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Free Agent Profile: Jeff Samardzija

By Tim Dierkes | November 18, 2015 at 12:16pm CDT

After an offseason trade to the White Sox, Jeff Samardzija struggled through his worst season in four years as a starting pitcher. He’ll still likely aim for a sizable multiyear contract in free agency.

Strengths/Pros

Samardzija is, first and foremost, a workhorse. He tossed 647 1/3 regular season innings from 2013-15, sixth-most in baseball. David Price is the only free agent with more during that span, and he only had eight additional innings. Samardzija has never been on the disabled list and has never missed a start due to injury. The 6’5″, 225 lb. righty seems built to last.

Samardzija has lower mileage on his arm than most of his fellow free agents, mainly because he spent a portion of his big league career as a reliever. As a 31-year-old with no DL time, Samardzija has still only thrown 1502 pro innings. Yovani Gallardo, who is a year younger than Samardzija, has 1901 innings. Johnny Cueto and Scott Kazmir have mileage similar to Gallardo. Ian Kennedy has 1590 2/3 innings, a total held down by 2009 shoulder surgery. Jordan Zimmermann and Wei-Yin Chen have lower mileage than Samardzija, but both had Tommy John surgery. Mike Leake, who recently turned 28, has 1115 career innings.

Samardzija has shown the ability to pitch at the front end of a rotation. He was his team’s Opening Day starter in each of the past three seasons, and earned an All-Star nod in 2014. That season, Samardzija posted a 2.99 ERA in 219 2/3 innings. His 4.7 K/BB ratio ranked 14th among qualified starters. He also brings the heat. From 2012-15, Samardzija averaged 94.6 miles per hour on his fastball, second only to Stephen Strasburg among those with 600 innings.

Samardzija turned the corner with his control in 2014, walking only 1.8 batters per nine innings. His 1.9 mark from 2014-15 ranks 15th among qualified starters, and many of those ranked above him are soft-tossers. From 2012-14, Samardzija showed an elite combination of skills and durability, ranking eighth in MLB with a 3.35 SIERA for those with 600 or more innings. During those three years, Samardzija was firmly operating in Jordan Zimmermann/Jon Lester territory. That valuation was borne out when Samardzija (along with Jason Hammel) netted the Cubs Addison Russell and Billy McKinney in a trade with the Athletics.

Weaknesses/Cons

There’s no tiptoeing around the fact that 2015 was a very rough season for Samardzija. He allowed the most hits and earned runs of any MLB starter, and he tied for the most home runs allowed in the AL. In his four seasons as a starter, his 6.9 K/9 was easily a career worst, as were his 4.96 ERA, 1.22 HR/9, and 39% groundball rate. In his 32 starts, he allowed five or more earned runs in 11 of them. Samardzija had a stretch in August where he gave up 22 earned runs in three starts. Zack Greinke didn’t give up his 22nd earned run until his 21st start of the season. A childhood fan of the White Sox, Samardzija’s season on the south side of Chicago did not go as planned.

In four seasons as a starter, Samardzija has posted a 4.03 ERA over 822 innings, and his only campaign below 3.81 was 2014. In each of the 2012, ’13, and ’15 seasons, Samardzija’s SIERA was significantly below his ERA. What has caused the big righty to post higher-than-expected ERAs in three out of his four seasons as a starter? Batting average on balls in play, home run per flyball rate, and issues pitching out of the stretch have all manifested in those three seasons, but none consistently. His All-Star season, 2014, was the only one where all three of those factors were normal. I asked SIERA creator Matt Swartz about this, and he concluded, “You have to figure he’s more likely to underperform his SIERA than the average pitcher, but nothing jumps out as a persistent problem.”

With the White Sox, Samardzija reduced the usage of his two-seam fastball in favor of the cutter, perhaps unsurprisingly. That pitch change mix supports the narrative that Samardzija can be fixed. On the other hand, why couldn’t Samardzija right the ship during the 2015 season?

Samardzija received and turned down a qualifying offer from the White Sox, so signing him requires draft pick forfeiture. Teams with unprotected picks in the teens such as the Red Sox, Diamondbacks, and Orioles could shy away.

Personal

Jeff Samardzija was born and raised in Merrillville, a town in Northwest Indiana. Inspired by his older brother Sam, Jeff played football, baseball, and basketball at Valparaiso High School. Tragically, Jeff lost his mother Debora during that time to a rare lung disease. With his father and brother in mind, Jeff looked at colleges close to home and landed a football scholarship to Notre Dame. Jeff was a star wide receiver for the Irish, but quietly pitched for the college’s baseball team as well. A baseball teammate noted Jeff resembled the shark from Finding Nemo, giving him a nickname that stuck. Since most teams thought he was destined for the NFL, Samardzija fell to the fifth round in the MLB draft in 2006. Cubs GM Jim Hendry was a good friend of Samardzija’s baseball coach Paul Mainieri, who urged Hendry to draft the greatest athlete he’d ever coached. Jeff agreed to a $250K deal with the Cubs, provided he could return to Notre Dame for his senior season.

After making seven appearances for Cubs minor league affiliates in Boise and Peoria, Samardzija had to decide whether to commit to the Cubs or enter the 2007 NFL draft as a potential first-round pick. Samardzija surprised the Cubs by working out a five-year, $10MM deal to commit to baseball. Samardzija ascended through the Cubs’ minor league system more because of his contract than due to success. As an up-and-down reliever, Samardzija briefly kicked around a return to football in April 2010. However, he had a decent year out of the Cubs’ pen in 2011, and then Theo Epstein’s regime took over the team’s front office. Samardzija removed his distractions that offseason and told Epstein he wanted to be a starting pitcher. He was awarded the Cubs’ fifth starter job out of camp in 2012, and his MLB career took off.

Market

We see Samardzija in a tier with Wei-Yin Chen and Mike Leake, a notch below David Price, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann, and Johnny Cueto. Comparing Samardzija’s contract with Chen’s will offer an interesting data point on whether teams are really moving past ERA. ERA makes Chen look better than Samardzija, yet Samardzija has a better reputation with the team executives to whom we’ve spoken, as well as superior skill-based stats. For some teams, Samardzija offers a chance at a #2 type starter coming off a down year, resulting in a potential bargain. Samardzija is an innings guy at worst, with the same high floor as Leake. Leake, however, doesn’t offer the same ceiling.

Though the draft pick loss will be an issue for some, a potential list of suitors for Samardzija includes the Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Astros, Angels, Rangers, Marlins, Nationals, Cubs, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Padres, Dodgers, and Giants. He could be a top choice for a team like the Tigers, who intend to add multiple starters and therefore may sit out the $100MM+ market. Former Cubs GM Jim Hendry currently works for the Yankees (at least for now), so there’s an obvious connection with Shark.

Expected Contract

In June 2014, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports reported Samardzija rejected a five-year extension offer from the Cubs worth slightly more than $85MM. A few months prior, Homer Bailey had signed an extension with the Reds for six years and $105MM, and that comparable may have compelled Samardzija to turn down the Cubs. The Cubs’ argument may have been that Bailey was younger than Samardzija, and that’s why he received a sixth year. That same question still exists: is there a team willing to sign Samardzija through 2020, his age 35 season? Given the list of teams above, as well as the pitcher’s durability, I think there will be enough suitors for Samardzija and his agents at Wasserman Media Group to get a fifth year on the open market. A slightly lower average annual value could bolster that case – Samardzija may cost $16-17MM per year, as opposed to $20MM+ salaries for guys like Rick Porcello and, presumably, Zimmermann. I’m predicting a five-year, $80MM deal for Samardzija.

Tigers Acquire Francisco Rodriguez

By Jeff Todd | November 18, 2015 at 10:43am CDT

The Tigers have officially acquired reliever Francisco Rodriguez from the Brewers. Infielder Javier Betancourt will head to Milwaukee in the swap. Detroit will also send a player to be named in the deal. Detroit’s announcement mentions that it, too, will receive a PTBNL, but both teams’ general managers have indicated that is not a straightforward aspect of the deal. (Twitter links.)

K-Rod was something of a forgotten man in early-offseason discussions of relief trade chips, but it always seemed likely that he’d change hands. After all, new Brewers GM David Stearns has clearly been tasked with rebuilding. Rodriguez is obviously not a long-term piece, and his backloaded contract still has $9.5MM left to go (including the buyout of a 2017 option).

Detroit will pay the entirety of the remaining obligation. But with $2MM going to the buyout and another $2MM of salary deferred, some of that cost will be pushed into the future. It’s also worth noting that the $6MM option will really only represent a $4MM decision for Detroit, and could well end up being exercised.

Though he’s now nearly 34 years of age, Rodriguez has continued to be a reliable force at the back of the pen. He ended the 2015 season with 57 innings of 2.21 ERA pitching, striking out 9.8 and walking only 1.7 batters per nine along the way. Rodriguez also permitted a meager 6.0 hits per nine, leaving him with an outstanding (and career-low) 0.860 WHIP on the season.

It’s true that Rodriguez benefitted from a .234 BABIP last year, and an even lower one in the season prior, but he’s carried a .271 mark for his career and also put up a strong 46.4% groundball rate. Of greater concern, perhaps, is that Rodriguez has been increasingly homer-prone as his arm speed has dropped. He lost a full mile per hour off his average fastball velocity between 2014 and 2015, falling below 90 mph for the first time. Then again, that didn’t stop him from producing a 14.0% swinging strike rate — a level he hasn’t reached since he was with the Angels.

Rodriguez fills the stated desire of Tigers GM Al Avila to add a proven closer. He locked down 38 wins last year and has racked up 386 saves over his career, leading all active pitchers. While the value of the save as a statistic is plenty debatable, there’s little reason to fear that Rodriguez will be ruffled by high-leverage situations. And his acquisition will reduce the team’s need to spend more on the open market (or on other trade targets) to add pen help, clearing more resources to dedicate to starting pitching.

Meanwhile, the Brewers will not only shed some salary but will pick up a useful young player in Betancourt, who reached the High-A level last year at age 20. He currently sits at 11th among Tigers prospects, in the estimation of MLB.com, which says that he profiles more as a second baseman but is still capable of handling shortstop. Betancourt looks to be a contact hitter and hasn’t yet shown himself to be much of a long ball or stolen base threat. He slashed .263/.304/.336 in 531 plate appearances over the 2015 season, striking out only 44 times against 29 walks.

Venezuelan journalist Augusto Cardenas first reported the swap via Twitter. James Schmehl of MLive.com reported the inclusion of a PTBNL on Twitter, and Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweeted that Detroit would take all of Rodriguez’s salary.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

David Ortiz To Retire After 2016 Season

By Jeff Todd | November 18, 2015 at 10:22am CDT

TODAY: Ortiz announced via Twitter that he’ll call it quits after the coming year. “Life is based on different chapters,” said Ortiz, “and I think I am ready to experience the next one in my life.”

YESTERDAY: Red Sox slugger David Ortiz plans to retire at the end of the 2016 campaign, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. That’s not exactly shocking news, as Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe notes on Twitter that Ortiz hinted at just that possibility over the course of the 2015 season.

Boston owes Ortiz $16MM for the coming season after he maxed out his vesting option escalators, but that’s a small price to pay for his recent levels of production. His deal includes another vesting/club option with a floating value for the 2017 season, but it appears that it won’t have any practical importance.

Ortiz turns 40 tomorrow, but has shown no signs of slowing at the plate. Despite his advanced age, he slashed an outstanding .273/.360/.553 last season and swatted 37 home runs in his 614 plate appearances. The Dominican native also became the most recent MLB player to enter the 500 home run club.

The coming season will be the twentieth in which Ortiz has seen action at the major league level. He spent six seasons with the Twins, putting up solid offensive numbers, but was released by the organization after a 2002 that was his best in Minnesota.

His career took off once he signed with the Red Sox. Ortiz began putting up huge numbers as soon as he came to Fenway, reeling off a five-year run over which he carried a .302/.402/.612 batting line and landed in the top 5 in AL MVP voting after every one of those seasons (though he never won the award).

It seemed like Ortiz was beginning his decline phase thereafter, as his average, OBP, and slugging percentage all dropped to the lowest levels of his Red Sox career in 2009. That proved, instead, to be little more than a blip, as his 149 OPS+ over the six seasons since amply attests.

There’s no question that Ortiz will go down as an important member of the Red Sox pantheon. He was, of course, a key member of the organization’s 2004, 2007, and 2013 championship clubs. If anything, he’s been even better in the post-season — especially the World Series, where he owns an unfathomable .455/.576/.795 batting line over 59 total plate appearances.

Really, the only debate at this point is whether Ortiz deserves a place in the Hall of Fame. If you focus only on his offensive numbers, that is rather an easy sell. But there are other considerations that complicate things. From an on-field perspective, Ortiz has almost exclusively been a DH, which obviously limits his overall value. And doubt remains about his involvement with performance-enhancing drugs, as he was reportedly among the players who tested positive for a later-banned substance back in 2003.

There’s plenty of time to debate Ortiz’s legacy and case for Cooperstown over the years to come. For now, we’ll look forward to one last season of admiring that swing, with its high, one-handed finish, and the towering drives that result.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Market Notes: Tigers, Fernandez, Chavez, Belt

By Jeff Todd | November 18, 2015 at 8:22am CDT

The Tigers have canvassed the trade market for late-inning relievers, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets, checking in on closers including Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller. But the team is “not comfortable with [the] asking prices” it’s been quoted, says Rosenthal. Of course, Detroit has also been tied to several of the best-available free agent relievers. If a swap isn’t in the offing, presumably the club will look to the open market to build out its pen.

Here are some more trade market notes:

There was some buzz yesterday surrounding the possibility of the Marlins dangling stud righty Jose Fernandez in trades after Craig Mish of Sirius XM tweeted that there is a “growing sentiment” inside and outside the organization that a deal could occur this winter. That’s hardly an indication that a deal is likely, but it wouldn’t be surprising for the Fish at least to listen. The Scott Boras client has three years of control remaining and doesn’t seem likely to sign an extension. While he’ll be rather affordable — MLBTR projects only a $2MM arbitration salary because of his limited innings last year — he’d also be a hotly-pursued trade piece that could potentially bring back a huge return of more controllable talent at or near the big league level.
Marlins sources downplayed the likelihood of a Fernandez deal to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. And club president David Samson told Jackson: “Some players are more likely to be traded than others. Jose fits in the latter category. He is a Marlin for at least the next three years and hopefully longer and we look forward to the start of the 2016 season.” As MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro notes on Twitter, it is also worth bearing in mind that the club is in the middle of important TV rights fees negotiations. Dealing away one of the club’s two major stars wouldn’t figure to aid the club’s leverage in those talks.
The Athletics have fielded “significant trade interest” in righty Jesse Chavez, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. Oakland could consider dealing the 32-year-old swingman now that free agent lefty Rich Hill has signed, Passan adds. MLBTR projects Chavez to earn $4.7MM in his final trip through arbitration.
After extending Brandon Crawford yesterday, there’s still some uncertainty surrounding the Giants’ other key, 4+ service-time infielder by that first name. First baseman Brandon Belt could also be an extension candidated, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports (Twitter links), although he adds that the sides may not have progressed very far yet in talks. But there’s still also a possibility that Belt will be traded, per Schulman. While other teams may be somewhat hesitant since Belt ended the year with concussion issues, there are no reasons at present to believe that he’ll be limited going forward. And his consistent production would undoubtedly draw plenty of interest.

Coppolella: “We Are Not Trading Freddie Freeman”

By Steve Adams | November 17, 2015 at 10:53pm CDT

The Braves have come under quite a bit of fire, with many stating that the team is tanking in order to accelerate its rebuild in the wake of last week’s Andrelton Simmons trade. Freddie Freeman’s name has come up in frequent trade speculation over the past week, Braves GM John Coppolella adamantly denied to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that the Braves will even entertain the notion of trading their first baseman.

“I cannot make it any more clear: We are not trading Freddie Freeman,” Coppolella said. “We are not. I’d give my right arm before we trade Freddie Freeman. It is not happening.”

While Twitter skeptics will undoubtedly have their fun by responding to that quote saying Freeman will be traded by this coming weekend, that type of on-record, absolutist statement is rare for a top-ranking baseball ops exec to make. (For instance, there’s a misconception that A’s president Billy Beane said last offseason that he wouldn’t trade Josh Donaldson, but the comments pertaining to Donaldson were made by an anonymous team official.)

Of course, a team could still completely bowl the Braves over with a trade proposal for Freeman that would put Coppolella and president of baseball operations John Hart in a tough position, but the strong likelihood in light of a statement of this magnitude is that Freeman will indeed remain in Atlanta. The reason for hanging onto Freeman, Coppolella explains, is that the “tanking” crowd has a fundamental misunderstanding of the Braves’ intentions.

“If we truly were going to tank, we wouldn’t have had [Erick] Aybar come back in the [Simmons] trade,” said Coppolella. “If we were trying to tank, we wouldn’t have signed A.J. Pierzynski. If we were trying to tank, we would have traded [Cameron] Maybin at the deadline last year, and we had plenty of offers.”

Coppolella maintains that the Braves strongly want to win in the near future and urges critics not to judge the results of the trades immediately upon their completion but rather to wait a couple of years. The Atlanta GM acknowledges that his club won’t win 100-plus games in 2016 but voices a strong belief that the team can win more next season than it did in 2015.

While Coppolella is adamant that there’s a method to all of the Braves’ perceived madness and staunchly rejects the idea of trading Freeman, Nightengale does write that further trades from Atlanta could be on the horizon. The team still hopes to shed the contracts of Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn — two players acquired to accelerate the alleviation of the financial burden that Chris Johnson’s contract had presented — and a strong offer for Maybin could pry him away from Atlanta as well.

Likewise, Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reported tonight that the Diamondbacks and Braves had discussions about Shelby Miller, but the D-Backs balked at the asking price, which Rosenthal says would’ve come from Arizona’s big league roster and could have been standout center fielder A.J. Pollock (links to Rosenthal on Twitter).

Athletics To Sign Rich Hill

By Steve Adams | November 17, 2015 at 8:33pm CDT

The Athletics have agreed to terms with free agent left-hander Rich Hill, reports Robert Murray of Baseball Essential. The deal is pending a physical. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets that it’s a one-year deal with a $6MM guarantee.

Yesterday, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reported that Hill was likely to sign a contract this week. Earlier tonight, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo listed the A’s as one of the teams in the mix for hill, noting that one official involved in the bidding considered Oakland one of the favorites (links to Twitter). Passan notes (Twitter link) that Hill turned down a more lucrative offer from another club due to the promise of a spot in the club’s rotation.

Few would’ve believed prior to — or even 75 percent of the way through — the 2015 season that a payday like this was in the cards for Hill, who at 35 years of age had spent the past several seasons bouncing around the league as a lefty reliever. Hill’s claim to fame dated all the way back to 2007, when he punched out 183 batters in 195 innings of 3.92 ERA ball for the Cubs as a 27-year-old. Hill didn’t replicate that success in 2008, though, and injuries and poor performance limited his role around the league for the next eight seasons.

Released from the Nationals’ Triple-A club this summer, Hill latched on with the Red Sox — the same organization with which he spent the 2010-12 seasons. Despite three years in the organization, Hill logged just 31 2/3 big league innings in that stretch, but a strong season at Triple-A led the 2015 Sox to give him a few starts at season’s end, and Hill capitalized in more emphatic fashion than most could’ve imagined.

In 29 innings (four starts) with the Sox, Hill allowed a grand total of five earned runs, striking out 36 batters against just five walks to complement a 48.4 percent ground-ball rate. Hill ditched his two-seam fastball and reduced the usage of his four-seamer in 2015 as well, trading in some of his 90 mph for a dramatic increase in curveballs. The results were outstanding, and the endgame will be a guaranteed payday that is six times greater than Hill’s previous career-high single-season salary of $1MM.

Hill joins a rotation picture led by ace Sonny Gray but also featuring veteran righty Jesse Chavez and a slew of younger arms including Jesse Hahn, Chris Bassitt, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin and Aaron Brooks. Former mainstays Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin will hope to return to the fold after missing each of the past two seasons due to arm surgery, and lefty Drew Pomeranz is also an option for Oakland manager Bob Melvin (though he had greater success working out of the bullpen).

For the Athletics, it’s a risk to give $6MM to a pitcher with such a limited track record and a wide-ranging history of injuries, but the team has quite a bit of pitching depth and can reasonably absorb the blow if Hill misses a significant portion of the season on the disabled list. And, if Hill is able to deliver even a handful of starts resembling his September work in 2015, he could turn out to be one of the biggest free-agent bargains of the offseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

International Notes: Vargas, Ona, Twins

By Jeff Todd | November 17, 2015 at 7:55pm CDT

As we await the outcome of the Twins’ negotiations with Korean slugger Byung-ho Park and the posting of fellow Korean All-Star Ah-seop Son, let’s take a look at some other news pertaining to the international market:

Another exciting young Cuban player could soon be on his way to a major league organization, according to a report from MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. 16-year-old infielder Miguel Vargas — the son of former Cuban star Lazaro Vargas — has defected from the island with his father. (The elder Vargas is no minor figure in the country: he played on two gold medal-winning teams and was the manager and director of the Havana Industriales.) As Sanchez notes, Vargas is one of several younger players who will look to become eligible for this July 2 period (if they can secure an exemption) or the one that follows it. While most prominent Cuban players who have joined the league in recent years were older and more established, we seem to be experiencing an increasing trend of younger players looking to sign at the same age as their counterparts in other parts of Latin America.
19-year-old Cuban outfielder Jorge Ona falls in between the veteran types and the just-eligible teenagers. As Ben Badler of Baseball America writes, Ona took the sixth spot on BA’s latest ranking of Cuban talent, and he’s the best player who has left the island in search of a big league job. Ona is still waiting to be declared a free agent, but Badler says he stands a good chance of qualifying to sign during the present signing period. There’s new video of the youngster available at the link.
Twins slugger Kennys Vargas — no known relation to the gentlemen of the same surname discussed above — has drawn interest from the Korea Baseball Organization, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports. Selling the rights to the 25-year-old slugger could help balance out the team’s prospective signing of Park, who would in some regards take the place of Vargas in the organization. Club VP of player personnel Mike Radcliff said that moving Vargas “wouldn’t be in play unless or until we got Park done.” Of couse, Vargas himself would need to agree to a move and reach a contract with a KBO club. The Twins have been among the most active MLB teams in sending players to Korea. (From a player’s perspective, there’s often quite a bit more money and fame to be found abroad. Eric Thames, for example, has turned into a KBO star.)
Meanwhile, 24-year-old Twins outfielder Oswaldo Arcia has told the team that he is not interested in going to Asia at this point. “The player has to agree,” Radcliff said. “He has no interest in doing that. He wants to be a major league star.” Arcia is coming off of a tough season — he was demoted and struggled at Triple-A — but has shown himself to be at least a competent major league hitter already. While he’s also a poorly-regarded defender, Arcia would still presumably draw interest from other big league clubs. He may well end up getting a chance elsewhere, as Berardino notes that he’s out of minor league options.

Giants Sign Brandon Crawford To Six-Year Extension

By Steve Adams | November 17, 2015 at 6:11pm CDT

6:11pm: Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News reports the breakdown of Crawford’s contract (via Twitter). He’ll receive a $1.2MM signing bonus $5.8MM in 2016 and $8MM in 2017 before earning $15MM per season from 2018 through 2021 — his would-be free-agent years.

4:56pm: The Giants announced that they’ve signed shortstop Brandon Crawford to a six-year contract extension. The new deal will buy out Crawford’s final two arbitration seasons and four free-agent years, keeping him in San Francisco through 2021 — his age-34 season. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Wasserman Media Group client will receive $75MM and a full no-trade clause in the deal.

Crawford, 29 in January, was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to receive $5.7MM this offseason in what would’ve been his second time through the arbitration process. If we assume something in the range of $8MM for his final arbitration salary, the Giants are buying out four free-agent seasons at a total of about $61-62MM — about $15.5MM annually.

In locking up Crawford, the Giants will secure one of the game’s premier shortstop defenders as he comes off an offensive breakout. Dating back to 2012, Crawford has tallied 42 Defensive Runs Saved — 19th in the Majors of any player at any position in that time. While he’s long been known more for his glove than his bat, Crawford’s isolated power (slugging minus batting average) has increased in each season of his Major League career, beginning at .092 in 2011 and topping out at this season’s hefty .205. Crawford slugged a career-best 21 homers in his age-28 season and tallied an excellent .256/.321/.462 batting line to complement his outstanding defense. Fangraphs valued his contributions at 4.7 wins above replacement, and Baseball-Reference weighed in at 5.6 WAR.

The Giants will hope that Crawford’s power outburst can be sustained, if not built upon, but it should be noted that Crawford doesn’t need to be a 20-homer bat at shortstop to justify the type of money committed to him in this deal. The average shortstop has been about 13 to 14 percent worse than the league-average hitter over the past four seasons, and Crawford’s bat exceeded those levels each year dating back to 2013 (when adjusting for his cavernous home park). Simply delivering better-than-average offense, relative to his positional peers, and continuing to turn in sterling defensive work should be enough for Crawford to justify, if not exceed the value of his new contract.

While Crawford, like any player who signs an extension of this nature, could have potentially earned more money by going year to year through arbitration and hitting the open market at age 30 in search of a five- or six-year deal through his age-36 campaign, he now has the security of knowing that he’ll remain with the only organization he’s ever known for the vast majority of his career. That carries plenty of weight for a player, especially one who was born and raised within about 45 miles of AT&T Park.

As for the Giants, they’ve undoubtedly done their homework in looking ahead at the players who joined Crawford in his service time bracket (between four and five years). Crawford would’ve easily led the shortstop class in free agency that season, as he’d be joined by the likes of Ruben Tejada, Danny Espinosa, Eduardo Nunez and Alexi Amarista. The Giants, with little in the way of big-league ready shortstops in the upper levels of their minor league system — most scouts feel that Christian Arroyo will need to move to third base, while Lucius Fox and Jalen Miller are probably at least four years away — have proactively addressed that need and locked down a fan favorite in the process.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Angels Sign Cliff Pennington To Two-Year Deal

By Steve Adams | November 17, 2015 at 5:10pm CDT

The Angels announced today that they’ve signed infielder Cliff Pennington to a two-year contract. Pennington, a client of Sosnick, Cobbe and Karon, will receive $1.5MM in 2016 and $2.25MM in 2017 for a $3.75MM guarantee, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports (via Twitter). Pennington can also earn up to $750K per season based on plate appearances, according to MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez (Twitter link).

Pennington, 31, split the 2015 season between the D-Backs and Blue Jays, batting a combined .210/.298/.281 in what was the worst offensive season of his eight-year Major League career. However, Pennington entered the 2015 season with a lifetime .248/.315/.350 batting line, giving hope that he can rebound to an extent at the plate while continuing to delivery sound defensive value by way of run prevention and positional versatility.

Pennington can competently play second base, shortstop and third base, grading out as an average or better defender at each infield position according to Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved. He’s a switch-hitter that has typically fared better from the larger (left-handed) side of the platoon, and while his speed hasn’t been as apparent in recent years, he averaged 19 steals per season in 2010-12 and has generally been a positive all-around contributor on the basepaths.

Pennington can provide the Angels with a backup plan to newly acquired Andrelton Simmons, as the team’s only backup option at shortstop had been Taylor Featherston, who is probably ticketed for Triple-A to open the 2016 campaign after surviving 2015 as a little-used Rule 5 utility option. The Angels currently have uncertainty at both second base and third base, so bringing Pennington into the fold gives them a bit of depth on the Major League roster, though they’ll almost certainly look to upgrade at one of the two spots. Johnny Giavotella handled second base duties in 2015 but is a poor defender with limited offensive upside, and the Angels may not want to count on Kyle Kubitza or Kaleb Cowart to immediately step into the picture at third base given their lack of experience.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Giants Agree To Minors Pact With Kyle Blanks

By Jeff Todd | November 17, 2015 at 3:10pm CDT

TODAY: The deal is complete pending physical, Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News tweets.

YESTERDAY: The Giants are “close to finalizing” a minor-league deal with free agent outfielder/first baseman Kyle Blanks, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports on Twitter. The oft-injured slugger is expected to have a solid shot at breaking camp with the big club, Shea adds.

Blanks, 29, has at times looked like a possible big league regular. There have been ups and downs, but he owns a useful .241/.322/.416 batting line in 933 career plate appearances at the major league level, spread widely over seven seasons.

There are other reasons to believe that Blanks is worth a roll of the dice. For one thing, he’s dominated the Triple-A level to the tune of a .300/.400/.568 slash line. And defensive metrics have generally viewed him as an average (if not slightly above average) defender in the corner outfield and at first.

The biggest difficulty to date has been health. Blanks has suffered from elbow, shoulder, and foot issues over the last five years, and most recently underwent surgical procedures on both Achilles tendons.

It appears that San Francisco has in mind to utilize Blanks as a right-handed-hitting bench bat, if he cracks the roster. He could theoretically spell Brandon Belt at first, though Buster Posey also figures to see some time there. It’s also possible to imagine Blanks spending time in left field — at least if the club does not add a big-name free agent to play there.

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