MLBTR Mailbag: Camargo, Ellsbury, Pirates, International Money
Thanks for sending your questions in this week. Remember, you can also throw inquiries at our writers in our weekly chats. I host mine at 2pm CST on Tuesdays, Jason Martinez goes at 6:30pm CST on Wednesdays, and you’ll find Jeff Todd at 2pm CST on Thursdays.
“Coming up through the Braves system Johan Camargo was primarily known solely for his defense. He carried with him the ability to hit for contact, but that was about it, from an offensive standpoint. Even taking into consideration the small sample size and all, is Camargo’s early success sustainable? And also, I’m just curious, but should the Braves consider trading Johan Camargo over the off-season?” — Richard C.
I don’t think it’s all that sustainable. Camargo’s sporting a .371 BABIP that is 30 points higher than his mark in a small sample at Triple-A this year and nearly 60 points higher than the .317 mark he had in a full season at Double-A in 2016. He’s doing so despite the fact that his 27.2 percent hard-contact rate is more than five percent worse than the league average. Camargo doesn’t make much hard contact — there are more than 200 players with a higher average exit velocity than his 87.3 mph — and he hasn’t shown much in the way of discipline. He’s posted a 4.4 percent walk rate and a 36 percent chase rate on pitches out of the strike (league average this year is 29.8 percent).
Maybe he’s a useful utility player moving forward, but I can’t imagine him displacing Swanson or Albies as a long-term piece in the middle infield. (Camargo is at .302/.331/.477 through 182 PAs to Swanson’s .273/.330/.406 through his first 183 career PAs at a younger age and without any Triple-A development.) I also can’t envision any team parting with a significant haul to get him based on roughly two months of largely BABIP-fueled production. His bat is already coming back down to earth; it’ll take signs of more sustainable improvement to buy into him as a future regular.
“How much salary would the Yankees need to eat if Jacoby Ellsbury were willing to accept a trade to the Giants and what type of return could the Yankees expect to get back for him? I figure if the Yankees make the Giants responsible for $5-7M annually they can probably get an organizational 10-20 prospect maybe?” — Stan L.
Lots and lots of Ellsbury questions in this mailbag, which isn’t surprising with the way Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks and Clint Frazier have played.
To be blunt: I don’t think there’s any way the Yankees could get a respectable prospect from any system, even if they eat as much of the contract as you said. Ellsbury isn’t playing like he’s worth that sum at this point, hitting .187/.291/.240 through 87 plate appearances since returning from the disabled list. If he were coming back from a rolled ankle or a strained quad, perhaps that’d be easier to overlook, but he’s returning from a concussion that shelved him for about a month.
Getting a even a mid-range prospect from another organization would imply that the hypothetical trading partner feels there’s some level of surplus value in what they’re acquiring, thus justifying the exchange of an asset with modest value. But there’s just no surplus value even in a three-year commitment to Ellsbury (2018-20), even at the relatively modest levels you posit, when he’s set to turn 34 next month and is struggling to this extent following a concussion. Even if he were healthy, the asking price you laid out would be steep. Besides, the Giants are going to look to get younger in the outfield rather than adding another aging veteran to pair with Denard Span and Hunter Pence.
“Any chance the Pirates try to move Andrew McCutchen as an August waiver trade in order to avoid having to make the decision on whether to pick up his 2018 option? If so, what value do they likely get back in return?” — Scott K.
I can’t see any way that McCutchen would be traded in August, because he’d never make it through waivers. Even if the Pirates don’t want to pay him $14.5MM in 2018 — which would be a surprise, given how excellent he’s been over the past few months — they could just pick up the option and trade him anyhow. They got legitimate interest in him last year when he was expensive and coming off the worst year of his career. He’d draw similar or greater interest this winter following a rebound at the plate.
“Could you give a refresher on how the international pool money works? I saw that the Yankees acquired $1.5M from the A’s in International Pool Money, doesn’t seem like much (compared to contracts) but I’m sure I’m missing out on a key piece. Do teams not just bid for the right to negotiate now?” — Nathan C.
You’re probably thinking of the posting system for international professionals — players like Masahiro Tanaka, Yu Darvish, etc. The Yankees acquired $1.5MM that will go toward their league-allotted pool from which they can sign international amateurs — that is, players that are under the age of 25 and/or have fewer than five years of pro experience in a foreign league. Most international amateurs are signed as teenagers and come with little fanfare at the time, though the Yankees have strongly built up their system via aggressive spending on that front.
The newest collective bargaining agreement placed a hard cap on how much teams can spend on international amateurs, with allotted pools ranging from $4.75MM to $5.75MM. The Yankees, as a team that is not a part of the Competitive Balance Lottery (due to market size and revenue), began the current international signing period with a bonus pool of $4.75MM. The money they picked up from the A’s in the Sonny Gray trade and from the Orioles in the Yefry Ramirez trade will add to that pool. (Teams can acquire up to 75 percent of their original allotment.) Many are also wondering whether this cash could help the Yanks if they pursue Shohei Otani (should he attempt to move to the majors this winter); the answer is yes, although the extent to which bonus money availability will sway his decision isn’t yet known.
Tigers Place Michael Fulmer On 10-Day DL
The Tigers have placed prized righty Michael Fulmer on the 10-day DL, as Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports. He has been diagnosed with ulnar neuritis in his right elbow.
While any elbow-related issue is always cause for some concern, there’s no reason to think there is any structural problem here. As manager Brad Ausmus noted, it is sometimes necessary to treat this issue with surgery — see, e.g., here — but that’s not currently an option. Regardless, there is no reason to think the nerve issue could balloon into a larger issue.
For the time being, Fulmer will simply take a week off while receiving treatment for inflammation. The idea, he says, is “to give me time to let the nerve calm down a little bit.” Fulmer added that he has experienced these symptoms — “numbing and tingling in the last two fingers” — for some time, but never previously during a game.
Fulmer, 24, will hope to bounce right back onto the mound after a brief layoff, though surely the club will be watching closely and won’t take any chances. After all, he is one of the best young starters in baseball. Fulmer has thrown 299 1/3 innings of 3.31 ERA ball since the start of the 2016 season, and won’t qualify for arbitration until after the 2018 season — when he’s lined up to be a Super Two.
Minor MLB Transactions: 8/3/17
Here are Thursday’s minor moves from around the game…
- Per an announcement from the Indians, righty Perci Garner has been released after clearing waivers. Garner was designated for assignment recently. The 28-year-old cracked the majors briefly last year and showed well in the minors, but he has missed a lot of time in 2017 for injury reasons that remain less than clear. When he has pitched, his control issues have resurfaced. Through 14 1/3 Double-A frames, Garner permitted nine walks but also rang up 18 strikeouts while allowing five runs on only seven hits. But he managed to permit seven earned runs on only one hit in his three appearances at Triple-A, owing to eight free passes in just 1 1/3 innings.
- The Marlins have acquired outfielder Eury Perez from the Pirates, per an announcement from the Indianapolis Indians. Perez had been playing for Indianapolis, the Bucs’ top affiliate, since joining the organization on a minors deal over the winter. He has been productive at the plate (.336/.400/.433) continued to run wild on the bases (22 steals) in a fifty game sample. Perez has seen MLB action in four seasons, though he has just 156 total plate appearances — with a poor .254/.307/.282 batting line — at the game’s highest level.
- The Tigers are set to select the contract of veteran right-hander Edward Mujica, reports SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (on Twitter). The 33-year-old hasn’t pitched in the Majors since 2015, as he’s spent the past season plus between the Triple-A affiliates for the Phillies, Royals, Twins and Tigers. The former Cardinals closer has generally been excellent in Toledo this season, though, logging 46 innings with 7.4 K/9, 1.0 BB/9 and a 36.5 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 2.35 earned run average. He’ll join a Tigers ‘pen that has an MLB-worst 5.18 ERA and recently traded its best reliever, Justin Wilson.
MLBTR Chat: Orioles, Giants, Arenado
Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.
Brewers Outright Wily Peralta, Kirk Nieuwenhuis
The Brewers announced today that right-hander Wily Peralta and outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis have both cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Colorado Springs.
The 28-year-old Peralta was designated for assignment on Saturday, and Milwaukee was apparently unable to find a taker for him in any trade talks that may have occurred. No team felt comfortable claiming the remaining $1.4MM on his $4.275MM salary, either, so Peralta will return to the Brewers’ Triple-A affiliate.
While the fact that Peralta has more than three years of Major League service time allows him to refuse the outright assignment, the fact that he has fewer than five years of service also means that he would forfeit that remaining $1.4MM in order to hit the free-agent market. Peralta will earn that $1.4MM through season’s end whether he’s on the 40-man roster or not, but if he isn’t on the 40-man at the end of the year, he’ll have the right to elect free agency.
It’s been a tough year for Milwaukee’s former Opening Day starter. Peralta posted a 6.08 ERA with a 32-to-17 K/BB ratio through eight starts this season before losing his spot in the rotation and heading to the bullpen. While his strikeout rate and velocity ticked up working in relief, his walk rate also ballooned. Ultimately, Peralta surrendered 23 earned runs on 28 hits and 15 walks in just 17 1/3 frames out of the Brewer bullpen.
As for Nieuwenhuis, the veteran outfielder spent most of the 2016 campaign on the Brewers’ big league roster but has just 16 games and 31 plate appearances to his credit thus far in 2017. He’s hit just .115/.268/.269 in that time, though he’s a career .221/.311/.384 hitter in parts of six big league seasons. He’s in a similar situation to Peralta in that he agreed to a split deal this past winter that reportedly pays him $900K in the Majors and $257K in the minors (each pro-rated). He’d have forfeited the remainder of that contract had he gone the free-agent route.
Submit Your Questions For This Week’s MLBTR Mailbag
We’re bringing back the MLBTR mailbag for the month of August — which could be a busy one with many potential candidates to be traded. (Read more on how August trades work.) Send your questions on recent swaps, trades that could still take place in the coming month, or any other topic to mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com, and we’ll answer as many as we can.
Remember, you can also pose questions to our writing team during our three weekly live chats — Tuesdays at 2pm CST with Steve Adams, Wednesdays at 6:30pm with Jason Martinez, and Thursdays at 2pm with Jeff Todd.
Mets Notes: Asdrubal, Bruce, Wright
Heartened by the improved play of Asdrubal Cabrera at third base and the versatility it adds to his repertoire, the Mets are “warming” to the idea of exercising Cabrera’s 2018 club option, reports Newsday’s Marc Carig. As Carig points out, Cabrera’s $8.5MM option comes with a relatively notable $2MM buyout, so the decision on him effectively comes down to a one-year, $6.5MM call. The Mets had been shopping Cabrera more aggressively earlier in July but actually backed off a bit leading up to the non-waiver deadline, according to Carig. New York is hardly closed off to the idea of trading Cabrera, but with the possibility of receiving only a marginal return in an August deal, the Mets may also simply elect to plan for him to play multiple positions at a reasonable rate in 2018. Cabrera, 32 in November, is hitting .262/.338/.405 with nine homers in 2017.
More on the Mets…
- Carig also reports that the Mets have “explored” the possibility of keeping Jay Bruce beyond the 2017 season — an arrangement that would leave Michael Conforto as the team’s primary center fielder at least for a few years. GM Sandy Alderson has expressed growing confidence that Conforto could handle that spot, however, Carig continues. The two sides have yet to discuss an extension, per Carig, but the Mets could make Bruce a qualifying offer and/or pursue a reunion in free agency. The 30-year-old Bruce is hitting .265/.329/.538 with 29 homers and vastly improved defensive ratings in 2017. The New York Post’s Mike Puma, meanwhile, wrote yesterday that Bruce seems intent on exploring the free agent market but also wouldn’t rule out a return to the Mets. “I’m not in the bridge-burning business,” said Bruce before explaining that he’ll consider all opportunities and scenarios.
- Third baseman David Wright has been cleared to resume “light baseball activities” after finishing extensive rehab work with an orthopedic specialist, writes Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. Wright has played catch and begun some light fielding drills, per Ackert, who notes that throwing was the biggest difficulty for Wright when he was shut down back in Spring Training. With the team’s 2018 outlook at third base currently murky — Ackert explores the options at greater length — Wright’s ability or inability to show progress between now and season’s end will be an important factor as the Mets determine their offseason plans.
Jose Bautista On Revocable Trade Waivers
The Blue Jays have placed right fielder Jose Bautista on revocable trade waivers, reports MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal (on Twitter).
As we emphasized yesterday when Justin Verlander was reportedly put through the same process, Bautista’s placement on revocable waivers isn’t at all surprising. Most players will be placed on revocable waivers this month, but the timing of such moves are at least worth noting, as it gives some insight into the point at which a player can be marketed to other clubs (or can no longer be marketed, in the event that they’re claimed and pulled back). Bautista’s waiver period will last 47.5 hours, and his salary makes him a virtual lock to clear. If and when he does clear, the Jays will be able to discuss trades involving Bautista with all 29 other teams, free of restriction.
[Related: How August Trades Work]
Like Verlander, Bautista has full no-trade protection. As such, he could reject not only any trade that the Blue Jays present him but also another team’s claim off of trade waivers (however unlikely that scenario might be).
The 36-year-old Bautista is hitting just .216/.325/.381 with 16 homers thus far in 2017. While he looked every bit of his vintage self in May, slashing a Herculean .317/.412/.644 that month, he’s batted .200 or lower with an OPS of .638 or lower in each of April, June and July. With $5.9MM remaining on this season’s $18MM salary, plus a $500K buyout of a 2018 mutual option still owed to him, Bautista looks immovable unless the Blue Jays are willing to pay down some of the remaining money on that contract.
The Jays may well seek to do that, but Bautista will likely need to show some signs of life at the plate before any club expresses interest. There should be no shortage of corner bats available this month after so few moved off the market prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, so teams on the lookout for such players will have options that are more productive and less expensive than Bautista.
Giants Designate Conor Gillaspie For Assignment
Following last night’s game, the Giants designated third baseman Conor Gillaspie for assignment and optioned infielder Jae-gyun Hwang back to Triple-A Sacramento, as Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area writes. In their place, the Giants have recalled infield/outfield prospect Ryder Jones from Sacramento and activated outfielder Jarrett Parker from the disabled list.
Gillaspie, 30, returned to the Giants organization for a second stint in 2016 and hit ..262/.307/.440 in 205 regular-season plate appearance before emerging as a postseason hero and cementing himself in Giants lore. With the Giants and Mets locked into a scoreless Madison Bumgarner vs. Noah Syndergaard pitching duel, it was Gillaspie who eventually broke the deadlock with a dramatic one-out, three-run homer in the ninth inning against New York closer Jeurys Familia. Gillaspie would later have a 4-for-4 showing in the decisive Game 4 of the NLDS, though the Giants nonetheless dropped that game and series to the eventual World Champion Cubs.
This season, however, has been entirely different for Gillaspie. He’s spent roughly two months of the year on the disabled list due to ongoing back spasms and back discomfort, and when he’s been healthy enough to take the field, he’s been unproductive in a limited role. Through 87 plate appearances, he’s hitting .163/.218/.288 with a pair of homers.
Notably, Pavlovic suggests that Jones will get the opportunity to establish himself as an everyday player in the wake of Wednesday’s late-night moves. The 23-year-old former second-round pick (2013) has enjoyed an excellent season in Triple-A, hitting .312/.396/.574 with 13 homers, 19 doubles and a pair of triples through 273 plate appearances. He didn’t get a lengthy look in his initial audition with the Giants earlier in 2017, but it seems that San Francisco decision-makers are prepared to see what they have on their hands in Jones as they seek to evaluate their needs for the 2018 campaign.
Jones also has experience in the outfield corners and at first base, so he could settle in as a versatile semi-regular, even if Christian Arroyo returns in 2018 and lays claim to the third base role. However, Pavlovic explains that Arroyo, like fellow prospects Austin Slater and Tyler Beede, may not make it back to the field at all in 2017 due to injury. Arroyo suffered a fractured hand when he was hit by a pitch in Triple-A earlier this month.
Central Notes: Twins, Lopez, Winker, Reds
A pair of Twins pitchers are set to resume throwing tomorrow, according to statements from each via Twitter. Righty Trevor May, who is contributing at MLBTR while working back from Tommy John surgery, says he will begin his march back in earnest. That drew a reply from southpaw Hector Santiago, who says he’ll do the same; he has been out for nearly a month with what the team called upper thoracic back pain and discomfort. There’s no expectation that May will return during the 2017 season, as his procedure took place this March. But Santiago conceivably could. The 29-year-old has every incentive to do just that, as he’s slated to hit the market this fall and would surely like a chance to improve upon the subpar results he has produced during his time in Minnesota.
More from the game’s Central divisions…
- While the Twins had some other possible trade chips to move, the team never came close to making any deals beyond those it completed, assistant GM Rob Antony tells Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (Twitter link). There was little in the way of rumors surrounding shorter-term assets like Ervin Santana, Brian Dozier or Eduardo Escobar prior to the deadline, so perhaps the team’s preference was simply to engage with other clubs on impending free agents such as Jaime Garcia and Brandon Kintzler. Speculatively speaking, righty Matt Belisle could be a name to watch in August. He’s playing on an eminently affordable one-year, $2.05MM deal and rebounded from an awful month of May with a solid June and a scoreless 12 2/3 frames (with a 13-to-2 K/BB ratio) in July.
- White Sox prospect Reynaldo Lopez, acquired in the offseason Adam Eaton trade, is forcing his way into the team’s big league plans, general manager Rick Hahn tells Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago. “He’s forcing the issue,” said Hahn. “He’s had several starts in a row that have been very impressive.” Indeed, Lopez has turned in a 2.16 ERA with a 54-to-11 K/BB ratio in his past 41 2/3 innings. Hahn also offered praise for Lucas Giolito‘s recent work, though those numbers are skewed by a pair of drubbings in an otherwise solid run of 11 starts. Lopez recently appeared on the latest installment of Jason Martinez’s “Knocking Down the Door” series here at MLBTR and seems to be nearing his first Major League look with the ChiSox.
- Reds outfield prospect Jesse Winker, who was recalled from Triple-A this week, is in line for regular playing time in the Majors now, per Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). The Reds tabbed Winker with the 49th overall pick in the 2012 draft, and he’s been considered among the game’s top 100 or so prospects for much of the past three years. Winker had a cup of coffee earlier this season but returned to Triple-A in short order, where he ultimately put together a .314/.395/.408 showing. Wrist injuries have led to a power outage for Winker over the past two seasons, but he looks to be regaining some of the pop he showed from 2013-15, as he’s homered in consecutive games for the Reds (including tonight).
- Buchanan also provides some updates on a trio of injured Reds players in a full column. Outfielder Scott Schebler, whose absence has helped create an opening for Winker, was diagnosed with a bruised rotator cuff following an MRI exam. He’s out for at least the next two to three weeks, per Buchanan. Injured righty Scott Feldman, meanwhile, threw a three-inning simulated game today, though the timeline on his return to the Majors isn’t yet clear. And second base prospect Dilson Herrera, who had a bone spur removed from his shoulder recently, will be cleared to begin throwing in three to four months. Buchanan’s column has more quotes and context from manager Bryan Price and Reds team doctor Timothy Kremchek, so Reds fans should take a look for more details.