanwhile, regulars Mallex Smith and Domingo Santana were merely replacement-level players in 2019.
Turning to the Mariners’ rotation, the soon-to-be 28-year-old Gonzales comes with even more control than Haniger. Gonzales still has four years remaining, including one more on the unconventional contract he signed with the Mariners last offseason. He’ll earn $1MM in 2020, which will continue to make Gonzales a steal for Seattle, with which he amassed a career-best 203 innings of 3.99 ERA/4.15 FIP pitching this year. He’s hands down the top starter the Mariners have right now, and there’s little doubt Gonzales would bring back a haul from another club. However, it doesn’t appear trade-happy general manager Jerry Dipoto is in any hurry to ship him out.
Aaron Brooks Signs With KBO’s KIA Tigers
NOV. 13: The KIA Tigers have officially signed Brooks, per Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net. His deal comes with a $479K salary and a $200K signing bonus.
NOV. 12: It appears that Orioles righty Aaron Brooks is headed to the KBO, according to reports from Dan Connolly of The Athletic (links to Twitter) and Naver Sports (Korean language link). If all the paperwork is completed, as expected, he’ll agree to a new deal with the KIA Tigers and be set free from the Baltimore 40-man roster.
This sort of arrangement is now commonplace for hurlers such as Brooks. The 29-year-old has shown enough to bounce around the waiver wire and receive MLB opportunities, but hasn’t fully established himself on an active roster.
Brooks did get a lengthy big-league look this year after a strong Triple-A campaign in 2018. He ultimately threw 110 frames on the year, spanning 18 starts and eleven relief appearances in stints with the A’s and O’s. The results weren’t as hoped, as Brooks stumbled to a 5.65 cumulative ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9.
Though the Orioles again need to fill innings, Brooks was at risk of being kicked from the MLB roster at some point this winter. His lack of options helped keep him in the bigs in 2019 but also reduced his appeal to affiliated clubs. By allowing Brooks to leave, the Orioles will pick up some financial compensation. He’ll get a chance to compete at a high level and earn a salary that wouldn’t be available to him in North America.