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Latest Bryce Harper Rumors

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If you’ve been away from the internet for the last 24 hours, you’ll want to catch up on the major free agent news that broke yesterday. If not, you can safely skip ahead to focusing on what’s next: the final stretch of bidding for Bryce Harper. Here’s the latest:

  • The Phillies’ “total focus” right now is on Harper, Heyman tweets. Another free agent, such as Dallas Keuchel and/or Craig Kimbrel could become a target once Harper signs (be it in Philadelphia or elsewhere), but at the moment, the organization’s efforts are zeroed in on landing Harper.
  • Todd Zolecki, Mark Feinsand and Jamal Collier of MLB.com write that the Phillies are wary of bidding against themselves and overpaying for Harper. Notably, the MLB.com trio cite multiple sources in reporting that the Nationals “have no plans to give Harper a mega-deal comparable to Machado’s 10-year, $300 million contract.” If that’s the case, then it’s not clear exactly who’d pose a threat to the Phillies at present, as the Giants’ interest in Harper has repeatedly been reported to be on a shorter term deal with a significant annual value. The report also cites two sources indicating that approximately $100MM of the Nationals’ initial 10-year, $300MM offer to Harper (issued back in September) would have been deferred. Certainly, ownership could still decide to step up and retain the face of the franchise, but the fact that the initial offer was well shy of $300MM in actual, present-day value because of those deferrals doesn’t bode well for the Nats now deciding to top $300MM. Machado’s deal reportedly contains no deferrals.
  • Giants president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi didn’t speak with an increased urgency after the Padres landed Machado, as Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. Specifically, Zaidi stated that he doesn’t think the Machado agreement “really changes how we’re viewing our team and what we might still do with it,” going on to emphasize the importance of making the “right decision” rather than acting “in a reactionary way.”

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Mariners Seek Right-Handed-Hitting Catcher, Have Shown Interest In Martin Maldonado

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Feb. 20: Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times takes a broader look, reporting that the Mariners are in the market for a right-handed-hitting catcher to pair with the left-handed-hitting Narvaez. The organization’s preference, per Divish, is to add a catcher on a minor league contract or a split MLB deal. Maldonado, however, is still seeking a fully guaranteed big league deal. The fact that he’s having a difficult time coming by one, given his defensive prowess, frankly comes as a surprise; Maldonado’s bat last season was light, but then again, so was that of the league-average catcher (84 wRC+). At the very least, one would think that Maldonado is a clear upgrade over a significant portion of backup catchers throughout the league.

At this point, the free-agent market offers little in the way of alternatives outside of switch-hitting Matt Wieters (who, like Maldonado, is represented by Scott Boras). That said, there will quite likely be numerous catching options that hit the market over the course of Spring Training, both in the form of players being exposed to waivers and other veterans opting out of minor league contracts.

Feb. 19: The Mariners are among the clubs that are interested in veteran catcher Martin Maldonado, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

It’s been a quiet offseason for Maldonado, one of the game’s most highly regarded defenders behind the plate. While Maldonado doesn’t offer much help with the bat, he’s a former Gold Glove winner with a career 38 percent caught-stealing rate whose framing rates have never once rated as below-average at the Major League level, per Baseball Prospectus. Dating back to 2012, the only catchers in all of baseball with more Defensive Runs Saved than Maldonado’s 68 are Buster Posey (92) and Yadier Molina (83), though both have caught at least 2000 innings more than Maldonado.

Strong as his glovework might be, Maldonado is a career .220/.289/.350 hitter who has managed a lowly .223/.276/.360 (73 OPS+) line in 875 plate appearances across the past two seasons. Maldonado does have a bit of pop, as evidenced by the .137 ISO and 23 home runs he’s logged dating back to Opening Day 2017.

For the Mariners, Maldonado would provide a nice defensive-minded option to pair with offseason trade acquisition Omar Narvaez, who remains a shaky defender despite the fact that his bat took a step forward in 2018. Currently, journeyman David Freitas projects to be the primary backup to Narvaez, as he’s the only other catcher on the Mariners’ 40-man roster. Veteran Jose Lobaton is in camp with the Mariners on a minor league pact as well.

There’s been little in the way of reported interest in Maldonado since December, when the Mets and White Sox were both linked to him. New York, however, has has since added Wilson Ramos on a two-year contract, while the ChiSox picked up James McCann to pair with veteran Welington Castillo.

Phillies, Trevor Plouffe Agree To Minor League Deal

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Veteran infielder Trevor Plouffe is returning to the Phillies on a minor league contract, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). He’ll report to camp tomorrow, Heyman adds. Plouffe is represented by CAA.

The 32-year-old Plouffe spent the 2018 season in the Philadelphia organization as well, appearing in seven big league games and making 12 plate appearances with three hits (including a memorable walk-off three-run homer in the 16th inning of a marathon game against the Dodgers). The rest of his season was spent with the Phillies’ Triple-A affiliate, where he slashed .230/.347/.460 with a dozen homers and 16 doubles in 274 trips to the plate.

Plouffe was the Twins’ primary third baseman for a significant portion of the team’s downturn earlier this decade, logging 2201 plate appearances from 2012-15 and posting a solid .248/.312/.426 while averaging 18 homers and 29 doubles per season along the way. The right-handed-hitting Plouffe is a better option against lefties, as one might expect. A former first-round pick, Plouffe never found his footing as a shortstop at the MLB level but eventually settled in as a solid defender at third base in his best seasons. He eventually began seeing occasional work at first base, as well.

Plouffe seems like a long shot to make the Phillies’ roster out of Spring Training, given that the team’s two primary corner infielders, Rhys Hoskins and Maikel Franco, both hit right-handed. The organization has a left-handed-hitting corner option on the 40-man roster already (Mitch Walding), and Plouffe’s experience in the outfield is limited. That said, he’s an experienced depth addition to have on hand in the event of injuries at the MLB level, and the team’s trade of Carlos Santana earlier this offseason does create a slightly easier path for him to resurface at the MLB level at some point in 2019.

NL East Notes: Herrera, Mets, Braves, Castro

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Phillies outfielder Odubel Herrera left camp today with a wrap on his leg after aggravating a hamstring strain he’d suffered a few weeks ago in offseason workouts, writes Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Manager Gabe Kapler called the issue “mild,” and there doesn’t seem to be any immediate concern, though it’s obviously a situation worth monitoring. More broadly, though, Salisbury’s latest piece takes a look at Herrera’s future with the Phillies — particularly with the addition of Bryce Harper still very much on the table for the Phils. Herrera could potentially become a trade option in the event that the Phils land Harper, Salisbury notes, and even if it’s not Herrera, one of the Phillies’ incumbent outfielders would likely be forced out of the picture. Although Herrera only just turned 27, he’s been a fixture on the Phillies’ roster for the past four seasons. He’s guaranteed $24.5MM over the next three seasons as part of a $30.5MM contract extension that also contains a pair of club options.

Here’s more from the National League East…

  • Mets fans have become all too familiar with the injury bug in recent seasons, and unfortunately, the club is already dealing with at least one injury scare. As Tim Healey of Newsday writes, newly signed infielder Jed Lowrie is headed for an MRI after experiencing discomfort in his left knee. Lowrie describes the issue as soreness on the back side of his knee and says it first surfaced when getting up to full speed in running drills and when taking batting practice. Beyond Lowrie, outfielder Brandon Nimmo is experiencing some shoulder soreness but is confident that the issue is just a matter of early-spring soreness rather than an indication of anything serious.
  • The Braves will give top third base prospect Austin Riley some work in the outfield this spring, writes Michael Cunningham of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. That experiment isn’t indicative of a permanent position switch but instead would be a means of seeing if Riley can provide some value to this year’s MLB roster after the addition of Josh Donaldson firmly blocked Riley’s path to regular at-bats at the hot corner. As evidenced by his .294/.360/.522 slash line across three levels last year (including .282/.346/.464 in 374 Triple-A plate appearances), the soon-to-be 22-year-old Riley may not have much left to prove against minor league pitching. Donaldson’s addition already pushed versatile Johan Camargo from a starter back to a utility role, Cunningham notes, and the emergence of Riley as a viable MLB option would only further limit Camargo in 2019. Of course, that scenario wouldn’t necessarily play out early in the season, and if Riley does eventually prove ready, it’d only be a boon to the Braves’ roster to have that level of depth and talent in the dugout. The 25-year-old Camargo is sometimes overlooked by those who don’t follow the Braves closely, but he posted a very solid .272/.349/.457 slash with 19 home runs last season and is slated to get a few starts per week as a backup at third base, second base and shortstop.
  • The Marlins received limited trade interest in Starlin Castro at last summer’s trade deadline, writes Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, but they’ll likely have more motivation to make a deal involving him this time around. Infield prospect Isan Diaz, acquired from the Brewers in last year’s Christian Yelich trade, reached Triple-A as a 22-year-old last season, and while he struggled there against older competition, he’ll have another several months to inch closer to MLB readiness. Diaz ranked 104th among MLB prospects on Fangraphs’ 2019 rankings and is slotted in seventh among Miami farmhands on MLB.com’s rankings (in addition to being their No. 10 overall second base prospect). Castro, meanwhile, is set to earn $12MM in his contract’s final guaranteed season ($11MM salary, $1MM buyout on next year’s $16MM team option). At that price, he’s not exactly a bargain but he isn’t grossly overpaid, either, considering last year’s .278/.329/.400 slash (101 wRC+, 107 OPS+). Fangraphs valued Castro at 2.3 wins above replacement, while Baseball-Reference was more bullish at 3.3 WAR.

Anthony Rendon Open To Extension Talks During Season

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Anthony Rendon said today that he isn’t putting any deadlines on extension talks with the Nationals, as Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com was among those to report.

Emphasizing that he’s the boss in his relationship with agent Scott Boras, Rendon said he’s ready to listen to offers at any time of the year. He doesn’t expect contract talks to become a distraction if they drag into the season, but says that “if it does become an issue, then I’ll address it.”

Surely the preference on all sides would be to wrap something up during camp, but it seems there’s still a gulf to be bridged in terms of price. Rendon has, not unjustifiably, staked out a high asking price. He declined to get into details, telling reporters he’d rather leave them guessing, but did acknowledge ongoing chatter. Said Rendon: “if both parties can be happy, then we’ll see.”

Rendon’s stance, then, generally echoes that of fellow star third baseman Nolan Arenado, who is exploring the possibility of a long-term deal with the Rockies. It’s interesting to wonder whether those parallel extension negotiations could influence one another, both because the players are similarly valuable on the field and because the presence or absence of one on next winter’s market could significantly impact the earning outlook for the other.

These players have surely taken note of Manny Machado’s recent payday in considering their own possible free agent futures. Of course, both Rendon and Arenado are on track to enter the market at significantly older (but still youthful) ages, but each has an argument to command an average salary in the range of Machado’s $30MM. We examined Rendon’s extension case at the outset of the offseason.

Indians To Sign Tyler Clippard

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The Indians have a deal in place with righty reliever Tyler Clippard, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). It’s a minor-league pact that would pay him $1.75MM in the majors with up to $1MM in incentives.

Clippard worked plenty of useful frames last year for the Blue Jays, compiling a 3.67 ERA in 68 2/3 innings. That’s well shy of his prime levels, when he was a late-inning stalwart for the Nationals, but still represents a productive campaign.

Interestingly, Clippard has become an even more extreme pitcher than he was in his heyday. The 34-year-old worked at a healthy 14.3% swinging-strike rate and carried 11.1 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9. He also carried a 19.2% groundball rate last year, the lowest rate in all of baseball. Clippard still knows how to get hitters to chase and whiff on his change-up. The question remains what happens with his high heaters.

In each of the past three seasons, more than 12 percent of the balls put in the air against Clippard have ended up leaving the yard, breaking a string of six-straight years with a HR/FB rate of less than ten percent. As a result, Clippard has surrendered 33 dingers over his past 192 innings — a boost in long ball frequency that maps to a reduction in his average four-seam velocity.

On the other hand, Clippard did still bounce back to a well-above-average 16.3% infield fly rate, allowing him to rack up easy outs. When he keeps the ball in the yard, Clippard remains awfully tough to touch. In fact, he allowed earned runs in only five contests last year in which he did not also surrender a home run.

All things considered, it seems like an easy risk for the Indians to take. Clippard wasn’t well-loved by FIP (4.24) and xFIP (4.28) last year, or in the prior few campaigns, but checked in with an appealing 3.42 SIERA number in 2018. He also fared well in the eyes of Statcast, which credited him with a .278 xwOBA (compared with a .309 wOBA). Clippard is also the game’s most durable reliever, easily topping the league in total innings over the past decade.

AL Central Notes: Abreu, Moncada, Zimmer, Cowart

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White Sox GM Rick Hahn addressed the situation of pending free agent first baseman Jose Abreu, as Scott Merkin of MLB.com tweets. It seems the organization may not be optimistic of reaching a deal to keep Abreu from the open market. “Never say never,” says Hahn, “but we prefer to handle our business in the offseason.” Perhaps there’s still some room for talks in camp, but that comment certainly did not strike a tone that suggests it’s seen as a particularly likely outcome.

  • Key White Sox youngster Yoan Moncada, meanwhile, appears to be slated to move to third base, as Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. Had the team landed a certain prominent free agent target, those plans might have changed, but it now seems reasonably likely that the club will work with its existing infield mix. Yolmer Sanchez is seemingly slated to shift back to second base, with Tim Anderson staying at shortstop. Moncada says he’s happy to move to the hot corner. “I like that position, and with more repetitions I will feel even better,” he said. “I’m just here to help the team in whatever capacity they give me.”
  • With an outfield mix that hardly inspires much confidence, the Indians could certainly stand to receive a comeback effort from former top prospect Bradley Zimmer. As Mandy Bell of MLB.com reports, the 26-year-old appears to be making solid progress in his efforts to return from shoulder surgery. Right now, he’s just starting to take cuts in the cage, so there’s still a ways to go. When last we checked in, Zimmer indicated he was hopeful of landing on the earlier side of the eight-to-twelve-month recovery timeframe he was originally given when he went under the knife last July. If he stays on an upward trajectory, perhaps a reasonably early-season return is possible. Of course, Zimmer will be looking not only to come back from the injury but also a less-than-productive start to his MLB career at the plate.
  • The Tigers intend to focus on getting Kaleb Cowart up to speed as a pitcher, skipper Ron Gardenhire told reporters including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. That would appear to mean a reduction in his infield reps, though as McCosky tweeted today, Cowart was taking part in drills this morning. However things shake out in camp, Gardenhire says, pitching is the “main reason we brought [Cowart] in.” It’s a bit difficult to imagine Cowart cracking the Opening Day roster as a hurler — as the article explains, unsurprisingly, there’s plenty of rust — but he could still emerge as an option if he’s able to find a groove.

10 Forgotten Free Agents

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The long-running but less-than-dynamic market situations of Manny Machado (now resolved!) and Bryce Harper (not so much) have captured much of the public attention this winter. But the evolution of free agency has most notably impacted mid-level veterans. We’ll wait to see how things settle out before attempting to make any conclusive market observations. Still, it’s interesting to see how many prominent players have thus far remained off the radar entirely.

Here’s a list of the ten most notable free agents who have yet to be connected to specific teams on MLBTR’s pages this winter:

  • Jose Iglesias, SS: It’s a bit stunning that Iglesias has yet to draw publicly reported interest. He’s still just 29 and is one of the game’s premium defensive players. He’s also coming off of a good-enough season at the plate (.269/.310/.389; 90 wRC+) for a player with his immense talents with the glove. Over the past four seasons, Iglesias has reliably produced about 2 WAR annually while serving as a semi-regular player (480 plate appearances per season).
  • Ervin Santana, SP: While we have heard some discussion of the veteran righty, we’ve yet to see him connected via firm reporting to a single club. Sure, his 2018 season was a total disaster, as he struggled mightily after a nagging injury robbed him of much of the season. In the two prior campaigns, though, Santana spun 392 2/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball. While his peripherals never suggested those sparkling results fully reflected his contributions, they still painted him as a quality rotation piece.
  • Denard Span, OF: The glovework just isn’t there anymore, but Span can still hit and run the bases. He turned in a .261/.341/.419 slash last year, good for a 112 wRC+, while grading as an above-average baserunner. It’s hard to imagine he wouldn’t at least make for an upgrade as a fourth outfielder for quite a few teams.
  • Logan Morrison, 1B: After settling for a one-year deal following his breakout 2017, Morrison’s injury-riddled 2018 effort represents Exhibit A as to why free agents generally seek to maximize contract length when they hit the open market. Now, Morrison is looking for a bounceback opportunity … and he seems like an interesting buy-low candidate. After all, his .196 BABIP is sure to rise, and he still managed a .182 isolated power mark and 15 home runs in his 359 plate appearances last year.
  • Carlos Gomez, OF: The 33-year-old looked like a possible bargain last year, but turned in a dud of a season for the Rays. But he was a quality performer just one season prior, slashing .255/.340/.462 and contributing 17 long balls and 13 steals over 426 plate appearances with the Rangers.
  • James Shields, SP: No, he’s not a very exciting pitcher anymore. But the 37-year-old is as durable as they come and would make for a respected member of any staff. He gutted out 204 2/3 innings of 4.53 ERA pitching last year, but might be somewhat more effective if utilized in a more limited capacity.
  • Hanley Ramirez, 1B: We all know the story here. HanRam was unceremoniously dumped by the Red Sox early last season and was never picked up thereafter. The 35-year-old wasn’t great in the season prior, either, and hasn’t always had the smoothest relationships with his teams. Still, he was a highly productive hitter in 2016 and for years before that. Ramirez also just turned in a productive showing in the Dominican Winter League.
  • Jose Bautista, OF/3B: While the power probably won’t fully return, Bautista still managed to walk at a 16.8% clip and turn in a .348 on-base percentage last year. He also popped 13 long balls in 399 plate appearances. Bautista is a limited player at this stage of his career, to be sure, but still does some worthwhile things on the ballfield.
  • Matt Holliday, OF/1B: It’s even harder to know what to make of Holliday, who sat out most of 2018 but returned with a bit of a vengeance late in the year with the Rockies. In 65 total plate appearances, Holliday slashed .254/.415/.434 with a pair of dingers. It’s hard to know what he’d look like over a full season, but there surely aren’t many guys sitting around out there that could reach base at that kind of clip after joining a team in the middle of the season at 38 years of age.
  • Tyler Clippard, RP: There are plenty of candidates for this last spot, but the 34-year-old Clippard takes it based upon his overall body of work in the majors. He has now topped sixty innings in ten-straight seasons, a remarkable run for any reliever, and was still capable of posting a 3.67 ERA with 11.1 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9 last year. Clippard has lost some zip on his heater but still generated swings and misses at a 14.3% rate. He also continues to draw loads of infield flies (16.3% last year). While he’s now much more susceptible to dingers than he was in his prime, Clippard has remained a durable and useful reliever. SIERA, at least, is a believer, crediting him with a 3.42 ERA equivalent mark in 2018.

MLBTR Poll: The Manny Machado Signing

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We all knew it would happen at some point, yet somehow it came as a surprise when Manny Machado finally reached agreement on a monster free agent contract. After months of hand-wringing over how much he’d take down, Machado secured a hefty ten-year, $300MM commitment — albeit from a rather unexpected place.

Here at MLBTR, we actually predicted that Machado would secure an even lengthier deal at that $30MM AAV. The bidding frenzy we foresaw never quite developed, as several larger-market clubs stayed on the sideline, but there was still sufficient interest to produce the first-ever $300MM free agent contract.

First question (link for app users):

For the Padres, the move brings in a youthful superstar just ahead of the anticipated crest of a wave of internally developed talent. Machado will be on the books for at least five seasons — he’ll have an opt-out opportunity after his age-30 campaign — and could help open a lengthy contention window. Of course, there’s also risk aplenty in a signing of this magnitude, particularly for an organization that doesn’t have immense payroll capacity and has already placed two larger deals on its books (Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer).

Second question (link for app users):

As noted above, we anticipated entering the winter that a few more bidders would play major roles in the proceedings. Phillies GM Matt Klentak suggested that strict, emotion-less valuations kept his team from increasing its bid. The Yankees seemingly remained on the periphery, seemingly operating with an even tighter grip on their own payroll space. And that was about it … except for the White Sox. The South Siders were obviously all-in on Machado, pulling out all the stops to make an attractive landing spot and putting up a big offer that included more earning upside (but a smaller guarantee) than the one he ultimately took. In the wake of Machado’s decision, the club’s top execs expressed no small amount of disappointment yesterday at missing on him.

Third question (link for app users):

No Agreement Between Reds, Robbie Ross

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Feb. 19: A source tells MLBTR that there is no current agreement between the Reds and Ross. While the two sides have talked, Ross is continuing to throw for other clubs as he seeks a landing spot for the 2019 campaign.

Feb. 16: The Reds have reportedly signed reliever Robbie Ross to a minor league deal.

Ross, 29, held down a regular spot in the Ranger and Red Sox bullpens from 2012-16, but has missed much of the last two seasons with elbow and back problems. In 2016, his last full season of work, Ross turned in an excellent 3.25 ERA/3.27 FIP (0.7 fWAR) on the back of career-best (9.11 K/9, 0.33 HR/9) peripherals. The lefty’s slider, always a cut above, checked in as the 9th best version of the pitch among all qualified relievers that year, per FanGraphs.

Though his bat-missing acumen against opposite-side hitters has largely prevented a breakaway from the journeyman pack, Ross still sports a respectable .319 career wOBA against vs. righties, and shouldn’t be confined to a specialist-only role. The veteran will hope to regain the 2.4 MPH he lost (down to a career-low 91.8 average MPH) on his fastball after injuries took hold.

Ross will look to join an in-flux Reds bullpen spearheaded by a dominant Raisel Iglesias and otherwise peppered with mostly-fungible names. Zach Duke and Amir Garrett carry the unit’s southpaw flag at current, though a pain-free Ross may well squeeze himself in.

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