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Reds Hire Terry Francona As Manager

By Nick Deeds | October 4, 2024 at 9:04am CDT

Today: The Reds made things official on Friday morning, confirming they signed Francona to a three-year contract with a team option for the 2028 season.

October 3: The Reds are hiring Terry Francona as their next manager, per a report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. The club has not yet confirmed the news, but Feinsand indicates an announcement is expected as soon as tomorrow. Per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Francona’s contract is a three-year deal.

Francona, 65, is among the most decorated managers in the league’s recent history. After a four-year stint managing the Phillies in the late 90s, Francona joined the Red Sox as manager prior to the 2004 season and piloted the club to their curse-breaking World Series championship in 2004. He went on to spend eight seasons in Boston, making the postseason in five of those years (including another World Series championship in 2007) while never posting a below-.500 season. He parted ways with the Red Sox prior to the 2011 season, however, and spent the next year away from managing with four top-5 finishes in AL Manager of the Year voting to his name in addition to a pair of World Series rings.

Terry Francona

He returned to managing just a year after departing Boston, however, and spent the next 11 seasons in Cleveland. Francona’s tenure with the club was nothing short of magnificent, as he piloted the small-market franchise into consistent contention despite considerable payroll restrictions. During Francona’s tenure as manager, Cleveland enjoyed postseason baseball in six seasons while rattling off eight consecutive winning seasons and even reaching Game 7 of the World Series in 2016.

While the club ultimately fell to the Cubs in extra innings and was unable to capture another AL pennant during Francona’s tenure, their 2017 campaign was almost as impressive in some ways as Francona led them through a 22-game win streak that’s the longest in AL history and second only to the 1916 New York Giants’ 26-game win streak in MLB history. Francona’s 11 seasons with Cleveland saw him win three Manager of the Year awards as he captured the honor in 2013, 2016, and most recently in 2022 when he piloted the Guardians to an unlikely AL Central division title and within one game of the club’s first ALCS since 2016.

Francona’s time with the Guardians came to an end when he stepped down following the 2023 season amid long-standing health issues. At the time of his departure from the manager’s chair, Francona indicated to reporters (including those at ESPN) that his priority for 2024 was to “go home and get healthy and see what I miss about the game.” Clearly, the veteran skipper has decided that he misses being at the helm of a big league dugout as he will now return to Ohio as manager of the Reds, his first NL job since departing the Phillies in 2000.

He joins up with Cincinnati following a disappointing season that saw the club take a step back from last year’s 82-80 effort with a 77-85 season despite major breakouts for both star shortstop Elly De La Cruz and hard-throwing righty Hunter Greene. Injuries to key pieces like Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand likely played a role in the club’s struggles but whatever hopes the club may have for health-related improvement next year wasn’t enough to convince the front office to retain David Bell, who missed the playoffs in five of his six seasons with the Reds. The club’s managerial search reportedly included younger names such as former Cubs skipper David Ross and departing Marlins manager Skip Schumaker, but the Reds will instead lean on Francona’s decades of experience in order to turn things around for the organization.

With Francona now in place, the Reds have now addressed perhaps the biggest question mark facing them this winter as they look towards the offseason with plenty of other hurdles that will need to be addressed. Chief among those could be their TV revenue situation, as Diamond Sports is reportedly planning to cut ties with the club, which could leave their financial picture uncertain headed into 2025. That’s a frustrating situation for any club, but perhaps especially for a Reds team that already runs among the league’s lower payrolls and figures to lose Nick Martinez to the open market later this winter on the heels of an excellent 2024 campaign that saw him help shore up both the club’s rotation and bullpen throughout the year.

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Cincinnati Reds Newsstand Terry Francona

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The Opener: Reds, NLDS, ALDS

By Nick Deeds | October 4, 2024 at 8:52am CDT

With the Wild Card Series behind us, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:

1. Reds under new management:

The Reds’ managerial search came to a shocking end last night when it was reported that three-time Manager of the Year and two-time World Series champion Terry Francona is being hired to replace David Bell in the dugout. The Reds have not yet announced Tito’s hiring, but are expected to do so as soon as today. In a year that hasn’t seen much upheaval in the league’s dugouts to this point, Cincinnati’s surprise hiring of Francona takes perhaps the most attractive managerial gig available off the market though both the White Sox and Marlins have yet to name a manager for 2025 and it remains at least theoretically possible that one or more of the teams currently in the playoffs could make a change in the dugout following the postseason, though no club is an obvious candidate to do so.

2. NLDS starts this weekend:

There’s no playoff baseball scheduled for today as the remaining Wild Card teams rest up and prepare for their upcoming division series matchups. In the NL, there’s plenty of roster-related intrigue that figures to be settled this weekend before two pairs of division rivals clash. The Dodgers and Padres have already announced their starters for the first two games of the series, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.00 ERA in 18 starts) set to face Dylan Cease (3.47 ERA) in Game 1 before Jack Flaherty (3.17 ERA) faces Yu Darvish (3.31 ERA in 16 starts) the next day. Of note, Dodgers shortstop Miguel Rojas told reporters (including Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times) that the left-adductor strain that left him sidelined for the final games of the Dodgers’ regular season is still bothering him with minimal progress. Rojas indicated that he intends to play through the issue, although Tommy Edman stands as a capable replacement at shortstop if necessary.

Meanwhile, the Mets and Phillies prepare to play this weekend with only one starter announced between the two teams: Philadelphia ace Zack Wheeler (2.57 ERA) is set to take the ball for Game 1. Neither team has made any sort of indications regarding who their Game 2 starters may be, and the Mets also haven’t announced who they’ll send to the mound opposite Wheeler. Even so, there’s at least some roster-related intrigue in this series as well: the Mets are reportedly contemplating the addition of right-hander Kodai Senga to their NLDS roster. Senga has spent most of 2024 on the IL after a breakout 2023 season, and while he won’t be available as a starter this series it is possible that the club could lean on him for short relief, bolstering a bullpen that has seen closer Edwin Diaz used heavily in recent days.

3. ALDS starts this weekend:

Along with the NLDS, the ALDS will also begin this weekend. Unlikely its National League counterpart, however, the American League will only see the first game of its series take place this weekend before a day off on Sunday. This year’s Division Series is flooded with AL Central teams, as the division champion Guardians will take on the Tigers after Detroit knocked the Astros out last round, ending their long streak of ALCS appearances. The Tigers haven’t announced a starter for tomorrow’s game, though whoever they choose will face Guardians righty Tanner Bibee (3.47 ERA). Meanwhile, the Royals managed to sweep the Orioles out of the Wild Card series and prevent a fourth intradivision LDS matchup. In Baltimore’s stead, Kansas City will now face the Yankees in the Bronx with veteran right-hander Michael Wacha (3.35 ERA) scheduled to face ace righty Gerrit Cole (3.41 ERA) in tomorrow’s game.

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The Opener

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Offseason Outlook Articles Now Part Of Trade Rumors Front Office

By Tim Dierkes | October 4, 2024 at 7:50am CDT

Many of you have noticed that our long-running Offseason Outlook series is now a part of our paid Trade Rumors Front Office service.

I understand this change has been jarring for some, and I apologize for not providing a heads up.  It is a permanent change, and next spring’s Offseason in Review series will be exclusive to Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers as well.

Our traffic declined in 2023 for the first time in MLBTR’s history, and ad rates have been falling for roughly seven years.  I decided to create Trade Rumors Front Office in 2020 to close the gap on ad revenue that is no longer there.

Requiring a subscription to read the Offseason Outlook series was not a decision I made lightly.  These posts take roughly three hours each to write, and the majority of them receive modest traffic.  The ad revenue on the series was not close to covering the time required to produce it.  I take great pride in our work on the Offseason Outlook series, and I think it’s worth paying for.

We have a couple of other time-consuming major original offseason features  that also don’t pay for themselves, in our arbitration projections and our Top 50 Free Agents list.  I have no current plans to put those behind the paywall.

I think we add a lot of value to news posts as well, particularly on write-ups of major signings and trades.  News posts, which make up the vast majority of MLBTR, remain free.  A portion of our more time-consuming opinion-based analysis has been exclusive to subscribers for over four years now.  Other original work, such as our recent free agent preview by position, remains free to all.

It can be difficult to find a balance and make the math work.  If you’re here strictly for the news, that’s still free.  If you find value in our analysis and tools and have the means, then I hope you’ll consider a Trade Rumors Front Office subscription.

I have not raised the price on Trade Rumors Front Office in four-plus years, even as we’ve continually added benefits.  It remains $29.89 per year.  Benefits include:

  • Ad-free browsing experience
  • Exclusive weekly articles from Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco
  • Offseason Outlook and Offseason in Review series covering all 30 teams
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MLBTR is approaching its 19th anniversary in November.  It’s a privilege to do this for a living, and we value everyone who chooses to visit the site.  I intend to continue running MLBTR as an independent small business for as long as possible.  Enjoy the playoffs; we’re hard at work preparing for another exciting offseason!

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Newsstand

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Mets Considering Kodai Senga For NLDS Roster

By Anthony Franco | October 3, 2024 at 11:17pm CDT

The Mets are considering activating Kodai Senga for their National League Division Series roster, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post (X link). The Athletic’s Will Sammon writes that the decision hinges on whether the Mets want to devote a spot to another pitcher who would be limited to short outings.

New York was a couple outs away from not having a call to make. Pete Alonso’s dramatic three-run homer off Devin Williams in the ninth inning erased a 2-0 deficit. The Mets stunned the Brewers to advance to the NLDS for the first time since their 2015 pennant campaign. They’ll head to Philadelphia for a set with the NL East champion Phillies. The series begins on Saturday afternoon. Zack Wheeler will get the ball for the Phils against a yet unannounced Mets starter. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweeted tonight that Tylor Megill is the leading candidate to start Game 1.

Senga isn’t an option for the rotation but could contribute an inning out of the bullpen. The 31-year-old righty threw 25 pitches in a bullpen session earlier this week. Senga’s second MLB season has been almost completely wiped out by injury. Spring Training shoulder issues kept him out until July. He sustained a significant calf strain during his first start back and has been on the injured list since then. Senga made a push for a return late in the regular season that was halted by triceps soreness.

New York has leaned heavily on the bullpen, especially their closer, as they’ve battled to keep their season alive. They used four relievers — including a 40-pitch outing from Edwin Díaz — to clinch a playoff spot in the first game of Monday’s doubleheader against Atlanta. That afforded them the luxury of staying away from leverage arms in Game 2 of the twin bill, but they didn’t have any off days before heading to Milwaukee.

Manager Carlos Mendoza called upon José Buttó for two innings and Ryne Stanek for a frame on Tuesday. The Mets used Reed Garrett, Stanek, and Phil Maton for an inning each on Wednesday. (Maton blew the lead and took the loss.) Buttó surrendered back-to back homers and was quickly pulled tonight, so the Mets turned to Díaz for another 39 pitches to keep their deficit at two going into the ninth. David Peterson got the ball in the bottom half and locked down the save. Tomorrow’s off day will help, but the Phils will obviously have the fresher bullpen in the early portion of the series.

The Mets carried the maximum 13 pitchers for the Wild Card series. They’ll need to drop at least one to make room for Megill, who was left off the Wild Card roster because the Mets didn’t need five starters. Activating Senga would drop a second pitcher. Max Kranick, Adam Ottavino, Huascar Brazobán and Danny Young did not pitch in the Wild Card series. Kranick and Brazobán are probably the likeliest to be pushed off the roster. The Mets would also need to make a 40-man roster move to activate Senga from the 60-day IL. That’s a formality that could be achieved by moving Paul Blackburn or Dedniel Núñez to the 60-day IL.

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New York Mets Kodai Senga

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Ha-Seong Kim Switches Agencies, Hires Boras Corporation

By Nick Deeds | October 3, 2024 at 8:33pm CDT

Infielder Ha-Seong Kim has switched his representation, according to a report from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Kim will now be represented by the Boras Corporation going forward.

Kim, 29 later this month, is seemingly poised to enter free agency this November. The infielder’s current contract with the Padres includes a mutual option for the 2025 season but Kim is widely expected to decline that $8MM option in favor of a $2MM buyout and test the open market. It will be Kim’s first unencumbered trip through free agency after signing with San Diego on a $28MM guarantee prior to the 2021 season after being posted to MLB by the Kiwoom Heroes of South Korea’s KBO. While Kim was eligible to sign with any of the league’s 30 clubs for any amount of money, the posting system comes with a few caveats that don’t exist for a typical free agent such as the posting fee that must be paid to the player’s former club and specific windows during which negotiations must take place.

Without those restrictions, Kim is likely to enjoy a different experience in his second time through MLB’s free agent process. That’s also due to his performance on the field, of course, as Kim has emerged as one of the top infield options in this winter’s class thanks to the average offense and excellent defense he flashed during his time in San Diego. Since becoming an everyday player with the Padres in 2022, Kim has slashed a solid .250/.336/.385 that’s good for a 106 wRC+, 6% better than the league average hitter. He also flashed the best plate discipline of his career this season with a 12.3% walk rate against an excellent 16.4% strikeout rate, and has chipped in 60 stolen bases in 74 attempts over the past two years.

While Kim’s offensive development since coming to stateside ball has been impressive, the main selling point of the infielder’s profile remains his strong defense. Kim ranks 17th among all infielders over the last three years in Outs Above Average with a +21 figure and is the 11th-best infielder over that same timeframe by DRS with a +30 that is only bested by Taylor Walls, Miguel Rojas, and Dansby Swanson among shortstops during that time. Kim’s defensive value is further enhanced by his versatility, as he has shown himself to be a quality defender at both second and third base in addition to shortstop.

With that being said, Kim’s outlook in free agency grew quite a bit murkier last week when it was announced that the infielder is set to undergo shoulder surgery this offseason. With so much of Kim’s value tied to his defensive value, the prospect of a major procedure on his throwing shoulder could worry some potential suitors this winter and may complicate a free agency that otherwise appeared to leave Kim in position to secure a strong multi-year guarantee. It’s a somewhat unusual situation that Kim will now turn to the Boras Corporation, the agency run by high-profile agent Scott Boras, to navigate.

Kim joins other high-profile free agents in the upcoming class such as Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Pete Alonso in being represented by Boras, who drew plenty of attention last winter as the free agencies of a handful of his top clients dragged into Spring Training. Each of the so-called “Boras Four,” comprised of Snell, Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger, and Jordan Montgomery, wound up taking short-term deals that generally met expectations in terms of average annual value but fell well short in overall guarantee. It’s an approach that’s drawn mixed reviews, with Montgomery switching his representation amid a career-worst season with the Diamondbacks while Snell praised Boras and now appears likely to head into free agency under his guidance for the second time in as many seasons. Chapman signed a hefty extension with the Giants last month in lieu of returning to the open market this winter while Bellinger’s upcoming decision on his player option remains up in the air.

Should Kim’s foray into free agency not yield the strong payday that was expected prior to the announcement of his impending shoulder surgery, it wouldn’t necessarily be a surprise to see Kim opt for a shorter-term, option-laden deal with a high average annual value similar to the ones signed by each of those aforementioned players this winter. After all, it’s a strategy that worked out quite well for Chapman, Snell, and even Boras clients from before last winter such as Carlos Correa and Max Scherzer.

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San Diego Padres Ha-Seong Kim Scott Boras

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Latest On The Braves’ Rotation Plans

By Nick Deeds | October 3, 2024 at 7:16pm CDT

On the heels of the Braves’ abrupt elimination from the postseason after being swept out of the Wild Card Series in two games by the Padres, Atlanta will now turn its attention to the coming offseason.

The dominating narrative of the club’s winter figures to be the future of longtime starter Max Fried, who has been a stalwart of the club’s rotation for the past half decade but is slated to hit free agency in November. The 30-year-old southpaw figures to be one of the better starting pitching options on the free agent market this winter alongside former NL Cy Young award winners Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell. In 112 starts since the start of the 2020 season, Fried has pitched to a sterling 2.81 ERA (151 ERA+) with a 3.11 FIP in 659 innings of work. That’s the sort of run prevention talent that’s sure to score a significant payday in free agency, even in spite of his relatively pedestrian 23.6% strikeout rate over that same window.

What’s unclear at this point, however, is how involved the Braves will be in the bidding process for his services in 2025 and beyond. Fried is a key part of the club’s nucleus of talent and was a major piece of their 2021 World Series championship, but the same could also be said of both Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson when the pair hit free agency. Both Freeman and Swanson ultimately signed hefty contracts elsewhere while the Braves managed to continue to contend without them. As noted by The Athletic’s David O’Brien, it would not be a surprise to see the club follow a similar path with Fried. After all, Atlanta figures to welcome Spencer Strider back into the rotation sometime early next year, and the immensely talented righty would form a frightening front-end duo with likely NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale.

Such a fearsome pairing at the front of the rotation could make the Braves comfortable with losing Fried, and O’Brien suggests that the club’s offseason shopping list may only require adding a veteran depth starter who can help fill things out behind Strider, Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, and Spencer Schwellenbach. While such a pursuit “seems likely,” O’Brien does note that the club could also simply stick with its deep internal reservoir of optionable starting talent that includes Hurston Waldrep, Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Ian Anderson.

Both Elder and Anderson have enjoyed significant success in the majors previously, while the club trusted Smith-Shawver to take the ball in Game 1 against the Padres earlier this week and Waldrep entered 2024 as a consensus top-50 prospect int he sport. It’s certainly feasible that one or more of those arms could emerge as a quality piece of the rotation mix in Atlanta next year, the quartet posted a combined 7.23 ERA in 61 innings of work in the majors this year. What’s more, only Elder has significant recent big league experience among that group: Waldrep and Smith-Shawver have combined for just nine total big league appearances in their careers, while Anderson last pitched in the majors back in 2022.

With such uncertainty surrounding those young options, it seems like adding another proven starter to the rotation mix should be a priority for the club even if they don’t aggressively pursue a reunion with Fried. Should the Braves shy away from the top of the market this winter, a handful of interesting mid-rotation arms should be available such as Michael Wacha, Andrew Heaney, and Luis Severino. Even a back-end starter in the mold of Michael Lorenzen or Martin Perez could be a solid addition that would provide the club with some stability in the #5 spot of its rotation while still leaving the door open for one of that aforementioned group of internal arms to seize a rotation spot. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently previewed the upcoming class of free agent starters, many of whom could be plausible fits for the club’s needs this winter.

Even if the club does pursue an innings-eating veteran for the back of its rotation, O’Brien notes that the club re-signing Charlie Morton for that role is “unlikely.” He goes on to relay that the organization believes the soon to be 41-year-old veteran could opt to call it a career rather than continue pitching in 2025 despite his roughly league average 4.19 ERA in 30 starts with Atlanta this year. A Florida native, Morton has preferred to pitch close to home in recent years, having pitched two seasons with the Rays from 2019-20 before pitching for Atlanta in each of the past four seasons. Given that, it would hardly be a surprise if the veteran decided it was time to hang ’em up and spend more time at home with his family even as Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes that Morton has so far said that he isn’t ready to make any announcements about his future one way or the other at this point.

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Atlanta Braves Charlie Morton Max Fried

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Mets Outright Eddy Alvarez

By Steve Adams | October 3, 2024 at 5:19pm CDT

Infielder Eddy Alvarez went unclaimed on waivers after being designated for assignment by the Mets earlier this week, per the league transaction log at MLB.com. He’s been assigned outright to Triple-A Syracuse but can reject that assignment to become a free agent — a path he’ll all but certainly take.

The Mets acquired Alvarez from the Red Sox in exchange for cash — a rare September swap that was allowed because Alvarez had been on a minor league contract at the time of the deal. New York selected him to the big league roster to help patch over its infield depth while dealing with multiple injuries. He went hitless in 11 trips to the plate and also pitched a scoreless inning of mop-up relief in a blowout loss. Alvarez was ineligible for the Mets’ postseason roster because he joined the organization after Aug. 31.

In parts of four big league campaigns, Alvarez is a .170/.257/.244 hitter in 154 plate appearances. He’s a career .277/.381/.467 hitter in eight Triple-A campaigns, however. He’s played primarily shortstop in his pro career but also has nearly 2000 innings at second base, more than 700 innings at third base, more than 300 innings in both outfield corners and 106 innings in center field over the course of 11 professional seasons.

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New York Mets Transactions Eddy Alvarez

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11 Players Elect Free Agency

By Darragh McDonald | October 3, 2024 at 4:17pm CDT

As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com log.

Catchers

  • Seby Zavala (Mariners)

Infielders

  • Keston Hiura (Angels)

Outfielders

  • Edward Olivares (Pirates)

Pitchers

  • Dan Altavilla (Royals)
  • Matt Andriese (Marlins)
  • Aaron Brooks (Athletics)
  • Justin Bruihl (Pirates)
  • Paolo Espino (Blue Jays)
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians)
  • Geoff Hartlieb (Rockies)
  • Jake Woodford (Pirates)
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Athletics Cleveland Guardians Colorado Rockies Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Angels Miami Marlins Pittsburgh Pirates Seattle Mariners Toronto Blue Jays Transactions Aaron Brooks Anthony Gose Dan Altavilla Edward Olivares Geoff Hartlieb Jake Woodford Justin Bruihl Keston Hiura Matt Andriese Paolo Espino Seby Zavala

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Brent Strom Won’t Return As Diamondbacks Pitching Coach

By Steve Adams | October 3, 2024 at 2:57pm CDT

2:57pm: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that Strom, Fetters and Carlson have been fired by the Diamondbacks. John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 adds that there are no other changes expected for the coaching staff and suggests the new pitching coach could be hired from outside the organization.

2:53pm: Changes are coming to the D-backs coaching staff in 2025. Pitching coach Brent Strom, bullpen coach Mike Fetters and assistant pitching coach Dan Carlson will not return in their current roles, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports. It’s not clear whether any of the three will be reassigned and hold a new position within the organization or if they’re moving on entirely.

The 75-year-old Strom’s run as Arizona’s pitching coach will draw to a close after three seasons. The longtime Astros coach hinted at retirement following the 2021 season and announced shortly thereafter that he would not return for a ninth season in Houston. At the time he stepped away from the Astros he noted “I haven’t had a summer in a long time” and quipped “I may just go lie on a beach in Mexico.”

Less than two weeks later, he was hired by the Diamondbacks. It was a move that surprised many, given his prior comments, but Strom resides in the Tucson area and felt the fresh challenge of working with a new organization near his home was too tempting to pass up.

Time will tell whether he plans to continue coaching, but he’s now spent four decades as either a major league coach (Astros, Royals, D-backs) or a minor league pitching coordinator/pitching instructor (Dodgers, Expos, Padres, Cardinals). It would certainly be understandable if he finally plans to step away from the game and enjoy retired life, though he’s among the most respected pitching minds in the game and would surely have interest from other clubs in a variety of roles — if the D-backs aren’t bringing him back in another capacity, of course.

Fetters has been with the D-backs organization for more than a decade, spending time as a scout before joining the coaching staff in 2012. He’s been Arizona’s bullpen coach for the past six seasons. Now 59 years old, he was a first-round pick by the Angels back in 1986 and went on to enjoy a 16-year career as a big league reliever, totaling more than 700 innings and piling up exactly 100 saves. The Diamondbacks are the only organization for which he has ever coached.

Carlson, 54, pitched in parts of four big league seasons and has been the team’s assistant pitching coach for three years. Prior to that role, he was a minor league pitching coach with the D-backs and also served as the organization’s minor league pitching coordinator.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Brent Strom Dan Carlson Mike Fetters

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Orioles General Manager Expects To Have Greater Payroll Capacity

By Darragh McDonald | October 3, 2024 at 2:20pm CDT

The Orioles were eliminated from the postseason by the Royals yesterday, sending them into offseason mode. General manager Mike Elias spoke to the members of the media today to address various topics related to the club. Most notably, he said that manager Brandon Hyde would return in 2025, though he was noncommittal about the rest of the coaching staff. Additionally, he said that he is “pretty confident” that payroll will be going up next year. Details were relayed by Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner (X link) and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (X link).

It was another good season for Baltimore in a sense, as they won 91 games and made the playoffs for a second consecutive year. On the other hand, it was also disappointing for many fans. The O’s won 101 games in 2023 and had a seemingly endless supply of young talent, which set expectations fairly high coming into 2024. The club was strong for much of the 2024 season but limped to the finish line with 10 fewer wins than the year before, settling for a wild card berth. For a second straight year, they were quickly swept out of the postseason.

The disappointment will naturally lead to some finger pointing, though it seems Elias isn’t placing blame at Hyde’s feet. It’s always tough to discern whether a manager deserves credit and/or blame for a team’s performance and there were certainly things that were beyond the skipper’s control this year.

Rotation injuries were a key storyline for the O’s this year, as each of Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells each required UCL surgery in June. The club tried to address the rotation at the deadline by acquiring Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers. The Eflin pickup worked out well, but Rogers struggled after the jersey swap and waas optioned down to the minors. The rotation issues were further compounded when Grayson Rodriguez hit the shelf with a lat injury in August, which eventually ended his season. Some players also just struggled as the season wore on, with Craig Kimbrel and Adley Rutschman being two prominent examples.

While Hyde’s contributions to the 2024 results can be debated, it seems Elias and the franchise have decided that a new skipper won’t be necessary. The club hasn’t been forthcoming about Hyde’s contractual status. It was reported in April of 2022 that Hyde was under contract beyond that season as part of an extension that was quietly worked out in 2020, but with few details available apart from that. He eventually won American League Manager of the Year honors for the 2023 season and stuck around for 2024. It’s unclear if that 2020 extension is still going or if the two sides have done another deal away from prying eyes, but it seems Hyde will be back in the dugout next year regardless.

Elias and his front office team will be tasked with building a roster that gives Hyde a chance to have a better finish in 2025. There will be some notable subtractions, as the O’s are set to lose ace Corbin Burnes and slugger Anthony Santander to free agency. The departure of Burnes will deprive them of a star who posted a 2.92 ERA over 32 starts, plus eight innings of one-run ball in the playoffs, while Santander’s exit takes a 44-homer bat out of the lineup.

The fact that Elias expects to have more financial resources to supplement the roster is good news, though it’s also not surprising. The Angelos family wasn’t investing much in the club during the final years of their reign. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, 2024 was the sixth straight year in which the club ran a bottom five payroll.

New owner David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club was officially approved by the league at the end of March and it’s generally been expected that he would ramp up spending from those recent low points. The aforementioned Eflin trade was perhaps a positive omen in that regard, as the righty is owed $18MM next year. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Kimbrel’s $13MM one-year pact is the largest deal given out since Elias took over as GM in November of 2018. Adding $18MM to next year’s budget, plus the roughly one third of Eflin’s $11MM salary in 2024 that was still to be paid out, could have been a signal that Rubenstein had signed off on giving Elias more spending power.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that Elias is going to go out and spend like the proverbial drunken sailor. “We’ll see what happens,” the GM said in regards to the payroll question, per Jake Rill of MLB.com on X. “We’re going to be smart about it. And if it doesn’t happen for some reason, it’s not going to be because the financial support wasn’t there. It’s going to be because the people running this team thought it was the right thing to do from a number of levels on a case-by-case basis. But I want to reiterate that I don’t expect that to be the case.”

Ultimately, it may be something of a fresh start for Elias and his team. They have seemingly had very little financial resources to work with, which was fine for much of his tenure. He and the club were primarily focused on building a pipeline of young prospects and have succeeded. Just about every outlet has ranked them as having one of the top farm systems in recent years, if not the very top, which has allowed them to fill out their roster with young talent like Rutschman, Bradish, Rodriguez, Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, Jackson Holliday and many more.

Some have argued that Elias should have had more willingness to trade that young talent as the club became competitive in recent years, particularly for more pitching depth that could have helped them overcome their injury woes this season, though perhaps the uncertainty around the club’s future payrolls led to some hesitation to give up cheap and controllable players.

How the new environment will change the club’s behavior will be an interesting offseason storyline. The free agent market will feature a number of big names, with Burnes the top pitcher while star position players like Juan Soto, Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso and others will be available. Suddenly splurging on one of the top names would be a surprise but it should be possible for the O’s if the will is there. Per Cot’s, the club had a payroll as high as $164MM before their recent rebuilding period. They were only at $93MM in 2024 while RosterResource has them committed to just $37MM next year. Arbitration raises and some club options will bring that number up but there should be lots of powder dry if the club decides to be aggressive.

The club still has a fairly strong position player group, even with Santander set to depart, so pitching would be the obvious place to spend. Félix Bautista is expected to return after missing 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery. That will bolster the bullpen, but further reinforcements wouldn’t hurt. The rotation without Burnes could feature Eflin, Rodriguez and Dean Kremer. Young pitchers like Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott could work their way into the mix, while Rogers could get back on track after his disappointing season. Bradish and Wells could get back into the mix by midseason, but Means is slated for free agency.

It seems like Albert Suárez will be an option as well. Though he has far less than six years of service time, players who return from pitching in Japan or Korea often get provisions in their new contracts that allow them to become free agents regardless of service time considerations. That doesn’t appear to be the case with Suárez, even though he pitched in the KBO in 2022 and 2023. Per Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun (X link), Elias said this summer that the O’s would be able to keep him beyond 2024.

There are a number of options there but there’s still an argument for trying to bring back Burnes or another talented starter. Blake Snell is likely to opt out and join Burnes as a former Cy Young winner on the market. Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Luis Severino and plenty of other notable names will be out there as well. As recently as a year ago, the idea of connecting the Orioles to free agents of that caliber would have been a stretch, but it will seemingly be more plausible going forward.

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