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Poll: Who Will Round Out The AL Playoff Field?

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While most of the league’s postseason races are more or less wrapped up at this point, one highly competitive race remains: that for the final AL Wild Card spot. The Yankees and Red Sox have commanding leads for the first two spots that have pushed their playoff odds (per FanGraphs) to 99.7% and 97.4% respectively, but the rest of the field remains fairly open. Three clubs are within two games of the final spot. Who will make it to October among that group? A look at each of those teams:

Seattle Mariners (73-67)

The Mariners are currently in control of the final AL Wild Card spot. Cal Raleigh is in the midst of an MVP-caliber season behind the plate, and he’s been supported by Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena in the middle of the lineup. Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez were added at the trade deadline to help further bolster the offense. Suarez slumped for his first two-plus weeks back in Seattle but is back to form, hitting .265/.345/.592 over his past 14 games.

The rotation that was widely expected to be the club’s strength, however, has looked fairly pedestrian. Only Bryan Woo has stood out from the crowd as George Kirby, Luis Castillo, and Logan Gilbert have all been closer to average starters than ace-caliber arms. Bryce Miller was injured for much of the year and has struggled when healthy. Still, the bullpen remains elite, and the club is in solid position in the standings even after this week’s sweep at the hands of the Rays. They have an outside shot at winning the AL West, sitting 3.5 games out with a three-game set against the Astros later this month. They’ll need to fend off the Royals in Kansas City for three games as well.

Texas Rangers (72-69)

Sitting just 1.5 games back of the Mariners, Texas is in position to pounce if Seattle falters. A schedule that gives them six games against Houston as they sit five games back in the AL West leaves a small chance at capturing the division or perhaps pushing the Astros far enough down the standings that the Mariners claim the West while the Rangers take the Wild Card for themselves.

Even with the advantage of controlling their own destiny, actually making good on that will be difficult for Texas. Key players like Nathan Eovaldi, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Tyler Mahle and Evan Carter are all on the injured list. Wyatt Langford will be leaned on heavily to help carry the offense. A resurgent Jacob deGrom and deadline acquisition Merrill Kelly are still on hand to lead the rotation, and former No. 2 pick Jack Leiter has been excellent over his past 12 starts (2.89 ERA, 28.2 K%). Will the remaining pieces of the team be enough to push them into the playoffs?

Kansas City Royals (71-69)

Like the Rangers, the Royals have managed to hang around the Wild Card race despite significant injuries. Kris Bubic and Cole Ragans have missed much of the year, and Seth Lugo has now joined them on the shelf. That leaves Michael Wacha and rookie Noah Cameron as the team’s most likely starters for the Wild Card series if they can make it into the postseason.

The good news is that the addition of Mike Yastrzemski has been a game-changer for the lineup. He’s belted seven homers in 107 plate appearances and batted .242/.327/.560 overall in Kansas City, joining Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia, and Bobby Witt Jr. to form an impressive top four. Carlos Estevez and Lucas Erceg are a quality duo at the back-end of the bullpen, and three home games against the Mariners give them plenty of control over their fate.

Tampa Bay Rays (71-69)

Baseball’s hottest team has won seven games in a row, including a sweep of the Mariners in Seattle and a Thursday victory over the Guardians that pushed Cleveland 3.5 games out in the Wild Card chase. Junior Caminero is the envy of the league at third base, Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe are as impressive as ever in the middle of the lineup, and Drew Rasmussen (2.66 ERA over his past 10 starts) looks capable of going head-to-head with just about any pitcher as a Game One starter. Thirteen games against the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Cubs over the course of the rest of the season leave the Rays with plenty of adversity, but perhaps their young talent can stay hot and push them to October.

Which of these teams will come out on top and join the Blue Jays, Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros in the postseason? Will the Mariners be able to hold on? Will the Royals or Rangers overcome their injury woes to force their way in? Or can the Rays stay hot through the end of the year? Have your say in the poll below:

The Opener: Sproat, Brewers, Jays, Yankees

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:

1. Sproat to debut:

The Mets are expected to bring right-hander Brandon Sproat to the big leagues this Sunday. He’s ticketed to start Sunday afternoon’s game against the Reds in Cincinnati. A second-rounder in the 2023 draft, Sproat made it all the way to Triple-A during his first pro season last year and this year has spent the entire season at the level. In 26 appearances (25 starts) with Syracuse this year, he’s posted a 4.24 ERA with a 22.1% strikeout rate across 121 innings of work. Sproat joins Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong as pitching prospects who have come up to help impact the club down the stretch. The Mets already have six pitchers in their rotation, but it appears that the club may be considering asking veteran righty Kodai Senga to accept being optioned to Triple-A. That would open up a spot in the rotation for Sproat, but it’s also possible that Senga refuses to be optioned. Regardless of what happens regarding Senga, a 40-man roster move will be needed to accommodate Sproat’s promotion.

2. Brewers IL move coming?

The Brewers are set to place one of their relief pitchers on the injured list, according to a report from MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. Manager Pat Murphy declined to say who that was they’d be placing on the shelf, but he did describe him as a “significant” reliever. McCalvy went on to note that both Abner Uribe and Jared Koenig warmed up during yesterday’s loss to the Phillies, which would suggest that neither of them is currently injured. That would seem to indicate that the injured player is Nick Mears, who has a 3.42 ERA in 59 appearances with Milwaukee this year. The specifics of the situation will become more clear later today when the club makes a roster move prior to today’s game against the Pirates. Robert Gasser and Chad Patrick are among the more interesting names who could join the club’s pitching staff to fill the vacated roster spot.

3. Series Preview: Blue Jays @ Yankees

A series with major consequences for the AL East is set to start later today as the Blue Jays head to the Bronx for a three-game set against the Yankees. Toronto currently has a three-game lead over New York, meaning that a sweep by the Yanks would bring them into a tie for control of the AL East. Veteran right-hander Kevin Gausman (3.75 ERA) will take on rookie Cam Schlittler (2.61 ERA in nine starts) in game one later today, followed by a match-up between Luis Gil (3.68 ERA in six starts) and Max Scherzer (4.11 ERA in 13 starts) on Saturday. The series will wrap up Sunday with Chris Bassitt (4.10 ERA) on the mound opposite southpaw Max Fried (2.98 ERA). It’s a series that could also have big implications for the Red Sox, who will be in Arizona facing the Diamondbacks this weekend and could gain ground in the standings if they manage to pull off a sweep while their two divisional opponents split the series.

The Guardians’ Surprising Pitching Need

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When it comes to pitching development, Cleveland has been a model organization for years. The Guardians have churned out quality starter after quality starter. Among the names they've either drafted or acquired as a prospect and developed into a true big leaguer are Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Shane Bieber, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac, Cal Quantrill, Danny Salazar and Triston McKenzie. Journeyman Ben Lively turned his career around in Cleveland recently. Matthew Boyd parlayed eight strong starts with the '24 Guardians into a two-year deal with the Cubs and looks completely revitalized.

Not all of those arms have sustained their success, of course. Injuries and general pitcher attrition hit the Guardians, just like any other club. Salazar, McKenzie and plenty of others in the past decade have run into health troubles that derailed their careers. Bieber's 2024 lasted only two starts before Tommy John surgery, and he was traded to the Blue Jays in July before making it back to a big league mound in Cleveland (albeit in a deal netting a pretty strong pitching prospect, Khal Stephen). Daniel Espino went from the sport's top pitching prospect to the poster boy for the "What if..." crowd after a series of significant injuries -- including two shoulder surgeries -- blew up his promising career. He's still with the organization but hasn't pitched in a game since 2022 (when he tossed only 18 1/3 innings).

The Guardians have had similar success in the bullpen, churning out names like Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, Trevor Stephan, Hunter Gaddis, Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw, Sam Hentges, James Karinchak and more. As with the starters -- even more so, in fact -- injuries and attrition have whittled away at the group, but Cleveland has generally been able to bank on piecing together a strong relief corps while rarely investing significant money to do so.

Over the past decade, Cleveland starters rank second in the majors in innings pitched and are tied for fifth in ERA. The rotation has been so good that Cleveland relievers have pitched the fewest innings of any team in the game. Their relievers, unsurprisingly, lead MLB in earned run average in that span.

We've come to take for granted that the Guardians will just produce a good pitching staff even when they lack clear name value. Almost as if by magic, they seemingly pluck strong pitching performances from thin air. That hasn't quite been the case in 2025, however, and there's reason to wonder whether they can get back on track in 2026.

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Is Jordan Walker Still A Core Player In St. Louis?

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The Cardinals have maintained this season is primarily about evaluating young players. It felt like a potential make-or-break year for Jordan Walker, in particular. Walker was viewed as an impact bat when he was a prospect. He impressed with a .276/.342/.445 showing with 16 homers as a 21-year-old rookie.

That promising debut feels like an increasingly distant memory. Walker regressed to a .201/.253/.366 line in 51 major league games last year. He spent a good portion of the season in Triple-A, where he was an average hitter. The Cards maintained that Walker would play every day in the majors this year. That’d give them more clarity on whether he projects as a core piece as John Mozeliak turns over baseball operations to Chaim Bloom going into 2026.

The audition has not gone well. Walker has battled a couple health issues. He missed a few weeks in early June with wrist inflammation, then lost around three weeks in the middle of the summer to appendicitis. He has been unproductive when healthy. Walker has managed just five home runs across 331 plate appearances. He’s batting .218/.272/.309 while striking out at a career-high 31.7% clip.

There are 249 hitters who have taken at least 300 trips to the plate. Walker is among the bottom ten in both on-base percentage and slugging. Most of the players with similarly poor numbers at least have defensive value to fall back upon. Walker is already in a corner outfield spot and grades as a well below-average right fielder. He hasn’t shown any sustained signs of figuring things out offensively. Walker carries a .229/.279/.328 line with poor strikeout and walk numbers in 37 games since his second injured list stint.

The Cardinals have continued playing him regularly, as they said they would coming into the season. That probably won’t carry into 2026 if Walker doesn’t make significant improvements. Hitting coach Brant Brown and manager Oli Marmol each had a blunt assessment of the 23-year-old on Tuesday.

“At some point in time, he’s going to have to devote more focus on preparation,” Brown told Bernie Miklasz of KMOX when asked what it’ll take for Walker to be more consistent (around 10:30 mark). “We’ve had long conversations with this. It’s not only looking at film on the (opposing) starter but also being able to come in on the first day of a series and taking a look at all the bullpen guys. All the information and video is available. Just so we’re not getting snuck up on when a guy comes in.” Brown then spoke more generally about the offense and suggested some hitters have had a tendency to press, especially when they’re going through slumps, and become overly focused on targeting specific pitches.

After Brown’s comments, Marmol spoke with Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “I need to see Jordan have a sense of urgency for the things that need to take place in order to give him consistent results,” the skipper said in response to a question about the team’s short-term hope. “That goes with his move toward the ball, his preparation in the cage but also his approach in a game. … You have to start to see progress. It think it’s important as you are evaluating the next month, you need to start to see progress and consistency.”

Walker addressed Marmol’s comments yesterday. He said he “(doesn’t) quite understand the urgency part” of the manager’s statement (link via Jeff Jones of The Belleville News-Democrat). Walker pointed to his best stretch of the season, when he hit .304 with a .373 on-base percentage in the first two weeks out of the All-Star Break. He said he felt comfortable with his approach during that run and was working with Brown to get back to that feel.

The coaches maintained they believe Walker can have a bright future. “There’s a combination of talent but also I do feel there’s going to be buy-in. There’s a level of aptitude there that’ll allow for it,” Marmol told KMOX. “He’s young. … Walker did have a little bit of success when he first came up here. Once they know how to pitch you, they just double down on that until you prove that you can combat it. He hasn’t shown the ability to do that yet.

There’s enough talent there that I’m nowhere close to giving up on Jordan Walker,” Marmol continued. “There are adjustments to be made. There’s a commitment to the pregame work that can get to a better level, and Brownie spoke to that earlier. … I feel like he has an opportunity to make these adjustments and be the type of player that we were hoping for when he first got up here.”

That may well be the case, but the Cardinals will be hard-pressed to commit to Walker as an everyday player if they more seriously hope to compete for a playoff spot in 2026. Bloom was not part of the front office when Walker was drafted or developed into a top prospect. It’s not clear how bullish he is on the player.

Walker still has a minor league option remaining, so the Cards could send him back to Triple-A Memphis next season. That’d buy them another development season but runs the risk of completely tanking his trade value if he doesn’t improve. There’d surely be teams willing to take a flier on Walker this offseason if the Cardinals wanted to move on in a sell-low trade. They’ll face a similar question on third baseman/second baseman Nolan Gorman, who has been better than Walker but a league average hitter overall.

St. Louis also has an increasingly crowded corner outfield. Lars Nootbaar remains a solid everyday left fielder. Alec Burleson, who is currently sidelined by a wrist issue, has a career-best .286/.337/.451 slash. Brown raved about Burleson’s improved approach. Iván Herrera has been one of the team’s top hitters. The Cardinals haven’t played him at catcher in two months, pushing him mostly to designated hitter with occasional left field work. That probably points to Walker beginning next season in Triple-A (if everyone’s healthy out of camp) unless the Cardinals trade someone over the offseason.

Image courtesy of Jeff Curry, Imagn Images.

Astros Notes: Paredes, Hader, Arrighetti

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Astros infielder Isaac Paredes resumed baseball activities this week, taking batting practice and doing light infield work before Wednesday’s game against the Yankees (link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Paredes has been out since shortly after the All-Star Break with a hamstring strain that threatens his season.

It still appears to be a long shot that the two-time All-Star will make it back. The injury was severe enough that surgery was a legitimate consideration. Paredes opted for non-surgical rehab in hope of contributing to a playoff race. He’s progressing well so far, but neither Paredes nor manager Joe Espada is ready to handicap his odds of coming back this year.

Paredes was one of the team’s top hitters before the injury. He connected on 19 home runs with a .259/.359/.470 slash through 409 plate appearances. The Astros would love to get his bat back in October. That’s true even though he no longer has a simple path to everyday playing time. Houston added Carlos Correa to play third base in their surprise deadline deal with Minnesota. Christian Walker has picked things up at first base. Yordan Alvarez is back at designated hitter.

Paredes conceded he might be limited to DH even if he can make it back to hit. They’d need to decide whether to use him off the bench or live with Alvarez’s defense in left field. That’s a far off consideration.  They’ll continue to monitor Paredes’ progress before sorting out how they’d arrange their lineup if he makes it back.

They wouldn’t have nearly as many questions about how to use Josh Hader. Houston’s closer is trying to make an October return from a capsule strain in his throwing shoulder. Espada said this afternoon that follow-up imaging this week showed healing but that Hader remains shut down from throwing (relayed by Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle). Bryan Abreu has stepped into the closer’s role. That initially went well, but the righty has given up three runs in each of his last two appearances. Subtracting Abreu from the setup corps — plus an intervening elbow injury for Bennett Sousa — has strained the bullpen depth as the playoffs approach.

The pitching staff took yet another hit on Wednesday when starter Spencer Arrighetti landed on the injured list with elbow inflammation. That rules him out until at least September 15. With the regular season ending less than two weeks later, Espada admitted it’s unlikely Arrighetti will be back during the regular season (link via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart). The manager didn’t close the door on a playoff comeback. The second-year righty might’ve been a fringe candidate for the postseason roster even at full health, though. Throwing him into the playoffs after an absence of at least a month would be risky.

Houston was planning to deploy a six-man rotation. Arrighetti’s injury could change that. Their starters for all three games of this weekend’s series in Texas are still to be announced.

Orioles Outright Corbin Martin

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The Orioles announced that Corbin Martin accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Norfolk. The right-hander cleared waivers after being designated for assignment on Tuesday. There has not yet been a resolution on Elvin Rodríguez, who was also DFA two days ago.

Martin spent a couple months in Tony Mansolino’s bullpen. He gave up 12 earned runs over 18 innings. Martin recorded a solid 25.8% strikeout rate but was plagued by walks and the home run ball. He gave up three runs apiece in his final two appearances against the Giants, though his defense let him down with a pair of errors in his last outing on August 31. While there was some poor luck in that appearance, Martin was pushed out when the O’s needed 40-man roster spots for Tyler Wells and Jorge Mateo.

Baltimore also ran Martin through outright waivers around the All-Star Break. He elected free agency that time but re-signed one day later. The 29-year-old decided not to try his luck on the open market this time around. It would’ve been too late into the season to be playoff eligible elsewhere. He’d likely have been looking at a minor league contract with a non-contender. It made more sense to stick with the O’s for the final weeks of the regular season. He’ll elect minor league free agency going into the offseason if the Orioles don’t call him back up this month.

Twins To Activate Pablo Lopez

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The Twins will activate Pablo López to start tomorrow’s series opener against the Royals, reports Dan Hayes of The Athletic. He’ll be activated from the 60-day injured list. Minnesota already has two vacancies on the 40-man roster, so they’ll only need to option a pitcher to create an active roster spot.

López has been out of action for three months. He suffered a Grade 2 teres major strain in his throwing shoulder during his start on June 3. That injury was arguably the turning point of Minnesota’s season. The Twins were seven games above .500 and in possession of a Wild Card spot at the time. Minnesota’s rotation collapsed over the next few weeks. That wasn’t all about López’s injury, as the struggles extended beyond call-up David Festa, but their season never recovered.

The Twins went 9-18 in June. A month later, they traded almost everyone from their bullpen and pulled off the surprising Carlos Correa salary dump. A healthy López would’ve been a target for contenders as well. The Twins had no reason to trade him halfway through an injury, but it’s not out of the question that they hear teams out this offseason.

López was off to what might’ve been a career season. He posted a 2.82 ERA in 60 2/3 frames spanning 11 starts. He fanned a quarter of opponents against a 5.7% walk rate. López has been an above-average starter for a few years but has yet to post a sub-3.00 ERA over a full season. He might have been on that trajectory had he not gotten hurt.

Minnesota’s sell-off and fall down the standings raised some question about whether it’d be prudent to shut López down entirely. The veteran righty remained committed to making it back for a few turns through the rotation. That’ll allow him to go into the offseason with more confidence than he would have had coming off a season-ending shoulder injury. It’ll also give opposing clubs a few looks as they consider whether to make a big push to try to pull López in an offseason trade.

López is wrapping up the second season of a four-year, $73.5MM extension. He’ll make $21.5MM per season between 2026-27. That’s below market value for a #2 caliber starter. López would have trade value if the Twins shop him, but they could prefer to hold him as a veteran anchor of a young rotation while looking ahead to a potential deadline deal in 2026. Joe Ryan, who is down to his last two seasons of arbitration control, will also be one of the offseason’s top trade candidates.

Taylor Walls Undergoes Sports Hernia Surgery

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Rays infielder Taylor Walls underwent season-ending sports hernia surgery, manager Kevin Cash tells Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times. Walls has been on the injured list since August 12 with what was initially diagnosed as a left groin strain. He’s expected to be ready for Spring Training.

This has been a typical season for Walls, a light-hitting defensive specialist. He hit .220/.280/.319 with four home runs through 317 plate appearances. The Florida State product owns a .195/.286/.298 batting line in more than 1500 career trips. Walls’ value comes entirely from his glove. While Statcast’s Outs Above Average has him as a roughly neutral defender, Defensive Runs Saved grades him as a plus gloveman at each of second base, third base and shortstop.

Walls was the starting shortstop with Ha-Seong Kim on the injured list for a good chunk of the season. Tampa Bay traded José Caballero and waived Kim. They’ve promoted top prospect Carson Williams to take over at shortstop and would have used Walls as a utility player if he’d been healthy. Williams and Junior Caminero are the hopeful long-term pairing on the left side of the infield. The Rays have another club option on Brandon Lowe but could field trade offers over the winter.

The Rays have a $2.45MM club option or $50K buyout on Walls’ services for next year. They could decline the option and go through the arbitration process. He’s controllable for two more seasons in either case.

NPB’s Kazuma Okamoto, Tatsuya Imai Expected To Be Posted For MLB Teams

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7:34pm: Jon Heyman of The New York Post writes that Okamoto and Imai are indeed both expected to be posted this offseason.

12:24pm: Every offseason, a handful of high-profile players from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and the Korea Baseball Organization in South Korea either reach true free agency or are made available to MLB teams by way of the posting system. We already know that slugging third baseman Munetaka Murakami (NPB’s Yakult Swallows) and steady right-hander Kona Takahashi (NPB’s Seibu Lions) will be posted this winter. Breakout infielder Sung Mun Song (KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes) is hoping to be posted for big league clubs as well. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports this morning that Yomiuri Giants third baseman Kazuma Okamoto and Seibu Lions righty Tatsuya Imai are also hoping to be posted by their clubs and make the jump to Major League Baseball.

The hope of being posted is notable, but that also does not guarantee either player will be available to North American clubs this winter. Yakyu Cosmopolitan — a terrific source for English-speaking fans with an interest in Japanese baseball — points out that NPB’s Giants are a typically anti-posting club who rarely make their stars available to MLB teams. Okamoto is the Giants’ captain. The Lions are more amenable to posting players, but they’ve already agreed to post Takahashi. Posting two members of their rotation would be difficult, but YC notes that Imai would be a true free agent after the 2026 season. The Lions could lose him for nothing in the 2026-27 offseason anyhow.

Okamoto turned 29 in June. He’s a six-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner who’s thrice led NPB in home runs. He missed more than three months of the current season after injuring his elbow in a collision at first base, but he’s healthy again and is batting .304/.385/.585 with 11 homers, 13 doubles, a triple and nearly as many walks (10.2%) as strikeouts (11.2%) in 196 plate appearances. Okamoto averaged 34 homers per season from 2018-23, “slipped” to 27 last year, and is now homering at the third-best rate of his career (once every 17.8 plate appearances).

Okamoto has been on the radar of MLB scouts for several years now, but if the Giants are going to post him, this will be the time to do it. Like Imai, he’ll have the requisite nine years of service to become a true free agent after the 2026 season. That hasn’t stopped the Yomiuri club from holding onto stars in the past. However, if Okamoto is set on eventually making a move to North America, the Giants’ decision boils down to posting him now and reaping a notable sum via the posting system or allowing him to walk with no compensation next winter.

The right-handed-hitting Okamoto played primarily third base early in his NPB career, but he’s seen significant time at first and has a handful of starts in the outfield corners as well. Okamoto has split his time between the corners this year but was primarily a first baseman in 2024. Sports Info Solutions credited him with the Fielding Bible Award as NPB’s best defender at first base in 2024, and Passan suggests that some MLB teams feel he’s better suited at first than at third.

Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs agrees, labeling Okamoto as a “likely first-base-only defender” in the majors but crediting his plus power and consistent ability to pull the ball with authority. Longenhagen notes that, as is the case with most NPB hitters, there are questions about Okamoto’s ability to hit big league fastballs. The average NPB fastball is around 91 mph, compared to this year’s 94.4 mph average four-seamer in MLB (via Statcast). Longenhagen writes that Okamoto’s numbers against heaters greater than 94 mph “fall off a cliff.” It’s a valid concern, though the counter is always that a hitter could potentially adapt to better velocity when seeing it more frequently. That uncertainty will be baked into eventual price of a free agent contract if Okamoto is posted.

Even if Okamoto is limited to primarily playing first base, he’s a good defender there by all accounts. He has plus power, improving contact skills and draws plenty of walks. Since settling in as a regular in his age-22 season, Okamoto is a .276/.360/.524 hitter with an average of 39 homers per 162 games played. He currently has a career-low strikeout rate and the second-best ISO (slugging minus batting average) of his career. If he’s posted, there will surely be multi-year interest from MLB clubs.

Imai’s possible addition to the market is arguably even more intriguing, given the heavy price teams are willing to pay for prime-aged pitching. The 5’11” righty won’t turn 28 until next May. He’s in the midst of a career-best season, sporting a comical 1.50 ERA with a 28.8% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate in 143 2/3 innings. Dating back to the 2022 season, Imai boasts a sensational 2.10 earned run average. Passan notes that the right-hander sits 95 mph with his heater and tops out at 99 mph, giving him the sort of power arsenal that’s quite rare in NPB.

An ankle injury held him to nine games back in 2022, but Imai has topped 130 innings in three seasons since and is averaging seven innings per start for a second consecutive season. He’s on pace for back-to-back seasons of more than 170 innings. (Bear in mind that the NPB season is 144 games, not 162 as in MLB, and Japanese pitchers typically only start once per week.) Imai currently ranks seventh in NPB in innings pitched, and the six names ahead of him all have at least one extra start over him. He’s averaged more innings per start than all but one of those pitchers ahead of him on that leaderboard.

Passan writes that he polled more than a dozen scouts and front office executives on the type of contract Imai could command, with estimates ranging from $80MM on the low end to nearly $200MM on the high end. He’ll be three years older than Yoshinobu Yamamoto was when he landed his precedent-setting $325MM contract with the Dodgers but two years younger than Shota Imanaga was when he signed a four-year, $53MM deal that now looks like a bargain for the Cubs (and still will even after Chicago picks up an option to push the deal to $80MM over five years).

If Imai is posted, he’ll join Dustin May and Michael Soroka as free agent starters heading into their age-28 seasons. Imai would have considerably more earning power than either, as big league teams will pay a premium for his power arsenal and the allure of the unknown. Based on Imai’s age, arsenal and recent track record, there’s a chance that he could be the highest-paid pitcher of the entire free agent class this winter — if the Lions eventually choose to make him available.

For those in need of a refresher, the MLB-NPB posting system allows Japanese teams to post their players for all 30 MLB teams at their discretion. Players that are 25 or older and have six-plus years of experience can sign major league contracts for any length and any amount. When a player is posted, that opens a 45-day window for him to negotiate with any and all interested MLB clubs.

When a deal is reached, the MLB team must pay a posting/release fee to the player’s former NPB club. That sum is equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any money thereafter. That sum comes in addition to the contract. Any down-the-road earnings (e.g. club options, performance bonuses, etc.) are also factored in once they become guaranteed. For instance, if Imai were to sign a $125MM contract with an eventual club option for $25MM, his MLB team would owe the Lions an additional $3.75MM (15%) upon exercising that club option.

Dodgers Designate Alexis Díaz For Assignment

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The Dodgers announced that they have selected the contract of catcher Ben Rortvedt, a move that was previously reported. In corresponding moves, they optioned infielder Alex Freeland and designated right-hander Alexis Díaz for assignment.

Díaz, 28, was Cincinnati’s closer not too long ago but has fallen on hards times lately. In 2023, he racked up 37 saves for the Reds. He posted a 3.07 earned run average over his 67 1/3 innings. His 12.6% walk rate was too high but he struck out 30.1% of batters faced. He kept it going in 2024 but with some signs of worry. He added another 28 saves with a 3.99 ERA but his strikeout rate dropped all the way to 22.7%.

Despite the trend lines moving the wrong direction, the Reds still tendered him a contract. He had qualified for arbitration for the first time going into 2025, with exactly three years of service. He and the Reds avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $4.5MM salary.

Things have gone from bad to worse this year. He started the season on the injured list due to a hamstring strain. He was reinstated by mid-April but the Reds had Emilio Pagán closing games and didn’t commit to Díaz retaking the ninth inning job. Díaz then allowed eight earned runs in his first six innings with just three strikeouts but five walks, in addition to hitting two batters.

The Reds optioned him to the minors at the start of May. Things didn’t get much better down on the farm. In 13 2/3 innings for Louisville, he had a 22.9% strikeout rate but walked 12 opponents, a 17.1% clip. He hit another two batters and also uncorked two wild pitches. The Reds then traded him to the Dodgers in what was essentially a salary dump deal. The player they got back, right-hander Mike Villani, was a 22-year-old with just two professional innings under his belt at the time.

The Dodgers initially sent Díaz to their Arizona facilities to try to get him back on track. His small sample of major league work since then has been decent enough. In nine innings, he has allowed five earned runs via seven hits, two walks and hitting two batters while striking out nine. But he has also thrown ten Triple-A innings, allowing nine earned runs via seven hits, eight walks and hitting three batters while striking out ten.

It seems that the Dodgers have seen enough and are willing to risk losing Díaz to another club. It will be interesting to see if there’s any interest in a claim. The short-term benefits would be minimal. Now that it’s September, Díaz wouldn’t be postseason eligible with a claiming club. He’s a likely non-tender candidate, given this year’s struggles.

On the other hand, there is theoretical upside. Due to spending most of this year in the minors, Díaz can still be controlled for another three years after this one. It also means he won’t be able to command a notable arbitration raise for the 2026 season. If some club out there sees a path to getting him back on track, perhaps they would consider grabbing him now. Tendering him a contract for $4-5MM next year would be akin to signing someone like Ryne Stanek or Jonathan Loáisiga, who signed one-year deals in that range last offseason.

Though if the Dodgers can’t figure him out, that doesn’t leave a lot of hope for other clubs. And he is still owed about $580K this year, which is a decent amount for a struggling reliever who can’t even help in the postseason. If he passes through waivers unclaimed, he will almost certainly stick with the Dodgers as non-roster depth. Since he has three years of service, he will have the right to elect free agency. But since he has less than five, he would have to forfeit that remaining money in exercising that right.

Freeland came into the year as one of the club’s top prospects. He got called up in late July as several infielders were dealing with injuries. He slashed just .190/.292/.310 in his first 97 plate appearances and a few infielders have come off the IL in the interim. He’ll make way for the club to carry three catchers, at least for as long as Will Smith is injured. It’s not uncommon for prospects to struggle when first promoted, so Freeland could still be a big part of the club’s future, but he’ll head back to the minors for now.

Photo courtesy of Aaron Doster, Imagn Images

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