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Relief Market Rumors: Kimbrel, Robertson, Britton, Smith, Watson, Giants

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Though Craig Kimbrel was at one point said to be seeking a six-year contract worth as much as $100MM, Fancred’s Jon Heyman writes in his latest notes column that the asking price on Kimbrel has come down a bit. Kimbrel’s camp, however, is still eyeing a contract along the lines of the $86MM and $80MM contracts signed by Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen two offseasons ago. Given Kimbrel’s track record of elite performance, it’s not exactly surprising to see him aiming for a potentially record-setting deal, though it’s important to note that both Chapman and Jansen were younger than Kimbrel when signing those deals more than two years ago. Kimbrel is only three months younger than Chapman and eight months younger than Jansen, which will likely make it difficult for him to secure a contract of that length and total guarantee. The market for Kimbrel remains somewhat undefined, though the Red Sox have some degree of interest in retaining him; Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that Boston is waiting to see what happens with Kimbrel before taking action on the relief market. Heyman, however, notes that the current asking price is still deemed too high by the Red Sox front office.

Some other notes on the market for relievers…

  • Heyman notes that the Red Sox also have interest in David Robertson, though their preference would be to limit a Robertson signing to two years, while the veteran righty is believed to be aiming for a three-year pact. Robertson, 34 in April, is representing himself in free agency this winter and has been connected to both the Dodgers and Mets in recent weeks. Robertson, who has split his career between the Yankees and White Sox, has pitched at least 60 innings and made at least 60 appearances in each of the past nine seasons and is fresh off a 3.23 ERA with 11.8 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 in 69 2/3 innings in 2018.
  • With Andrew Miller reportedly on the verge of a contract with the Cardinals, Matt Gelb of The Athletic tweets that the Phillies’ search for a left-handed reliever in free agency could be down to “Zach Britton or bust,” noting that Britton has numerous teams with serious interest in his services. The Phils were in on both Miller and Britton, with NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reporting last week that the team was “strongly” in the mix for Miller. Britton is, of course, quite familiar to Phillies brass, as president Andy MacPhail, GM Matt Klentak and assistant GM Ned Rice were all in the Orioles’ front office when Britton was drafted and developed. The trade market could certainly present alternatives, though there’s no one with the track record of either Miller or Britton known to be available.
  • Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area tweets that Miller’s impending deal with the Cardinals will have ramifications for the Giants as well. San Francisco has been waiting for Miller, Britton and others to sign before marketing their own left-handed relievers (i.e. Will Smith, Tony Watson). There are numerous hopeful contenders in need of left-handed relief help, and both Smith and Watson are coming off strong 2018 showings. Smith, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.1MM in 2019, will be a free agent again next offseason. Watson, meanwhile, is signed to a guaranteed $3.5MM salary for the 2019 season and is owed at least a $500K buyout on a player option for the 2020 season. Of course, if Watson replicates his excellent 2018 production, he’ll surely turn down that option in favor of a return to free agency. And, if he struggles through a poor season or is injured, he’ll quite likely take that option for the 2020 campaign.

Mariners Sign Zac Rosscup

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The Mariners announced Thursday that they’ve signed left-handed reliever Zac Rosscup to a one-year, Major League contract. The team’s 40-man roster is now up to a total of 38 players.

“When healthy, Zac has swing-and-miss stuff, which has translated at all levels,” general manager Jerry Dipoto said in a statement accompanying today’s announcement. “We look forward to seeing what he can do with good health and real opportunity.”

Rosscup, 30, has indeed demonstrated proficiency in missing bats throughout his career, averaging 11 strikeouts per nine innings in the minors and averaging 11.9 K/9 in 65 2/3 frames at the MLB level. He’s also posted a strong 14.2 percent swinging-strike rate in his MLB career, and though he’s totaled just 18 innings over the past two seasons, those 2017-18 campaigns have been particularly interesting. Rosscup has dramatically increased the usage of his slider in that time, resulting in an eye-catching 30-to-4 K/BB ratio in that time. He’s pushed his swinging-strike rate beyond the 18 percent threshold and his opponents’ chase rate past 37 percent in that small sample of work.

Of course, as Dipoto alluded to, the real question with Rosscup is one of health. Over the past four seasons he’s missed time due to blister issues, a calf injury and multiple instances of shoulder inflammation — one of which resulted in surgery that cost him the entire 2016 season. Rosscup managed just 21 1/3 innings between the minor leagues and the majors this past season and 49 total innings the year prior.

Clearly, there’s ample injury risk as pertains to the lefty, but his ability to generate whiffs is, at the same time, genuinely intriguing. He also still has just three years, 164 days of Major League service time, meaning if he manages to carve out a role in the Seattle bullpen, he can be controlled through the 2021 season via the arbitration process. The Mariners’ bullpen has been thinned out dramatically this winter following trades of Edwin Diaz, James Pazos, Alex Colome and Juan Nicasio as well as the outrighting of Erasmo Ramirez and Nick Vincent. Given that mass exodus of relievers orchestrated by Dipoto & Co., Rosscup should have a fairly straightforward opportunity to prove himself a capable relief option.

Padres Sign Ian Kinsler

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The Padres announced Thursday that they’ve bolstered their infield depth with the addition of veteran second baseman Ian Kinsler on a two-year contract with a club option for a third season. The BBI Sports Group client will reportedly take home an $8MM guarantee in the form of a $3.75MM salary in both 2019 and 2020, as well as a $500K buyout on a $3.5MM option for the 2021 season.

Ian Kinsler Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Kinsler, 36, is a known commodity for Padres GM A.J. Preller, who was an assistant GM with the Rangers during Kinsler’s tenure in Texas. Kinsler will bring to the San Diego organization one of the game’s premier defensive players, though his once-potent offense has tailed off in recent seasons. Since Kinsler’s debut in 2006, only six players in all of Major League Baseball have topped his mark of +118 Defensive Runs Saved. That’s not just a case of longevity, either, as Kinsler ranks fourth in DRS even over the past half decade and turned in a strong +10 DRS in 2018 alone. Ultimate Zone Rating has been similarly bullish on his defensive aptitude.

The 2018 campaign, however, saw Kinsler post a career-worst .240/.301/.380 batting line through 534 plate appearances between the Angels and Red Sox. His bat was only a bit below the league average with the Halos prior to the swap, though his production diminished greatly in 137 PAs with the Red Sox (.242/.294/.311). Overall, however, Kinsler’s premium defense and quality baserunning still led both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs to peg him at a bit more than two wins above replacement. A move to the spacious Petco Park probably won’t help Kinsler’s offense, but his glove and speed give him a fairly high floor at what looks to be a palatable price point.

[Related: Updated San Diego Padres depth chart and Padres payroll outlook]

Kinsler steps onto a Padres roster that, since season’s end, has jettisoned both Cory Spangenberg and Carlos Asuaje. He could get the early bulk of the work at second base in the event that Luis Urias heads to Triple-A for further development or, as MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell suggests (via Twitter) should Urias open the year at shortstop. In somewhat contradictory fashion, though, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the Friars still consider Urias their primary second baseman, adding that Kinsler could work at third base early in the year.

Suffice it to say, the organization may not yet have a defined role in mind for Kinsler, whose ultimate position is likely somewhat dependent on the moves that San Diego makes between now and Opening Day. The Padres do have one of the game’s best overall prospects in shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., though once Tatis and Urias are both in the Majors, Kinsler could slide over to third base on a full-time basis or assume a utility role off the bench. In any event, it seems clear that Kinsler will be counted upon to appear at multiple positions over the life of his Padres tenure.

Kinsler’s addition further calls into question Jose Pirela’s role with the team, though it’s worth noting that the Friars have a full 40-man roster and will need to subtract someone in order to make the contract official. From a payroll standpoint, Kinsler should push the Padres to somewhere in the $83-84MM range for the coming season. The fact that there’s an option year on the deal suggests there’ll be a buyout, and therefore the annual salaries will both likely check in a bit south of $4MM. And the Padres only had about $60.5MM on the books for the 2020 season prior to adding Kinsler.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the agreement (via Twitter). MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reported the option value (Twitter link). Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweeted the annual breakdown of the deal.

Angels Sign Trevor Cahill

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The Angels have added their second starting pitcher of the week, announcing on Thursday that they’ve signed righty Trevor Cahill to a one-year contract for the 2019 season. Cahill, a client of John Boggs & Associates, will reportedly earn a $9MM base salary and can secure an additional $1.5MM via an incentives package. Specifically, the deal is said to pay him $250K for reaching each of 100, 110, 120 and 130 innings, and he’d notch another $500K upon reaching 170 innings. He’d also reportedly land a $250K assignment bonus in the event that he’s traded.

Cahill will now join the also recently signed Matt Harvey as a rental starter in Anaheim. That seems to be a good outcome for the team, which will promise the pair a combined $20MM without extending its obligations past the 2019 season.

Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that both Cahill and Harvey would command two-year, $22MM contracts. While the early returns on the rotation market were relatively promising, the more recent market markers have been suboptimal from the players’ perspective, with several hurlers securing less years than might have been anticipated.

Cahill, who’ll open the 2019 season at 31 years of age, has certainly not been the steadiest option in recent years, but he has shown some fascinating skills. Since returning to the rotation following a bounceback 2016 in a relief capacity, Cahill has struck out nearly a batter per inning while drawing grounders near his career 55.0% rate.

Outside of some late-’17 struggles, Cahill has been quite productive of late. He ended up giving the A’s 110 innings of 3.76 ERA ball last year, with peripherals to match — including a career-high 11.7% swinging-strike rate. Of course, DL stints again left cause for concern, which surely hurt Cahill’s bid for multiple seasons in free agency.

It’s certainly possible to look at the Angels rotation mix now and imagine a solid, cost-efficient unit. Andrew Heaney and Tyler Skaggs both showed well last year, while Jaime Barria and Felix Pena established themselves as solid options as well. Nick Tropeano is still around and will hope for a bounce back after some struggles upon returning from Tommy John surgery. JC Ramirez could return from the same procedure at some point. Luke Farrell, Miguel Almonte, and Dillon Peters represent depth pieces.

That said, it’s tough to see that as a high-grade unit even in the most optimistic of scenarios. And all of the team’s most-accomplished starters come with major recent health issues, including the two newest acquisitions. In a sense, it’s a continuation of last year’s approach of hoping to get enough innings from enough worthwhile pitchers to add up to a quality overall staff. It didn’t really work out in the aggregate. And now the highest-upside pieces are gone, with Garrett Richards and Matt Shoemaker out of the organization and Shohei Ohtani getting comfortable with a new ulnar collateral ligament.

The Halos reportedly pursued more notable targets, reportedly falling short in bids for both Patrick Corbin and Nathan Eovaldi earlier this winter. It’s still possible the club will continue angling for other arms, with Dallas Keuchel available in free agency and a few potential notable trade candidates, but it could also be that the club is now done with its rotation-building efforts. If that’s the case, then perhaps GM Billy Eppler will turn to other avenues to improve. The bullpen, catching unit, and position-player bench mix could all stand to be improved. Perhaps it’s not out of the question to imagine a surprise run at a high-level bat, though we’ve seen no real indication of that to this point.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the agreement and the terms (via Twitter). Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and Jon Heyman of Fancred added details on the incentives and assignment bonus (Twitter links).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Padres Designate Clayton Richard For Assignment

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The Padres announced Thursday that they’ve designated southpaw Clayton Richard for assignment, which will clear a spot on the 40-man roster for veteran second baseman Ian Kinsler, whose previously reported two-year contract with San Diego has now been formally announced.

Richard, 35, inked a similarly affordable two-year pact with the Friars prior to the completion of the 2017 season — jumping at the opportunity to guarantee himself multiple years as opposed to exploring the open market in his mid 30s. Richard received that two-year reward at the tail end of a season in which he proved a durable ground-ball machine, pitching 197 1/3 innings of 4.79 ERA ball that came with more promising peripherals. That season, Richard averaged 6.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and 1.09 HR/9 to go along with a gaudy 59.2 percent ground-ball rate. Fielding-independent pitching metrics such as FIP (4.26), xFIP (3.76) and SIERA (4.06) all graded him out much more favorably than his ERA.

The 2018 version of Richard wasn’t all that different in terms of K/BB and ground-ball tendencies, and his home run rate was a mirror image of that 2017 rate. Richard, though, did take a slight step back in terms of strikeouts, control and grounders, though, and because his contact-oriented approach leaves little margin for error, his ERA jumped to 5.33 in 158 2/3 innings. Fielding-independent metrics still liked Richard better than his ugly ERA, but there’s no denying that his 2018 performance was diminished across the board.

More troubling Richard’s outlook is the fact that his season was preempted in August when he went under the knife to alleviate left knee troubles that had plagued him since early in the season. While there’s no indication that Richard is expected to miss significant time in 2019 as a result of the operation, the procedure nonetheless further casts doubt on his ability to function as a stabilizing innings eater moving forward.

San Diego will be on the hook for a $3MM salary for Richard in the coming season unless the organization is able to find a trade partner or Richard is claimed on waivers. The latter scenario seems particularly unlikely, given that $3MM commitment, as an interested team could simply opt to let Richard clear waivers, take his release, and then sign for the league minimum of $555K. If Richard does land with a new team, the Padres will be off the hook for the pro-rated portion of that $555K for any time Richard spends at the big league level.

Phillies To Sign Shane Robinson

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The Phillies have agreed to a minor-league deal with veteran outfielder Shane Robinson, according to the latest minor transactions from Matt Eddy of Baseball America. Terms of the arrangement are not known.

Robinson, 34, has appeared in nine MLB campaigns, though he has never yet reached 200 plate appearances in a single season. In total, he carries a modest .221/.288/.292 slash over 849 plate appearances.

Clearly, that’s not going to get the job done, but Robinson has nevertheless found opportunity owing to his well-regarded work in the field and on the bases. It’s fair to note, too, that he has at least shown himself to a be a competent batsman at the Triple-A level, where he owns a .279/.336/.382 line in parts of nine seasons of work.

Rangers, Derek Holland Discussing Possible Reunion

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The Rangers are discussing a reunion with free agent lefty Derek Holland, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The hurler is said to be “intrigued” at the possibility of returning to his original professional organization.

Holland’s time with the Rangers came to a disappointing end after the 2016 season. He had battled through injuries but not proven capable of recapturing his former promise, leading the club to decline an option and bring an end to the extension he had signed just before the 2012 campaign.

That looked like a wise call after Holland’s forgettable 2017 showing with the White Sox, which left him sifting through minor-league offers in the ensuing winter. Holland wisely settled on a match with the Giants, who had ample and early opportunity on offer.

As it turned out, Holland would turn in more productive innings tan he had since way back in 2013, which stands as his most successful season in the bigs. The lefty worked to a 3.57 ERA in 171 1/3 innings in San Francisco, with a career-high 8.9 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9.

Now 32, Holland is certain to draw MLB offers from multiple teams. He showed an ability to function as both a starter and reliever while sitting at a 10.1% swinging-strike rate that’s near his career peak. As Grant points out, the veteran hurler was outstanding against same-handed hitters, who managed only a .164/.252/.189 batting line against him, so there’d certainly be some intriguing possibilities even if Holland is not utilized as a rotation piece.

MLBTR predicted that Holland would secure a two-year, $15MM deal, though it’s worth noting that some other similarly situated starters have failed to secure second seasons of guaranteed money. Of course, the Rangers themselves somewhat surprisingly promised a third year to Lance Lynn, who was recently added to the staff. The nature and degree of the club’s interest in Holland may well depend upon the outcome of its recent talks surrounding fellow southpaw Mike Minor.

Joe Smith Undergoes Surgery For Torn Achilles Tendon

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The Astros announced today that righty Joe Smith has undergone surgery for a ruptured Achilles tendon in his left leg. (H/t Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, via Twitter.) It will sideline him for an estimated six-to-eight month stretch, putting a large chunk of his 2019 season in jeopardy.

Needless to say, that’s most unwelcome news for both player and team. Smith, 34, is said to have suffered the injury in a recent workout. The 34-year-old is slated to earn $8MM for the 2019 campaign, his second in Houston since signing a two-year deal last winter.

Smith, a crafty sidearmer who has held opposing right-handed batters to an anemic .215/.280/.311 batting line over his dozen MLB campaigns, would surely have been a part of the ’Stros pen again in 2019. Last year, he worked to a 3.74 ERA with 9.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. He was tough to square up, as usual, but did allow nearly 1.4 homers per nine — about twice his career average.

Of course, it’s only fair to note that the organization will have a bevy of alternatives, particularly if it makes some rotation additions that bump other players into relief contention. Smith, in fact, was not much of a factor in the club’s postseason mix, cracking the roster but making just one appearance (which did not go well). Still, he’s a quality veteran performer and it always hurts to carry a salary commitment that doesn’t provide production. The Astros will have to hope that Smith is able to recover relatively quickly and provide a mid-season boost.

MLBTR Poll: Likeliest Landing Spot For Manny Machado

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Star infielder Manny Machado is rolling into Philly today after previous stops in Chicago and New York. That’s the extent of his 2018-19 winter tour, so far as is known, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t keen interest. The White Sox seem inclined to make a splash, the Yankees are squared up against some other powerful teams in the AL, and the Phillies face lofty expectations. Plus, there’s ongoing chatter about a mystery team, though there are conflicting reports on that score.

As things stand today, what’s the likeliest landing spot for Machado? (Response order randomized. Link for app users.)

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