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Heyman’s Latest: Davis, Zobrist, Zunino

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Jon Heyman of CBS Sports takes a look at Pete Rose’s chances for reinstatement in his latest Inside Baseball column. The short version: he has no chance. Heyman has a lot to say on the topic, but it all boils down to a conservative mindset among baseball’s decision makers. While Rose, 74, is relatively harmless, the commissioner’s office won’t take the tiny risk associated with reinstatement. Commissioner Rob Manfred granted Rose a hearing in September and is expected to issue a ruling before the end of the year.

Here’s more from the column:

  • Orioles owner Peter Angelos is making a push to re-sign first baseman Chris Davis. The slugger is entering his age 30 season after posting 13 WAR and 126 home runs over the last three seasons. Davis hit .262/.361/.562 last year with 47 home runs. However, he’s sandwiched two superstar campaigns around a replacement level 2014, making him a high risk, high reward target in free agency. Heyman does not expect Davis to sign before talking with other clubs.
  • The Royals are unlikely to re-sign Ben Zobrist. The club acquired him to fill in for the injured Alex Gordon, then used him to replace injured Omar Infante. The club’s former second baseman will be back and presumably healthy next season. Zobrist’s defensive profile at second base also leaves something to be desired.
  • Marlins manager Don Mattingly hopes to bring pitching coach Rick Honeycutt and coach Tim Wallach with him from the Dodgers. However, L.A. hopes to keep both coaches. Honeycutt is a long standing member of the Dodgers’ coaching staff, but Wallach may search for a new job if he’s passed over for the open manager job.
  • Scouts are worried that Mike Zunino may have to overcome a psychological hurdle. He was widely viewed as unready for a promotion to the majors in 2013, and the Mariners have allowed him to scuffle through the last three campaigns. His biggest issue is a 32 percent strikeout rate which has led to a .193/.252/.353 triple-slash.

East Notes: DePodesta, Mets, Red Sox

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Here’s a look at the AL and NL East:

  • Mets exec Paul DePodesta told Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times that has has been contacted for about “half a dozen” GM vacancies since leaving the Dodgers.  However, the Mets’ vice president of player development and amateur scouting says that he only agreed to an interview once, only to later pull his name from consideration.  If he gets interest again this winter, there’s no guarantee that DePodesta will bite.  “It has never been about the title, especially after having it,” DePodesta said. “At some point, I aspired to that. I got there. Maybe it wasn’t all I expected it to be. I took a step back and said I wanted to do what I really enjoy. What I have here has been great. It satisfies what I’m looking for.”
  • Each of the previous three times Dave Dombrowski took over a franchise, he did so with something of a clean slate to work from, but that’s not necessarily the case this time, Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal writes.  The Red Sox already have several large payroll commitments with $150MM+ in guarantees on the books, a far cry from what he had with the expansion Marlins in 1991, the Expos in ’98, and the Tigers in 2002.  One key issue facing Boston is that they owe more than $50MM apiece to Rusney Castillo, Dustin Pedroia, Rick Porcello, Hanley Ramirez, and Pablo Sandoval, and all five players come with pretty serious question marks.
  • Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald wonders if the Red Sox should copy the Royals’ playbook, even though they have more purchasing power than KC.  Still, the Royals have managed to stock up on frontline starting pitchers with varying methods and with a strong bullpen behind them.  Silverman feels that finding a No. 1 pitcher needs to be Boston’s No. 1 priority, though they need to put a great deal of effort into bolstering their relievers as well.

NL East Notes: Marlins, Jennings, Mets

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In a must win situation tonight, Mets manager Terry Collins is pretty much sticking with the same lineup he used in Games 3 and 4, as Joey Nowak of MLB.com writes.  The Mets have been down 3-1 twice in their postseason history and neither series saw a comeback win, but they’re hoping things will be different this time around.

Here’s a look at the NL East:

  • A “source aligned with” recently fired ex-Marlins GM Dan Jennings told Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald that Jennings’ relationship with owner Jeffrey Loria deteriorated because they didn’t see agree on some lineup decisions. The key disagreement, it turns out, had to do with outfielder Marcell Ozuna. While Jennings was “more than eager” to play the 24-year-old (25 in November), Loria was losing confidence in him. The owner also pushed for Ozuna to play in right field rather than center at times because he was out of shape, but Jennings refused and did as he pleased in at least one instance, according to the source.
  • Former Mets GM Omar Minaya has his fingerprints all over the current roster and Joel Sherman of the New York Post sat down with him to discuss his impact on the World Series team.  When asked about which players have surprised him by making a big impact, the current league exec named Juan Lagares.  “We signed [Juan] Lagares as a shortstop [where he mainly played in the low minors from 2006-08] and he was just making too many errors,” said Minaya. “The glove started to impact his bat. He had great athleticism and we had to get him off of shortstop, but you never know if that is going to work. We thought he had the athleticism for center field. His defense was clearly getting to him. He took to center right away, which on one level wasn’t a surprise because we did athletic testing and he was with Jose Reyes and Carlos Gomez as the best. But you really never know how this stuff will go. Obviously, it went well.”  Minaya also mentioned right-hander Jacob deGrom, who was mainly a shortstop in college.
  • With the Nationals reportedly set to hire Bud Black, Thom Loverro of The Washington Times wonders why Dusty Baker is without a managerial job.  While Washington had its reasons to choose Black, Loverro notes that Baker owns an elite managing record while Black is a career losing manager.

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

Royals To Non-Tender Greg Holland

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The Royals will not tender an offer to injured reliever Greg Holland, sources tell Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.  The news doesn’t come as much of a surprise after Holland underwent Tommy John surgery in late September.  Heyman adds that the Royals would be happy to consider a two-year deal for Holland, as they did for Kris Medlen.

Holland was set to earn $11.3MM via arbitration, according to MLBTR and Matt Swartz’s projection model.  Even before Holland’s injury, there were questions as to whether the Royals would be able to retain the 29-year-old (30 next month).  When the former closer suffered a “significant” tear in his UCL, the decision unfortunately became much easier for KC.  Holland will miss most, if not all of the 2016 season.

The Royals were said to have asked Holland to get the elbow checked out on multiple occasions this season, but Holland’s preference was always to pitch through the discomfort. Ultimately, though, his September struggles became too significant, and with his fastball dropping from the mid 90s to the high 80s, Holland had no choice but to get checked out.

To this point in his career, the two-time All-Star has a 2.42 ERA with 12.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and 145 saves in 319 2/3 innings. All of those innings came as a member of the Royals, who selected Holland in the 10th round of the 2007 draft.  It’s still possible that the Royals and Holland could work out a new deal, but Kansas City will have to compete with everybody else if that’s their intention.  Holland and newly hired agent Scott Boras can be expected to scout the market for the best opportunity.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Phillies, Pirates, Orioles

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On this date in 2007, the Dodgers hired Joe Torre as their new manager, as Leo Panetta of NationalPastime.com writes. The former Yankee skipper was replaced in New York this week by Joe Girardi, who was also a candidate in L.A.

Here’s this week’s look around the baseball blogosphere..

Please send submissions to Zach at ZachBBWI@gmail.com.

Quick Hits: Rockies, Royals, Morales, Gordon, Zobrist, Cuba

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The Rockies should look at the Royals’ model of success, opines Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Both teams are mid-market clubs so they share the same constraints. In today’s game, that often means they can’t compete for top or even mid-tier free agents. Royals GM Dayton Moore told Saunders “You have to continually make the transition with two or three impact players [from the farm system], every single year. That means a position player, a starter and a bullpen piece.” Additionally, bold trades like the swap of Troy Tulowitzki are necessary too. The Rockies received Jose Reyes, Jeff Hoffman, Miguel Castro, and Jesus Tinoco in the deal. While Reyes is the most recognizable name, the trade was all about the three pitching prospects. Colorado absolutely must solve their rotation woes if they want to field a consistently good club.

  • The Royals success in the middle of the free agent market may be the trait rival teams attempt to replicate this offseason, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. We’ve already heard about numerous ways other clubs hope to emulate the Royals with athleticism, defense, and an elite bullpen as oft cited details. However, the club also brought in eight productive free agents for just $35.875MM. With a deep and talented free agent pool this offseason, we may see clubs eschew top targets like Jason Heyward in favor of multiple additions (Sherman lists Gerardo Parra, Darren O’Day, and Marco Estrada as an example).
  • Kansas City did get lucky in one regard, per Sherman. Their top target for designated hitter was Torii Hunter. Had he signed with the Royals, they would not have pursued Kendrys Morales. Instead, the former Angel and Twin led the club with 22 home runs and 106 RBI.
  • Sherman also notes that the Royals hope to re-sign Alex Gordon and Ben Zobrist. The club will not pursue Johnny Cueto.
  • The U.S. government and Major League Baseball have been working on a new system for would-be Cuban defectors to reach America, writes Michael S. Schmidt and Julie Hirschfeld of the New York Times. Presently, Cuban players usually have to survive dangerous journeys in order to defect. Smugglers often take a large percentage the player’s initial contract as payment. While creating a transparent process for moving from the Serie Nacional to state-side professional baseball would solve a human rights issue, there are still barriers. Most notably, any payment to the Cuban government would violate the U.S. trade embargo with the island. Any typical compensation scheme would either directly or indirectly send money to the Cuban government.

Cafardo On Kapstein, Amaro, Mattingly, Zobrist, Kapler

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In his latest column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe discussed the role of former Red Sox advisor Jeremy Kapstein. Newly installed club president Dave Dombrowski did not extend Kapstein’s contract. The former player agent had worked with the Red Sox for 14 years as a senior advisor of baseball projects. Kapstein once represented a number of top players and was among the first to use statistics in arbitration cases. He’ll seek a new role elsewhere.

Here’s more from the column:

  • Freshly minted first base and outfield coach Ruben Amaro Jr. is already familiar with many of Boston’s outfielders. While with the Phillies, he pursued Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and prospect Manuel Margot in trade negotiations for Cole Hamels. Former Phillies closer Brad Lidge noted that Amaro was comfortable spending time in the clubhouse with players, so he should adjust well to his new role.
  • Don Mattingly is the Marlins eighth manager in the last six seasons. The last manager, Dan Jennings, was recently let go after he was told he would return to his former job as GM. The club owes him about $2MM. Mattingly is said to have agreed to a four-year deal although financial details have yet to be disclosed. Marlins fans may recall the four-year, $10MM contract signed by Ozzie Guillen prior to 2012. It serves as a warning to Mattingly that a long term of contract or high AAV will not ensure job security in Miami.
  • As reported earlier this week, Ben Cherington has joined the sports management program at Columbia University. That hasn’t stopped the Pirates from pursuing him for a front office role. Cafardo wonders if Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro might show interest too. In my opinion, the Blue Jays job might not be a fit since Cherington walked away from a similar situation in Boston.
  • One AL executive worries about Ben Zobrist’s age. “Ben is 35 years old. He keeps in great shape and does the job, but he’s not someone you’re going to devote big dollars to over a long-term deal.” Of course, his agent, Alan Nero, believes a three or four-year deal should be well within reach. Nero and the Royals have not discussed an extension.
  • The Orioles will bring back pitching coach Dave Wallace. According to a source, manager Buck Showalter asked him to stay. The Orioles pitching staff had a rough season after outperforming their peripherals for a few years. Free agent Wei-Yin Chen will be difficult to replace if he signs elsewhere. The club also has to carefully manage top prospect Dylan Bundy. He’s missed most of the last three seasons after making a couple relief appearances as a 19-year-old in 2012. He’ll be out of options.
  • Team sources label Gabe Kapler has the leading candidate for the Dodgers managerial job. Kapler “speaks the same language” as president Andrew Friedman and they have an established working relationship. While Kapler has not managed in the majors, he “drew rave reviews” while managing with the Red Sox Single-A affiliate.

Rays Notes: Payroll, Archer, Bloom

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The Rays have noticed the Royals’ aggressive approach at the plate, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. President of baseball operations Matt Silverman noted the past trend towards plate patience which aimed at knocking out the opposing starter as early as possible. Now teams have taken a more aggressive tack in response to elite bullpens. “Today bullpens are incredibly formidable and a number of teams are adjusting and taking a more aggressive approach throughout and trying to hit the strikes they see.”

Here’s more from the Rays:

  • Topkins expects the Rays payroll to decline in 2016. He views the $72MM spent in 2015 as a ceiling. Since the club has 11 arbitration eligible players, it would seem they may need to cut costs in other areas. Asdrubal Cabrera’s one-year, $7.5MM deal is the only major contract coming off the books.
  • By qualifying for Super Two status, Rays ace Chris Archer has locked in a $25.5MM guarantee. Archer signed a six-year contract extension at the start of the 2014 season. If he had failed to qualify for arbitration this offseason, the guarantee on his deal would have reduced to $20MM.
  • Rays vice president Chaim Bloom is expected to remain with the club after interviewing for a couple open GM positions. However, Bloom has been increasingly linked to GM openings, so it wouldn’t surprise me if the Blue Jays considered him with regard to their newly vacated position. That’s only my speculation. The Rays are also likely to promote internally to fill the position left by former director of pro scouting Matt Arnold.

Poll: Should The Rangers Make Yovani Gallardo A Qualifying Offer

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If you aren’t associated with the Rangers in some way, chances are you haven’t wondered if starting pitcher Yovani Gallardo would merit a qualifying offer. Once a promising pitching prospect, Gallardo now features an unimpressive 90 mph fastball, 5.91 K/9, and 3.32 BB/9. In an age of power and pristine strikeout-to-walk ratios, Gallardo is easy to overlook. The Rangers reportedly plan to make the $15.8MM qualifying offer. But should they?

Statistically, there are a few angles to address. The 29-year-old has posted 2.0 to 2.6 fWAR in each of the last four seasons. That’s right around league average. It may feel off, but a relatively young, league average pitcher is generally worth around $12MM to $16MM a year on the free agent market. For example, Ervin Santana inked a four-year, $54MM deal with the Twins last offseason. Santana isn’t a perfect comp because he was coming off a 2.9 WAR season and has a flashier arsenal. He also had a much shakier track record.

Gallardo doesn’t eat innings like a top pitcher. In some ways, that’s both a positive and a negative. The Rangers were able to able to get the most out of him by removing him early. Only five of his 33 starts lasted more than six innings. Ten of his starts ran just five or fewer frames.

That usage put extra pressure on a shaky Rangers bullpen, but it also probably allowed him to post a solid 3.42 ERA in 184 innings. He had a 4.00 FIP based on his strikeout, walk, and home run rates. FanGraphs also tracks an ERA-based WAR called RA9-WAR. By that measure, Gallardo contributed over four wins to the Rangers’ season.

This brings to mind two important questions. Can Gallardo be easily managed by limiting the length of his starts? Evidence suggests he can, but the results are inconclusive. Additionally, how much does the extra strain on the bullpen detract from Gallardo’s value to his club? Obviously, that’s a very club dependent question. A team with a deep, talented bullpen might like using him in a short outing while clubs with less relief depth will prefer longer starts.

The evidence presented says that Gallardo is an unexciting, automatic qualifying offer candidate. However, there are signs that his stuff is on the decline. His strikeout rate has dropped in four straight seasons from 9.00 K/9 in 2012 to a middling 5.91 K/9 last year. His velocity is also down, and he may have experienced a lucky season with regard to his HR/FB rate. He continues to post a high ground ball rate, but he’s shown no signs of developing the excellent command that allows a Mark Buehrle or Brandon McCarthy to thrive.

Every year, a few players are hurt by the qualifying offer designation (refer back to Ervin Santana). Gallardo is exactly the kind of pitcher who could find it difficult to sign with a new club if he turns down the qualifying offer. He’s entering his age 30 season with a multi-year decline in stuff and peripherals. Despite health and consistent league average production, he doesn’t offer clubs much hope for upside.

Ultimately, I still think the worst case scenario for Gallardo is somewhere around a three-year, $28MM contract. Obviously, he could still sign for much more too. If the Rangers are happy to pay him $15.8MM on a one-year contract, then they have no cause for concern either way. But at some point, a player is going to bet on themselves by taking the higher AAV.

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