Cardinals, Mike Leake Nearing Agreement
TUESDAY, 9:23am: It’s possible that a deal could be reached by the end of today, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com tweets. The deal with the Cardinals is expected to be in the five-year, $75MM range and could include an option, a source tells Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (on Twitter).
The Cardinals gave Leake a strong offer last week and have been waiting for a resolution, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com tweets. Multiple sources also tell him that a deal is getting close.
8:50am: The Cardinals and Leake are close to agreement on a deal, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets.
MONDAY, 10:45pm: Leake is aiming for a five-year deal, per Cotillo (Twitter link).
10:10pm: There’s a “growing belief” that free agent Mike Leake will be signing somewhere very soon, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets. The Cardinals, he adds, appear to be a strong contender for his services.
MLBTR’s Steve Adams profiled Leake recently, explaining that his market appeal lies in a combination of age, health, the lack of a qualifying offer, and solid production. Both Adams and MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes have predicted five-year, $80MM contract for Leake, placing him among the 15 or so free agents with the greatest expected earning power.
Recently, the Dodgers were mentioned as a possibility for Leake after their agreement with Hisashi Iwakuma was 86’d. It’s not clear if the Astros have had substantive talks with Leake’s reps, but they do appear to be a fit for a veteran starter like Leake. Leake reportedly was ready to give a hometown discount to the D’Backs, but Tony La Russa recently called that match “probably unlikely” to happen. The Cardinals have been a logical landing spot for Leake all winter long, but some speculated that his asking price could be too rich for their blood.
In 2015, for the second consecutive year, Leake posted a 3.70 ERA. That marks three straight seasons with a sub-3.75 ERA and at least 190 innings. All but two months of those three years came while pitching his home games at an extremely hitter-friendly home venue: Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. Leake was able to thrive in large part due to his excellent control (2.3 BB/9 for his career) and his strong ground-ball rate. Leake’s 50.2 percent career mark in that regard is impressive, and it’s ticked upwards over the past two seasons, now siting closer to 53 percent.
Though he has just one season of 200-plus innings, Leake has been virtually injury free throughout his career. He landed on the DL late in the 2010 season with right shoulder fatigue but avoided the DL for the next five years, until a hamstring injury sidelined him for about two weeks in August. He dealt with some forearm tightness at season’s end, but it wasn’t serious and didn’t lead to major concern.
However, in an age where velocity and strikeouts are being emphasized more than ever, Leake doesn’t bring either to the table. His career-best K/9 rate is 2014’s 6.9, and he averaged just 5.6 K/9 in 2015. Leake has added some life to his fastball each year, but this season’s 90.9 mph average still rated below the 91.7 mph league average for starting pitchers.
Leake has owned right-handed hitters over the past two seasons, but he’s had less success against lefties, and that’s been a trend throughout his career. He’s yielded a .274/.324/.444 batting line to lefties throughout his big league tenure. Some of that should be taken with a grain of salt, as those numbers aren’t park-adjusted, but that’s still the rough equivalent of Evan Longoria’s 2015 batting line — hardly an ideal result.
NL Central Notes: Melancon, Cardinals, Leake
Free agent starter Mike Leake could be on the verge of signing somewhere soon. The Cardinals are believed to be a leading suitor for him, though it’s not clear if that will be his landing spot this winter. So far, we’ve seen multiple logical destinations for Leake fall out of the picture for various reasons.
Leake reportedly would have given the D’Backs a sizable discount in order to pitch close to home in Arizona, but Tony La Russa called that match “probably unlikely” to happen after the Shelby Miller acquisition. The Giants could have moved to retain Leake, but that’s no longer a real possibility after signing two high-priced free agent starters. At this stage of free agency, the Cardinals certainly appear to be one of the best fits for the 28-year-old.
Here’s today’s look at the NL Central:
- Could the Pirates still move Mark Melancon this winter? Adam Berry of MLB.com asked Pirates GM Neal Huntington about what the Charlie Morton trade means for Melancon’s future in Pittsburgh. “We’ve never had to trade Mark,” Huntington replied. “It’s always been [a question of] if we’re better with him with us, or if we think it’s a better move for the organization to move him elsewhere, and that still applies.” In short, Berry feels that the Bucs are likely to keep Melancon, though they won’t say no if they’re blown away with the perfect offer.
- The free agent market has shifted to a tier including the likes of Mike Leake, Scott Kazmir, Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy, and Wei-Yin Chen, but the Cardinals are only really interested in the first two because of their aversion to giving up a draft pick, as Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Between Leake and Kazmir, the Cards are probably more interested in Leake. Leake is younger, has proven himself to be a strong pitcher in the NL, and has been one of the best hitting pitchers in the league as well. Leake batted quite well early in his career, and while he had his worst season at the plate in 2015, he’s an overall .212/.235/.310 hitter in the Majors. That’s obviously not good, relative to the rest of the league, but it’s not bad for a pitcher.
- Do the Cardinals really need to sign a pitcher to anything more than a one-year deal given the arms they already have in-house? Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com says the Cardinals feel that you can never have too much pitching and therefore they are not ruling out a multi-year deal for a strong starter. The Cardinals could find themselves with a pitching logjam in 2017 thanks, in part, to Lance Lynn‘s return, but the Cards are also aware that Lynn and Jaime Garcia will be free agents after that season. It might make sense for the Cardinals to deal with a bit of a logjam in ’17 in order to have options beyond that campaign.
Rosenthal On Kazmir, A’s, Fernandez, Dodgers
Re-signing Alex Gordon would help the Royals hedge against other stars possible leaving in the future, but that commitment could also take away the money needed to keep them, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. Five notable members of the defending World Champs – Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, and Wade Davis – can hit the open market after the 2017 season. All five can be costly for KC and that is certainly a consideration for the club as they weigh the Gordon situation.
Here’s more from Rosenthal’s column:
- The A’s one-year, $4.25MM deal with Henderson Alvarez takes them out of the mix for free agent Scott Kazmir, sources tell Rosenthal. Alvarez will now compete for a spot in Oakland’s rotation with right-handers Jesse Hahn and Jarrod Parker and left-hander Sean Manaea. On Monday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale identified the A’s as a finalist for Kazmir alongside the Royals, Orioles, Cardinals, Nationals, and Astros. Kazmir, 32 in January, recorded a 3.33 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 and a 43.4 percent ground-ball rate from 2014-15 — the duration of a two-year, $22MM contract initially signed with Oakland.
- The Dodgers are staying in touch with the Marlins on Jose Fernandez, but it’s still hard to see a deal taking place, Rosenthal writes. Unfortunately for the Dodgers and other teams after the young ace, the Marlins’ expectations for a return packing only got higher after the Shelby Miller trade, sources tell Rosenthal. Of course, that’s saying a lot since the bar has been set high all winter. high expectations from the start. Conversely, teams are concerned about how many innings Fernandez will pitch in 2016 and beyond. “Makes it hard to price it correctly for both sides,” one source with knowledge of the Dodgers/Marlins talks said. For his career, Fernandez has posted a 2.40 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 44.6 percent ground-ball rate. There’s little question that he’s one of the game’s most effective starters, with his low cost and youth making him one of the most intriguing assets in baseball.
- The Padres sent several club officials to Japan in November, but they won’t be a serious player for right-hander Kenta Maeda, sources tell Rosenthal. The Padres went to Japan in order to “introduce themselves in a market where they previously had only a minimal presence,” Rosenthal writes, but apparently they were not gunning hard for the Hiroshima Carp star.
Royals Showing Interest In Gerardo Parra
The Royals continue to be among the teams showing interest in free agent outfielder Gerardo Parra, sources tell Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter). It has been suggested in the past that Parra could be a Plan B for the Royals in the event that they could not retain Alex Gordon.
If the Royals want to sign Parra, it stands to reason that they’ll have to make a considerable multi-year commitment to him. Earlier this month it was reported that Parra had multiple three-year offers in hand but he was holding out in an effort to land a four-year deal. At the age of 28 (29 in May), a four-year deal is not an unreasonable request.
Parra slashed .291/.328/.452 in 2015 and he boasts a strong reputation as a defensive outfielder, though it should be noted that his fielding statistics took a big step backward last season. Parra made his name when he put up an outstanding defensive campaign with the D’Backs back in 2013. Moving into a full-time role, he graded out as one of the game’s premium outfielders according to both UZR and Defensive Runs Saved . But last season’s metrics were more of the average variety, and Parra was decidedly in the red in 2015.
Parra’s struggles against left-handed pitching prevent him from being a regular, but many have figured that he could still get a strong payday as something between a regular and a fourth outfielder. Earlier this offseason, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes pegged Parra for a three-year, $27MM deal. Back in August, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd brought up names like comps include Melky Cabrera (three years, $42MM), Nick Markakis (four years, $44MM), Shane Victorino (three years, $39MM), and Angel Pagan (four years, $40MM) as potentially useful comps. However, his weak play in the final 55 games of the season with the Orioles have probably depressed his value somewhat.
Giants GM Bobby Evans On Left Field, Bullpen
Last week, the Giants surprised many when they inked starter Johnny Cueto to a six-year, $130MM deal. Now that the rotation has been bolstered, GM Bobby Evans says that he’s moving on to addressing the team’s left field situation.
“I given our commitments in pitching, I think now is a good time to look at left field and versatility there has value for us,” Evans told MLB Network Radio (audio link). “We look at [Gregor] Blanco and, he’s been our starting left fielder in the World Series and our starting center fielder in the 2014 World Series so we don’t want to dismiss his ability to help us for a ton of at-bats and a ton of games but if we could put him more in a fourth outfield spot, we feel like we would be stronger.”
When discussing the possibility of further additions this winter, Evans pointed out that the team still has “flexibility” to spend, even after the significant contracts given to Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. The GM says that the Giants will be open to exploring both the free agent market and the trade market for ways to make the team better, but it doesn’t sound as though the bullpen will be among their top priorities.
“You always want to find a way to get better in the bullpen, [but] I think it’s the one area of the farm system that’s most ready to help us,” said Evans. “We saw that in [Hunter] Strickland and Josh Osich. Osich, in many ways, replaces Jeremy Affeldt in the fact that he can pitch to both lefties and righties and pitch in any point in the game. But, with that said, we’re at least going to keep our antennas up. It’s not where I want to spend my next dollar, necessarily, because we have depth in the minor leagues, but I recognize that you win with a good bullpen and we need to make sure we’re strong there.”
Ultimately, we shouldn’t expect to see the Giants make a run at a higher-priced free agent reliever such as Tyler Clippard. By the same token, after dropping big bucks on a pair of free agents already this winter, it’s safe to say that the Giants aren’t going to get involved on an expensive left fielder like Justin Upton, unless his market takes a surprising and drastic nosedive.
Central Notes: Phillips, Reds, Pirates
While a deal involving Brandon Phillips between the Reds and Nationals appears unlikely, it is not officially dead, according to MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. As of right now, both teams will wait and see if Phillips changes his mind and consents to the deal, but Washington could wind up taking care of its second base situation differently in the interim.
The two sides appeared to have a deal worked out last week, but Phillips reportedly wanted an extension as a condition of his approval of the trade. Since he’s already owed $27MM over the next two seasons, the Nats weren’t eager to meet those demands. As a player with 10-and-5 rights, the ball is in Phillips’ court on that matter.
Here’s more out of the Central divisions:
- The Pirates are still searching for a left-handed hitter to complement Mike Morse at first base, GM Neal Huntington told MLB Network (Twitter link via Adam Berry of MLB.com). Last week, the Bucs acquired corner infielder/outfielder Jason Rogers, a player who could conceivably give them additional first base depth, but they’re apparently still looking for an impact option that can hit from the other side of the plate. In 2015, Morse hit .231/.313/.336 with five homers in 256 plate appearances for the Marlins and Pirates.
- The Tigers, meanwhile, are probably done shopping, as Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press writes. On Saturday, the Tigers signed Mike Aviles to a one-year deal reportedly worth $2MM plus incentives. That pact could wind up being the last big league roster move Detroit makes this offseason. The Tigers set out to bolster their pitching and they have already accomplished that. Many wondered if they would make an impact move in left field, but it appears that they will roll with a mix of Anthony Gose, Cameron Maybin, Tyler Collins, and Aviles at the position.
- Over the weekend, it was reported that the Royals might be more interested in free agent hurler Wei-Yin Chen than other available options such as Yovani Gallardo and Scott Kazmir.
Padres Sign Buddy Baumann To Major League Deal, Designate Josmil Pinto
The Padres have signed left-handed pitcher Buddy Baumann to a Major League contract and designated catcher Josmil Pinto for assignment, according to a team announcement. The Padres had claimed Pinto off waivers from the Twins earlier this month.
Baumann, 28, has spent his entire career to date in the Royals organization, having been Kansas City’s seventh-round pick back in the 2009 draft. The Missouri State product has never reached the Major Leagues, though he does have outstanding numbers at the Triple-A level across the past three seasons. In that time, Baumann has a 3.04 ERA with 9.1 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 in 216 innings of work. Baumann has worked in both the rotation and the bullpen at Triple-A Omaha, though he spent the bulk of 2015 in a relief role, with just six starts and 28 relief appearances. In 2015, Baumann held opposing lefties to a comically feeble .148/.225/.222 batting line. His 2013-14 numbers against lefties weren’t quite as dominant, but he still held same-handed opponents to an OPS around .600 in that time. Baumann could compete for a spot in the Padres’ bullpen, though he can also be optioned to Triple-A if he doesn’t make the club out of Spring Training.
Pinto, 27, was once viewed as Minnesota’s possible catcher of the future due to his outstanding bat in the minors and in his first September call-up back in 2013. Pinto raked at Double-A and Triple-A in ’13, hitting a combined .309/.400/.482 with 15 homers before earning a September promotion and announcing his presence with a .342/.398/.566 performance in that month-long audition. Pinto, however, was always viewed as a poor defender behind the plate, so when his bat began to slip in 2014 and 2015, his future was called into question. He hit just .219/.315/.391 in 57 games with the Twins in 2014, and his 2015 season was marred by concussions and poor performance at the Triple-A level, where he batted just .228/.304/.354 in 68 games.
Rangers Sign A.J. Griffin To Minor League Deal
The Rangers announced on Monday that they have signed former Athletics right-hander A.J. Griffin to a minor league contract with an invite to Major League Spring Training. The soon-to-be 28-year-old Legacy Agency client hasn’t pitched since 2013 due to 2014 Tommy John surgery and a 2015 shoulder injury.
Prior to those injuries, Griffin was on the verge of establishing himself as a potential long-term cog in Oakland’s rotation. After posting a 3.06 ERA with 7.0 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 in 82 innings as a rookie in 2012, Griffin rattled off 200 innings of 3.83 ERA ball in 2014, averaging 7.7 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9. He’s very much a fly-ball pitcher, as evidenced by the 33.7 percent ground-ball rate he yielded across those two seasons and the fact that he led the AL with 36 homers allowed in ’13. That skill set may not be as well suited for Arlington’s Globe Life Park as it is for Oakland’s O.Co Coliseum, but a healthy Griffin would nonetheless be a nice option for the back of the rotation. Colby Lewis, for instance, has enjoyed a nice five-year run with the Rangers despite never having topped 38 percent with his ground-ball rate.
Griffin will look to compete for a spot in the Rangers’ rotation behind Yu Darvish, Cole Hamels, Derek Holland, Martin Perez, Chi Chi Gonzalez and Lewis, who reportedly agreed to a new one-year deal with Texas last week. While there are plenty of established names in that mix, Darvish is recovering from Tommy John surgery, Perez returned from that same operation late in 2015 and Holland has been beset by shoulder and knee injuries over the past two seasons. Griffin has three years and 34 days of big league service, so if he makes it back to the Majors next season, he could be controlled through at least 2018 and possibly 2019, depending on the amount of service time accrued in 2016.
Pirates Acquire Kyle Lobstein
The Pirates announced that they have acquired left-hander Kyle Lobstein from the Tigers in exchange for cash considerations.The Tigers had designated the 26-year-old for assignment last Friday in order to clear a spot on the roster for newly signed utility man Mike Aviles.
Since making his Major League debut with the Tigers in 2014, Lobstein has had a fairly significant role with the club, totaling 103 innings across 20 appearances, 17 of which came out of the rotation. His results haven’t been great — a 5.33 ERA, 5.2 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 — but he has capably soaked up innings as the Detroit rotation battled through injuries. He’s struggled due to an inability to miss bats, as evidenced by the low strikeout rate and the fact that he’s yielded 113 hits in those 103 innings.
While there are certainly some unimpressive elements there, Lobstein could be effective in a different role. He’s displayed the ability to throw multiple innings as a reliever, and lefties have batted just .234/.307/.321 against him over the course of his relatively brief career. The Pirates (and perhaps other clubs, as well) may have been drawn to that trait and been intrigued by Lobstein’s 3.19 FIP and 3.41 xFIP against left-handed pitching, believing him capable of working as a relief option. His 49.7 percent ground-ball rate undoubtedly piqued Pittsburgh’s interest as well, as the Bucs have shown an affinity for pitchers that can keep the ball on the ground. And, his superior Triple-A numbers — 4.08 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 in 236 innings — may simply have made him an appealing depth option for the Pirates, especially when weighed against the minimal cost of acquisition.
Lobstein will land in what appears to be a favorable situation. The Pirates have had a good bit of success in elevating the stock of newly acquired pitchers in recent seasons, and the club’s aggressive infield shifting will mesh nicely with his ground-ball tendencies should Lobstein log significant time in the Majors in 2016 and beyond. He’s totaled just over one year of Major League service time, so the Pirates could conceivably control him through the 2020 season if he establishes himself as a consistent Major Leaguer in some capacity.
Mets Eyeing Span, Venable, De Aza In Search For Outfield Bat
The Mets are known to be interested in adding a left-handed bat that can at the very least serve as a platoon partner for right-handed-hitting Juan Lagares, and ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports that they’re interested in Denard Span, Will Venable and Alejandro De Aza to fill that void. Span has been connected to the Mets multiple times in the past, and the reportedly plans to meet with his camp in January. Venable and De Aza, however, have not been connected to the Mets beyond speculation, to this point. (De Aza, in fact, has scarcely been mentioned on the rumor circuit in connection to any club this winter.)
Crasnick hears that Span is the “preferred choice,” but questions about his health and agent Scott Boras’ stated desire to land a multi-year deal for his client are complicating that picture right now. Newsday’s Marc Carig did report fairly recently that the Mets aren’t closed off to the idea of giving Span multiple years, though I’d imagine they’ll need to see him prove his health in next month’s showcase for that scenario to play out. Span missed much of the season with lingering issues from sports hernia/core muscle surgery last offseason and ended up having hip surgery this offseason as well.
When healthy, Span has proven to be a quality player on both sides of the ball. Over the past four seasons (one in Minnesota and three in D.C.), Span has batted a combined .290/.344/.402, averaging six homers and 27 steals per 162 games played. Of course, a concussion back in 2012 and this past season’s injuries have limited him to an average of 122 games per season in that time. Defensive metrics have traditionally been bullish on Span, though his UZR and DRS grades this season dipped significantly as he battled through injuries over the course of the season. It strikes me as unlikely that Span would be on board with a straight platoon; though his numbers are better against right-handed pitching, he’s still posted a respectable .274/.351/.364 batting line against lefties in his career (though he’s struggled against them a bit more in 2013 and 2015).
Venable and De Aza, on the other hand, are more familiar with platoon work. Venable is a career .256/.324/.422 hitter against righties and has had his bottom-line numbers suppressed, somewhat, by calling Petco Park his home stadium for nearly all of his career. (Of course, New York’s Citi Field isn’t exactly a hitters’ paradise in its own right.) Venable has drawn positive marks in center over the course of his career, though he’ll play next season at age 33 and isn’t a premium defender in the first place, so something like league-average or even slightly below-average defensive work is probably a more realistic expectation than plus glovework.
De Aza, 32 in April, is a somewhat similar tale. His lifetime .274/.338/.418 line against righties is solid, if unspectacular, and his recent work in center field hasn’t been viewed favorably through the lens of DRS and UZR. (He also hasn’t played center with any sort of regularity since 2013, when he posted a -18 DRS mark.) De Aza, though, was more productive at the plate in 2015 than Venable, hitting .278/.351/.448 against right-handed pitching. I’d imagine that either Venable or De Aza could be had on a one-year deal or perhaps a two-year deal with a lower annual value — something like $10-13MM in total, as we’ve seen from Rajai Davis, Nate McLouth, David Murphy and, most recently, Chris B. Young.
It’s also worth noting that Crasnick gets the sense (Twitter link) that the Mets aren’t particularly enamored with Gerardo Parra. New York may believe that Parra’s defense has slipped in recent years, per Crasnick, and he’s also seeking a multi-year deal worth more than the Mets are comfortable paying. Parra, reportedly, has received three-year offers and is hoping a club will push to a fourth guaranteed season on a deal. If that’s the case, it does seem more likely that it’d come from a club that planned on utilizing him in an outfield corner as opposed to in center field.