MLBTR Poll: What Changed For The Nats?
We spend most of our time at this particular corner of the internet focused on payrolls and rosters. The tendency of contemporary baseball analysis is to seek value; to appreciate (in the full sense of the word) the role of fortune and the impossibility of predicting which players will come through in big moments.
But who among us doubts that some have icier veins, or hotter-burning competitive fires? Or that some leaders are better than others at spurring their charges to play at their best … or make the right decision in a key moment? We may not be able to make statistically valid assessments of these characteristics in advance, but it doesn’t feel especially bold to suggest that some players and some teams have more than just a lucky bounce of the ball to credit for their high-leverage triumphs.
That brings us to the topic of this morning’s poll: the Nationals, baseball’s perennial postseason underperformers, who just finished off a stirring run through the National League. You know the essentials of this tale already. The Nats’ four previous divisional series were exceptionally competitive, featuring mind-blowing twists and turns. All ended in defeat for the D.C. team, which always seemed to come up just short at the pivotal juncture.
Not so this time. The Nats came roaring back in the regular season after a dismal start. They returned from the brink of elimination in the Wild Card game against the Brewers, scraping together a comeback against one of the game’s most dominant short-appearance pitchers. They not only pushed the powerhouse Dodgers to a fifth game but won it, overcoming an early deficit and outshining L.A.’s stars in crunch time. And the Nationals finally put to rest their earliest postseason demons — those summoned by Yadi and co. back in 2012 — by thoroughly destroying the Cardinals in a four-game NLCS sweep.
It’s a talented roster, to be sure. But the recent-vintage Nats have never lacked in talent, stars and otherwise. What is actually different this time around? It’s nearly an impossible thing to analyze with any amount of scientific precision. But it’s an essential question to ponder for those that care about winning baseball championships.
I’ve compiled a few … theories, I guess we will call them. What say you? (Poll link for app users.)
How did the Nats flip the narrative?
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Ace trio ... Nats have always had great starting pitching, but not like this 32% (3,066)
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Bye-bye Bryce ... Harper was not the right star to lead this team 25% (2,337)
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Bounce of the ball ... you win some, you lose some; it's just their time 16% (1,549)
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Baby Shark 10% (928)
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Playing without fear ... they're finally an underdog 7% (698)
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Rizzo roster magic ... the GM finally got the right cast of stars and support players 7% (623)
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Davey did it ... the Nats finally have the right skipper in Martinez 3% (331)
Total votes: 9,532
Padres Interview Bob Henley For Managerial Position
In their search for an Andy Green replacement, the Padres conducted an interview with Nationals third base coach Bob Henley, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). This is the first we’ve heard of interest in Henley, who has been the Nats’ third base coach since the start of the 2014 season. Notably, Henley has survived two managerial changes in that time, perhaps reflecting an ability to adapt to the differing leadership styles of Matt Williams, Dusty Baker and now Dave Martinez.
Henley is something of a franchise lifer for the National League champs. His only big league playing experience came with the 1998 Expos, with whom he got into 41 games. Solid MLB numbers notwithstanding, Henley was done as a player by age 30, when he took over as a rookie ball manager in Montreal’s farm system. Henley remained with the franchise upon its move to D.C. and accrued six more years of managerial experience at the lowest levels. Henley transitioned to front office work in 2010, taking over as minor-league field coordinator. After four years in the role, he got his first shot at a big league dugout as Williams’ third base coach, and he’s held that position ever since.
The Padres have cast a wide net in their search for a new manager. In addition to Henley, they’ve spoken with Braves third base coach Ron Washington, former Angels manager Brad Ausmus, Padres interim manager Rod Barajas, and Rangers field coordinator Jayce Tingler. It’s a varied group, as Washington and Ausmus have ample big league managerial experience, while Barajas had none until taking over the Pads’ dugout for the season’s final eight games in the wake of Green’s dismissal. Tingler joins Henley as having no MLB managerial experience, although both (as well as Barajas) have minor-league managing experience. Tingler and Henley have also held active roles in player development departments, which could be especially useful to a Padre club rife with young talent throughout the organization.
You can track all of the managerial rumors and interviews around baseball here.
Pirates To Interview Derek Shelton For Managerial Opening
The Pirates are set to interview Twins bench coach Derek Shelton this week for their managerial vacancy, reports LaVelle Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. We’d heard of Pittsburgh’s interest in Shelton, but all that was previously known was that Rocco Baldelli’s right-hand man had popped up on the Bucs’ radar. Shelton becomes the second known candidate to take the next step of interviewing with the Pirates, joining A’s bench coach Ryan Christenson.
Shelton, 49, joins the 45-year-old Christenson as younger candidates to replace 62-year-old Clint Hurdle, who was fired at the end of the season. Neither Shelton nor Christenson has managed at the big league level before, although each has MLB coaching experience with successful small-market clubs, so perhaps there’s a thread emerging in the Bucs’ candidates. Shelton has been bench coach in Minnesota for two years, surviving the transition from Paul Molitor to Baldelli last offseason. Indeed, Shelton was on the radar for the head Twins’ position himself, although he ultimately elected to stay in Minneapolis after Baldelli got the job instead.
Shelton is also slated to interview for the Mets’ managerial job this week. In addition to bench coaching, he’s got big league experience as a hitting coach, having served in that role in Cleveland and Tampa Bay for a decade. He does have some managerial experience as well, albeit at the lowest levels of the minors. Shelton managed three seasons in the Yankees’ farm system at the beginning of the century, although he’s quite a bit removed from his last time running a dugout.
You can track all of the managerial rumors and interviews around baseball here.
Nationals’ Owner Lerner On Martinez, Rendon
The Nationals enter tonight’s NLCS Game 4 up 3-0 on St. Louis and turning the ball over to Patrick Corbin as they look to complete the sweep. Seeing as only one team has ever blown a 3-0 series lead in MLB history, it’s little surprise Nats’ managing principal owner Mark Lerner is happy with his team’s position. Lerner talked with reporters (including Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post and Mark Zuckerman of MASN) about his club’s “very special” position and fielded questions about the team’s manager and best player.
Interestingly, Lerner told reporters that firing manager Dave Martinez “never crossed (his) mind,” even amidst the club’s nightmarish start. Despite entering the year with high expectations, Washington started the season 19-31, leading to some speculation about Martinez’s future. After all, the Nationals have something of a reputation for being quick to pull the plug on managers. Martinez’s predecessor, Dusty Baker, wasn’t offered a contract extension after the 2017 season despite overseeing a division winner that year, with general manager Mike Rizzo saying at the time that “winning a lot of regular season games and winning divisions is not enough.” It stood to reason that Martinez could’ve been in some hot water after the club missed the playoffs in 2018 and got off to a slow start, so it’s interesting to hear that ownership was never considering a change.
Certainly, any speculation about Martinez’s job status has gone up in flames over the past few months. Washington’s spectacular second half got them to 93 wins regardless, and Martinez’s club is now on the doorstep of the franchise’s first pennant. That’s in no small part to the efforts of Anthony Rendon. The superstar third baseman put up borderline MVP numbers in the regular season, slashing .319/.412/.598 (154 wRC+) with his trademark elite defense at the hot corner. He’s picked up where he left off in the postseason, pairing with Juan Soto to form a two-man wrecking crew in the middle of the Nats’ order.
With Rendon a few weeks from becoming baseball’s most coveted position player free agent, Lerner predictably reiterated that the Nationals would love to keep him in D.C. “We certainly want to keep him. That’s 110 percent,” Lerner said of Rendon. “It’s really in Tony’s and his family’s hands at this point. They have to decide what they want to do. He’s earned that right as a free agent. It couldn’t happen to a better guy. We love him to death.”
“Good team wants to keep its best player” is hardly eye-popping news, and we know the Nats already floated an extension offer to the 29 year-old in the range of $210-215MM, although it’s possible deferrals could’ve held the contract’s actual value a bit below that figure. As Lerner acknowledged, though, there’s little reason for Rendon and his family not to explore their options in free agency at this point.
That’s not to say Rendon’s certainly leaving Washington; he’ll just assuredly speak with other teams as he and his family attempt to find their best fit. Lerner didn’t discuss specifically to what extent the organization would be willing to go to retain Rendon- in all likelihood, even the Nationals don’t know what their exact breaking point would be just yet- but it seems the club will be in the familiar position of lurking in the background while the face of their franchise tests the open market.
Tauchman Available For Yankees If Roster Move Needed
It’s only been five weeks since outfielder Mike Tauchman was diagnosed with a Grade 2 calf strain that came with a six- to eight-week recovery timetable, seemingly ending his season. However, general manager Brian Cashman told Joel Sherman of the New York Post prior to today’s Game 3 against the Astros that Tauchman is “healthy end eligible” to return to the roster, should New York need to place Giancarlo Stanton (or anyone else) on the injured list.
Stanton is currently day-to-day with a quadriceps issue and didn’t start either Game 2 or Game 3 of the current series, but he homered in Game 1 and is hitting .300/.467/.600 thus far in a tiny sample of 15 postseason plate appearances. His bat would be a welcome addition against a potent ‘Stros pitching staff, of course, but playing shorthanded also does the club no favors. That said, putting Stanton on the injured list is no small decision; should the Yankees do so and then advance to the World Series, Stanton would be ineligible to return. Notably, there’s quite a bit of rain in tomorrow’s forecast in New York, and potential postponement could buy the team some time to further deliberate.
Tauchman, 28, was a godsend for the injury-plagued Yankees in 2019. The 2013 tenth-round pick never got an extended look in the Majors with the Rockies, but he stepped up with a strong .277/.361/.504 batting line with 13 home runs, 18 doubles and a triple in 296 plate appearances. Even if Tauchman isn’t added to the ALCS roster, the Yankees would have the ability to reset their 25-man group between the ALCS and a theoretical World Series berth.
Quick Hits: Mendoza, Ross, Martin, Zimmer
Though broadcast entertainment politics usually fall far outside of the MLBTR purview, the current conversations surrounding ESPN’s “Sunday Night Baseball” program could have minor implications for a few front offices around baseball. As explained by Andrew Marchand of the New York Post, two analysts involved with that ESPN broadcast team–namely, Jessica Mendoza and David Ross–faced some conflict of interest issues this season due to their ties to MLB front offices (link). Mendoza, who is an adviser to Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen, and Ross, who works with the Cubs, were barred from entering the Dodgers clubhouse during media availability before games in 2019. It is unclear if other clubs also denied the two clubhouse access.
ESPN is currently considering changes to its Sunday night booth, per Marchand. Though Alex Rodriguez is expected back, Mendoza and play-by-play announcer Matt Vasgersian are projected to have around a “70%” of returning to the weekly national broadcast for 2020. Whether or not Mendoza’s ties to the Mets are the cause of her current up-in-the-air status with the network is not clear, but it will be worth monitoring if she and Ross will be able to return to the program in a similar toe-the-line situation next year–or if the two will be forced to choose between their on-air or front office gigs.
More items of note from around baseball…
- Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun took a statistically inclined look at the 2019 season of Orioles Rule V pick Richie Martin (link). As you might expect for a Rule V pick, Martin’s full-season slash line was pretty unsightly at .208/.260/.322, but Meoli points to a few positives in his month-over-month progress. In particular, Martin cut his strikeout rate by nearly 14% from the first to the second half; the infielder also showed less of a reliance on pulling the ball following the All-Star break. Hitting coach Don Long and assistant hitting coach Howie Clark took pains to simplify Martin’s swing over the course of the year, which will, hopefully, lead to Martin finally capturing the potential that Oakland saw in him when it selected him 20th overall in the 2015 amateur draft.
- Bradley Zimmer of the Indians was politely asked by management to pursue at-bats in winter ball this offseason, but, after grinding through a five-and-a-half month rehab process tied to shoulder surgery, the outfielder wasn’t exactly thrilled at the idea. While the club was concerned that Zimmer, 26, had missed about a season-and-a-half due to various injuries, Zimmer felt an offseason spent at home would serve him better in preparation for 2020. This organization-player dialectic is profiled in a piece from Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com, who concludes that Zimmer will open next season in the minors in search of those lost at-bats (link). It’s an interesting look at the ways in which clubs and players often have to work together to manage and alter expectations due to injury, with the management of mental health and personal/family considerations also playing a factor. Then again, is it possible Zimmer is simply banking on forcing his way into the Cleveland lineup with a hot spring? Though it seems a lifetime ago that Zimmer burst onto the scene with a 1.6 fWAR output in just 332 plate appearances back in 2017, it stands to reason that a strong showing in March might spur the club to shuffle him into the deck above in-house options like Greg Allen or Jake Bauers.
AL Notes: Cole, Edwin
In less than three hours, Astros ace Gerrit Cole will take the field at Yankee Stadium in the hopes of securing his team a 2-1 lead over New York in the ALCS. Judging from quotes made to Scott Miller of Bleacher Report, his teammates are likely to be feeling mighty confident when Cole toes the rubber. “When you have Gerrit Cole on the mound, we win,” Houston manager AJ Hinch told Miller. “We have. We’ve kind of proven that.” Not wrong. Cole, 29, hasn’t lost a decision since May 22 (a date which preceded the Stanley Cup Finals, for reference) and is coming off a Divisional Series performance that saw him strike out 25 of the 54 Rays batters he faced. His success has been so tremendous that even his fellow Astros have begun to muse on just how much money the UCLA product might be in line to receive in free agency this winter. “I think everybody’s looking at that across baseball,” said outfielder Josh Reddick. “Harper money? Machado money? It’s going to be interesting.”
As Fangraphs’ Jay Jaffe points out, only four hurlers–Rick Sutcliffe, Mark Davis, Greg Maddux, and Roger Clemens–have earned a Cy Young award in the season preceding their free agency. Cole is widely expected to become the fifth.
- The Blue Jays may be headed for brighter days next year, now that youngsters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio, and Bo Bichette have arrived on the scene. Could veteran–and franchise icon–Edwin Encarnacion be a steadying presence for that young nucleus in 2020? Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic takes a long look at Encarnacion’s fit as a potential Toronto addition, opining that the hulking slugger could be a more-than-viable replacement for the likely-to-depart Justin Smoak. Encarnacion’s steady power (104 home runs since 2017) and on-base skills (13.0% walk rate in same time frame) would certainly help boost Toronto’s young lineup, although, as McGrath notes, GM Ross Atkins previously said the club might prioritize a first base addition that “can play other positions as well“. Encarnacion, who will be 37 at the start of spring training, has a $20MM club option with New York for 2020, although he figures to have his $5MM buyout exercised.
Latest On Giancarlo Stanton
Oct 15: Stanton is out the lineup once again for Game 3. Said manager Aaron Boone, as relayed in a tweet from MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch: “[Stanton] wants to play. But we’ve also had some real conversations about, you’ve got to be honest with where you’re at. I mean, there is an injury in there.”
Oct 13: Giancarlo Stanton isn’t in the Yankees’ lineup for Game 2 of the ALCS due to a quad strain, manager Aaron Boone told James Wagner of the New York Times (Twitter links) and other reporters. Cameron Maybin will take Stanton’s spot in left field for tonight’s game.
Stanton suffered the injury while beating out an infield single in the second inning of Game 1, though it wasn’t serious enough for him to stop playing. In fact, Stanton even homered in a later at-bat, before finally being replaced by Maybin prior to the bottom of the eighth (seemingly just for defensive purposes). A post-game MRI, however, revealed the strain, hence Stanton’s absence from the lineup. He could still potentially come off the bench to pinch-hit, or play in case of an emergency situation. Boone was hopeful that the slugger would return to the starting nine at some point in the series, perhaps as early as Game 3 if Monday’s off-day provided enough time for Stanton to heal up.
2019 has already been an injury-marred season for Stanton, who played in only 18 games due to a variety of biceps, calf, shoulder, and knee problems, most notably a strained PCL in his right knee. In the wake of such a year (not to mention Stanton’s lengthy injury history in past seasons), this day-to-day quad issue looms larger for him than it would for most other players. To be fair, Boone could be engaging in a bit of gamesmanship against the Astros by not putting any sort of timeline on Stanton’s return, though it also could be that the Yankees themselves are being as cautious as possible with the outfielder’s status. If Stanton is removed from the ALCS roster due to injury, he would be ineligible for the World Series if New York were to advance.
With Stanton sidelined, the Yankees have four outfielders (Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, and Maybin) remaining on their roster, with Hicks himself only just returning from a late-season elbow injury.
Latest On Oakland Stadium Dispute
Sarah Ravani of the San Francisco Chronicle reports new details in the ongoing litigation taking place between Alameda County and the city of Oakland (link). To recap, Alameda County engaged in negotiations with both the city of Oakland and the Oakland A’s organization in an attempt to offload its share of the Oakland Coliseum and the Oakland Arena. With the stipulation that the city would pay upfront, Alameda County offered to sell its share of debt to Oakland for $78MM back in February–that offer was ignored on Oakland’s part.
Interestingly, though, the plot thickened from there: as Ravani characterizes it, that “snub” prompted Alameda officials to pivot to the Athletics, to whom they offered to sell their debt for $85MM. This time, however, the county would allow the A’s seven years to pay off the sum–with the very important caveat that the A’s would have to remain in Oakland. “The A’s were able to spread their terms out … whereas the county wanted us to pay it all up front,” Oakland Councilman Loren Taylor says in Ravani’s article, “From my perspective, we still need to have a conversation about the same terms that the A’s were given.”
The city and county are currently embroiled in a lawsuit intended to block the county from selling its stadium stake to the A’s, which has put something in a wrench in the team’s plans to develop a new stadium project. This state of affairs caused commissioner Rob Manfred to comment that he was “very concerned” at the litigation and the overall lack of “concrete progress” toward a new playing site for Oakland. Oakland Mayor Libby Schaff later indicated to KTVU that Manfred has proposed the possibility of relocation to Las Vegas, with the Chronicle also relaying a similar suggestion on the part of Manfred.
NL Notes: Showalter, Ozuna, Moustakas
For those inclined to believe that Buck Showalter is the perfect man for the Phillies managerial opening, Dan Connolly of The Athletic has a small dose of historical cool water at the ready. In a piece entitled “Buck Showalter is the perfect fit for the Phillies, but there’s potential for a nightmarish ending“, Connolly paints a fine brushstroke portrait of what life in Philadelphia might be like with the veteran Showalter behind the team’s reins. While there are major pros to a potential Showalter hire in Connolly’s mind (including the skipper’s comfort working with stars and his facility with in-game strategy), the reporter draws an interesting parallel to the power dynamics that were present in Baltimore during Showalter’s time there. When he managed the Orioles, Showalter was known to meet with owner Peter Angelos on a frequent basis, which might have led to a strained–or, at least, compromised–hierarchy with Showalter’s titular boss in Dan Duquette. The Phillies, of course, have an owner in John Middleton who appears to be more actively involved than most, with Connolly going so far as to opine that Middleton is “running [the] show” in Philadelphia. How a Middleton-Showalter pairing might affect the position of Philadelphia GM Matt Klentak is a rumination worthy of a quiet Tuesday morning.
More notes from around the NL on the heels of an 8-1 Nationals victory in Game 3 of the NLCS…
- Speaking of that 8-1 ballgame from Monday evening: Mark Saxon of The Athletic feels like it might have seen outfielder Marcell Ozuna finally write himself out of the Cardinals plans moving forward (link). Saxon zooms in on a third-inning fielding gaffe committed by Ozuna last night that ultimately opened the gates on a four-run Nats frame, with the writer labeling the outfielder as “the fulcrum of another embarrassing night in this series of embarrassments for the Cardinals”. The play in question saw Ozuna in go into a pop-up slide in left field in an attempt to catch a flare off the bat of Anthony Rendon, with the ball ultimately popping out of the outfielder’s glove when his butt hit the ground. Though Saxon cites some Statcast data indicating that the ball should have been caught, manager Mike Schildt struck a supportive tone: “It’s not an easy play any time you have to leave your feet and go a distance and slide,” Shildt said. “It’s a play that he’s clearly capable of making, but it’s not a play you absolutely expect somebody to make.” It may be the result of a Game 3 hangover, but Saxon isn’t similarly convinced–in the writer’s mind, it isn’t likely Ozuna will be back with the Cards in 2020. Saxon cites Ozuna’s fundamental lapses, the club’s $138.7MM commitment to just nine players next season, and the looming presence of outfielder Dylan Carlson as factors in what he expects to be Ozuna’s impending free agent departure.
- “I don’t think it’s particularly controversial that I’d love to have both of them back,” said Brewers decision-maker David Stearns in regard to Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas, in an article from Adam McCalvy of MLB.com (link). Both players are expected to decline their halves of mutual options for 2020, with McCalvy relaying that Moustakas’ agent, Scott Boras, described the latter’s $3 million buyout as a “formality”. There is no quote from Boras provided in the article, but, if true, it would indicate with certainty that the 31-year-old Moustakas is preparing to reenter a free agent market that has been notoriously unkind to him in recent years. Moustakas, who has hit 101 home runs over the last three seasons with a 110 combined wRC+, lingered long in the 2018 soup line before receiving a $6.5MM one-year pact with the Royals; 2019 saw him again settle for a one-year deal amounting to $10MM (after accounting for the “formality” of that buyout). This winter should provide a third attempt at the multi-year apple for Moustakas.