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A’s Sign Alex Wood

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The A’s announced the signing of starter Alex Wood to a one-year free agent contract. The left-hander is reportedly guaranteed $8.5MM with an additional $1MM in performance incentives. Wood is an ACES client.

Wood, who celebrated his 33rd birthday earlier this month, will remain in the Bay Area for Athletics’ final season in Oakland after spending the past three seasons as a member of the Giants. A second-round pick by Altanta during the 2012 draft, spent the first several years of his career as a quality mid-rotation arm for the Braves and Dodgers with a 3.29 ERA (117 ERA+) and 3.36 FIP across 803 1/3 innings of work from 2013 to 2018. Things took a turn for the worse for Wood after he was traded to the Reds as part of a multi-player blockbuster that also sent Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp to Cincinnati. The lefty managed just 16 appearances between the 2019 and 2020 seasons and struggled to a 5.96 ERA and 6.02 FIP across the 48 1/3 innings he was able to muster during that time.

That pair of injury-marred campaigns didn’t stop the Giants from taking a chance on Wood, however, and they were rewarded for that decision almost immediately. The lefty made 26 starts for San Francisco in 2021, pitching to a 3.83 ERA with a 3.48 FIP in 138 2/3 innings of work as the Giants stormed to a 107-win season and their first division title since 2012. The club rewarded Wood with a two-year, $25MM contract that offseason, though his second contract in San Francisco was nowhere near as successful as the first.

Wood struggled to a 5.10 ERA in 26 starts with the Giants in 2022 despite peripheral numbers that indicated a much stronger performance, including a career-best 5.4% walk rate paired with solid strikeout and grounder rates. Those struggles led the club to use Wood as a hybrid starter and bulk reliever in 2023. The veteran southpaw recorded more than 12 outs just three times after the month of June last year but struggled in the swing role with a middling 4.33 ERA to go with a 4.47 FIP. Unlike 2022, Wood’s peripherals backed up the lackluster results in 2023 as his walk rate ballooned to 9.8% while his strikeout rate dipped to just 17.2%.

Despite his struggles over the past two seasons, the addition of Wood could be a significant boost for an A’s club that lost 112 games last year thanks in part to a rotation that finished 2023 with a collective ERA of 5.74, worst among major league clubs that do not call Coors Field home. Even Wood’s diminished production of a 4.77 ERA and 4.07 FIP over the past two seasons would be a notable improvement over that figure, and if he recaptures the mid-rotation form he flashed earlier in his career Wood could be a valuable piece for the A’s to flip at the deadline as they continue their rebuild. In the meantime, Wood figures to join JP Sears and Paul Blackburn in the Oakland rotation with the likes of Luis Medina, Joe Boyle, and Joey Estes among the possibilities to round out the club’s starting five.

The deal for Wood takes another starting-caliber arm off of the market for clubs in search of pitching help. Teams in search of starting options can still look to Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery in terms of impact options, but the lower levels of free agency have begun to dwindle with arms like Michael Lorenzen and Hyun Jin Ryu representing some of the next-best options remaining after the top-of-the-market southpaws. As for the A’s, the club has previously indicated they expect to increase payroll over their 2023 figure. Pending the terms of Wood’s deal with the club, RosterResource projects the club for a microscopic $41MM payroll as things stand in 2024, $17MM below where they stood last year. That should leave room for the club to target further rotation additions or perhaps help at shortstop in the run-up to Spring Training next month, though they remain unlikely to shop in the higher tiers of free agency.

Robert Murray of FanSided reported the A’s and Wood had reached agreement. Melissa Locked of the Athletic first reported the $8.5MM guarantee and the $1MM in performance bonuses.

Giants Trade Ross Stripling To Athletics

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The A’s announced Friday that they’ve acquired right-hander Ross Stripling and cash from the Giants in exchange for minor league outfielder Jonah Cox. In order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster, infielder Jonah Bride was designated for assignment. Oakland also confirmed its previously reported one-year deal with lefty Alex Wood.

It’s a rare swap of players between the two Bay Area clubs — one that will add some direly needed pitching to an Athletics roster that’s largely devoid of proven big league arms. The 34-year-old Stripling is coming off a tough first season after signing a two-year, $25MM deal with San Francisco, though he did pitch quite a bit better as the season wore on. The veteran swingman opened the season with 32 1/3 innings of 7.24 ERA ball between the rotation and bullpen before hitting the injured list with a back strain for the next six weeks.

Perhaps Stripling was never at full strength to begin the year, because upon returning from the injured list he pitched much more like his typical self. Over the course of his final 56 2/3 frames, the right-hander notched a 4.29 earned run average with a pedestrian 18.7% strikeout rate and an elite 2.6% walk rate. That lines up far more nicely with Stripling’s broader track record; from 2016-22, he logged a 3.78 ERA in 672 innings split between the Dodgers and Blue Jays.

Stripling is owed $12.5MM this coming season. He had an opt-out opportunity following year one of his contract but unsurprisingly decided to forgo that right after his uneven showing with the Giants. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reports that the Giants are paying down $3.25MM of Stripling’s salary; the A’s will be on the hook for the remaining $9.25MM.

The A’s could opt to use Stripling in the rotation or in the bullpen. He has ample experience in both roles and has had success in each as well. Certainly, Oakland brass had hoped that by now, several of the young arms acquired in the trades of Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Sean Murphy, Lou Trivino and others would have yielded some controllable cornerstone pieces in the starting rotation.

That hasn’t happened, however. Left-hander JP Sears, who posted a 4.54 ERA in 32 starts and 172 1/3 innings out of the rotation last year, is the lone pitcher acquired in that fire sale who’s had any semblance of sustained success with the A’s. Others such as Ken Waldichuk, Kyle Muller, Adrian Martinez, Luis Medina, Zach Logue and Adam Oller (among others) have struggled. Medina did pitch fairly well in the second half of the 2023 season and is likely ticketed for a rotation spot in ’24, but that’s a sample of only 50 innings (4.32 ERA, 21.3% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate).

As such, it seems likely that Stripling and Wood will be reunited as not only teammates but rotation-mates. Stripling’s experience oscillating between a starting and relief role could mean he ends up in the bullpen at various points while the A’s take a look at younger arms. His familiarity with that role is a benefit to a team in the Athletics’ situation. If either Stripling or Wood can rebound after posting shaky results with the 2023 Giants, it’s quite likely that a non-contending A’s team will flip them both for younger talent prior to this summer’s trade deadline.

Stripling’s acquisition comes at the cost of the 28-year-old Bride’s roster spot. Bride, a versatile infielder/outfielder who’s played just about every position on the diamond, has appeared in each of the past two big league seasons. He’s batted just .192/.296/.232 in 293 trips to the plate, but he carries a stout .322/.450/.533 line in 401 plate appearances in Triple-A, where he’s walked more often than he’s struck out. The A’s will have a week to trade Bride or attempt to pass him through outright waivers. He still has a minor league option remaining. Between that, his plus hit tool and defensive versatility, he’s a candidate to be claimed or flipped to another club in a separate, minor trade.

As for the Giants, they’ll acquire Oakland’s sixth-round selection from just this past summer’s draft. Cox, 22, batted .287/.366/.403 with a 28.3% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate in 145 plate appearances split between the Athletics’ Rookie-level Arizona Complex League and Low-A clubs. Baseball America ranked him 29th among A’s farmhands heading into the 2024 season, touting him as a plus-plus runner who can handle center field. Cox is years away from being a potential big league factor, but despite struggling with strikeouts in his debut season, BA praised his strong bat-to-ball skills and credited him with an above-average hit tool.

For San Francisco, the money saved in the trade is every bit as important as the player side of the return. Moving the bulk of Stripling’s contract dropped the Giants’ payroll to a projected $154MM, per Roster Resource, and they’re now just under $200MM in luxury tax obligations. That gives them $37MM worth of AAV to work with before they come against even the first luxury threshold.

There are any number of ways for Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi to reallocate those funds. The Giants have been linked to Matt Chapman throughout the offseason, and signing him would bolster the infield defense while adding some pop (but also quite a few strikeouts) to the lineup. Cody Bellinger looks like less of a fit than he did prior to the Giants’ signing of Jung Hoo Lee on a six-year deal, but it could conceivably work out if the Giants push Michael Conforto into more of a DH role (or trade Conforto or another outfielder such as Mike Yastrzemski). San Francisco also reportedly made a late offer to Rhys Hoskins before he signed in Milwaukee, so it seems there’s the possibility of adding a bat to the first base/designated hitter mix.

Just as notable is San Francisco’s lack of rotation stability. Ace Logan Webb is one of the game’s best arms, but the trade of Stripling leaves the Giants with zero established arms beyond him. Top prospect Kyle Harrison was solid in last year’s MLB debut, but that amounted to all of 34 2/3 innings. The Giants signed oft-injured reliever Jordan Hicks and plan to plug him into the rotation — a dicey proposition that would be more befitting of a team with only one rotation hole and several workhorse arms ahead of him. Younger righties like Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck could factor into things as well, but it was obvious even before trading Stripling that the Giants needed at least one more starting pitcher.

The Giants have the resources to pursue top-of-the-market arms like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, though doing so would require deviating from the front office’s prior aversion to long-term deals for pitchers. Other yet-unsigned options include Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger and Hyun Jin Ryu. The trade market features names like Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber and any number of Marlins hurlers (Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett and Jesus Luzardo among them).

Stripling becomes the second pitcher and third free-agent signing from last offseason that the Giants will pay to pitch elsewhere in 2024. San Francisco paid the Mariners $6MM in the trade sending Anthony DeSclafani and Mitch Haniger to Seattle. (DeSclafani has since been flipped to Minnesota along with a bit of additional cash kicked in from the M’s.) They’ll have to hope for better results in this winter’s crop of signees if they hope to avoid a fifth playoff miss in six seasons under the current front office.

Where Will Jorge Soler Sign?

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Jorge Soler probably didn’t anticipate he’d still be unsigned in February when he declined a $13MM player option with the Marlins. The right-handed slugger is one of the better offensive players to hit the market in a weak free agent class. It’s likely his camp started out looking for a three or even four-year deal.

Whatever Soler’s asking price, it obviously hasn’t materialized to this point. Some of that is a reflection of a generally slow-moving hitting market, but he remains unsigned even as a few comparable players have now come off the board. The recent signings of Joc Pederson and Justin Turner, in particular, could have an adverse effect.

Pederson signed for $12.5MM with the Diamondbacks, while Turner inked a $13MM guarantee with the Blue Jays. Both players now seem set to work as those clubs’ respective primary designated hitters. Arizona and Toronto had each been linked to Soler earlier in the offseason, with the Jays and his camp reportedly maintaining contact as recently as last week. While the Jays could perhaps still make a Soler deal work by giving Turner regular run at third base, that’s a lot tougher than it seemed a few days ago.

There aren’t many other clear fits. Along with Toronto and Arizona, the Mariners, Red Sox and Marlins have been connected to Soler this offseason. Seattle instead reacquired Mitch Haniger and signed Mitch Garver to add right-handed power. Soler admitted a few weeks ago that Miami had shown essentially no interest in a reunion. While Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald subsequently wrote that the sides have had some contact, he suggested the Fish would only seriously consider Soler if his market cratered.

Boston theoretically remains in play. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said a couple weeks ago the team was still open to adding a right-handed hitter to the outfield mix. Soler could split time with Masataka Yoshida between left field and DH. As with Miami, this could require his asking price falling, however. Boston was reportedly reluctant to go beyond two years and something in the $28MM range for Teoscar Hernández. If they value Soler similarly, that’d be a disappointing outcome for the 2023 All-Star.

There are a few other teams that make some sense for a righty-hitting DH, even if they haven’t been prominently tied to Soler. The Mets don’t have a set option at designated hitter. Will Sammon of the Athletic wrote yesterday that the position isn’t a priority for New York, which seems likely to rely on younger hitters like Brett Baty and Mark Vientos. The Nationals have a clear opening but are still amidst a rebuild.

The Giants have prioritized becoming more athletic this offseason; signing a defensively-limited slugger like Soler would cut against that. The Angels have ample payroll space and could consider a primary DH after losing Shohei Ohtani. That doesn’t seem like a priority. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently wrote that the Halos were reluctant to tie up the position, instead preferring to leave open the possibility of rotating Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon as needed in a bid to keep them healthier.

The Cubs have Christopher Morel as a DH possibility. The Padres have a vacancy but are facing payroll constraints and have needs in the outfield and rotation. The Twins could use a right-handed hitter and potentially cleared an opening at DH with the Jorge Polanco trade (thereby freeing second base for Edouard Julien). Do they have enough financial breathing room to make a run?

Will the lack of clear fits deal a significant hit to Soler’s market? At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted him for a three-year, $45MM contract. On New Year’s Eve, 62% of respondents predicted Soler would secure a larger guarantee than would J.D. Martinez, who stands as perhaps his top remaining competitor for a DH job. How much should Soler expect to receive and which uniform will he be wearing on Opening Day?

 

 

Braves Sign Ken Giles To Minor League Deal

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The Braves announced their slate of non-roster invitees to spring training Friday, and while the majority of names within have already been reported or announced over the course of the offseason, there are a few notable names revealed within today’s release. Former Astros and Blue Jays closer Ken Giles, who recently worked out for teams, will be in camp after inking a minor league pact. Former Reds infielder Alejo Lopez and former Royals catcher Sebastian Rivero have also signed minor league contracts with non-roster invitations.

Now 33 years old, Giles was one of the game’s best relievers at his peak. He debuted with the 2014 Phillies and delivered consecutive sub-2.00 ERA seasons. From 2014-19, Giles racked up 114 saves between Philadelphia, Houston and Toronto while pitching to a 2.67 ERA and striking out one-third of his opponents against a 7.5% walk rate. Injuries have derailed that excellent start to his career; he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2020, which wiped out his 2021 season entirely.

Giles inked a two-year deal with the Mariners spanning the 2021-22 seasons, with Seattle hoping he’d be healthy for the second year of that arrangement. A strained tendon in his pitching hand pushed back his debut, however, and Giles only wound up pitching 4 1/3 innings with the M’s over the course of that two-year contract. Seattle declined a club option for the 2023 season. He pitched 20 innings in the Dodgers’ minor league ranks last year and fanned 32 hitters but also walked 19 while recording an 8.55 ERA.

Four full seasons have now been completed since Giles was last a dominant big league reliever. It’s perhaps a long shot for him to ever recapture that form, but there’s also little harm in the Braves taking what amounts to a no-risk look at him during spring training. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Rowley Sports Management client would earn at a $1.75MM rate if he’s added to the big league roster at any point.

Lopez, 27, has seen MLB time in each of the past three seasons with Cincinnati. He’s played second base, third base and all three outfield positions while posting a .265/.309/.329 batting line over the course of 181 plate appearances. The versatile Lopez has excellent bat-to-ball skills, evidenced by a 14.9% strikeout rate in the big leagues. In Triple-A, he’s walked at a 12.5% clip against a tiny 11.4% strikeout rate while batting .289/.384/.412 in 1030 plate appearances.

The 25-year-old Rivero appeared with the Royals in 2021-22, appearing in 34 games and batting .167/.236/.197 in 73 plate appearances. Rivero spent the 2023 season in the White Sox minor league system, splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A. He slashed .219/.273/.326 in that one-year stint with Chicago and is a career .247/.297/.369 hitter in parts of three Triple-A seasons. Rivero is touted as a plus defender behind the plate and sports strong framing marks in the minors in addition to a solid 27% caught-stealing rate across all levels in his professional career.

Theo Epstein Joins Fenway Sports Group As Partial Owner, Senior Advisor

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Former Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein will have a role with the team once again, as Sportico’s Brendan Coffey reports that Epstein is set to join Fenway Sports Group as a partial owner and senior advisor. Red Sox principal owner John Henry and chairman Tom Werner hold those same respective titles with the FSG conglomerate, which owns the Red Sox, Pittsburgh Penguins, Liverpool F.C., RFK Racing, NESN and several other sports holdings.

“It’s a great honor, something I’m really excited about,” Epstein tells Coffey. “It’s just exciting to be joining such a dynamic, groundbreaking company across multiple sports, doing so many innovative things at the cutting edge of everything going on in sports these days. For me, it’s perfect, I was looking for a pathway into ownership.”

While Epstein won’t be resuming his role as head of baseball operations, he does have a strong relationship with newly hired Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow. Epstein was the Cubs’ president of baseball operations when he hired Breslow as the team’s director of strategic initiatives. Breslow was eventually named the Cubs’ organization-wide director of pitching before being promoted to assistant general manager.

“I’m a full believer in him and what he and his team are going to mean for the Red Sox,” Epstein said of Breslow.

Per Coffey, Epstein will serve as a “sounding board and executive coach” to the Red Sox baseball operations staff when needed but doesn’t have a formal role within the baseball ops ranks in his return to the organization. According to FSG’s press release announcing the hiring, Epstein will advise Henry, Werner, CEO Sam Kennedy and president Mike Gordon “on the company’s sporting operations across the portfolio and consult on strategic growth and investment initiatives.”

“There is no question that Theo left an indelible mark on our history that represented a transformative era,” Henry said in a statement within FSG’s press release. “Welcoming him as a member of our ownership group and in the role of Senior Advisor to the broader company brings with it a sense of completion. With his strategic mind, leadership, and unwavering passion for sports, Theo brings invaluable assets that will drive us forward across our diverse enterprises, especially in our sporting operations across hockey, EPL football, and baseball. We take great pride in welcoming him to the FSG family and eagerly anticipate the insights and contributions he will bring as we continue to build on the legacy of success he played a pivotal role in helping us shape.”

Epstein, 50, was the Red Sox’ general manager from 2003-11, during which time he oversaw the construction of a 2004 Red Sox club that broke the organization’s 86-year World Series drought and quickly added a second championship four years later, in 2007. The Cubs hired Epstein away and gave him the new title of president of baseball operations following the 2011 season. As was the case in Boston, he broke a historic championship drought when the 2016 Cubs won the World Series for the first time since 1908.

Epstein stepped away from the Cubs following the 2020 season, ceding his president of baseball operations title to longtime general manager Jed Hoyer. Months later, Epstein was named a consultant to Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred — a role in which he’s credited with helping to implement MLB’s pitch clock and several other newer rule changes. He’s held until present day but will now step away from the commissioner’s office as he begins his next venture. Epstein will still serve the league’s Competition Committee and On-Field Committee “on an informal basis,’ per FSG’s press release, and he’ll be able to continue as the Operating Partner for Arctos Partners, a private sports equity firm that Epstein joined back in Feb. 2021.

The Opener: Brewers, Suarez, Relievers

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On the heels of a late-offseason blockbuster, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:

1. What’s next for the Brewers?

The Brewers parted ways with ace Corbin Burnes yesterday, shipping him to Baltimore in exchange for youngsters DL Hall, Joey Ortiz and Baltimore’s Competitive Balance draft pick — the No. 34 overall selection this summer. While the deal provides the club with an infusion of cost-controlled talent, it leaves a Milwaukee team that has been defined by its twin aces at the top of the rotation in recent years without either player headed into the 2024 campaign after Brandon Woodruff was non-tendered following shoulder surgery. The moves beg the question of what’s next for this new-look Brewers club. The organization clearly isn’t punting on 2024 after signing Rhys Hoskins to a two-year deal less than two weeks ago, and the club could have a new superstar to build around emerge this year when outfielder Jackson Chourio makes his big league debut. The trade of Burnes also freed up more than $15MM and dropped the team payroll to just under $102MM. That should free up some resources to replace some of Burnes’ lost value in free agency, should Milwaukee choose to go that route.

On the other hand, Ortiz’s presence would make it significantly easier for the club to part ways with shortstop Willy Adames while still aiming to remain competitive, and it’s even possible to imagine the club deciding to cash in on closer Devin Williams with a two pennant races of team control remaining as they did with Josh Hader back in 2022. Virtually any contending club would figure to have at least some level of interest in Williams’s services if Milwaukee were to accept offers on the righty, while teams like the Dodgers, Marlins, and Rays could stand to improve at shortstop and may have some level of interest in Adames.

2. Angels, Suarez await arbitration decision:

Per the Associated Press, the Angels and left-hander Jose Suarez went to arbitration yesterday with a decision expected sometime today. The southpaw requested a $1.35MM salary while the Angels countered with a figure of $925K. Teams have won more arbitration cases than players in recent years, and the clubs are off to a good start in maintaining that record after the first arbitration decision of the winter favored the Marlins over center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. yesterday.

Suarez’s first trip through arbitration comes on the heels of a brutal 2023 campaign where he was limited to just 33 2/3 innings of work by injury and was shelled to the tune of an 8.29 ERA. Difficult as last year was for the lefty, the 26-year-old enjoyed back-to-back strong campaigns while swinging between the rotation and bullpen for the Angels in 2021 and 2022, where he combined for a 3.86 ERA in 207 1/3 innings of work. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Suarez for a $1.1MM salary earlier this winter.

3. Two relievers nearing deals:

A pair of bullpen pieces were reportedly closing in on deals yesterday as right-hander Keynan Middleton has reportedly reached an agreement with the Cardinals while southpaw Jake Diekman is on the verge of a pact with the Mets. Diekman has reportedly been offered a one-year deal at an unreported salary that includes a vesting option for 2025 while the details of Middleton’s arrangement with St. Louis, which is pending a physical, are not yet known. Both teams have full 40-man rosters, meaning each will need to make a corresponding move to clear space for their new signing if a deal is completed. Quality options for teams in search of bullpen help continue to thin as right-handers Ryan Brasier, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek stand as the best relief arms still available, while lefty relief options include bounceback candidates like Brad Hand, Aaron Loup, and Joely Rodriguez..

Orioles Acquire Corbin Burnes

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The Orioles got their ace. Baltimore announced the acquisition of 2021 NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes from the Brewers for rookie infielder Joey Ortiz, left-hander DL Hall, and their 2024 Competitive Balance Round A draft pick (#34 overall). Milwaukee designated lefty Ethan Small for assignment to clear the necessary 40-man roster spot.

There’d been speculation as far back as last offseason about the possibility of the Orioles acquiring a top-end starting pitcher. Baltimore has a loaded farm system that has graduated plenty of young talent over the past two seasons. Most of that has been concentrated on the position player side, making it a natural fit for them to leverage that farm depth to bring in an impact starter.

Burnes certainly qualifies. He established himself in the Milwaukee rotation during the shortened 2020 campaign. The righty has finished in the top 10 in NL Cy Young balloting in each of the past four seasons. He won the award in ’21 thanks to an MLB-best 2.43 ERA across 167 innings. Burnes followed up with a National League-leading 243 strikeouts and a 2.94 ERA across 202 frames the following season.

Last season was perhaps his least impressive showing since his 2020 breakout. Yet it could only be classified as a “down” year by Burnes’ immense standards. He remained a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, turning in a 3.39 ERA while logging 193 2/3 innings across 32 starts. His 25.5% strikeout rate was still a few points better than league average, as was his 12.2% swinging strike percentage. He finished eighth in Cy Young voting.

It wasn’t the same level of dominance that Burnes had shown in the preceding three years. He had fanned more than 30% of opponents with a swinging strike rate above 14% in every year from 2020-22. Burnes looked more like his old self down the stretch, however. He carried a 3.94 ERA and a 23.1% strikeout rate into the All-Star Break. In the second half, he fanned 28.6% of opponents while allowing only 2.71 earned runs per nine. Opposing hitters had a pitiful .187/.259/.294 slash line after the Midsummer Classic.

Going back to the start of 2020, Burnes has a 2.86 ERA over 105 appearances. He has punched out nearly 31% of batters faced against a modest 7.1% walk rate. Batters are hitting .197/.262/.308 in nearly 2500 trips to the plate. Neither left-handed nor righty-hitting opponents have had success against him. Outside of a two-week injured list stint early in 2021 because of a finger contusion, he hasn’t missed any time within the last three years.

Burnes is a true ace, one of the 5-10 best pitchers in baseball. He jumps to the top of a rotation that has suddenly gone from Baltimore’s biggest question to one of the higher-upside staffs in the league. Kyle Bradish slots in as the #2 arm after a breakout 2023 campaign in which he worked to a 2.83 ERA over 30 starts. Grayson Rodriguez looks to have turned a corner in the second half. The former top pitching prospect worked to a 4.35 ERA in his rookie season. After being tagged for a 7.35 ERA in his first 10 MLB outings, he turned in a 2.58 mark in his final 13 regular season starts (although he was hit hard in his lone playoff appearance).

That’s a potentially elite top three. Former All-Star John Means returned from Tommy John surgery late last season. Some residual elbow soreness kept him off the club’s playoff roster, but he’s expected to be fully healthy for 2024. If that’s true, he slots in well as the #4 starter. Dean Kremer would likely occupy the final spot, with Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin pushed into season-opening relief roles.

While the O’s could perhaps benefit from another depth addition or two, they’ve landed the true #1 that should represent the finishing move on an already great roster. Baltimore’s loaded young lineup and excellent relief corps led the team to 101 wins and an AL East title a year ago. The O’s lost star closer Félix Bautista to Tommy John surgery at year’s end but moved early in the offseason to sign Craig Kimbrel as a replacement.

It’s likely a one-year acquisition. Burnes will hit free agency next offseason shortly after his 30th birthday. With anything like his typical levels of production, he’ll be in line for a massive contract that could top eight years and $200-250MM. Burnes has been clear about his desire to test his value on the open market. Asked in December about the possibility of signing an extension if he were traded this winter, he said such an offer “would have to be something that would just absolutely blow you away to get you away from testing the free agent market.”

As recently as last week, O’s fans wouldn’t have been able to dream about the organization putting that kind of proposal on the table. Baltimore has dramatically scaled back spending since John Angelos assumed control of the franchise. On Tuesday, the Angelos family agreed to sell the organization to private equity mogul David Rubenstein. How that’ll impact the long-term payroll outlook remains to be seen, but Baltimore fans can be more optimistic about the chances of making significant investments once Rubenstein takes control of the franchise after the sale is approved by MLB in the coming months.

In any case, the primary focus is installing Burnes atop next year’s rotation. The three-time All-Star had settled on a $15.637MM contract with Milwaukee to avoid arbitration in his final season of eligibility. That makes him the highest-paid player on Baltimore’s roster and pushes their 2024 payroll projection to roughly $96MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. It’ll be their highest season-opening payroll since 2018 and is a marked increase over last year’s approximate $60MM mark.

Still, they’re in the bottom third of the league in projected spending. They’re making a push to defend a title in what is annually one of the sport’s most competitive divisions. Their only commitments beyond this season are a $1MM salary for Bautista and a handful of inexpensive option buyouts. Even if this takes them near their spending limit this offseason, they should have flexibility to further bolster the roster near the deadline.

That Baltimore did so without surrendering any of their true top-tier prospects reflects both the strength of their talent pipeline and the value ceiling for any player who is only one year from free agency. Ortiz and Hall are each highly-regarded young players but placed in the back half of Baltimore’s top 10 prospects at Baseball America.

Ortiz, 25, was a fourth-round pick in 2019 out of New Mexico State. He’d drawn praise for his defensive acumen dating back to his time in college. The right-handed hitter has been more productive at the plate than many amateur scouts anticipated. He owns a .286/.357/.449 slash in his minor league career. Ortiz posted even better numbers between the top two levels of the minors a year ago.

In 389 plate appearances in Norfolk, he hit .321/.378/.507 with nine homers and 30 doubles. Ortiz spent most of his time at shortstop while logging some action at both second and third base. Baltimore promoted him for the first time at the end of April. He nevertheless spent most of the season on optional assignment, appearing in only 15 big league contests. With Jackson Holliday and Gunnar Henderson as the projected left side infield for the foreseeable future, Ortiz would have had a hard time finding much playing time.

Baseball America’s scouting report rates Ortiz as a potential 70-grade (plus-plus) defensive shortstop. Assuming he’s not traded in the next six weeks, Willy Adames will open the season at shortstop. Milwaukee is likely to lose Adames to free agency next winter at the latest, though, leaving a clear path for Ortiz to emerge as the long-term answer. In the short term, he should battle Andruw Monasterio and Owen Miller for playing time at third base. If Monasterio or Miller warrant extended run at the hot corner, Ortiz is an alternative to Brice Turang at second. Turang is a gifted defender but struggled at the plate during his rookie year.

Hall, also 25, was a first-round pick out of a Georgia high school seven years ago. The 6’2″ southpaw has had the same general profile for his entire professional career: huge stuff with worrying control issues. Hall made his MLB debut in 2022 and has logged 33 big league innings over the past two seasons. He owns a 4.36 ERA with a 29% strikeout rate while working almost exclusively in relief.

His 7.6% walk percentage at the MLB level isn’t out of the ordinary. Hall has been a lot less consistent at throwing strikes in the minors, however. He handed out free passes to over 13% of batters faced in 49 innings at Norfolk a year ago, which is right in line with the 13.4% walk rate he owns in his minor league career.

That he also punched out nearly a third of batters faced in Triple-A hints at the excellent arsenal he owns. His fastball averaged nearly 96 MPH in his big league relief work. Hall also worked with a mid-80s slider and changeup while occasionally mixing in a curveball. BA’s scouting report notes that all four of those offerings could be plus or better.

It’s top-of-the-rotation caliber stuff, but Hall’s strike-throwing has led many evaluators to project him as a high-octane reliever. Milwaukee could use him in either capacity. The Brewers have ample opportunity in the rotation behind new staff ace Freddy Peralta. Veteran lefty Wade Miley is a steadying presence. After that, Milwaukee could lean on any of Colin Rea, injury returnees Joe Ross and Aaron Ashby and prospects like Hall and Robert Gasser in the rotation.

Neither Ortiz nor Hall has reached one year of major league service. They’re each under club control for at least six seasons and three years away from arbitration. They’re the kind of high minors players that Milwaukee frequently targets. Their organizational philosophy, much like that of other small-market franchises like the Rays and Guardians, is to eschew traditional competitive windows while building the farm system by trading veterans as they get close to free agency.

GM Matt Arnold stated that trading Burnes isn’t the signal of a traditional rebuild (relayed by Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Last week’s signing of Rhys Hoskins to a $34MM free agent deal that allows him to opt out after next season makes clear they’re not giving up on contending in a wide open NL Central. They’ve shown time and again they’ve nevertheless open to offers on most players to try to remain consistently competitive. After trading Josh Hader at the 2022 deadline led to discontent within the clubhouse, the front office suggested they were less inclined to make those kinds of trades during the season.

Between the shoulder injury that led Milwaukee to non-tender Brandon Woodruff and tonight’s move, the Brewers have subtracted their top two starters this offseason. Milwaukee’s payroll projection drops to around $102MM, per Roster Resource. That’s well below last year’s $118MM season-opening mark. That leaves open the possibility of Milwaukee backfilling the rotation in free agency. Arnold was noncommittal as to whether the team planned to reinvest their payroll savings (via Hogg).

Milwaukee should add a third notable young player with the draft choice they acquired. Milwaukee would have received a compensatory pick had they let Burnes depart in free agency — he’ll surely reject a qualifying offer — but that wouldn’t have been until 2025. Baltimore can make Burnes a QO next offseason (and will, unless he suffers a serious injury). As a revenue sharing recipient, they’d land a compensation pick after the first round in 2025 if he signs elsewhere for at least $50MM.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Orioles were nearing a deal to acquire Burnes. Jon Heyman of the New York Post indicated the deal was agreed upon. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Ortiz and Hall were among the pieces headed to the Brewers. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the inclusion of the draft pick to complete the deal.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Brewers Designate Ethan Small For Assignment

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The Brewers have designated left-hander Ethan Small for assignment, tweets Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. That’s the corresponding 40-man roster move for the two players acquired from Baltimore in the Corbin Burnes trade.

Small was Milwaukee’s first-round pick in 2019 after an excellent college career at Mississippi State. He was initially regarded as one or the better prospects in the organization, but his stock had dipped as he reached the upper minors. Small posted a 4.46 ERA in Double-A in 2022. Milwaukee moved him to the bullpen last year.

The 26-year-old (27 this month) posted decent numbers in relief for Triple-A Nashville. He worked to a 3.18 ERA through 51 innings, striking out 28.5% of opposing hitters. Small also walked 11.2% of batters faced and the Brewers didn’t give him much of an opportunity at the big league level. He pitched twice in the majors last season and has four MLB appearances for his career.

Small doesn’t throw especially hard, averaging 92 MPH on his fastball in his limited MLB work. Prospect evaluators credited him with a plus changeup and his atypical, over-the-top delivery makes him an unconventional look for opposing hitters.

The Brewers will have one week to trade Small or place him on outright waivers. It’s likely he’ll draw interest from another team given his draft pedigree and decent Triple-A résumé. Small has one minor league option remaining. If another team is willing to give him a spot on the 40-man roster, they could keep him in Triple-A for another season.

Latest Details On Sale Of Orioles

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The baseball world got a shocking development this week when it was reported that the Angelos family would be selling the club to an investment group led by David Rubenstein. The next day, the club confirmed the agreement with an announcement of the $1.725 billion sale.

Details continue to trickle out about the deal, with Pamela Wood of The Baltimore Banner looking backwards to the club’s negotiations with the State of Maryland. The Orioles and state officials were in contact for much of last year. The club’s lease of Camden Yards was set to expire after 2023 and the two sides took talks down to the middle of December before a new lease was approved.

There were plenty of speed bumps along the way. It was in early December that it was initially reported that Rubenstein was in talks to purchase the club. That seemed to delay the lease talks, with state senator Bill Ferguson expressing trepidation about giving out land development rights to an organization with an unclear ownership structure. The land development rights were part of the talks because John Angelos was reportedly attempting to leverage the negotiations into getting public land for a mixed-use project, combining Camden Yards with commercial and residential spaces.

Per Wood’s report, Angelos did not give Governor Wes Moore or other state officials any kinds of heads up about the sale agreement. Treasurer Dereck Davis said that Angelos “categorically denied that that they were for sale” before selling the team. “It wasn’t just that we weren’t told something. We were lied to,” Davis said.

“The transparency that was required — it was not there,” Gov. Moore said. “And it’s disappointing.”

“I do think that John’s behavior displayed an incredible lack of respect for the state and our role in working with the Baltimore Orioles and our role as the owners of the home of the Baltimore Orioles,” comptroller Brooke Lierman said. “It’s incredibly disappointing, although, frankly not surprising.” Despite the harsh words, it seems state officials suspected something was up and proceeded accordingly. “That said, we crafted an agreement in such a way that it would not matter who owned the Orioles because I think many of us believed that the Angelos family’s days as owners were numbered anyways,” Lierman said. “It was important for us to protect the state and taxpayers and our assets, no matter who the owners are.”

Though the two sides did eventually get a deal done, Angelos did not get the land he craved. The 30-year agreement does give the club a chance to opt out after 15 years if they don’t get a development deal within the next four years. Ken Rosenthal and Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic also reported on the sale this week, relaying that some people in baseball believe that the lack of a land deal was part of what motivated Angelos to sell. On top of that, the family is also looking to improve its liquidity. Rosenthal and Ghiroli relay that they are looking to sell various assets, including One Charles Center, a 22-story office tower in Baltimore.

Going forward, the sale still needs to be approved by Major League Baseball. The owners are having a scheduled meeting next week but Buster Olney of ESPN reports that the sale is not on the docket. Rosenthal and Ghiroli suggest it will likely take months for the league to conduct background checks on everyone in the ownership group. Per Wood and Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner, the full group includes New York businessman Michael Arougheti, his partners Mitchell Goldstein and Michael Smith, Orioles Hall of Fame shortstop Cal Ripken Jr., former mayor of New York Michael Bloomberg, former mayor of Baltimore Kurt Schmoke, Washington Spirit majority owner Michele Kang and NBA Hall of Famer Grant Hill.

There’s also the future of the MASN issue to be considered. The Orioles and Nationals share ownership of the network, which has the broadcast rights for both clubs, with the O’s currently owning 76% of the network but dropping to 67% by 2032. Those details were worked out as part of the agreement to move the Expos from Montreal to Washington almost 20 years ago. As a compromise for moving a club into Baltimore’s territorial range, the O’s got control of the Nationals’ TV rights and the two sides have been disputing the finances of that arrangement for quite some time.

The Lerner family has been trying to sell the Nats for almost two years now, announcing in April of 2022 that they would explore the possibility. There’s been little apparent progress towards a deal, however, with reporting from about this time a year ago suggesting the MASN dispute was a key factor. Rosenthal and Ghiroli suggest that Rubenstein might sell the O’s share of MASN to Ted Leonsis, with some in the industry expecting that to eventually happen.

Leonsis owns the Washington Wizards, Washington Capitals, and Washington Mystics, as well as the Monumental Sports Network, which broadcasts those three clubs. Getting the Orioles’ TV rights could enhance the programming options for Monumental. It was reported in November of 2022 that the Lerner family was hoping to get $2.5 billion in selling the Nats but the TV rights situation was preventing them from getting to that price point. Rosenthal and Ghiroli report today that Leonsis had offered $2.2 billion. It’s unknown whether Leonsis acquiring Baltimore’s MASN share would impact any future negotiations with the Lerners.

All told, there will be plenty of domino effects worth watching out for as the situation progresses.

Picollo On Roles For Massey, Frazier

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The latest move in a busy Royals offseason brought veteran second baseman/left fielder Adam Frazier to Kansas City on a one-year deal. Though Frazier has a long track record as an everyday player, Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo suggested following the signing that Michael Massey will still be the regular second baseman, with Frazier operating in more of a utility role (link via Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star).

“[Massey] needs to be a big part of our team, and we shared that with [Frazier] last week,” Picollo stated. The second-year K.C. GM stressed the importance of being up-front with a veteran like Frazier about the role he’d likely be stepping into. That, it seems, won’t be an everyday one. Picollo noted that with his defensive versatility, Frazier “can protect us, so to speak, in a lot of ways.”

Massey, who’ll turn 26 in March, has logged significant big league time in each of the past two seasons but has yet to solidify himself as a productive big league hitter. Selected by the Royals in the fourth round of the 2019 draft, Massey breezed through the minors. He’s a .293/.355/.503 hitter in the minors overall, and he slashed an impressive .312/.371/.532 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022 before getting his first call to the big leagues.

Unfortunately for both Massey and the Royals, that level of output hasn’t carried over to the big leagues. The lefty-swinging second baseman has appeared in 181 games over the past two seasons and turned in a middling .233/.284/.379 slash. Massey didn’t walk at prolific rates in the minors, but his 5.2% walk rate in 655 MLB plate appearances is clearly lacking. He’s popped 19 home runs and struck out at a slightly lower-than-average 21.5% clip, but his 88.8 mph exit velocity and 38.7% hard-hit rate are both a bit shy of league average.

To his credit, Massey improved down the stretch in 2023. His second-half batting line of .237/.271/.434 still sits well below average, but he cut his strikeout rate from a glaring 28.2% in 200 first-half plate appearances to 15.4% in 228 second-half trips to the plate. Massey reduced his chase rate on pitches off the plate, greatly improved his contact rate on pitches within the zone and generally swung through fewer pitches. The overall quality of his contact didn’t improve much, but the frequency of it did. Were it not for a .238 average on balls in play in that stretch of 228 plate appearances, the second half of his season would likely look a whole lot better.

The 2024 season will be an important one for Massey. He’s still relatively young, heading into his age-26 season, but with another year of comparable production to what he’s already displayed at the MLB level, it’ll be far more difficult for the Royals to continue with him in a prominent role. To that end, that’s one of the areas in which Frazier affords the team some of the “protection” mentioned by Picollo. Frazier’s own production has dropped off since his Pirates days, but last year’s .240/.300/.396 is better across the board than Massey’s was.

Frazier also offers some protection against an uncertain outfield group. MJ Melendez is another once-promising Royals farmhand who’s yet to hit in the big leagues. Free agent signee Hunter Renfroe hits lefties far better than righties. The hope is surely for him to patrol right field on an everyday basis, but if Renfroe struggles, Frazier does have nearly 400 career innings in right field. He also provides the Royals with injury depth for each of Massey, Melendez and Renfroe.

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