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Indians To Sign Tyler Clippard

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The Indians have a deal in place with righty reliever Tyler Clippard, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). It’s a minor-league pact that would pay him $1.75MM in the majors with up to $1MM in incentives.

Clippard worked plenty of useful frames last year for the Blue Jays, compiling a 3.67 ERA in 68 2/3 innings. That’s well shy of his prime levels, when he was a late-inning stalwart for the Nationals, but still represents a productive campaign.

Interestingly, Clippard has become an even more extreme pitcher than he was in his heyday. The 34-year-old worked at a healthy 14.3% swinging-strike rate and carried 11.1 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9. He also carried a 19.2% groundball rate last year, the lowest rate in all of baseball. Clippard still knows how to get hitters to chase and whiff on his change-up. The question remains what happens with his high heaters.

In each of the past three seasons, more than 12 percent of the balls put in the air against Clippard have ended up leaving the yard, breaking a string of six-straight years with a HR/FB rate of less than ten percent. As a result, Clippard has surrendered 33 dingers over his past 192 innings — a boost in long ball frequency that maps to a reduction in his average four-seam velocity.

On the other hand, Clippard did still bounce back to a well-above-average 16.3% infield fly rate, allowing him to rack up easy outs. When he keeps the ball in the yard, Clippard remains awfully tough to touch. In fact, he allowed earned runs in only five contests last year in which he did not also surrender a home run.

All things considered, it seems like an easy risk for the Indians to take. Clippard wasn’t well-loved by FIP (4.24) and xFIP (4.28) last year, or in the prior few campaigns, but checked in with an appealing 3.42 SIERA number in 2018. He also fared well in the eyes of Statcast, which credited him with a .278 xwOBA (compared with a .309 wOBA). Clippard is also the game’s most durable reliever, easily topping the league in total innings over the past decade.

AL Central Notes: Abreu, Moncada, Zimmer, Cowart

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White Sox GM Rick Hahn addressed the situation of pending free agent first baseman Jose Abreu, as Scott Merkin of MLB.com tweets. It seems the organization may not be optimistic of reaching a deal to keep Abreu from the open market. “Never say never,” says Hahn, “but we prefer to handle our business in the offseason.” Perhaps there’s still some room for talks in camp, but that comment certainly did not strike a tone that suggests it’s seen as a particularly likely outcome.

  • Key White Sox youngster Yoan Moncada, meanwhile, appears to be slated to move to third base, as Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. Had the team landed a certain prominent free agent target, those plans might have changed, but it now seems reasonably likely that the club will work with its existing infield mix. Yolmer Sanchez is seemingly slated to shift back to second base, with Tim Anderson staying at shortstop. Moncada says he’s happy to move to the hot corner. “I like that position, and with more repetitions I will feel even better,” he said. “I’m just here to help the team in whatever capacity they give me.”
  • With an outfield mix that hardly inspires much confidence, the Indians could certainly stand to receive a comeback effort from former top prospect Bradley Zimmer. As Mandy Bell of MLB.com reports, the 26-year-old appears to be making solid progress in his efforts to return from shoulder surgery. Right now, he’s just starting to take cuts in the cage, so there’s still a ways to go. When last we checked in, Zimmer indicated he was hopeful of landing on the earlier side of the eight-to-twelve-month recovery timeframe he was originally given when he went under the knife last July. If he stays on an upward trajectory, perhaps a reasonably early-season return is possible. Of course, Zimmer will be looking not only to come back from the injury but also a less-than-productive start to his MLB career at the plate.
  • The Tigers intend to focus on getting Kaleb Cowart up to speed as a pitcher, skipper Ron Gardenhire told reporters including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. That would appear to mean a reduction in his infield reps, though as McCosky tweeted today, Cowart was taking part in drills this morning. However things shake out in camp, Gardenhire says, pitching is the “main reason we brought [Cowart] in.” It’s a bit difficult to imagine Cowart cracking the Opening Day roster as a hurler — as the article explains, unsurprisingly, there’s plenty of rust — but he could still emerge as an option if he’s able to find a groove.

10 Forgotten Free Agents

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The long-running but less-than-dynamic market situations of Manny Machado (now resolved!) and Bryce Harper (not so much) have captured much of the public attention this winter. But the evolution of free agency has most notably impacted mid-level veterans. We’ll wait to see how things settle out before attempting to make any conclusive market observations. Still, it’s interesting to see how many prominent players have thus far remained off the radar entirely.

Here’s a list of the ten most notable free agents who have yet to be connected to specific teams on MLBTR’s pages this winter:

  • Jose Iglesias, SS: It’s a bit stunning that Iglesias has yet to draw publicly reported interest. He’s still just 29 and is one of the game’s premium defensive players. He’s also coming off of a good-enough season at the plate (.269/.310/.389; 90 wRC+) for a player with his immense talents with the glove. Over the past four seasons, Iglesias has reliably produced about 2 WAR annually while serving as a semi-regular player (480 plate appearances per season).
  • Ervin Santana, SP: While we have heard some discussion of the veteran righty, we’ve yet to see him connected via firm reporting to a single club. Sure, his 2018 season was a total disaster, as he struggled mightily after a nagging injury robbed him of much of the season. In the two prior campaigns, though, Santana spun 392 2/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball. While his peripherals never suggested those sparkling results fully reflected his contributions, they still painted him as a quality rotation piece.
  • Denard Span, OF: The glovework just isn’t there anymore, but Span can still hit and run the bases. He turned in a .261/.341/.419 slash last year, good for a 112 wRC+, while grading as an above-average baserunner. It’s hard to imagine he wouldn’t at least make for an upgrade as a fourth outfielder for quite a few teams.
  • Logan Morrison, 1B: After settling for a one-year deal following his breakout 2017, Morrison’s injury-riddled 2018 effort represents Exhibit A as to why free agents generally seek to maximize contract length when they hit the open market. Now, Morrison is looking for a bounceback opportunity … and he seems like an interesting buy-low candidate. After all, his .196 BABIP is sure to rise, and he still managed a .182 isolated power mark and 15 home runs in his 359 plate appearances last year.
  • Carlos Gomez, OF: The 33-year-old looked like a possible bargain last year, but turned in a dud of a season for the Rays. But he was a quality performer just one season prior, slashing .255/.340/.462 and contributing 17 long balls and 13 steals over 426 plate appearances with the Rangers.
  • James Shields, SP: No, he’s not a very exciting pitcher anymore. But the 37-year-old is as durable as they come and would make for a respected member of any staff. He gutted out 204 2/3 innings of 4.53 ERA pitching last year, but might be somewhat more effective if utilized in a more limited capacity.
  • Hanley Ramirez, 1B: We all know the story here. HanRam was unceremoniously dumped by the Red Sox early last season and was never picked up thereafter. The 35-year-old wasn’t great in the season prior, either, and hasn’t always had the smoothest relationships with his teams. Still, he was a highly productive hitter in 2016 and for years before that. Ramirez also just turned in a productive showing in the Dominican Winter League.
  • Jose Bautista, OF/3B: While the power probably won’t fully return, Bautista still managed to walk at a 16.8% clip and turn in a .348 on-base percentage last year. He also popped 13 long balls in 399 plate appearances. Bautista is a limited player at this stage of his career, to be sure, but still does some worthwhile things on the ballfield.
  • Matt Holliday, OF/1B: It’s even harder to know what to make of Holliday, who sat out most of 2018 but returned with a bit of a vengeance late in the year with the Rockies. In 65 total plate appearances, Holliday slashed .254/.415/.434 with a pair of dingers. It’s hard to know what he’d look like over a full season, but there surely aren’t many guys sitting around out there that could reach base at that kind of clip after joining a team in the middle of the season at 38 years of age.
  • Tyler Clippard, RP: There are plenty of candidates for this last spot, but the 34-year-old Clippard takes it based upon his overall body of work in the majors. He has now topped sixty innings in ten-straight seasons, a remarkable run for any reliever, and was still capable of posting a 3.67 ERA with 11.1 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9 last year. Clippard has lost some zip on his heater but still generated swings and misses at a 14.3% rate. He also continues to draw loads of infield flies (16.3% last year). While he’s now much more susceptible to dingers than he was in his prime, Clippard has remained a durable and useful reliever. SIERA, at least, is a believer, crediting him with a 3.42 ERA equivalent mark in 2018.

MLBTR Poll: The Manny Machado Signing

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We all knew it would happen at some point, yet somehow it came as a surprise when Manny Machado finally reached agreement on a monster free agent contract. After months of hand-wringing over how much he’d take down, Machado secured a hefty ten-year, $300MM commitment — albeit from a rather unexpected place.

Here at MLBTR, we actually predicted that Machado would secure an even lengthier deal at that $30MM AAV. The bidding frenzy we foresaw never quite developed, as several larger-market clubs stayed on the sideline, but there was still sufficient interest to produce the first-ever $300MM free agent contract.

First question (link for app users):

For the Padres, the move brings in a youthful superstar just ahead of the anticipated crest of a wave of internally developed talent. Machado will be on the books for at least five seasons — he’ll have an opt-out opportunity after his age-30 campaign — and could help open a lengthy contention window. Of course, there’s also risk aplenty in a signing of this magnitude, particularly for an organization that doesn’t have immense payroll capacity and has already placed two larger deals on its books (Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer).

Second question (link for app users):

As noted above, we anticipated entering the winter that a few more bidders would play major roles in the proceedings. Phillies GM Matt Klentak suggested that strict, emotion-less valuations kept his team from increasing its bid. The Yankees seemingly remained on the periphery, seemingly operating with an even tighter grip on their own payroll space. And that was about it … except for the White Sox. The South Siders were obviously all-in on Machado, pulling out all the stops to make an attractive landing spot and putting up a big offer that included more earning upside (but a smaller guarantee) than the one he ultimately took. In the wake of Machado’s decision, the club’s top execs expressed no small amount of disappointment yesterday at missing on him.

Third question (link for app users):

No Agreement Between Reds, Robbie Ross

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Feb. 19: A source tells MLBTR that there is no current agreement between the Reds and Ross. While the two sides have talked, Ross is continuing to throw for other clubs as he seeks a landing spot for the 2019 campaign.

Feb. 16: The Reds have reportedly signed reliever Robbie Ross to a minor league deal.

Ross, 29, held down a regular spot in the Ranger and Red Sox bullpens from 2012-16, but has missed much of the last two seasons with elbow and back problems. In 2016, his last full season of work, Ross turned in an excellent 3.25 ERA/3.27 FIP (0.7 fWAR) on the back of career-best (9.11 K/9, 0.33 HR/9) peripherals. The lefty’s slider, always a cut above, checked in as the 9th best version of the pitch among all qualified relievers that year, per FanGraphs.

Though his bat-missing acumen against opposite-side hitters has largely prevented a breakaway from the journeyman pack, Ross still sports a respectable .319 career wOBA against vs. righties, and shouldn’t be confined to a specialist-only role. The veteran will hope to regain the 2.4 MPH he lost (down to a career-low 91.8 average MPH) on his fastball after injuries took hold.

Ross will look to join an in-flux Reds bullpen spearheaded by a dominant Raisel Iglesias and otherwise peppered with mostly-fungible names. Zach Duke and Amir Garrett carry the unit’s southpaw flag at current, though a pain-free Ross may well squeeze himself in.

Followup Notes On The Manny Machado Deal

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After nearly four months of waiting, Manny Machado’s free agency came to a close Tuesday when he agreed to terms with the Padres on a 10-year, $300MM contract that represents the largest free-agent contract ever signed in American professional sports. Only Giancarlo Stanton’s 13-year, $325MM contract has ever guaranteed a player more money. Machado was pursued by other teams, most notably the Phillies, White Sox and (early in the offseason) the Yankees. While New York was already known to be out of the mix for Machado, the other two primary suitors still had hopes of reeling in one of the offseason’s biggest fish. With that in mind, here are some early reactions to the agreement and some notes on how those who missed out on Machado may proceed in the wake of today’s news…

  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets some insight into how the negotiations themselves played out. Machado’s agent, Dan Lozano of the MVP Sports Group, initially asked teams to submit their best offers in the final week of 2018. At the time, Machado had six clubs involved to varying extents. Those offers were shy of the $300MM guarantee Machado’s camp coveted, though, and rather than simply take the best offer presented, the agency continued working to drive up Machado’s price tag. Ultimately, of course, that proved to be a wise strategy. It’s not known just where Machado’s offers sat in early January, though Lozano made the rare move to publicly speak out against reports on Machado’s market, emphatically calling reports of Machado’s top offer sitting at seven years and $175MM “inaccurate and reckless … [and] completely wrong.”
  • The White Sox offered Machado a higher annual value than the Padres but less guaranteed overall money, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Chicago’s top bid for Machado was a $250MM guarantee over an eight-year term with vesting options and incentives that could’ve escalated the contract’s value to $350MM. It’s rare, however, to see players max out their incentives and escalators (particularly on a deal of this length), so it’s not surprising that Machado opted for the larger guarantee. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds a bit more context, reporting that Chicago’s proposal contained a pair of $35MM vesting options in addition to incentives and escalators.
  • Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that a high-ranking Padres official flatly informed him that the team will not sign Bryce Harper following the agreement with Machado. The Padres’ payroll will be in the neighborhood of $110MM — a franchise record — but while ownership is clearly willing to spend more than ever before in 2019, it’d still be a shock to see another seismic addition. Despite that report, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Friars won’t completely rule out adding Harper. The Padres have clearly done their due diligence on Harper, so perhaps they’ll continue to lurk on the periphery in case Harper’s view on a shorter-term deal changes.
  • Acee’s column also offers a look at how the Padres came to reach an agreement with Machado. San Diego, according to Acee, hadn’t even expressed legitimate interest, let alone discussed an offer, until mid-January. Their early meetings revealed the asking price to be considerably higher than expected, but, as Acee notes, general manager A.J. Preller’s “creativity and relentlessness” ultimately swayed ownership into approving the expenditure. At this time, Acee adds, there’s no immediate plan to add another starting pitcher to the mix. Friars fans in particular will want to be sure to read the column in its entirety, which contains quotes from several Padres players on the reported agreement.
  • Although Phillies owner John Middleton infamously spoke of spending “stupid” money early in the offseason, the price for Machado apparently reached a point where the team’s baseball operations officials simply weren’t comfortable. “There’s a certain value that we believe a player brings and we were willing to get aggressive on this,” general manager Matt Klentak told Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Daily News. “If the reports are true, then this contract will exceed our valuation, and sometimes you have to be willing to walk away.” Klentak confirmed that the Phillies are still interested in Harper but cautioned that the team simply wouldn’t allow itself “to be put into a position where we have to do something at all costs.” There’s no way of knowing whether the Phils objectively value Harper at a higher number than Machado, but agent Scott Boras will likely be aiming to topple Machado’s guarantee and Klentak didn’t speak like someone gearing up for a bidding war.
  • White Sox general manager Rick Hahn expressed “frustration” and “disappointment” after learning of Machado’s deal with the Padres, writes Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. The Sox met with Machado’s camp Monday and presented an increased offer (as noted above), believing that may put them over the edge. Ultimately, though, it seems as though owner Jerry Reinsdorf knew the point at which he felt he had to walk away. “[The Padres’] ownership group did a great job in trumping everyone else,” said Hahn while also commending Reinsdorf’s “willingness to step up” with what would’ve easily been a franchise-record contract for the ChiSox, who have never signed a player for more than Jose Abreu’s $68MM. Hahn indicated that the White Sox eventually topped out because of a need to “project putting together a total winning roster, and keeping the young players that will ultimately earn into greater dollars themselves.” As for the money earmarked for Machado, Hahn said it would be spent, though not necessarily this offseason (Twitter link via Van Schouwen). It’s worth noting, of course, that next winter’s free-agent market has its own share of high-profile names (e.g. Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, Xander Bogaerts, Madison Bumgarner).

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/19/19

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While the world is abuzz following the largest signing of the offseason earlier today, there are still some minor moves happening throughout the league. We’ll keep track of them here…

  • The Pirates have voided their minor league contract with right-hander Roberto Gomez after concerns arose following his physical exam, the team told reporters (Twitter link via the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Bill Brink). The 29-year-old spent the past two seasons with the Giants organization and tossed 14 2/3 innings at the big league level, though he was roughed up to the tune of a 7.98 ERA in that tiny sample. Gomez, to his credit, notched a much more impressive 14-to-2 K/BB ratio in that time. He also owns a respectable 4.21 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 in 115 1/3 innings of Triple-A ball — all coming in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. The exact nature of his injury remains unclear, but he’ll no longer be vying for a job with the Buccos.
  • Journeyman infielder Dean Anna, who’d been slated to report to camp with the Twins on a minor league contract, has opted to retire (Twitter link via Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press). Anna, 32, saw brief MLB action with the Yankees and Cardinals back in 2014-15, though he only ever tallied a total of 26 MLB plate appearances. He’s spent parts of six seasons in Triple-A, where he was a career .280/.372/.377 hitter with experience playing all over the infield (plus a bit of outfield work).

Carlos Martinez Shut Down For Two Weeks

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4:15pm: Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak offered some pointed words with regards to Martinez’s shoulder and offseason training (Twitter links via The Athletic’s Mark Saxon): “Obviously, there’s a history with Carlos’ shoulder and it would be probably in everybody’s best interest if he maintained a constant or perpetual approach to that program.” 

More specifically, Saxon notes that the organization would’ve preferred a greater emphasis on physical therapy than strength training. He emphasizes that the Cardinals organization does not question the level of work that Martinez put in over the winter.

9:25am: The Cardinals have shut down righty Carlos Martinez from throwing for two weeks, per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch Twitter links). While there’s no concern of structural damage, the club believes that the hurler needs to build up shoulder strength.

Given the timing of the news, it seems reasonable to anticipate that Martinez will not be ready to join the rotation on Opening Day. There are indications the club may prefer to utilize him in a relief capacity, though even in that case it’d seem prudent to chart a conservative course. Beyond the immediate needs, the Cards have to protect their future investment in Martinez ($34.5MM over three years, plus two options).

Martinez, 27, has mostly been healthy and productive since joining the Cards’ rotation on a full-time basis in 2015. But he has dealt with some health issues in that time. Things came to a head last season, when shoulder troubles sidelined him for a stretch and forced him to return as a relief pitcher late in the season.

It’s hard to know just what to make of this latest news. Martinez could respond well to the strengthening program and jump right back into action. Then again, the shoulder is a complicated part of the body; uncertainty there is most unwelcome for any hurler. We’ll just have to see how Martinez progresses. For the Cards, the news represents an early test of the club’s pitching depth.

Scooter Gennett Frustrated By Lack Of Extension Talks

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Reds second baseman Scooter Gennett expressed frustration today with the lack of engagement by the organization regarding a long-term contract, as John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports.

Saying that his side has “opened it up” in search of a dialogue this winter, Gennett says he has “heard absolutely nothing.” Previously, he and the club worked out a $9.775MM deal to cover his final season of arbitration eligibility. That’s a hefty sum, to be sure, but did fall shy of the $10.7MM that MLBTR projected.

Gennett made clear that his primary frustration isn’t the lack of a long-term deal so much as it is the club’s communication on the matter. “What I don’t like is when you’re told we’re going to have a talk and it doesn’t happen,” he said. GM Nick Krall declined to comment, citing club policy.

In the middle of the 2018 campaign, Gennett said he had reason to believe there was serious interest from the club in an extension. Things seemingly shifted this winter, though, for the Cincinnati native. President of baseball operations Dick Williams cast doubt on the possibility of a deal and Gennett even briefly popped up in trade rumors.

There’s still time for a change of course in camp, but there’s clearly no momentum toward an agreement at present. Gennett says he’s fine with the current arrangement from a financial perspective — “I’m only going to make more money going year-to-year than if I signed a long-term deal” — but would like to know what to anticipate from a personal perspective.

Looking at the subject from a roster-building perspective, it’s not too hard to see why the Reds might have hesitated. Gennett is still just 28 years of age and has now put up two-straight quality seasons, but he also has some platoon limitations and only lines up at second base defensively. While the plan is to put top prospect Nick Senzel at center field this spring, it’s also possible that he or another rising prospect could make for a compelling infield option in the relatively near term. With other needs already readily foreseeable next winter, locking into Gennett for significant money comes with some clear downside.

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