Phillies Rumors

We took a look Tuesday at 10 position players from the National League East who are hoping 2020 goes better than last year did. Let’s now explore an even larger selection of pitchers seeking rebound efforts this season…

Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Braves:

Foltynewicz was an indispensable part of the Braves’ rotation two years ago, but the beginning of last season went so poorly for him that the team optioned him to Triple-A in late June. Upon his return in August, Foltynewicz was a much better pitcher, his horrid performance in the Braves’ NLDS elimination game against the Cardinals notwithstanding. The two-time defending division champion Braves will need his August-September to carry over, as their rotation’s dealing with some uncertainty because of Cole Hamels’ shoulder problems.

Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Mets:

To be clear, last season was not a poor one for Syndergaard by any means. He amassed a personal-high 197 1/3 innings, continued to average upward of 97 mph on his fastball and posted 9.2 K/9 against 2.28 BB/9. Moreover, Syndergaard was a Statcast darling, ranking near the top of the majors in average exit velocity against, expected weighted on-base average and hard-hit percentage, among other categories. On the other hand, his normally stellar run prevention hit career-worst levels. Syndergaard wound up with a 4.28 ERA/3.60 FIP. That’s fine, but it’s not the front-of-the-rotation type of production we’ve grown accustomed to seeing him log.

Rick Porcello/Michael Wacha, RHPs, Mets:

We’ll lump these two together because they’re both offseason signings who could factor into the back of the Mets’ rotation. Porcello, a former Cy Young winner with the Red Sox, continued to chew up innings last year (174 1/3), but he couldn’t keep runs off the board. His ERA (5.52) was dead last among qualified starters, while his 4.76 FIP checked in as the game’s seventh-worst figure. But the Mets took a $10MM gamble on the durable 31-year-old. That came after they spent $3MM on Wacha, a former Cardinal who – contrary to Porcello – has not been the picture of durability. Wacha has typically stopped runs at a quality clip, but that wasn’t the case last season – a year in which he shuffled between the Cardinals’ rotation and bullpen and concluded with a 4.76 ERA/5.61 FIP over 126 2/3 frames. Career-worst walk and home run-to-fly ball rates of 3.91 and 22 percent, respectively, dragged him down.

Edwin Diaz/Jeurys Familia/Dellin Betances, RHPs, Mets:

Lots of Mets on this list, aren’t there? Diaz was supposed to be the team’s end-of-game savior last season after coming over in a blockbuster trade with the Mariners. He turned in one of the greatest seasons in the history of relievers the year prior, so you can’t blame the Mets for expecting his excellence to continue. Instead, opposing hitters tattooed the 25-year-old for a 5.59 ERA/4.51 FIP and 2.33 home runs per nine across 58 innings, leading to seven blown saves in 33 attempts (Diaz went 57-of-61 in those situations in 2018). But if the HR rate and the .377 batting average on balls in play return to earth in 2020, Diaz should be OK. He did, after all, strike out 15.36 hitters per nine (against 3.41 walks) and average almost 98 mph on his fastball last year.

Like Familia, Diaz came to the Mets as a ballyhooed offseason pickup a year ago. As someone who pitched well for the Mets in his prior stint with the team, Familia was already a known commodity to the club. However, New York didn’t get the version of Familia it expected in 2019. He continued to throw hard (in the 96 mph range), but a bloated walk rate of 6.3 per nine contributed to an awful 5.70 ERA/4.88 FIP in 60 frames. Like Diaz, an inflated BABIP (.346) was among the contributors to Familia’s struggles, though he earned that to some degree with a 7 percent increase in hard-hit rate.

Betances is the lone member of this trio who’s not coming off a poor season. The longtime Yankee, whom the Mets signed to a $10.5MM guarantee on Christmas Eve, is just trying to bounce back from an injury-wrecked year. Betances only made one appearance last year after battling shoulder troubles. And when he was leaving the mound following that September outing, the four-time All-Star suffered a partial tear of his left Achilles tendon.

Sean Doolittle/Roenis Elias, LHPs, Nationals:

Doolittle was incredibly dominant for the Nationals two years ago, and though he helped the team to a World Series last fall, his regular season wasn’t as productive. His ERA and FIP (4.05/4.25) each increased by more than two runs, while his strikeout, walk and groundball rates (9.9 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 25.3 percent) were also markedly worse than they were during the previous season. Elias experienced a similar drop-off, and injuries limited him to four appearances for the Nats after they acquired him from the Mariners at the July 31 trade deadline. But he and Doolittle will head into the new season as the top two southpaws in Washington’s bullpen.

Adam Conley, LHP; Drew Steckenrider, RHP, Marlins:

The hard-throwing Conley was a fairly solid piece out of the Marlins’ bullpen in 2018. That wasn’t the case last season – a 60 2/3-inning campaign in which he pitched to a 6.53 ERA/5.19 FIP with 7.86 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a 37.9 percent grounder rate. Conley also saw his swinging-strike rate fall by more than 4 percent, though he did give up fewer hard-hit balls, and a .351 BABIP didn’t help matters.

Steckenrider joined Conley two seasons ago in seemingly emerging as a respectable late-game arm for Miami. However, thanks in part to elbow troubles, he never really got off the ground last year. Steckenrider only tossed 14 1/3 innings, in which he yielded 10 earned runs on nine hits – including six home runs.

Jake Arrieta, RHP, Phillies:

Arrieta’s a former Cy Young winner with the Cubs who hasn’t performed as hoped since the Phillies signed him to a three-year, $75MM guarantee entering 2018. The 34-year-old dealt with a serious elbow injury last season, holding him to 135 2/3 innings (his fewest since 2013) and a 4.64 ERA/4.89 FIP.

Seranthony Dominguez/Victor Arano, RHPs, Phillies:

These two relievers were terrific out of the Phillies’ bullpen in 2018, but their health failed them last year. They combined for just 29 1/3 innings, most of which came from Dominguez. Whether they rebound this season will obviously depend in part on whether they’re actually able to take the mound with consistency. Arano, whom elbow surgery largely kept off the hill in 2019, does look as if he’s trending toward Opening Day readiness. That’s not the case for Dominguez, who just suffered a setback in his own recovery from elbow woes.

With the regular season approaching, we’re taking a look at hitters and pitchers from each division who are seeking bounce-back years in 2020. We’ve already covered the American League, so let’s head to the Senior Circuit and begin with 10 NL East hitters hoping to rebound from subpar 2019 showings this year.

Didi Gregorius, SS, Phillies:

With a one-year, $14MM guarantee, Gregorius was one of the Phillies’ highest-profile acquisitions during the offseason, though the former Yankees star landed the contract off a less-than-ideal platform year. After returning from Tommy John surgery on his right elbow in June, the 30-year-old hit a below-average .238/.276/.441 and totaled only 0.9 fWAR over 344 plate appearances. Gregorius also wound up under the league average in several important Statcast categories. Nevertheless, as someone who put up no worse than 4.0 fWAR in both 2017 and ’18, the Phillies are banking on a rebound; otherwise, they can simply move on after the season.

Johan Camargo, 3B, Braves:

The switch-hitting Camargo was a 3.0-fWAR player two seasons ago, but he fell flat last year, turning in a minus-0.5 effort with a dismal .233/.279/.384 line in 248 plate appearances. Despite that, he’s in the running (along with Austin Riley) to start at third base this season for the Braves, who lost previous No. 1 option Josh Donaldson in free agency.

Yan Gomes, C, Nationals:

Gomes earned the lone All-Star nod of his career in 2018, his final season with the Indians, but saw his offensive production dip in Year 1 with the Nationals. A slow start doomed Gomes to a .223/.316/.389 line in 358 PA, though he did experience a major offensive rebound in the second half. Defensively, while Gomes did throw out 31 percent of would-be base thieves, his pitch-framing numbers fell off a cliff. Still, the Nationals brought him back for two years and $10MM to once again team with Kurt Suzuki.

Robinson Cano, 2B, Mets:

Cano was supposed to be the long-term answer at second for the Mets, who paid a pretty penny for him and closer Edwin Diaz in a trade with the Mariners in December 2018. Instead, the longtime star turned in the worst season of his excellent career, batting .256/.307/.428 in 423 trips to the plate during an injury-shortened campaign. Cano recorded far better numbers during the second half of the season, though, and ranked near the top of the league in multiple Statcast categories (average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage). So, it may be too soon to declare the 37-year-old done; at least, the Mets hope that’s the case.

Wilson Ramos, C, Mets:

Ramos was yet another of the Mets’ hyped pre-2019 pickups whose first season with the team didn’t go as hoped. The 32-year-old did notch a respectable batting line for his position, slashing .288/.351/.416 across 524 PA, but it paled in comparison to what he did the previous season. And Ramos wasn’t exactly a strength defensively. He threw out just 15 percent of would-be base stealers and ended up near the bottom of the league in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric.

Jed Lowrie, INF, Mets:

There may not have been a more ill-fated addition for the Mets last offseason than Lowrie. Signed to a two-year, $20MM contract after back-to-back terrific seasons with the Athletics, multiple injuries limited Lowrie to nine games and eight plate appearances. The 35-year-old isn’t even a lock to participate this season, as he continues to deal with leg troubles. Even if Lowrie does play, he’s not slated to be anything more than a backup right now. Perhaps that will change as the season goes along, but Lowrie will have to get healthy first.

Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Mets:

Hey, another Met! Cespedes is coming off an injury-ravaged couple years – including an ailment he suffered during a run-in with a wild boar – but seems to be making progress now. The talent’s there for a bounce-back campaign, but if your stance is “I’ll believe it when I see it,” you’re not alone.

Brandon Nimmo, OF, Mets:

Maybe we should change the name of this list to “Mets Hitters Who Are Looking For Bounce-Back Seasons.” Nimmo was the most productive of this group last year, at least offensively, but his output fell shy of his coming-out party in 2018. Injuries held the on-base machine to 69 games, 254 PA, a .221/.375/.407 line and 1.3 fWAR. Meanwhile, his hard-hit percentage plummeted by seven points and his expected weighted on-base average dropped from .352 to .330, per Statcast.

Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Marlins:

Aguilar was among the game’s most prolific sluggers as a member of the Brewers in 2018, when he registered a 134 wRC+ and amassed 35 home runs. But he was unable to follow it up during a 2019 divided between Milwaukee and Tampa Bay. Aguilar concluded with an uninspiring .236/.325/.389 line and 12 homers across 389 trips to the plate. However, according to Statcast (.334 xwOBA versus .307 real wOBA), he may have deserved better. The Marlins are banking on that after plucking the 29-year-old off waivers over the winter.

Francisco Cervelli, C, Marlins:

Like Aguilar, Cervelli’s production dropped precipitously in 2019. The 34-year-old’s longtime concussion problems came to the forefront again, holding him to 160 PA of replacement-level production. But Cervelli was a very good contributor just two seasons ago, and for $2MM, Miami’s hoping he’ll serve as a solid complement and mentor to Jorge Alfaro.