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Orioles Notes: Miley, Rotation, Lineup, Farm System

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There was a “legitimate possibility” of the Orioles exercising Wade Miley’s $12MM club option for the 2018 season before a late collapse, writes Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun, but the team now looks likely to buy that option out for $500K. Baltimore will be on the hunt for a left-handed starter this winter, but as Encina points out, the free-agent market is hardly rife with appealing options. Most of the lefties available are reclamation projects or back-of-the-rotation starters, with 35-year-old Jason Vargas and 37-year-old CC Sabathia representing the southpaws that enjoyed the most success in 2017. Encina notes that the weak crop of lefty starters may force the O’s to really evaluate whether they’d like to “balance” out their all-right-handed rotation or simply set their sights on overall quality regardless of handedness. Of course, it should be noted that even the offseason crop of right-handed starters carries more question marks than sure things, and the O’s will need to add a minimum of two starters. Suffice it to say, GM Dan Duquette will have his work cut out for him.

More out of Baltimore…

  • The O’s don’t look likely to make any significant additions to their lineup, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Catcher Welington Castillo is expected to decline his modest $7MM player option on the heels of a terrific all-around season, but Baltimore may simply hand catching duties over to top prospect Chance Sisco and Caleb Joseph. In the outfield, Adam Jones will return in center field, with Trey Mancini and young Austin Hays the favorites to work in the corners. (Mark Trumbo, then, would be the DH.) However, Kubatko does note that Hays, a 2016 third-rounder who skyrocketed through the system, won’t merely be handed a job. Inferring a bit, that’d suggest that the O’s could add a veteran outfield option to push Hays and possibly handle some corner work early in the year of Hays proves to need more development time.
  • While the Orioles’ farm has long been ranked among the bottom minor league systems in the game, they’ve made some significant progress in that regard as of late, writes MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski. Melewski spoke to MLB.com’s Jim Callis and both J.J. Cooper and John Manuel of Baseball America in recent weeks, with each suggesting that the Orioles now rate more as a middle-of-the-pack farm (in the 15 to 20 range throughout MLB). The improvements come largely based on Hays’ breakout and the presence of Sisco, both of whom will likely exhaust their rookie status early in the 2018 season. But 2017 first-rounder DL Hall, 2015 supplemental rounder Ryan Mountcastle and a once-again healthy Hunter Harvey have helped bolster the top end of the farm for the time being. There’s still a lack of pitching help in the upper levels, however — an element that is particularly troublesome given the current state of the big league roster.

NL East Notes: Braves, Hart, Weiss, Marlins, Frazier

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Major League Baseball will interview Braves president of baseball operations John Hart as part of its investigations into the club’s international dealings, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. To this point, it’s unclear whether Hart is at risk of discipline, though the very fact that he remains with the club after former GM John Coppolella has been forced to resign could be telling. The Macon Telegraph reported over the weekend that Hart was by no means an innocent bystander in the scandal, though it’s unlikely that the league will announce anything definitive in the near future. Braves CEO Terry McGuirk said this morning that MLB’s investigation is near its conclusion, per Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, but McGuirk also stressed that the league isn’t likely to reveal its findings until the World Series has concluded. McGuirk sidestepped making any telling comments about the investigation but did say: “I don’t think there will be any questions (unanswered) when we are able to discuss it.”

More on the Braves and their division…

  • Bowman also reports (on Twitter) that former Rockies manager and Braves infielder Walt Weiss is among the candidates to join the Braves’ coaching staff in 2018. Weiss could slot in as the bench coach under manager Brian Snitker, replacing Terry Pendleton in that role.
  • The Marlins are likely to retain Stan Meek to oversee the June amateur draft even after bringing Gary Denbo over from the Yankees, reports MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. While Denbo was tabbed as the team’s VP of player development and scouting, it’d be a tall task to head up the team’s player development efforts and also dedicate the time and energy needed to oversee the team’s draft process. Manager Don Mattingly and most of his coaching staff are expected to be retained, though Frisaro notes that there could be some changes depending on other teams’ managerial pursuits. Third base coach Fredi Gonzalez, for instance, has already interviewed to serve as the Tigers’ next skipper.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post makes a case for the Mets to bring Todd Frazier on board as a free agent this offseason. Frazier’s penchant for drawing walks and slugging homers are appealing to GM Sandy Alderson, Sherman writes, and he could help the team in the likely event that David Wright again misses significant time due to injury or should Dominic Smith prove to need further minor league refinement. Frazier’s clubhouse persona would also be a boost for a team that is trying to alter its clubhouse culture for the better. It’s possible that clubs in more dire need of a third baseman would offer more than the Mets, though Sherman also points out that the New Jersey native could be particularly intrigued by playing close to his home.

West Notes: Rockies, Darvish, Rangers, Padres, Angels

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Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post tackles a number of topics pertaining to the Rockies’ offseason in his latest Rockies Mailbag column. Among the more interesting items of note, Saunders opines that Carlos Gonzalez’s days in Colorado are through, noting that it’s unlikely that he’ll receive a qualifying offer. Saunders also notes that the ascension of prospect Ryan McMahon, who has been working out at second base, could also cloud DJ LeMahieu’s future with the club. LeMahieu is a free agent after the 2018 season, and McMahon has little left to prove in the minors. McMahon cut his teeth as a corner infielder, however, so it seems possible that the Rox could yet view him as an option at first base, where they’re currently a bit unsettled. Ian Desmond, of course, is an option there, though he could also be utilized in the outfield or elsewhere on the diamond (perhaps even at second base, speculatively speaking, though he has hasn’t played there since 2009 with the Nationals).

A bit more from the game’s Western divisions…

  • Dodgers righty Yu Darvish reached out to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News with an unprompted message to praise Rangers pitching coach Doug Brocail and recently fired bullpen coach Brad Holman. As Grant notes, Darvish’s recent improvements and changed mechanics have led to criticism for his coaches with the Rangers. “…There should be no criticism of Doug Brocail or Brad Holman,” said Darvish. “They are both very good coaches without a doubt. They are also great people. I’m not the kind of person who lies, so please trust me when I say this.” Darvish goes on to explain some of the alterations that he’s made since changing teams and eventually comes back to the point that there’s “no major difference in coaching or philosophy” that has led to his rebound following his trade to Los Angeles.
  • Following up on Evan Drellich’s recent report that Red Sox hitting coach Chili Davis will interview for the same position with the Padres, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune adds that the Padres have also interviewed four other candidates for the currently vacant post. Lin also notes that the Friars won’t bring infield coach Ramon Vazquez back to the coaching staff next year, though rather than making a new hire, his duties could potentially be absorbed by third base coach Glenn Hoffman. “We decided to go in a different direction to work with and lead our infielders,” manager Andy Green tells Lin.
  • The Angels will be on the hunt for multiple relievers that can pitch multiple innings this winter, writes MLB.com’s Maria Guaradado. “I believe every bullpen needs at least two guys that can pitch multiple innings,” GM Billy Eppler said this month, per Guardado. “At least two.” Yusmeiro Petit excelled for the Angels in that capacity this year, tossing 91 1/3 innings of 2.76 ERA ball with 10.0 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9. Eppler wouldn’t comment on the possibility of retaining Petit, though it stands to reason based on Eppler’s outspoken interest in players of his skill set and Petit’s success in Anaheim that the team would at least have interest.

Rockies Expected To Pursue Reunion With Jonathan Lucroy

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Jonathan Lucroy has already openly expressed interest in returning to the Rockies, and MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes today that the Rox are “expected” to pursue a reunion with the 31-year-old backstop. As Harding points out, the Rockies will return a very young pitching staff in 2018, and the team could benefit from an experienced handler of that youthful group.

Lucroy, of course, exercised his contractual right to veto a trade from the Brewers to the Indians last summer after being informed by Cleveland that he’d likely see significant time at first base. Soon after, he was flipped to the Rangers, who utilized him as their primary catcher following last year’s non-waiver deadline and for much of the first half of the 2017 season. Lucroy took Texas by storm in 2016, mashing at a .276/.345/.539 pace with 11 homers and seven doubles in just 168 trips to the plate.

Unfortunately for both Lucroy and the Rangers, he struggled through the worst half-season of his career to open the 2017 campaign, batting just .242/.297/.338 with only four homers in 306 PAs. The two-time All-Star began to cede playing time to Robinson Chirinos in Texas and was eventually traded to the Rockies for a player to be named later (young but well-regarded outfield prospect Pedro Gonzalez). With the Rox, Lucroy’s season turned around, as he slashed .310/.429/.437 with a pair of homers, six doubles and three triples in his final 175 plate appearances.

Certainly, Lucroy’s overall line of .265/.345/.371 pales in comparison to the .292/.355/.500 output he managed in 2016, but the solid finish to the season helped to salvage some free-agent value. With a solid run to close out the year and an impressive track record, Lucroy still looks like a candidate to earn a multi-year deal in free agency, as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently explored at length.

The Rockies and other interested parties will need to determine exactly what to make of Lucroy’s defensive skills. After throwing out a career-high 39 percent of opposing base thieves in 2016, Lucroy returned to his career norm in 2017, throwing out a solid-but-unspectacular 27 percent of runners. His framing metrics, meanwhile, once rated among the best in baseball. In 2017, Baseball Prospectus ranked him last among MLB receivers in that category. That doesn’t necessarily make him a poor defensive backstop — Salvador Perez routinely rates poorly but is generally regarded as a plus overall defender, for instance — but the deteriorated framing numbers certainly won’t do Lucroy any favors when negotiating with suitors this winter.

Even if the Rockies and Lucroy are ultimately unable to agree on a price point, Colorado seems likely to pursue some form of catching help this offseason. Outside of Lucroy, the Rockies received virtually no offensive production from the combination of Tony Wolters (.240/.341/.284 in 266 PAs), Tom Murphy (.042/.115/.083 in 26 PAs), Ryan Hanigan (.267/.324/.347 in 112 PAs) and Dustin Garneau (.206/.260/.353 in 74 PAs). Garneau has since been claimed off waivers by the A’s and the veteran Hanigan is a free agent, further thinning out the herd.

Rangers Reportedly Inform Mike Napoli His Option Will Be Declined

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The Rangers have informed first baseman/designated hitter Mike Napoli that his $11MM club option for the 2018 season will not be exercised, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets. He’ll instead take home a $2.5MM buyout, bringing his total earnings in his third stint with the Rangers to $8.5MM. Napoli will be a free agent once the option is formally declined.

Mike Napoli | Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Napoli, 36 on Halloween, swatted 29 homers in his return to Arlington this season but saw his batting average check in south of the Mendoza Line and his OBP land in the upper .200s. Overall, the benefit of his considerable power (.235 ISO) was counteracted by a .193/.285/.428 batting line and below-average baserunning. Both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference pegged him slightly worse than replacement level. Napoli struck out at a career-worst 33.6 percent clip and also popped up at a career-high 15.6 percent pace. A troublesome 38.1 percent of his trips to the plate resulted in a punchout or an infield fly.

Of course, Napoli is just a season removed from a very solid .239/.335/.465 batting line and 34 homers for the American League champion Indians. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating felt that he was about a run above average in nearly 800 innings at first base — the fourth time in the past five seasons that he’s ranked above average by both measures. While it’s difficult to envision Napoli securing another job as a team’s primary first baseman in free agency this offseason, his generally excellent clubhouse reputation, well-above average power and track record of mashing left-handed pitching should result in plenty of interest among contending clubs looking to utilize him in a more limited capacity.

As for the Rangers, they’ll have the option of using Joey Gallo at first base in 2018 or pursuing one of the many free-agent sluggers at first base. Eric Hosmer, Logan Morrison, Carlos Santana, Lucas Duda, Yonder Alonso and old friend Mitch Moreland are among those joining Napoli on the open market this winter. Should the Rangers bring in one of those options, Gallo could return to the corner outfield, see some time at DH and occasionally spell future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre at third base.

Alternatively, the Rangers have one of the game’s top-regarded first base prospects, Ronald Guzman, on the precipice of MLB readiness. The 22-year-old Guzman spent the 2017 season with Triple-A Round Rock, where he batted .298/.372/.434 with a dozen homers, 22 doubles and an 85-to-47 K/BB ratio in 527 plate appearances. Texas could opt to merely pursue a stopgap option to split the first base/corner outfield workload with Gallo until Guzman forces his way onto the big league roster.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Eduardo Rodriguez Undergoes Knee Surgery

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Red Sox lefty Eduardo Rodriguez has undergone a significant knee surgery, per a team announcement. Specifically, he had a patellofemoral ligament reconstruction performed on his right knee. The joint has been a source of problems for Rodriguez for some time, though he was able to turn in a mostly complete 2017 season.

Per the announcement, it is expected that Rodriguez will not be able to resume pitching for around six months. That would put him on course to be ready by mid-April of next year, though of course he’ll need some time to build up into full game condition. Accordingly, it seems clear he won’t be available for the club for some time early in the 2018 campaign.

That will leave Boston looking for options to fill out the rotation at the start of the year, though perhaps the club will feel confident enough in Rodriguez’s return that it will be happy with a shorter-term fill-in. The Sox are also hoping that Steven Wright will be back at full strength, potentially providing another option to join a rotation that’ll feature Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, and Drew Pomeranz. But there’s now rather clearly some cause for the team to pursue added depth — if not even to go ahead and add a full-time starter if a reasonable opportunity arises.

Rodriguez, 24, has steadily provided Boston with good innings over the past three seasons — when he has been available. While he has yet to take more than 24 starts in a given campaign, and hasn’t yet taken a final step to producing dominant results, Rodriguez is quite a valuable asset and still seems capable of more.

In 2017, Rodriguez threw a personal high of 137 1/3 innings, working to a solid 4.19 ERA. While he recorded 9.8 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9, he also surrendered 1.25 home runs per nine. ERA estimators all landed in range of his actual results, but perhaps there’s still another gear for a pitcher who has steadily increased his swinging-strike rate (most recently, 11.6%) and managed to produce despite a series of lower-body issues. Surprisingly, he has maintained rather pronounced reverse platoon splits in the majors; beyond getting healthy, then, perhaps the biggest challenge Rodriguez faces is to find a way to tamp down on the .270/.338/.447 batting line that southpaw swingers have put up against him.

Hanley Ramirez Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

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2:43pm: Ramirez underwent an arthrocopy and debridement. It is not expected to prevent him from being ready for a full 2018 campaign.

12:50pm: Details remain unknown, but Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston tweets that it’s believed to be a “relatively minor” surgery.

12:06pm: Red Sox first baseman/DH Hanley Ramirez underwent surgery today on his left shoulder, he announced. The details of the procedure, which comes as something of a surprise, are not yet known.

Shoulder issues plagued Ramirez throughout the season, but he had not previously given any indication that he was set to go under the knife, as Rob Bradford of WEEI.com notes on Twitter. And president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said less than a week ago that he was not aware of any players who’d need surgery. (Of course, it was later announced that lefty Robby Scott underwent a procedure that very day.)

Ramirez, who’ll turn 34 in December, is owed $22MM next year. If he takes at least 497 plate appearances and passes a physical, he’d also trigger a $22MM vesting option for the 2019 campaign, though odds are the club won’t allow that to happen unless Ramirez is playing well enough that the extra year doesn’t seem like a burden.

Boston will hope that Ramirez can bounce back from another rough season. He was productive in 2016, but otherwise has given the organization below-average offensive work since joining the organization before the ’15 campaign.

This year, Ramirez managed only a .242/.320/.429 slash with 23 home runs over 553 trips to the plate. He did not show significant erosion in plate discipline, with a typical 9.2% walk rate and a slightly elevated 21.0% strikeout rate. And perhaps there’s some hope that a reversal in fortune on batted balls will help Ramirez make up lost ground. After all, he managed only a .272 BABIP, well below his career .322 measure, despite a batted-ball mix that mostly mirrors those of recent seasons.

Ramirez was signed for his bat, and perhaps it can still come alive with a healthy shoulder. If not, he won’t hold much function for the Red Sox. Though he once ran well, Ramirez racked up -5.3 runs on the bases in 2017 by Fangraphs’ BsR measure. And at this point, the former shortstop is only an option at DH or first base. He wasn’t able to play the field much at all this year due to the shoulder problem, but perhaps there’ll be greater availability in the future.

Regardless of Ramirez’s availability, the Red Sox will likely look for more pop over the offseason to come. But HanRam’s outlook matters, too. If he’s healthy and capable of lining up at first base, perhaps the team would have greater positional flexibility in adding a bat. At this point, though, it seems likely that the Boston organization will assume it needs to add a player capable of playing first in 2018. Indeed, it’s even possible to imagine pursuit of multiple hitters, depending upon the post-surgical prognosis.

AL East Notes: Sox Payroll, Chili, Yanks’ Rotation, McKinney, O’s

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Whatever the Red Sox may prefer, the odds are that the organization will again go over the luxury tax line in 2018, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe explains. Indeed, with a hefty arbitration class set to land on top of an already robust set of guaranteed contracts, the team will enter the offseason without much hope of improving unless it’s willing to exceed the $197MM luxury tax line. Of course, the club reset its luxury tax status by staying under the 2017 mark, which reduces the penalty for going back over (but would also begin a new climb upward in the escalating tax scheme).

Here’s more from the AL East:

  • As the Red Sox continue looking into candidates for the team’s open managerial position, the team is allowing its coaches to look into their own alternatives. Well-regarded hitting coach Chili Davis is set to visit with the Padres, per Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston (Twitter links). San Diego parted ways with hitting coach Alan Zinter, leaving the club looking at alternatives. Of course, it’s still also possible that a new Boston manager would prefer to keep Davis or certain other members of the staff, but the staff is now free to make its own decisions at this stage.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post posits a scenario in which the Yankees can obtain quite a strong rotation next year without any massive new investments. Of course, doing so would depend not only upon achieving some notable strokes of good market luck but also upon the organization getting the best versions of some pitchers that have had their ups and downs. Most interestingly, Sherman says the “general sense” is that Masahiro Tanaka will not opt out of the three years and $67MM left on his deal. While that’s hardly cheap and still carries obvious risk, it seems like an appealing price tag for a pitcher of his pedigree, given his late-season rebound. Sherman’s most optimistic version of a 2018 staff also includes Shohei Otani, whose destination is anyone’s guess at this stage. All things considered, though, the Yanks’ roation situation does seem much better than might have been anticipated entering the year, due largely to the surge of Luis Severino and emergence of Jordan Montgomery.
  • Meanwhile, the Yankees are trying prospect Billy McKinney out at first base in the Arizona Fall League, Bill Mitchell writes for Baseball America, though he’ll also continue primarily to be an outfielder. As Mitchell notes, McKinney showed better than ever after finally reaching the Triple-A level midway through the 2017 season. The 23-year-old slashed .306/.336/.541 with ten home runs in his 224 plate appearances there, though he also walked just four percent of the time (well below his usual rate) and carried a .353 batting average on balls in play that likely reflects both good contact and some fortune. It’ll be interesting to see when and how McKinney is utilized at the MLB level, but he could factor into the team’s depth considerations for the season to come or potentially be dangled as a trade candidate.
  • Though the Orioles will obviously need to bring in some new players if they hope for a return to contention, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports writes that the team also must receive improvements from within if it hopes to compete. Consistent production from key players was elusive in 2017, which failed to create a base of output sufficient to maintain a winning record. Even with expectations of some bounceback performances, though, the roster will surely be in need of supplementation; MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently broke down the possibilities.

The Red Sox’ Managerial Search

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After back-to-back early postseason exits in the ALDS, the Red Sox decided to part ways with manager John Farrell.  There was already speculation before the dismissal that Farrell was on the hot seat, and the rumor mill has only picked up speed now that Boston’s search has officially begun.  President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will now have his first opportunity to personally hire a manager since joining the Red Sox in the summer of 2015.

As we’ve done with the Tigers, Mets, and Phillies, we’ll begin to house all of the managerial chatter for the Red Sox in one place and update accordingly as candidates either further their case or are removed from consideration. Here’s where Boston’s search stands, at present:

Latest Updates

  • The club is expected to conduct a second round of interviews before making any offers of employment, per Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston (via Twitter). There’s a sense inside the organization, though, that Cora is the front-runner, Drellich further writes. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Twitter link) hears that both Cora and Ausmus are “at the center of conversations,” with expectations being that it won’t take long to name a new manager.

Will Interview/Have Interviewed

  • Recently departed Tigers skipper Brad Ausmus has interviewed for the position, as Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald reported on Twitter and we covered further in another post.
  • Astros bench coach Alex Cora is expected to interview with the Sox on Sunday, Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe reports.  He’s Boston’s top candidate for the job, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (on Twitter). Cora is also expected to interview for the Tigers and Mets openings.  Though Cora is still in the midst of his first coaching stint on a big league staff, the 41-year-old has long been considered a promising managerial candidate, previously receiving interviews for openings with the Diamondbacks, Marlins, Nationals and Padres in recent years.  Cora enjoyed a 14-year career in the big leagues (including a stint with the Red Sox from 2005-08) before moving on to work as an analyst for ESPN and ESPN Deportes, and as a general manager in the Puerto Rican Baseball League.
  • The Red Sox have requested the Diamondbacks’ permission to interview bench coach Ron Gardenhire, Rosenthal tweets; he’s expected to chat with the team later this week, per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (via Twitter). The former Twins manager is one of the “final three” candidates for the job, according to Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press (via Twitter)

Preliminary Candidates (Interview Status Unknown)

  • In addition to Ausmus, Indians first base coach Sandy Alomar Jr., Dodgers bench coach Bob Geren, Giants hitting coach Hensley Meulens have all been mentioned as likely or speculative candidates by several reporters (including Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe, NBCSports.com’s Evan Drellich and the Boston Herald’s Chad Jennings).  Ausmus may be a particular name to watch, as Dombrowski hired him as Detroit’s manager after the 2013 season and (according to Peter Gammons) Ausmus delivered a very strong performance when interviewing for Boston’s last managerial opening in the 2012-13 offseason.

Not in the Mix/No Longer in Consideration

  • Current members of the Red Sox coaching staff have been told that they are free to look for jobs outside the organization.  When asked if an internal candidate could be hired, Dombrowski said “most likely not, but I’m not going to say for sure not.”  This would more or less seem to rule out names like bench coach Gary DiSarcina, hitting coach Chili Davis or third base coach Brian Butterfield, who have all been linked to previous managerial openings in the past.
  • Dombrowski also expressed a preference for candidates with past managerial or coaching experience on a Major League staff, so longtime Red Sox catcher and current Dombrowski special assistant Jason Varitek doesn’t seem to be in the running.

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