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Orioles General Manager Expects To Have Greater Payroll Capacity

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The Orioles were eliminated from the postseason by the Royals yesterday, sending them into offseason mode. General manager Mike Elias spoke to the members of the media today to address various topics related to the club. Most notably, he said that manager Brandon Hyde would return in 2025, though he was noncommittal about the rest of the coaching staff. Additionally, he said that he is “pretty confident” that payroll will be going up next year. Details were relayed by Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner (X link) and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (X link).

It was another good season for Baltimore in a sense, as they won 91 games and made the playoffs for a second consecutive year. On the other hand, it was also disappointing for many fans. The O’s won 101 games in 2023 and had a seemingly endless supply of young talent, which set expectations fairly high coming into 2024. The club was strong for much of the 2024 season but limped to the finish line with 10 fewer wins than the year before, settling for a wild card berth. For a second straight year, they were quickly swept out of the postseason.

The disappointment will naturally lead to some finger pointing, though it seems Elias isn’t placing blame at Hyde’s feet. It’s always tough to discern whether a manager deserves credit and/or blame for a team’s performance and there were certainly things that were beyond the skipper’s control this year.

Rotation injuries were a key storyline for the O’s this year, as each of Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells each required UCL surgery in June. The club tried to address the rotation at the deadline by acquiring Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers. The Eflin pickup worked out well, but Rogers struggled after the jersey swap and waas optioned down to the minors. The rotation issues were further compounded when Grayson Rodriguez hit the shelf with a lat injury in August, which eventually ended his season. Some players also just struggled as the season wore on, with Craig Kimbrel and Adley Rutschman being two prominent examples.

While Hyde’s contributions to the 2024 results can be debated, it seems Elias and the franchise have decided that a new skipper won’t be necessary. The club hasn’t been forthcoming about Hyde’s contractual status. It was reported in April of 2022 that Hyde was under contract beyond that season as part of an extension that was quietly worked out in 2020, but with few details available apart from that. He eventually won American League Manager of the Year honors for the 2023 season and stuck around for 2024. It’s unclear if that 2020 extension is still going or if the two sides have done another deal away from prying eyes, but it seems Hyde will be back in the dugout next year regardless.

Elias and his front office team will be tasked with building a roster that gives Hyde a chance to have a better finish in 2025. There will be some notable subtractions, as the O’s are set to lose ace Corbin Burnes and slugger Anthony Santander to free agency. The departure of Burnes will deprive them of a star who posted a 2.92 ERA over 32 starts, plus eight innings of one-run ball in the playoffs, while Santander’s exit takes a 44-homer bat out of the lineup.

The fact that Elias expects to have more financial resources to supplement the roster is good news, though it’s also not surprising. The Angelos family wasn’t investing much in the club during the final years of their reign. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, 2024 was the sixth straight year in which the club ran a bottom five payroll.

New owner David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club was officially approved by the league at the end of March and it’s generally been expected that he would ramp up spending from those recent low points. The aforementioned Eflin trade was perhaps a positive omen in that regard, as the righty is owed $18MM next year. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Kimbrel’s $13MM one-year pact is the largest deal given out since Elias took over as GM in November of 2018. Adding $18MM to next year’s budget, plus the roughly one third of Eflin’s $11MM salary in 2024 that was still to be paid out, could have been a signal that Rubenstein had signed off on giving Elias more spending power.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that Elias is going to go out and spend like the proverbial drunken sailor. “We’ll see what happens,” the GM said in regards to the payroll question, per Jake Rill of MLB.com on X. “We’re going to be smart about it. And if it doesn’t happen for some reason, it’s not going to be because the financial support wasn’t there. It’s going to be because the people running this team thought it was the right thing to do from a number of levels on a case-by-case basis. But I want to reiterate that I don’t expect that to be the case.”

Ultimately, it may be something of a fresh start for Elias and his team. They have seemingly had very little financial resources to work with, which was fine for much of his tenure. He and the club were primarily focused on building a pipeline of young prospects and have succeeded. Just about every outlet has ranked them as having one of the top farm systems in recent years, if not the very top, which has allowed them to fill out their roster with young talent like Rutschman, Bradish, Rodriguez, Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, Jackson Holliday and many more.

Some have argued that Elias should have had more willingness to trade that young talent as the club became competitive in recent years, particularly for more pitching depth that could have helped them overcome their injury woes this season, though perhaps the uncertainty around the club’s future payrolls led to some hesitation to give up cheap and controllable players.

How the new environment will change the club’s behavior will be an interesting offseason storyline. The free agent market will feature a number of big names, with Burnes the top pitcher while star position players like Juan Soto, Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso and others will be available. Suddenly splurging on one of the top names would be a surprise but it should be possible for the O’s if the will is there. Per Cot’s, the club had a payroll as high as $164MM before their recent rebuilding period. They were only at $93MM in 2024 while RosterResource has them committed to just $37MM next year. Arbitration raises and some club options will bring that number up but there should be lots of powder dry if the club decides to be aggressive.

The club still has a fairly strong position player group, even with Santander set to depart, so pitching would be the obvious place to spend. Félix Bautista is expected to return after missing 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery. That will bolster the bullpen, but further reinforcements wouldn’t hurt. The rotation without Burnes could feature Eflin, Rodriguez and Dean Kremer. Young pitchers like Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott could work their way into the mix, while Rogers could get back on track after his disappointing season. Bradish and Wells could get back into the mix by midseason, but Means is slated for free agency.

It seems like Albert Suárez will be an option as well. Though he has far less than six years of service time, players who return from pitching in Japan or Korea often get provisions in their new contracts that allow them to become free agents regardless of service time considerations. That doesn’t appear to be the case with Suárez, even though he pitched in the KBO in 2022 and 2023. Per Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun (X link), Elias said this summer that the O’s would be able to keep him beyond 2024.

There are a number of options there but there’s still an argument for trying to bring back Burnes or another talented starter. Blake Snell is likely to opt out and join Burnes as a former Cy Young winner on the market. Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Luis Severino and plenty of other notable names will be out there as well. As recently as a year ago, the idea of connecting the Orioles to free agents of that caliber would have been a stretch, but it will seemingly be more plausible going forward.

Brown: Astros May Have To Get “Creative” With Payroll

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The Astros’ incredible run of seven consecutive runs to the American League Championship Series ended yesterday when they ran into a scorching-hot Tigers club helmed by former Houston skipper A.J. Hinch. Although the ’Stros had their shortest season since 2016 and have a number of high-profile free agents coming off the books, general manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada both made clear in addressing the team’s beat that there’s no plan to step back. Houston will unsurprisingly take aim at another deep postseason run next year, although the looming offseason could be one punctuated by some tighter-than-usual financial parameters.

“I think we’re going to have to make some wise decisions as to – are there younger players that we can call up and put in certain roles to maybe save some money here and … allocate that money to other places,” Brown said Thursday (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. “…We may have to get a little bit creative.”

That’s an ominous sentiment for any fan to hear from a team’s GM at the onset of the offseason. A look at Houston’s payroll, however, reveals a similarly ominous setup. The Astros opened the 2024 season with a payroll around $235MM and finished out the year north of $244MM, per RosterResource. They already have $147MM in guaranteed contracts on next year’s books (including dead-money commitments to Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero). That doesn’t include a 10-player arbitration class — headlined by Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker — projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to cost more than $57MM. Add in pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and the Astros are sitting around the $212MM mark next year before making a single addition.

In the absence of any notable free agent departures, perhaps that’d be workable, but the Astros will see franchise cornerstone Alex Bregman reach the open market for the first time in his career next month. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander is also a free agent, as is deadline pickup Yusei Kikuchi, who thrived in the Houston rotation down the stretch. Relievers Caleb Ferguson, Hector Neris and Kendall Graveman are free agents as well, as are role players Jason Heyward and Ben Gamel.

Bregman, of course, is the most notable name of the bunch. Espada plainly stated that he hopes Bregman will return and heaped praise onto the former No. 2 overall pick for not only his on-field contributions but the manner in which he’s been the heart and soul of the team’s clubhouse.

“I’ve talked a lot about how much I love the individual, the human,” Espada said of Bregman (X link via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart). “I think what makes this team really good is the character of the people in clubhouse. He’s one of the best I’ve ever been around. I would love to have Bregman playing third base for us next year.”

Whether that’s feasible remains an open question. Teammate Jose Altuve has stumped for Bregman’s return in recent days — even before the team’s elimination — and Brown has said since being hired in the 2022-23 offseason that he hopes to keep Bregman in Houston for the entirety of his career. That talk has yet to manifest in the form of a contract, although the Astros are reportedly expected to put forth a formal offer soon. Brown doubled down on his hope of keeping Bregman and plans to talk with agent Scott Boras about a reunion (X link via McTaggart), but there are reasons to be skeptical of a deal coming to fruition.

The Astros, under owner Jim Crane, have never given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM deal — nor have they given out a contract worth a larger guarantee than Jose Altuve’s most recent $151MM extension. Josh Hader’s five-year contract is the lengthiest and largest in guaranteed money that Houston has given to a free agent under current ownership. Bregman stands as one of the top-five free agents on this season’s market, arguably the No. 2 or 3 name in this year’s class behind Juan Soto.

Hitting the market in advance of his age-31 season, Bregman will have a case for a six- or possibly seven-year deal. He’s a year younger than fellow third baseman Matt Chapman, who just inked a six-year, $151MM extension to stay in San Francisco. Seven-year guarantees for position players beginning in their age-31 season or later are rare, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, though Marcus Semien (seven years, $175MM with the Rangers) stands as a recent prominent example.

Even if Bregman is limited to “only” six years, he’ll surely seek a larger guarantee than Chapman just received last month. Chapman didn’t have the benefit of open-market bidding, and Bregman, even if he can’t match Chapman’s wizardry with the glove, is a quality defender who has been the more consistent offensive player of the pair. In addition to the Astros, clubs like the Yankees, Tigers, Blue Jays, Mariners, Royals and Nationals could be in the market for third base help. Unexpected suitors frequently emerge in pursuit of top-tier free agents, too.

Given Bregman’s tenure with the team and value on and off the field, it’s certainly feasible that Crane could push beyond his previous comfort levels to keep him in the fold. In that case, Bregman would likely push Houston close to $240MM of payroll obligations — or at least north of $230MM on a backloaded deal. Creatively structuring the contract, however, wouldn’t impact the luxury tax in the same way it does bottom-line payroll. Luxury tax is calculated based on contracts’ average annual value; re-signing Bregman would push the Astros into tax territory for a second straight season and only the third time under Crane’s ownership.

Brown left open the door for virtually any possibility, telling reporters the Astros “are not taking anything off the table in terms of what we’ll do” (link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Still, it’s hard to envision a scenario where they both re-sign Bregman and add the bullpen pieces he also said will be a focus this winter (X link via McTaggart). Houston could always turn to the trade market to drop some payroll from other areas of the roster, but they surely won’t consider moving Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker or Valdez, and the contracts of Josh Hader and Lance McCullers Jr. aren’t going to draw interest from other clubs. Ryan Pressly’s remaining one year and $14MM could be movable, but flipping him would only further the need to add bullpen arms.

One area the Astros don’t seem likely to spend heavily is in the rotation. Brown called next year’s staff “stacked.” The Astros will bring back Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti. Injured righties McCullers and Luis Garcia will hopefully be ready for the start of the season after missing all of 2024. Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy (if he’s tendered a contract) and J.P. France could all be midseason reinforcements. Prospect Ryan Gusto, 25, had a nice season in Triple-A (3.70 ERA, 22.6 K%, 8.5 BB%, 148 1/3 innings).

It’s a group that, as of right now, doesn’t include Verlander. Brown touched on the subject of the three-time Cy Young winner (X link via McTaggart), noting that it “sounds like he wants to come back” but that he’ll “have some discussions with our front office … as to what’s best for the team.” Verlander spent much of the 2024 season on the injured list due to shoulder and neck injuries. He struggled badly enough down the stretch in his final six starts (8.89 ERA) that he wasn’t included on the team’s roster for the Wild Card Series against Detroit. With the Astros facing mounting payroll issues and already possessing a fairly deep stock of arms, a reunion may not be in the cards.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

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The Angels are coming off the worst season in franchise history. The farm system isn't highly regarded, while the team didn't get much out of its two highest-paid players. No team has a longer active playoff drought and that's unlikely to change in the next season or two.

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2025 Draft Lottery Odds Finalized

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The 2024 regular season is now complete, which also means that the details of the upcoming draft lottery are now locked in. Carlos Collazo of Baseball America laid out all the details in a post this morning.

In an effort to reduce tanking, the Players Association pushed for a lottery in the most recent collective bargaining agreement. Starting with the 2023 draft, the top six picks were determined by a lottery held at the Winter Meetings, with each club that misses the postseason having a shot at the top pick. Teams with worse records still have the best odds of getting the top picks, but nothing is guaranteed. One year ago, the Guardians won the top pick despite having just a 2% chance of doing so, eventually using that pick on second baseman Travis Bazzana. If two teams have the same record, their record in the previous season serves as a tiebreaker.

The three teams with the worst records usually have the same odds of getting the top pick but there’s a notable exception. To discourage teams from undergoing yearslong rebuilds, the lottery rules limit how often a club can receive a lottery pick. Revenue-sharing recipients can’t have lottery picks more than two years in a row while other clubs can’t have lottery picks in consecutive years.

Since the White Sox aren’t a revenue-sharing recipient and had a lottery pick in 2024, the rules state that they can’t pick higher than 10th in 2025. That’s despite a dismal 121-loss season that was easily the worst in baseball. The Athletics are a revenue-sharing club but had lottery picks in both 2023 and 2024, meaning they can’t pick higher than 11th next year.

Those clubs will still have balls in the lottery but they will be ignored if they win, which actually happened last year. Per J.J. Cooper of Baseball America, the Nationals would have secured the first overall pick in 2024 but they were ineligible due to having a lottery pick in 2023. The draw was redone, which is when the Guardians got the top pick.

Here are the lottery clubs and their odds of getting the top overall pick, adjusted to account for the fact that the White Sox and A’s aren’t eligible:

  1. Rockies (61-101): 22.45%
  2. Marlins (62-100): 22.45%
  3. Angels (63-99): 17.96%
  4. Nationals (71-91): 10.2%
  5. Blue Jays (74-88): 7.48%
  6. Pirates (76-86): 5.31%
  7. Reds (77-85): 3.67%
  8. Rangers (78-84): 2.45%
  9. Giants (80-82): 1.9%
  10. White Sox (41-121): Ineligible
  11. A’s (69-93): Ineligible
  12. Rays (80-82): 1.5%
  13. Red Sox (81-81): 1.22%
  14. Twins (82-80): 1.09%
  15. Cardinals (83-79): 0.82%
  16. Cubs (83-79): 0.68%
  17. Mariners (85-77): 0.54%
  18. Diamondbacks (89-73): 0.27%

Playoff teams will be sorted based on their postseason results. Teams that lose in the early rounds pick ahead of those that advance further. Teams that are eliminated in the same round are separated first by revenue-sharing status, with recipients picking earlier, and then in reverse order of regular season record. These rules only impact the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, teams pick in reverse order of standings, aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections.

Teams that surpass the third tier of the competitive balance tax ($277MM in 2024) have their top pick moved back ten spots. If such a club gets a top six pick, then that penalty is applied to their second-highest pick instead. That won’t be a factor this year. Per RosterResource, the three clubs projected to be over that CBT line are the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers. Atlanta appears to be right on the line but general manager Alex Anthopoulos has said the club stayed under, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal Constitution on X. Regardless, all those clubs made the postseason and won’t be in the lottery.

Justin Verlander Planning To Pitch In 2025

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It was a frustrating season for Justin Verlander but he doesn’t plan on it being his last. He told reporters, including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle, that he plans on pitching again in 2025. “I think I do feel like I have a lot more to give pitching-wise,” Verlander said. “This year was a tough year. Learned a lot from it.”

Verlander was only able to make 17 starts and log 90 1/3 innings this year. He started the year on the injured list due to some shoulder inflammation, though he was reinstated in the middle of April. After 10 starts with a 3.95 ERA and 21.3% strikeout rate, he went back on the IL due to neck discomfort, an injury that perhaps he never really recovered from. He was reinstated from the IL in August but opined last month that he may have returned too quickly. He reiterated that sentiment this week.

“I’ve talked to you guys about how I was feeling coming back and how I needed to push the issue a bit. Kind of a weird injury in the neck. Tried as best I could to get out there and be an asset to help this team in October but wasn’t able to do it.”

Verlander made seven more starts in August and September but his strikeout rate was just 14.6% in that time as he allowed 30 earned runs in 33 1/3 innings. That gave him an 8.10 ERA in that stretch and bumped his season-long ERA to 5.48, the highest of his career apart from a two-start debut back in 2005. With those poor results, the Astros decided to leave him off their postseason roster. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown started the club’s two games against the Tigers but Houston lost both, ending their season prior to the ALCS for the first time since 2016.

“Obviously, wasn’t pitching well enough to be a part of this series,” Verlander said. “But having an offseason to kind of get things right, I definitely feel like I want to continue to pitch and compete. And I’m not ready to step away yet.”

Despite the rough campaign, Verlander is determined to keep going, which isn’t surprising. Way back in 2018, he told Jon Morosi of MLB.com that he wanted to pitch until he was 45 if he could. He is still a few years away from that marker, as he is set to turn 42 in February.

Perhaps the health issues give him an explanation for his rough results, but increased injury woes are to be expected for a player pushing his career to great lengths. Keeping his body in a place where he can maximize his results will be a challenge but one that Verlander is surely going to tackle as best as he can.

It wasn’t too long ago that Verlander was still posting elite results. Though he missed most of 2020 and all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, he had an incredible bounce back in 2022. At the age of 39 and after missing almost two full years, he tossed 175 innings over 28 starts with a 1.75 ERA, 27.8% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate.

He won that year’s American League Cy Young award and went into free agency on a strong note. He was able to secure a two-year deal with a $43.33MM annual salary from the Mets, as well as a conditional player option for 2025. The first year of the deal went fine for Verlander personally, though the Mets fell out of contention and dealt him back to Houston at the deadline. He finished 2023 with a 3.22 ERA over 27 starts, despite his strikeout rate falling to 21.5%.

As mentioned, the results backed up here in 2024. The injuries preventing him from unlocking the $35MM player option, as he needed to toss 140 innings this year but finished well short of that. That means he is slated to return to the open market in a few weeks.

He will naturally have significantly less earning power than he did two years ago, both on account of his increased age and worse platform season, but there should still be a notable deal for him out there. Zack Greinke got $8.5MM from the Royals for 2023, his age-39 season. He secured that on the heels of a 2022 campaign in which he tossed 137 innings with a 3.68 ERA but a 12.5% strikeout rate. Lance Lynn had an ERA of 5.73 in 2023 but was still able to secure an $11MM guarantee from the Cardinals for 2024, his age-37 season. Corey Kluber got a $10MM guarantee from the Red Sox for 2023, his age-37 season, despite plenty of notable health concerns in prior seasons.

Verlander is going into his age-42 season and will be older than all of those pitchers were when those deals were signed, but he also has a more impressive overall track record and plenty of recent success he can point to. For a closer age comparison, Rich Hill got $8MM from the Pirates going into 2023, his age-43 season. He got that after tossing 124 1/3 innings with a 4.27 ERA the year prior. That’s a better platform year than what Verlander is current taking to free agency but Hill’s overall résumé can’t match up to Verlander’s.

In short, there will be opportunities available to Verlander, the question will be where. He has spent most of his recent career with the Astros, with that brief stint with the Mets the notable exception. Perhaps he and the club will reunite again, as they could use some rotation help. As of now, their 2025 starting pitching group projects to include Valdez, Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti. They could fill out that group with Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr. or J.P. France, though those pitchers are currently unknown quantities after missing most or all of 2024 while recovering from surgeries.

Per RosterResource, the Astros project to be have a spending gap of more than $100MM between 2024 and 2025, both in terms of pure payroll and their competitive balance tax number. However, that gap is actually narrower when considering the full picture. The arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz have the Astros slated to pay over $58MM to a group headlined by Valdez and Kyle Tucker. A couple of non-tenders will knock that down a bit, but the club also plans to discuss a significant contract with impending free agent Alex Bregman. They also have a hole at first base that will need to be addressed somehow.

Given that the club has traded for Verlander a couple of times and also re-signed him in free agency twice, it’s probably fair to expect that they will work something out regardless of where the budget goes in the months to come, though it’s also possible they decide it’s time to go in a different direction. Wherever he ends up, Verlander will be looking to add to a body of work that already has him as a lock for the Hall of Fame. He has 262 wins, the most among active pitchers, while his 3,416 strikeouts are 10th on the all-time list.

The Opener: Brewers, Mets, Musgrove, Freeman

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With three of the four Wild Card Series decided, here are three things we’ll be watching around baseball today:

1. Brewers force Game 3:

After dropping Game 1 of the Wild Card Series on Tuesday, the Brewers came back to beat the Mets 5-3 on Wednesday, tying the best-of-three series up at one game apiece. With the other three Wild Card Series already decided, the Brewers-Mets matchup will be the only game on the docket today, kicking off at 6:08pm CT.

Milwaukee will send rookie Tobias Myers (3.00 ERA, 3.99 SIERA in 138 IP) to the mound, while New York is set to counter with the veteran Jose Quintana (3.75 ERA, 4.58 SIERA in 170 1/3 IP). Myers has enjoyed the better overall season, but Quintana has been lights-out over his last six starts (0.74 ERA). The Mets also have a more rested bullpen at their disposal; Mets relievers have thrown six innings so far this series, while the Brewers bullpen has been tasked with 10 1/3.

The winner of tonight’s contest will head to Philadelphia to face the Phillies in the NLDS.

2. Elbow tightness for Joe Musgrove:

Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove exited his Game 2 start on Wednesday with tightness in his pitching elbow. While his teammates went on to win the game and secure a matchup with the Dodgers in the NLDS, this could be a tough blow for San Diego.

Initial tests came back negative, but the 31-year-old is set to undergo further testing today (per Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune). The extent of his injury will be unclear until then. For what it’s worth, Musgrove didn’t try to underplay it after the game: “Going out for that fourth inning,” he said, “Nothing felt right” (per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). Musgrove missed about half of the 2024 season with elbow inflammation related to bone spurs. He has looked excellent since his return from the IL (2.15 ERA in nine starts), but needless to say, another elbow injury is never a good sign – even though Musgrove believes this latest injury is “very different” from the issue that bothered him earlier this year (per Sanders).

Thankfully for the Padres, they still have plenty of starting depth to rely on. In addition to Michael King and Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish, Martín Pérez, and Matt Waldron are available to start in the NLDS.

3. Freddie Freeman making progress

Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman is making progress as he rehabs from the sprained ankle that kept him out for the final few games of the regular season. He is expected to face live pitching either today or tomorrow (per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). Manager Dave Roberts has maintained his optimism that the eight-time All-Star will be in the lineup against the Padres on Saturday. However, Roberts also admitted that Freeman won’t be at 100%, and it remains unclear how significantly his ankle will affect his defense and baserunning during the NLDS.

In additional Dodgers news, shortstop Miguel Rojas is also expected to be in the lineup for Game 1 of the NLDS (per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). He has been nursing an adductor strain. Like Freeman, Rojas will not be at full strength, but he seems to have made good progress in his recovery and will attempt to play through any discomfort.

MLB Mailbag: Dodgers, Cardinals, Yankees

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This week's mailbag delves into the Dodgers' rotation for 2025, the likelihood of Cody Bellinger opting out, the Cardinals' reset, the Yankees' infield, and much more.

Ben asks:

I'm curious as to how you expect the Dodgers to address their rotation this offseason. The team is laden with talented starters, yet the number of injuries is astounding. Do you expect the team to continue adopting a high-risk, high-reward approach? Will we see them sign a low upside inning-eater or two as insurance? How likely is a reunion with Buehler, and what might the season-opening rotation look like?

When I consider  Yoshinobu Yamamoto, I wouldn't say he had a higher injury risk than any other top starter the Dodgers could've gotten.  Nor was Trevor Bauer high-risk, healthwise.  Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir, and Rich Hill were high injury risk three or four-year deals, but those were eight to ten years ago.

Otherwise, Andrew Friedman has generally gone for one-year starting pitcher deals in free agency: James Paxton, Noah Syndergaard, Tyler Anderson, and Andrew Heaney in recent years.  Trade pickups have included Alex Wood, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Glasnow.

I don't know that I see a pattern there, other than eschewing long-term free agent deals for less youthful pitchers.  For example, if Max Fried is going to sign for five or six years, I don't expect the Dodgers to do that.  Innings eaters have not really been Friedman's thing, with the possible exception of Tyler Anderson coming off a 167-inning campaign.

You could argue that Buehler would be Friedman's type if he was coming from another team.  But the Dodgers had all year to try to get him on track this year and failed to do so, so my guess is that they will not re-sign him.

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Colton Cowser Diagnosed With Hand Fracture

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In the aftermath of their elimination at the hands of the Royals, the Orioles announced that rookie outfielder Colton Cowser broke his left hand. There’s no indication the injury will require surgery, but it could have some level of impact on Cowser’s offseason.

The injury occurred on one of the most consequential plays of tonight’s loss. The lefty-hitting outfielder came up against K.C. reliever Angel Zerpa with the bases loaded and one out in a 1-1 game in the bottom of the fifth. On a 1-2 count, Zerpa threw a 97 MPH fastball well up and in. Cowser nevertheless swung at the pitch, which struck him in his top hand (video link). He was called out on strikes and Zerpa escaped the inning when he got Adley Rutschman to ground out. Kansas City scored in the next half-inning and would hold on for a 2-1 victory.

Baltimore scored just once (on a Cedric Mullins home run) in the two-game sweep. It’s obviously not the way Coswer or the team wanted to end the year, though the former fifth overall pick had an impressive showing overall. Cowser hit 24 homers with a .242/.321/.447 slash over 561 plate appearances. He’ll very likely be a finalist in AL Rookie of the Year balloting.

Cowser proved himself to be a legitimate power threat, though he fanned in more than 30% of his plate appearances. The amount of swing-and-miss in his game has always been the biggest question mark. He’ll need to make more consistent contact to become an elite hitter, but the power and strong defense in left field already make him a good everyday player.

The O’s could be in for a shakeup in the outfield. Anthony Santander is a few weeks from free agency. He’ll receive and reject a qualifying offer on the heels of his 44-homer campaign. If Santander walks, the O’s could plug Heston Kjerstad into the corner opposite Cowser. Baltimore reportedly considered dealing Mullins this past summer. The former All-Star center fielder was mired in a months-long slump at the time, but he found his stride with a .266/.374/.457 line in the second half. Mullins is headed into his final season of arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting an $8.7MM salary.

Astros Expected To Present Offer To Alex Bregman In Near Future

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Alex Bregman may have played his final game as an Astro on Wednesday. Detroit’s 5-2 win completed a sweep that ended Houston’s run of seven consecutive trips at least as far as the American League Championship Series. That’ll push the Astros into offseason mode, where the focus will be on their star third baseman.

Alden González of ESPN writes that the Astros are expected to present a formal contract proposal to Bregman in the near future. While Houston has yet to put an official offer on the table, general manager Dana Brown has said on a few occasions they’d discuss the contract once the season ended. Brown again expressed optimism about the situation. “When you get down to it, I think he wants to stay here. I think we want him to stay here,” the GM told González earlier this week. “And it’s just a matter of coming up with some type of an agreement.”

Coming to an agreement is naturally much easier said than done with a free agent of this caliber. Bregman is arguably the second-best position player who’ll hit the market. Unless the Scott Boras client takes a significant hometown discount, retaining him would probably require the biggest investment in franchise history. Houston’s organizational high was the five-year, $151MM extension for Jose Altuve signed in Spring Training 2018.

That $151MM sum is coincidentally an exact match for the extension which Matt Chapman signed with the Giants last month. (Chapman’s deal was over six years, so the average annual value was lower than that of the Altuve contract.) Bregman is a year younger than Chapman and a more consistent offensive player. Bregman will decline a qualifying offer if he gets to free agency. That’ll attach him to draft compensation. That wouldn’t have been the case for Chapman, who could not have received a QO from San Francisco. Still, the one-year gap in age and the safer offensive profile make it likely that Bregman’s earning power is above the Chapman price.

The career-long Astro hasn’t spoken much about his contract status. Bregman deferred offseason questions while the Astros were still alive, stating that he was focused on the team’s performance. He limited his comments mostly to generalities in the immediate aftermath of being eliminated. Asked whether he wanted to return to Houston, Bregman said he “(hopes) so but (will) let Scott and the team handle that” (X link via Matt Young of the Houston Chronicle). He subsequently took to Twitter to thank the city.

A few of Bregman’s teammates were effusive in their praise for the two-time All-Star. Altuve, himself a Boras Corporation client, was particularly strong about the Astros’ need to keep him. “In my mind there is not a chance this is his last game (as an Astro),” Altuve said (relayed on X by Chandler Rome of the Athletic). “He gave a lot to this organization so it’s time for us as an organization to pay him back and make him stay here.” Altuve added that he planned to say as much personally to owner Jim Crane.

Ultimately, whether the Astros re-sign Bregman depends on Crane’s willingness to make a huge free agent investment. The Astros were content to let George Springer and Carlos Correa walk in previous offseasons. They’re down to their final seasons of arbitration control over Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez, both of whom are trending to nine-figure deals. Tucker is on pace to exceed $200MM and could push into the $300MM range with a great walk year.

While Crane has generally been averse to long-term deals, he hasn’t been shy about investing in the team overall. Houston is finishing this year with an approximate $244MM player payroll, as calculated by RosterResource. They’re around $262MM in luxury tax obligations, putting them into the second tier of penalization.

RosterResource calculates their guaranteed commitments for next season around $133MM. Tucker and Valdez headline one of the priciest arbitration classes in the league. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Houston’s arbitration group to cost around $58MM. Trades or non-tenders of José Urquidy and Chas McCormick could knock a few million from the ledger, but the Astros will go into the offseason with roughly $185MM in internal commitments.

Beyond the uncertainty at third base, Houston will need to look at the rotation and at first base. The latter was a huge issue all season. Houston’s rotation settled in later in the year, but they’ll see Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi hit free agency. Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and hopeful injury returnees Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. make for a talented group. Injuries seriously tested the depth before they stabilized things with the Kikuchi pickup at the deadline, though, so Houston is likely to bring in some kind of starting pitching help.

The Astros don’t have an obvious in-house replacement at third base. Shay Whitcomb and Zach Dezenzo took a few at-bats this season, but they’re unproven at the MLB level. 2023 first-round pick Brice Matthews could be an answer down the line. He only has 12 games of Triple-A experience thus far. Assuming the Diamondbacks pick up their option on Eugenio Suárez, there aren’t any clear regulars available at the position in free agency aside from Bregman.

Previewing The 2024-25 Free Agent Class: Right-Handed Relief

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MLBTR’s positional preview of the upcoming free agent class concludes with a look at the right-handed relief class. There are a couple established closers and some breakout arms who should get plenty of buzz as leverage pieces, yet it’s a rather thin group overall.

Player ages, listed in parenthesis, are for the 2025 season. Only players who have appeared in the majors this year or spent the entire season on the MLB injured list are included.

Other Entries: Catcher | First Base | Second Base | Shortstop | Third Base | Center Field | Corner Outfield | Designated Hitter | Starting Pitcher | Left-Handed Relief

High-Leverage Arms

MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored Hoffman’s emergence in a piece for Front Office subscribers last week. The former top 10 pick bounced around the league before finding a home in Philadelphia. He has a sterling 2.28 ERA across 118 2/3 innings for the Phils over the past two seasons. Hoffman has pitched his way up the leverage hierarchy and proven up to the challenge of tougher assignments. He posted a 2.17 mark while striking out more than a third of batters faced over 66 1/3 frames this season. Hoffman should at least land a three-year deal and has a shot at four — especially if he continues to elevate his profile with a strong postseason showing at the back of Rob Thomson’s bullpen.

Hudson returned from successive knee injuries in 2022-23 to post a strong season out of the Dodger bullpen. The veteran tossed 63 innings with an even 3.00 earned run average. He struck out nearly a quarter of opponents against a solid 7.5% walk rate. Hudson’s average fastball velocity returned to its typical 95-96 MPH and he induced swinging strikes at a huge 14.7% clip. His age probably limits him to one year, but Hudson should handily beat this season’s $2MM base salary.

The Yankees’ affinity for ground-ball relievers led them back to Kahnle. He has turned in consecutive sub-3.00 ERA showings over the course of his two-year free agent deal. Kahnle had an excellent 2.11 mark across 42 2/3 frames this season. He induced grounders at a huge 58.6% clip while striking out nearly 26% of opponents behind a stellar 16.4% swinging strike rate. Kahnle’s command can be a bit wobbly, but few pitchers match his combination of swing-and-miss and grounders. He’s adept at avoiding hard contact and neutralizes left-handed hitters with the changeup that he throws almost three quarters of the time. Even at 34, he should be in line for another multi-year deal.

The Cardinals took a flier on Kittredge, who had missed most of 2022-23 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. They were rewarded with 70 2/3 innings of 2.80 ERA ball in mostly high-leverage spots. Kittredge leans primarily on a slider that gets a ton of chases outside the strike zone. His 23.3% strikeout rate and 7% walk percentage are solid, while he has gotten swinging strikes at a strong 13.7% clip. Kittredge had a 1.88 ERA in 71 2/3 innings with the Rays in his previous healthy season. He has a multi-year track record of excellent results in pressure situations.

Martin has indicated that 2025 will be his final season. He’ll look for a one-year deal, presumably on a team with playoff aspirations. Martin should have no trouble finding a high-leverage role on a contender. He had an excellent two-year run with the Red Sox, turning in a 2.16 ERA across 95 2/3 innings. This season’s 3.45 mark wasn’t as dominant as Martin’s 1.05 ERA from 2023, but he fanned 27.8% of batters faced while limiting his walks to a microscopic 1.7% clip. Martin may have the best command of any reliever in the game. He hasn’t allowed an ERA above 4.00 in six seasons.

Robertson had another impressive season, this time at the back of the Texas bullpen. The extremely durable veteran fired 72 innings with an even 3.00 ERA. He struck out more than a third of his opponents while getting ground-balls at a solid 48.8% rate. Robertson has topped 60 innings in each of the past three seasons and hasn’t allowed an ERA higher than 3.03 in any of them. He hasn’t lost any zip on the cutter that serves as his primary pitch. Robertson is probably limited to one year because of his age, but he should command a strong salary and step right back into the late innings with a contender. Robertson will decline his end of a $7MM mutual option in favor of a $1.5MM buyout.

Treinen lost almost all of 2022-23 battling shoulder injuries that eventually required surgery. The Dodgers brought him back on a $1MM option and have been rewarded with 46 2/3 frames of 1.96 ERA ball. Treinen suffered a bruised lung on a hit-by-pitch in Spring Training and had a brief IL stay in August because of hip inflammation. He hasn’t had any arm issues and has had no trouble stepping back into important innings. Treinen punched out more than 30% of opponents against a 6% walk rate. While he didn’t get nearly as many grounders as he did during his best seasons with the A’s, the strikeout/walk profile was excellent. Before the shoulder surgery, Treinen’s sinker sat around 97 MPH. It was down to the 94-95 range this season. That’s a bit of a concern at his age, but the dominant results ensure he’ll land a sizable raise relative to this year’s rebound salary.

Possible Closers

When Estévez first hit the market two seasons ago, he was a hard-throwing upside play who hadn’t put things together in Colorado. That has been one of the Angels’ better free agent moves in recent years. Estévez immediately stepped in as the Halos’ closer and turned in a 3.36 ERA with 51 saves over a season and a half. Los Angeles flipped him to the Phillies for a pair of highly-regarded pitching prospects at the deadline. Estévez has saved another six games with Philadelphia, turning in a 2.57 ERA across 21 frames. His cumulative 23.6% strikeout percentage and 12.5% swinging strike rate are more solid than elite. Yet he’s showing the best command of his career (5.7% walk rate) while averaging nearly 97 MPH on his heater. He’s 26-31 in save chances. Estévez should get another multi-year deal and has a shot at breaking $30MM if he lands three years.

Holmes entered the season with the highest earning power in the relief class. That’s probably no longer the case. Holmes’ aggregate rate stats — a 3.14 ERA with a solid 25.1% strikeout rate and a massive 65% grounder percentage — don’t point to this being a bad year. Holmes blew 13 of 43 save opportunities, though, five more than any other pitcher. He had a 3.75 ERA in the second half after carrying a 2.77 mark into the All-Star Break. The Yankees have bumped him from the closing role going into the playoffs. Holmes still has a case for three years, but he hits the market with more red flags than the ERA and elite ground-ball rate would suggest.

Jansen is going to look for a closing opportunity to add to his career tally of 447 saves. He needs 32 more to pass Lee Smith for third on the all-time leaderboard. Pitching two more seasons would give him a chance to get to 500. There’ll be teams willing to give him that opportunity. Jansen turned in a 3.29 ERA while locking down 27 of 31 attempts with the Red Sox this season. He finished his Boston tenure with a 3.44 mark in 99 1/3 innings over two seasons. While Jansen isn’t the utterly dominant force he was with the Dodgers, he’s still a good closer.

Kimbrel is just behind Jansen on the career saves leaderboard. Whether he’ll get another ninth inning chance is in more doubt. The Orioles released the nine-time All-Star last month. Kimbrel had started the season reasonably well and carried a 2.80 ERA with 23 saves into the All-Star Break. The second half was an absolute disaster. He allowed 22 runs (20 earned) with 15 walks and 20 strikeouts over his final 17 innings. Kimbrel certainly won’t approach last year’s $13MM free agent guarantee. He’ll probably get a big league contract but might need to pitch his way back into the ninth inning.

Sewald’s season wasn’t as poor as Kimbrel’s, but he also lost his hold on the ninth inning. Sewald had only allowed one earned run through the first two months, but a disastrous July (12 runs in 10 innings) pushed him out of the closer’s role in Arizona. While his performance rebounded somewhat down the stretch, he finished the season on the injured list with neck discomfort. Sewald ended with a 4.31 ERA in 39 2/3 innings. He struck out 26.1% of opponents — down six points relative to 2023 — against a 6.1% walk rate. This was his toughest year since his 2021 resurgence with the Mariners.

The Rangers brought in Yates on a $4.5MM free agent deal last winter. It was one of the best bargain pickups of the offseason. Yates turned in a season similar to his dominant 2019 campaign when he was a member of the Padres. He worked to a 1.17 ERA while punching out almost 36% of opposing hitters. Yates took the closing job in Arlington and locked down 33 of 34 opportunities. Yates doesn’t have pristine control, but he misses bats in bunches and rarely gives up damaging contact. He has certainly earned himself a nice boost on this year’s earnings and has a chance at a two-year deal even at 38.

Middle Relief

Armstrong split his season between the Rays, Cardinals and Cubs. He had a poor ERA with Tampa Bay but more appealing strikeout and walk numbers that could land him a big league deal. He finished the year with a 4.86 ERA and a 22.4% strikeout rate over 66 2/3 innings.

A one-time closer in Kansas City, Barlow has moved into the middle innings with the Padres and Guardians over the past season and a half. Cleveland released him last month after he pitched to a 4.25 ERA in 55 innings. Barlow still fanned more than 28% of opponents, though his strikeout rate and velocity trended down as the season progressed.

A journeyman middle reliever, Barnes posted a 4.36 ERA over 66 innings for the Nationals this year. He struck out just under 20% of opponents.

Farmer had a nice season with the Reds, his third year in Cincinnati. He tossed 71 innings with a 3.04 earned run average and nearly average strikeout (23.4%) and walk (9.7%) rates.

García is a hard-throwing sinkerballer. This year’s 50.3% ground-ball rate is below his typical level. García carried a 3.71 ERA in 43 2/3 innings with the Angels through the deadline. A trade to the Red Sox flopped, as he was tagged for 15 runs over 15 1/3 innings in a Boston uniform.

García was missing a ton of bats for the Blue Jays early in the season. He looked on his way to at least a strong two-year deal at the time. Elbow injuries unfortunately soured his season, as he barely pitched from the middle of June onward. García only made 10 appearances for the Mariners, who acquired him in a deadline deal. His season ended in September when recurring elbow soreness shut him down.

Graveman missed the entire season after undergoing offseason shoulder surgery. He posted a 3.12 ERA in 66 1/3 innings between the White Sox and Astros in 2023.

Kelly battled injuries and struggled to a 4.78 ERA over 32 innings this year. He still pushes close to triple digits with his fastball but had a relatively pedestrian 24.5% strikeout rate this season. Kelly had fanned more than 30% of opponents in each of the previous two seasons.

A closer early in his career with the Rangers, Leclerc has landed as a volatile middle reliever in recent years. He misses a ton of bats (30.9% strikeout rate, 14.1% swinging strike percentage) while struggling to throw strikes consistently. Leclerc made 64 appearances with a 4.32 earned run average this year.

Loáisiga gets a ton of ground-balls when he’s at his best. Durability has been an issue, though. He only made three appearances before undergoing season-ending UCL surgery in April.

López pitched well for the Cubs down the stretch after his controversial exit from the Mets. He finished the year with a 2.89 ERA over 53 combined innings. López had roughly league average strikeout and walk rates while getting ground-balls at a strong 51% clip.

Middleton lost the entire season — and potentially his St. Louis tenure — to flexor tendon surgery. In 2023, he struck out more than 30% of opponents with a 3.38 ERA in 50 2/3 innings.

The Tigers released Miller last week. He had pitched to a 4.53 ERA over 55 2/3 innings. Miller threw a lot of strikes but had a pedestrian 21.8% strikeout percentage.

Neris walked a tightrope with his command throughout his time with the Cubs. Chicago released him late in the summer before he would vest a $9MM player option for next season. Neris returned to his old stomping grounds in Houston, where he dialed in his command but struggled with home runs in a small sample. He wrapped the season with 59 1/3 innings of 4.10 ERA ball with a strikeout rate just below 25% and a 10.8% walk percentage.

Ottavino continues plugging away as he nears his 40th birthday. He struck out 28.6% of opponents with a 4.34 ERA over 56 innings this year. It’s a slight step back from his 2023 production but Ottavino still misses a lot of bats and shouldn’t have an issue finding another big league deal.

Sims had a 3.57 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate across 35 1/3 innings for the Reds going into the trade deadline. As was the case with García, his production tanked after being moved to the Red Sox. Sims allowed 10 runs with more walks than strikeouts across 14 innings for the Sox.

Smith has been a solid middle innings arm for the Mets over his career. He had a 3.06 ERA in 19 appearances early this year before suffering an elbow injury that required a UCL reconstruction.

Stanek sits in the upper 90s and misses a lot of bats. His command comes and goes and he has allowed more than four earned runs per nine in consecutive seasons. Stanek pitched to a 4.88 ERA through 55 1/3 frames between the Mariners and Mets this season.

Strickland inked a minor league deal with the Angels and cracked the MLB roster in early April. He was a quietly valuable bullpen piece for Ron Washington, working 73 1/3 innings of 3.31 ERA ball in his first major league action in two years. Strickland’s 19.4% strikeout rate is going to limit interest, but he has a shot at a big league deal this time.

Swing Options

Anderson has been a starter for most of his career. He worked almost entirely in relief this year between the Red Sox and Rangers. Anderson pitched to a 5.40 ERA with a 16.5% strikeout rate through 58 1/3 frames as a mop-up option. He’ll be limited to minor league deals.

Signed by the Brewers to a $7MM deal as a starter, Junis suffered an early-season shoulder injury and pitched mostly in relief upon returning. He split his time between Milwaukee and the Reds, as Cincinnati added him in the Frankie Montas deal. Junis turned in a 2.69 ERA across 67 innings covering 24 appearances. He demonstrated excellent control but didn’t maintain the strikeout stuff he’d shown over his breakout 2023 season in San Francisco. Junis will collect a $3MM buyout on an $8MM mutual option — he’s likely to decline his end of the deal — and could get interest in starting and relief roles this winter.

Ross made it back to the majors after Tommy John surgery robbed him of the 2022-23 seasons. He missed a couple months with a back injury but had decent results for the Brewers when healthy. He turned in a 3.77 ERA with slightly below-average strikeout and walk marks across 74 innings.

Soroka was bombed over nine starts to begin the season. The White Sox moved him to the bullpen in the middle of May. He was quietly dominant after being kicked into relief, where he struck out 39% of batters faced with a 2.75 ERA over 36 innings. Soroka walked an alarming 13% of opponents out of the ’pen, so it wasn’t without some concern, but he could’ve been a key deadline target for teams looking to add swing-and-miss to the late innings. Unfortunately, he suffered a shoulder strain around the All-Star Break and didn’t return until the final week of the season. Soroka is just 27, so perhaps there are teams that believe they can recapture some of the upside that made him an All-Star starting pitcher before his Achilles injuries with the Braves. The whiffs will surely have a lot of clubs intrigued if he’s willing to sign as a pure reliever.

Stripling struggled for the second straight year. He lost his spot in the A’s rotation midway through the season. Stripling finished the year with an ERA slightly north of 6.00 through 85 1/3 innings. He’s likely looking at minor league offers.

A starter for most of his career, Turnbull was pushed to the bullpen early in the year with the Phillies. He’d outperformed Taijuan Walker and looked poised to seize the fifth starter job before suffering a lat strain that ended his regular season in late June. He was excellent before the injury, working to a 2.65 ERA while striking out 26% of opponents through 54 1/3 innings. He could make it back for Philadelphia’s playoff push.

Ureña pitched well enough to hold a roster spot with the Rangers all year. The former Marlin put up a 3.80 ERA in 109 innings spanning 33 appearances. His strikeout and walk numbers aren’t good, but he kept the ball on the ground half the time an opponent made contact. Ureña could get a low-base MLB deal.

Depth Types

Club Options

The O’s hold an $8MM option on Domínguez that comes with a $500K buyout. It’s a $7.5MM call that feels it could go either way. Domínguez didn’t have a great overall regular season, allowing a 4.45 ERA through 58 2/3 frames. He had a sub-4.00 mark after the Orioles acquired him from Philadelphia at the deadline. Domínguez picked up 10 saves while fanning nearly 29% of batters faced for the O’s. He has high-leverage stuff with inconsistent results over the past two seasons.

The Braves reacquired Jackson from the Giants at the deadline. He carried a 5.40 ERA over 35 frames at the time. Atlanta was hoping for a rebound, and while that happened to some extent, it probably wasn’t what they had in mind. Jackson posted a 4.50 ERA over 18 innings in his return. He finished the regular season with a 5.09 mark through 53 frames. Jackson misses enough bats that he could command a big league deal, but the $5MM difference between his $7MM salary and the $2MM buyout is probably too hefty for the team’s liking.

Maton scuffled early in the year after signing a late free agent deal with the Rays. The Mets landed him in early July. He has turned things around in Queens, working to a 2.51 ERA with a near-27% strikeout rate in 28 2/3 innings down the stretch. The Mets can keep Maton for $7.75MM or buy him out for $250K. Considering how well he pitched down the stretch, they’ll likely bring him back.

The Yankees hold a $5MM option on Trivino. They’ll decline it. Trivino was rehabbing 2023 Tommy John surgery and battled elbow and shoulder issues this year. It was a lost season that could lead him to take a minor league contract this time around.

Weaver struggled between 2020-23, yet the Yankees signed him to a big league deal in January. The move was met with plenty of skepticism but has worked out brilliantly. Weaver has provided the Yanks 84 innings of 2.89 ERA ball while fanning more than 31% of batters faced. He goes into October having taken the closer role from Holmes. A $2.5MM club option for next season only sweetens the deal. This is easily getting picked up.

Player Options

Martinez has a $12MM option for next season. He has indicated he’s uncertain on his opt-out decision, but it’d be very surprising if he didn’t retest the market. He continued to thrive in a swing role for the Reds, working to a 3.10 ERA over 142 1/3 innings. Martinez started 16 of 42 outings. He should land another multi-year deal with a realistic shot at three years and more than $30MM. Neither the Padres nor the Reds gave Martinez an Opening Day rotation spot, but he could find that opportunity somewhere this offseason.

Pagán has a similarly easy call as his Cincinnati teammate, albeit in the opposite direction. He’ll almost certainly exercise his $8MM option to stay with the Reds. Pagán posted a 4.50 ERA over 38 innings around a midseason lat injury. He had strong strikeout and walk numbers but issued a few too many home runs (1.42 HR/9) — essentially the story of his entire career.

Stratton has a $4.5MM player option on the second season of his two-year deal with Kansas City. He’ll be taking it after struggling to a 5.55 ERA with a 17.1% strikeout percentage during his first season.

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