Red Sox Notes: Offseason, Brentz, 40-Man
Some notes from Fenway Park…
- With the Red Sox looking for power bats this winter, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald looks at how making a big signing (i.e. J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer) or trade (for Giancarlo Stanton) would impact the club’s payroll and the rest of its offseason moves. For instance, signing Martinez would give the Sox less future financial space to make other high-profile moves this winter, assuming Boston wanted to keep some money free to ink its current young stars to extensions.
- A much more conservative offseason forecast is provided by Boston.com’s Paul Swydan, who argues that the Red Sox should go after less-expensive options (i.e. Jay Bruce, Hyun Soo Kim, Zach Duke) to address their first base, outfield, and bullpen needs, while still saving money for extensions and to make a big signing from the star-laden 2018-19 free agent class.
- Bryce Brentz looks like the team’s top choice for the fourth outfielder role next year, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told MLB.com’s Ian Browne and other reporters earlier this week. With Chris Young hitting free agency, the Red Sox have a need for a backup outfielder, particularly a right-handed hitter who can spell Jackie Bradley Jr. and Andrew Benintendi against southpaws. Brentz has only appeared in 34 MLB games since the Sox selected him 36th overall in the 2010 draft, though he is coming off a very strong 2017 season that saw him hit .271/.334/.529 with 31 homers over 494 PA for Triple-A Pawtucket.
- Minor league pitchers Jalen Beeks, Chandler Shepherd, and Jake Cosart seem like the top candidates to fill the three open spots on the 40-man roster, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe writes. Teams have until 7pm CT to set their rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft on December 14.
Gammons’ Latest: Cobb, Machado, Maitan, Braves, Swihart
According to “industry consensus,” Alex Cobb‘s free agent market will come down to a battle between the Cubs and Yankees, Peter Gammons writes in his newest entry at GammonsDaily.com. Chicago’s interest in Cobb (which is apparently mutual) is already known, and such other teams as the Phillies, Orioles, and Blue Jays have also been linked to Cobb on the rumor mill, though New York would seem like something of a surprise candidate. Since Cobb is expected to land a pricey multi-year deal, it would be difficult for the Yankees to sign the right-hander and stay under the luxury tax threshold, unless the team was able to unload another big contract or two off its books. Starting pitching also doesn’t appear to be a critical need for the Yankees, as while a variety of young arms are battling for the fifth starter’s role, signing a more inexpensive veteran (or bringing back C.C. Sabathia) would seem like a likelier move than making a big splash to sign Cobb.
Here’s more from Gammons…
- Orioles officials are debating whether or not to move Manny Machado to shortstop next season. While Machado is a free agent next winter, incumbent shortstop Tim Beckham may also not be the long-term answer at the position, as his scorching-hot first month with the O’s doesn’t erase other concerns about his overall offensive and defensive capability. Given that Machado himself would reportedly prefer to move from third base to his original minor league position, it doesn’t seem like the O’s would meet with any resistance from the star infielder if they decided on the move. Machado has been one of baseball’s best defensive third basemen but he has also displayed an above-average glove (5.4 UZR/150, +2 Defensive Runs Saved) over 433 career innings at short. A position shift would greatly alter Baltimore’s offseason plans and put them in line to seek out third base help, perhaps even a top free agent like Mike Moustakas or Todd Frazier. The O’s could also aim lower and simply look for a platoon partner to join Beckham at the hot corner.
- The Braves “expect to lose” prized prospect Kevin Maitan as part of MLB’s investigation into the team’s alleged violations of international and domestic amateur signing rules, Gammons hear from a source within the Atlanta organization. Interestingly, the feeling within the new Braves front office (now led by new GM Alex Anthopoulos) is that “Maitan was [not] worth the money or the hype,” so losing him wouldn’t be a major setback for the farm system. Maitan signed for a $4.25MM bonus at the opening of the 2016-17 July 2 international signing period, and he hit .241/.290/.340 in his first pro season, receiving 176 PA in rookie ball. Despite those unimpressive numbers, Maitan came into the season as a consensus top-100 prospect in baseball and is still just 17 years old — even if the new Braves decision-makers weren’t keen on Maitan, they’d still be losing a significant trade chip if the league did indeed void his contract with the team.
- Some Red Sox officials want to try Blake Swihart out at second base, as the team will be looking for help at the keystone with Dustin Pedroia sidelined for at least the first two months of the season. Boston has already been exploring the idea of using Swihart in a superutility role, as he is regarded as a good enough athlete to handle first base, third base, left field, and his former position of catcher. Perhaps most importantly for Swihart’s future, the former top prospect tells Gammons that he has “felt the best I’ve felt in two years” and seems fully recovered from the ankle injuries that stalled his development.
AL West Notes: Cruz, Mariners, Astros, Gattis, A’s
Some items from around the AL West…
- The Mariners apparently aren’t planning to make Nelson Cruz available in trade talks, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. The newly-acquired Ryon Healy will be used at first base, leaving Cruz to his usual role as Seattle’s designated hitter. A 37-year-old, DH-only player entering the final year of his contract would seem like a logical trade chip on paper, though Cruz has been such a valuable hitter for the M’s that moving him would be a questionable move for a team planning to contend in 2018. Cruz has done nothing but rake since coming to Seattle three seasons ago, batting .292/.368/.557 with 126 homers over 1967 plate appearances.
- Healy was acquired for Emilio Pagan, and between losing Pagan and fellow righty Thyago Vieria (in another deal with the White Sox), Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto told MLB.com’s Greg Johns and other reporters that he feels his team was able to spare the arms. “Right-handed bullpen is a place we felt we had a little depth, and we turned some of that depth into a first baseman, which was not an area we were quite as flush,” Dipoto said. While the M’s were hit hard by injuries last year, they do have a number of rotation and bullpen options on hand, including several youngsters rising through the farm system. (For a full overview of the Mariners’ pitching options, check out their roster page at Roster Resource.)
- Evan Gattis logged more time at catcher than designated hitter in 2017, but it’s very likely to be the other way around next season, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle reports. The Astros plan to use Gattis almost exclusively at DH (replacing the departed Carlos Beltran) and find a more traditional No. 2 catcher to place behind Brian McCann. Houston could go outside the organization to find McCann’s next backup, but the team may like in-house option Max Stassi enough to give him the role, Kaplan relays. Both Stassi and fellow reserve catcher Juan Centeno will be out of options next season, and Kaplan suggests that the Astros will try to keep the latter in the organization by sending him through outright waivers in the coming months.
- The Athletics have a full 40-man roster, which MLB.com’s Jane Lee notes could lead to some shuffling before Monday evening’s deadline to set rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft. Lee lists five prospects (outfielder B.J. Boyd and right-handers Heath Fillmyer, Casey Meisner, Lou Trivino, and Jake Sanchez) as potential candidates to be added to Oakland’s 40-man, lest they be taken by another team in the Rule 5 Draft, which takes place in December.
Giancarlo Stanton Rumors: Sunday
Rumors continue to swirl around Marlins right fielder and trade candidate Giancarlo Stanton early this offseason. Here’s the latest on the NL MVP:
- The Cardinals “have made a formal offer” to acquire Stanton, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). They’re at least the second team to make a pitch to the Marlins for Stanton, joining the previously reported Giants.
- There are some evaluators around MLB who believe the Marlins need a “reality check” with regards to their asking price for the slugger, Buster Olney of ESPN writes. With $295MM left on his contract and an opt-out clause after 2020 on his deal, Stanton lacks surplus value, per Olney, which jibes with a Morosi report from earlier this week. One executive told Olney that the Marlins are “not going to find teams willing to give up both the money and the prospects, and that’s why [they’ll] probably have to choose: They can either take the talent and eat some of the money, or they’ll have to prioritize the [money] savings.”
MLBPA Sets Monday Deadline For Posting System Negotiations
Nov. 19: Monday’s deadline is set for 8 p.m. ET, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link).
Nov. 17: MLB commissioner Rob Manfred told reporters that he expects an agreement to be reached (link via ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick). “I don’t sense that this is a disconnect with the union,” said Manfred. “These are relatively small issues. … I don’t think they’re earth-shattering.”
In fact, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the union’s issues with the proposed agreement aren’t necessarily related to Ohtani. The union is on board with extending the current agreement for one year but takes umbrage with several components of the system that would go into place next offseason.
The system, as currently constructed, would allow NPB teams to post players throughout the majority of the offseason; the union, not wanting domestic free agency to be held up by the uncertainty of whether Japanese players will be posted, wants NPB teams to make that call by Nov. 15.
The new proposal also awards the NPB team a sum that is equal to 20 percent of the contract the player signs with an MLB team (not 20 percent of his actual contract, though) and allows the NPB club to rescind its posting of a player if it is unsatisfied with the contract to which he agrees. Rosenthal notes that MLB allowed the pullback provision due to NPB concerns that a player could sign a small deal and then sign a much larger extension within a year or two.
Beyond the extension matter, though, it’s easy to see where NPB might take issue to the 20 percent system without the ability to withdraw its player. The new system bears some similarity to the previous blind bidding system. Under that iteration of the posting system (which is still in place with the Korea Baseball Organization), all 30 teams were allowed to submit blind bids for posted players. That player’s NPB team would then have the ability to accept or reject the top bid.
There’s no word yet on how NPB views the MLBPA’s wish to remove the “pullback” component, but it’s not hard to imagine they’d be reluctant to agree without that luxury. With no way of knowing precisely how MLB clubs would value a player, an NPB club would be taking a significant risk by posting one of its stars and then merely hoping that an MLB team would be willing to pay enough to make the posting of said player profitable.
Both the blind bidding system and the current $20MM maximum give NPB teams some degree of up-front knowledge of how they’ll be compensated; without the “pullback” system in this scenario, they’d effectively be rolling the dice on how MLB teams value their top talents. In the case of a legitimate superstar, there’d be little reason for concern. Rather, there’d be upside, as clubs with that rare caliber of player would stand to gain considerably more than the current $20MM maximum. But in the case of above-average players that aren’t necessarily at the Ohtani or Yu Darvish level, that system would be substantially more risk-laden and may simply prevent NPB clubs from posting all but star-level talents.
Nov. 16: The MLBPA has set a Monday deadline to come to an agreement on a new posting system, Heyman now tweets. If the union sticks to that deadline, MLB clubs will have clarity on Ohtani’s availability as much as two weeks earlier than Halem initially suggested.
Nov. 15, 10:10pm: The MLBPA is still holding up negotiations, per FanRag’s Jon Heyman. While MLB, NPB and the MLBPA are presently at a “standstill,” there’s still optimism that an agreement will eventually be worked out. Heyman reported last week that the union had significant concerns regarding the fact that the Fighters would stand to receive a $20MM windfall while Ohtani himself would only be compensated at a maximum level of about $3.5MM.
12:12pm: The hope is that Major League Baseball and Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball will finalize a new posting system at some point in early December, MLB Chief Legal Officer Dan Halem tells reporters including Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).
Until that comes to pass, Japanese sensation Shohei Ohtani will not be able to begin the process of moving to the majors. At this point, an agreement on the system seems to be all that stands in the way of what promises to be a fascinating posting.
Poll: Will The Rays Trade Chris Archer?
Even though Rays general manager Erik Neander suggested last week that the team plans to keep its top trade chip, Chris Archer, the right-hander still figures to frequent the rumor mill this offseason. On Saturday, for instance, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported that the Rays may well listen to offers on their priciest veterans, including Archer, this winter. The 29-year-old Archer certainly isn’t expensive – he’s controllable through 2021 at just $33.75MM – but removing his team-friendly contract would nonetheless help the Rays in their quest to cut payroll. Plus, with Boston and New York looking primed to serve as major American League East obstacles in the coming years, it could behoove the Rays to embark on a rebuild in the wake of four straight sub-.500 seasons and try to return to relevance down the road.
Trading Archer would be a near-term white flag from Tampa Bay, but it would go a long way toward helping the club further beef up its already deep farm system. The hard-throwing workhorse’s presence on the trade market would undoubtedly spark a bidding war, given both his ultra-affordable contract and front-line track record. Since debuting in 2012, Archer has pitched to a 3.63 ERA/3.46 FIP and notched 9.72 K/9 against 2.94 BB/9. He’s now coming off his third straight 200-inning season, one that saw him overshadow a merely decent ERA (4.07) with career-best marks in K/9 (11.15), BB/9 (2.69) and swinging-strike rate (13.4 percent).
Every team would love to add such an appealing starter, but some aren’t close enough to contention to justify seriously pursuing a trade for him, while others probably don’t have good enough farm systems to come out on top in an Archer sweepstakes. Of last season’s playoff teams, the Twins, Cubs (one of Archer’s ex-organizations) and Rockies stand out as clubs that would benefit the most from acquiring Archer, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see any of the Astros, Dodgers (led by former Rays GM Andrew Friedman, who traded for Archer in Tampa Bay), Nationals or Yankees attempt to land him. Meanwhile, none of the Brewers, Cardinals, Braves or Phillies qualified for the postseason in 2017, but all of those clubs have above-average systems and are seemingly on the upswing. Those factors, not to mention issues in each of their rotations, would make Archer a reasonable target.
Any talk of an offseason Archer trade will go down as much ado about nothing if the Rays don’t opt for a major rebuild, but as Topkin suggested, it’s at least under consideration. Should the Rays take that extreme route, Archer would shake up a pitching market that includes a couple top-tier free agent starters (Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta), with another potentially on the way in Japanese star Shohei Ohtani. For teams that can’t or don’t want to dish out nine-figure contracts to Darvish or Arrieta, and for those that miss out on the highly coveted Ohtani, Archer would make for an enticing alternative via trade.
(Poll link for App users)
Will the Rays trade Chris Archer this offseason?
-
No 51% (5,314)
-
Yes 49% (5,076)
Total votes: 10,390
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
MLBTR Originals
Recapping MLBTR’s original content from the past week:
- Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani will only be able to sign a minor league deal this offseason if he comes to the majors, though he could conceivably ink a more lucrative extension early in his MLB tenure. Tim Dierkes examined that possibility in depth.
- Tim also looked ahead to next year’s class of free agent starters, which could include Clayton Kershaw, and concluded that teams in need of rotation help shouldn’t wait until then to make upgrades. If Kershaw will remain with the Dodgers, it would leave a fairly unexciting group of available starters, so pitching-needy teams would be better served to strike now.
- Padres closer Brad Hand figures to draw widespread interest if the team shops him in the coming months. With that in mind, Kyle Downing sought an ideal match for Hand in a potential deal.
- The latest editions of this year’s Offseason Outlook series focused on the Nationals, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Royals and Padres.
- This winter’s Free Agent Profile series (links: 1, 2) kicked off with looks at the pros, cons and markets for center fielder Lorenzo Cain and utilityman Eduardo Nunez.
AL Rumors: Indians, Orioles, Machado, Red Sox
While it’s unclear if any deals will materialize, a slew of Indians drew trade interest at this month’s general managers meetings, according to Terry Pluto of cleveland.com. Specifically, teams inquired about a few Indians pitchers – including right-handers Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger – as well as catchers Roberto Perez and Yan Gomes. Clubs also approached the Tribe about a couple less heralded members of the organization in outfielder Greg Allen and minor league righty Shane Bieber, Pluto adds. Of those players, it’s clear Carrasco would warrant the largest return, but there’s no reason for the Indians to move him. Conversely, the Tribe would be open to dealing either Perez or Gomes, Pluto suggests, considering the team has high-end prospect Francisco Mejia waiting in the wings behind those two.
More from a pair of other American League cities:
- The Orioles will wait until later in the offseason to discuss extensions with third baseman Manny Machado and center fielder Adam Jones, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com relays. Kubatko doesn’t expect an extension for Machado to come to fruition, which isn’t surprising given that he’s primed sign a mega-deal on the open market a year from now. Interestingly, though, Kubatko hears that Machado would prefer to play shortstop instead of third base, which could make a potential trip to free agency all the more intriguing. Machado logged 52 appearances at short between 2015-16 but has otherwise played the hot corner since debuting in 2012.
- Closer Zach Britton, another high-profile Oriole entering a contract year, likely wouldn’t bring back a great return via trade this offseason, Buster Olney of ESPN.com observes. While the Orioles are open to trading Britton, his lack of team control, high salary (a projected $12.2MM in arbitration) and recent arm problems figure to tamp down his value, Olney writes. Still, whether it’s Britton, Darren O’Day or Brad Brach, Baltimore seems poised to move one of its most established relievers and use the money it saves on much-needed starting pitching help, per Olney.
- More from Olney, who reports that the Red Sox and three-time World Series-winning manager Tony La Russa discussed having him serve as rookie skipper Alex Cora’s bench coach. Instead, Boston hired La Russa as a special assistant to president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and replaced previous bench coach Gary DiSarcina with Ron Roenicke. La Russa, 73, hasn’t been part of a coaching staff since he managed the Cardinals to a title in 2011.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/19/17
The latest minor moves from around the game:
- The Tigers have signed corner infielder Edwin Espinal to a minor league contract, the player announced on Instagram (h/t: Evan Woodbery of MLive.com, on Twitter). Detroit’s the second major league organization for the 23-year-old Espinal, who spent the first seven seasons of his pro career with the Pirates. A .279/.323/.389 hitter in 2,435 lifetime minor league plate appearances, Espinal reached the Triple-A level for the first time in 2017 and batted .323/.341/.369 with no home runs across 135 PAs. He shined more as a defensive first baseman, taking home a Gold Glove Award for his work at the minors’ two highest levels.
Morosi’s Latest: Rangers, Cards, Rockies, Phillies
A few early morning free agent rumors from Jon Morosi of MLB.com…
- The Rangers “have had preliminary contact” with right-hander Alex Cobb‘s representatives, Morosi writes. Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported earlier this month that the starter-needy Rangers covet Cobb, one of the top hurlers on the open market. Cobb returned in earnest from 2015 Tommy John surgery last season to turn in a career-best 179 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA pitching, with 6.42 K/9, 2.21 BB/9 and a 47.8 percent groundball rate.
- The Cardinals and Rockies are among teams with interest in reliever Brandon Kintzler, whose experience as a closer has executives wondering if a club will sign him to handle that role, according to Morosi. Both the Cardinals and Rockies need more than ninth-inning help, as each team has seen multiple key relievers hit free agency this month. The 33-year-old Kintzler has overcome a paucity of strikeouts to ride a low-walk, high-grounder combination to success throughout his career, including in a 2017 campaign that saw the righty amass a career-high 29 saves between Minnesota and Washington (28 with the Twins).
- The Phillies are one of the teams eyeing left-hander Jake McGee, reports Morosi, who notes that the reliever was once teammates with new Philadelphia skipper Gabe Kapler in Tampa Bay. With Colorado in 2017, McGee, 31, posted a 3.61 ERA and logged 9.1 K/9, 2.51 BB/9 and a 40.5 percent grounder rate over 57 1/3 innings. Along the way, he was effective against both righty- and lefty-swingers, the latter of whom had their way against Phillies relievers (.270/.347/.459).