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Diamondbacks Sign Garrett Hampson To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | January 31, 2025 at 1:10pm CDT

Utilityman Garrett Hampson has signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks, per an announcement from the team’s Triple-A affiliate, the Reno Aces. Hampson will be a non-roster invitee in spring training with the Snakes next month.

It could be a homecoming for Hampson, a Nevada native who starred at Reno High School before playing college ball at Long Beach State and going to the Rockies in the third round of the 2016 draft. He’s a veteran of seven big league seasons who spent the 2024 campaign in a utility role with Kansas City.

The Royals signed Hampson to a one-year, $2MM contract last winter and plugged him into a bench role. He appeared in 113 games and tallied 231 plate appearances as a Royal, hitting just .230/.275/.300 along the way. That was a notable drop from a solid 2023 showing in Miami, where Hampson hit .276/.349/.380 in a similar sample of playing time with the Marlins.

Hampson is one of the game’s fastest players, ranking in Statcast’s 99th percentile for sprint speed last year as he covered 29.8 feet per second at top speed. He can play second base, shortstop, third base or any of the three outfield spots. He’s drawn average or better marks at all six spots in his career.

However, Hampson has rarely provided much value in the batter’s box; he’s is a lifetime .240/.301/.362 hitter in 1762 plate appearances despite playing a huge portion of his home games at the hitter-friendly Coors Field. By measure of wRC+, his bat has been 38% worse than average in the majors. He’s been better against lefties (.254/.321/.398, 85 wRC+ in his career), and Hampson touts a lifetime .312/.371/.448 slash in 121 Triple-A games.

Right-handed hitters Blaze Alexander, Grae Kessinger and Tim Tawa are the top utility candidates on the D-backs’ 40-man roster at the moment. Alexander didn’t hit all that well in his rookie season (.247/.321/.343), and Tawa has yet to make his MLB debut. Kessinger was acquired from the Astros after being designated for assignment and has a .141/.243/.213 slash in 70 big league plate appearances. Hampson will provide some non-roster competition for manager Torey Lovullo’s bench mix over the course of spring training.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Transactions Garrett Hampson

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Padres, Michael King Avoid Arbitration

By Steve Adams | January 31, 2025 at 12:06pm CDT

The Padres announced Friday that they’ve avoided arbitration with right-hander Michael King, coming to terms on a one-year deal with a mutual option for the 2026 season. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that King will be guaranteed $7.75MM, taking the form of a $3MM signing bonus, just a $1MM salary, and a $3.75MM buyout on a $15MM mutual option. King can boost his guarantee to $8MM, as the contract includes a $50K bonus for reaching 20 starts and bonuses of $100K for reaching 25 and 28 starts. The structure of the deal will perhaps free up a bit of 2025 budget for a payroll-crunched Padres club. King and his reps at Excel Sports Management had filed for an $8.8MM salary. The Padres countered at $7.325MM.

While the arrangement nominally extends the window of control over King, mutual options are at best a technicality; they’re almost never picked up by both sides. The player either outperforms the option value and declines in favor of a trip to free agency, or he underperforms and/or sustains an injury that prompts the team to decline and move on. It’s been more than 10 years since two parties agreed to exercise their end of a mutual option (Matt Belisle, Rockies in Nov. 2013).

Still, by including a mutual option on the contract, the Padres technically stick to the near-leaguewide file-and-trial mantra, wherein teams cut off negotiation on one-year deals once salary figures are exchanged. King’s deal is, of course, a one-year contract — but the presence of the option renders it moot for future arbitration negotiations. Even though there’s virtually no chance of the option being exercised, its mere presence means that King’s agreement cannot be used as a comp (for the Padres or for other clubs) when negotiating contracts with players who are comparable in terms of statistics or service time.

King, 29 (30 in May), was acquired from the Yankees as one of five players in last season’s Juan Soto blockbuster with the Yankees. He’d been primarily a reliever prior to his inclusion in that swap, though a terrific nine-start stretch late in the 2023 season had thrust him into the Yankees’ rotation plans. Instead, he had his first full season as a starter in San Diego rather than the Bronx, and the results were outstanding. In a career-high 173 2/3 frames, King turned in a 2.95 ERA with a 27.7% strikeout rate, an 8.7% walk rate and a 40.4% ground-ball rate. He now sports a 2.91 ERA in his past 392 2/3 innings, spanning the 2021-24 seasons.

As a free agent following the season, King’s name has floated around the rumor circuit for a Padres club that has had payroll questions all offseason. San Diego hopes to contend in 2025, so the only way they’d move King (or rotationmate and fellow pending free agent Dylan Cease) would be if the return included an immediate rotation replacement and additional big league-ready talent. Teams in search of rotation help will continue to inquire, as it seems inevitable that the Padres will eventually make some kind trade to free up payroll space and simultaneously plug some roster holes.

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Mickey Moniak Wins Arbitration Hearing Versus Angels

By Steve Adams | January 31, 2025 at 11:57am CDT

Outfielder Mickey Moniak won his arbitration hearing against the Angels, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. He’ll be paid the $2MM sum at which he and his reps from Wasserman filed rather than the team’s $1.5MM submission.

It’s the first trip through arbitration for Moniak, the No. 1 pick from the 2016 draft. He’s coming off a down showing in 2024 that saw him slash just .219/.266/.380 across a career-high 418 plate appearances. He played all three outfield spots (albeit only seven innings in left field), hit 14 homers (plus 17 doubles and a pair of triples) and swiped eight bags in a dozen attempts.

Moniak had a big year in 2023 — his first full season with the Angels after coming to Anaheim in the Aug. 2022 trade that shipped Noah Syndergaard to the Phillies. He hit .280/.307/.495 (114 wRC+) with 14 long balls in 323 plate appearances for the ’23 Halos, although those results looked dubious and unsustainable at the time. Moniak’s production came in spite of a sky-high 35% strikeout rate and was aided by a similarly bloated .397 average on balls in play. He walked in only 2.8% of his plate appearances and posted the highest swing percentage of any player in MLB (min. 300 plate appearances) but the fifth-worst contact rate. Sure enough, his output at the plate came crashing down in 2024.

Even if that 2023 season was largely smoke and mirrors, the results are in the books, and they surely benefited Moniak in his arbitration case. As such, any future arbitration raises will be based on a larger starting point ($2MM) than would’ve been the case had he lost his hearing ($1.5MM). He’ll be arbitration-eligible twice more and is under club control with the Angels through the 2027 season. He’s ticketed for a bench role in 2025, backing up the outfield trio of Taylor Ward, Mike Trout and Jo Adell.

Moniak was one of three Angels players to exchange arbitration figures with the team earlier this month — and one of 17 total players to do so throughout MLB. The Halos have since avoided arbitration with southpaw Jose Quijada, agreeing to a one-year deal with a 2026 club option. Infielder Luis Rengifo, who filed at $5.95MM to the team’s $5.8MM counter, is the final Angels player whose arbitration case remains unresolved.

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Cubs Agree To Minor League Deal With Brad Keller, Finalizing Deal With Brandon Hughes

By Steve Adams | January 31, 2025 at 11:41am CDT

The Cubs have agreed to a minor league deal with right-hander Brad Keller, as first reported by Cubs Insider’s Jacob Zanolla. He’ll be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee next month. They’re also finalizing a minor league pact to bring left-handed reliever Brandon Hughes back to the organization, per Patrick Mooney of The Athletic.

Keller, 29, quickly emerged as one of the better Rule 5 picks in recent memory when the Royals plucked him out of the D-backs’ system back in 2017. From 2018-20, he was a productive fixture on Kansas City’s staff, eventually sliding in as a set member of the rotation. In those three seasons, he logged 360 1/3 innings of 3.50 ERA ball with a 16.8% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate. Both those marks were worse than league-average, but Keller posted a strong 52.1% grounder rate and proved adept at dodging hard contact and keeping the ball in the park.

In 2021, Keller’s results deteriorated in a hurry. He still made 26 starts and ate up 133 1/3 innings, but his walk and ground-ball rates checked in at career-worst levels as his ERA spiked to 5.39. His ERA in 2022 was again north of 5.00 in a similar sample of innings. By 2023, Keller’s command issues had elevated to calamitous levels. He issued 45 free passes in 45 1/3 innings, doling out a base on balls to 21.3% of his opponents. He was eventually diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome and underwent season-ending surgery.

In 2024, Keller split the year between the White Sox and Red Sox. He spent the bulk of his season in Triple-A, where he logged a combined 3.28 earned run average, 21.1% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and 54.5% grounder rate between the two organizations. His big league work was much rougher. In 41 1/3 frames, Keller was tagged for a 5.44 ERA with a 16.7% strikeout rate. His walk and ground-ball rates were strong, however, respectively landing at 7.6% and 50%.

Hughes, 29, looked on the cusp of breaking out with the 2022 Cubs. He pitched 16 2/3 shutout innings between Double-A and Triple-A before being called to the majors for 57 2/3 innings of 3.12 ERA ball as a rookie. He was too homer-prone, averaging 1.72 round-trippers per nine frames, but by season’s end he was closing down games for the Cubs, tallying eight saves. He fanned a strong 28.5% of opponents against a solid 8.8% walk rate.

Knee troubles tanked Hughes’ 2023 season, as he pitched only 13 2/3 innings with an ERA north of 7.00. His minor league work was no better, as opponents tagged him for 11 runs in just 11 innings. He underwent a debridement procedure in his left knee that June and was on the injured list until September. The Cubs non-tendered him in November, and he signed a minor league deal in Arizona. Hughes made it back to the majors with the Diamondbacks but clearly wasn’t right. He posted an 8.15 ERA in 17 2/3 big league frames, though his 2.03 earned run average in 48 Triple-A innings creates some more reason for optimism.

Both Keller and Hughes will be in the mix as bullpen depth this spring, though Keller could also serve as depth for the starting staff. The Cubs have added Ryan Pressly and Eli Morgan to the ’pen by way of the trade market this winter and also inked free agent southpaw Caleb Thielbar to a big league deal. That trio will join Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller, Nate Pearson, Julian Merryweather and Keegan Thompson as relief candidates. Each of Miller, Merryweather and Thompson is out of minor league options, so they’ll need to make the Opening Day roster or else be traded or designated for assignment (ultimately passing through waivers if they’re to have any chance of being sent to Triple-A). Trevor Richards, Phil Bickford, Ben Heller and Brooks Kriske are among the other veteran arms who’ll be in camp on non-roster deals.

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Chicago Cubs Transactions Brad Keller Brandon Hughes

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Mets Have Shown Interest In Mark Canha

By Darragh McDonald | January 31, 2025 at 11:11am CDT

The Mets offered free agent outfielder Mark Canha a non-guaranteed deal at some point this offseason, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. That clearly wasn’t enough to push an agreement over the finish line, but it does indicate some interest from his former club.

Canha, 36 next month, has been a solid regular for many years now, but unsurprisingly, his production has dipped as he has moved into his mid-30s. Last year, between the Tigers and Giants, he stepped to the plate 462 times. His 11% walk rate and 20.8% strikeout rate were both a bit better than average, but he only hit seven home runs, his lowest tally in a full season since 2017. His .242/.344/.346 batting line led to a 102 wRC+, indicating he was 2% better than league average overall. He also stole seven bases without being caught and provided roughly league average defense, both in the outfield corners and in first base.

As recently as 2022, his first with the Mets, he was able to slash .266/.367/.403 for a 126 wRC+ and produce 2.6 wins above replacement. But in 2023, split between the Mets and Brewers, he dropped to a 111 wRC+ and 1.7 fWAR. Last year, he was down to the aforementioned 102 wRC+ and 1.0 fWAR.

It’s perhaps not the most exciting profile, but Canha now stands as one of the better outfielders still available. Juan Soto, Jurickson Profar, Teoscar Hernández, Anthony Santander, Tyler O’Neill, Michael Conforto, Max Kepler and others have all come off the board. What remains is a collection of players with narrower skill sets and notable weaknesses, such as Canha, Alex Verdugo, Randal Grichuk, Jason Heyward, Harrison Bader, Ramón Laureano and others.

At worst, Canha still seems capable of playing a small-side platoon role. He has fairly neutral splits in his career but has hit lefties better more recently. Last year, he slashed .229/.330/.327 against righties but .275/.380/.394 against southpaws, leading to respective wRC+ tallies of 94 and 124. He has enough defensive versatility to play all four corner spots, though he would only be an emergency option at third base, with just 29 career innings there.

The Mets have a somewhat crowded infield mix at the moment but still seem open to possible changes. Soto and Brandon Nimmo will have regular work in the corners. Jose Siri and Tyrone Taylor will likely battle for playing time in center. They also have Starling Marte and Jesse Winker. Those two are likely best suited for the designated hitter slot but they also can play the outfield some. Marte’s name has been in trade rumors and the Mets are reportedly willing to pay down some of  his remaining contract to facilitate a deal. The first base situation is also a bit up in the air with Pete Alonso unsigned, though it seems likely that Mark Vientos would take that spot if Alonso signs elsewhere, leaving third base open for one of Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio or Luisangel Acuña.

Despite all those in-house outfield options, they reportedly expressed interest in both Hernández and Profar before they signed their respective free agent deals in L.A. and Atlanta. That suggests that adding depth, perhaps in conjunction with a Marte trade, is a path they have considered.

Canha wouldn’t be expected to be as impactful as either of those two this year, which is likely why the Mets only offered a non-guaranteed deal. But given that he was still a useful player in 2024, it’s not surprising that he is still holding out for a better offer elsewhere. The Twins have been seeking a right-handed bat to help in the outfield corners and possibly at first base. The D-backs could use a righty complement to a primarily left-handed outfield group. The Red Sox are also known to be looking for a righty bat. And, of course, spring injuries could create new opportunities for Canha before long.

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New York Mets Mark Canha

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Lance Lynn Has Drawn Interest As Reliever

By Steve Adams | January 31, 2025 at 10:23am CDT

Veteran right-hander Lance Lynn has pitched in 364 big league games — 340 of them starts. He hasn’t come out of the bullpen since the 2018 season, when he made all of four relief outings. Since 2019, he ranks 15th among all big league pitchers in games started. Be that as it may, Lynn himself tells Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that multiple teams have reached out to his representatives at Headline Sports to inquire about his willingness to pitch in relief — possibly as a closer.

For much of his career, Lynn was as bankable a source of 30-plus starts as the game had to offer. He did miss the 2016 season due to Tommy John surgery, but in every other 162-game season from 2012-21, he averaged 31 starts. His 13 starts in the shortened 2020 season led Major League Baseball. Outside of that one major arm injury, Lynn was the consummate workhorse.

Knee injuries began to dog the right-hander in 2021, however. He hit the injured list at the end of August that year and wound up making “only” 28 starts with 157 innings pitched as a result. The following April, he underwent surgery to repair a torn tendon in his knee. He was limited to 21 starts in 2022 but still notched a solid 3.99 ERA in 121 2/3 frames after returning in mid-June. Lynn again made 32 starts and topped 180 innings in 2023 — albeit with poor results (5.73 ERA). His 2024 campaign, however, saw him hit the injured list on two different occasions owing to inflammation in that surgically repaired right knee.

Over the past three seasons, Lynn has pitched 422 1/3 innings. He’s averaged 25.333 starts per season. Lynn posted sub-4.00 ERAs in 2022 and 2024, but his rocky 2023 campaign balloons his earned run average in that three-year span to a much rougher 4.71. His strikeout rate and velocity have declined incrementally in that three-year period, although even his 2024 levels (21.3 K%, 92.3 mph average four-seamer) are still passable.

A move to the bullpen for Lynn could be intriguing for a number of reasons. He’s long been an extreme fastball pitcher — the rare arm who can succeed with minimal secondary offerings. Since 2017, Lynn has thrown a curveball for 7% of his offerings and his changeup at a 4.3% clip with an even less-used slider (1.4%). The rest of his pitches have been four-seamers (45.3%), sinkers (22.5%) and cutters (19.5%) — all ranging from 88.5 mph (cutter) to 93.4 mph (four-seamer).

A move to the ’pen would presumably bump Lynn’s heater back upward. He’s never been a true flamethrower but did average a career-high 94.6 mph on his four-seamer back in 2019. Relievers generally have an easier time getting by with a two-pitch arsenal; Lynn could feasibly rely on a four-seamer/cutter combo working out of the bullpen. They’ve been his two most effective pitches, on a rate basis, throughout his career.

There’s no guarantee Lynn signs as a pure reliever, of course. His 2024 season yielded solid results even when pitching as a starter. The volume wasn’t there, but he logged a 3.84 ERA in his 23 starts. The Cardinals generally limited him to five frames per outing, though; he only recorded an out in the sixth inning or later in seven of his 23 trips to the mound. A team looking for an effective five-and-dive starter at the back of the rotation could still bring Lynn into the fold, but at a time when reliever-to-starter conversions are en vogue, he’s an interesting candidate to try the opposite approach.

It’s not known which clubs have looked into Lynn as a possible closer, though speculatively speaking, a budget-crunched club like the Rangers — who already know Lynn well — would be an intriguing fit. The D-backs are still seeking a closer but are already running a club-record payroll after their shock signing of Corbin Burnes.

Rosenthal adds that there are clubs interested in Lynn in his more traditional rotation role. He’d be a relatively low-cost option for teams hoping to pile up some affordable innings. The Padres, Brewers and A’s all speculatively fit that billing. But at the very least, Lynn sounds open to the idea of pitching in a late-game role. He described his reaction to his agent’s initial presentation of the concept: “I went, ‘Oooooh. Is the second act, the final act of my career, closing games?’ It sounds fun.”

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Uncategorized Lance Lynn

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Kendall Graveman Generating Interest

By Darragh McDonald | January 31, 2025 at 9:22am CDT

Right-hander Kendall Graveman missed the entire 2024 season due to shoulder surgery, but ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reports that the veteran reliever is now healthy and generating interest in free agency as the bullpen market continues to pick up steam late in the winter. MLBTR’s Steve Adams adds that Graveman was cleared to begin throwing late last season and has had a normal offseason program. He’s expected to be ready for spring training and Opening Day.

A team signing Graveman would be betting on a bounceback. He was a solid starter earlier in his career but missed the 2019 season recovering from Tommy John surgery and converted to a relief role after that. He had a strong run prior to his most recent injury. From 2021-22, he threw 121 innings for the Mariners, Astros and White Sox, allowing 2.53 earned runs per nine. He struck out 25% of batters faced, gave out walks to 9.1% of opponents and generated grounders on a hefty 54.3% of batted balls.

His 2023 was a bit uneven. Starting the year with the White Sox, his 10.8% walk rate with Chicago was a bit elevated, but not alarmingly so. He pitched to a 3.48 ERA with the Sox, tallied eight saves and eight holds, and punched out a roughly average 22.6% of batters faced. After getting dealt back to the Astros in exchange for catcher Korey Lee, he walked 16.7% of opponents down the stretch. His 25% strikeout rate and 2.42 ERA were both sharp, but the command was clearly lacking. Beyond the uncharacteristically high number of free passes, his ground ball rate was only 38.7%, a big drop from the previous seasons.

The Astros left him off their ALDS roster due to some right shoulder discomfort. In January of 2024, it was announced that he required surgery on the shoulder and would likely miss the entire season. In hindsight, perhaps that injury explains some of this 2023 struggles, as the velocity on all his pitches dropped relative to 2022.

Graveman is now 34 years old. He missed all of last year and didn’t post his best numbers the year prior. There’s certainly risk in signing a pitcher in this position, but it could turn into a nice upside play if he’s able to stay healthy and get back to his previous form.

The last time Graveman was a free agent, in the 2021-22 offseason, he signed a three-year, $24MM deal with the White Sox. Based on what has happened over the past couple of years, he’ll surely be limited to something far less this time around — likely a low-cost one-year deal with incentives based on innings pitched (and possibly games finished).

The relief market has picked up significantly this month. The Cubs and Reds acquired Ryan Pressly and Taylor Rogers, respectively, in trades over the past week. Six different free agent relievers have signed eight-figure deals in the past few weeks: Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, A.J. Minter, Kirby Yates, Andrew Kittredge and José Leclerc. Another six relievers signed in the $3-8MM range: Tommy Kahnle, Paul Sewald, Chris Martin, Ryne Stanek, Caleb Ferguson and Jorge López.

Pitchers like Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, Kyle Finnegan and others are still out there but likely to earn notable salaries, to varying degrees. Others, including Robert Suarez, Ryan Helsley and Camilo Doval, could be available in trade, though acquiring any one of them would require giving up young talent and/or taking on money. Graveman represents a more affordable alternative — one with far less certainty than the bulk of available arms but also a good bit more upside than most of the relievers who’ve yet to sign. In total, from 2021-23, he posted a 2.74 ERA with 51 holds, 24 saves, a 24.5% strikeout rate, a 10.4% walk rate and a 48.9% grounder rate.

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Uncategorized Kendall Graveman

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

By Darragh McDonald | January 31, 2025 at 8:58am CDT

MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

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The Opener: Moniak, Yates, Cease

By Nick Deeds | January 31, 2025 at 8:34am CDT

As January comes to a close, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:

1. Moniak, Angels await arb decision:

The Angels and outfielder Mickey Moniak went to an arbitration hearing yesterday, as noted by the Associated Press. Moniak filed for a $2MM salary in 2025 while the Angels countered at $1.5MM. Moniak appeared to break out with the Angels in 2023 when he hit a strong .280/.307/.495 (114 wRC+) in 85 games, but the former No. 1 pick fell back to Earth in 2024 with a meager .219/.266/.380 (79 wRC+) line in 124 games as his BABIP cratered from an unsustainable .397 to just .272 year-over-year. Moniak is the first position player to go to a hearing this year. Pirates righties Johan Oviedo and Dennis Santana were the first two players to do so. Oviedo lost his case against Pittsburgh, while Santana’s decision is still pending.

2. Yates press conference:

The Dodgers officially signed right-hander Kirby Yates to a one-year deal yesterday, adding him to the 40-man roster at the expense of veteran righty Ryan Brasier. The club will be holding an introductory press conference at 11am local time this morning where Yates and (presumably) members of the Dodgers front office will be available to answer questions. The presser could shed some light on the closer situation in L.A. given that both Yates and fellow offseason signee Tanner Scott are established closers coming off excellent seasons. There’s been no indication which one the Dodgers plan on using in the ninth inning to this point, though one would imagine that the larger contract for Scott signifies that he’ll get the nod most days. Both pitchers have thrived in setup and closing roles, however, so manager Dave Roberts could also opt to use them interchangeably, as the situation dictates.

3. Will Cease’s market heat up?

The Padres have long been expected to make a trade or two this winter in order to free up space in the budget to address the club’s holes around the roster, and yesterday brought some increased chatter in that corner of the market. Specifically, right-hander Dylan Cease has reportedly been the subject of inquiries from both the Cubs and Mets. The Cubs have long been known to be on the hunt for rotation upgrades, even after adding southpaw Matthew Boyd in early December, but their only other addition has been veteran swingman Colin Rea. The Mets, meanwhile, have signed a number of starters this winter but lack impact at the front of their rotation and are already planning on using a six-man staff for 2025 that could make fitting Cease into the mix fairly easy (especially if a starter like David Peterson went the other way — speculatively speaking). A recent poll of MLBTR readers suggested that a slim majority of fans believe that San Diego should trade Cease, whether that be on his own or in addition to fellow rental starter Michael King. Could a deal get done before spring training?

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The Opener

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Blue Jays Sign Max Scherzer

By Darragh McDonald | January 30, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

The Blue Jays officially announced their one-year deal with Max Scherzer. The Boras Corporation client reportedly receives a $15.5MM salary with no deferrals and a full no-trade clause.

Scherzer is obviously a legend in the game and a future Hall of Famer. He debuted back in 2008, has almost 3,000 innings in the majors with a 3.16 earned run average, three Cy Young trophies, eight All-Star selections and two World Series rings.

The question is what he has left in the tank at this point. He is now 40 years old and coming off an injury-marred season. He started 2024 on the injured list while recovering from offseason back surgery. Though he recovered from that, he also battled a nerve issue in his hand, shoulder fatigue and a strained hamstring throughout the season. He was limited to just nine starts and 43 1/3 innings.

That obviously creates some concern but Scherzer has been remarkably durable throughout his career. In each full season from 2009 to 2023, he made 27 or more starts and logged at least 145 1/3 innings. From 2013 to 2018, he had six straight seasons of hitting the 200-inning plateau. In short, 2024 was the first season of his career where he missed significant time.

Even though the volume of his output was low, some of the results last year were still decent. He posted a 3.95 earned run average over those nine starts. His 22.6% strikeout rate was a drop for him personally but still around league average, while his 5.6% walk rate was still a very strong mark. His velocity was down as well on his fastball, going from 93.7 miles per hour in 2023 to 92.5 mph last year.

There are obviously some yellow flags in there but it’s of course possible that better health could lead to some better results. It’s a bit of a gamble for the Jays but this is clearly the market rate for a veteran pitcher with some question marks. Each of Justin Verlander, Charlie Morton and Alex Cobb secured one-year deals worth $15MM this offseason. Scherzer symbolically got past that group with an extra half mil.

There are many ways in which Verlander and Scherzer are similar, given their lengthy careers full of accolades. The two have also crossed paths many times, as they were both in the Detroit rotation just over a decade ago, before reuniting with the Mets more recently. Verlander’s 2024 was also injury-marred, though with perhaps some more concerning numbers. His 17 starts and 90 1/3 innings were more than Scherzer managed but Verlander had a 5.48 ERA and his strikeout rate dropped all the way to 18.7%. Verlander is also a bit older, about to turn 42 next month.

Cobb is only 37 but he only managed three starts last year, plus two more in the playoffs, thanks to his own maladies. He also doesn’t quite have the same legendary track record as Scherzer or Verlander. Morton, who is now 41, managed to make 30 starts for Atlanta last year but he seemingly limited his market by having a preference for clubs with spring training sites near his family in Florida.

The Jays have been connected to just about every available free agent this winter. That has included some high-profile position players like Juan Soto, Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, as well as starting pitchers like Roki Sasaki, Max Fried and Corbin Burnes. There were obviously some frustrating misses in there, but the club has had a couple of strikes more recently. In the past three weeks, they’ve added Anthony Santander to their lineup, Jeff Hoffman to their bullpen and now Scherzer to the rotation.

While the Jays may have preferred to get one of those other starting pitchers, Scherzer keeps their commitment short. It also gives the club a very veteran rotation core. Kevin Gausman is 34, Chris Bassitt will turn 36 next month and José Berríos will be 31 in May. Those four are sure to be taking the ball with regularity, as long as they’re all healthy.

If Scherzer avoids the injury bug this year, he’ll upgrade the rotation and could perhaps indirectly upgrade the bullpen as well. Prior to this signing, Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodríguez were projected as the top options for the fourth and final spots in the rotation. Even with Scherzer in the fold, Francis will likely still get a rotation spot. After the Jays traded Yusei Kikuchi at the deadline last year, Francis got a rotation audition and ran with it. He finished out the campaign with 59 innings over nine starts with a 1.53 ERA, 26.5% strikeout rate and 3.3% walk rate. He still has one minor league option but the Jays would surely like to see if he could carry that forward.

That could push Rodríguez into a relief role, something he has done with success before. Last year was his first in the majors and he made 21 starts with decent results. He had a 4.47 ERA, 23.1% strikeout rate and 10.9% walk rate. But prior to signing with the Jays, he was a dominant closer in Japan. In 2022, he made 56 appearances for the Chunichi Dragons with a 1.15 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate. He sat out 2023 while attempting to be declared a free agent.

Going into last year, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported that Rodríguez’s contract stipulated he could only be optioned for the 2024 season. The Blue Jays did indeed option him a few times last year but it seems they won’t be able to do so from now on, so perhaps he’ll end up in the bullpen instead. He could compete for a leverage role alongside Hoffman, Yimi García, Chad Green and Erik Swanson.

That would subtract from the rotation depth a bit, but the Jays have a few more options there than they did last year. They added Jake Bloss, who already has a bit of Triple-A and MLB experience, in the aforementioned Kikuchi deal. Adam Macko is on the 40-man roster and should be in Triple-A this year after spending most of 2024 in Double-A. Alek Manoah had internal brace surgery in June and could make a late-season return. Since Scherzer is one a one-year deal and Bassitt is going into the final year of his pact, there are long-term openings for that group if any of them have a good showing in 2025.

RosterResource now sets the club’s payroll at $250MM and and their competitive balance tax number at $273MM. That puts them already well beyond last year’s Opening Day payroll, which Cot’s Baseball Contracts put at $225MM. Their CBT number was over the line in 2024 but they ducked under when their disappointing season lead to a deadline selloff, so they will go into 2025 as “first-time” payors. They are now within striking distance of the third CBT line, which will be $281MM next year. Going over that marker this year would mean their top pick in the 2026 draft would be pushed back 10 spots.

Despite running those numbers up to new heights, it doesn’t appear they are done. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Jays are still interested in Pete Alonso if he doesn’t circle back to the Mets while Keegan Matheson of MLB.com also suggests they should still have some flexibility. Maybe the Jays will add Alonso or someone else, or finally get an extension done with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. It’s been a long, frustrating winter for Jays fans but a lot has changed in the past few weeks, perhaps with more to come. Pitchers and catchers report to spring training in about two weeks.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported that Scherzer was headed to the Jays. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that it was a one-year deal. Heyman then reported the $15.5MM guarantee. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet first had the lack of deferrals. Heyman had the no-trade clause.

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