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Rangers Trade Dane Dunning To Braves

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The Rangers announced they’ve traded Dane Dunning to the Braves for minor league reliever José Ruiz and cash. Atlanta designated Jesse Chavez for assignment to clear a spot on the 40-man roster. Ruiz was outrighted last month. Texas’ roster count technically drops to 38 but will climb back to 39 tomorrow when they select the contract of first baseman Rowdy Tellez.

It’s a salary dump for the Rangers. Dunning has fallen out of favor over the past two seasons. The former first-round pick tossed 172 2/3 innings of 3.70 ERA ball during the World Series season two years ago. He only managed a 5.31 mark in 95 frames last season. While Texas tendered him a contract, Dunning had to take a very rare arbitration pay cut to ensure the Rangers didn’t move on.

That didn’t get him a spot on the Opening Day roster. The 30-year-old Dunning gave up 10 runs in 11 innings during Spring Training. Texas waived him at the end of camp in the hope that another team would take his $2.66MM salary. No one bit, and he has spent most of the year in Triple-A.

Dunning was called up in April, again cleared waivers in May, and was selected back onto the roster last month. He has been limited to five MLB appearances, all out of the bullpen, and has allowed four runs across 10 2/3 innings. He has worked as a starter in the minors, pitching to a 4.47 ERA over 46 1/3 frames in the Pacific Coast League. Dunning has punched out 24% of Triple-A opponents against a 9% walk rate.

The Rangers were unlikely to give Dunning anything more than mop-up work. He had fallen behind Patrick Corbin, Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker at the back of the rotation. Texas expects to get Jon Gray back from a wrist fracture in the next week or two. Dunning has a much better path to a rotation spot on an Atlanta team that has been decimated by injuries.

They’re without Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, Reynaldo López and AJ Smith-Shawver. They’ve given 15 starts to Bryce Elder, who has a near-6.00 ERA. Davis Daniel made his first start of the season just before the All-Star Break. He’s the nominal fourth starter behind Spencer Strider, Grant Holmes and Elder. They pressed 20-year-old Didier Fuentes into MLB work for which he was clearly not ready. He’s now back in Triple-A.

Dunning has been a capable back-end starter in the past. It seems he’ll work in long relief initially, as the Braves tabbed swingman Joey Wentz to start on Saturday against the Yankees. Dunning still has an option remaining. He’ll be eligible for arbitration at least once more. There’s a decent chance the Braves will non-tender him regardless, but they didn’t give up anything of note to acquire him.

Ruiz, 30, is a journeyman reliever. He managed a 3.71 ERA while striking out 24% of opponents over 52 appearances for the Phillies last season. Things went off the rails this year, as he has allowed 17 runs in 16 1/3 MLB innings. Atlanta claimed him off waivers from Philadelphia but waived him themselves after he gave up three runs in one inning during his second appearance with the club. He has since tossed 7 2/3 innings of four-run ball in Triple-A. The Rangers assigned him to their top affiliate in Round Rock.

The Phillies and Ruiz agreed to a $1.225MM arbitration salary. The Braves assumed that when they claimed him. Atlanta is paying down an unspecified portion of that sum. Dunning is owed roughly $1MM for the rest of the season, while Ruiz is owed about $450K. A direct swap without cash considerations would’ve knocked about $550K off the Rangers’ books. They’ll save a bit more than that depending on the amount of money that the Braves are covering.

It’s a small amount by MLB standards. However, as MLBTR pointed out in tonight’s preview of the Rangers deadline for Front Office subscribers, Texas should be motivated to cut spending around the fringe of the roster. Ownership clearly wants the front office to remain below the $241MM base luxury tax threshold. RosterResource calculated their CBT number a little above $234MM before tonight’s deal. That’s an unofficial estimate that doesn’t account for incentives that’ll add to the team’s tax number as they’re unlocked down the stretch.

The Rangers need to add at least one impact bat if they’re going to make a playoff push. They should probably acquire multiple hitters and would benefit from bringing in a power arm at the back of the bullpen. Dunning was the most obvious player for a pure salary dump as deadline season approaches. Gray, Adolis García and Jonah Heim could be candidates for a payroll-cutting trade as well, though they have (or will have, in Gray’s case) a bigger role than Dunning was playing.

As for Chavez, he’ll go back on waivers for the third time this year. There’s a good chance he’ll clear, elect free agency, then re-sign with Atlanta on a minor league contract. The 41-year-old righty has given up eight runs in as many innings over four MLB appearances this season. He has a 2.05 ERA across 30 2/3 innings in the minors.

Image courtesy of Kirby Lee, Imagn Images.

Draft Signings: Braves, Angels

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The Cardinals announced a deal with fifth overall pick Liam Doyle this morning. A few other notable recent draft signings (all first reported by Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo):

  • The Braves reached underslot deals with first and second round picks Tate Southisene and Alex Lodise. Southisene signed for roughly $2.62MM against a near-$4MM slot value; Lodise signed for $1.3MM, around $200K below slot. That enabled the Braves to go above slot for fourth and fifth round picks Briggs McKenzie and Conor Essenburg. McKenzie received a near-$3MM bonus that’ll be the highest in Atlanta’s class. Baseball America ranked the 6’2″ lefty as the #46 prospect in the class pre-draft, putting him more as a top of the second round talent. The Braves were able to slide him to the fourth because of the bonus money. Southisene, a right-handed hitting prep infielder, placed 43rd on BA’s rankings.
  • The Angels agreed to a $2.0772MM deal with second-rounder Chase Shores, Collazo reports. That’s essentially slot value for the #47 pick. Shores, an LSU product, is a 6’8″ right-handed pitcher who posted a 5.09 ERA over 63 2/3 innings in his draft year. He recorded 70 strikeouts and issued 31 walks. Baseball America had him 86th on their rankings, praising his fastball-slider combination but raising questions about his changeup and control. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel had him as the #68 player in the class. Based on the Angels history, it seems likely that they’ll try to fast-track Shores to the big leagues as a reliever.

Trade Deadline Outlook: Texas Rangers

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The Rangers have spent most of the season hovering around .500. They have as strong a 1-2 rotation punch as any team in MLB. Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi give Texas a good chance to win every time out. They have little margin for error with a lineup that has struggled to score runs for a second straight year. Assuming the Rangers find themselves in position to buy, they need to swing for an impact bat. They still have much of the personnel from the 2023 team that mashed its way to a championship, but most of the hitters from that club have gone backwards over the past two seasons.

Record: 48-49 (18% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entrants in this series, see this post.

Buy Mode

Potential needs: First base, catcher, right field, power bullpen arm

The Rangers enter the second half tied for 22nd in MLB in scoring. They are eighth in runs scored over the past month, so things have been better lately, but they're still hitting .243/.322/.387 even over this recent stretch. They're in the bottom third in average, on-base percentage and slugging for the season. There have been far too many easy outs.

This is not a one-year problem. Texas had a .238/.305/.380 team batting line in 2024. They tried to remedy that -- with a particular focus on their woeful numbers against fastballs -- by signing Joc Pederson and acquiring Jake Burger. The offense hasn't gotten any better, at least in part because both Pederson and Burger have played poorly.

President of baseball operations Chris Young and his staff are back to the drawing board. The Rangers have had by far the worst designated hitter production (.160/.241/.265) in MLB. Most of that falls on Pederson, who has hit .131/.269/.238 in 46 games. He has been out nearly two months with a broken hand and is still weeks away from a rehab assignment. They've mostly used catcher Jonah Heim at DH in Pederson's absence. He's hitting .219/.262/.346 across 280 plate appearances. The Rangers need to find someone who can draw into that position.

Only 21 players have taken at least 150 plate appearances at the DH spot this season. Of that group, Marcell Ozuna is the most obvious trade candidate. He's playing on a $16MM salary that might be too rich for Texas, and he hasn't hit well over the past two months. The Nationals would happily dump what remains of Josh Bell's $6MM salary. The ever streaky Bell was terrible in April, raked in May, had an awful June, and is hitting well in a tiny sample in July. Texas could send the Nats a middling prospect and hope to catch lightning in a bottle.

Bell would only make sense as one of multiple offensive acquisitions. The DH spot has been the biggest issue but is far from the only problem. Texas has also gotten below-average production out of catcher, first base, third base and right field. They're not going to be able to afford upgrades at five different positions, of course, but that at least gives them a wide positional net they can cast.

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Latest On Rays’ Deadline Possibilities

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The Rays stumbled into the All-Star Break. The Red Sox swept them in a four-game set at Fenway to conclude the first half. Tampa Bay has dropped 11 of their past 14 games. They’d climbed as high as 11 games above .500 in late June; they’re now just three over at 50-47.

Like many other fringe contenders, the Rays face a pivotal upcoming two weeks. They’ll play host to the Orioles and White Sox for very winnable series coming out of the Break. They’ll hit the road for sets in Cincinnati and a four-game series against the Yankees running through July 31. President of baseball operations Erik Neander acknowledged to Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times that the club’s deadline plans will in part be shaped by how they begin the second half.

“We’ve got to make up some ground,” Neander said of a team that sits a game and a half behind the Mariners for the last AL Wild Card spot. “There’s a belief in this team. … But these are really big games that will have some sort of influence on our decision-making as the month draws to a close.”

Unsurprisingly, Neander expressed hope that the team plays well enough for the front office to add. “I’d like to think that just about anything I think this group is capable of over these few weeks will lead us in a position where we’re looking to at least improve somewhere on the roster, if not significantly so,” he told Topkin. “But we’ve got to go out and play well and win. If we don’t, or if we have a stretch the way we had the last couple of weeks going into the Break, that comes with all sorts of additional questions that I’d much rather not think about.”

The Rays rarely operate as strict buyers or sellers. Remaining consistently competitive while operating with bottom five payrolls requires an openness to listening on veteran players even in years where they’re simultaneously trying to add to the big league roster. Tampa Bay already made one notable trade this month, acquiring controllable setup man Bryan Baker from Baltimore for the 37th pick in last Sunday’s draft. They could continue to add to the bullpen and/or bring in a right-handed bat (ideally in the outfield).

At the same time, they’ll certainly get calls on their more expensive players. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported last night that the Red Sox would be interested in Yandy Díaz if the Rays make him available. Boston has an obvious need for a right-handed hitting first baseman. Still, it’s not clear if the Rays will shop Díaz at all — much less to a division rival that currently sits 2.5 games above them in the standings.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this morning that the Rays would likely hold onto Díaz, who is signed at a bargain rate for another two and a half seasons. He’s making $10MM this year and is guaranteed $12MM for next season. There’s a $10MM club option for ’27 that would vest at $13MM if he takes 500 plate appearances next year. Díaz and the Rays initially agreed to the extension in 2023 and restructured it just this spring to guarantee his ’26 earnings while adding the option year.

Rosenthal argues the Rays may be reluctant to trade Díaz so soon after he agreed to a team-friendly extension. That said, one could’ve made a similar point regarding Tyler Glasnow — whom the Rays traded to the Dodgers a little over a year after he signed an extension. Rosenthal nevertheless suggests that Tampa Bay would be likelier to move second baseman Brandon Lowe or closer Pete Fairbanks if the team doesn’t play well coming out of the Break.

Lowe went on the injured list with left oblique tightness last week but could be reinstated when first eligible tomorrow. He’s making $10.5MM this year and controllable for another season on an $11.5MM club option. Lowe started the year slowly but has been on a tear since May and is up to 19 homers with a .272/.324/.487 batting line.

Fairbanks has a 2.75 ERA and has gone 15-18 in save opportunities over 36 innings. His strikeout rate has been trending down for a couple seasons, though, dropping to a career-low 20.7% clip. While Fairbanks is playing this year on an extremely affordable $3.667MM salary, his contract contains an increasingly expensive club option for 2026.

That initially came with a $7MM base value but contained up to $6MM in escalators. Fairbanks has already pushed the option price to $8MM by reaching 125 appearances over the past three seasons and topping 25 games finished this year. It’ll climb by another $1MM when he makes three more appearances, $1MM more with 18 appearances, and another $1MM with 23 more games. It’d jump by $500K apiece with three, eight, and 13 more games finished.

Unless he suffers a significant injury, Fairbanks should push the option value well into eight figures. That’d make him one of the highest-paid players on the 2026 roster. As long as they’re in the playoff picture, the Rays may view that as an offseason problem. This year’s salary can only climb by a maximum of $300K. Yet it’s a factor for a front office that needs to balance the short and long term as much as any.

Beyond Lowe and Fairbanks, the Rays seem likely to shop a starting pitcher. Impending free agent Zack Littell is the most obvious candidate, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported over the weekend that they’re open to inquiries on controllable righty Taj Bradley.

The Rays have a strong rotation of Ryan Pepiot, Drew Rasmussen, Shane Baz, Littell and Bradley. Hard-throwing righty Joe Boyle is pitching in multi-inning relief, but Neander reiterated to Topkin that the Rays would be comfortable using Boyle as a starter if a spot opened. They’re also hopefully a couple weeks away from Shane McClanahan making his long-awaited return from injury.

Brewers Outright Drew Avans

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Brewers outfielder Drew Avans was outrighted to Triple-A Nashville, according to the MLB.com transaction tracker. Milwaukee designated him for assignment on Sunday when Blake Perkins returned from the 60-day injured list.

Milwaukee picked up Avans on a waiver claim from the A’s last month. The rookie outfielder went 0-2 in his only big league appearance before being optioned. He has made 23 appearances with Nashville, hitting .261/.358/.391 in 106 trips to the plate. While that’s serviceable production on the surface, Avans has struck out 32 times. He’d only punched out in 14% of his plate appearances with the A’s top farm team earlier in the year.

Before this season, the 29-year-old Avans had played in the Dodgers’ system. He’s a former 33rd-round draft pick who has stolen a decent number of bases but struggled to make contact in his minor league career. Avans signed an offseason minor league contract with the A’s and earned an MLB call by hitting .328/.414/.444 in Triple-A. This is his first career outright, so he’ll remain in the Milwaukee organization and try to play his way back onto the roster. He would become a free agent at the end of the season if the Brewers don’t reselect his contract.

Red Sox, Ronaldo Hernandez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox are bringing catcher Ronaldo Hernández back to the organization on a minor league contract, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. The 27-year-old was released from a minor league deal with the Yankees a couple weeks ago. He had a three-day stint in the Mexican League before returning to the affiliated ranks. He’ll report to Triple-A Worcester.

Hernández was once a highly-regarded prospect in the Tampa Bay system. The Rays dealt him to the Red Sox in advance of the 2021 season. That turned out to be a lopsided deal in Tampa Bay’s favor, as they landed Jeffrey Springs in that four-player swap. Boston also acquired infielder Nick Sogard, while the Rays picked up reliever Chris Mazza. Hernández spent a couple seasons on Boston’s 40-man roster but went through outright waivers after the ’22 campaign.

The Colombia native played the ’23 season in Worcester. He spent last year in the Arizona system and made 25 Triple-A appearances in the Yankees organization earlier this year. He hit .221 with a pair of home runs. Hernández now carries a .264/.324/.453 slash line in nearly 1200 plate appearances at the top minor league level. He has been called to the majors twice (both by the Red Sox in 2022) but hasn’t made it into a game.

Carlos Narváez and Connor Wong are Boston’s only catchers on the 40-man roster. The Sox traded depth catcher Blake Sabol to the White Sox over the weekend. Hernández backfills alongside defensive specialist Seby Zavala in Worcester. Zavala would probably be the first man up if either Narváez or Wong sustain an injury.

Trade Deadline Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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MLBTR’s new team-by-team deadline preview series continues with a look at the Tigers. Detroit entered the season as fringe contenders, but have emerged as the clear best team in the American League and possess MLB's best record overall coming out of the All-Star break. That's been thanks to some surprise breakout performances, as well as the club's top stars playing as expected. The Tigers are one of the most obvious buyers in the sport this trade season, though with a well-balanced roster there are few glaring holes they're desperate to upgrade.

Record: 59-38 (99.0% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entrants in this series, see this post.

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Infield, center field, starting pitching, bullpen help

The Tigers have a well-constructed team without many needs they absolutely must upgrade. With that being said, there's at least some room for improvement virtually everywhere on the roster. A roster full of versatile position players who can be moved around as needed means that the Tigers can afford to be creative in upgrading their lineup this summer, and for a team with an above-average but not necessarily outstanding offense that figures to be a good place to start. Players like Javier Baez and Zach McKinstry are capable of playing virtually all over the diamond as needed, and while others like Colt Keith and Matt Vierling aren't quite as versatile, they can at least move around a handful of positions to give Detroit some further flexibility.

As presently constructed, the clearest hole in the Tigers' lineup appears to be center field. The combination of Parker Meadows and Vierling simply hasn't gotten it done this year. Both spent time on the injured list early in the season but now sport wRC+ marks of 55 and 50 respectively, although both of those figures come in fairly small sample sizes. That's especially true of Vierling, who has been healthy enough to get into just 13 games this season. Perhaps the Tigers could bet on the pair to find the form they flashed last year if given enough runway, but both hitters have options remaining and the club will surely be looking to maximize this opportunity given the dwindling team control of Tarik Skubal.

Cedric Mullins is a rental who could be available and would raise the floor for the Tigers in the outfield, with a 101 wRC+ this year and at least passable defense (though his bat has gone cold after a huge April). Mullins typically does his best work against right-handed pitching with a 115 wRC+ for his career and below-average numbers against fellow lefties, but this season he's actually posted reverse splits with a 140 wRC+ in 72 plate appearances against southpaws as compared to an 86 wRC+ against righties in a larger sample. Perhaps the Tigers would be willing to offer him everyday reps in the outfield, but even in some sort of timeshare with Baez, Meadows, and Vierling, Mullins would be an upgrade for a weak spot in the club's lineup.

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Kyle Gibson Announces Retirement

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After parts of 13 seasons in the big leagues, Kyle Gibson is retiring. The longtime MLB starter announced the news on the Serving It Up show this afternoon.

Gibson, 37, has been a free agent since he opted out of a minor league contract with the Rays last month. The veteran righty had pitched very well over four Triple-A starts, but Tampa Bay did not have room in their big league rotation. Gibson said today that he hoped his Triple-A numbers would lead to an immediate MLB opportunity. When that didn’t materialize, he decided to retire. He implied that he received a major league offer a couple weeks later but he and his wife Elizabeth were happy with his decision by that point.

“It has been a lot of fun to be around the family a lot more. … That’s where I ended up a couple weeks ago when it turned out that I wasn’t going to get the opportunity that I was looking for,” Gibson added. “It has been exciting being home and turning the page to a new chapter. I’ve taken the last couple weeks to call and text people who I really wanted to let know (the news) in person. I’m going to take the next few days and try to write something up to properly thank everybody that needs to be thanked for the last 15, 16 years in professional baseball.”

Gibson’s pro career began when he was selected by the Twins in the first round in 2009. A 2011 Tommy John surgery prevented him from making his big league debut until 2013. Gibson made 31 starts the following year, the beginning of his lengthy run as an innings eater. He made at least 25 starts in all six full seasons in Minnesota. Gibson posted a pair of sub-4.00 ERA showings and has his best year in 2018. He turned in a 3.62 earned run average while setting career marks in innings (196 2/3) and strikeouts (179).

A first-time free agent after the 2019 season, Gibson joined the Rangers on a three-year deal that guaranteed $28MM. He struggled in the shortened 2020 campaign but got out to a fantastic first few months a year later. Gibson reeled off a 2.87 ERA in his first 19 starts to earn an All-Star selection. The Rangers were out of contention, so they shipped him alongside Ian Kennedy to the Phillies at the deadline. Gibson spent a season and a half at the back of the Philadelphia rotation. He posted a 5.06 ERA in 43 regular season appearances and was part of the NL’s pennant winning club in 2022. Gibson made one appearance in the Fall Classic, tossing a scoreless inning.

That marked the end of the three-year deal. Gibson would finish his career on a series of one-year contracts. He signed with the Orioles in 2023, posting a 4.73 ERA over 33 starts. He won a career-high 15 games that year and led the 101-win club with 192 innings. A Midwest native who attended the University of Missouri, Gibson chose to pitch close to home in 2024. He signed a $13MM contract with the Cardinals and remained a steady hand at the back of the rotation. He worked to a 4.24 ERA while reaching 30 starts for the fourth consecutive season.

Gibson’s final trip to free agency was not as fruitful. He remained unsigned well into Spring Training. Gibson finally returned to Baltimore on a $5.25MM contract with less than a week until Opening Day. He agreed to spend the first couple weeks of the season building up in Triple-A. The O’s brought him up at the end of April, but opponents teed off for 23 runs across 12 1/3 innings. Baltimore released him after just four MLB starts. That’d prove to be the final work of his big league career, though his professional run concluded with three consecutive scoreless starts for Tampa Bay’s Triple-A club before he triggered the opt-out clause.

Aside from this year’s extremely small sample, Gibson was a consistent and remarkably durable starter. While he never reached the 200-inning mark, he thrice got past 190 frames. Gibson topped 150 innings nine times and had a grand total of three injured list stints in his MLB career. A 2016 shoulder strain was the only injury that cost him more than a month after he reached the big leagues.

Over the 11-year stretch between 2014-24, only Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole topped Gibson’s 1814 2/3 innings. He started 314 games during that time, 16 more than anyone else. Gibson finishes his career with a 4.60 ERA in 1878 frames. He topped 1500 strikeouts and won 112 games. Baseball Reference credited him with roughly 14 wins above replacement, while FanGraphs valued him at 21 WAR. Gibson made 30+ starts for five different teams and earned a little more than $73MM in salary, according to B-Ref. Congratulations to Gibson on an excellent run and all the best in retirement.

Image courtesy of Kim Klement, Imagn Images.

Corbin Martin Elects Free Agency

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The Orioles announced Thursday that right-hander Corbin Martin, whom they designated for assignment this past Sunday, has cleared waivers and rejected an outright assignment to Triple-A Norfolk. He’s now a free agent.

The 29-year-old Martin appeared in one game for the O’s — his first time on a big league mound since the 2022 season with the D-backs. The former second-round pick was one of four players traded by the Astros to Arizona in 2019’s Zack Greinke trade. Martin was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery at the time of that trade and was ultimately unable to establish himself with the Diamondbacks. He’s pitched 57 2/3 innings in the big leagues to this point in his career (including his quick look with the O’s) and carries a 6.56 ERA, a 19.4% strikeout rate and a 13.4% walk rate.

The Orioles claimed Martin off waivers from the Brewers last June. He’s pitched 32 1/3 innings with a 5.29 ERA in Triple-A Norfolk this year. That includes a strong run from May 30 to the time of his call to the majors, during which he rattled off 12 innings of one-run ball with an 11-to-4 K/BB ratio. Overall, Martin has set down 23% of his opponents on strikes against a 10.4% walk rate. In parts of five Triple-A seasons, Martin has a 5.18 ERA, 23.1% strikeout rate and 11.8% walk rate in a total of 217 1/3 innings.

Yankees Interested In Mitch Keller

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The Yankees have shown interest in Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller, reports Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. They’re one of several clubs in the running for the 29-year-old righty, who’s signed for three additional years beyond the current season. Both the Mets and Cubs have been tied to Keller in recent weeks. Hiles adds that the Cubs currently view Keller more of a backup option in their rotation search, while the Mets are “very” interested.

Interest in Keller is only natural for the Yankees, who’ll be prominent players in the starting pitching market over the next two weeks. GM Brian Cashman acknowledged as much recently when indicating that pitching will be his top priority this summer. New York lost Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery before the season even began. Clarke Schmidt met the same fate earlier this month. Reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil still hasn’t pitched this season due to a lat strain. Lefty Ryan Yarbrough has also been out nearly a month due to an oblique strain.

At the moment, the Yankees have Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman and rookies Will Warren and Cam Schlittler in the rotation. The hope is that Gil, who’s already on a minor league rehab assignment, can strengthen that group soon. In theory, Yarbrough shouldn’t be far behind, but he’s yet to begin a rehab stint. That assumes no setbacks and a return to pre-injury form though — neither of which is a guarantee.

Keller has started 20 games for Pittsburgh and boasts a 3.48 ERA. He’s punched out 18.7% of his opponents and turned in a career-low 5.5% walk rate. Keller has been on a particularly strong run of late, pitching into the sixth inning or later in 13 consecutive starts and compiling a 3.04 ERA over 80 innings in that time. Ten of those appearances have been quality starts. Dating back to 2022, Keller is tied for the seventh-most starts (112) and tenth-most innings (650 1/3) in all of Major League Baseball.

Bringing Keller into the fold would make sense both to help this season and to provide some future stability. Stroman is a free agent at season’s end. Neither Warren nor Schlittler has cemented himself as a long-term rotation cog yet. Cole’s rehab will probably extend beyond Opening Day next year. Schmidt, given the timing of his surgery, won’t make it back to the mound until at least late next year — possibly not until 2027.

Keller would add durability to that group and create the possibility of a very strong midseason rotation next year. Health for all parties can’t necessarily be assumed, but there’d be a real chance that by June or so, the Yankees could deploy a rotation including Cole, Fried, Rodon, Keller and Gil, with Warren and Schlittler as the sixth and seventh arms on the depth chart. That sort of depth would rank among the best in baseball.

There are other factors to consider. Keller is midway through the second season of a five-year, $77MM contract. He’s being paid $15MM in 2025 and will earn salaries of $16.5MM, $18MM and $20MM over the next three seasons. That’s fine value for a mid-rotation arm of Keller’s caliber — particularly if you believe there’s still a bit of untapped upside in the former second-round pick and top prospect — but the Yankees would be on the hook for a good bit more than that due to their luxury tax status.

As of this writing, Keller has about $5.89MM of this year’s salary yet to be paid out. Add that to his future salaries and he’s still owed about $60.39MM over the next three-plus seasons. The Yankees would be taxed at a 110% clip on the roughly $17.8MM annual value of that remainder — assuming they remain in the top tier of luxury penalization moving forward, which seems like a good bet.

RosterResource projects the Yankees with about $187MM of luxury obligations in 2026, and that’s before factoring in arbitration raises for Jazz Chisholm Jr., Anthony Volpe, Fernando Cruz, Schmidt and Gil. Keller would add another $17.8MM to that number, and the Yankees will be in the market for help at third base, center field and in the bullpen this winter (depending on their trade deadline activity, of course). Each of Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Devin Williams and Luke Weaver is a free agent in a few months. Even if the Yankees were able to drop down into only the third tier of penalization, they’d still pay a 90% tax on Keller’s remaining annual value.

If the Pirates do move Keller, they’ll presumably be most motivated by MLB-ready position players. Pittsburgh is deep in intriguing young arms (and just added another, Seth Hernandez, with the sixth overall pick in the 2025 draft) but hasn’t had much success in terms of developing young hitters. That’s not to say they’d have no interest in further stockpiling young pitching, but their aim over the next couple weeks is surely to add at least a few young hitters of note to help bolster a stagnant offense that ranks last in the majors in runs scored, home runs and slugging percentage.

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