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Padres Notes: Offseason Needs, Loáisiga, Payroll, Cease

By Leo Morgenstern | December 10, 2024 at 4:47pm CDT

After a successful 2024 campaign that saw the Padres return to the postseason despite cutting payroll and trading Juan Soto, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is doubtlessly looking to improve his team over the winter. To that end, he told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell that he’s looking to address holes in the corner outfield, the starting rotation, and behind the dish. None of that is especially surprising considering some of the players the Padres lost to free agency this winter, namely left fielder Jurickson Profar, starter Martín Pérez, and catcher Kyle Higashioka. Moreover, starter Joe Musgrove will miss the 2025 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, leaving the rotation without much depth.

With that said, the Padres have not yet been linked to many free agents to fill those holes. They’re interested in starter Roki Sasaki (per ESPN), but at this point, so is just about everyone else. When it comes to catchers, they’re starting to run out of options, with Higashioka, Travis d’Arnaud, Danny Jansen, and Gary Sánchez off the market and Carson Kelly nearing a deal with the Cubs. As for corner outfielders, the Padres haven’t been strongly connected to anyone yet; Preller told Cassavell he hasn’t closed the door on a reunion with Profar, but that’s pretty much it.

Similarly, the Padres have expressed some interest in bringing back Ha-Seong Kim, although the infield seems to be less of a priority. After all, the team already has an internal option to replace Kim at the keystone: Jake Cronenworth can play more often at second base and Luis Arraez can play more often at first.

Bolstering the bullpen isn’t at the top of Preller’s to-do list either, but ESPN’s Jorge Castillo recently included the Padres on a list of suitors for right-hander Jonathan Loáisiga. While the Padres lost Tanner Scott to free agency, they still have a pair of imposing back-end relievers in Robert Suarez and Jason Adam. Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon also enjoyed strong breakout seasons in 2024, while Yuki Matsui was solid in his first taste of MLB action. Even so, there’s no such thing as too much bullpen talent, and Loáisiga is the kind of high-upside arm it can’t hurt to check in on. Due to numerous arm injuries over the past three years (most recently a torn UCL), he’s unlikely to sign for multiple years or much money. However, he was dominant the last time he was healthy in 2021, tossing 70 2/3 innings with a 2.17 ERA. He flashed a 98 mph sinker and nasty sweeping curveball in a handful of outings earlier this year, and it’s possible he’ll be back from his internal brace procedure in time for Opening Day.

So, why might the Padres be particularly interested in a buy-low free agent like Loáisiga? Perhaps it’s the same reason they haven’t linked to many other free agents, even at areas of greater need. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes that San Diego’s payroll will likely fall somewhere in between last year’s final tally of $169MM and the current RosterResource estimate of $210MM for 2025. In other words, Preller might need to get some cash off the books before can start spending.

One idea to help the Padres reduce payroll that’s recently been picking up steam is trading Dylan Cease. According to Acee, they have indeed discussed the idea with other teams at the Winter Meetings. It’s not clear how serious those discussions are; some of Acee’s sources suggest the Padres are actively shopping the right-hander, while others suggest they’re merely open to offers.

Needless to say, Cease isn’t a player most contending teams would consider trading. According to FanGraphs, he was worth 4.8 WAR in 2024 and 17.2 WAR over the past four seasons. That’s not the kind of production that’s easy to replace at any price, let alone his $13.7MM projected salary. That said, this wouldn’t be the first time Preller has traded a star player while remaining competitive. Perhaps he’s confident the Padres will land Sasaki. Alternatively, he could be planning to trade for Garrett Crochet; the Padres have been linked to the White Sox ace. Those might be the only two options for San Diego to replace a top-of-the-rotation pitcher like Cease at a lower salary.

Indeed, without Sasaki or Crochet, it’s hard to imagine how trading Cease wouldn’t set the Padres back. After all, Preller himself said that adding a starting pitcher was a priority this offseason. Beyond Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish, the Padres rotation is all question marks. Randy Vásquez struggled in his first season with San Diego, while Matt Waldron quickly slowed down after a hot start in 2024. Dealing Cease could help the Padres fill other holes on the roster, but without a frontline starter to take his place, such a move might just be one step forward and two steps back.

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Notes San Diego Padres Dylan Cease Jonathan Loaisiga

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Tigers Sign Alex Cobb

By Darragh McDonald | December 10, 2024 at 4:18pm CDT

The Tigers announced the signing of veteran right-hander Alex Cobb to a one-year, $15MM deal. He’d unlock $1MM bonuses at each of 140 and 150 innings. Detroit designated outfielder Akil Baddoo for assignment in a corresponding move. Cobb is represented by Beverly Hills Sports Council.

The move fits with the Tigers’ recent modus operandi when it comes to rotation building. Since Scott Harris was hired as president of baseball operations in September of 2022, the club has tended towards short-term deals for starting pitchers. Detroit’s first offseason under Harris resulted in one-year deals for Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen. Last winter, it was a one-year deal for Jack Flaherty and a two-year pact for Kenta Maeda.

Going into 2025, it would have been fair to expect more aggression. The Tigers surged in the second half of 2024, making the playoffs or the first time in a decade. They have an exciting core of young players and almost no money on the long-term payroll. Moving to the top tiers or even just to the middle of the rotation market could have been viable, but it was reported in recent days that the Tigers preferred to stick to chasing upside on shorter pacts.

Cobb, 37, is certainly a buy-low move since he’s coming off a mostly lost season. He was with the Giants at the start of the year, recovering from offseason hip surgery. It was initially hoped that he would be recovered from that procedure fairly early in the year but he ended up battling through some shoulder discomfort. He still hadn’t made his season debut when he was traded to the Guardians ahead of the deadline.

With the Guards down the stretch, he was able to get on the mound but also dealt with some fingernail/blister issues that got in his way and sent him back to the injured list twice down the stretch. Cleveland made the postseason regardless and Cobb was activated for the American League Division Series but he was later bumped from the Championship Series roster due to an acute left low back strain.

Around all those injury setbacks, Cobb only made five starts on the year, three in the regular season and two in the playoffs. He only threw 22 innings overall between those five outings, a tiny sample that would be tough to draw meaningful conclusions from.

The Tigers are surely hoping Cobb can bounce back from that tough season, something he’s done before. He was a rotation regular for the Rays over the 2012-14 seasons but then missed all of 2015 and most of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery. He was back on the mound and made at least 28 starts in both 2017 and 2018, but then various ailments limited him to just three starts in 2019.

He wasn’t terribly effective in the shortened 2020 season but went on to have a strong three-year run after that, his most recent stretch of being both healthy and effective. From 2021 to 2023, he made 74 starts and tossed 394 1/3 innings with a 3.79 earned run average. He struck out 22.8% of batters faced in that time, limited walks to a 6.8% clip and and kept 58.1% of balls in play on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 350 innings in that stretch, only Framber Valdez and Logan Webb had better ground ball rates.

The Tigers are obviously hoping that the injuries are behind him and Cobb can get back into that 2021-23 form. There is some risk there, as Cobb is now 37 years old and can’t keep coming back from injuries forever, but he’s done it before and has a long track record. He has 233 starts under his belt overall with a 3.84 ERA.

As Detroit engineered its fairytale finish to the 2024 season, manager A.J. Hinch used the term “pitching chaos” to describe the approach. Thanks to some trades and some injuries, the Tigers were effectively down to just Tarik Skubal as the only regular starting pitcher, otherwise cobbling games together via openers, bulk guys, bullpen games and whatever Hinch could make work.

That did the trick for a while but could be difficult to maintain over an entire 162-game schedule, so bolstering the rotation was a natural target for the Tigers this winter. Skubal and Cobb should have two rotation jobs with Reese Olson in another.

Guys like Maeda, Casey Mize, Jackson Jobe and Matt Manning could be in the mix for roles as well, but there are question marks with each of those. Maeda struggled badly this year and got bumped to the bullpen, finishing the year with a 6.09 ERA. Mize and Manning are former top prospects but with middling results thus far in their careers. Jobe is one of the most exciting young pitchers in the league but only just made his major league debut late in the year and only has two Triple-A starts under his belt.

Perhaps the Tigers will make further additions to that group. Finances shouldn’t be standing in the way. Before factoring in Cobb, RosterResource projects the Tigers for a payroll of just $80MM next year. As mentioned, there’s almost nothing on the long-term books. Cot’s Baseball Contracts had Detroit at $98MM on Opening Day this past year and they’ve been far higher than that in the past.

Though if the recent past in any indication, they’ll be looking to chase upside on fairly modest deals. They’ve been connected to arms like Kyle Gibson, Walker Buehler and Andrew Heaney in recent days, with each of those guys expected to land a one- or two-year deal. For now, the Tigers have added some stability to an area of the roster that was fairly lacking in it.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Tigers and Cobb had agreed to a one-year deal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post had the financials.

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Detroit Tigers Newsstand Transactions Alex Cobb

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript: Winter Meetings Continue!

By Steve Adams | December 10, 2024 at 3:52pm CDT

Day 2 of the Winter Meetings has brought a massive deal for Max Fried, a Rangers/Nathan Eovaldi reunion and an out-of-the-blue Andres Gimenez trade! MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes and I are down in Dallas for this year's event. We hosted a chat with subscribers for the next hour or so. If you haven’t subscribed to Trade Rumors Front Office, you can learn more here and do so today.

 

 

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Max Fried Will Reportedly Choose Destination In Coming Days

By Darragh McDonald | December 10, 2024 at 2:45pm CDT

Left-hander Max Fried is one of the top remaining free agents but he could be coming off the board soon. Per a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Fried is expected to pick his next club by Thursday, with the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays presented as the frontrunners. Rosenthal adds that right-hander Corbin Burnes is generating interest from the same three clubs, with the Giants perhaps involved there as well but not for Fried. The Rangers are mentioned as a possibility for Fried but that’s depicted as more of a long shot, with the Angels listed alongside the Giants as cubs that are not finalists for Fried.

It’s perhaps not a coincidence that the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays were finalists in the Juan Soto frenzy and are now listed as the most likely landing spots for Fried. The general expectation throughout the baseball world has been that the clubs with money to spend would focus on Soto until getting clarity on that situation, with those that missed out then pivoting to other targets. Now that Soto is going to the Mets, that seems to be how things are indeed playing out.

All three clubs are looking to make a big splash, though for different reasons. The Yankees just made it to the World Series, but suffered a deflating five-game loss to the Dodgers in which they looked clearly outmatched. They then lost last year’s big splash when Soto moved from the Bronx to Queens. The Red Sox have been dialing back payroll in recent years with lackluster results to go along with it, though now seem motivated to big big dogs again. The Jays were good during the regular season from 2020 to 2023 but suffered heartbreaking ends in each of those years, narrowly missing the playoffs in one of them with three quick postseason exits in the others. They followed that up with a dismal 2024 season that saw them fall to the basement of the A.L. East.

In different ways, each club is looking to both improve their respective rosters for next year while also perhaps mollifying a restive fanbase. Soto would have been one way of doing that but that’s now off the table.

Fried, 31 in January, has been a strong pitcher at the major league level for quite some time. He got brief big league looks in 2017 and 2018 but has been an established big leaguer for the past six seasons. From 2019 to the present, he has tossed 824 2/3 innings, allowing 3.06 earned runs per nine. His 23.8% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate in that time were both a bit above average while his 54.1% ground ball rate was excellent. Only Framber Valdez and Logan Webb had better ground ball rates for that time, among pitchers with at least 550 innings pitched, and Fried had a slightly better strikeout rate than those two. Fried was also a key part of Atlanta’s postseason rotations throughout that time.

There is a little bit of injury risk, as Fried was limited to 14 starts last year due to a forearm strain and had a brief IL stint in 2024 due to neuritis in that same forearm. That’s bit concerning but Fried managed to make 29 starts this year, logging 174 1/3 innings, and there hasn’t been anything to suggest he won’t be healthy for 2025.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Fried could land a six-year deal with a $156MM guarantee, though it’s possible that Fried’s earning power has jumped since then. Pitchers like Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and Clay Holmes have outearned expectations and the massive Soto deal has perhaps altered industry spending expectations more generally.

For the Yankees, they don’t strictly need pitching. Their rotation is already fairly deep with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Gil, Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes and other options on the roster. However, Fried would certainly upgrade that group and they could then perhaps use the surplus to make a trade, with both Stroman and Cortes have been in previous rumors.

Boston’s chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has said he would like to raise the ceiling of the club’s rotation, which currently has a core three of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford. The Sox will get Lucas Giolito back at some point during the 2025 season, once he recovers from last year’s elbow surgery. They have depth options like Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell and Quinn Priester but adding Fried would help the club with its aims of improving the rotation and the club more generally.

The Toronto rotation has a veteran core of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt. It seems likely that Bowden Francis will get a shot at having a spot next year since he was so strong in the second half of 2024. Yariel Rodríguez is an option for the fifth spot but he also has plenty of relief experience and could get bumped to the bullpen. Jake Bloss is on the roster and has encouraging potential but limited experience and could be ticketed for the Triple-A rotation.

While all three clubs are looking at Fried, they have another option in Burnes. He has flashed a higher ceiling than Fried but hasn’t hit that ceiling in the past two years. From 2020 to 2022, he posted a 2.62 ERA with a 33.4% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 47.6% ground ball rate. Over the past two seasons, his 3.15 ERA has still been a strong mark but with a diminished strikeout rate of 24.3%. He is still perceived as a strong option on account of his durability and overall strong results, with MLBTR predicted him for a $200MM guarantee over seven years.

The Giants make sense for a rotation addition and seemingly prefer Burnes to Fried. Their rotation currently consists of Webb, Robbie Ray and Kyle Harrison. President of baseball operations Buster Posey said this week that Jordan Hicks will get another shot at a rotation job. Guys like Hayden Birdsong and Landen Roupp could battle for the fifth spot but getting Burnes would obviously be a boon to the group.

Both Burnes and Fried rejected qualifying offers and are therefore associated with penalties, which differ depending on who ultimately signs them. The Giants are perhaps the most interesting club in this group as they already agreed to sign QO guy in Willy Adames. Since they paid the competitive balance tax last year, that means forfeiting $1MM of international bonus pool space and two draft picks, while signing another QO would effectively double that.

The Rangers’ interest in Fried was reported previously but also characterized as more of a long shot. They definitely want rotation upgrades, including a hope of re-signing Nathan Eovaldi, but they might need more clarity on their finances. They no longer have a broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group and have been looking into creating their own regional sports network but haven’t quite figured that all out yet. They are reportedly hoping to stay under the CBT in 2025 and they might need to make progress on the broadcast deal before throwing big money around.

The Angels are seemingly only mentioned to touch on Fried’s potential geographic preferences. Fried was born and raised in Southern California, then committed to UCLA before being drafted by the Padres. He was traded to Atlanta as a prospect and has spent his entire major league career with them so far. That club has signed many players to extensions but Fried wasn’t one of them. Rosenthal relays that some clubs feared Fried would prefer to return to the West Coast but it seems his three primary suitors are all A.L. East clubs.

Time will tell how things play out with Fried and Burnes, but it seems that the expected post-Soto domino effect might be coming to pass. As clubs pivot to plan B or plan C or plan D, guys like Fried and Burnes are seeing their markets heat up, which could potentially also impact guys like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso and others soon as well.

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Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Angels New York Yankees Newsstand San Francisco Giants Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Corbin Burnes Max Fried

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Orioles Sign Tyler O’Neill

By Nick Deeds | December 10, 2024 at 2:37pm CDT

December 10: The Orioles officially announced O’Neill’s signing this afternoon.

December 7: The Orioles are in agreement with outfielder Tyler O’Neill on a three-year, $49.5MM deal according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman adds that the Boras Corporation client’s contract comes with an opt-out opportunity following the 2025 season.

O’Neill, 30 in June, entered his walk year having just been shipped from the Cardinals to the Red Sox. While he had earned down-ballot MVP consideration with a fantastic 2021 season in St. Louis, back-to-back down seasons combined with a glut of viable outfield options left O’Neill as the odd man out with the club. He made the most of the situation and carved a regular role for himself in Boston this year, however.

While O’Neill struggled with his health between two trips to the injured list this past year, he performed at a high level when healthy enough to take the field. In 113 games for Boston, he slashed a strong .241/.336/.511 with a 131 wRC+. That production came with an unsightly 33.6% strikeout rate, though O’Neill made up for it somewhat with 31 homers and a 11.2% walk rate.

The outfielder is certainly not without warts. His high strikeout rate is at least somewhat concerning even when factoring in his power and high walk rate, and he also posted a massive platoon split last year. While he put up an incredible 215 wRC+ against left-handed pitching last year, same-handed pitchers held him to below average offense (91 wRC+) overall as he hit just .208/.290/.403 against them. O’Neill’s lengthy injury history is also something of a red flag that could hamper his value in the coming years. Even with those concerns, however, it’s easy to see O’Neill’s fit in Baltimore. The Orioles have a deep position player mix that can help to cover for O’Neill when he’s injured and perhaps even give him occasional days off against tough right-handed opponents.

Meanwhile, O’Neill’s phenomenal numbers against left-handed pitching could provide a massive boost to a heavily left-handed Orioles lineup. Orioles outfielders hit a decent .236/.302/.419 (106 wRC+) against left-handed pitching last year, but much of that production came from Anthony Santander’s 132 wRC+ against southpaws. Santander is now a free agent, leaving the club with the lefty-swinging Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins, Heston Kjerstad, and perhaps Ryan O’Hearn in their projected outfield mix. All four of those players are left-handed hitters, and Cowser’s 89 wRC+ against lefties last year was the highest mark among the quartet. By adding O’Neill to the mix, the Orioles should be able to help balance an outfield that projected to be well below average against southpaws in 2025.

Notably, they’ve also done so at a far more affordable price tag than they likely would’ve if they simply re-signed Santander. While MLBTR’s #9 free agent on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list was predicted for a four-year, $80MM pact in free agency after slugging 44 homers for the Orioles this year, O’Neill ranked farther down the board at #19 with a projected deal of three years and $42MM. It’s a deal O’Neill managed to beat by a small amount in terms of total guarantee, and he managed to add additional value to his contract by affording himself the opportunity to opt out of the final two years of the deal next winter. If O’Neill manages to stay healthy and replicate his strong production from his time in Boston in 2025, it’s not hard to imagine him re-entering free agency in line for a much more lucrative deal next winter.

In the meantime, O’Neill will provide a veteran presence in a young and exciting Orioles lineup. Baltimore is known to be in the market for a catcher to back up Adley Rutschman at the position and push waiver wire addition Rene Pinto into a depth role, but O’Neill’s signing likely represents the heavy lifting in terms of the club’s offensive upgrades this winter. That doesn’t mean they’re done for the winter, however; the club has long been connected to the market for starting pitching as they look to either reunite with or replace ace hurler Corbin Burnes at the top of their rotation. Aside from that, the club figures to make bullpen additions who can help to replace hurlers Danny Coulombe and Jacob Webb, though the return of closer Felix Bautista from Tommy John surgery in the spring should provide a big boost to the relief corps already.

The club figures to still have resources available to make those additions even after adding O’Neill. RosterResource projects the Orioles for a $114MM payroll in 2025 with O’Neill in the fold. That would not only be a step above last year’s payroll but also the highest payroll the club has put forward since the 2018 season. Of course, the club’s new ownership group led by David Rubenstein has seemed far more open to spending in free agency that the Angelos family was in the final years of their ownership tenure, and the club has been candid about their increased payroll flexibility this winter. The club is likely further emboldened by just how clean their long-term books are: O’Neill’s contract is their first guaranteed money on the books for the 2026 season, with all other payroll commitments coming in the form of arbitration level or pre-arbitration level players.

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Baltimore Orioles Newsstand Transactions Tyler O'Neill

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Orioles Sign Gary Sanchez

By Nick Deeds | December 10, 2024 at 2:36pm CDT

December 10: The Orioles officially announced Sanchez’s signing this afternoon.

December 7: The Orioles have agreed to a one-year deal with catcher Gary Sanchez, according to a report from Jon Heyman of The New York Post, who adds that the deal guarantees Sanchez $8.5MM. Sanchez is represented by MDR Sports Management.

Sanchez, who celebrated his 32nd birthday earlier this week, returns to the AL East after spending the first seven seasons of his MLB career with the Yankees. The first few years of his career saw him establish himself as one of the better offensive catchers in baseball with a .246/.328/.518 slash line in 327 games through the end of the 2019 season. In that time, he made two All-Star games and clobbered 105 home runs in 1576 plate appearances. That 30-to-35 homer power helped to make up for Sanchez’s middling defense behind the plate, but things took a turn for the worse when he started to struggle on offense. After striking out at a 24.1% clip through the end of the 2019 season, his 2020-22 seasons saw that rate tick up to 29.5%. Meanwhile, Sanchez’s home run power began to suffer as he hit just 49 homers in 294 games. This period even saw his defense drop from roughly average to nearly unplayable, including a -12 figure in Statcast’s catcher defense metric during the 2021 season.

These struggles led the Yankees to trade Sanchez to the Twins prior to the 2022 season, where he continued to struggle at the plate but managed to bounce back a bit on defense. Sanchez then entered free agency but did not find a deal before the 2022 season began. He eventually signed with the Mets during the season but lasted just three games on the club’s roster before spending the rest of the season in a Padres uniform. With San Diego, Sanchez managed to bounce back and flash some of the power he had shown during his Yankees days, slashing .218/.292/.500 with 19 homers in just 260 plate appearances and a 114 wRC+. That earned Sanchez a guranteed deal in Milwaukee this past season, where he served as a back up for William Contreras at catcher and occasionally found his way into the first base/DH mix as well.

Since leaving the Bronx, Sanchez has generally had the look of a solid if unspectacular catching option. In that time, he’s slashed .212/.291/.412 with a 96 wRC+ that’s more or less in line with his production for the Brewers last year, and he’s done so while providing the roughly average defense he offered early in is career. That’s enough to make him a quality back up catching option for virtually any team, and he’ll take over the role vacated by James McCann when he elected free agency last month as Adley Rutschman’s partner in the Orioles catching tandem. In addition to sharing catching duties, Sanchez can also serve a secondary role of helping improve the club’s offense against left-handed pitching by providing a righty-swinging alternative to Ryan O’Hearn at DH on days where he isn’t filling in for Rutschman behind the plate. That makes Sanchez the second player the club has added today who could provide a boost to their offense against southpaws, joining Tyler O’Neill who agreed to a three-year deal with the Orioles earlier today.

While the Orioles had internal options to serve as their secondary catcher behind Rutschman such as Rene Pinto and Blake Hunt, the club made clear in recent weeks that they hoped to add a more established player to that mix. That included a reported interest in reunion with James McCann, but reports seemed to indicate that McCann could look to find a multi-year deal in free agency while the Orioles were hoping to find a one-year arrangement given the presence of top catching prospect Samuel Basallo in their minor league system. To find a quality player willing to accept a one-year deal and a back-up job that won’t guarantee regular playing time, it seems as though Baltimore may have had to go over the top to land Sanchez; his one-year, $8.5MM guarantee matches the guarantee Danny Jansen landed from the Rays yesterday to serve as their regular starter behind the plate and far exceeds the $3MM guarantee he received from the Brewers last year.

That willingness to stretch financially in order to land the right fit for their roster is a luxury GM Mike Elias and his front office haven’t had in previous winters, when the Angelos family owned the team. New owner David Rubenstein has given the club the ability to expand payroll significantly, however, and the Orioles now project to open the 2025 season with a $122MM payroll according to RosterResource. It seems reasonable to expect that the club’s payroll could continue to climb from here as well, with Baltimore seemingly poised to turn their attention to the starting pitching market where they’ve been connected to Jack Flaherty and Nathan Eovaldi if they aren’t able to retain ace Corbin Burnes. As for the catching market, Sanchez joins Austin Hedges, Jacob Stallings, Kyle Higashioka, and Jansen in having already come off the board in what’s been the fastest-moving part of the positional market this winter. A few quality options remain available, however, including Carson Kelly and Elias Diaz.

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Baltimore Orioles Newsstand Transactions Gary Sanchez

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Rockies To Sign Thairo Estrada

By Leo Morgenstern | December 10, 2024 at 2:03pm CDT

The Rockies have agreed to a one-year, $3.25MM contract with Thairo Estrada, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The deal comes with a mutual option for 2026 or a $750K buyout. However, if either side declines the mutual option, the Rockies will still have the opportunity to retain Estrada via arbitration for one more year due to his Super Two status.

Estrada, 29 in February, began his career with the Yankees but broke out after a trade to the Giants in 2021. He carved out a role for himself in San Francisco with a league-average bat, above-average speed, valuable defensive versatility, and a plus glove at second base. Over 312 games from 2021-23, he slashed .266/.320/.416 with a 105 wRC+, 45 stolen bases, and 7.4 FanGraphs WAR.

Unfortunately, the 2024 season was rough for Estrada. He spent two separate stints on the injured list with a sprained wrist, and while he only missed a handful of weeks, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area notes that he was playing through injury throughout the season. It certainly showed in his numbers. Estrada still came up with 9 Outs Above Average at second base, but his offensive production was dreadful. Over 96 games, he slashed .217/.247/.343 with a 64 wRC+. Eventually, the Giants were no longer willing to keep him on the roster, sending him outright to Triple-A at the end of August. He elected free agency after the season.

Thomas Harding of MLB.com linked Estrada to Colorado last week, noting that the club was looking for a new second baseman. The Rockies are set with Ezequiel Tovar at shortstop and Ryan McMahon at third base, but they had a gap on the right side of the infield after non-tendering Brendan Rodgers earlier in the offseason. While they signed Kyle Farmer to a one-year, $3.25MM guarantee in November, Farmer is older and lacks Estrada’s upside. He’s better suited to a utility role, which is the role he’s played for most of his career.

Estrada also drew interest from the Yankees this offseason. Yet, in Colorado, he will get everyday playing time as he looks to rebuild his value. Eventually, he could have competition from top infield prospect Adael Amador, but Amador won’t turn 22 until April, and his aggressive call-up in 2024 proved he wasn’t ready for the majors. Indeed, he has yet to play a single game at Triple-A. If Amador continues to progress and Estrada bounces back, Estrada could become a valuable trade chip for the Rockies next winter.

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Hanwha Eagles Sign Estevan Florial

By Leo Morgenstern | December 10, 2024 at 1:07pm CDT

Outfielder Estevan Florial has agreed to a contract with the KBO’s Hanwha Eagles, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He had been outrighted by the Guardians earlier this summer and elected free agency at the end of the season.

Florial signed with the Yankees as an international free agent in 2015. He quickly began turning heads in the organization with his strong performance in the low minors. Entering the 2019 season, MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and FanGraphs all ranked him as the number one prospect in the system. He was as toolsy as they come, with plus speed, big raw power, and a powerful throwing arm in center field.

Unfortunately, Florial never found a way to tap into all his potential at the highest level. Over parts of four seasons with the Yankees from 2020-23, he appeared in just 48 games, slashing .209/.313/.296 with a 75 wRC+. The Yankees traded him to the Guardians after the 2023 season, and he earned more playing time in Cleveland, appearing in 36 games for the Guardians in April and May. However, his results were just as poor. Over 111 trips to the plate, he put up a .173/.264/.367 batting line, good for an 80 wRC+. Cleveland designated him for assignment at the end of May, and he spent the rest of the season with the Triple-A Columbus Clippers.

Although Florial didn’t look any better with the Clippers than he did with the Guardians (.213 AVG, 83 wRC+), he has had success at Triple-A in the recent past. From 2022-23, he put up an impressive .283/.374/.523 slash-line over 202 games for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders. In that time, he hit 43 home runs, stole 64 bases, and produced a 127 wRC+. It’s that level of performance the Eagles are surely hoping he’ll replicate in his first season in the KBO.

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Yankees, Cubs Interested In Kyle Tucker

By Darragh McDonald | December 10, 2024 at 12:54pm CDT

Astros general manager Dana Brown left the door open yesterday to trading either outfielder Kyle Tucker or left-hander Framber Valdez this winter. Today, Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link) reports that the Yankees and Cubs are two clubs interested in Tucker.

The news isn’t especially surprising. Tucker is one of the best players in the league and it would actually be more of a shock if any club weren’t interested in him. He is entering his final year of club control, which should eliminate teams fully in rebuild mode, but he should have broad interest apart from that. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Tucker for a $15.8MM salary next year, a notable sum but still affordable for any team and a bargain for a player of Tucker’s talent level.

From 2021 to 2023, Tucker’s production was fairly consistent and also trending upward. He hit 30 home runs in the first two of those seasons and then 29 in the third. His walk and strikeout rates each made slight improvements in that stretch. He drew free passes at a 9.3% clip in 2021, then 9.7% and 11.9% in the next two seasons, while his strikeout rate went from 15.9% to 15.6% and then 13.9%. His stolen base total went from 14 to 25 to 30.

In 2024, he missed significant time after fouling a ball off his leg and fracturing his shin. That injury limited his counting stats but he continued to improve on a rate basis. Though his strikeout rate ticked back up to 15.9%, he drew walks in 16.5% of his plate appearances. Despite only getting into 78 games, he launched another 23 home runs. His wRC+ was between 130 and 146 over his previous three seasons but jumped to 180 in 2024.

He’s also been graded as a strong defender and, as mentioned, can steal a few bases. FanGraphs graded him as worth either 4.9 or 5.0 wins above replacement in three seasons from 2021 to 2023, and Tucker was worth 4.2 fWAR in 2024 even though he played less than half a season. That’s 19.1 fWAR over the past four years, placing him in 13th among all position players for that span. Thanks to his shin injury, all 12 guys ahead of him on that list played in more games.

There are some rough parallels here with the Juan Soto situation from a year ago. The Padres were willing to make Soto’s final year of club control available on the trade market in order to walk a tightrope. They wanted to continue competing but had a tight budget and had several players that were difficult to trade due to contractual reasons. Moving Soto freed up a huge amount of payroll space and also brought back immediate help in other areas, as the Friars were able to get a package of players that included Michael King and Drew Thorpe, later flipping Thorpe to get Dylan Cease.

The Astros are in a somewhat similar spot now. Brown previously said that the club might have to get creative with money this offseason, even though they still want to win next year. Players like Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez have big contracts but are franchise cornerstones. Josh Hader and Ryan Pressly each have the right to veto any trades. Lance McCullers Jr. can’t be easily moved due to his health status.

They don’t really have to consider a trade but it seems they will pick up the phone and see if any club blows them away with a Soto-like package. Tucker’s track record isn’t quite as good as Soto’s but Soto was projected for a $33MM salary going into 2024, more than double what Tucker is slated to earn next year.

It’s theoretically possible that they can get a package of young talent they like while simultaneously freeing up some payroll space to re-sign Alex Bregman, since Brown and owner Jim Crane have both marked that as the club’s top priority. That would leave the Houston outfield consisting of Alvarez, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, Taylor Trammell and Mauricio Dubón, though it’s possible they get some cheaper outfield help back in the trade.

The Yankees, of course, wanted to re-sign Soto as a free agent but he is now going to become a Met. That leaves the Yanks with a big hole in their outfield and they have to pivot to other possibilities. The free agent market features guys like Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández while the Yankees have been connected to trade candidate Cody Bellinger. Tucker would be a more attractive option than any of those three in a vacuum but a deal coming together would naturally depend on what it would take for the Astros to let him go.

The Yankees still have Aaron Judge as their outfield anchor and might move him back to right field for the post-Soto era, with Jasson Domínguez and Trent Grisham options for center. Tucker is strong in right field, so perhaps the Yanks would consider moving him to left. Due to the short porch in right, there’s more grass to cover in left field, making defense over there more of a concern.

There shouldn’t be any financial issue, as the Yankees just reportedly make Soto an offer of $760MM over 16 years, an average annual value of $47.5MM. They will now be looking to spread that kind of money around to other players and Tucker is only projected to get about a third of that.

For the Cubs, they already have a crowded outfield picture but clearly have interest in shaking it up a bit. Bellinger has been in many rumors this winter and Seiya Suzuki’s name has come up as well. Trading either is complicated, in Bellinger’s case due to his upcoming out-out while Suzuki has a full no-trade clause. Those two project to be in an outfield group that also includes Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, as well as youngsters like Alexander Canario, Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie. Happ also has a no-trade clause while the Cubs probably want to hang onto the younger guys. Each of Happ, Bellinger and Suzuki are slated for free agency after 2026, with Bellinger perhaps departing a year earlier than that.

As mentioned, just about every contender should be calling the Astros to get a sense of the asking price. There are no guarantees that he can be obtained but even the possibility that he’s available makes him one of the most interesting names to watch in the coming weeks.

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Rakuten Eagles Sign Spencer Howard, Miguel Yajure

By Leo Morgenstern | December 10, 2024 at 12:29pm CDT

The Rakuten Eagles of Nippon Professional Baseball have signed right-handed pitchers Spencer Howard and Miguel Yajure, the team announced. Both pitchers will presumably join the Eagles starting rotation. The 2025 season will be Howard’s first in NPB and Yajure’s second.

Howard, 28, was once a promising prospect in the Phillies organization but struggled to translate his minor league skills to the major league level. Over parts of five seasons with the Phillies, Rangers, Giants, and Guardians, he put up a 7.00 ERA in 144 innings of work. His underlying numbers, including a 4.77 SIERA, are better than his unsightly ERA, but no matter what statistics you look at, it’s clear Howard could not reliably retire MLB hitters. He has also struggled in the minors in recent years, putting up a 7.07 ERA and 6.20 FIP in 70 innings at Triple-A from 2022-24. Thus, the righty will look for a fresh start with the Eagles in 2025.

Yajure, 27 in May, made his MLB debut for the Yankees during the 2020 season. Over the next three years, he pitched 46 1/3 innings for the Yankees and Pirates, putting up a 7.58 ERA – even higher than Howard’s. His 5.37 SIERA was similarly poor, as was his low strikeout rate and high walk rate. If you include hit-by-pitches, he issued nearly as many free passes (32) as strikeouts (35). So, he set out in hopes of finding greener pastures across the pond last winter. Indeed, that’s exactly what he found. Yajure signed a one-year contract with the Yakult Swallows ahead of the 2024 season. With the Swallows, he pitched to a 3.34 ERA over 129 1/3 innings. A mid-3.00s ERA in NPB isn’t quite as impressive as it would be in MLB, but Yajure was a solid contributor for the Swallows, finishing second on the team in innings pitched. It was enough to convince the Eagles to give him a contract for 2025. He’ll look to build upon a solid first season in his sophomore NPB campaign.

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