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Poll: Will The Phillies Exercise Jose Alvarado’s Option?

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The Phillies are still fighting for their playoff lives in the NLDS against the Dodgers, but whether L.A. completes the sweep today or Philadelphia mounts a comeback and makes it all the way to the World Series, the offseason is looming. Five days after the World Series concludes, teams will have to make their first major roster-related decisions of the offseason when club options come due. The majority of these options lack much intrigue, but the Phillies face the interesting call of deciding whether to pay lefty reliever Jose Alvarado $9MM for his services next year or offer him a $500K buyout and send him to free agency.

The 30-year-old Alvarado has accomplished quite a lot in parts of nine seasons as a big leaguer. Among 88 relievers to log 300 or more innings since the start of the 2017 season, Alvarado’s 3.45 ERA (37th) and 3.50 SIERA (40th) both rank in the top half while his 3.21 FIP (15th), 29.7% strikeout rate (14th), and 51.8% groundball rate (13th) all rank in the top-15. That look at his overall body of work casts Alvarado as a very solid relief arm, if a step below the elite tier. In a market where even one year deals for quality setup men often break eight figures, a $9MM option on a pitcher like that seems like an easy choice to exercise, particularly given Philadelphia’s difficulties finding quality replacements for key pieces like Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez this past offseason.

Things may not necessarily be that simple with Alvarado, however. While Alvarado’s overall stats are quite good, he’s experienced a great deal of year-to-year volatility throughout his career. He’s been utterly dominant, as he was when he pitched to a 1.74 ERA in 42 appearances with the Phillies back in 2022. Other years, however, he’s been more pedestrian than anything else. Of his nine seasons in the majors, just five of them have seen him post an ERA below 4.00.

That volatility makes him far less reliable than many other late inning arms around the game. With closers like Edwin Diaz and Devin Williams expected to be available this winter, it’s at least plausible the Phillies could feel their funds are better spent elsewhere. That’s all before considering Alvarado’s recent history, which has been ugly both on and off the field. Even when looking at his performance the past two years in a vacuum, his numbers haven’t been especially exciting. Since the start of the 2024 campaign, Alvarado has pitched to a 4.00 ERA (107 ERA+) with a 3.74 FIP.

Those are the numbers of a decent middle reliever, but not someone you would trust in a high leverage situation. The elephant in the room that is Alvarado’s PED suspension earlier this year further complicates the decision Philadelphia faces. It’s impossible for anyone other than the Phillies themselves to know what sort of impact Alvarado’s suspension had within the clubhouse, but from a purely performance-related standpoint the suspension calls into question how well the southpaw will be able to sustain his previous success going forward. A string of eight appearances down the stretch where he posted a 7.50 ERA while surrendering three home runs in six innings before his season ended due to a forearm strain did little to inspire confidence headed into next year, as well.

Even with all those potential red flags acknowledged, however, it’s still not hard to make the case for the Phillies to pick up Alvarado’s option. The club will surely be focused on filling the void impact players like Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto will leave in the lineup, and it will be a pricey endeavor to either re-sign or replace these free agents. The rotation may not be the stabilizing force that it once was, as Ranger Suarez is also a free agent, Aaron Nola struggled badly this year, and Zack Wheeler is still recovering from surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome.

This all adds more pressure on the bullpen to perform than ever before in the team’s current window. Even in Alvarado’s weakest seasons, he’s been a viable middle relief arm, and it’s nearly impossible for him to be a worse investment than Jordan Romano and his 8.23 ERA were this season. Perhaps, then, locking in the combination of upside and a solid enough floor that Alvarado provides will make sense for the team as they look to 2026 with only Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, and Tanner Banks locked into the bullpen behind closer Jhoan Duran. Even if the Phillies don’t want to roster Alvarado next year, there’s the distinct possibility that another club in need of a left-handed arm for their bullpen might be interested in working out a trade for Alvarado given his relatively affordable salary and substantial upside.

How do MLBTR readers think the Phillies will handle Alvarado’s upcoming option? Will they keep him in the fold to either work out of their bullpen next year or try to trade this winter, or will they cut bait and let him walk in free agency? Have your say in the poll below:

Astros To Retain Dana Brown, Joe Espada

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Coming off their first non-playoff season since 2016, the Astros will hold off on any major organizational overhauls.  MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart reports that both general manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada will be back with the club in 2026, for Brown’s fourth season and Espada’s third season in their respective roles.

The news isn’t hugely surprising, as Brown said during the Astros’ end-of-season press conference last week that Espada would return, and the GM believed he would also remain in his position.  There has been no indication that team owner Jim Crane is dissatisfied with the job performance of either man, whereas by comparison, there were rumors for months in 2022 that Crane was clashing with ex-GM James Click (Brown’s predecessor).  Sure enough, the Astros parted ways with Click shortly after the 2022 season, despite the fact that Houston had just won the World Series.

Since winning that championship, the Astros’ win totals and finishes have gradually gone in reverse.  Houston won 90 games and the AL West in 2023 but fell just short of another pennant, losing to the Rangers in a seven-game ALCS.  In 2024, the Astros won 89 games and another division crown, but their streak of ALCS appearances was snapped when they were upset and swept by the Tigers in the wild card series.

This season saw the Astros win 87 games, the most of any club that didn’t reach the postseason.  The Tigers were again their nemesis, also winning 87 games and edging out the Astros for the final AL wild card berth due to the tiebreaker advantage (Detroit had a 4-2 record against Houston this year).  Even with the Tigers in full collapse mode for much of September, the Astros came undone in the final stretch, going 3-6 in their last nine games.

In this sense, Brown and Espada are somewhat victims of their own success — naturally, most teams would love to have a three-season run that included two division titles and 265 wins.  For this season in particular, there was also a clear reason for the Astros’ relative struggles, as Houston was absolutely ravaged by injuries.  Only four Astros players had more than 500 plate appearances, and Framber Valdez (192 IP) and Hunter Brown (185 1/3 IP) were the only hurlers to log more than 86 innings pitched.  Within this context, Espada found himself garnering some buzz as a Manager Of The Year candidate before the bottom finally fell out on his injury-riddled club.

It isn’t hard to imagine that the Astros would’ve made the playoffs if their team had been even reasonably healthy.  However, just counting on fewer injuries in 2026 might not be enough, plus the Astros have a big pair of potential holes to fill if Valdez or productive backup catcher Victor Caratini leave in free agency.

Going forward, Brown and Espada are both under contract through at least the 2026 season, though the specific terms of either man’s contract aren’t publicly known.  If 2026 is the last year of their deals, Crane could explore at least a brief extension just to make sure that neither is a lame duck, or the owner might want to see if the Astros can firmly get things turned around before making a further commitment.

The Opener: NLDS, ALDS, Injuries

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As the playoffs continue, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. NLDS continues:

After an off-day yesterday, the NLDS continues today. The Brewers and Cubs are heading back to Wrigley Field with Chicago on the verge of elimination. Right-hander Jameson Taillon (3.68 ERA) will carry the hopes of the Cubs on his shoulder, while Quinn Priester (3.32 ERA) will try to send Milwaukee to the NLCS tonight at 4:08pm local time. Four hours later at 6:08pm local time, the Phillies and Dodgers will play Game 3 at Dodger Stadium with Philadelphia on the brink. Aaron Nola (6.01 ERA) is expected to start today’s game for the Phillies, but Alden Gonzalez of ESPN relays that manager Rob Thomson told reporters southpaw Ranger Suarez (3.20 ERA) will also pitch in the game. However those two divide today’s work, they’ll be faced with a fearsome opponent as Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.49 ERA) looks to lock up the series for Los Angeles.

2. ALDS continues:

While the NLDS is still at Game 3, the ALDS have had an extra game with both series currently split two games to one. The first game of the day is at 3:08pm local time in Detroit, where the Tigers will look to avoid elimination and tie up the series with right-hander Casey Mize (3.87 ERA) on the mound opposite Mariners righty Bryce Miller (5.68 ERA). At 7:08pm local time in the Bronx, meanwhile, the Yankees will be looking to build on yesterday’s comeback victory of the Blue Jays and tie up the series after going down two games to zero.

Toronto manager John Schneider told reporters (including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet) last night that “everyone is available” for Game 4 as they look to avoid the series coming back to Toronto for a decisive Game 5. He said he wasn’t “exactly sure” who would start the game this evening at the time, although Louis Varland has been announced as the game’s starter since then as a likely opener after surrendering a three-run homer to Aaron Judge yesterday. Regardless of who ends up pitching the bulk of Toronto’s innings, they’ll be facing Yankees rookie Cam Schlittler (2.96 ERA) with New York’s playoff hopes on the line.

3. Playoff injuries:

While the division series continue, there are some notable injury questions facing two of the NL clubs that could wind up impacting the series in a big way. Adam McCalvy of MLB.com relays that, per Brewers manager Pat Murphy, star outfielder Jackson Chourio is still bothered by the hamstring injury that saw him pulled from both Games 1 and 2 of the series, even as he managed to hit a decisive homer on his ailing hamstring in Game 2. Chourio has been among the Brewers best players both this year and during the postseason, so losing him for Game 3 would be a massive blow. Meanwhile, the Phillies may be without Harrison Bader when fighting for their playoff lives in L.A. tonight. Gonzalez relays that Thomson told reporters Bader’s presence in the lineup will be “a game-time decision” as Bader nurses a groin injury suffered in Game 1 of the series on Saturday. He was not in the lineup for Game 2 but did pinch hit in the game, recording a single off Alex Vesia.

MLB Mailbag: Reds, Bregman, Bichette, Polanco, Braves, deGrom

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This week's mailbag gets into the Reds' offense, whether Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, and Jorge Polanco will stay with their respective clubs, trade targets for the Braves' rotation, and whether the Rangers could trade Jacob deGrom.

Bill asks:

What can the Cincinnati Reds possibly do to fix the mess that is their lineup? They need at least one big bat and probably do not have the money to accomplish that.

The Reds' offense ranked eighth in the NL with 4.42 runs scored per game.  Let's examine where the lineup stands after the Reds were eliminated by the Dodgers in the Wild Card round.

No one on the Reds had a stellar offensive season.  Almost every regular fell between a 97 wRC+ and a 109 mark, with 100 being league average.  Where can improvements be found?

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Craig Breslow Discusses Red Sox’s Offseason Plans

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The Red Sox are in offseason mode after being bounced by the Yankees last week. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow met with reporters on Monday to discuss the upcoming winter (links via Tim Healey of The Boston Globe and Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic). Like many baseball operations leaders, Breslow spoke mostly in generalities but provided a few hints to the front office’s plans.

Starting pitching should be a focus for a second straight offseason. The Sox pulled off the most impactful rotation move of last winter, trading four prospects for Garrett Crochet and signing him to a six-year extension just after Opening Day. Crochet was everything the team could have hoped for and should land a top two finish in Cy Young balloting.

“Every team gets better if you can bring in a starter or develop a starting pitcher who can pitch at Garrett Crochet’s level,” Breslow said. “We will be as aggressive as we can when trying to chase that down while also ensuring we are doing everything we can to develop our players internally.” Crochet can go toe to toe with any other pitcher in MLB during Game 1 of a playoff series, but the Sox are arguably lacking a true #2 starter.

Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito were their second and third best starters this past season. Bello turned in a career-best 3.35 ERA across 166 2/3 innings. He has a ground-ball heavy approach and posted personal lows in both strikeout rate (17.7%) and swinging strike percentage (8.6%). Bello overcame that to post a sub-3.00 ERA each month between June and August. The lack of whiffs seemed to catch up to him at the end of the season, as he allowed a 5.40 ERA with a 16:12 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his five starts in September. Bello surrendered two runs on four hits without escaping the third inning in his lone playoff start.

Giolito didn’t factor into the playoffs at all and might not be back in 2026. The veteran righty went down with a season-ending elbow injury during the waning days of the regular season. That came shortly after he’d reached the 140-inning vesting threshold to convert what had been a $14MM club option into a $19MM mutual provision.

Giolito was trending towards a three- or four-year deal had he finished the season healthy. The elbow issue clouds his future, but he recently told Chris Cotillo of MassLive there’s nothing structurally amiss with his UCL. He’ll probably decline his end of the mutual option and look for a multi-year deal, and if the elbow injury were more serious than initially expected, the Sox would have passed on their side of the option either way.

A few of remaining in-house options are injured or coming back from significant issues. Patrick Sandoval should be in the mix after spending this season rehabbing last summer’s UCL surgery. Kutter Crawford missed the whole year due to knee and wrist injuries, undergoing season-ending surgery for the latter in June.

Tanner Houck underwent Tommy John surgery in August; the Sox could non-tender him in lieu of a projected $3.95MM arbitration salary. Hunter Dobbins tore his ACL around the All-Star Break. He’s unlikely to be ready for Opening Day. Dustin May will be a free agent and didn’t pitch well after being acquired as part of a bizarrely quiet trade deadline. Richard Fitts had an even 5.00 ERA over 11 appearances.

Internally, that’d place a lot of pressure on the Sox’s younger arms. Connelly Early and Payton Tolle each had breakout minor league seasons and were pressed into late-season MLB action. Early was very impressive over his first few starts; Tolle had a rockier first impression. Both have plus stuff from the left side and can compete for rotation spots in Spring Training, but they have a combined eight MLB starts (postseason included) between them. Kyle Harrison will be in the mix as well, yet the Sox kept him in Triple-A until they’d essentially run out of other healthy starting pitchers.

Framber Valdez, NPB righty Tatsuya Imai and Dylan Cease are among the top free agent starters available. Trade candidates include MacKenzie Gore, Joe Ryan, Pablo López and Sandy Alcantara. The Red Sox were linked to Ryan more frequently than any other team at the trade deadline. It’d be a surprise if they didn’t reengage with the Twins (though Minnesota will of course hear from plenty of teams about the talented right-hander).

Breslow also alluded to a couple goals on the position player side: adding power and improving the defense. The Sox ranked 15th in MLB with 186 home runs. Breslow noted that the longball can take on greater importance in the postseason, where it becomes more challenging to string together hits against higher-level pitching. He didn’t say the Sox were going to sell out for power bats, of course, but called the tougher October scoring environment a “consideration” when building the roster.

Free agency features a few sluggers. Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso and Eugenio Suárez are all hitting the market and have at least 40-homer potential (quite a bit more in Schwarber’s case). Japanese corner infielder Munetaka Murakami will be available via the posting system. He’s strikeout prone and not a great defender, but he has a 56-homer season in NPB under his belt. He drilled 22 homers and hit .273/.379/.663 over 56 games despite battling an oblique injury this year.

None of those players would provide any kind of defensive value. Boston led the majors with 116 errors. An outfield featuring Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Roman Anthony and Wilyer Abreu should be strong defensively. The infield wasn’t nearly as good.

Trevor Story’s range has declined sharply at shortstop. It doesn’t seem out of the question that the Sox could look to move him to second base in deference to Marcelo Mayer at some point (assuming Story doesn’t opt out of the remaining two years and $55MM on his deal). Kristian Campbell struggled on both sides of the ball as a rookie and doesn’t have a clear season-opening role despite signing an eight-year extension last spring.

Suárez and Murakami could play third base, but they’d be defensive downgrades compared to Alex Bregman — who’ll almost certainly opt out in search of a six or seven-year deal. Schwarber and Alonso have even less positional flexibility. The Sox already have their glut of outfielders that’ll lead to more trade rumors involving Duran and Abreu. Masataka Yoshida is a bat-only player in left field or at DH. First baseman Triston Casas is coming off a major knee injury. Breslow dodged a question about the roles for any of those players, especially Casas. “I don’t think it makes a ton of sense on October 6 to say someone is or isn’t our first baseman. We’ll see how things play out,” he said (via Healey).

Rangers, Declan Cronin Agree To Two-Year Minor League Deal

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The Rangers are signing free agent reliever Declan Cronin to a two-year minor league contract, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Cronin underwent Tommy John surgery last month and will miss next season, so this is about adding bullpen depth for 2027.

Cronin reunites with former Marlins manager Skip Schumaker, who’ll take over the Texas dugout next season. He led Miami relief pitchers with 70 1/3 innings in 2024, Schumaker’s final season in South Florida. Cronin turned in a 4.35 ERA with solid strikeout and walk rates while getting ground-balls at a 58% clip and looked like a nice find after the Fish grabbed him off waivers the preceding offseason.

The righty began this season on the 15-day injured list after suffering a Spring Training hip strain. Miami optioned him to Triple-A Jacksonville when he returned from that injury. Cronin was pitching with diminished velocity, averaging 91.8 MPH on his sinker in the minors after sitting at 93.4 during his MLB work last year.

Six weeks later, Cronin went on the minor league injured list. He briefly returned in August before getting shut back down with the elbow injury that required surgery. Miami released him to open a spot on the 40-man roster. They could have placed him on the MLB injured list, but they would’ve needed to carry him on the 40-man throughout the offseason. They decided not to do that and cut him loose instead.

The 28-year-old Cronin has just over a year of MLB service time. He’ll presumably get a look in Spring Training two years from now, where he’ll try to earn a middle relief spot. Cronin still has a pair of options remaining.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals officially have a new head of baseball operations for the first time in nearly two decades. As announced at the beginning of last offseason, longtime president of baseball ops John Mozeliak has stepped aside and passed the torch to former Rays and Red Sox executive Chaim Bloom, who'd previously been a senior advisor with the Cardinals. Bloom's end-of-season press conference spelled out what had already become abundantly clear over the past 12 months: this will be an offseason unlike any the Cardinals have experienced in recent memory -- the onset of what's likely to be a yearslong rebuild.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B: $42MM through 2027 (Rockies paying $5MM)
  • Willson Contreras, 1B: $41MM through 2027 (includes buyout of 2028 club option)
  • Sonny Gray, RHP: $40MM through 2026 (includes buyout of 2027 club option)

2026 guarantees: $75MM
Total long-term guarantees: $117.5MM through 2027

Option Decisions

  • None

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Alcala, King

Free Agents

For the early portion of last offseason, it seemed quite possible that the Cardinals would embark on the very type of rebuild that now seems far likelier. Instead, no-trade clauses in the contracts of veterans Sonny Gray, Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras threw a wrench into those plans. Gray and Contreras seemed unfazed by the idea of a youth movement and quickly let the team know they were content to remain in St. Louis. Arenado was open to trade scenarios but to a limited number of clubs. He wound up vetoing a trade to the Astros and remaining in St. Louis.

This time around, it seems overwhelmingly likely that at least one of those veterans will change hands. Gray candidly said after his final start that he has to consider trade scenarios this winter after talking to Bloom about the direction of the team. Contreras has said his preference is still to remain in St. Louis but he'll consider waiving his no-trade protection in the right scenario. Arenado has voiced his intent to be more open to a wider array of teams this time around.

That said, there are prominent hurdles when it comes to trading everyone from the group, and there's ample reason to wonder just how much -- if anything at all -- the Cardinals can get back in return for any of those pricey veterans. They're reportedly open to paying down some of the remaining salary (which will be a necessity), but if they really want to extract meaningful prospect value, there are more notable trade avenues to explore.

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Roberts: Roki Sasaki Will Be “Primary Option” In Save Situations

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Roki Sasaki will operate as the Dodgers’ “primary option” in save situations, manager Dave Roberts told reporters this evening (relayed by Jack Harris of The Los Angeles Times). Roberts hedged on calling the rookie righty his full-time closer, noting that they can’t ask Sasaki to pitch in every game.

The Dodgers tried to avoid using Sasaki last night in Philadelphia. L.A. took a 4-1 lead into the bottom of the ninth inning with a chance to take a 2-0 series advantage. Roberts called upon Blake Treinen to handle the ninth. Treinen promptly surrendered hits to Alec Bohm, J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos to put the tying run on second without recording an out. Roberts then turned to southpaw Alex Vesia with left-handed hitting Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler due up.

Vesia recorded two outs, including a force play on Castellanos at third when the Phils called for Stott to sacrifice. Roberts finally turned to Sasaki to face Trea Turner with runners on the corners and two away in a 4-3 game. He got a grounder to second to earn the save. It was the first time in his MLB career that he was called upon in the middle of an inning.

Sasaki has now finished three of the Dodgers’ four postseason games. He wrapped up the Wild Card Series by tossing a scoreless ninth inning to complete a 8-4 win over the Reds. That wasn’t a save situation but was essentially treated as such with a chance to lock down the series and get two off days before the start of the Philly series. Sasaki got his first save in Game 1 of the NLDS, tossing a scoreless ninth to close a 5-3 victory.

The bullpen is the biggest question as the Dodgers try to repeat as World Series winners. Vesia is their only traditional reliever who has been a lockdown presence this year. Treinen allowed 10 earned runs across 9 1/3 innings in September and certainly looked beatable in Game 2. Tanner Scott, the primary closer for most of the year, allowed a 4.74 ERA over 61 regular season appearances. The Dodgers haven’t used him in the playoffs yet. Converted starters Sasaki and Emmet Sheehan have gotten high-leverage work. Roberts also called on Tyler Glasnow for an inning and two thirds out of the bullpen in Game 1 of the NLDS. Glasnow would start Game 4 if the Phils can stave off elimination tomorrow night.

Poll: Should The Orioles Stick With Tony Mansolino?

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The Orioles saw their 2025 season more or less end before it started due to a brutal 15-32 record in their first 47 games. That start to the season saw manager Brandon Hyde get fired in mid May, while third base coach Tony Mansolino took over as the club’s interim manager. The Pirates decided to stick with Don Kelly long-term after he took over for Derek Shelton earlier this year. The Angels opted against keeping Ray Montgomery in the manager’s chair after he took up the mantle due to Ron Washington’s illness.

Mansolino has neither been extended nor dismissed, and Mike Elias remains in place as the club’s president of baseball operations, leaving no uncertainty in the front office to delay the club’s decision. Instead, Mansolino remains in limbo. Mansolino is set to be a candidate for the manager job in Baltimore, but he’s far from guaranteed to remain in the role and a wide-ranging search is expected. That makes some sense. With a young core that was in the playoffs in both 2023 and ’24, the Orioles are still in the middle of their contention window even despite this year’s disastrous 87-loss campaign. A quick turnaround is not only possible, but perhaps even expected given their collection of young hitting talent.

That could attract plenty of interesting candidates to the role, and the allure of hiring a big-name manager is obvious. After all, the Reds’ decision to hire Terry Francona last offseason got them to the playoffs in a 162-game season for the first time since 2013. The Rangers’ decision to hire Bruce Bochy a few years ago got the franchise its first ever World Series championship that same year. Joe Maddon’s second year as manager in Chicago ended the club’s infamous World Series drought. For a franchise like Baltimore that last won the World Series in 1983 and is still in the early years since emerging from a lengthy rebuilding period, it would be understandable if those success stories held some appeal.

Mansolino managed Baltimore to a 60-59 record after taking over for Hyde in spite of one of the weakest rotations in baseball, an offense that suffered from injuries and under-performance, and a sell-off at the trade deadline that shipped out valuable pieces like Ramon Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn. The Orioles had a 35-30 record under Mansolino through the day of the trade deadline, a 94-win pace that would actually represent an improvement not only over this season, but also the club’s 2024 record if maintained over a full season.

Of course, evaluating managerial performance is difficult to do from the outside of an organization. In a sample of just 65 games, it’s easy for one hot streak to change the perception of the stretch. Even Mansolino’s 119 games on the job can be looked at with something of an asterisk. After all, most teams would look a great deal better if you simply ignored their worst 43-game stretch of the year.

How do MLBTR readers think the Elias and the Orioles should approach their managerial vacancy? Did Mansolino do enough in his time managing the team this year to earn a longer opportunity, or should the team pivot to a fresh voice? Have your say in the poll below:

Marlins Notes: Infield, Outfield, Mack

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The Marlins didn’t make the playoffs in 2025 but are entering the winter with a bit more optimism compared to a year ago. Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald took a look at the Miami position player mix and provided some details on the club’s aspirations for the winter.

Jackson had previously reported that the club was likely going to be targeting a veteran bat this winter. In today’s reporting, he adds that first base is the most likely place for them to make that addition, though third base and the outfield corners are mentioned as other possibilities.

First base is a sensible spot to target, as the Fish don’t really have anyone locked in there. Seven different players spent some time at that spot in 2025, though Eric Wagaman got the bulk of the action. Wagaman hit just .237/.281/.375 for a wRC+ of 79. That indicates he was 21% below league average at the plate. Teams generally hope to get above-average offense out of the first base spot, so that’s a natural spot to look for more production.

The free agent class is headlined by guys like Pete Alonso, Josh Naylor and Ryan O’Hearn. The Marlins have occasionally thrown out notable multi-year deals but president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has largely kept his wallet in his pocket since getting his job. Two offseasons ago, his big signing was one year and $5MM for Tim Anderson. Last winter, it was $3.5MM for Cal Quantrill.

Perhaps he will get more aggressive with the Marlins coming off a respectable 2025 season, though it may be more likely he goes for guys who can be had on short-term deals such as Rhys Hoskins or Paul Goldschmidt. The non-tender deadline will shake loose a few more guys, with Nathaniel Lowe and Ryan Mountcastle some of the possibilities there. Christian Walker and Alec Burleson are speculative trade candidates.

Signing a third baseman is also a possibility but Jackson reports that the most likely scenario is Connor Norby and Graham Pauley battling for the job, or perhaps even forming a platoon. Pauley seems to have a decent floor as a strong defender. In 390 innings at the hot corner this year, he was credited with three Defensive Runs Saved and six Outs Above Average. Offensively, he slashed .224/.311/.366 for a wRC+ of 90. Perhaps there’s more to come with the bat. His 11.4% walk rate and 19.6% strikeout rate were both above average and he may have been held back by an unfortunate .262 batting average on balls in play. But even with offense close to average, he could be a valuable player thanks to the glove.

Norby, on the other hand, received grades of -5 DRS and -4 OAA at third this year. He didn’t make up for that with the bat, as he slashed .251/.300/.389 for a wRC+ of 90. However, he has slashed .293/.369/.493 at the Triple-A level going back to the start of 2023, which translates to a 123 wRC+. Bringing that kind of production to the majors would be great but he’ll be a bit of a question mark until that happens.

As for the platoon possibility Jackson mentions, Norby is right-handed and Pauley left-handed. Both players have reverse splits in their big league careers thus far but the sample size is still pretty small for both. Neither had huge splits in the minors but major league pitching might be a different story in the long run.

In the outfield, Jackson suggests the investment is likely to be small, suggesting it could be similar to the club signing Heriberto Hernández to a minor league deal last winter. They should have Kyle Stowers and Jakob Marsee in two spots, with room for guys like Hernández, Griffin Conine, Dane Myers, Joey Wiemer and others.

Behind the plate, Bendix already gave a public vote of confidence to Agustín Ramírez, despite his poor defensive metrics. If he is going to get another shot behind the plate next year, that could leave Joe Mack in Triple-A. Jackson reports that the club would prefer Mack to start the year in Jacksonville, but he will have a chance to earn a job in spring training.

Mack is one of the top catching prospects in the league. He’s not yet on the 40-man roster but would be eligible for this winter’s Rule 5 draft if not added, so the Fish will surely give him a spot in order to protect him from being selected. He’s considered a strong defender and he slashed .250/.320/.459 for a 108 wRC+ in 99 Triple-A games this year.

Promoting him to the majors seems justified at this point, but if Ramírez is going to get the bulk of the playing time as the Marlins continue to give him a shot to improve defensively, then perhaps Mack would be better served staying in Triple-A to get regular playing time.

It seems like there’s even less chance of a move up the middle, as Jackson reports the club is happy with the Otto López and Xavier Edwards tandem. López has produced subpar offense but the move to shortstop has worked well. He was credited with 7 DRS and 4 OAA at that spot this year. He can also steal 15-20 bases a year, adding to his value. Edwards got poor grades at short but has been great since kicking over to the other side of the bag. He tallied 12 DRS and 9 OAA at the keystone this year, with 27 steals and roughly average offense.

Photo courtesy of Eric Hartline, Imagn Images

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