Draft Compensation For 8 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents
Eight teams issued qualifying offers this year to ten players, with the Nationals and Giants handing out two apiece. Teams issuing the $17.8MM offer must be comfortable with the receiving player accepting, as it isn’t possible to trade such a player (absent consent) until the middle of the season. But in most cases, the offer is given with the expectation it will be declined, thus allowing the issuing team to receive a compensatory draft selection if the player signs with a new club.
As with draft forfeitures, draft compensation is largely tied to the financial status of the team losing the player. And in 2019, seven of the eight teams that issued qualifying offers fall into the same bucket: teams that neither exceeded the luxury threshold nor received revenue-sharing benefits. This applies to the Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, White Sox and Braves. In such cases, the default compensation for losing a qualified free agent is applied.
In other words, if any of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Zack Wheeler, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Josh Donaldson signs with a new club, their former team will receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the 2020 draft. Those selections would likely fall in the upper 70s and low 80s. Slot values in that range of the 2019 draft checked in between $730K and $700K. The Nationals and Giants, then, could add a pair of Top 100 picks and roughly $1.5MM worth of additional pool money each if they lose both of their qualified free agents.
The lone team that stands to gain a potential pick at the end of the first round would be the Twins, who issued a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi. Minnesota is a revenue-sharing recipient that did not exceed the luxury threshold, thus entitling the Twins to the highest level of free-agent compensation possible … if Odorizzi signs for a guaranteed $50MM or more. If Odorizzi’s total guarantees are $49.9MM or lower, the Twins would receive the same level of pick as the other seven teams who issued qualifying offers: between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3.
Of course, if any of the players who received qualifying offers either accept the offer or re-sign with their 2019 clubs on a new multi-year deal, no draft compensation will be awarded to that team at all.
Blue Jays Notes: Gurriel, Starters, Tepera
The latest on Toronto…
- The Blue Jays could consider trading outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr., “especially if it brings the right rotation arm back,” Scott Mitchell of TSN tweets. The 26-year-old Gurriel just put up an impressive season at the plate, having batted .277/.327/.541 with 20 home runs in 343 attempts. The former middle infielder also fared decently in his debut as a major league outfielder, as Gurriel logged minus-2 Defensive Runs Saved with a plus-0.2 Ultimate Zone Rating across 532 innings in left. Between the promising production Gurriel registered in 2019 and his team-friendly contract (he’s owed just $15.9MM through 2023), it seems likely he’d draw plenty of interest if Toronto were to market him.
- The Blue Jays already swung a trade for a starter earlier this month, acquiring right-hander Chase Anderson from the Brewers. While the Jays could continue to explore that route for much-needed rotation help, it also wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club pick up help via free agency. President of baseball operations Mark Shapiro has indicated the Jays have interest in the best starter available, Gerrit Cole, but a match there doesn’t look realistic. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet runs down some more likely possibilities, naming an array of starters whom Toronto could pursue. Zack Wheeler and Jake Odorizzi are a couple on the higher end of the spectrum, though signing either qualifying offer recipient would be expensive from a draft standpoint for the Jays. As Nicholson-Smith notes, adding one of the two could cost the Jays a top 50 pick in 2020.
- As for how the Blue Jays could attract free agents, general manager Ross Atkins contends (via Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi): “The agility of our roster, the depth of our system, the financial flexibility that we have, the leadership of (manager) Charlie Montoyo and the environment of our clubhouse are all very attractive.” Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star argues now is the time for Atkins and the Jays to use their financial flexibility to court Cole or Stephen Strasburg, but he admits ownership – Rogers Communications – would likely stand in the way.
- Reliever Ryan Tepera elected free agency last week after Toronto designated him for assignment, though his Jays tenure might not be done. On the possibility of re-signing Tepera, Atkins said (via Nicholson-Smith): “We maintain interest in him. If there’s a way for him to pitch for the Blue Jays again, we’ll absolutely make that happen.” The 32-year-old Tepera was an important part of the team’sbullpen from 2015-18, but elbow problems hampered him during a 21 2/3-inning 2019 in which he pitched to a 4.98 ERA.
Luke Gregerson, Tony Sipp Hope To Pitch In 2020
Relievers Luke Gregerson and Tony Sipp sat out for large portions of the 2019 season, but that doesn’t mean either veteran is ready to call it quits. Gregerson and Sipp hope to land contracts heading into 2020, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports.
The 35-year-old Gregerson has been especially good since he debuted in the majors in 2009, as his lifetime 3.15 ERA helps illustrate. But injuries have played a key part in stalling the right-hander’s career during the past couple seasons. Gregerson signed a two-year, $11MM contract with the Cardinals entering 2018 and then combined for 18 1/3 innings of 7.36 ERA ball over parts of two seasons limited by hamstring and shoulder issues. The Cardinals released Gregerson back in May, and he hasn’t caught on elsewhere since.
Sipp, 36, had a better 2019 than Gregerson, but that may be not be saying a lot. The Nationals decided in August to cut Sipp, whom they signed to a $1.25MM guarantee going into the season. In the club’s estimation, Sipp wasn’t part of the solution in what was then a maligned bullpen. Of course, the Nats and their relief corps went on to win the World Series two-plus months later without Sipp, who turned in 21 innings of 4.71 ERA/3.55 FIP ball with 7.71 K/9 and 3.86 BB/9.
As has been the case for most of his career, the left-handed Sipp was similarly effective against same- and right-handed hitters alike in 2019. The fact that Sipp has been passable against both could help his cause in trying to secure a contract, as MLB will be going to a three-batter minimum rule in 2020 that should make it especially difficult for lefties who struggle versus righties to find work.
Padres Outright Jacob Nix
The Padres have outrighted hurler Jacob Nix to Triple-A El Paso, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets. The right-handed Nix had been in limbo since the Padres designated him for assignment Nov. 4.
It’s been a difficult several months for Nix, a promising prospect whom injuries and legal issues weighed down this season. While Nix did debut in the majors in 2018, throwing 42 1/3 innings of 7.02 ERA/5.83 FIP ball, he couldn’t improve on that uninspiring production this year because of elbow problems. The 23-year-old ended up combining for 24 1/3 frames among three minor league levels.
When Nix was healthy enough to take the mound in 2019, he was extremely effective, evidenced by his microscopic 1.85 ERA with 10.7 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9. However, an October arrest on criminal trespassing charges represented the latest setback in the former third-round pick’s career. As of now, though, Nix will stay in the San Diego organization and continue trying to work his way back to the majors.
Eddie Rosario Changes Representation
Twins outfielder Eddie Rosario has changed agencies, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports. Roc Nation Sports will represent Rosario going forward.
Rosario, who turned 28 in September, is one of many major leaguers fresh off a career-best season in the power department. Across 590 plate appearances, Rosario smashed 32 home runs, helping the Twins amass a record 307 as a team, and posted a .224 ISO – both personal highs for him since he debuted in 2015. At the same time, though, Rosario struggled more than ever to get on base. He ultimately slashed an uninspiring .276/.300/.500 owing in large part to an inability to draw walks.
While Rosario did strike out at a meager 14.6 percent clip this year, he collected free passes just 3.7 percent of the time. Considering his game’s largely predicated on putting the ball in play, the career-low .273 BABIP Rosario logged was especially deleterious. But if we’re to believe Statcast, Rosario wasn’t really the victim of poor luck in 2019. After all, there was almost no difference between his real weighted on-base average (.329) and his expected wOBA (.330).
Despite his flawed campaign, the counting stats Rosario has put up over the past few years have him in good position as he nears his second-last trip to arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Rosario will earn $8.9MM in 2020, though it’s up in the air whether the Twins will retain the three-time 20-home run hitter or attempt to move him in a trade.
Rosario’s change in representation will be reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains agent info on thousands of Major League and Minor League players. If you see any errors or omissions within, please let us know: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
Nationals Interested In Josh Donaldson
At least six teams are showing early interest in star free agent Josh Donaldson, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays. The World Series champion Nationals are among the clubs eyeing the third baseman, as are the previously reported Rangers, Phillies and Braves, according to Feinsand.
As those who follow the game know, the Nationals have an even higher-profile free-agent third baseman in Anthony Rendon – hands down the best position player on the market. MLBTR forecasts Rendon will land a $235MM guarantee, which trounces Donaldson’s $75MM projection. Thanks in part to the age difference between the two, the soon-to-be 34-year-old Donaldson lacks the appeal of Rendon, 29, though the former nonetheless remains one of baseball’s most valuable players.
Donaldson, a onetime AL MVP, is coming off a 4.9-fWAR season in which he batted .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs across 659 plate appearances. Atlanta signed the ex-Athletic and Blue Jay to a $23MM guarantee last winter after back-to-back injury-limited campaigns, and it proved to be a brilliant short-term gamble by the Braves. Of course, considering the Braves are one of Washington’s division rivals, the Nationals got plenty of up-close looks at Donaldson in 2019. Unsurprisingly, it seems the Nats came away impressed.
While the Nationals may view Donaldson as a legitimate possibility for their hot corner vacancy, odds are they’d prefer to re-sign Rendon. The big-market, high-spending club has two elite free agents in Rendon and right-hander Stephen Strasburg, and after a championship-winning season, it would be a surprise to see both exit. But if Rendon goes, the Nationals may well turn to the highly accomplished Donaldson as a much less expensive fallback option. Meantime, Donaldson has until Thursday to accept or reject the Braves’ $17.8MM qualifying offer. Turning it down looks like a formality.
Brodie Van Wagenen On Mets’ Offseason Plans
Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, who’s in the early stages of a crucial second offseason on the job, spoke to reporters about the team’s winter plans Monday. The club’s on the heels of an 86-win season, its third in a row without a playoff berth. There are obvious need areas on the Mets’ roster, then, but it’s up in the air how aggressive they’ll be this offseason with seemingly limited spending room under the budget of owners Fred Wilpon and Jeff Wilpon.
Infielder Jed Lowrie and outfielder Yoenis Cespedes are among the players clogging up New York’s payroll. Injuries prevented either from factoring in much or at all in 2019, but they (Lowrie – $9MM and Cespedes – $29.5MM) are slated to occupy almost $40MM of the Mets’ payroll next season. Lowrie at least logged some playing time in September, meaning he should be good to go at the start of 2020. However, Lowrie won’t have “a normal offseason considering what he went through last year,” according to Van Wagenen, who noted the Mets have “continued to try to diagnose what Jed’s issues were that kept him out this season” (via Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News). But signs point to the Mets rolling with Lowrie, Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis as their third base options in 2020, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. On paper, that’s a capable trio, and with Robinson Cano at second base and Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto as the Mets’ top two corner outfielders, it would make sense for Lowrie, McNeil and Davis to share the hot corner.
The ongoing presence of Cespedes further complicates the picture in the outfield, but as Van Wagenen said last week, there’s still no indication as to whether he’ll be able to play next year (via Tim Healey of Newsday). Cespedes, the Mets’ highest-paid player, missed all of this season because of ankle issues. If the Mets were sure Cespedes would miss at least 60 days next year, they’d be able to recoup 60 to 70 percent of his money by way of insurance. For now, though, the team doesn’t seem to have any idea as to whether Cespedes will significantly weigh on its payroll going forward.
Regardless of what happens with Cespedes, it seems center field should be a priority for the Mets this offseason. The Mets tried Juan Lagares, Nimmo and Conforto there to underwhelming results in 2019. Lagares is now a free agent after the Mets declined his club option, while Nimmo and Conforto are likely better cut out for corner roles. Indeed, the Mets want to improve their defense in center, per Van Wagenen. Problem is that free agency’s not loaded with obvious solutions at the position, while the best trade candidates at the spot (Pittsburgh’s Starling Marte and Boston’s Jackie Bradley Jr.) earn fairly expensive salaries. That’s without adding in the assets they’d cost to acquire, and it’s worth noting Marte’s coming off a poor year as a defender.
Aside from center field, Van Wagenen cited pitching – both rotation and bullpen – as well as backup catcher as areas the club could address in the coming weeks (Twitter links via Mike Puma of the New York Post, Healey and Thosar). The Mets have one of the highest-profile free-agent starters in the game in Zack Wheeler, whom they issued a $17.8MM qualifying offer. While they’d like to re-sign Wheeler, it’s entirely possible he’ll end up out of the Mets’ price range, which would leave them with a still-enviable top of the rotation in Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz. The team lacks depth after that foursome, though Van Wagenen pointed to David Peterson, Walker Lockett, Chris Flexen and Corey Oswalt as in-house options. If you’re a Mets fan who’s unexcited about the majority of that group, that’s understandable. But Peterson, MLB.com’s seventh-ranked Mets prospect, at least carries some intrigue. The 24-year-old, a 2017 first-round pick, reached the Double-A level this season and notched a 4.19 ERA/3.19 FIP with 9.47 K/9 against 2.87 BB/9 in 116 innings.
As for the Mets’ bullpen, it’s no surprise they’re interested in bettering a bunch that largely fell flat this year. The Mets were aggressive in trying to bolster the unit last offseason, evidenced by the acquisitions of Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson. But Wilson was the only effective member of the trio, and given that the Mets could move either Seth Lugo or Robert Gsellman to their rotation, their relief corps looks like an even bigger concern at the moment.
While it’s unclear how the Mets will configure their pitching staff next year, it seems their hurlers will primarily end up throwing to Wilson Ramos. The veteran catcher was yet another of the Mets’ headline-grabbing pickups from last offseason who may not have delivered as hoped in 2019. But despite his defensive deficiencies, the 32-year-old Ramos did record yet another fine offensive campaign. With $9.25MM owed to Ramos next season, it seems the Mets will continue to ride with him behind the plate and seek a defensively sound complement to place behind him.
The Mets are undoubtedly in for a fascinating offseason. The club’s not short on talent, but there are clear flaws at the same time. If Van Wagenen doesn’t find a way to repair them, and if the Mets miss the playoffs yet again, it’s possible they’ll be on the lookout for a new GM a year from now.
Rangers Exploring Top-Tier Free Agents
The Rangers will enter the offseason with their eyes set at the very top prizes of free agency, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. Whether they’ll come away with any major targets remains to be seen, but the club has now made clear it’ll pursue the biggest names available.
GM Jon Daniels has been circumspect in prior comments, but today he was ready to announce the reemergence of the Rangers as a major open-market player.
“This year, we are going to look at everything,” he said. “Our goal is to get better, period. There are a couple of spots more [available] than others. We have signed [top free agents] before and at some point I have to suspect we will again.”
It certainly stands to reason that now’s the time to jump back in with both feet. As we explored in previewing the Rangers’ offseason, there’s obvious need in the rotation and at third base — the two loaded areas on which this year’s free-agent class. And the club seems to have the payroll space needed to make something big happen, particularly with a shiny new ballpark coming online.
In our ranking of the top fifty free agents, we predicted the Rangers would land a notable third baseman and starting pitcher — while factoring in the market for quite a few of the top free agents. It’s tough to say whether the Texas org will ultimately be a significant player for expected nine-figure free agents such as Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon, but all are plausible targets. Indeed, Grant reports that the club has already chatted with agent Scott Boras about both of those players, which certainly suggests the Rangers want to throw their hat in the ring.
Brian Cashman Discusses Gerrit Cole, Yankees Offseason
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman addressed a variety of topics this evening at the GM Meetings. Chief among them was the starting pitching market. Cashman confirmed to reporters (including Andy Martino of SNY) that the Yankees will engage with Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg this offseason. Cashman added, though, that the club has a significant amount of money already on the books (via Erik Boland of Newsday) and will also explore the trade and lower-tier free agent markets (reports James Wagner of the New York Times).
Clearly, Cashman and his front office are open to whatever opportunities may present themselves and aren’t locked into any specific means of improving the roster. Nevertheless, it’s still notable that the Yankees will engage with the market’s top arms. Cole, in particular, will come at a hefty cost. MLBTR forecasted an eight-year, $256MM deal for Cole, who stands a good chance of securing the offseason’s largest contract. Unsurprisingly, Cole’s camp figures to come out shooting even higher, with ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter) estimating agent Scott Boras’ initial ask will exceed $300MM. While Cole doesn’t ultimately figure to command a price quite that high, bringing him in will no doubt require a franchise-altering outlay.
Signing Cole would certainly require that the Yankees exceed the $208MM luxury tax threshold, as they did in 2019. Cashman added that ownership hasn’t mandated the payroll remain south of the luxury tax (via Martino), although he stopped short of definitively declaring they would pay the penalties for the second consecutive year. The club’s luxury tax estimate already sits at almost $210MM, per Cot’s Contracts, before accounting for any offseason expenditures.
Cashman also addressed the status of three of New York’s own free agents. He confirmed reports the club has engaged with representatives for Brett Gardner (via Wagner), and added that New York remains in touch with reps for Didi Gregorius and Dellin Betances. MLBTR forecasted a Gardner reunion while projecting Gregorius and Betances to wind up elsewhere, although it’s plausible they bring one or both of the latter back.
Clearly, the situation remains in flux at these early stages of the offseason. Cashman didn’t commit to pursuing any specific players and expressed a willingness to evaluate all potential areas of player acquisition, as one would expect. The Bombers will cast a wide net as they look to fortify their roster in hopes of defending their AL East crown, including at least monitoring the very top of the market.
Kyle Gibson Drawing Early Interest
Free agent right-hander Kyle Gibson is drawing solid early interest, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). As many as ten teams have inquired on Gibson in the early stages of free agency, per the report, though it remains to be seen if that’s a reflection of bargain hunting or a budding bidding war.
It’s hardly surprising to hear that multiple teams are intrigued by the former Twins hurler. Over the past two seasons, Gibson emerged as a mid-rotation starter, logging 356.1 innings with a 4.16 ERA with solid strikeout (22.8%) and walk (8.8%) rates. The sinkerballer Gibson has long posted strong ground ball rates as well, and that’s continued even as he’s increased his strikeouts the past two years. As Heyman notes, Gibson’s 2019 season was shaping up as a solid platform effort before a bout with ulcerative colitis coincided with a significant downturn in production in August and September.
Entering the offseason, MLBTR predicted Gibson would land a two year, $18MM deal with the Cubs. Chicago makes sense as a destination, although virtually every team in baseball could look to add staring pitching in some manner this offseason so the market is wide open. Already 32 years old, Gibson certainly won’t approach the earning power of the market’s top options. That said, he’s a reliable source of innings who would fit into numerous teams’ rotations.
It remains to be seen how a complicated rotation market will sort itself out. It’s generally promising that Gibson has received his share of early contact, but clubs are no doubt looking at quite a few options and hoping to maximize their dollars. There are quite a few starers bunched up in the middle of the market on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents.
Some organizations would surely prefer Gibson’s durability and consistency to younger but higher-risk options on the market, like Michael Wacha and Alex Wood. It’s arguable that Gibson has much of the floor of and more ceiling than the steady Rick Porcello, for example. Perhaps some teams will even see some real upside in Gibson, particularly if they believe he can manage his stomach troubles and thrive. If so, he could be one of the arms to break out with some early bidding pressure, though we’ve yet to see any indication whether that’ll be the case.