Phillies Sign Andrew McCutchen
THURSDAY: McCutchen will earn $10MM in 2019, $17MM in 2020, and $20MM in 2021, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The Phillies, then, were obviously willing to tie up more of their future payroll space on this signing, though it’s hard to gauge just what that portends for the remainder of their offseason.
WEDNESDAY: The Phillies have announced the agreement.
TUESDAY, 6:20pm: McCutchen’s option for 2022 is worth $15MM and comes with a $3MM buyout, Heyman tweets.
1:46pm: The Phillies have a deal in place with free agent outfielder Andrew McCutchen, according to Matt Gelb of The Athletic (Twitter link). The agreement is still pending a physical.
McCutchen will reportedly receive a three-year, $50MM contract that includes an option for a fourth season. Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter), who first broke the news that the sides were in serious talks, reported the years, with Jon Heyman of Fancred reporting the guarantee and option year (Twitter links).
This contract lands above MLBTR’s predicted value for McCutchen, but falls right in line with our expectations of a three-year, $45MM pact. We had ranked Cutch just behind fellow open-market vets A.J. Pollock and Michael Brantley, each of whom remains unsigned at this stage.
For the Phillies, this is a stage-setting move that fills one need and creates quite a few new opportunities. The organization previously dealt for Jean Segura, meaning GM Matt Klentak has now slotted in new corner outfield and shortstop pieces — without moving on top free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. That’s not to say that pursuit of one of those players is out of the question at this point, but the Phils are certainly also now positioned to look elsewhere if they so desire. Certainly, there’s also an argument to be made that these splashes only make it more reasonable for the club to go big on another free agent.
There are innumerable possibilities, still, for the Phils. The team could conceivably deal just about any of its preexisting outfielders. Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Aaron Altherr, Dylan Cozens, and Roman Quinn would all hold some degree of appeal elsewhere. Surely some of those players will remain, but the Philadelphia organization will likely seek to rearrange some other pieces to make further moves possible. In addition to several still-youthful position players, top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez has evidently been talked about in trade chatter, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link).
What’s clear, though, is that McCutchen will step into the Philadelphia lineup on most days in 2019. He certainly represents a quality addition, even if he’s no longer the superstar that he was when he was playing with the cross-state Pirates.
Since wrapping up a forgettable 2016 campaign, McCutchen has turned in consecutive solid seasons with the bat. In 1,332 plate appearances over the past two season, he’s slashing a combined .267/.366/.455 with 48 long balls. McCutchen did lag in the power department in 2018, with a year-over-year isolated slugging drop from .207 to .169, but made up for it with a 13.9% walk rate that’s just shy of his career peak.
McCutchen won’t be an option in center for the Phils, though his long experience there could come in handy at times. After a solid debut season in right field last year, he’ll be an upgrade defensively for a club that received atrocious glovework in the outfield last year from Rhys Hoskins, who is moving back to first base. If there’s one area that McCutchen slid most notably, though, it was in the baserunning department. Once a standout, he graded at a putrid -5.0 BsR in 2018. Of course, he also still swiped 14 bags, so perhaps that broader performance is more a blip than an indicator of a significant loss of athleticism.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Pitching Notes: Gray, Lynn, Morton, Breslow
The Yankees are asking for “high-end Major League talent” in exchange for Sonny Gray, George A. King III of the New York Post hears from an official on a team interested in acquiring the right-hander. This isn’t the first time we’ve heard of the Yankees’ steep asking price for Gray, though as King notes, it may be a while before a trade emerges unless the club is willing to lower its demands. One can’t blame the Yankees for aiming high, and there’s certainly enough interest in Gray that the team can shop around, though the Yankees may not have quite enough leverage to make such a big ask. Intriguing peripherals notwithstanding, Gray did have a 4.90 ERA last season, and he has become even more of an expendable piece now that the Yankees are on the verge of re-signing J.A. Happ. With Happ, Luis Severino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, and C.C. Sabathia all in the fold, there isn’t even any room for Gray in New York’s rotation if the club hangs onto him until Opening Day.
More on the ever-developing pitching market…
- The Nationals were considering Lance Lynn for their rotation, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports (via Twitter), but they weren’t willing to give the veteran righty the three-year guarantee Lynn seems to have found from the Rangers. Lynn would have filled the rotation spot left open now that Tanner Roark has been dealt to the Reds, though with Lynn off the board, Washington will keep looking at other veteran arms.
- The Twins weren’t one of the teams interested in Charlie Morton, according to 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson (Twitter link). Minnesota is known to be on the lookout for pitching, though the Twins have thus far been more focused on position player additions (i.e. Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron) than new arms. The Astros, Rangers, and Rays were the only teams known to be looking at the veteran right-hander, who agreed to a two-year, $30MM guarantee with Tampa Bay yesterday. One would imagine more teams beyond just that trio checked in on Morton, given the righty’s impressive numbers over the last two seasons.
- Veteran southpaw Craig Breslow is considering retirement, and has been talking with the Red Sox and other teams about non-playing jobs, NBC Sports Boston’s Evan Drellich writes. The 38-year-old Breslow pitched in the Blue Jays’ minor league system in 2018, and wasn’t able to crack the big league roster in order to add a 13th Major League season to his resume. Breslow has long been seen as a candidate to move into a front office, managerial, or coaching role once he decided to hang up his spikes, and he is exploring all options as he considers whether or not to move onto this next stage or to continue pitching.
Athletics Notes: Davis, Murray, Martin, Rule 5 Draft
Some items out of Oakland….
- The A’s aren’t expected to revisit extension negotiations with Khris Davis until later in the offseason, though the two sides will surely talk prior to the January 11 deadline for exchanging arbitration figures. Davis is projected to earn $18.1MM in 2019, his final year before free agency, though Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle points out that Oakland stands a decent chance of retaining Davis for 2020 via the qualifying offer. A longer-term deal still could be attractive for the Athletics, however, as a way of saving themselves some money in overall average annual value. A source tells Slusser that the length of an extension “is far more important to Davis than the annual value of the contract,” as Davis surely would like some long-term security given how the free agent market has somewhat harshly treated bat-first players over the last two years.
- Heisman Trophy winner and A’s draft pick Kyler Murray pointed towards the Athletics as his future destination, telling reporters (including KFOR.com’s Dylan Buckingham) Wednesday that, “As of right now, I’m going to play baseball. That’s about it.” Murray had given some recent indications that he could reconsider an NFL career in the wake of his star performance as Oklahoma’s quarterback this season, though yesterday’s statement would seem to indicate that he is ultimately preparing to join the Athletics’ farm system once his collegiate career is over. Scott Boras, Murray’s agent, also more or less said as much when speaking to MLB.com’s Jane Lee and other media members Wednesday at the Winter Meetings. “When you win the Heisman Trophy, you are going to have a lot of information come to you and be looked at,” Boras said. “All I know is Kyler has a tremendous opportunity to be a great baseball player. He knows that, and I think that opportunity is already in place. He has every intention to be in Spring Training and advance that interest.” Murray was the ninth overall pick of the 2018 draft, and his A’s contract (which included a $4.66MM bonus) allowed him to play football for Oklahoma this season.
- In a preview of today’s Rule 5 Draft, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America writes that A’s shortstop prospect Richie Martin is rumored as the Orioles‘ choice as the draft’s first overall pick. Oakland picked Martin 20th overall in the 2015 amateur draft, and after dealing with knee problems during his first three pro seasons, Martin broke out to hit .300/.368/.439 over 509 plate appearances for Double-A Midland in 2018. The Athletics couldn’t find room for him on the 40-man roster, however, and now the team stands a good chance of losing Martin in the Rule 5 Draft, be it the Orioles or another interested club. Any team that takes Murray must keep him on their Major League roster for the entire 2019 season, or else offer him back to the A’s for $50K. Cooper’s piece is well worth a full read for a look at some of the intriguing young players who could be Rule 5 picks today at 11am CT.
Minor MLB Transactions: 12/13/18
The latest minor moves from around the baseball world…
- The Red Sox re-signed infielder Tony Renda to a new minor league deal, Baseball America’s Matt Eddy reports. After playing in 32 games for the Reds as a rookie in 2016, Renda didn’t make it back to the majors until this season, when he appeared in a single game for Boston. The lone appearance was a notable one, as Renda entered the game as a pinch-runner in the 10th inning and scored the winning run in a 5-4 win over the Yankees on August 5. (Renda even received a World Series ring for his modest contribution to Boston’s championship season.) After hitting a combined .318/.373/.453 over 292 PA at the Double-A and Triple-A levels in 2018, Renda will return to the organization after being outrighted after the season.
- The Lotte Giants of the KBO League have announced new contracts for left-hander Brooks Raley and right-hander Jake Thompson for the 2019 season. (Hat tip to MyKBO.net’s Dan Kurtz for passing on the news.) Raley will receive $1.17MM for his fifth season in South Korea, where he has been a solid rotation piece for the Giants. A former Cubs draft pick, Raley tossed 38 1/3 innings for Chicago in 2012-13 and hasn’t since been back in the big leagues. Thompson will head to the KBO after being designated for assignment off the Brewers roster last summer and ultimately let go into free agency. Formerly a well-regarded prospect for the Phillies, Thompson never found much consistency at the MLB level, posting a 4.87 ERA over 116 1/3 frames for Philadelphia from 2016-18. Thompson will receive $760K in guaranteed salary, with another $140K available in incentive bonuses.
Cardinals Rumors: Harper, Martinez, Rays, Pena, Pitching
The Cardinals have discussed Bryce Harper as part of their talks with Scott Boras about the agent’s various clients, though it remains to be seen if the Cards are truly pursuing the free agent outfielder, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. St. Louis wasn’t one of the teams that asked for a private meeting with Harper and his camp in Las Vegas, for instance. As part of a wide-ranging talk with Goold and other reporters yesterday, Boras didn’t rule any team out of the Harper sweepstakes, and made particular mention of the Cardinals’ resources. “This is about winning and it’s about a good franchise and ownership, and the reality of it is that franchise is worth billions of dollars and they’re a top-10 revenue team,” Boras said.
Here’s more on the Cardinals’ offseason pursuits…
- Jose Martinez has received a lot of trade interest from rival teams, GM Michael Girsch told reporters (including MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch and The Athletic’s Mark Saxon). The Cardinals have explored various possibilities for a Martinez trade, including moving him for relief pitching or even simply a prospect package. Though Martinez has hit very well in his brief career, he doesn’t have an everyday role in St. Louis now that Paul Goldschmidt is occupying first base, and Marcell Ozuna and Dexter Fowler are in the corner outfield spots. Keeping Martinez as a backup at all positions is also less than ideal given Martinez’s poor defense. As part of a reader mailbag piece, Goold mentions that the Rays have had interest in Martinez in the past, and could be a fit again since Martinez is probably best suited for DH duties on an American League team. The right-handed hitting Martinez would be a nice complement to Tampa’s current left-handed hitting first base/DH mix of Jake Bauers and Ji-Man Choi.
- Goold covers a wide variety of Cardinals questions in his mailbag piece, and he also mentions that the team has been in touch with Francisco Pena about returning as the backup catcher. Jesus Sucre and Rene Rivera are also mentioned as names who could be comfortable with the limited playing time that comes with backing up workhorse catcher Yadier Molina. Goold cites former Oriole Caleb Joseph as one available catcher who is looking for a larger portion of playing time.
- The Cards haven’t been active on the starting pitching market, according to Goold, since the team is largely comfortable with its current rotation depth. Adding another starter can’t be totally ruled out if the right fit can be found at the right price, though the Cardinals generally seem to feel that there isn’t a clear enough upgrade available at a price point that works for them.
NL West Rumors: Lynn, Roark, Giants, Cervelli, Dodgers, Reds, Greinke, Padres
A busy day of pitching transactions included Tanner Roark being traded from the Nationals to the Reds, and free agent Lance Lynn nearing an apparent agreement with the Rangers. Those moves take two potential Giants targets off the board, as Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reported that San Francisco had interest in its own Roark deal, while The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly noted that the Giants had interest in Lynn before his reported price tag (three years and $30MM from Texas) rose too high for their liking. The Giants are known to be exploring reinforcements for a rotation that has still has Madison Bumgarner as the ace, but a lot of inexperience and question marks in the rest of the starting five.
Some more from around the NL West…
- The Dodgers have been in touch with the Pirates about catcher Francisco Cervelli, MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick reports. Coming off a solid 2018 season, Cervelli has received trade interest from several teams. The 32-year-old is only under contract through 2019 (at $11.5MM in salary), so that type of short-term fit could appeal to a Dodgers team that has top catching prospects Keibert Ruiz and Will D. Smith getting closer to cracking the MLB roster. In addition to starters like Cervelli, Gurnick notes that L.A. is also looking at “fallback options” like veteran catcher Nick Hundley.
- The Dodgers have been heavily linked to the Reds in trade talks, and while Yasiel Puig has prominently featured in these rumors, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter links) hears that Puig hasn’t been involved in one of the latest proposals. This version of a deal would see Matt Kemp and Alex Wood go to Cincinnati in exchange for Homer Bailey, which would shave roughly $13MM off of the Dodgers’ luxury tax payroll calculations since Kemp’s contract has a higher average annual value than Bailey’s deal. Given Bailey’s struggles and injury problems over the last few seasons, one would imagine L.A. might pursue something more substantial back (i.e. a prospect or two) rather than pure salary relief, though it’s worth noting that the Dodgers acquired Kemp last offseason in a deal that certainly appeared at the time to be simply a bad contract swap. Clearing some luxury tax room would likely also allow the Dodgers to make another big-ticket addition.
- Zack Greinke might not be dealt until the trade deadline, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets, as the Diamondbacks feel they could get more for the ace right-hander in July than they could now, with so many other starters available on the market. Those other pitchers also don’t come with Greinke’s hefty $95.5MM contract attached, making it difficult for the D’Backs to find a trade partner at the moment.
- With the Padres hunting for a utility infielder, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link) suggests a few options with ties to the organization. The Rangers’ Jurickson Profar or the Diamondbacks’ Nick Ahmed would make sense as trade targets, as GM A.J. Preller is very familiar with Profar from their time together with the Rangers, and Ahmed was a “favorite” of manager Andy Green when Green was on Arizona’s coaching staff. Veteran free agent Daniel Descalso could also be a fit.
AL East Notes: Kimbrel, Sox, Mets, Yankees, Sanchez, Rays, Elias
Agents representing some of the top available relievers have been told by the Red Sox that the team is waiting on Craig Kimbrel before deciding on other bullpen options, NBC Sports Boston’s Evan Drellich reports. This would seemingly run counter to other recent reports, as Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently stated that the team wasn’t planning to spend big on a closer, while Kimbrel is reportedly looking for the priciest contract ever landed by a relief pitcher. Obviously some gamesmanship could be at work here, as Drellich notes, and he suggests that a shorter-term and potentially backloaded contract with a high average annual value could be a fit for both sides. This would give Kimbrel a big payday while also reloading the Boston bullpen while the club is in a win-now window, as several notable stars are set for free agency in the next year or two.
- In another chat with media today, Dombrowski told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter links) and other reporters that was happy with his starting outfielders and his catching mix, and wasn’t looking to make any changes. In regards to the latter position, the Red Sox have received at least some interest in their catchers from the Mets (as per MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo) as New York continues to explore secondary plans if the club can’t land J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins.
- Even after agreeing to a reunion with J.A. Happ today, Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters (including Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News) that the team isn’t necessarily done adding starting pitching. The Happ deal “gives me more comfort,” Cashman said, though “It doesn’t mean that we would be out of the market all together….That doesn’t preclude us from being open minded to any other options that develop over time. In the meantime, it does allow us to pivot and focus further on other aspects of our roster, too.” Some of the bigger-name pitchers associated with the Yankees, however, don’t appear to on the radar at the moment. Sources tell Ackert that the Yankees balked at the Indians‘ asking price for Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer, while another source describes a trade with the Mets for Noah Syndergaard as “extremely unlikely.”
- In trade talks with the Diamondbacks about Paul Goldschmidt, “the Rays were willing to at least discuss” the possibility of dealing outfield prospect Jesus Sanchez, the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin writes. Preseason prospect rankings had Sanchez as a consensus top-60 minor leaguer in all of baseball, and the now-21-year-old outfielder continues to move up the Rays’ ladder, making his Double-A debut in 2018. Moving such a youngstar even from a deep farm system would’ve been a bold move for just one year of Goldschmidt’s services, yet Topkin believes it could be a sign of how seriously Tampa Bay is prepared to pursue elite talent. This could be a hint towards the Rays’ ventures towards other notable trade targets, such as perhaps Realmuto.
- There still isn’t any solid word about Brandon Hyde as the Orioles‘ new manager, as GM Mike Elias didn’t even confirm that Hyde received an offer during today’s session with media (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko). “In my position I can’t be out in front of events or the one who’s naming names or specifying timelines in public, obviously. But I think we’re in good shape. I’m hopeful that we’ll be able to have a good hire in due time,” Elias said.
Pitching Notes: Nats, Jays, White Sox, Athletics
The Nationals already seemed like a possible ongoing pursuer of starting pitching before trading away Tanner Roark; now, it’s all but inevitable that the club will add another new arm. Veteran free agents Wade Miley and Anibal Sanchez are both on the Nats’ radar, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links), though it’s not clear whether either is particularly likely to land in D.C. Both hurlers turned in excellent results in 2018 after overcoming injuries, with the latter relying on his ability to induce groundballs and the latter finally overcoming his home run woes. Sustainability remains a question, of course, as each has had his share of struggles in seasons prior.
- Whether the Nats will also be exploring higher-end pitching options isn’t yet fully clear, but president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo did say today that the club is performing “due diligence” on Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, as Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com tweets. Given the wide interest that the 27-year-old has drawn to this point, it seems safe to assume the Nationals are at least open to making another significant rotation addition this winter.
- It’s still far too soon to know how the market will develop for Kikuchi, but we keep hearing of teams that wish to be involved to some degree. The Blue Jays intend to sit down with the 27-year-old lefty, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter), adding another organization. Though the Toronto club in no way profiles as a 2019 contender — most of the talk has surrounded its possible marketing of its own pitching — it surely has designs on a fairly quick bounce back and may view Kikuchi as a nice target to provide some good innings both now and in the future.
- White Sox GM Rick Hahn says he’s not likely to add a significant starter via free agency (via James Fegan of The Athletic, on Twitter), but that evidently won’t stop him from checking in at the top of the market for relievers. The Chicago organization has “shown interest” in veteran hurler Adam Ottavino, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports on Twitter. It’ll likely cost a pretty penny to reel in the talented right-hander, who is also a clear target for more obvious contenders, though perhaps the White Sox will plan to offer him and others a chance to work as the closer.
- It seems the Athletics are contemplating another bullpen buildout after succeeding with that strategy in 2018. Rosenthal tweets that the organization is interested in a reunion with Jeurys Familia, who certainly also ought to draw quite a few hits from other teams, particularly since he only just turned 29. While the rotation is an obvious need in Oakland, Rosenthal says it’s one that’s likelier to be met at a later point in the offseason — with “inexpensive” arms. It sounds as if the A’s won’t be driving the market on any of their top free agent targets. The search for diamonds in the rough paid out handsomely last winter, but hitting it rich again will surely be a challenge.
Craig Kimbrel Reportedly Asking For Nine-Figure Contract
We’ve heard very little to this point about the market for veteran closer Craig Kimbrel. That may be due to his eye-popping asking price: over $100MM, per Jayson Stark of The Athletic (Twitter link).
Kimbrel and his reps at SportsMeter are obviously shooting for a record-breaking pact, at least as a starting point. It had previously been reported that the 30-year-old hurler was looking for six years, which has never before been secured by a reliever on the open market.
To this point, the largest and longest relief pitching contract is the five-year, $86MM Aroldis Chapman deal with the Yankees. That level of pay is obviously reserved for the truly elite relief arms — those few who, like Kimbrel, have been utterly dominant for extended stretches of time.
When the 2017 season came to a close, a nine-figure promise seemed well within reach for Kimbrel, who for the fourth time threw at least sixty innings of sub-2.00 ERA ball — and did so with an insane combination of 126 strikeouts against just 14 walks. He induced swinging strikes on just under one in five of the pitches he threw while maintaining a career-high 98.7 mph average fastball velocity.
Unfortunately, the final year of Kimbrel’s contract — an extension long ago inked with the Braves, then traded to the Padres and on to the Red Sox — was not to that standard. Kimbrel ended the 2018 campaign with a 2.74 ERA in 62 1/3 innings, with an excellent but hardly otherworldly mix of 13.9 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9. He still pumped 97.5 with the heater, though that was the first time he had dipped below a 98 mph mean heater since 2013.
Most worrying of all was Kimbrel’s uncomfortable postseason effort. It’d be silly to make too much of some brief struggles, and it all worked out in the end, but we’re talking about marketing a player as an unmatchable finishing piece for a team that wants to win it all.
There’s little doubt that Kimbrel’s October scuffles dented his armor a bit, though he also shouldn’t be counted out for a return to glory. Two of Kimbrel’s least-effective seasons have come among the past three, but he’s still unquestionably among the game’s very best relief pitchers. And his durability has been exemplary as well.
Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Kimbrel would set a new record, but only for average annual value for a reliever contract rather than total guarantee. It remains to be seen how things develop, but it’s notable that he’s aiming quite high to open the market.
MLBTR Chat Transcript: Murphy, Ottavino, Tulowitzki, Winter Meetings
Click here to view the transcript for MLBTR Chat With Jason Martinez: December 12, 2018