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Rakuten Eagles Sign Spencer Howard, Miguel Yajure

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The Rakuten Eagles of Nippon Professional Baseball have signed right-handed pitchers Spencer Howard and Miguel Yajure, the team announced. Both pitchers will presumably join the Eagles starting rotation. The 2025 season will be Howard’s first in NPB and Yajure’s second.

Howard, 28, was once a promising prospect in the Phillies organization but struggled to translate his minor league skills to the major league level. Over parts of five seasons with the Phillies, Rangers, Giants, and Guardians, he put up a 7.00 ERA in 144 innings of work. His underlying numbers, including a 4.77 SIERA, are better than his unsightly ERA, but no matter what statistics you look at, it’s clear Howard could not reliably retire MLB hitters. He has also struggled in the minors in recent years, putting up a 7.07 ERA and 6.20 FIP in 70 innings at Triple-A from 2022-24. Thus, the righty will look for a fresh start with the Eagles in 2025.

Yajure, 27 in May, made his MLB debut for the Yankees during the 2020 season. Over the next three years, he pitched 46 1/3 innings for the Yankees and Pirates, putting up a 7.58 ERA – even higher than Howard’s. His 5.37 SIERA was similarly poor, as was his low strikeout rate and high walk rate. If you include hit-by-pitches, he issued nearly as many free passes (32) as strikeouts (35). So, he set out in hopes of finding greener pastures across the pond last winter. Indeed, that’s exactly what he found. Yajure signed a one-year contract with the Yakult Swallows ahead of the 2024 season. With the Swallows, he pitched to a 3.34 ERA over 129 1/3 innings. A mid-3.00s ERA in NPB isn’t quite as impressive as it would be in MLB, but Yajure was a solid contributor for the Swallows, finishing second on the team in innings pitched. It was enough to convince the Eagles to give him a contract for 2025. He’ll look to build upon a solid first season in his sophomore NPB campaign.

Rangers Interested In Max Fried, A.J. Minter, Jonathan Loáisiga

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As the Rangers look to replace the many arms they lost to free agency this winter, three more targets have emerged: left-handed starter Max Fried, left-handed reliever A.J. Minter, and right-handed reliever Jonathan Loáisiga.

The news that Texas is interested in Fried comes from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon. They confirm that re-signing Nathan Eovaldi remains the team’s primary goal but suggest the Rangers are considering Fried as one potential alternative. However, their interest seems to be casual, at least for now. After Corbin Burnes, Fried is arguably the top starting pitcher available in free agency. That means he’s going to command significantly more money than Eovaldi. Entering the offseason, the MLBTR staff predicted Fried would sign a six-year, $156MM deal; Eovaldi’s predicted contract was a two-year, $44MM pact. Thus, as the Rangers look to duck under the luxury tax threshold and continue to deal with TV revenue uncertainty, financial constraints could prevent them from signing any star free agents. In other words, it seems like the Rangers are keeping tabs on Fried, but a deal remains unlikely.

The bullpen is perhaps a bigger area of concern for Texas. The only four pitchers who threw more than 50 innings out of the Rangers bullpen in 2024 are all free agents: Kirby Yates, David Robertson, José Leclerc, and José Ureña. What’s more Josh Sborz is going to miss significant time again after undergoing shoulder surgery. President of baseball operations Chris Young has already made a couple of small additions, claiming Roansy Contreras off of waivers from the Angels and signing Luis Curvelo to a major league deal, but neither is the type of proven, high-leverage arm the Rangers desperately need. Ideally, the Rangers would be in the market for a bona fide closer like Tanner Scott or an All-Star talent like Jeff Hoffman. However, a lack of payroll flexibility could explain why they’re targeting a pair of bounce-back candidates instead.

Over the past five seasons, Minter has pitched to a 2.85 ERA and 3.04 SIERA in 243 innings of work for the Braves. While he only has 36 career saves, the southpaw has experience pitching late in games. He also has several years of playoff experience. In 25 postseason frames, he has a 2.88 ERA and 2.63 SIERA. The reason for hesitation when it comes to Minter, is that he spent two long stints on the injured list nursing a hip injury this past season. He ultimately needed surgery, and it’s not yet clear how soon he’ll be able to return. That said, a hip injury is far less worrisome than an arm-related issue, and Minter was highly durable from 2020-23. Only three relievers made more appearances in that time. Thus, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that Minter is among the “most popular” left-handed relievers on the free agent market, linking him to the Braves, Cubs, and Rangers. He was also linked to the Blue Jays earlier this offseason.

Loáisiga has not been nearly as durable as Minter throughout his career, but the upside is appealing. He was one of the top relievers in the game in 2021, putting up a 2.17 ERA and 3.01 SIERA in 70 2/3 innings for the Yankees. Unfortunately, various arm injuries have gotten in his way ever since. He dealt with shoulder inflammation in 2022, bone spurs in his elbow in 2023, and, most recently, he underwent an internal brace procedure in April 2024. The rehab timeline for an internal brace procedure is typically 10-12 months, which means Loáisiga could be back to full strength in time for Opening Day. That being the case, it’s not hard to see why he has so many suitors, including the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, and now, according to Jorge Castillo of ESPN, the Padres and Rangers. While it’s been a long time since Loáisiga was a reliable big league reliever, it’s easy to dream about the upside of his 98 mph sinker and lethal curveball. So, it comes as little surprise that he is expected to sign a major league deal this winter (per Castillo).

Red Sox Interested In Walker Buehler

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The Red Sox are known to be looking for starting pitching, with chief baseball officer Craig Breslow having said that he wants to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. They have been connected to marquee free agents like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried as well as notable trade candidates like Garrett Crochet, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe reports that Walker Buehler is another free agent they have interest in.

Whether Buehler would count as raising the ceiling would be a matter of debate at this point, as it’s been a few years since he was at his best over a meaningful stretch of time. From 2018 to 2021, he tossed 564 innings for the Dodgers, allowing 2.82 earned runs per nine. He combined a 27.7% strikeout rate with a 6.1% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. He also posted good results in 15 postseason starts for the Dodgers in that time.

But in 2022, he had an ERA of 4.02 before requiring Tommy John surgery, the second of his career. He missed the entire 2023 campaign and didn’t immediately bounce back this year. He only made 16 starts in 2024 and had rough results, most prominently a 5.38 ERA. His 18.6% strikeout rate was below league average and also far from his previous form.

He did finish things on a positive note, in a very small sample but on a very big stage. After getting lit up by the Padres in the NLDS, he went on to throw ten shutout innings over his final three appearances of the Dodgers’ World Series run. That included four shutty against the Mets in the NLCS, a five-inning start against the Yankees in the third game of the World Series, followed by the final three outs in game five.

Going into 2025, Buehler is an interesting risk/reward play. His previous upside is tantalizing but he’s been hurt or middling for the past few years. He did have that strong finish in the playoffs but most modern front offices won’t be swayed by such a small sample, even it was under the brightest lights in baseball.

That uncertainty means that Buehler could likely be had for a relatively low price, which could either turn into a bargain or a waste. The Dodgers declined to issue Buehler a $21.05MM qualifying offer at season’s end, evidently not valuing him worth that price point. At the start of the winter, MLBTR predicted Buehler for a one-year deal with a $15MM, though the market for pitching has been stronger than expected, with mid-rotation or back-end guys like Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and Clay Holmes outearning their projections so far.

Despite the recent results, Buehler has proven to be quite popular this winter, having already drawn the interest of Atlanta, the A’s, Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Tigers and now Red Sox. For Boston, they tried a buy-low move last year which hasn’t worked out so far. After a few rough years, they gave Lucas Giolito a fairly modest $38.5MM guarantee on a two-year deal but elbow surgery wiped out his 2024 season.

The injury is not really the fault of the Boston front office but Giolito was a risky choice even before that and it was generally expected they would target more surefire rotation upgrades this time around. The club’s decision makers have talked about being aggressive this winter and putting together a club capable of winning the division, even if that means paying the competitive balance tax.

RosterResource pegs the club’s CBT number at $181MM right now, about $60MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. That means they have plenty of room to go after top free agents like Burnes and Fried, but they are also at least considering a more modest strike for someone like Buehler, or perhaps a combination of the two.

The rotation currently projects to include Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello, with openings at the back. Giolito will be expected back at some point, though likely not at the start of the season. Guys like Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell and Quinn Priester are on the roster but fairly unestablished and still optionable. Alongside Buehler, the Sox could consider other mid-rotation or back-end free agents such as Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Jeff Hoffman, Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and others.

Shinnosuke Ogasawara Officially Posted For MLB Clubs

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Left-hander Shinnosuke Ogasawara has been officially posted by the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, per reporter Francys Romero (X link). That opens up a 45-day window for his representatives at William Morris Endeavor to negotiate with major league clubs. If no deal is reached in that time, the southpaw will return to the Dragons for 2025.

It was reported back in October that the Dragons would make Ogasawara available via the posting system and that has now been rubber-stamped. The 30 MLB clubs can now officially speak to his representatives and see what sort of contract will be necessary to get him to put pen to paper.

While Ogasawara should generate interest, he’s clearly not exciting as Roki Sasaki, who has also been posted for clubs this offseason. However, Ogasawara likely has more earning power than Sasaki due to the binary nature of MLB international signing rules.

Players need to be 25 years old and have six seasons of experience in a foreign professional league in order to be considered “professionals” and have the right to freely negotiate a contract of any size and length. Players who don’t meet those criteria are considered “amateurs” and are therefore subject to the international bonus pool system, where each club gets $5-8MM annually to spend on such players. Sasaki is only 23 years old and will therefore be limited to a minor league deal with a signing bonus of a few million bucks. Ogasawara, on the other hand, is 27 years old and has appeared in parts of 9 NPB seasons. That means he has the freedom to fully assess his earning power and market himself to the highest bidder.

How much interest North American clubs will have in him is unknown. Ogasawara has had some success, but not as much as some other pitchers that have recently come over like Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Shota Imanaga. He has thrown 951 1/3 innings over his NPB career,  though striking out just 18.9% of batters faced. For context, MLB average is usually in the 22-23% range these days. He did get his strikeout rate up to 24% in 2022 but it dropped to 20.1% last year and then all the way to 13.6% in 2024.

The lack of punchouts hasn’t stopped him from succeeding in Japan, as he has a 3.62 earned run average over his career and had a 3.12 ERA in the season that just finished, though MLB clubs might wonder if the same pitch-to-contact approach could carry over to North American ball.

Ogasawara is also on the smaller side for a starting pitcher, listed at 5’11” and 183 pounds. That’s actually slightly larger than the 5’10” and 175 pounds listed for Imanaga, so it’s not a total disqualification, but Imanaga managed to strike out 25% of batters faced in his NPB career.

Though even if Ogasawara is a notch below Imanaga, he could still generate interest. Youth is clearly an attractive quality which is why guys like Yamamoto, Jung Hoo Lee and Juan Soto have been paid so well, so the fact that Ogasawara just turned 27 in October will work in his favor. The recent downturn in strikeouts is a bit concerning but he also lowered his walk rate to a tiny 3.7% rate in 2024 and the ERA was still good.

It’s difficult to forecast a contract for a player coming from another league like Ogasawara but MLBTR predicted after the start of the offseason that he could land a two-year, $12MM deal. Perhaps he could benefit from the fact that the market for mid-rotation starters has been quite strong so far this winter. Each of Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and Clay Holmes have earned larger guaranteed than projected in recent weeks, which could perhaps trickle down to Ogasawara.

The lefty and his team will have more than a month to feel out the market and gauge interest. For clubs still looking to add in the rotation but who don’t want to pay for top names like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried or Jack Flaherty, Ogasawara will be part of a mid-rotation or back-end group that still includes Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Jeff Hoffman, Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and others.

Dodgers Sign Michael Conforto

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December 10: The Dodgers officially announced Conforto’s signing today.

December 8: The Dodgers signed a left-handed hitting outfielder represented by Scott Boras tonight.  No, not that one.  Shortly before the Mets signed Juan Soto to a seismic contract, the Dodgers agreed to a deal with Michael Conforto, per a report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Conforto’s deal with L.A. is a one-year pact worth $17MM, according to ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez. Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times reports the deal includes deferred money and an $8.5MM signing bonus.

Conforto, 32 in March, was selected by the Mets tenth overall in the 2014 draft and emerged as an impact bat for the club early in his career. In his first six seasons as a big leaguer, Conforto slashed an incredible .259/.358/.484 with a wRC+ of 128. Conforto made an All-Star appearance, slugged 118 homers in 632 games, and established himself as one of the best young offensive players in the NL.

Unfortunately, however, Conforto was dogged by shoulder issues early in his career that came to a head following a down 2021 season (104 wRC+). Conforto declined the Qualifying Offer and entered free agency in line for a solid payday, but required surgery during the 2021-22 lockout and ultimately did not sign a contract for the 2022 season while he recuperated.

Despite missing the entire 2022 season, Conforto inked a strong two-year, $36MM deal with the Giants, one of eight contracts by former GM Farhan Zaidi that included an opt-out.  After posting a league average 99 wRC+ in his first year with the Giants, Conforto chose not to opt out of the $18MM he was owed for 2024.

Conforto improved to a 112 wRC+ in 2024, including a 137 surge over the season’s final two months.  He showed a reverse platoon split, beating up on lefties more so than righties.  He also managed a 133 wRC+ away from Oracle Park, a place known to suppress offense.

Over the two years Conforto has been a Giant, Oracle Park has been the second-worst park in baseball for offense, ahead of only T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Dodger Stadium, meanwhile, is right around league average as the 17th best park in the majors for offense.

While the Dodgers are surely hoping that Conforto unlocks something closer to the form he showed throughout his 20s in New York with them this year, even the 105 wRC+ he’s offered over the past three seasons would help to bolster the club’s lackluster outfield mix. Dodgers outfielders combined for a wRC+ of just 101 last year, a figure that is drastically improved by contributions from Teoscar Hernandez and Mookie Betts. Hernandez is currently a free agent, however, and while Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Dodgers remain in on him even after signing Conforto, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be in a Dodgers uniform in 2025. With Betts ticketed for an infield role next season, that left the Dodgers with a projected outfield of Tommy Edman, James Outman, and Andy Pages for next season. Pages’s 100 wRC+ led that trio in 2024, and even a relatively mediocre season for Conforto would be a massive upgrade over Outman’s ghastly 54 wRC+ in 53 games last year.

With the addition of Conforto, RosterResource projects the Dodgers for a $326MM payroll in 2025 that perfectly matches their 2024 payroll, though that projection does not factor in deferred money. Regardless, that’s not expected to prevent president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and his front office from spending this winter. Every indication has been that the Dodgers are willing and able to increase their payroll well beyond last year’s figure in order to land the right players, which is surely a relief for fans given the number of holes that remain on the roster. The Dodgers could use additional bullpen help even after reuniting with Blake Treinen earlier this evening, would benefit from either re-signing Hernandez or adding another bat to their lineup, and at minimum they appear likely to reunite with Clayton Kershaw to bolster their rotation even after landing Blake Snell last month.

Dodgers Sign Blake Treinen

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December 10: Treinen’s signing has now been officially announced by the Dodgers, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (X link).

December 9: Per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times (X link), Treinen will get a $5MM signing bonus and there no deferrals on the deal.

December 8: The Dodgers are in agreement with right-hander Blake Treinen on a two-year deal worth $22MM, according to a report from Ari Alexander of KPRC2.  It’s the largest deal for a reliever going into his age-37 or later season since the Yankees signed Mariano Rivera in 2010.  Treinen is represented by Apex Baseball.

Treinen, 36, was the Dodgers’ highest-leverage reliever this year.  Despite his fastball slipping nearly three miles per hour, he posted excellent marks with a 1.93 ERA, 30.4 K%, 6.0 BB%, and 44.7% groundball rate in 46 2/3 innings.  Treinen has been with the Dodgers since signing a one-year, $10MM deal five years ago after the A’s non-tendered him.

Treinen has worked 149 2/3 regular season innings for the Dodgers from 2020-24, adding another 33 1/3 across four different postseasons.  He remained the go-to reliever for Dodgers manager Dave Roberts in tough spots as the club climbed through the postseason to win a championship.  He made nine appearances this postseason, getting more than three outs in five of them.  Treinen was the winning pitcher in the decisive Game 5 of the World Series against the Yankees, stepping up with 2 1/3 scoreless innings.

Drafted in the seventh round by the A’s out of South Dakota State University in 2011, Treinen was shipped to the Nationals in January 2013 as part of a three-team deal that brought the Mariners Mike Morse.  Somewhat of an afterthought in that deal, Treinen worked his way up to a high-leverage role in the Nationals’ bullpen by 2016.  Treinen had a rough first half in 2017, and A’s GM Billy Beane made sure to reacquire the hard-throwing pitcher he’d drafted six years prior.  The A’s sent Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to the Nats in that deal, bringing back Jesus Luzardo, Treinen, and Sheldon Neuse.

The trade back to Oakland proved a turning point in Treinen’s career, as he blossomed into one of the game’s best relievers. In fact, Treinen’s 0.78 ERA in 2018 stands as the lowest mark in MLB history for a pitcher with at least 80 innings.  The combination of a temporary setback in 2019 (perhaps related to a back injury) and Treinen’s rising arbitration salaries led to the aforementioned non-tender, however.

Though Treinen had some struggles in the shortened 2020 season, he remained healthy and even picked up a save in Game 5 on the way to his first ring.  The Dodgers re-upped him for two years and $17.5MM with a club option for a third year.  He posted a superb 2021 season, but the following two years would be plagued by injuries.

Treinen was limited to a mere five regular season innings from 2022-23, due to a shoulder injury that culminated in November 2022 labrum and rotator cuff surgery.  The Dodgers had previously secured a 2024 option that increased based on innings pitched, allowing them to retain Treinen for just $1MM this year.  He made his season debut in May due a bruised lung, hitting the IL again in August with hip discomfort.

Given that the Mets intend to use Clay Holmes as a starting pitcher, the Treinen deal is just the second significant relief contract of the offseason, after the Red Sox signed Aroldis Chapman five days prior.  Treinen will again slot into the late innings for the Dodgers alongside fellow righties Evan Phillips and Michael Kopech.

The Dodgers made a pair of notable signings Sunday evening, re-signing Treinen shortly after adding outfielder Michael Conforto on a one-year deal.  The spotlight as we head into the Winter Meetings in Dallas, however, was on the Mets’ record-shattering 15-year, $765MM deal with Juan Soto.  The Dodgers were in the mix for Soto, but never seemed to be the favorite.  The Dodgers did make a splash already this winter by signing Blake Snell to a five-year, $182MM deal with deferrals.

With the additions of Snell, Conforto, and Treinen and an extension for Tommy Edman, RosterResource pegs the Dodgers’ competitive balance tax payroll at about $332MM, in a year where the fourth tax bracket sits at $301MM.  Given that the Dodgers already exceeded that mark by signing Snell, adding Conforto and Treinen will in effect cost the Dodgers $58.8MM this year, given the club’s 110% tax bracket.

The Opener: Draft Lottery, Sasaki, Kelly

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As the Winter Meetings continue, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. 2025 Draft Lottery:

The primary highlight of Day 2 of the Winter Meetings today figures to be the 2025 draft lottery, which is scheduled to take place at 4:30pm CT this afternoon. The top six spots in next year’s draft will be decided by tonight’s lottery. The Rockies and Marlins are tied for the best odds at landing this year’s top pick with a 22.45% chance, while the Angels (17.96%) and Nationals (10.2%) are the only other teams with at least a 10% chance of landing the first overall pick. That’s not to say it’s impossible for another team to land it, however; the Guardians did so just last year despite just a 2% chance of their name being selected for the top pick. Every team that missed the playoffs in 2024 except for the Athletics and White Sox are eligible for tonight’s lottery.

2. Sasaki officially posted:

The long-awaited posting of NPB right-hander Roki Sasaki finally arrived yesterday, kicking off a 45-day window where he’ll be able to negotiate with MLB teams. Although clubs are now able to negotiate with Sasaki, it’s widely expected that he won’t actually sign with a club for quite some time. As an international player under the age of 25, Sasaki is considered an amateur by MLB and therefore subject to the league’s restrictions on international amateurs. That not only means that the righty can only sign for whatever teams are willing to offer him from their international bonus pools, but also that he’ll be ineligible to sign between December 15, when the 2024 international signing window closes, and January 15, when the 2025 international signing window opens.

Reporting to this point has suggested that Sasaki intends to sign during the 2025 period, meaning that the majority of his posting window will be occupied by time during which he’ll be able to meet and negotiate with teams but not actually be eligible to put pen to paper. Even so, the long-awaited free agency of a rare star-caliber talent for whom money won’t be the deciding factor should make for one of the more interest storylines of the offseason going forward, as all 30 clubs and their fans can at least theoretically dream on Sasaki choosing to sign with them.

3. Cubs, Kelly nearing deal?

Yesterday afternoon, reports emerged that the Cubs and free agent catcher Carson Kelly were close to an agreement on a deal. There’s been no word of progress on a deal since then, but it would be quite unusual for a deal to reach that stage and be reported on without eventually coming to fruition. It’s possible that more information regarding where things stand between the Cubs and Kelly will become available as soon as today, though it wouldn’t be a shock if the deal didn’t become official for a few days after an agreement is reached and terms are reported. That’s been the case with several free agents this winter, including Chicago’s own two-year deal with southpaw Matthew Boyd that was made official over the weekend.

Cubs Interested In A.J. Minter, Kyle Finnegan

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The Cubs have been expected to make moves to bolster their bullpen this offseason even after acquiring right-hander Eli Morgan from the Guardians last month, and two names have emerged that Chicago has reported interest in. Jon Morosi of MLB Network writes that the Cubs are among the teams with interest in left-hander A.J. Minter, while ESPN’s Jesse Rogers notes that the club has spoken to right-hander Kyle Finnegan.

Minter, 31, is one of the winter’s more interesting free agent relievers. The southpaw broke out with the Braves during the 2020 season and has been one of the better lefty relief arms in baseball since then with a 2.85 ERA and a matching 2.84 FIP in 243 innings over the past half-decade. In that time, he’s struck out 30.1% of his opponents while walking 7.8%. Among lefty relievers with at least 200 innings of work since the start of the 2020 season, Minter’s 3.05 SIERA ranks third in the majors behind only Josh Hader and Taylor Rogers.

That track record would seemingly be enough to line him up for one of the more lucrative relief contracts of the offseason, but Minter’s free agency is complicated by a difficult platform season. In 2024, Minter managed a solid 2.62 ERA but saw his strikeout rate dip to just 26.1% while his FIP ballooned up to 4.45 due primarily to an increase in home runs allowed. More problematic for Minter than those steps backward in peripherals, however, was the season-ending hip surgery Minter underwent back in August. Recent reporting has indicated that it’s not yet clear whether Minter will be ready to pitch at the outset of the 2025 season, a reality that could cast a shadow over his free agency if interested teams believe he’s ticketed for a substantial early-season absence.

As for Finnegan, the 33-year-old has spent all five seasons of his big league career with the Nationals but was non-tendered by the club last month. After impressing in his 2020 rookie campaign with a 2.92 ERA in 25 innings, Finnegan stood as the club’s primary closer throughout their recent rebuild. He racked up 88 saves over the next four seasons, pitching to a 3.62 ERA that was 13% better than league average in 265 2/3 innings of work during that time despite a somewhat lackluster 4.28 FIP.

Despite his gaudy save totals, which includes a 38-for-43 record (88.4% conversion rate) in save situations this past season, Finnegan’s numbers cast him as more of a middle reliever than a true closer. He’s struck out just 23.3% of opponents over the last four years while walking 9.3%, and while his 47.5% career groundball rate is certainly above average it’s not exactly exceptional as Finnegan ranks just 22nd among relievers with at least 200 innings of work since the start of the 2020 season by the metric. In that same timeframe, Finnegan’s 3.86 SIERA is well below average for a reliever and ranks just 55th among 70 qualifying relievers.

With that being said, Finnegan’s somewhat middling numbers throughout his career could make him relatively affordable on the open market, and the Cubs’ hesitance in recent years to commit to pricey guarantees for relievers could lead them to be intrigued by the upside offered by a hurler who averaged 97.4 mph on his fastball last year and offers late-inning experience that could benefit a mostly young bullpen that currently features Porter Hodge as its top high leverage option after the righty posted a dominant rookie campaign in 2024. Minter, by contrast, figures to a land a healthier guarantee so long as his market isn’t depressed by the health question marks surrounding him. MLBTR predicted the lefty to land a two-year, $16MM guarantee as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where he ranked 34th.

Twins Have Received Calls Regarding Carlos Correa

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The Twins are facing tight payroll restrictions this offseason as they look to improve after narrowly missing the playoffs thanks to a brutal collapse back in September. With the club’s budget for 2025 reportedly set at $130MM and a payroll that RosterResource currently projects at $142MM, it’s hardly a secret that the club figures to make trades that will shed payroll this winter. Per Bobby Nightengale of the Minnesota Star Tribune, that’s led some clubs to inquire with the Twins about the availability of star shortstop Carlos Correa. While Nightengale goes on to emphasize that there’s been no indication those inquiries have become more serious than a preliminary phone call, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey nonetheless addressed the possibility of a Correa trade during Day 1 of the Winter Meetings on Monday.

“Obviously, you expect teams to call on players like that, especially with where we are and some of the conversations we’re having with other clubs,” Falvey said of Correa, as relayed by Nightengale. “But we want to win, so a high bar is set.”

That’s a notable change in tone from last month, when Falvey emphasized that a Correa trade wasn’t something the club was “focused on” and called Correa a “key” part of the club’s plans alongside Byron Buxton and Pablo Lopez. Even so, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported Monday that multiple sources with the Twins indicated that it’s “hard to envision” the club parting with Correa. Given that apparent reluctance to deal their star shortstop and the apparently extremely preliminary nature of inquiries into his availability, it still seems more likely than not that Correa will remain in a Twins uniform for Opening Day 2025.

With that being said, the idea of a Correa trade is certainly intriguing. Correa’s recent history has been extremely tumultuous. After signing with Minnesota on a short-term deal during the 2021-22 offseason, Correa re-entered free agency the following year after a strong platform season and reached agreements with both the Giants and Mets before those deals ultimately fell through due to medical concerns. That led Correa to re-up with the Twins on his current deal, which calls for him to earn $128MM over the next four seasons before a series of four team options that Correa can vest into guaranteed years by reaching certain plate appearance thresholds or earning a top-5 MVP finish, a Silver Slugger award, or an LCS/World Series MVP award in the season prior to the option.

Correa’s complex contract also comes with a full no-trade clause, meaning that he would have to approve of any deal that shipped him out of Minnesota. Further complicating any trade talks involving Correa is his up-and-down performance since re-signing in the Twin Cities; the shortstop’s 2023 season saw him post just 1.8 fWAR and a 95 wRC+ in a full workload of 135 games as he played through plantar fasciitis. His performance bounced back to its previous impressive level in 2024 as he hit .310/.388/.517 with a 155 wRC+, but plantar fasciitis once again hobbled him and limited the shortstop to just 86 games. Overall, the 30-year-old has hit .261/.341/.444 (119 wRC+) in 221 games over the past two seasons.

Given Correa’s tantalizing value when healthy, it’s easy to imagine at least some high-revenue clubs being willing to gamble on his contract. That’s clearly not going to be enough to get a deal done, however, as Falvey has made clear that he isn’t interested in merely dealing Correa for the sake of salary relief. Even if Correa were willing to waive his no-trade clause to depart Minnesota, it’s unclear if interested clubs would be willing to part ways with the sort of package that would entice Falvey to make a deal in order to land him. While the club has 2022 first-rounder Brooks Lee as an option potentially capable of taking over shortstop in the event that Correa is traded, he struggled to a .221/.265/.320 slash line in his first taste of big league action and may not be ready for an everyday job to start the 2025 season.

With the apparent unlikelihood of a Correa deal coming together in mind, it still seems as though the Twins will have to shed salary somewhere. To that end, Nightengale highlights utility man Willi Castro, right-hander Chris Paddack, and catcher Christian Vazquez as “obvious trade candidates,” though he suggests that none of the three would bring back much of significance in return beyond salary relief. It’s not the first time that trio has come up as potential trade candidates this winter, but if the Twins managed to clear all three of them off the books entirely that would free up a combined estimate of $23.7MM using the $6.2MM projection of Castro’s final trip through arbitration offered by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

If Minnesota were able to free up all of that money, they’d seemingly have around $10.5MM to invest in other areas of the roster. To that end, Nightengale notes that Falvey described adding a first baseman “has some appeal” with Carlos Santana having elected free agency last month, and that a right-handed complement to lefty outfielders Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach could also make plenty of sense for a club that lost Manuel Margot to free agency in November as well. Ramon Laureano, Mark Canha, and Austin Hays are among the interesting budget options available on the right-handed outfield market, while Santana is joined by the likes of Josh Bell, Anthony Rizzo, and Paul Goldschmidt in the lower tiers of the first base market this winter.

Athletics Risk MLBPA Grievance Without Further Payroll Increases

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As they look to ramp up payroll ahead of their impending move to Las Vegas, the Athletics inked right-hander Luis Severino to the largest deal in franchise history last week as they look to capture the attention of a new city during their temporary move to West Sacramento. With that being said, a report from Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic on Monday emphasized that getting fans into seats in 2025 isn’t the only motivation behind the club’s decision to increase spending. The duo reports that without a substantial increase to the club’s payroll this winter, the A’s run the risk of inviting a grievance from the MLB Players Association.

That risk of a grievance is due to the fact that A’s will collect 100% of their revenue-sharing dollars in 2025 for the first time under the current collective bargaining agreement. While the team received just 25% of their allotment in 2022, that figured increased to 50% in 2023 and 75% in 2024 before finally reaching 100% in 2025. The issue for the A’s stems from the fact that the CBA requires revenue sharing recipients to spend more than 150% of their revenue sharing money on MLB payroll.

Drellich and Rosenthal go on to report that A’s could receive $70MM or more in revenue sharing after drawing the worst attendance figures in baseball last year, which would mean the club needs to reach a player payroll of $105MM or more for luxury tax purposes in 2025 in order to avoid risking a grievance. RosterResource currently projects the club for a luxury tax payroll of just under $78.5MM for 2025, meaning they would need to add roughly $26.5MM in player payroll to avoid falling below that 150% figure. It’s worth noting that these numbers are inexact, as well, and if the A’s receive a larger revenue sharing check than currently expected they may wind up needing to float a luxury tax payroll of more than $105MM in order to avoid a grievance.

For a club that has struggled to lure in free agents this winter due to the fact that they’ll spend the next three seasons using a Triple-A stadium as their home ballpark, reaching that level of spending could be complicated. A separate report from Rosenthal suggests that the A’s have interest in adding another free agent starting pitcher alongside Severino, though he adds that such a signing would likely be a veteran pitcher from a lower tier of free agency. Rosenthal specifically name-checks Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Andrew Heaney as potential options the A’s could consider if any of them were willing to pitch in West Sacramento next season.

Of the three, Heaney was predicted to land the largest contract on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list with a two-year, $24MM pact. That $12MM AAV would bump the club’s luxury tax payroll up to $90.5MM, putting them just $15MM away from reaching their estimated $105MM target. The tough sell of pitching in West Sacramento and the projection-beating deals signed by other pitchers this winter could leave the A’s in a position where they’d need to offer more than that $12MM annual figure in order to land a veteran hurler, but they’d surely still need to find other ways to add salary in order to reach $105MM even if they signed a veteran starter to a deal that significantly outpaced projections.

Free agency isn’t the only avenue for adding talent (and payroll), of course. The trade market is one avenue for adding MLB talent that the club has been candid about exploring this winter. Cubs outfielder Cody Bellinger and Diamondbacks southpaw Jordan Montgomery are two high-priced players known to be available in the rumor mill who the club could swing deals for if they want to immediately put themselves in position to avoid a grievance in one fell swoop, but there’s a large swath of other players expected to be available this winter who could add to the club’s payroll in a less drastic fashion. Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz, Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner, and Cardinals southpaw Steven Matz are among a handful of possible trade candidates who will make $10MM or more in 2025.

Another route the A’s could take to raise the luxury tax payroll that wouldn’t require convincing a free agent to sign or swinging a trade with another club would be signing a player already in the organization to an extension. Reporting over the weekend indicated that the Athletics have interest in negotiating an extension with breakout slugger Brent Rooker. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Rooker to earn $5.1MM in his first trip through arbitration this winter, and any extension that would guarantee Rooker an AAV higher than that $5.1MM figure would increase the club’s luxury tax payroll. As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk noted over the weekend, it’s possible that even if the A’s and Rooker aren’t interested in agreeing on a long-term deal that buys out some of Rooker’s free agent years, an extension that covers his arbitration years could offer certainty to both sides. Such an extension would come with an additional boon for the A’s in light of their current predicament by surely raising the AAV on Rooker’s 2025 contract, though no realistic extension could be expected to raise the club’s tax payroll by the $26.5MM needed to avoid risking a grievance by itself.

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