Indians Avoid Arbitration With Cody Allen
The Indians and closer Cody Allen have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $7.35MM, tweets Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. Allen is a client of Meister Sports.
Allen, 28, is coming off an outstanding year in which he pitched to a 2.51 ERA with 32 saves, 11.5 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 68 innings of work out of manager Terry Francona’s bullpen. He takes home a significant raise on top of last year’s $4.15MM salary and comes in just shy of the $7.7MM projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. The Indians will control Allen for at least two more seasons, and he’ll be eligible for arbitration one final time next winter.
As can be seen in MLBTR’s 2017 Arbitration Tracker, the Indians have now avoided arb with four of their eight eligible players. In addition to their deal with Allen, the Indians have agreed to one-year pacts with Dan Otero ($1.055MM), Zach McAllister ($1.825MM) and Trevor Bauer ($3.55MM).
Diamondbacks, J.J. Hoover Agree To Minor League Deal
The D-backs and right-hander J.J. Hoover have agreed to a minor league contract, per SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter links). The Ballengee Group client will be invited to Major League Spring Training and has a $900K base salary on his deal. He can also earn up to $425K worth of incentives.
Hoover, 29, opened the season as the favorite for the ninth-inning gig in Cincinnati last year, but he quickly fell out of favor after a rough start. Hoover blew his first save opp of the season and was tagged for 16 earned runs over his next 8 1/3 innings before being optioned to Triple-A Louisville. Hoover looked to have righted the ship a bit upon returning in mid-June, but he stumbled yet again and was optioned a second time before ultimately being outrighted off the 40-man roster. All told, Hoover rounded out the year with a 13.50 ERA in 18 1/3 innings.
While that number is obviously jarring, Hoover did have a nice track record with the Reds before his troublesome 2016 campaign, and he pitched well in his time at Triple-A Louisville. Hoover logged a 3.52 ERA and a 50-to-11 K/BB ratio in 38 1/3 minor league innings this year. And, prior to 2016, he’d notched a 3.34 ERA with 9.1 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9 in 223 2/3 career innings with Cincinnati.
Hoover will join a crowded but unsettled bullpen mix with the D-backs and compete for a job in Spring Training. If he wins a spot in the ‘pen and rebounds from his disastrous 2016 results, the Snakes will be able to control him through the 2019 season via the arbitration process.
Chris Denorfia, Rockies Agree To Minors Deal
The Rockies have agreed to a minor league pact with veteran outfielder Chris Denorfia, tweets Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. He’ll receive an invitation to Major League Spring Training, I’m told.
The 36-year-old Denorfia, a client of Pro Star Management, spent the 2016 season with the Giants organization and batted .269/.329/.408 in 42 minor league games. That marked the first season that he hasn’t appeared in a Major League contest since 2007, as Denorfia has been a fixture on big league rosters for the better part of a decade. A 19th-round pick by the Reds back in 2002, Denorfia broke into the Majors in 2005 and solidified himself as a big league role player with the Padres in 2010, when he hit .271/.335/.433 in 99 games with San Diego.
From 2010-15, Denorfia enjoyed a part-time role with the Padres, Mariners and Cubs, averaging 118 games and 358 plate appearances per season while hitting a combined .271/.327/.393. He’s at his best when facing left-handed pitching, as evidenced by the .285/.353/.424 batting line he compiled against them in that time (compared to a .261/.308/.371 slash against righties). Denorfia has more than 1000 Major League innings at all three outfield positions, although he’s worked much more in the corners than in center field. He’s drawn consistently above-average marks in right and left field from both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating.
Obviously, the Rockies have a crowded outfield mix as it is, though Denorfia will bring a right-handed bat to what currently lines up as an all-lefty mix. David Dahl, Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez currently seem like the favorites to serve as regulars in new manager Bud Black’s outfield. (Black, it should be pointed out, knows Denorfia quite well from his Padres days.) Gerardo Parra is on-hand as yet another southpaw-swinging fourth option. Colorado did sign Ian Desmond, who showed fairly well in his first season of outfield work with the 2016 Rangers, but Desmond is set to serve as their everyday first baseman barring the seemingly unlikely trade of an outfielder.
Rockies GM Jeff Bridich has recently voiced a desire to add some complementary pieces to his bench mix, and Denorfia could give the Rox a right-handed bat off the bench that can fill in at all three outfield spots as needed and match up nicely against lefties, should he ultimately crack the big league roster.
Nationals, Neal Cotts Agree To Minor League Deal
The Nationals have agreed to a minor league contract with left-handed reliever Neal Cotts, tweets Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports that the veteran 36-year-old (37 in March) will receive an invite to Major League Spring Training. Cotts is represented by Pro Star Management.
Cotts didn’t pitch in the Majors last season and had a three-year layoff from MLB action from 2010-12, but he pitched very well for three teams in the interim. From 2013-15, Cotts tallied 187 innings out of the bullpen for the Rangers, Brewers and Twins, posting a collective 3.03 ERA with 186 strikeouts against 57 unintentional walks. As one might expect, he was most effective against left-handed batters in that time, limiting same-handed opponents to a .212/.278/.356 batting line in 317 plate appearances. However, Cotts also held his own against righties, limiting even those with the platoon advantage to a reasonable .236/.313/.371 slash in 461 plate appearances.
The 2016 season saw Cotts sign a slew of minor league deals, but he never made it back to the Majors despite solid results at the Triple-A level. Cotts totaled 44 2/3 innings of work between the Triple-A affiliates for the Rangers, Yankees and Angels last year, registering a 3.83 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 while limiting left-handed opponents to a .220/.277/.322 batting line in 66 plate appearances. With the Nationals, he’ll compete for a bullpen job in Spring Training, although left-handed relief isn’t a massive need for Washington. The Nats have both Sammy Solis and Oliver Perez as southpaws in the big league bullpen, with Matt Grace serving as another option on the 40-man roster.
Mariners Avoid Arbitration With Jean Segura
The Mariners have agreed to a $6.2MM salary to avoid arbitration with newly acquired shortstop Jean Segura, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). On the heels of his big 2016 season, Segura will earn $6.2MM.
That’s a healthy payday for the 26-year-old, who Seattle acquired in a significant trade earlier this winter. But it falls well shy of the $7.3MM projected by MLBTR’s arbitration model. Segura earned $2.6MM in 2016, his first year of arb eligibility.
Matt Swartz, who developed that model, had broken down Segura’s case before the news of the agreement came through (and before we had a chance to publish that analysis). It was difficult to value the infielder precisely, he notes, due to a lack of reasonably comparable players, though Segura’s projected salary seemed a bit lofty.
Arbitration pays best for counting statistics, and Segura fared quite well in that regard in 2016. He not only took 694 trips to the plate, but swatted twenty home runs and swiped 39 stolen bases in that span, while posting a .319 batting average and driving in 64 runs.
Recent middle-infield comps, such as Daniel Murphy and Ian Desmond, weren’t nearly as productive, so their respective ~$2.7MM raises seemed like floors. The most direct comp, perhaps, came from center fielder Lorenzo Cain, whose salary jumped by $3.78MM after he posted a .307 batting average with 16 home runs and 28 stolen bases in 2015. Swartz viewed that figure as something of a low-end estimate for Segura, given his bigger numbers.
As it turns out, though, Segura will fall just shy of Cain with a $3.6MM raise. Of course, negotiation and risk tolerance play a major role in the arbitration process, and it’s difficult to judge the matter without full knowledge of all the considerations.
Regardless, Seattle will be pleased to have Segura at this general price point. The team gave up two talented young players in Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte to add his two years of control (along with Mitch Haniger and Zac Curtis), so the team surely has high expectations as the 2017 season draws near.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Dodgers To Sign Jose Miguel Fernandez
The Dodgers and Cuban second baseman Jose Miguel Fernandez have reportedly struck agreement on a minor league contract. He is set to receive a $200K signing bonus. Fernandez is exempt from international bonus pools due to his age and experience in Cuba’s Serie Nacional.
Fernandez left Cuba in December 2015, with Major League Baseball officially granting his free agency last April. He drew wide attention from scouts and evaluators during multiple showcases last year, with the Padres long thought to be one of the favorites to sign the 28-year-old and the Athletics also reportedly showing strong interest. Instead, it seems as if Fernandez will become the latest in a long line of Cuban talents to suit up in Dodger blue.
Back in April 2015, Baseball America’s Ben Badler ranked Fernandez as the third-best player in Cuba, with Badler praising the left-handed hitter’s approach at the plate, contact skills and plate discipline. Fernandez has slashed .319/.403/.423 over 2580 career plate appearances in the Serie Nacional, recording 263 walks against just 113 strikeouts. Badler felt Fernandez was only an “adequate” fielder at second base and graded his power and baserunning as below average, though overall, Fernandez was thought to be a player capable of more or less stepping right into the major leagues.
Thanks to a previous failed attempt to defect, however, Fernandez hasn’t played since 2014, so he’ll certainly need some time in the minors to get back into proper game shape. If he is able to regain his old form and stick at his old position — Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register notes that Fernandez has been mostly playing third base in winter ball action — he stands out as an intriguing possibility for the Dodgers’ wide-open second base spot.
With Micah Johnson designated for assignment recently, it seems at present that Enrique Hernandez, Charlie Culberson and Chris Taylor are the incumbent candidates on the Dodgers’ roster. Jack of all trades Austin Barnes might also factor in the mix. Helping Fernandez’s cause, perhaps, is the fact that all of those players — excepting Johnson, who’s in DFA limbo — hit from the right side.
Of course, the Dodgers could still look outside the organization. Though L.A. has been widely linked to Brian Dozier in trade rumors, those talks seem to have cooled of late. The Dodgers have also explored trades for players like the Rays’ Logan Forsythe and the Tigers’ Ian Kinsler, while Chase Utley is still available as a possible fallback option if a bigger-name upgrade can’t be acquired.
MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez first said a deal was close (via Twitter). Ben Badler of Baseball America reported the terms. Jon Heyman of Fan Rag said the agreement was finalized (via Twitter).
Photo courtesy of Alyson Boyer Rode.
Pirates Avoid Arbitration With Drew Hutchison, Jared Hughes
9:04pm: The Bucs have also knocked out their case with fellow righty Jared Hughes, Heyman adds on Twitter. He secures a $2.825MM deal that lands over his $2.5MM projection. The 31-year-old, eligible for the second time, didn’t quite maintain his output from his prior two seasons but ended the 2016 season with a strong 3.03 ERA over 59 1/3 innings with 5.2 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 to go with a 57.9% groundball rate.
7:47pm: The Pirates have avoided arbitration with righty Drew Hutchison, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. He’s set to earn $2.3MM.
That figure comes in just over the $2.2MM salary that MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected Hutchison to take down in his second season of arbitration eligibility. Though Hutchison went through the process last year with the Blue Jays, earning $2.2MM, he did not accrue enough service time to pass four total years of MLB service, so he’ll earn only a nominal raise and remain controllable through 2019.
Pittsburgh acquired Hutchison last summer in the trade-deadline deal that sent Francisco Liriano and prospects to Toronto. Hutchison ended up throwing just 24 major league frames in 2016, working to a 5.25 ERA. Though he posted a 22:7 K/BB ratio, he was also tagged for six home runs. Hutchison spent much of the year at the Triple-A level, where he recorded a 3.59 ERA across 138 innings with 9.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.
Arbitration Breakdown: Zach Britton
Over the last few days, I have been discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2017 projections are available right here.
Zach Britton had a phenomenal 2016 campaign for the Orioles, logging 47 saves and a 0.54 ERA over 67 innings while striking out 74 batters. As a result, the dominant sinkerballer is projected for a $4.65MM raise, from $6.75MM to $11.4MM. It is rare to find a season as dominant as Britton’s 2016, so it is not surprising that he is projected to get a raise bigger than Mark Melancon’s record $4.25MM raise last year for a third-time-eligible reliever.
Melancon saved 51 games in his platform season, four more than Britton, but his 2.23 ERA is far less impressive than Britton’s 0.54. His 62 punchouts also fell shy of Britton’s 74. Therefore, his $4.25MM raise is a plausible floor for Britton already. Britton besting this by $400K, as the model expects, seems reasonable.
Jim Johnson in 2013 got a $3.88MM raise, the second highest for a third time eligible reliever behind Melancon. He had 51 saves and a 2.49 ERA, so he also meets the criteria of logging a few more saves than Britton while posting a decidedly worse ERA.
However, since Melancon did save four more games, it is worth looking to see if guys with low ERAs but slightly fewer saves did any worse than Melancon did. Looking for guys with ERAs under 2 that were closers, no names emerge in the last five years other than Aroldis Chapman, who had 33 saves and a 1.63 ERA, but only got a $3.27MM raise. Clearly, every aspect of Britton’s case is much stronger than was Chapman’s, so this is not too concerning.
Heath Bell in 2011 is probably a stale comparable, although he did have a sub-2 ERA (he posted a 1.93 ERA) and he matched Britton’s 47 saves exactly. His $3.5MM raise would almost certainly be a floor for Britton as well.
Putting it all together, there is little reason to use any comparable other than Melancon here. All other potential third-time eligible relievers got smaller raises and had worse performances. Britton should easily clear Melancon’s $4.25MM number, and the model’s $4.65MM projected raise seems as reasonable as anything. Because Baltimore is now moving to a “file-and-trial” approach, though, the stakes are raised as the sides try to work out an agreement on the heels of Britton’s historic season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Mets, Orioles To Employ “File-And-Trial” Arbitration Approach
The Mets and Orioles will adopt a “file-and-trial” approach to their arbitration-eligible players this year, as Marc Carig of Newsday (via Twitter) and Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun (also on Twitter) report. That means that the organizations will only negotiate with players up until tomorrow’s 1pm EST deadline to exchange filing figures; if no deal is found with a given player, they’ll take the case to arbitration.
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained the “file-and-trial” stance a few years back. Some organizations adopt it as a blanket rule, with at least some of those willing to make exceptions only in cases of multi-year arrangements. Others will utilize it on a case-by-case basis, notifying certain players of that intention in the course of negotiations.
It’s always tough to keep tabs on precisely which teams utilize this strategy, and it can certainly change — especially with front office turnover. At last check, though, file-and-trial teams include the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Marlins, Rays, and White Sox. And there are at least five others that seem to take that approach with some players: the Brewers, Indians, Nationals, Pirates, and Reds.
By adopting this approach, the New York and Baltimore organizations have turned up the heat on their final talks with arb-eligible players. As things stand, the O’s have yet to reach terms with a variety of notable players, led by Zach Britton, Manny Machado, Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, and Jonathan Schoop. The club also has to work out salaries with Brad Brach and Caleb Joseph. It’s not an easy season for the Mets, either; they have yet to settle with Addison Reed, Jeurys Familia, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Wilmer Flores, Travis d’Arnaud, and Josh Edgin.
As always, you can view MLBTR’s arbitration projects right here, and track the players who have and haven’t agreed to terms with our arbitration tracker.
Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Ryan Flaherty, T.J. McFarland
7:41pm: Righty T.J. McFarland has also agreed to terms, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. He’ll earn $685K in 2017, just shy of his $700K projection.
6:35pm: The Orioles have avoided arbitration with infielder Ryan Flaherty, according to Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com (via Twitter). He’ll earn $1.8MM and become the first arb-eligible Oriole to settle this year.
Flaherty will take home just a shade more than the $1.7MM that MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected. The 30-year-old made just 176 MLB plate appearances in 2016 and managed only three home runs, limiting his earning power in his final run through arbitration.
Of course, Baltimore values Flaherty primarily as a versatile bench piece. He’s capable of playing all over the infield, including shortstop when necessary. And though he has never produced much at the plate, Flaherty has typically rated well as a baserunner.