Athletics Eyeing Left-Handed Bats, Additional Bullpen Arms
Were they not in the AL West, the Athletics might have a division title under their belt in the past couple of seasons. Unfortunately for Oakland, they’ve played second fiddle to a powerhouse Astros club despite a pair of 97-win seasons and now must look for an avenue to either topple the ‘Stros or finally punch through the Wild Card barrier.
That’s easier said than done, of course, and general manager David Forst chatted with John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle about this week’s GM Meetings and the work his club has to do to improve. Specifically, the Athletics would like to balance out their lineup a bit this winter. “It’s something we’ve discussed a lot internally, looking for opportunities to add left-handed bats to the lineup,” said Forst, who also listed the bullpen as a potential area for supplementation.
A certain old friend could even be a potential target, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. The A’s have reached out to the representatives for free agent catcher Stephen Vogt, creating an opening for an intriguing potential reunion that didn’t seem terribly likely when the sides parted ways. The left-handed-hitting backstop could help with the aforementioned desire for lineup balance while also serving as a reserve behind the dish.
At present, the Athletics are heavily reliant on right-handed bats. Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien, Khris Davis, Ramon Laureano, Stephen Piscotty, Mark Canha and on-the-rise catcher Sean Murphy all hit from the right side of the dish. Oakland does have one potent lefty bat in first baseman Matt Olson, while switch-hitters Robbie Grossman and Jurickson Profar at least offered manager Bob Melvin some options from the left side of the plate. But the 2019 A’s were a powerhouse against left-handed pitching, ranking fourth in the Majors with a 115 wRC+ in that regard, while they posted a more measured (but still above-average) 104 wRC+ against right-handed opposition.
Both marks are reflective of a quality offensive unit, but there is indeed an opportunity to add some more balance — particularly with MLB rosters set to expand from 25 players to 26 players in 2020. The presence of that robust core — Olson, Chapman, Semien, Davis, Murphy, Laureano — doesn’t leave the A’s with too many clear spots for upgrade, but further comments from Forst lend some insight. The GM suggested that left field, where Grossman and Chad Pinder formed a capable platoon, isn’t “at the top of the priority list” at the moment.
As MLBTR’s Connor Byrne explored late last month in the Athletics’ Offseason Outlook, adding a left-handed bat at second base and/or in the outfield could be in the cards. Incumbent options include the aforementioned Pinder (who can play both positions), Profar (second base) and Piscotty (right field). Younger players like Franklin Barreto and Jorge Mateo have also yet to get a real look at second base and, as Shea observes, will both be out of minor league options in 2020.
Pinder is best suited for a bench role and saw even his numbers against lefties back up in 2019. Defensive questions swirled around Profar, who had a poor year at the plate outside of a blistering month of August. Piscotty is still owed $22.5MM over the next three seasons combined, which the A’s may deem too steep after his bat took a couple steps back in 2019 (.249/.309/.412).
The free-agent market offers some intriguing alternatives — Kole Calhoun or old friends Ben Zobrist and Eric Sogard could all conceivably fit the mold of what the organization is seeking. The relief market features numerous affordable arms — Sergio Romo, Pedro Strop, Craig Stammen and David Phelps among them. And the A’s, of course, are ever-active on the trade market and figure to lay the foundation for such negotiations at this week’s GM Meetings.
Still, it’s not an easy puzzle to solve. Their current 2020 payroll commitments stand at $45.5MM between Davis, Piscotty, Mike Fiers, Joakim Soria and Yusmeiro Petit. The A’s have another $53.7MM worth of projected arbitration salaries (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), which are headlined by a $13.5MM projection for Semien. Among the notable non-tender/trade candidates in that bunch are Blake Treinen ($7.8MM projection), Profar ($5.8MM) and catcher Josh Phegley ($2.2MM).
As ever, cost will be a paramount consideration. Oakland opened the 2019 season with a $92MM payroll — low for most clubs but a franchise record for the A’s — and their current guarantees and arb projections alone will push them to $99MM (before even factoring in pre-arbitration players to round out the roster). If the hope is to add at least one new lefty bat (if not two) and some additional ‘pen help, they’ll need to be aggressive in non-tendering/trading from that arbitration class and perhaps explore the market for Piscotty (depending on other moves). It’ll make for quite a few moving parts and possibly some unexpected trade scenarios, but that’s become the norm for Beane, Forst and the rest of an always-creative Oakland front office.
Looking more closely at the catching situation, Phegley’s situation is particularly relevant as concerns Vogt, since the former is presently in line to fill an important role behind the plate. It’s possible that both could share time on the roster, though that doesn’t seem terribly likely given the costs involved and the ongoing presence of Davis in the DH slot. The fact that there’s interest in Vogt seems a clear indication that the club is at least considering a different direction. As Slusser notes, Phegley’s offense tailed off in the second half and he lost playing time to Murphy down the stretch.
Vogt, of course, logged four-plus seasons with the A’s and was the club’s top catcher from 2015-2016. He emerged as something of a fan favorite thanks to his solid offensive contributions. In his time in Oakland, Vogt slashed .256/.317/.416 (101 wRC+) over 1641 plate appearances. He tailed off at the plate in 2017, leading the A’s to designate him for assignment, before a career-threatening shoulder injury wiped out his 2018 season.
Fortunately, Vogt posted a suprising bounceback effort last season with the Giants. In 280 plate appearances, Vogt slashed .263/.314/.490 (107 wRC+) with 10 home runs. Entering his age-35 season, Vogt surely won’t be expected to carry a huge load at catcher, but he’s still capable of getting behind the dish and offers some left-handed power, in addition to a well-respected veteran presence. As Slusser notes, that could make Vogt an ideal fit as the A’s break in the aforementioned Murphy. Already one of the game’s top prospects, Murphy impressed in a brief showing as a September call-up but will be in need of some supplementation and mentoring.
Multiple Teams Pursuing Zack Wheeler At Outset Of Free Agency
7:33pm: The Mets also remain interested in exploring a multi-year arrangement with Wheeler, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). It’s not evident how serious that possibility is — let alone whether there’s any potential for a pact to come together before Wheeler formally reaches the open market.
We’ve seen plenty of on-again/off-again chatter of a deal with Wheeler over recent months. When the Mets acquired Marcus Stroman, it was generally supposed that the club was going to move on from Wheeler, though the door stayed open when he wasn’t dealt over the summer. With obvious budgetary restrains and other needs, it still feels like a longshot.
Meanwhile, those prior trade talks also came up in reporting today. Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets that the Mets spoke with teams right up until the deadline passed, with the Astros pushing hardest and the Yankees, Rays, and Athletics also involved.
That’s mostly of historical interest, though it could offer some clues for free agency. Indeed, the Houston organization is already engaged with Wheeler’s reps, per Heyman (via Twitter). The ‘Stros talked shop with Jet Sports today. We can only presume that the outfit’s major free agent starter came up in conversation, among other things.
2:29pm: Zack Wheeler technically has another three days to accept or reject his $17.8MM qualifying offer from the Mets, but there’s never been a realistic scenario in which he takes the one-year deal. The right-hander is widely considered to be among the four best pitchers in free agency this winter — No. 3 behind Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, by many accounts — and should have little trouble cashing in on a lucrative multi-year pact. To that end, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that the Angels, Padres and White Sox are among the teams that have shown early interest in Wheeler. Other clubs have surely checked in already and will continue to do so, of course.
Wheeler, 29, has come all the way back from a lengthy absence stemming from 2015 Tommy John surgery. He’s made 60 starts over the past two seasons and saw his fastball velocity tick up to a career-high 96.7 mph average in 2019 — the second-hardest mark of any free-agent starter on the market (behind Cole).
Wheeler had a rough handful of starts at the beginning of each of the past two seasons, but over his past 55 starts combined, he’s worked to a 3.47 ERA (3.27 FIP) with 9.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9 and a 43.1 percent ground-ball rate in 349 2/3 innings. Beyond the high-end velocity, Wheeler possesses above-average spin on his heater and curveball, and he’s excelled in terms of minimizing hard contact against him (90th percentile average exit-velocity among MLB starters, per Statcast).
Each of the three listed teams is a natural fit for Wheeler, though that’s true of the majority of rotation-hungry teams in the league. While the likes of Cole and Strasburg will be wholly ruled out by many clubs due to their expected $30MM+ annual salaries and over the next half decade-plus, Wheeler is quite likely someone most teams will view as affordable — even if he’s at the top end of their budget. The New York Post’s Joel Sherman quotes one team executive expressing a similar sentiment, calling Wheeler the best arm of the market’s second tier (beyond Cole and Strasburg) and adding “and everyone pretty much will believe they could afford him.”
Beyond the listed teams in Morosi’s report, it’d be a surprise if the Phillies, Twins, Braves, Yankees, Rangers, Nationals (if Strasburg departs), Dodgers, Blue Jays and others aren’t in play for the righty. Wheeler could draw the most widespread interest of any free agent on the market this winter and will probably be connected to a dozen or more additional teams between now and the time he finally puts pen to paper.
Bloom: “Every Indication” Dustin Pedroia Will Try To Return In 2020
Veteran Red Sox second bagger Dustin Pedroia has given “every indication” that he intends to play in 2020, newly minted chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom tells reporters including Christopher Smith of MassLive.com. Pedroia, 36, underwent a mid-season knee procedure that left his career in doubt.
The issues in Pedroia’s left knee aren’t new, and they aren’t simple. At the time of his most recent surgery, it was far from clear whether he’d even try to resume playing. But Pedroia reported feeling good after going under the knife and is evidently still on an upward trajectory.
It still isn’t fully clear whether Pedroia will end up making a full push back towards the field. Bloom said he hasn’t been fully briefed on the medical situation and has yet to sit down with Pedroia. The front office intends to meet with the long-time Boston star over the next few days, while in Arizona for the GM meetings.
What is known, per Bloom, does seem promising. “Every indication I’ve gotten is he’s feeling good and intending on playing,” the incoming top baseball ops decisionmaker says of Pedroia. “I know he’s working really hard to make sure he’s in as good of shape as possible,” Bloom added.
Pedroia is owed $13MM for the 2020 season and $12MM for the ensuing campaign under his long-term extension. He has appeared in only nine games over the past two seasons, and will be coming back from the most serious in a string of surgeries, so it’s more or less impossible to know what to expect. But the Red Sox can hope that Pedroia will be more than a budget write-off, even if he can’t be presumed to be available — let alone tasked with regular duties. With the organization hoping to shed salary and remain competitive, Pedroia could be a piece of what figures to be a shifting roster puzzle.
Yordan Alvarez, Pete Alonso Win Rookie Of The Year Awards
Astros outfielder Yordan Alvarez and Mets first baseman Pete Alonso were named the rookies of the year in the American and National Leagues, respectively. The former was a unanimous choice, while the latter received top placement from all but one of the ROY voters from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.
It’s a power-packed duo, to say the least. While slugging numbers were up around the game, these two still stood out.
Alvarez, 22, didn’t force his way onto a loaded Astros roster until mid-season. But he still swatted 27 long balls in his 369 plate appearances. And his half-season offensive numbers were … well, astronomical. Among players with at least three hundred attempts, he came in a close second in all of baseball in wRC+ (his 178 just lagged Mike Trout) and slugging percentage (.655, just trailing Christian Yelich).
The 24-year-old Alonso did damage all year long, on both sides of a memorable Home Run Derby victory. He appeared in all but one of the Mets’ games, slugging a league-leading 53 dingers while topping the century mark in runs and ribbies. It wasn’t just counting stats; Alonso wrapped up his debut season with an excellent .260/.358/.583 batting line.
The rest of the American League field fell well shy of Alvarez in output. But that’s not to say there weren’t nice performances. Surprise Orioles hurler John Means landed in second place, another nice bit of recognition for one of the least-likely All Stars in the history of baseball. Brandon Lowe of the Rays, Eloy Jimenez of the White Sox, and Cavan Biggio of the Blue Jays finished 3-4-5.
There was certainly stiffer competition on the N.L. side. Third-place finisher Fernando Tatis Jr. may well have commanded the award (or at least forced a photo finish) had his season not been cut short. And the man in second, Braves hurler Mike Soroka, had his own strong claim to the award. He picked up one first-pace vote after turning in 174 2/3 innings of 2.68 ERA pitching — no minor accomplishment in a season filled with the offensive exploits of so many. Pirates standout Bryan Reynolds landed fourth with his own excellent campaign, while Cardinals hurler Dakota Hudson and Nationals outfielder Victor Robles each also received down-ballot votes.
MLBTR Chat Transcript 11/11/19
Click here to read a transcript of Monday’s chat with Connor Byrne of MLBTR.
Three Teams Exceeded 2019 Luxury Tax Threshold
The Red Sox, Yankees, and Cubs were the three teams to exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2019, as Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times noted over the weekend. MLBTR has confirmed that is the complete and final list of organizations identified by Major League Baseball as owing competitive balance obligations.
Each of those clubs exceeded $206MM in 2019 payroll, as calculated by Major League Baseball pursuant to the rules governing the competitive balance tax. Generally, the CBT calculation looks to the average annual value of player contracts while also accounting for bonuses and other payroll-related expenses. The CBT threshold rises to $208MM in 2020 and then to $210MM in 2021.
Last year, the Red Sox and Nationals surpassed the spending threshold and paid taxes. The D.C. organization managed to duck under the line but could again be in that tax bracket if it spends to defend its World Series title. The Red Sox are expected to try to duck under the limbo bar in 2020. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have now gone two straight years without paying after a five-season streak of tax bills.
Precise calculations aren’t yet available, but Cot’s on Contracts has estimates of the complicated CBT tabulations. Their figures show both the Nats and Dodgers over the line, though obviously those organizations were able to sneak in just below. The Astros and Phillies appear to have been the next-biggest spenders, though both were a fair sight shy of any tax bills.
The Cot’s figures allow us to make some rough estimates of the actual amounts due. The Red Sox will pay the most, as they were the only team to incur tax liability for consecutive seasons, thus raising the rate. With an estimated payroll of just under $240MM, the Boston org will pay 30% on their first $20MM in overages and 42% on the rest, resulting in an estimated bill of just under $12MM.
The Cubs also ran up a tab that came in just shy of the $240MM mark by Cot’s reckoning. They are not a repeat luxury level team and therefore pay the base rate of 20% for the first $20MM and 32% for the next $20MM in salary over the threshold. That would result in a liability of a little under $8.5MM. Cot’s credits the Yankees with $234MM of spending for CBT purposes. Since the Bronx Bombers spent a year shy of the luxury line, they also get first-time treatment and would stand to owe just over $6.5MM.
None of the three teams came close to topping $246MM in payroll, at which point they’d not only have faced a bigger tax rate on further spending but also would’ve seen their top draft pick moved down the board ten spots. But the trio does still face some ongoing impact beyond the money owed. Inking a free agent who declined a qualifying offer will cost a bit more in compensation than it would have otherwise — specifically, $1MM in international amateur bonus pool spending capacity along with the team’s second and fifth-highest draft picks. The rules also suppress the level of compensation available to teams that lose QO’ed free agents after exceeding the luxury line, though none of these three clubs issued qualifying offers this offseason.
Yankees To Name Carlos Mendoza Bench Coach
The Yankees are engineering a change in their bench coach position, according to Sweeny Murti if WFAN (Twitter link). Carlos Mendoza will slide over from his infield coach role to take over for Josh Bard, who has been relieved of his duties.
In other news involving the staff under manager Aaron Boone, the Yankees are expected to bring on Matt Blake as pitching coach and Tanner Swanson as catching coach. Both hirings were previously reported; ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reported Blake’s addition (Twitter link), as we previously covered, while Brandon Warne of Zone Coverage tweeted that Swanson was hired away from the Twins.
Mendoza had worked in his prior role for the past two seasons and obviously impressed the organization. The 39-year-old never cracked the majors as a player but now seems in line for a lengthier tenure as a coach. Bard initially stepped into the bench coach role at the same time Mendoza and Boone first joined the Yankees. The former big-league backstop previously spent time with the Dodgers organization, including one campaign as bullpen coach, after the end of his playing career.
The rest of the staff will remain in the same positions, it seems. Mike Harkey will return as bullpen coach, Phil Nevin and Reggie Willits stay on as third and first base coach, respectively, while Marcus Thames will come back as hitting coach (reports Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). It isn’t clear if the organization will bring in a new infield instructor to take over the role vacated by Mendoza.
Hanley Ramirez To Play In Dominican Winter League
Free-agent first baseman/designated hitter Hanley Ramirez reported to los Tigres de Licey in the Dominican Winter League and will soon be playing in games for the team, reports Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes. Ramirez is on the comeback trail after undergoing shoulder surgery in July to correct a shoulder issue that was said at the time to have been bothering him for “years.”
The 36-year-old said during a radio appearance with 102.5 FM in Santo Domingo that he hasn’t considered retirement and is still hopeful of returning to the big leagues. The DWL will provide a showcase for Major League scouts in that regard, and it’s certainly conceivable that with a decent showing, he’ll parlay that into a minor league deal and an invitation to Spring Training with a team.
Ramirez was released by the Red Sox early in the 2018 season — a surprise move at the time — and opted to sit out the remainder of the season despite receiving interest as a free agent. Upon signing a minor league deal with Cleveland in the 2018-19 offseason, Ramirez revealed that he had wanted to take some time off to allow his body to heal and to put himself in the best shape possible for his next opportunity. He broke camp as the Indians’ Opening Day designated hitter this past March, but the months of rest apparently didn’t do the trick for his shoulder; Ramirez hit just .184/.298/.327 with a pair of homers in 57 plate appearances before being released by the Cleveland organization.
It’s unlikely that any club is going to look at Ramirez as an everyday option in the field at this point, so his best bet is likely to sign with an American League club. Perhaps the forthcoming addition of a 26th MLB roster spot will make NL clubs more willing to carry a part-time first baseman/interleague DH/pinch-hitter, but Ramirez will need to first demonstrate that he can still hit before garnering any type of interest.
Enter The MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest – Deadline Tonight
It’s time for the MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest! Click here to enter your picks for the destinations for our top 50 free agents. The deadline for entry tonight – Monday, November 11th at 11pm central time. You can edit your picks until then. Further contest info:
- After the window to make picks has closed, we’ll post a public leaderboard page so you can see who’s winning the contest as players sign with teams. We’re going to use entrants’ full names on it. So, if that concerns you, please do not enter the contest. Entries with inappropriate names will be deleted.
- We are also collecting email addresses, which I will use to notify winners. I may also use those email addresses to notify you of next year’s free agent prediction contest.
- If a player signs between now and the close of the contest, that’s a freebie, but you still need to go in and make the correct pick.
- After you submit your picks, you’ll receive an email from Google Forms. In that email, you’ll see a button that allows you to edit your picks.
- We will announce the winners on MLBTR once all 50 free agents have signed. We will award $500 to first place, $300 to second place, and $100 to third place. Winners must respond to an email within one week.
- Ties in the correct number of picks will be broken by summing up the rankings of the free agents of the correct picks and taking the lower total. For example: Tim and Steve each get two picks correct. Tim gets Gerrit Cole (#1 ranking) and Tanner Roark (#20 ranking) for a total of 21 points. Steve gets Madison Bumgarner (#6) and Dallas Keuchel (#14) for a total of 20 points. Steve’s total is lower and he’s ahead of Tim for tiebreaker purposes.
If you have any further questions, ask us in the comment section of this post! Otherwise, make your picks now!
Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.
The Cardinals had a middling 58-55 record as late as Aug. 8, yet a blistering stretch run saw St. Louis win the NL Central and end a three-year (lengthy by Cardinals standards) postseason drought. The Cards also defeated the Braves in the NLDS before falling to the Nationals in the NLCS, and the one-sided nature of that NLCS sweep continued the somewhat inconsistent nature of the Cardinals’ season. The focus will clearly be on upgrading the offense as the Cards look to take a step forward and get back to the World Series in 2020.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $130MM through 2024
- Miles Mikolas, SP: $68MM through 2023
- Matt Carpenter, 1B/3B: $39MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $18.5MM club/vesting option for 2022)
- Dexter Fowler, OF: $33MM through 2021
- Carlos Martinez, SP/RP: $23.5MM through 2021 (includes $500K buyout of $17MM club option for 2022; Cards also have $18MM club option for 2023 with $500K buyout)
- Paul DeJong, SS: $22.5MM through 2023 (includes $2MM buyout of $12.5MM club option for 2024; Cards also have $15MM club option for 2025 with $1MM buyout)
- Yadier Molina, C: $20MM through 2020
- Andrew Miller, RP: $14MM through 2020 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $12MM club/vesting option for 2021)
- Kolten Wong, 2B: $11.25MM through 2020 (includes $1MM buyout of $12.5MM club option for 2021)
- Brett Cecil, RP: $7MM through 2020
- Jose Martinez, 1B/OF: $2MM through 2020
Other Obligations
- $4MM owed to the Mariners as part of the Mike Leake trade in August 2017
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Dominic Leone – $1.6MM
- John Gant – $1.4MM
- Non-tender candidates: Leone
Free Agents
Four straight seasons without a playoff berth would’ve led to rumblings about changes within the St. Louis braintrust, though in the wake of the Cardinals’ solid finish, the organization gave contract extensions to president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, GM Mike Girsch, and manager Mike Schildt.
The front office now faces the challenge of upgrading a lineup that already has a lot of personnel in place. One look at the “guaranteed contracts” section above indicates how much money the Cards have already invested in position players, but none of that group showed much at the plate in 2019. Paul Goldschmidt led the pack with a modest 116 wRC+, which was the lowest of his nine-year career and perhaps a red flag given how the first baseman was just signed to a pricey five-year extension last spring.
Kolten Wong (108 wRC+), Dexter Fowler (103), Jose Martinez (101), Paul DeJong (100), Matt Carpenter (95), and Yadier Molina (87) all fell into the average-to-disappointing range in terms of offensive production. This isn’t to say that there wasn’t significant value here — Wong and DeJong are arguably the best defensive middle infield combo in baseball, and Fowler’s season actually represented a solid bounce-back after a disastrous 2018 campaign. But with this core group all likely to return in 2020, the Cardinals have only a few empty positions to add some extra pop to the lineup.
The infield is set with Goldschmidt at first base, Wong at second base, DeJong at short, and Carpenter penciled in at third base and looking to rebound from a career-worst year. Carpenter is another player who signed an extension last spring, and while his track record is strong enough that St. Louis likely might have brought him back anyway under the terms of his original contract (an $18.5MM club option for 2020, which became guaranteed under his new extension), there also isn’t any guarantee that he’ll avoid further decline as he enters his age-34 season.
Carpenter’s struggles made Tommy Edman‘s emergence all the more critical to the Cardinals’ success in 2019. Edman hit .304/.350/.500 in 349 plate appearances as s rookie, getting increased playing time at third base down the stretch in addition to some time spent at second base and in right field. Edman spent the bulk of his minor league career as a shortstop, making him a valuable multi-positional bench piece for the Cards heading into next season. Ideally, the Cardinals hope to use Edman all over the diamond rather than require him to continually step in at third base, since a resurgent Carpenter would go a long way toward rebuilding the offense.
Fowler can play center field in a pinch but is best suited to right field at this stage of his career, thus leaving Harrison Bader as the Cards’ best in-house option up the middle. Bader’s center field glovework is so outstanding that St. Louis could probably live with him as just a defense-first regular, if the rest of the lineup could better pick up the offensive slack. The Cardinals would be overjoyed if Bader replicated his 2018 numbers (107 wRC+ in 427 PA), but if not, the club could go with some kind of a timeshare with Fowler in center. Fowler did play 377 innings there in 2019.
That still wouldn’t be a big solve in a St. Louis outfield that is full of question marks, though it isn’t to say that the Cardinals are short on personnel. Beyond Fowler, Bader, the defensively-limited Martinez, and utilitymen Edman and Yairo Munoz, there’s also top prospect Tyler O’Neill ready for a longer look, Lane Thomas and Randy Arozarena as two more youngsters who looked good in limited action during their rookie seasons, and another star prospect in Dylan Carlson down at Triple-A.
It’s a group that is long on potential, but there isn’t guarantee that that potential will manifest itself in everyday solutions for the 2020 roster. Free agents like Corey Dickerson, Kole Calhoun or other veterans who could be signed to relatively inexpensive shorter-term deals would add some proven ability to the mix.
In terms of longer-term commitments, the Cards have had some recent discussions with Marcell Ozuna’s camp about a possible reunion. The common thinking had long been that the Cardinals would let Ozuna walk in free agency after two decent but unspectacular years in St. Louis, with the Cards collecting a compensatory draft pick via the qualifying offer that Ozuna is likely to reject.
That extra pick could also make the Cardinals more likely to surrender a pick of their own to sign one of the other nine QO free agents. Of that group, Josh Donaldson has long been a Cardinals target, though signing him would create the problem of what to do with Carpenter. Will Smith would help firm up a bullpen that has some ninth inning questions — if Mozeliak and Girsch aren’t hesitant about committing another big contract to a reliever after the underwhelming results from Brett Cecil and Andrew Miller in St. Louis.
Gerrit Cole will likely fall beyond the Cards’ price range, but Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, Jake Odorizzi or even Stephen Strasburg could be targeted in an effort to further solidify an already strong rotation. Jack Flaherty emerged as the Cardinals’ ace down the stretch, while Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson, and Adam Wainwright all provided quality innings.
Wainwright seems likely to be re-signed, but given his age and the shaky peripherals that underlined Hudson’s seemingly sharp 3.35 ERA, one more veteran arm would definitely add some reinforcement to the starting five. Beyond the qualifying offer types, names like Cole Hamels, Dallas Keuchel, or Kyle Gibson would make sense. The grounder-heavy attack of the latter two pitchers would make them particularly good fits for a strong defensive team like the Cardinals.
In terms of in-house rotation depth, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Austin Gomber, or Genesis Cabrera could be deployed as starters or relievers. Former top prospect Alex Reyes is also technically in the mix, but it’s anyone’s guess as to what Reyes could add to the bullpen or rotation after yet another injury-plagued year. At this point, he’s thrown all of 67 1/3 innings between the majors and minors over the past three seasons combined.
Perhaps the more realistic X-factor is Carlos Martinez, who will be given another look as a starting pitcher in Spring Training. Shoulder problems forced Martinez into the bullpen in the last two seasons, though the righty made the most of the situation by delivering some strong numbers in 2019 (3.17 ERA, 9.9 K/9, 2.94 K/BB over 48 1/3 IP) and even taking over closing duties in the wake of Jordan Hicks‘ Tommy John surgery on June 26. Hicks could return late next season.
Depending on what additions are make to the starting five, Martinez might well end up as the closer again, though St. Louis could still look to add another reliever with closing experience to the pen. Smith would be the biggest possible get, but even a lower-tier option like Sergio Romo would be much less costly and perhaps all the cushion the Cardinals need given Martinez’s success in the closer role. Among internal options, Miller has saved some games in the past, and breakout reliever Giovanny Gallegos could also be considered for save situations.
Backup catcher is the most obvious bench need, and re-signing Matt Wieters might be the easiest potential option. The Cards would likely prefer Wieters or another experienced backstop ahead of Andrew Knizner, who made his MLB debut last season and has been tabbed as the Cardinals’ catcher of the future….assuming the ageless Molina ever retires, that is. Molina is looking for a rebound season after his play, particularly his offense, was hampered by thumb problems in 2019.
One wrinkle to the team’s underachieving play for much of the season is that St. Louis might already have a good idea about what some of its assets might net on the trade market. Such players as Carlos Martinez, Jose Martinez, O’Neill, Thomas, and more were mentioned in trade rumors last summer and even last offseason. Given the crowded roster, one can certainly make the case that the Cardinals are well-suited to be a popular figure in trade negotiations this winter.
Aside from Goldschmidt, Flaherty, Molina, and probably Mikolas and Gallegos, it could be argued that every player on the Cardinals’ big league roster could be a trade candidate, depending on how big a splash the club feels it needs. Packaging a young outfielder with Fowler to clear the outfield logjam and get Fowler’s contract off the books? Likewise, maybe packaging a young player with Carpenter, if another team wants to take the risk on a Carpenter bounce-back? Selling relatively high on Wong or DeJong? There are no shortage of scenarios that could be floated, as the Cardinals have an on-paper surplus at multiple positions and have shown the willingness to spend in free agency to address any other roster holes. Currently, the Cards project to an Opening Day payroll of about $162MM, which would match their Opening Day mark from 2019. Trades could lower that total outlay, of course, and it’s possible that ownership is willing to push a bit further on the heels of an NLCS return.
The Cards have more questions than most teams coming off a League Championship Series appearance, but there’s enough talent on hand and enough potential for future moves that they could be one of the offseason’s more fascinating teams to watch.