Dodgers, Justin Turner Progressing Toward Four-Year Deal
3:10pm: FOX’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that the deal will be for $64MM when it is ultimately completed.
12:06pm: Sherman reports that the two sides have been discussing a contract in the vicinity of $64MM in total, though there could be a higher guarantee and some deferrals as well (Twitter links). The Rebel Media’s Chris Camello first tweeted yesterday that the two sides were getting close to a deal in the four-year, $65MM range.
10:41am: Heyman tweets that the Dodgers currently have an offer on the table to Turner and are awaiting his decision. ESPN’s Jim Bowden tweets that both the Dodgers and Turner’s representatives at the Legacy Agency say there’s no agreement just yet, though both are hopeful.
10:24am: The Dodgers and Turner are progressing toward an agreement, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). If an agreement is reached, it’ll “likely” be for four years, tweets FanRag’s Jon Heyman.
7:35am: The Dodgers are becoming more confident that they can re-sign third baseman Justin Turner, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (Twitter links). The two sides have been in talks on a four-year contract recently, Olney adds.
Turner, who turned 32 three weeks ago, has been one of the Dodgers’ top offseason priorities. He’s fresh off a brilliant season that saw him bat .275/.339/.493 with 27 homers, 34 doubles and outstanding defense at the hot corner (+7 DRS, +14 UZR). That marked the third consecutive season of exceptional offensive production from Turner, who signed a minor league contract with Los Angeles in February 2014 after being non-tendered by the Mets and went on to break out in Chavez Ravine. In 386 games and 1383 plate appearances as a member of the Dodgers, Turner has slashed .296/.364/.492.
Bringing back the right-handed-hitting Turner would be a boost to a Dodgers team that ranked last in the Majors against left-handed pitching in 2016 in terms of on-base percentage, slugging percentage and wRC+. However, it should also be noted that Turner’s own uncharacteristic struggles against southpaws last year contributed heavily to L.A.’s woes against in that department. Turner hit .282/.359/.465 against left-handers in his first two seasons with the Dodgers but slumped to a .209/.303/.337 mark last year. His strikeout and walk rates against lefties remained encouraging, although he sported just a .230 average on balls in play against lefties, which obviously proved to be a significant detriment.
Jason Martinez of Roster Resource/MLBTR projects the Dodgers for a $204MM Opening Day payroll as it is, even without re-signing Turner, so adding him back into the mix would presumably push the team’s 2017 payroll north of $220MM (though the deal could of course be backloaded to some extent). That number would continue to rise if the team were to re-sign Kenley Jansen, another top target, or add an experienced arm to replace their closer in the event that Jansen signs elsewhere. The Dodgers will, at least, be free of their obligations to both Carl Crawford and Alex Guerrero next winter, which will result in about $28MM coming off their payroll. They’ll also be able to buy out Andre Ethier‘s $17.5MM mutual option. The following offseason will see Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-jin Ryu come off the books, creating plenty of opportunity for the Dodgers to shed some significant payroll and luxury tax considerations in the next two years.
Padres Agree To Deal With Right-Hander Michel Baez
The Padres have agreed to sign 20-year-old Cuban right-hander Michel Baez and will pay him a $3MM signing bonus, reports Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com (via Twitter). Because the Padres are already over their allotted international bonus pool, Baez will come with a 100 percent luxury tax and cost the team a total of $6MM.
Sanchez lists Baez as 6’8″ and 230 pounds, noting that he has a fastball which sits in the 93-97 mph range. Baez comes without much in the way of publicly available information, as he didn’t rate in MLB.com’s list of top 30 international prospects, nor did he appear among the 47 international prospects that were listed on Fangraphs’ sortable scouting board. Baseball America’s Ben Badler ranked 50 players when listing his top international prospects this year — though he didn’t list Cuban players that had not yet been declared for free agency — and didn’t mention Baez’s name, either. Per Baseball-Reference, Baez pitched in part of just one pro season in Cuba — the 2014-15 season — and posted a 5.22 ERA with 17 strikeouts against 17 walks as an 18-year-old. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets that he could start next season in A-ball and is a former teammate of fellow Padres signee Ronald Bolanos.
The lack of information on Baez is not to suggest that he’s lacking in any sort of appreciable talent. Players often fly under the radar and come with unexpectedly large signing bonuses when they do. A player of Baez’s age with that sort of frame and velocity certainly sounds appealing on the surface, though a great deal of additional context would be required before fairly assessing him. Regardless, Padres scouts are clearly enticed by Baez’s abilities, and the sum of the bonus itself seemingly indicates that San Diego faced some degree of competition for his services.
Dodgers Close To Deal With Kenley Jansen
The Dodgers are close to a deal to bring back closer Kenley Jansen, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). It would seem that Monday has the makings of a big day for the Dodgers and their fans, as multiple reports today have indicated that the Dodgers are also progressing toward a four-year deal to re-sign Justin Turner. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that Jansen’s deal is expected to be a five-year pact.
Los Angeles entered the offseason with a number of free agents coming off the books, but the three priorities for the team were long said to be Jansen, Turner and Rich Hill. If both the Turner and Jansen deals are completed, the Dodgers will have succeeded in bringing back their three top free agents, though, clearly there’ll still be some work to be done over the remainder of the winter. Notably, the club could look for upgrades at second base, in the corner outfield and in the bullpen (even after bringing back Jansen).
The 29-year-old Jansen pitched to a scintillating 1.83 ERA with 13.6 K/9, 1.4 BB/9 and a 30 percent ground-ball rate in 68 2/3 innings with the Dodgers last season. That performance led his first All-Star selection, although the very fact that it was just the first of his career is somewhat remarkable. Jansen has been one of baseball’s very best relievers since the moment he debuted as a 22-year-old in 2010, logging a career 2.20 ERA with 13.9 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 in 408 2/3 regular-season innings. He ranks fourth in strikeout percentage and third in total strikeouts among qualified relievers in that time, and only six relievers have mustered a better earned run average in that time frame.
In addition to the Dodgers, Jansen drew interest from the Yankees, Nationals and Marlins this winter, though the Yankees’ bid to land him likely ended when they inked Aroldis Chapman to a five-year, $86MM contract. While Miami’s emergence as a suitor for Jansen came as a surprise, their efforts to land a top closer appear to be legitimate; they reportedly offered Chapman $87MM over a five-year term, and Marlins skipper Don Mattingly has been said to be personally recruiting Jansen. Signing in Miami would’ve reunited Jansen with not only Mattingly but also former teammates Dee Gordon and A.J. Ellis (who agreed to a deal with Miami last week), but it appears that Jansen’s sights are set on remaining in Dodger blue.
It’ll be interesting to see if Jansen is able to top Chapman’s overall contract, which currently stands as the all-time record contract issued to a reliever. If he’s able to do so, he’ll join Chapman and Mark Melancon as the third reliever this year to set a new benchmark for largest contract ever, although there are other considerations at play as well. Notably, Chapman received an opt-out clause after the third year of his contract, and one would expect that Chapman’s representatives at Wasserman sought the same type of provision, which has become increasingly common throughout baseball contracts.
Rays Designate Justin O’Conner For Assignment
11:03am: Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the operations O’Conner have undergone this winter were to address disk issues in his lower back that impacted him during the regular season (Twitter links). He appears to be facing a lengthy recovery, as senior vice president Chaim Bloom told Topkin that the team is “a ways away from [O’Conner] being able to play,” adding that the 2017 season isn’t entirely lost. (The very fact that the entire season was even referenced as a possibility speaks to the nature of the rehab, however.) Per Topkin, the Rays could look to bring O’Conner back on a minor league deal if he clears outright waivers.
9:40am: The Rays announced on Monday that minor league catcher Justin O’Conner has been designated for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to Wilson Ramos, whose two-year deal with Tampa Bay is now official.
O’Conner, 25 in March, was drafted with the No. 31 overall pick by the Rays in 2010 and rated as one of the organization’s top 30 prospects (per Baseball America) each year since. Prior to the 2015 season, BA rated him as highly as No. 3 on Tampa Bay’s top 30, and MLB.com entered the season with O’Conner ranked 61st overall among MLB prospects that same season. That ranking came on the heels of a very solid .278/.316/.466 batting line compiled between Class-A Advanced and Double-A, but O’Conner limped to a .231/.255/.371 performance in 2015 — his first full season at Double-A.
Injuries have been an issue for O’Conner, though, and the Rays announced today that he’s undergone a pair of back surgeries after being limited to just 20 games in 2016. He also underwent a pair of hip surgeries early in his career, so durability concerns aren’t exactly a new phenomenon for O’Conner.
Last winter, O’Conner rated 13th among Rays farmhands, per BA, though their scouting reported questioned his ability to hit breaking pitches and changeups while also raising questions about his “decision-making on defense and aptitude for game management.” BA does note that he’s gotten 80 grades on his throwing arm — O’Conner has halted 46 percent of stolen bases attempted against him in his career — and has above-average raw power.
Rays Sign Wilson Ramos
Catching help has been a priority for the Rays all offseason, and on Monday they announced the signing of veteran Wilson Ramos to a two-year deal contract that will reportedly guarantee the Octagon client $12.5MM (with a $4MM salary in 2017 and $8.5MM payday in 2018). Ramos will also have the opportunity to earn another $5.75MM worth of incentives, making for a total possibility of $18.25MM.
Perhaps the most notable incentive is an escalator provision that could allow Ramos to boost his 2018 salary by $2MM, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. He’d need to make 55 starts at catcher and not end up on the DL due to another knee injury to earn that boost. Additionally, for the 2017 season, Ramos can earn $250K apiece upon his 60th, 65th, 70th, and 75th games started behind the plate. He’ll get $125K at 300 and 325 plate appearances, and $250K a pop at 350, and every 25 plate appearances thereafter up to 500. Ramos can also bump up his 2018 earnings by $250K each upon his 450th, 475th, and 500th trip to the plate.
[Related: Updated Tampa Bay Rays Depth Chart]
The 29-year-old Ramos appeared set to land a massive free agent payday before suffering horrendously timed ACL and meniscus tears with less than a week to go in the regular season. The recovery from the surgery to repair those injuries will almost certainly carry on into the 2017 season. Ramos is now reportedly hopeful he can return to action in April or May, although it’s certainly possible that his absence could linger into the summer. (The Rays expect him to arrive in June or July, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets.)
Before all that, Ramos hit .307/.354/.496 in 523 plate appearances in a breakout 2016 season with the Nationals. That performance won him his first Silver Slugger and All-Star berths, and catapulted him to a 3.5 fWAR season. He also has a reputation for solid, if unspectacular, defense behind the plate. StatCorner rates him as a slightly below-average pitch framer.
Whether he can produce anywhere near that well in 2017 or 2018 remains to be seen. As long as he can be healthy, though, he should be a significant upgrade for the Rays, who had Luke Maile and Curt Casali atop their depth chart at catcher. Given his injury, though, the Rays could also use Ramos at DH, particularly in 2017. The Nationals did not extend Ramos a qualifying offer, so the Rays will not have to sacrifice a draft pick as a result of the signing.
The relatively short duration of the deal will allow Ramos to hit the free agent market again at age 31, still a reasonable age for a catcher to land a significant contract. He will be able to rehab his knee injury without stress, while having enough time to reemerge as an elite catcher at some point during the course of the deal. Ramos declined a three-year, $30MM-plus extension offer from the Nationals in August, before his injury. (After the offseason began, the Nats quickly changed directions, dealing for Derek Norris to start for them at catcher.) Ramos’ current health issues and new contract are riskier for him, but if all goes well and he earns most or all of his incentives, he could conceivably make more than $30MM in the next three seasons anyway. Still, his $12.5MM guarantee seems modest for a player who would have been by far the best catcher available this offseason, had he been healthy.
Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post first reported that the two sides were meeting and that there was serious interest on Tampa Bay’s behalf (Twitter link). Joel Sherman of the New York Post first tweeted word of the agreement between the two sides. FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweeted the financial details.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Quick Hits: Lagares, Giants, Lopez, Romo, Holland, Cole
No-trade protection (whether in the form of contract clauses or 10-and-5 rights) have long been a factor in deal-making. MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince chronicles some famous instances throughout baseball history of players blocking trades, and some current players mentioned on the rumor mill whose ability to be moved is complicated by their own full or partial no-trade clauses. Here’s more from around baseball…
- Mets center fielder Juan Lagares suffered an injury while making a diving catch for his Dominican winter league team, ESPN’s Adam Rubin reports. X-rays were negative, though Lagares will return to New York to be examined by team doctors. Lagares has himself received some trade attention this offseason but New York wants to keep the slick-fielding but light-hitting outfielder in a backup role.
- It doesn’t look like the Giants will be re-signing free agents Gregor Blanco, Santiago Casilla, Javier Lopez, Angel Pagan, Jake Peavy or Sergio Romo, CSNBayArea.com’s Alex Pavlovic writes. Romo has received “at least a couple of offers” from other clubs, according to Giants sources. Lopez is likely to retire unless he gets “a great offer” from an East Coast team so he can stay close to his home in Georgia.
- GM David Stearns declined to say whether or not the Brewers were one of the teams Greg Holland personally met with at the Winter Meetings, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy reports. The Brewers did scout Holland’s showcase last month, however, so the Crew can be added to the long list of teams that have some degree of interest in Holland after his return from Tommy John surgery. The Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, Giants, Red Sox, Indians, Rays, Mariners, Nationals, Padres, Twins, Mets, Phillies, Tigers, Blue Jays and Royals are all known to have sent scouts to the showcase or have other been linked to Holland this winter.
- Gerrit Cole tells MLB.com’s Adam Berry that he has yet to talk to the Pirates about his 2017 contract. MLB Trade Rumors projects Cole to earn $4.2MM in his first time through the arbitration process following a season that saw him post a 3.88 ERA, 2.72 K/BB rate and 7.6 K/9 over 116 innings. While the numbers are solid, they were also Cole’s worst in his four big league seasons, as he suffered through an injury-plagued year. This performance dip and rather checkered health history could be reasons why the Pirates aren’t planning to discuss an extension with Cole and agent Scott Boras over the winter, though Cole said he is healthy and will begin his offseason throwing program on Monday.
AL Notes: Bautista, Saunders, Holliday, Lewis, Angels
Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins and Jay Alou (Jose Bautista‘s agent) have remained in contact since speaking on the final day of the Winter Meetings, FOX Sports’ Jon Paul Morosi tweets. It seemed like the door was more or less closed on a reunion between the two sides, though the fact that talks re-opened during the Meetings and have apparently continued represents notable progress. If the qualifying offer and accompanying draft pick compensation has indeed been hampering Bautista’s market, re-signing with the Jays would seem like a logical avenue for Bautista. From Toronto’s perspective, the team would have to see enough value in bringing Bautista back into the fold that it would be willing to pass on the first-round compensation pick the Jays would receive if Bautista signed elsewhere.
Here’s more from around the American League….
- We’ve already heard about the Indians‘ one-year offer to Mike Napoli, though earlier this week, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reported (Twitter link) that the Tribe also offered one-year contracts to Matt Holliday and Michael Saunders. Holliday was known to be a Cleveland target and he ended up signing a one-year, $13MM deal with the Yankees. The Blue Jays and Orioles have shown interest in Saunders but the winter rumor mill has otherwise been pretty quiet for the Canadian outfielder. Saunders hit .253/.338/.478 with 24 homers over 558 PA for Toronto last season, though his production badly declined after the All-Star break. The Tribe already has several left-handed hitting or switch-hitting corner outfield options, though Saunders could play in the field or perhaps get some DH time when Carlos Santana is at first base, given Saunders’ poor fielding metrics last season.
- The Rangers continue to have interest in a reunion with Colby Lewis, though there doesn’t appear much has changed between the two sides, GM Jon Daniels tells MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan. “There is always going to be interest in Colby. There is no doubt about the man. No question there. There’s not much I can say that hasn’t already been said. It’s more dollars and what the opportunity there is,” Daniels said.
- After a dire 2016 season, the Angels are already looking in better shape for next year, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal writes. The acquisitions of Cameron Maybin and Danny Espinosa fill two big lineup holes for the Halos, and they’ve added pitching depth to bounce back from the rotation’s injury-plagued season. In Rosenthal’s view, the Angels could be a .500 team with better health and better luck, though making the postseason is still unlikely at this point.
Astros Interested In Danny Duffy, Yordano Ventura
Royals starters Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura are two of the pitchers on the Astros’ list of rotation targets, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart reports. The two K.C. arms join several other previously-known names (i.e. Jose Quintana, Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi and other Tampa Bay’s starters) as potential trade fits for a Houston team looking to upgrade its starting pitching.
Kansas City is known to be open to dealing notable players in order to cut short-term payroll, and the Royals have already made one big move in this regard by dealing Wade Davis to the Cubs for Jorge Soler. Even with Davis gone, however, the Royals have several more possible trade chips who are only controllable over the next one or two seasons before hitting free agency.
Duffy fits into that category, as MLBTR projects the southpaw to earn $8.2MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency after the 2017 season. K.C. began preliminary extension talks with Duffy earlier this winter but were also gauging interest in his services during the Winter Meetings. Duffy, who turns 28 late this month, posted a 3.51 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and 4.48 K/BB rate over 179 2/3 innings for Kansas City last year, finally solidifying himself as a member of the rotation after being used as a part-time reliever in the previous two seasons and at the start of 2016.
While Duffy would be a one-year rental, Ventura is locked up through at least 2019 due to a contract extension that includes club options for both 2020 and 2021. Ventura is guaranteed $20.25MM through 2019 and, if both options are exercised, Ventura’s deal would cost $43.25MM over the five seasons. Even if Ventura merely continues to post numbers akin to his only-okay 2016 season (4.45 ERA, 50.2% grounder rate, 6.97 K/9, 1.85 K/BB rate over 186 innings), that deal is still very good value given the rising costs of starting pitching, and it could become a major bargain should Ventura take a step forward in performance.
Ventura has been the subject of controversy due to reported maturity issues and his two suspensions for throwing at batters, though the Royals denied reports that they were shopping the righty last summer. One would think that given Ventura’s age (25) and reasonable contract, the Royals would see him as a long-term building block rather than as a trade chip. Their willingness to least listen to other clubs’ offers could be due to doubts about his personality, or it could just be due diligence, as Ventura’s years of control could net K.C. a nice return in a trade.
The Astros have a deep minor league system that could satisfy the Royals or other teams looking for young talent, and Houston could also offer starting pitching of its own in the form of Collin McHugh or Mike Fiers. Since the Royals plan to contend next season, they could fit as a team that would take on a solid rotation piece like McHugh or Fiers rather than just prospects in exchange for a pitcher; the Davis trade, for instance, netted the Royals a player in Soler who they expect to contribute immediately.
Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, McHugh, Fiers and the newly-signed Charlie Morton project as Houston’s rotation. It’s an unspectacular but solid rotation, and one that could look better on paper if Keuchel returns to his Cy Young Award form of 2015.
Bullpen Notes: Nationals, Miller, Marlins
Some items on the always-busy relief pitching market…
- The Nationals explored acquiring Andrew Miller at last July’s trade deadline, though balked at the idea of moving Lucas Giolito and other prospects for the ace reliever, ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian recently noted (as cited by ESPN.com’s Buster Olney in his latest subscriber-only column). Trading for Miller would’ve solved Washington’s search for a long-term closer, and the Nats ended up moving Giolito anyway at the Winter Meetings to obtain Adam Eaton “in a market saturated with outfield options.” This decision presents an interesting what-if for Nats fans, though the answer could simply come down to the fact that the Nationals no longer valued Giolito as highly. “Their view of Giolito obviously changed completely. Whatever it was, they were working to move him,” an evaluator tells Olney.
- Speaking of Miller, this offseason’s skyrocketing relief prices have made the Indians lefty a bargain for the team, Zack Meisel of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes. Miller is owed $9MM in each of the next two seasons, a fraction of what he would earn if he was on the open market this winter.
- Brad Ziegler and Neftali Feliz have been mentioned as potential Marlins backup plans if they can’t sign Kenley Jansen, and MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro also adds Fernando Salas and Junichi Tazawa to the team’s list of possible candidates. Overall, the Fish would be looking to add relievers with closing experience, though A.J. Ramos would likely remain Miami’s closer.
Gammons On The Red Sox: Bautista, Swihart, Benintendi, Starters
Peter Gammons (in his latest piece for his GammonsDaily.com website) looks back at five of the major storylines coming out of the Winter Meetings, including prices in the reliever market, teams dealing prospects and how the Red Sox have established a clear window to aim for at least one World Series title between now and the end of the decade. Gammons also includes a few hot stove tidbits about the Sox…
- Free agent slugger Jose Bautista “wanted to work something out” with the Red Sox but president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told Bautista’s agent that the Sox were out of payroll space. Boston has over $178.3MM committed to just 10 players on the 2017 roster, plus Rusney Castillo and Allen Craig. Adding Bautista on a notable salary would again put the Sox over the luxury tax threshold, putting the team in line for a sizeable penalty.
- Dombrowski “refused to talk about” Blake Swihart with several teams that were interested in the former top prospect. Swihart is coming off a tough 2016 campaign that included a demotion to Triple-A, a position switch from catcher to left field due to defensive issues and a severe ankle injury that ended his season in June. Still, since Swihart is just 24 and less than two years removed from being a consensus top-20 prospect in the game, it isn’t shocking that teams were looking to buy low, nor is it a surprise that Dombrowski wants to keep him in the fold.
- We’ve already heard about how the White Sox wanted Rafael Devers as part of the Chris Sale trade, and Gammons reports that Chicago also had interest in Andrew Benintendi as the deal’s starting point but Boston refused. Benintendi, another highly-touted prospect, made a strong MLB debut in 2016 and looks to start next year as the Red Sox starting left fielder.
- The Sale trade gives the Red Sox a rotation surplus, and the club isn’t likely to really explore dealing a starter until Spring Training, when the Sox have a better idea of what to expect from question marks like Swihart, Pablo Sandoval, Christian Vazquez or Sam Travis. Gammons also notes that the Sox could simply hang onto all of their starting pitching options as extra depth against the injuries that will almost inevitably occur during a season.