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NL Central Notes: Robert, Braun, Pirates

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The Reds are “keeping an eye on” top Cuban outfield prospect Luis Robert, reports Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Manager Dick Williams called Robert “a physical specimen” when speaking to Buchanan, adding that the Reds have scouted Robert several times in the past. The price tag on Robert, of course, will be a major consideration for the Reds, but Buchanan points out that Cincinnati has greater incentive than most clubs to break the bank on the 19-year-old. Cincinnati has already soared past its international bonus pool, meaning they’ll be prohibited from signing any player for more than $300K in either of the next two international signing periods. If Robert is declared a free agent before the current period ends on June 15, it’s logical for the Reds to make one last splash while they’re still allowed to do so. Williams, though, notes that they won’t pursue him at all costs. “I have no idea where the dollars are going to go on him,” says the GM. “It could be that it quickly gets outside of our comfort level.” The Padres, Cardinals, Astros, Braves, Athletics and Nationals are all over their allotted bonus pools as well.

More from the NL Central…

  • The Brewers and Dodgers are still in touch on a potential trade involving Ryan Braun, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com, though there’s no indication that there are any serious negotiations at the moment. However, as Morosi notes, Braun effectively faces not one, but two trade deadlines this year, as he’ll receive 10-and-5 rights on May 24. Those rights — afforded to players with 10 years of Major League service time, the five most recent with one team — allow a player full veto power over any potential trades. Braun suggests to Morosi, though, that his no-trade provisions may not be a significant factor simply because the communication between him and the Milwaukee front office is strong. “I have such a great relationship with [Brewers owner] Mark Attanasio, [general manager] David Stearns and [assistant general manager] Matt Arnold,” says Braun. “We’re all really on the same page when it comes to my situation.” The full column is rife with quotes from Braun — covering far more than just his trade candidacy — and is well worth a full read.
  • After finishing the 2016 season with a $99.9MM payroll, the Pirates opened 2017 with a payroll of about $91.5MM, per the Associated Press, and Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette spoke to GM Neal Huntington about the change. “It’s a product of how we chose to allocate the dollars,” says Huntington. “With Jung Ho Kang’s money, our thought is at some point in time we’ll be responsible for the dollars once he’s able to get here and return to the major league level.” Huntington also notes that the team made a late decision to move on from Jared Hughes, who would’ve otherwise accounted for another $2.8MM on the payroll. Instead, as Brink notes, the Buccos are on the hook for about $740K of that would-be salary. And, Brink points out, the payroll will organically increase over the course of the season, as additional players are brought up to the MLB level.

Orioles Designate Oliver Drake For Assignment

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The Orioles have designated right-hander Oliver Drake for assignment, the team announced on Thursday. The move clears a spot on the roster for 25-year-old right-hander Stefan Crichton, whose contract has been selected from Triple-A Norfolk.

Drake, 30, has appeared in parts of the the 2015-17 seasons for the Orioles, logging a collective 3.89 ERA with 10.0 K/9 against 4.6 BB/9 in 37 innings as a Major League reliever. The Naval Academy product has generated grounders at a 50.5 percent clip to this point in his big league career and averaged 90.6 mph on his fastball, though it’s perhaps worth noting that he’s averaged 91.8 mph in this season’s very brief sample (3 1/3 innings of relief across three appearances). Drake is out of minor league options, so any club that claims him off waivers would have to add him directly to its 25-man roster.

As for Crichton, the former 23rd-rounder is only 4 2/3 innings into his first taste of Triple-A action, but he’ll quickly jump to the Majors. The righty posted a 3.73 ERA in 72 1/3 innings with Double-A Bowie last year and has fairly consistently posted mid-3.00s ERA marks with solid control throughout his minor league tenure. He owns a career 3.58 earned run average with 7.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and a 57.2 percent ground-ball rate across 223 2/3 innings of work since being drafted in 2013. MLB.com rates him as the organization’s No. 30 prospect, praising his 94-96 mph fastball and the sink he can generate on the pitch.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Dodgers spent heavily to retain their top free agents while also adding several new faces to what they hope will be a World Series-contending roster.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

International Signings

Notable Losses

Los Angeles Dodgers Depth Chart; Los Angeles Dodgers Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

Despite a plethora of injuries last season, the Dodgers still won their fourth straight NL West title and advanced to the NLCS.  It’s quite possible that even a moderately-healthy Dodgers club could’ve been good enough to win it all last year, and since president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was very impressed by his team’s chemistry and work ethic, the Dodgers’ main offseason focus was to get the band back together.

Even though the Dodgers had three of their biggest contributors hitting the open market, the club was remarkably able to re-sign all three of Kenley Jansen, Rich Hill and Justin Turner.  Obviously the Dodgers’ financial muscle played a part (not just any team can afford to spend $192MM on three players), though there were no shortage of other suitors in play.

Kenley Jansen

Jansen, in particular, was one of the headline names in this winter’s loaded closer market.  He drew interest from the Yankees, Giants, Marlins and Nationals, with the former two teams dropping out of the hunt after respectively signing Aroldis Chapman and Mark Melancon.  Miami and Washington both reportedly offered Jansen more than the Dodgers’ $80MM offer, though in the end, Jansen decided to stay in a comfortable situation rather than chase a few extra million dollars.  Of course, “only” $80MM still represents the second-largest contract ever given to a relief pitcher, topped only by Chapman’s five-year, $86MM deal with the Yankees.

The Dodgers also vied with the Marlins and Yankees in the Hill sweepstakes, with the Astros, Rangers, Red Sox and Orioles additionally showing some level of interest in the veteran southpaw.  We’ll focus more on Hill in the “Deal Of Note” section.

Turner, on the other hand, seemed like he always had his eye on remaining in Dodger blue, and the star third baseman indeed re-signed on a four-year, $64MM deal.  Turner has blossomed into one of the game’s best all-around third basemen over his three seasons in L.A., posting 5.6 fWAR in 2016 on the strength of 27 homers and a .275/.339/.493 slash line over 622 plate appearances, plus an outstanding +17.2 UZR/150 and seven Defensive Runs Saved at the hot corner.  There is some risk involved in the signing (Turner is entering his age-32 season and 2016 was his first season with more than 126 games played), though on the whole, the deal looks solid, particularly since the Dodgers had a need for right-handed bats.

That search for right-handed hitting extended to the Dodgers’ efforts in the second base trade market, as the team was linked to such notable names as the Tigers’ Ian Kinsler and the Twins’ Brian Dozier.  It seemed like a deal was close with the Twins since the Dodgers were willing to move Jose De Leon to Minnesota, though talks stalled over what other prospect(s) would be involved in the trade.

The Twins wanted at least one of Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler or Brock Stewart (all top-eight prospects in the Los Angeles farm system), so facing that heavy price tag, the Dodgers pivoted to another target, acquiring Logan Forsythe from the Rays for De Leon.  Forsythe emerged as a capable everyday second baseman over his last two seasons in Tampa Bay, providing solid defense and hitting .273/.347/.444 with 37 homers over 1182 PA.  He is also signed to an affordable contract, set to earn $5.75MM in 2017 and available on an $8.5MM club option in 2018.

Even with second now spoken for, the Dodgers still brought Chase Utley back on a one-year, $2MM deal.  Utley is regarded as an important clubhouse leader and he provides infield depth as a backup at second, third and first base.  Franklin Gutierrez was another veteran depth signing who can play all three outfield positions, though his primary role will be as part of a left field platoon with Andrew Toles.  Between Utley in the infield and Gutierrez in the outfield, the two will essentially replace the contributions of utilityman Howie Kendrick, who was dealt to the Phillies.

Though L.A. has several good bullpen options already on hand, the team added Sergio Romo as a veteran arm to serve as Jansen’s setup man.  Romo was limited to just 40 games and 30 2/3 innings last season due to a flexor strain in his left elbow, though he still posted a 2.64 ERA, 4.71 K/BB rate and 9.7 K/9 for the Giants.  Romo will help fill the void left by departed free agents Joe Blanton and J.P. Howell.

Questions Remaining

While it seemed like the Dodgers had their three internal free agents atop their offseason wish list, their resources allowed them to explore a number of other potential options.  There’s an alternate reality out there where Los Angeles upgrades its rotation by trading for Jose Quintana or Jake Odorizzi instead of re-signing Hill, trades for White Sox third baseman Todd Frazier instead of re-signing Turner and addresses closer by signing Chapman over Jansen.

The argument can definitely be made that the Dodgers chose wisely by simply re-signing quality players they were comfortable and familiar with on and off the field.  Still, big-ticket free agent signings have been a relatively small part of Friedman and GM Farhan Zaidi’s transactional arsenal since taking over the team’s baseball operations department.  Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir and Kendrick were the only free agents signed to multi-year deals in Friedman/Zaidi’s two previous offseasons running the Dodgers, and none of those contracts have provided much return to date.

Now, the Dodgers have handed two expensive deals to two players (Hill and Turner) in their 30’s and also committed $86MM to a relief pitcher, albeit an elite one in Jansen.  Pursuing a trade-heavy offseason strategy would’ve cost the Dodgers more in prospects, though that could’ve been considered an acceptable loss since the team is clearly in win-now mode.  On the flip side, a team with the Dodgers’ resources is less “win now” than “win always,” so making a one-year push isn’t a necessity — a team with a shorter contention window might have added a second or even a third top prospect to land Dozier, for instance.

The added salary commitments will further complicate the Dodgers’ attempts to eventually get under the luxury tax limit.  While the tax threshold will gradually rise over the five years of the new collective bargaining agreement, harsher penalties are also in place for teams that exceed that limit.  For instance, the luxury tax threshold will go up to $197MM in 2018, but L.A. already has over $171.3MM committed to just 10 players for that season.  Real salary relief might not come until after 2018 when several big salaries (i.e. Adrian Gonzalez, McCarthy, Kazmir) come off the books, though the Dodgers also face the possibility of Clayton Kershaw opting out of his contract that offseason.

The crowded L.A. outfield saw Kendrick and Josh Reddick depart and Gutierrez and depth option Brett Eibner (in a trade with the A’s) added to the mix.  The Dodgers’ MLB roster consists of Yasiel Puig, Joc Pederson, Toles, Scott Van Slyke, Trayce Thompson and utilityman Enrique Hernandez available for outfield duty, not to mention Gutierrez and longtime Dodger Andre Ethier on the DL.  That’s a lengthy list of names that will need to be accounted for when everyone is healthy, and while several of those players could be simply optioned to Triple-A, players like Thompson or Van Slyke could also be possible trade chips.

There was much speculation last fall that the Brewers and Dodgers could revisit talks about a Ryan Braun trade, with Puig and McCarthy mentioned as possible candidates to go to Milwaukee in the deal.  Not much seemed to happen on the Braun trade front, however, and while Braun would have carried a big price tag for the Dodgers, he also would’ve brought some stability to the fluid outfield situation.  Puig is off to an excellent start in the young 2017 season, though given how inconsistently he performed in 2015-16, the Dodgers can’t yet know if they’ll get another struggling season, a return to Puig’s burgeoning superstar form of 2013-14 or anything in between.  It would aid the Dodgers immensely if Puig is able to play at least well enough to hold down a regular everyday job and Pederson can be at least somewhat productive against left-handed pitching.

Like the outfield, the L.A. rotation also has a lot of options and the potential for greatness, though little in the way of consistency either performance-wise or health-wise.  Even the phenomenal Kershaw can’t be considered a 100 percent lock given that he missed two months last season with a herniated disk.  Kershaw, Kenta Maeda and Hill (when healthy) will be the rotation’s top three, with Kazmir, McCarthy, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Alex Wood and Julio Urias in the mix for the final two spots.  If injuries continue to be an issue, it couldn’t be surprise if the Dodgers make another deadline move for pitching, be it a mid-rotation piece or a big name like Quintana or the Rays’ Chris Archer or Jake Odorizzi.

Deal Of Note

Over his last 144 1/3 MLB innings, Hill has an even 2.00 ERA to go along with a 10.6 K/9, 4.15 K/BB rate and 46.1% ground ball rate.  These are exceptional numbers for any pitcher, especially for one that just turned 37 last month and who looked all the world like a fringe major leaguer when he began this epic run in September 2015.

Rich Hill

Committing $48MM to a pitcher with those numbers is justifiable, and arguably even a bargain.  The risk for the Dodgers, of course, is Hill’s age, the consideration that his career revival will eventually come back to earth, and his health.  Hill has a checkered injury history that includes Tommy John surgery, and his 2016 was shortened by a month-long DL stint with a groin strain as well as nagging blister problems.  That latter issue has again emerged early in 2017, as Hill is currently on the 10-day DL with a blister on the middle finger of his throwing hand.

As noted earlier, the Dodgers don’t have much stability in their starting rotation, and yet the team made a big investment in a pitcher who can’t help but be considered a question mark, regardless of how well Hill has performed when he has been able to take the mound.  Los Angeles was reportedly shopping McCarthy and Kazmir this winter, an ominous reminder of how Friedman/Zaidi’s other big free agent pitching signings have quickly gone south.  The Dodgers would probably be more than satisfied if Hill was suddenly only two-thirds as good as his recent effectiveness but was able to take the mound every fifth day.

Overview

For all of the questions that the Dodgers face about injuries or declining veterans, it should be noted that quite a bit went right for the club last year.  Corey Seager emerged as a superstar on the rise, Maeda looked very impressive in his first season in North American baseball, Toles came out of nowhere to become a regular contributor, and the team did fall just two games short of the National League pennant.  You can’t blame Friedman and company for essentially wanting to replicate the 2016 roster and see if they can run it back, with some new upgrades like Forsythe, Romo and Gutierrez.

How would you evaluate the Dodgers’ winter moves?  (Link for app users.)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

James Kaprielian To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Prized Yankees prospect James Kaprielian is slated to undergo Tommy John surgery next week, per a club announcement. While the news is obviously a disappointment, it was perhaps the anticipated outcome at this stage.

Kaprielian, who was taken 16th overall in the 2015 draft, had already missed time with elbow issues early in his career. The former UCLA righty was limited to just 56 frames (including a fall league placement) in his first two seasons as a pro. When he experienced elbow discomfort again this spring, it was determined that the surgery was required.

There had been at least some hope that Kaprielian could contribute to the Yanks as soon as this year. Despite his limited action over the past two seasons, he impressed when he was on the hill, compiling an overall 2.89 ERA with 10.0 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 since joining the organization.

Instead, Kaprielian will require a layoff that will likely extend into the beginning of the 2018 season. Though the organization will hope that he’ll progress as a pitcher even as he recovers, that extended delay is hardly a positive development. And while Kaprielian won’t be earning MLB service time during his layoff, his future now faces added uncertainty — though it still retains plenty of promise.

Entering the 2017 season, Kaprielian drew strong ratings from most major prospect analysts. Baseball America ranked him fifth in the Yankees organization, while MLB.com placed him just one spot lower on its list. Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, who rated Kaprielian fourth among the club’s prospects, wrote that the youngster has an arsenal “approaching [that of] a top-of-the-rotation arm,” while noting that his ability to maintain his velocity and stay healthy remained major points in question.

Quick Hits: Gardenhire, Afterman, Loria, Arenado

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Diamondbacks bench coach Ron Gardenhire is slated to undergo surgery for prostate cancer next Tuesday, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes in an update on the former Twins skipper. As Nightengale writes, the bad news came at a particularly disappointing time for Gardenhire, given that he was returning from a layoff after leaving Minnesota. But he’s tackling the condition with typical form, as Nightengale writes. “Cancer is a big word, you know, but it’s been pretty special having so many people reach out,” says Gardenhire, who adds that he “can’t wait to sit in that dugout again.”

Here’s more from around the game:

  • ESPN.com’s Andrew Marchand penned an interesting profile of Yankees assistant GM Jean Afterman, who is currently the only woman holding that position leaguewide. Afterman has a fascinating and varied background; she ultimately became a lawyer and later helped pioneer the movement of players from Japan to the majors. While Yankees GM credits her as a “pit bull” who could easily hold a position as his peer, she says she prefers to remain with the organization as an adviser. It’s a fun look at an interesting person that also tackles the ongoing question of whether the game can do more to grow the involvement of women in upper management.
  • In another profile, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com takes a look at controversial Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria as he reportedly prepares to sell his franchise. Crasnick examines some of the differing angles on Loria, focusing on his relationship with the tragically departed Jose Fernandez. Loria also defends his place in the game and discusses the possibility of taking an ambassadorship to France in a sit-down with Crasnick, which you’ll want to read for yourself.
  • Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado chatted with Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, who calls the star performer “one of the game’s most inquisitive superstars — if not the most inquisitive.” As he looks to build upon his standing as one of the game’s better all-around players, Arenado is described as constantly seeking to improve by interview subjects such as agent Joel Wolfe, former skipper Walt Weiss, and a variety of veteran players. Soon to turn 26, Arenado has compiled back-to-back forty-plus home run seasons, and also significantly boosted his walk rate last year while continuing to provide high-quality defensive work at third. Of course, his park-adjusted batting production suggests he has been more a very good than a great hitter to this point in his career, though he has improved at the plate in every season in the majors and could perhaps continue to do so if he can expand upon that growth in the plate-discipline department.

NL Central Notes: Schwarber, Thames, Cards’ Pen, Adams

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Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago tells the interesting tale of how Kyle Schwarber put himself on the Cubs’ radar — with a big assist from longtime scout Stan Zielinski, who unfortunately passed away recently. Zielinski drew quite a picture of Schwarber upon seeing him in person, invoking none other than Babe Ruth and calling Schwarber “the best college bat I’ve seen in a long time” — adding, “and remember I’m so old I’ve seen a lot of them.” It’s an interesting read that’s well worth your time.

Here’s more from the NL Central:

  • This profile of new Brewers slugger Eric Thames, from Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca, also merits a look this morning. Interestingly, as Nicholson-Smith writes and Thames explains, the 30-year-old has flattened his swing out since he last appeared in the majors. While there’s an increasing trend toward doing just the opposite to drive power enhancements, Thames engineered his return to the bigs by posting massive home run tallies in Korea.
  • The Cardinals aren’t denying that there’s a bit of worry with the early performance of their relief corps, as ESPN.com’s Mark Saxon reports. While the unit got the job done last night, Trevor Rosenthal — who was handed the ball in the eighth — was touched for three hits and a run while recording just one out. Closer Seung-hwan Oh and major free-agent signee Brett Cecil have each struggled through the season’s first nine games, among others. Short sample alarms are by now obviously blaring, and there’s not a whole that that could be done at this stage anyway. But that doesn’t mean the front office isn’t keeping an eye on the situation. “I’m concerned, but I also realize it is still too early to panic,” said GM John Mozeliak.
  • That’s not to say that the Cardinals aren’t open to trying things in hopes of jolting the club out of its uninspiring start. After all, lumbering first baseman Matt Adams has now seen 27 1/3 innings of action in left field — a decision that boosts the lineup but also comes with some tradeoffs. Matheny acknowledges as much, as Saxon further reports. “We’re going to get what we get out of a guy who hasn’t played a lot there,” Matheny said in discussing Adams’s transition to the grass. “We’ve seen opportunities to make an impact offensively and, right now, we need both.”

AL Central Notes: Kipnis, Martinez, Gose, Rodon

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Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis was hit by a pitch on his left hand during a rehab outing tonight, as Jordan Bastian of MLB.com tweets. He’s expected to sit out at least one contest, though at this point there’s no indication that he has suffered a significant injury. Cleveland is no doubt looking forward to the return of Kipnis, who is working back from a shoulder injury. As Bastian writes, the club’s bats have stalled in the early going.

More from the American League Central…

  • Tigers right fielder J.D. Martinez has begun taking batting practice and could be activated from the disabled list by early May, writes Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. Manager Brad Ausmus tells Fenech that Martinez is “slightly ahead of schedule,” though he declined to get into any specifics about the length or location of a potential rehab assignment for the slugger. Martinez has been on the shelf since Opening Day due to a Lisfranc injusry in his left foot, and in his absence, the Tigers have utilized Tyler Collins and Mikie Mahtook in right field while young JaCoby Jones in center field.
  • Former outfielder Anthony Gose, who is converting to the mound, has begun facing hitters in extended Spring Training, tweets Evan Woodbery of MLive.com. Tigers manager Brad Ausmus got positive reports on Gose’s curveball in particular. At the time he was drafted, Gose was considered a two-way prospect, as Baseball America noted in its draft report on him that he featured a “blistering fastball” that peaked at 97 mph. While many liked him better as a pitcher, Gose had some shoulder troubles prior to the draft that prompted the move to the outfield.
  • White Sox lefty Carlos Rodon is progressing in his recovery from biceps bursitis, as Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune writes. Though Rodon has yet to take the mound while he works back to strength, manager Rick Renteria says he’s “moving along positively” and is continuing to work through a throwing program. While the Sox would no doubt love to see the young southpaw working to take the next steps in his development at the major league level, the rebuilding club is obviously taking a conservative course in bringing him back to full speed.

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

Brandon Phillips became the latest longtime Reds veteran to be traded as the franchise continued its rebuilding process.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart; Cincinnati Reds Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

With Jose Peraza and Dilson Herrera knocking on the door as Cincinnati’s second baseman and shortstop of the future, the Reds needed to clear some room up the middle.  Phillips had already used his no-trade protection to reject two proposed deals to the Nationals and D-backs last offseason, and given the lack of a robust market for the 35-year-old, it seemed like the Reds were willing to simply move Phillips as soon as any sort of trade could be arranged.  It may or may not have taken multiple attempts to deal Phillips to his home state of Georgia, though in the end, the Reds eventually traded Phillips to the Braves for two unheralded young arms (Andrew McKirahan and Carlos Portuondo) and only $1MM in salary relief from the $14MM owed to Phillips in 2017.

Former Brewer Scooter Gennett was claimed on waivers at the end of Spring Training, giving the Reds some veteran depth in the middle infield behind new starting second baseman Peraza.  Between Gennett, Arismendy Alcantara, and Patrick Kivlehan (the latter two originally acquired in late-season waiver claims), the Reds have a versatile trio of bench players who can all fill in at multiple positions.  Veterans Desmond Jennings and Ryan Raburn were also signed to minor league deals this winter, but were released at the end of Spring Training.

Scott Feldman | Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports

The backups’ positional flexibility has allowed the Reds to begin the season with just a four-man bench, giving the team more room to add extra bullpen arms in a very fluid pitching situation.  With Anthony DeSclafani and Homer Bailey sidelined, Cincinnati gave rotation spots to rookies Amir Garrett and Rookie Davis, with former Red Bronson Arroyo currently occupying the fifth spot in the rotation.  Arroyo rejoined the team on a minor league deal over the winter and is attempting a comeback after missing over two and a half seasons due to Tommy John surgery and rotator cuff injuries.  It’s unknown what Arroyo can bring to the table after such a long absence, though the 40-year-old promises to be a good clubhouse influence for the young Reds. If he can recapture any of his old soft contact-inducing, innings-eating form, he’ll be a boost to an inexperienced rotation.

The Reds’ higher-priced rotation addition was Opening Day starter Scott Feldman, who signed for $2.3MM in guaranteed money with almost as much available in potential bonuses as both a starter and a reliever.  Given the aforementioned injury problems in the rotation, Feldman served as the team’s Opening Day starter, and his rotation role could potentially make him a trade chip at the deadline.  Feldman can give Cincinnati some rotation stability as somewhat of a younger version of Arroyo — a pitch-to-contact veteran who doesn’t miss many bats. The 34-year-old has shown some solid durability as a starting pitcher in the past, when teams haven’t moved him into a bullpen role.  He steps into Dan Straily’s spot in the rotation, as the Reds dealt Straily to the Marlins for a package of three prospects. (More on that later.).

Drew Storen was the Reds’ other MLB signing this winter, as the former Nationals closer looks to rebound after a rough 2016 season (though he already showed some signs of a turn-around after a midseason trade to the Mariners).  He’ll join Michael Lorenzen as the setup men behind stopper Raisel Iglesias, giving the Reds an intriguing back-of-the-bullpen combination, though “back” may not exactly be accurate, as the Reds have already shown some creativity in their deployment of relievers.

Finally, the Reds completed a long-discussed front office move this winter, promoting GM Dick Williams to president of baseball operations.  Former president Walt Jocketty will remain in the organization as an advisor to team CEO Bob Castellini.

Questions Remaining

As you can tell, it was a pretty quiet winter for the Reds on the transactions front, perhaps indicative of this stage in their rebuilding process.  While there’s no doubt Cincinnati is committed to building for the future, there’s some uncertainty over whether several of the interesting young position players around the diamond (such as Billy Hamilton or Eugenio Suarez) are true building blocks or maybe just potential trade chips to further add young talent to the system.  It hasn’t helped that between the Phillips deal and last winter’s critically-panned trades of Aroldis Chapman (under difficult circumstances) and Todd Frazier, Cincinnati hasn’t gotten much in return for three of its key veterans.  Three players from the Chapman and Frazier trades (Peraza, Davis, and Scott Schebler) look to be regulars for the 2017 Reds, though of that group, it’s arguable that only Peraza projects as a true long-term piece. We’ll have to wait and see how those players pan out, though, and they’ll get their first full tests in 2017.

More trades seem likely, as it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Feldman or Storen flipped prior to the non-waiver deadline.  Hamilton was only available at a very high price tag this winter for teams (such as the Rangers) who inquired about a trade, though the Reds did seem willing to move him and could still do so if a club meets that price.  DeSclafani also drew some trade speculation during the offseason, but since a sprained UCL will sideline until until at least June, the Reds will have to wait to see what they really have in the promising righty.  It’s also fair to note that injuries have hampered the Reds’ efforts both on the field and in their rebuild — besides DeSclafani, either Bailey or Devin Mesoraco could’ve been shopped or dealt by now had either player been healthy over the last few seasons.

It was perhaps a little surprising that Zack Cozart was still in a Reds uniform on Opening Day, given that the veteran shortstop was almost traded to Seattle last summer and the Reds were keen to create room for younger infield pieces.  The Mariners’ acquisition of Jean Segura, however, took Cozart’s top trade suitor off the board, and the Padres were the only other team linked to Cozart on the rumor mill.  You’d think that some team would eventually have interest in a superb defender like Cozart, though with so many contenders already set at the shortstop position, the Reds may have to wait for an injury or another unforeseen situation to develop before the trade deadline to finally move Cozart, who is a free agent at season’s end.

No discussion of Reds trade candidates is complete with mentioning Joey Votto, even if both the team and the star first baseman insist that they are happy to continue their relationship.  Of the two, Votto’s statement carries a bit more weight given his no-trade rights.  Despite Votto’s continued superb play, his age (33) and salary (owed just under $179MM through the 2023 season) already limit his potential market.  Even if he did eventually consent to a trade, any decline will greatly hamper the Reds’ ability to get either a good prospect return or a good chunk of Votto’s salary off their books.

Nobody expected a rebuilding team to break the bank on pitching upgrades, especially with so many young hurlers in the system.  Still, given how dreadful the Reds’ bullpen was in 2016, the club certainly could’ve justified adding more newcomers than just Storen.  Cincinnati is putting a lot of faith in the Iglesias/Lorenzen combo, not to mention in improvement from Tony Cingrani and Blake Wood and rookies Wandy Peralta and Barrett Astin.  The Reds did discuss Jeremy Jeffress with the Rangers as part of trade talks for Hamilton, DeSclafani, and Straily, so once the deadline rolls around, Cincinnati could well target more controllable relief pitching.

Deal Of Note

Since I noted the Reds’ somewhat questionable returns on some of their trades of veteran players, it’s only fair to mention how much value they received from Straily’s one-year tenure with the team.  Cincinnati claimed Straily off waivers from the Padres just prior to Opening Day 2016, and the right-hander ended up being the Reds’ most reliable starter, posting a 3.76 ERA, 7.62 K/9 and 2.22 K/BB rate over 191 1/3 innings.

Dan Straily

On paper, a pitcher coming off that sort of a season who is also under club control through 2020 would project as a long-term piece for a rebuilding team.  Instead, however, the Reds dealt Straily to Miami for right-handers Luis Castillo and Austin Brice, plus 20-year-old outfield prospect Isaiah White.  Brice will begin the year on the DL with an elbow injury but could factor into the Major League bullpen mix later on, White is an interesting speedster and Castillo is a very promising rotation option.  Ranked as the second-best prospect in Miami’s system by Baseball America last December, Castillo owns a high-90s fastball and a potentially above-average slider (as per BA’s scouting reports).  ESPN’s Keith Law thinks enough of Castillo to rank him as the 94th-best prospect in all of baseball.

Will the Reds miss Straily, especially with their rotation again thinned by injuries?  It’s possible, though there is evidence that Cincinnati may have sold Straily at the peak of his value.  The righty’s ERA indicators (4.88 FIP, 5.02 xFIP, 4.67 SIERA) weren’t impressive last season, as Straily benefited from a .239 BABIP and 81.2% strand rate.  A fly-ball pitcher throughout his career, Straily allowed a league-high 31 homers in 2016, and that was despite posting some very good numbers at the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.

Straily was only a borderline MLB pitcher in 2014-15, managing only a 6.42 ERA over 68 2/3 IP for the Astros, Cubs and Athletics.  Even if Straily has turned a corner and 2016 represents his new normal rate of production, the Reds still did a good job of selling high on a pitcher that cost them nothing to obtain from San Diego.

Overview

The Reds almost certainly won’t be contenders in 2017, though they have started the season on an impressive 7-and-2 run. The highlight of their first half may end up being picking second overall in the June amateur draft.  It will be another season of development in Cincinnati as the team continues to plot its course through the rebuilding wilderness, though strong showings from Garrett, Davis and/or Cody Reed would go a long way towards solidifying the future rotation.  The Reds will be a team to watch in the weeks leading up to the July trade deadline.  Cozart, Feldman, Storen, Suarez, and Hamilton stand out as potential names on the move, there could be a Straily-esque under-the-radar player that also emerges as a trade chip, and business would pick up considerably if Votto consented to a deal.

What’s your take on the Reds’ winter?  (Link for app users.)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Injury Notes: Kaprielian, Ross, Beltre, Bush, Gutierrez, Bailey, M’s

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Yankees pitching prospect James Kaprielian is weighing whether or not to undergo surgery, GM Brian Cashman told reporters including Erik Boland of Newsday (Twitter links). Cashman didn’t make clear just what surgical options might be on the table for the 23-year-old, who is said to have experienced elbow pain recently, but all the hints suggest it could be a significant injury. “The rehab process has not been successful,” said Cashman, “so he’s facing some decisions.” Kaprielian also dealt with elbow problems last year, limiting his ability to gain minor-league experience, but there were still suggestions that the 2015 first-rounder might factor at the MLB level this year.

Here’s more on some health situations from around the game:

  • The Rangers have provided some updates on several players, all via T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com (links to Twitter). Righty Tyson Ross will need to hold off on his rehab for a bit after experiencing upper back spasms. While it doesn’t appear as if there’s any broader concern, it will slow his timeline by at least a week. Meanwhile, Adrian Beltre’s new calf injury will likely cost him enough time to be measured in weeks rather than days, per assistant GM Mike Daly. Understandably, the club is charting a cautious course with the veteran, who had been nearing his return from calf issues before suffering another strain in a different area of the muscle. Finally, the team will wait to see how setup man Matt Bush responds to an injection before determining whether he’ll need a DL stint for his sore shoulder.
  • Dodgers outfielder Franklin Gutierrez is headed to the 10-day DL with a hamstring strain, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter links). He’ll be replaced for the time being by Trayce Thompson, but skipper Dave Roberts says it’s expected to be only a one-to-three-week layoff.
  • The Angels have placed righty Andrew Bailey on the 10-day DL to rest his inflamed shoulder, per a club announcement. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by fellow righty Daniel Wright. It’s not yet clear just how long Bailey will be down. For Wright, this’ll be his third call-up to the majors; he saw action last year with both the Reds and Angels, working both as a stater and from the pen.
  • Mariners righty Tony Zych could be nearing a return, as Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports, with Steve Cishek not farm behind him. It remains to be seen whether Zych will head to the MLB roster, as he could also be optioned. Manager Scott Servais praised the righty’s form after a sim game, saying he looked “very sharp.”

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