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Chris Young Preparing For 2018 Return

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Former Royals righty Chris Young has his eyes set on a return in 2018, according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter links). The 6’10” hurler turned 38 earlier in the season, prior to being cut loose by Kansas City.

It seems that some other organizations reached out with interest, but Young decided against a return during the current season. Instead, he is working with a trainer and physical therapist to prepare for camp next spring.

There’s little doubt that Young will find an audition somewhere, perhaps gaining a shot at cracking a rotation during Spring Training. But it’s unlikely he’ll command a Major League deal, and he certainly won’t approach the two-year, $11.75MM commitment he picked up to rejoin the Royals before the 2016 season.

When he last hit the market, Young was fresh off of a solid two-year run with the Mariners and Royals. Across 288 1/3 innings in 2014-15, he boasted a 3.40 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. While ERA estimators didn’t support the hype, Young seemed a sturdy enough option who may have found a way to suppress the batting average on balls in play (.238 and .209, respectively, in those two years) by generating loads of weak fly-balls.

Since landing that new contract, though, Young has been a totally different pitcher. He drastically increased his slider usage, expanding upon some prior efforts and deploying it more frequently than his fastball. With that shift, Young’s swinging-strike rate suddenly jumped to over 11 percent for the first time since 2007. However, that change also caused his overall fly-ball rate to plummet while his homer-to-fly-ball ratio and opponents’ BABIPs each soared. The bottom-line results were not promising, as Young ended up carrying a 6.52 ERA in his final 118 2/3 innings with Kansas City.

It’ll be interesting to see what kind of approach Young brings to the table in his next iteration. With about eight months between his last start and the start of camp, he ought to be rather well rested for an attempt at a 14th major league campaign.

2017-18 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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The non-waiver trade deadline is behind us, and about one-third of the regular MLB season remains.  The list of top free agents for the 2017-18 offseason is beginning to come into focus.  Below, the projected free agents are ranked based on their current earning power.  To view the full list of players eligible for free agency after the season, click here.

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1.  Yu Darvish.  The Rangers traded Darvish to the Dodgers right at the July 31st deadline, making him ineligible for a qualifying offer after the season.  The Dodgers seemingly added the former strikeout king as a playoff luxury.  Darvish began his Dodgers tenure with one of his best starts of the season, a seven-inning gem against the Mets.  Darvish’s leap to the best team in baseball grants the pitcher a major pitch framing upgrade, as explained by Chris Anders at Beyond The Box Score.  Darvish is around nine starts away from his second career 200-inning campaign, quieting health concerns related to his Tommy John surgery.  When he takes the mound next spring, he’ll be three years removed from that procedure.  The righty turns 31 soon, so we’re projecting a six-year contract this winter.

2.  J.D. Martinez.  Martinez, the best hitter in the upcoming free agent class, was traded from the Tigers to the Diamondbacks on July 18th, removing his qualifying offer eligibility.  He was hit in the hand by a pitch in his second plate appearance for Arizona, but avoided a serious injury.  Martinez has slugged 39 extra base hits in 293 plate appearances, a rate surpassed only by Mike Trout and Nolan Arenado among regular players.  However, Martinez’s right field defense continues to diminish his value.  With a six-year contract in play for the soon-to-be 30-year-old, his agent may be best suited looking toward the American League.

3.  Jake Arrieta.  With a strong seven-start run, Arrieta has shaved his ERA down to 3.83.  He’s proven durable since his Cy Young breakout in 2015, and he’s only about five months older than Darvish.  The two righties have a similar free agent profile: still quite good, but not at peak levels.  Our current projection is a five-year deal for Arrieta, who recently laughed off the idea of accepting a one-year qualifying offer.  Talking to Bob Nightengale of USA Today this week, Arrieta expressed a lack of concern about his upcoming foray into free agency.

4.  Eric Hosmer.  Hosmer hit .352/.408/.561 from May through July, boosting his free agent stock immensely.  Still, he’s been out-hit this season by impending free agent first basemen Yonder Alonso, Logan Morrison, and Lucas Duda, so the market features cheaper (but older) alternatives.  Plus, Hosmer seems a strong bet to receive a qualifying offer from the Royals, dampening his value a bit.  Every free agent class seems to have that one polarizing player, and it might be Hosmer this winter.  Is this really a $100MM+ player, or will sabermetrics win the day?

5.  Masahiro Tanaka.  Speaking of enigmas, Tanaka has a chance to experience free agency in advance of his age-29 campaign.  The catch is that he’ll have to opt out of the $67MM the Yankees are obligated to pay him over the 2018-20 seasons.  Tanaka has been very good in his last 13 starts (and downright brilliant in his last eight), but it’s difficult to ignore his season mark of 1.87 home runs allowed per nine innings.  If Tanaka thinks he can get something close to Jordan Zimmermann’s five-year, $110MM pact, opting out is the correct call.

6.  Justin Upton.  Upton, too, is facing an opt-out decision.  He’s owed four years and $88MM and will turn 30 years old in a few weeks.  Upton raked in June and July, and has a shot at a five-year deal.  Even if he’s unsure of earning more money on the open market, Upton may like the idea of leaving the rebuilding Tigers to choose his next team.  If he does opt out, Upton will be ineligible to receive a second career qualifying offer.  On July 30th, Upton told George Sipple of the Detroit Free Press, “I haven’t thought about it, honestly.  But I mean, I came here to win, so I’d have to see what the landscape is like at the end of it.  I enjoy playing here. I enjoy the guys in the clubhouse. I enjoy the atmosphere, the city. That decision is long down the road, months away.”

7.  Mike Moustakas.  Moustakas’ home run barrage has continued, leaving the Royals’ third baseman second in the American League with 32 bombs.  Barring injury, Moose seems likely to become the first Royal to hit 40 home runs.  At his current pace, he’ll wind up closer to 50.  Even with a paltry 4.3% walk rate, Moustakas seems like a candidate for a five-year deal heading into his age-29 season, despite a probable qualifying offer.

8.  Lorenzo Cain.  Cain is quietly on track for his third career season worth at least four wins above replacement.  The value isn’t quite as obvious as the position players ranked above him, but capable center fielders with above-average bats are hard to find.  We’re projecting Cain to get four years, with a shot at five.  Like his teammates on this list, Cain may get a qualifying offer.  Under the new CBA, that’s not nearly as limiting as it has been in the past.

9.  Wade Davis.  The Cubs’ laid-back closer has a career-worst walk rate, but he also has a 2.31 ERA and zero blown saves on the season.  Davis will likely have Mark Melancon’s four-year, $62MM contract in his sights, even if that particular deal doesn’t look so great currently.

10.  Greg Holland.  Holland leads MLB in saves and has slightly outpitched Davis this year.  The Rockies’ stopper has a $15MM player option he’s likely to decline in search of a multiyear deal.  Despite missing all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, Holland should be a popular free agent.

Johnny Cueto, previously a mainstay on this list, must decide after the season whether to opt out of the $84MM remaining on his contract with the Giants over the next four years.  He’s currently on the disabled list with a mild flexor strain, an injury that may be enough to convince Cueto to play it safe and keep his current deal.  Also falling off the list is Michael Pineda, who had Tommy John surgery in mid-July and will miss most of the 2018 season.

Players just missing the power rankings top ten include Logan Morrison, Zack Cozart, Lance Lynn, and Carlos Santana.  LoMo sits sixth in the AL with 28 home runs.  Cozart is tied with Upton for the free agent WAR lead with 3.6, despite a pair of DL stints.  Lynn’s strong ERA looks somewhat dubious when stacked up against pedestrian peripheral metrics.  Santana, meanwhile, has turned it on lately but is trying to distance himself from a very poor start to the year.  Ultimately, these players may be hard-pressed to find four-year deals, though there’s still time left to bolster their stock.

Injury Notes: Camargo, Brantley, Yunel, Cobb, Kela, Knapp

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Some notable injury news from around the league as Tuesday evening winds down…

  • Camargo will head to the 10-day disabled list, but it looks like Braves fans can breathe a sigh of relief, as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets that the MRI revealed no structural damage in Camargo’s right knee. Instead, he’s been diagnosed with a bone bruise. Camargo has been told he’ll miss anywhere from 10 to 14 days (Twitter link via Bowman). While not an ideal outcome, it’s a better prognosis than some may have feared when seeing the 23-year-old helped off the field and struggling to put any weight on his right leg. It’s likely that Swanson will take Camargo’s roster spot, though that has yet to be announced by the team.
  • MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian tweets that Indians left fielder Michael Brantley is headed for an MRI on a sprained ankle that he sustained in tonight’s game. An Achilles injury has “already been ruled out,” according to Bastian, and the team will have further updates on his status tomorrow morning.

Earlier Updates

  • The Angels announced on Tuesday that third baseman Yunel Escobar is headed to the disabled list with a “mild grade 1 oblique strain.” Per the club’s announcement, a general timetable for recovery from such an injury is two to three weeks. While Escobar was hardly a definitive trade candidate, the free-agent-to-be seemingly stood a chance of being moved prior to the end of the month in the event that the Angels can’t right the ship and fall out of the American League Wild Card race. The 34-year-old is hitting .274/.333/.397 with seven homers through 381 plate appearances in his second season with the Angels. Now sidelined until mid-to-late August, Escobar’s chances of being dealt look decidedly slimmer, though he could still conceivably return and demonstrate his health for interested parties.
  • Braves infielder Johan Camargo suffered a leg injury prior to tonight’s game and has been initially diagnosed with a hyperextended knee, tweets David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Camargo hopped over the chalk line while taking the field and seemed to trip in doing so, ultimately crumbling to the ground and needing to be helped off the field (video link via FOX Sports Braves, on Twitter). O’Brien notes that Camargo is set to undergo an MRI, and Dansby Swanson has already been pulled from the game with the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate in Gwinnett. The Braves figure to have further word on the injury later tonight.
  • Rays right-hander Alex Cobb has landed on the 10-day disabled list due to a case of turf toe, the team announced. Cobb tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that the injury was an issue in his last start and adds that he felt he could’ve pitched through it, but the team wanted to proactively get him healthy (Twitter link). It’ll be Blake Snell taking Cobb’s place for what looks to be a minimum-stay DL stint, per Topkin, meaning that prized prospect Brent Honeywell will have to wait a bit longer to make his big league debut with the Rays.
  • The Rangers announced that right-hander Keone Kela has been placed on the 10-day disabled list, retroactive to Aug. 5, with soreness in his right shoulder. It’s an inopportune time for an injury for Kela, who could’ve been in line to see some save opportunities (and thus pad his arbitration earning power), as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggests. As Grant notes, there’s no timetable for his return — Kela will be reevaluated when the Rangers return from their current road trip — and manager Jeff Banister said it would be “a challenge” to get Kela a look in the closer’s role later this year.
  • The Phillies will be without catcher Andrew Knapp for at least a “couple weeks” after an MRI revealed a fracture in his right hand, according to Matt Gelp and Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Knapp had been on the DL with a hand contusion and would’ve been eligible to return on Monday but will now be sidelined a fair bit longer. That will give the Phils more of a chance to look at prospect Jorge Alfaro, and manager Pete Mackanin tells Gelb and Breen that he plans to give the 24-year-old Alfaro a fair bit of playing time. “I’ll pick my spots, but I’ll play him,” said Mackanin. “I can’t catch Rupp everyday. He’ll get a good bit of playing time.”

Minor MLB Transactions: 8/8/17

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Here are Tuesday’s minor moves from around the game…

  • The Athletics announced that catcher Ryan Lavarnway has cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Nashville after being designated for assignment. The 30-year-old veteran has showed nicely in a tiny sample of 13 PAs with Oakland this season and has also posted a solid .262/.346/.385 slash through 255 PAs with the team’s Triple-A affiliate in Nashville. He’s been outrighted on multiple occasions in the past, giving him the option to reject the assignment in favor of free agency if he chooses. Lavarnway, though, has already accepted one outright from the A’s earlier this season.
  • Right-hander Ricardo Rodriguez’s contract has been formally selected by the Rangers, per a team announcement. He’ll fill the 25-man roster spot of Keone Kela, who hit the DL today due to shoulder soreness. Soon to turn 25, Rodriguez will be making his MLB debut when he first takes the mound for the Rangers, who signed him as an international free agent out of Venezuela back in 2010. Rodriguez missed the 2016 season after Tommy John surgery but has returned strong in 2017. As Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper wrote back in late June, Rodriguez blitzed through a span of 15 perfect innings out of the bullpen earlier this year, prompting Texas to move him from Class-A Advanced to Double-A. Through 47 innings this year, Rodriguez has a ridiculous 1.34 ERA with 11.7 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 (albeit against much younger competition least back in Class-A).
  • Veteran right-hander Javy Guerra is back in the Majors, as the Marlins announced that they’ve selected his contract to fill the spot of lefty Chris O’Grady, who is going on the DL due to a strained oblique. Guerra hasn’t been especially impressive in Triple-A this year (4.99 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 in 48 2/3 innings), but he’ll provide some depth for a Miami pitching staff that has been depleted by trades (David Phelps, AJ Ramos) and injuries.

Matt Shoemaker Undergoes Season-Ending Forearm Surgery

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Aug. 8: Shoemaker’s operation went as expected, and the team expects him to be ready the 2018 season, tweets Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.

Aug. 6: Angels right-hander Matt Shoemaker will undergo surgery Tuesday to release the radial nerve in his right forearm, the team announced (via Twitter).  The usual recovery timeline for such a procedure is an estimated 12-14 weeks, so Shoemaker will miss the rest of the 2017 season.

Shoemaker hit the disabled list in mid-June with a strained extensor muscle in his right forearm.  While initially considered to be less serious than most forearm-related injuries, Shoemaker suffered a setback in his rehab process and was diagnosed with posterior interosseous nerve syndrome last month.  The Angels announced on Friday that Shoemaker was considering surgery to correct the problem.

In 77 2/3 innings for the Angels this season, Shoemaker posted a 4.52 ERA, 2.46 K/BB rate and 8.0 K/9.  He suffered increases in his walk rate (3.2 BB/9, up from his career 1.9 BB/9 prior to 2017) and hard-hit ball rate (36.2%, above his 31.5% career rate), though perhaps most importantly for the injury-ravaged Angels staff, Shoemaker was still able to serve as a capable innings-eater prior to his own DL stint.  It was good seeing Shoemaker back on the mound at all, given that his 2016 season was prematurely ended after the righty suffered a skull fracture and a hematoma after being hit in the head by a Kyle Seager line drive on September 4.

Despite the pitching injuries and a general lack of offense beyond Mike Trout and Andrelton Simmons, the Halos have nevertheless stuck around in the AL wild card race.  The team is sitting three games behind the Royals for the last wild card slot, albeit with a 55-57 record.  It may still be a tall order for L.A. to leapfrog the pack within the crowded American League, though the Angels still get some late-season rotation reinforcements in the form of Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs and potentially Garrett Richards.

Padres, Jordan Lyles Agree To Minors Deal

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The Padres have agreed to a minor league pact with right-hander Jordan Lyles, per Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The 26-year-old righty was designated for assignment by the division-rival Rockies prior to the non-waiver deadline and was released last week. Lyles has been assigned to Triple-A El Paso, according to Sanders.

Lyles was the No. 38 overall pick in the 2008 draft by the Astros but found himself traded to the Rockies prior to the 2014 season as part of a package that netted the Astros outfielder Dexter Fowler. The Rox had hoped that Lyles, then one of the game’s top-regarded pitching prospects, could help to solidify the rotation for years to come.

He made good on that promise in 2014, tossing 126 2/3 innings with a 4.33 ERA, but Lyles was unable to replicate those results over the next three seasons in Colorado, struggling with injuries along the way. A broken left hand significantly shortened that 2014 campaign for Lyles, and a ligament injury in his left foot would cap his 2015 season at just 49 innings.

Lyles was healthy in both 2016 and 2017, but his results didn’t improve following a shift from the rotation to the ’pen. All told, the final three seasons of his Rockies tenure resulted in a 5.95 ERA with 5.5 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a 51 percent ground-ball rate in 154 1/3 innings. Metrics like SIERA, FIP and xFIP were a bit more optimistic, pegging him at remarkably similar (and sequential) marks of 4.69, 4.70 and 4.71, respectively.

The Padres will take a look at Lyles for the remainder of the season, and he could conceivably help the big league club as a long man or in the rotation eventually, depending on whether the Friars ultimately trade starters Clayton Richard and/or Jhoulys Chacin. At present, both of those veterans are in the rotation alongside Travis Wood, Luis Perdomo and rookie Dinelson Lamet, but both Richard and Chacin are plausible August trade candidates. Lyles could technically be controlled for another season via arbitration, depending on when he is added to the team’s roster, as he currently sits 30 days of MLB service shy of reaching six years of service time.

For now, Lyles will join the rotation for San Diego’s Triple-A affiliate: the El Paso Chihuahuas. He will, in fact, start tonight’s game for El Paso, as noted by Chihuahuas broadcaster Tim Hagerty (on Twitter).

Mariners Acquire Ernesto Frieri

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The Rangers announced that they’ve traded right-hander Ernesto Frieri to the Mariners in exchange for cash. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times first reported the swap and adds that Frieri will help to round out a depleted bullpen in Triple-A Tacoma for the time being (Twitter links). He’s not on the 40-man roster, so no corresponding move is necessary.

Frieri, 32, returned to the Majors in 2017 after sitting out the 2016 campaign entirely (outside of a stint in the Dominican Winter League). The former Angels closer drummed up some interest by pitching for his native Colombia in the 2017 World Baseball Classic. That showing helped Frieri to latch on with the Yankees on a minors pact, and he later signed with the Rangers after opting out of that pact with New York. He pitched seven innings out of the Texas ’pen, allowing four runs on six hits and six walks with five strikeouts.

While those numbers aren’t pretty, Frieri has a strong 2.63 ERA with 11.2 K/9 against 4.0 BB/9 in 27 1/3 Triple-A frames this year — including 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball with an 8-to-3 K/BB ratio since last being sent to Triple-A by Texas. He’s mostly a depth option for now, it seems, but Frieri does have a solid overall track record in the Majors, even in spite of his lack of recent results.

In 303 1/3 big league innings, he owns a 3.59 ERA with 11.5 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9. Frieri is an extreme fly-ball pitcher (career 26.4 percent ground-ball rate), though if he reaches the Majors, concerns surrounding that trait could be somewhat mitigated by the spacious dimensions of Seattle’s Safeco Field and an excellent Mariners outfield defense.

White Sox To Promote Reynaldo Lopez

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The White Sox announced today that touted pitching prospect Reynaldo Lopez will make his 2017 debut on Friday. The 23-year-old right-hander will step into the rotation spot of veteran righty Mike Pelfrey, who is being moved to the bullpen.

[Related: Updated Chicago White Sox depth chart]

Chicago acquired Lopez alongside right-handers Lucas Giolito and Dane Dunning in the offseason trade that sent center fielder Adam Eaton and his highly favorable contract to the Nationals. Of the three righties acquired in that swap, Lopez has separated himself from the pack as the most impressive of the bunch thus far.

In 121 innings with Triple-A Charlotte this season, he’s averaged 9.7 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 with a 36.3 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 3.79 ERA. However, Lopez has been utterly dominant as of late, working to a collective 2.70 ERA with a 63-to-15 K/BB ratio in his past 46 2/3 innings (12.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9). Both Baseball America and MLB.com listed Lopez as the game’s No. 59 overall prospect on their midseason rankings of baseball’s top 100 prospects.

Friday won’t mark the MLB debut for Lopez, as he first surfaced in the Majors as a 22-year-old with the Nats last season. However, in six starts, he struggled to a 4.91 ERA, issuing 22 walks and reeling off five wild pitches in his 44 innings of work. Lopez picked up 44 days of service time last year, and he’ll have the opportunity to accrue another 52 days of service in 2017 if he sticks on Chicago’s roster. That best-case scenario of 96 days of MLB service will leave him shy of Super Two projection, so Lopez presently would not be eligible for arbitration until after the 2020 season. As it stands now, the earliest he could become a free agent would be upon completion of the 2023 season.

Mariners Place David Phelps On DL; Felix Hernandez Diagnosed With Bursitis

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The Mariners have placed righty David Phelps on the 10-day DL, per a club announcement. He’s dealing with what the team is calling an elbow impingement and is expected to be sidelined for two or three weeks. Meanwhile, the club further announced that starter Felix Hernandez has been diagnosed with shoulder bursitis that will keep him out for three to four weeks.

With the DL placement of Phelps, Seattle has cleared way for the activation of just-acquired first baseman Yonder Alonso. He’ll suit up against his former team, the Athletics, in tonight’s action.

Of course, the M’s had only just acquired Phelps, too. It certainly hurts to see the organization’s top deadline acquisition head out of action so soon after he had joined the team. That said, it seems promising that he was not deemed to have a more serious elbow issue. Since coming to Seattle, Phelps has made seven appearances, allowing two earned runs over six innings while racking up 11 strikeouts and just one walk.

Hernandez had already gone on the DL a few days ago, with the team stating at the time that he was dealing with biceps tendinitis. With the new diagnosis — a repeat of an injury that drove King Felix to the DL for about two months earlier this year — it seems a lengthier absence is to be expected. That comes at an inopportune moment, as Hernandez had picked up his output over July, working to a 3.86 ERA with 36 strikeouts and 14 walks in 35 innings.

As Seattle welcomes Alonso to the fold, it sits just one game out of Wild Card position. But the club’s pitching health and depth have continued to be a problem. Hernandez returns to a disabled list that already includes Hisashi Iwakuma and Drew Smyly. Just-added southpaw Marco Gonzales took a spot start for Hernandez, but he was knocked around. Other 40-man members who have taken starts in the majors this yearinclude Andrew Moore, Sam Gaviglio, and Chase De Jong.

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