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Notes On Tim Tebow In Advance Of Today’s Showcase

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Better known for his college football prowess and brief but intrigue-filled NFL career, former quarterback Tim Tebow is stepping onto the diamond today in an effort to show that he is worth developing as a corner outfielder. It’s questionable whether he can make the transition at the age of 29, which is about the time that many top major leaguers are reaching free agency. You can read more background and details of today’s showcase right here.

Here are the latest notes before scouts get their first look:

  • Tebow’s undertaking to pursue a late-breaking baseball career grew from a side consideration into a full-blown effort, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick writes. While Tebow has begun to make believers out of some of those who have worked with him — including former MLB backstop Chad Moeller and long-time big league pitcher David Aardsma — he still has some work to do in convincing scouts and front offices. But Crasnick explains that there are some in the baseball ops world who are genuinely intrigued by a player who did turn some heads back in his high school days — if mostly for his pure athletic ability and evident leadership skills. Those inclined to learn more about Tebow’s unique quest would do well to read all of Crasnick’s detailed, rather interesting piece.
  • Even before he hits the field today, Tebow has drawn an offer from a respected Venezuelan winter league team, the Aguilas del Zulia, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. The team’s general manager, Luis Amaro — brother of former Phillies executive and current Red Sox coach Ruben Amaro Jr. — says that Tebow is “a great talent.” While it remains to be seen whether his athletic ability can fully translate, Amaro says it’s worth finding out: “I know baseball is a hard game,” he said, “but he’ll either adjust and show he’s ready to play pro ball or not. I think it’s low risk, high reward for Zulia.”
  • Certainly, a Venezuelan winter ball assignment wouldn’t be the equivalent of leaping to the majors, but it represents a stiff test for any player. Many current and hopeful big leaguers hone their skills there and in other winter ball settings. Notably, too, Aardsma says that he believes Tebow is capable of reaching the Double-A level as soon as the 2017 season, the veteran reliever told Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News.

Submit Your MLBTR Mailbag Questions

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With August nearing an end, it’s last call for teams to add players from outside their organizations who’ll be eligible to play in the postseason. It’s also time we put in a call for another mailbag. Submit your questions via email to mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com.

Wondering about final roster tweaks? Questions about arbitration decisions that are right around the corner? Have thoughts on how the free agent market might be shaping up? Send ’em our way!

East Notes: Red Sox, Marlins, Albies, Snitker, McCann, Verrett

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Recent struggles in the Red Sox bullpen look ominously familiar to president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, writes ESPN Boston’s Scott Lauber. As Lauber notes, a faulty bullpen was a frequent Achilles heel for Dombrowski’s Tigers teams that made the postseason (or came close to doing so), and the relief corps is the weak link for Boston right now. The July acquisitions of Brad Ziegler and Fernando Abad haven’t been enough to solidify the staff (Abad has struggled quite a bit), leaving manager John Farrell with a great deal of uncertainty in the late innings. A return for Koji Uehara (more on that here), a successful transition to the bullpen for Clay Buchholz or Joe Kelly, and a last-minute add from outside the organization are three possible saving graces, Lauber writes, noting that Kelly in particular has excelled out of the bullpen at Triple-A Pawtucket.

More from the AL East…

  • The Marlins are finally making good, to some extent, on the hopes and expectations that they carried into the 2015 season, and Patrick Dubuque of Baseball Prospectus breaks down the roster moves that set the stage for an interesting 2016 campaign. While most pundits were down on the organization’s dealings, many haven’t turned out as badly as feared. In the meantime, the club has received highly unexpected results from many players — some negative, but many quite positive (albeit questionably sustainable). Dubuque remains bearish on the Miami organization; you’ll want to give his piece a full read to gather the details.
  • MLB.com’s Mark Bowman fielded some relevant questions from Braves fans. Among other items, he notes that the club now seems somewhat unlikely to promote infielder Ozzie Albies to join prospective double-play mate Dansby Swanson in the majors this year — even though he still has a chance at playing a major role in 2017. Speaking of next year, Bowman says it wouldn’t be surprising at this point if interim skipper Brian Snitker is retained, though the team has several other internal and external candidates it may wish to consider.
  • The Braves’ interest in bringing back Brian McCann will likely be revived in the offseason, Bowman further writes. He no longer looks like a terribly plausible trade candidate right now, and Atlanta may wish to explore the free agent market first. Improving the situation behind the plate and bolstering the rotation remain the club’s two major offseason goals, he adds. The team may also look at a third baseman, he suggests.
  • The Mets are likely to bring righty Logan Verrett back to the majors today, ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin reports. While fellow right-hander Rafael Montero delivered some useful frames yesterday, he’ll need regular rest and isn’t expected to command a rotation spot anyway, so the club will use the opportunity to add a fresh arm to the mix. Verrett, 26, has turned in 25 2/3 quality frames as a reliever, but has struggled to a 6.45 ERA over a dozen starts on the year.

6 Impending Free Agents Who Have Hurt Their Stock

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While the free agent market for the upcoming offseason didn’t look overly appealing entering the current campaign, it appears even weaker now that several prominent contract-year players haven’t lived up to their previous standards in 2016. As seen on this list, plenty of impending free agents have endured rough seasons, but the six we’ll highlight have arguably hurt themselves the most.

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Jose Bautista, OF, Blue Jays: Multiple reports during spring training indicated that Bautista, 36 in October, was seeking a long-term pact worth upward of $150MM. If that type of deal seemed like a pipe dream for Bautista back then, it should now be an impossibility. (In a poll conducted yesterday, just 13 percent of MLBTR readers pegged Bautista as the recipient of a free agent deal spanning four or more seasons.) From his out-of-nowhere 2010 breakout through last season, Bautista amassed 3,604 plate appearances and combined to hit a superb .268/.390/.555. Along the way, he accounted for 32.5 fWAR – the majors’ fifth-highest total among position players – walked almost as much as he struck out (15.9 percent to 16.0 percent), and hit 28 more home runs (227) than his nearest competitor, Miguel Cabrera.

The version of Bautista who laid waste to opposing pitchers for six straight years hasn’t been present this season. While he’s still controlling the strike zone with aplomb (60 unintentional walks against 65 punchouts), his .229/.350/.454 line through 380 PAs looks closer to average than to spectacular. Bautista has also gone on the disabled list twice this summer, which would be less alarming if not for his age. Although he vowed in March to defy traditional aging curves, the bottom line is that Bautista has since failed to approach his previous production and dealt with multiple injuries. Those realities don’t bode well for Bautista’s earning power, but he should still reel in a sizable contract from Toronto or someone else. Closing the season on a tear for the World Series-contending Blue Jays would certainly help his cause.

Carlos Gomez, OF, Rangers: Arguably no major leaguer has declined more over the past year than Gomez, who could have lined himself up for a $150MM payday with another excellent season, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes wrote in March. Gomez, whom Houston acquired from Milwaukee for a significant haul last summer, began the season with a .210/.272/.322 line through his first 323 PAs. The Astros then pulled the plug on the Gomez experiment in August, releasing him just over a year after they traded for the erstwhile star.

Gomez caught on with the Rangers shortly after the Astros parted with him, but a change of Texas scenery hasn’t led to anything resembling a turnaround. In his brief stint in Arlington, the 30-year-old has gone 1 for 19 at the dish with 10 strikeouts and no walks. Gomez has never been great at avoiding strikeouts, but the 32.2 percent rate he has put up this year is easily the highest of his career, and it’s 11 percent worse than his clip from 2015. He has shown minimal power in the process, thereby rendering his swing-and-miss spike all the more damning. A plus defender in previous years, Gomez has also experienced a drop-off in the field this season. While he has done well stealing bases (13 of 15), that alone isn’t enough to make the free-falling Gomez a valuable player these days. It also won’t be enough for him to garner much money in the offseason.

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AL Notes: Holland, Uehara, Bedrosian, Maybin

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Rangers lefty Derek Holland has a lot at stake in his final month of the season — and, likely, the postseason to follow — as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News explains. Holland, 29, is not only battling for a spot in the club’s playoff rotation, but also will be auditioning as the team considers whether to pick up his $11MM option for 2017. He has exceeded his limited inning tallies of the prior two campaigns, but still owns only a 4.68 ERA across 84 2/3 frames on the year. But his two outings since returning from his latest DL stint have been quite good — Holland has allowed just two earned runs over 12 innings on eight total hits and one walk, against ten strikeouts — and a continuation of that could make the option desirable once again. As Grant notes, Texas will need to weigh the lack of likely alternatives in free agency. Plus, parting ways with the southpaw would mean paying a $1.5MM buyout for 2017 while also passing on the rights to a $11.5MM option for the 2018 season (while coughing up another $1MM buyout).

Here’s more from the American League:

  • The Red Sox could welcome Koji Uehara back to their bullpen as soon as next Monday, as Tim Britton of the Providence Journal reports. At one point, it seemed that the veteran righty could miss the rest of the season with a pectoral strain, but he’ll instead look to provide a boost to the Sox relief corps down the stretch. While there’s now optimism, Uehara says he won’t push too hard. “It makes no sense to rush at this point in time so I’ll try to be ready when I’m ready,” he said. “The biggest hurdle is getting over the injury mentally. I think I feel pretty good with where I am physically.” It hasn’t quite been a typical campaign for the 41-year-old, who sports an uncharacteristic 4.50 ERA, but he’s still carrying 12.8 K/9 against just 2.3 BB/9 and will be an interesting factor in the free agent market — particularly if he can show that he’s healthy in the final month of the season.
  • Angels righty Cam Bedrosian is still assessing whether to undergo surgery to address a blood clot in his pitching arm, as Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times writes. The procedure would end his season, but the alternative — rest and medication — likely will as well at this point. Either way, it doesn’t appear to be a significant long-term concern, and doesn’t take much away from a breakout season from the 24-year-old. After posting ugly earned run totals in his first two efforts to conquer the big leagues, Bedrosian has tallied 40 1/3 frames of 1.12 ERA ball in 2016 with a strong 11.4 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9 and a 49.5% groundball rate.
  • The Tigers are holding their breath yet again with regard to outfielder Cameron Maybin, who left tonight’s action with another thumb injury. As Evan Woodberry of MLive.com tweets, X-rays on his left thumb were negative, but an MRI has been scheduled for a closer look tomorrow. The 29-year-old has been a key cog for Detroit, slashing .328/.398/.415 with 14 steals over 286 plate appearances, but has already spent two stints on the DL — including one for an injury to the same digit that is causing the new trouble. Regardless of the prognosis, it seems fairly likely that the Tigers will end up seeing value in exercising a $9MM option to retain Maybin for 2017 rather than paying him a $1MM buyout.

Jonathan Papelbon Reunion With Red Sox Increasingly Unlikely

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We’ve heard before both that the Red Sox have expressed real interest in bringing back former closer Jonathan Papelbon and that a signing no longer seems very likely to come to fruition. Today’s comments from Boston president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, via WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford, further cast doubt on the possibility of a reunion.

According to Dombrowski, Papelbon’s failure to sign with the Red Sox or another organization are related to “his own personal reasons.” The veteran executive says that the word the team has received is that Papelbon simply is “not ready to make a decision” at this time.

While that’s certainly well within the veteran reliever’s rights, Dombrowski adds that it impacts the team’s own interest. Papelbon hasn’t appeared on a major league mound for over three weeks, and it isn’t even known just what he has been doing while working out on his own.

“So you’re in a position where you just can’t thrust him out there,” said Dombrowski. “I don’t know what he’s been doing as far as throwing is concerned. I would doubt that he’s been throwing a lot. So you would have to go back out there and build up his arm strength and be in a position to face some hitters. It’s not just inserting him like it would be if you signed him right off the bat.”

It is particularly notable, too, that Papelbon would need to sign before the end of August in order to be eligible to pitch in the post-season. Dombrowski notes that he and his representatives are surely aware of that fact, but are still electing to stand pat for the time being. “It has nothing to do with a club interest,” he said. “It’s just more, for whatever reason, his own decisions are like that.”

All told, it seems increasingly likely that the 35-year-old will be left to re-assess whether he wishes to keep pitching over the offseason. He has experienced his worst season at the major league level thus far in 2016, putting up a 4.37 ERA on the year, representing only the second time he has allowed more than three earned per nine over a single season. While Papelbon was able to punch out eight batters per nine, an improvement on his late-season run with the Nats in 2015, he also posted 3.6 BB/9 — his highest tally since his very first MLB campaign — and ran up a career-low 90.9 mph average four-seamer.

Royals Acquire Daniel Nava

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The Royals have acquired outfielder Daniel Nava from the Angels for a player to be named later or cash, the club announced. Nava will head to Triple-A Omaha.

Nava, 33, has spent the last month at the highest level of the minors after previously losing his roster spot with the Halos. He posted a meager .235/.309/.303 batting line over 136 plate appearances at the major league level, battling injuries along the way.

Things have pointed up since Nava reported to Triple-A, though, as Nava has compiled a .333/.390/.427 slash in 105 trips to the plate. That looks more like the peak 2013 big league numbers that Nava posted with the Red Sox.

While a return to his brief but plenty useful career-best campaign would be a lot to ask for, Kansas City is surely hopeful that Nava can provide a solid bench bat once rosters expand in a few days. The switch hitter has traditionally fared much better against right-handed pitching, so he’d most likely be utilized from the left side almost exclusively.

Minor MLB Transactions: 8/29/16

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Here are the day’s minor moves, all courtesy of Baseball America’s Matt Eddy (except where otherwise noted):

  • The Braves have released backstop George Kottaras, who’ll re-enter the open market not long after he left it to join the Atlanta organization. Kottaras, 33, has only been at Triple-A Gwinnett for about six weeks, but his .196/.328/.294 batting line over 61 plate appearances wasn’t enough to warrant a lengthier stint. The veteran has seen action in seven major league campaigns, posting a useful .215/.326/.411 overall slash in 858 trips to the plate, but he hasn’t seen substantial time at the game’s highest level since 2013.
  • Outfielder Chris Dickerson has signed on with the Orioles on a minor league deal after sitting out the entire season to date. As Dan Connolly of Baltimore Baseball reports, the O’s seem to be looking for another possible major league piece from an unlikely place with this signing. Dickerson, 34, is still working back from shoulder surgery and hasn’t seen the majors since 2014. But he was hitting well before his injury last year, and VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette suggested that he could move into a “fifth outfielder” role at the major league level.
  • The Cubs have cut ties with left-handed reliever C.J. Riefenhauser, per Badler. The 26-year-oldhad briefly reached the majors in each of the last two years. But he was having trouble at the Triple-A level with the Chicago organization, compiling a 4.55 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 5.9 BB/9 over 27 2/3 innings.
  • Left-hander Jason Gurka has been released by the Rockies. He was bombed in brief stints at the majors in each of the last two seasons. But the results were much more promising at Triple-A, where Gurka had a solid campaign in 2015 and was largely lights out this year. In his 21 1/3 innings, he racked up 31 strikeouts against just six walks and permitted only four earned runs.

Gerrit Cole Placed On DL Due To Elbow Inflammation

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The Pirates announced that ace Gerrit Cole has been placed on the disabled list, retroactive to Aug. 25, with “posterior inflammation of the right elbow.” Left-hander Steven Brault is up from Triple-A Indianapolis and will assume Cole’s spot in the rotation against the Cubs tonight.

[Related: Updated Pittsburgh Pirates depth chart]

This will be the second DL stint of the season for Cole, who missed just over a month earlier this summer when he was diagnosed with a strained right triceps. The fourth-place finisher in last year’s National League Cy Young voting, Cole hasn’t looked like himself since being activated from that initial trip to the disabled list, pitching to a 4.73 ERA and yielding 57 hits in 45 2/3 innings. Overall, he’s posted a 3.55 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 46.1 percent ground-ball rate in 114 innings. All of those rates have gone the wrong direction from last season’s masterful numbers, though there’s been very little loss of velocity for Cole.

Brault, 24, will join the Bucs for the second time this season. Originally acquired from the Orioles in the 2015 Travis Snider trade, Brault allowed four earned runs in 10 innings across a pair of starts earlier this season and has enjoyed a solid season at the Triple-A level as well. In 75 1/3 minor league innings this year, Brault has recorded a 3.70 ERA with a career-best 10.3 K/9 against 4.2 BB/9 to go along with a 41.5 percent ground-ball rate.

The loss of Cole is a tough break for a Pirates team that is presently just a half-game back from the Cardinals in the race for the second National League Wild Card spot. However, the struggles of Pittsburgh’s ace over the past several weeks have arguably been more detrimental, and if a short-term layoff allows him to right the ship prior to a theoretical postseason run, the club could come out ahead in the long haul.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Ivan Nova

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We typically think of trade deadline winners and losers being teams, not players, but if September goes as August has, there will have been few bigger trade deadline winners than Ivan Nova. The righty spent years on the fringes of the Yankees’ rotation, but now could hit the open market as a hot commodity after what could turn out to have been a very useful makeover in the Pirates organization.

MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco GiantsIn 97 1/3 innings with the Yankees this season, little went right for Nova. He posted a 4.90 ERA, with a reasonable 6.9 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 but with a stratospheric 1.8 HR/9, and he made only 15 starts while also pitching six times out of the bullpen. He then headed to Pittsburgh in a little-noticed August 1 deal for two players to be named.

Nova figured to perform better with the Pirates, since he was moving to the more pitcher-friendly league and since it’s considerably easier to limit home runs at PNC Park than it is in Yankee Stadium. A.J. Burnett finished his career as a minor hero in Pittsburgh after an uneven tenure in New York, and Nova seemed likely to benefit from the same team change.

The Pirates organization’s reputation for fixing pitchers also figured to help Nova. That reputation has taken a bit of a hit this year with the struggles of Jon Niese, Francisco Liriano and others, but the past successes of J.A. Happ, Edinson Volquez, Mark Melancon, Liriano and Burnett all made Nova’s move look promising.

Since the deal, Nova has greatly exceeded expectations, posting a 2.87 ERA, 6.3 K/9 and only one walk in 31 1/3 innings. It appears the Pirates have helped Nova throw more strikes, and he’s done so with gusto, perhaps in part because he doesn’t have to worry as much about the ball flying out of the stadium if he makes a mistake. Nova’s performance since joining the Pirates looks likely to dramatically improve his standing in the coming offseason.

Of course, it’s still just 31 1/3 innings. There’s time for Nova to falter, and even if he doesn’t, teams perhaps will think twice before making a significant commitment this winter based on only two months of data. But Nova seems likely to benefit from the precedent Happ established last year.

Like Nova, Happ was a fringe starter who joined the Pirates on a forgettable deadline deal and immediately morphed into a completely different pitcher, posting a 1.89 ERA, 9.8 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 63 1/3 innings for Pittsburgh. Better still, he signed with the Blue Jays for three years and $36MM last offseason and continued to perform well with his new team, posting a 3.19 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 155 1/3 innings so far with the Jays. A number of other pitchers who’ve righted their ships in Pittsburgh have enjoyed varying degrees of success elsewhere as well, including Volquez, Jason Grilli, Jeanmar Gomez and Vance Worley. This winter, then, teams will have reason to gamble that Nova will continue to contribute, particularly since he’s only 29.

The next month will be crucial for Nova, and there will be a wide range of possibilities for him in the offseason depending on how he pitches the rest of the year. It might turn out that his first five starts with the Pirates were partially a fluke. This wouldn’t be the first strong, but inconsequential, month he’s ever had — for example, from April 20 through May 19 of this season, he posted a 2.49 ERA while only walking two batters in 25 1/3 innings. But another good month would go a long way toward convincing potential suitors that Nova is for real. If he does continue to pitch well, Nova and his representatives at the Legacy Agency will surely point to Happ’s performance as evidence that small samples can matter. Rich Hill’s performance this year after a handful of outstanding starts with the Red Sox last season will be a good data point for them as well.

Teams will be eager to believe the story Nova will be telling, too, because so little good pitching will be available on the open market. In a free agent market that will be highlighted by pitchers with serious question marks related to age or performance (the key names include Hill, Andrew Cashner, Bartolo Colon, Jeremy Hellickson and Doug Fister), a pitcher who might be the next Happ would stand out in a big way. The fact that the Pirates can’t tag Nova with a qualifying offer will only help his value as well. Volquez got two years and $20MM from the Royals prior to the 2015 season, but if Nova continues to pitch well, he seems likely to get significantly more, given that he’s been better than Volquez was with the Bucs and given the weakness of the market. A three-year deal a long the lines of the one Happ received looks like a real possibility if he can repeat his August excellence. It looks relatively likely, then, that Nova’s performance since the trade will have more than doubled the payday he’ll ultimately receive.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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