Rays, Phillies Placing High Asking Prices On Starters
The asking prices for starting pitching don’t appear to be dipping even as some more supply hits the market, according to reports from ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick and Jayson Stark (Twitter link). Both the Rays and Phillies are said to be seeking significant returns on their best trade assets, buttressed by the idea that they don’t have to sell.
For Tampa Bay, the fact remains that none of its starters are set to reach free agency after the season, so there’s no real urgency to deal. The Rays’ surplus of controllable arms isn’t such a pressing matter that a deal is necessary, and none of its apparent trade pieces is really pitching to expectations. Jake Odorizzi has been steady enough, but the others — Chris Archer, Matt Moore, and Drew Smyly — have at best been inconsistent. Against that backdrop, perhaps it’s unsurprising that appealing offers have apparently not yet developed.
There’s plenty of time between now and the August 1st deadline for that to change, of course, but sources suggest to Crasnick that the odds are shifting towards a move over the winter. The Rays can hope that its starters turn around their performances while still feeling comfortable that the demand will be there given with a weak pending free agent class. As an executive on a buy-side teams explains it: “There’s no urgency for them to do stuff now. They can set a price, and if they don’t get it, they’ll take it into the offseason.”
As for the Phillies, the deadline is more or less all about one name: Jeremy Hellickson. According to Stark, the Phils are letting other teams know that they will require a top-five type of organizational prospect in order to part with the resurgent righty. Though he’s a free agent, Philadelphia is apparently content with the idea that it can recoup value via the qualifying offer.
That trade stance seems like an interesting gambit that the Phillies organization is well-positioned to try. Hellickson has been lights-out of late, and the rental market is otherwise headlined by an injured Rich Hill and inconsistent Andrew Cashner. Actually holding onto Hellickson is not certain to result in a draft pick — he might fall off in the next several months or could accept a QO — but it’s a plausible enough idea at this point given that Philly has ample financial muscle to actually make him an offer even in the midst of a rebuild.
Pitching Rumors: Chapman, Ervin, Hill, Hellickson, Ubaldo, Blue Jays
Joel Sherman of the New York Post walks readers through the winding process the Cubs took to reach an agreement on an Aroldis Chapman trade with the Yankees. Per Sherman, the Cubs never wanted to pursue a rental pitcher but weren’t able to convince the Yankees to back down from their demand of Kyle Schwarber. Chicago then turned to the Royals, only to find the asking price on Wade Davis to be even higher than the asking price on Miller. The Cubs weren’t willing to deal from their big league roster to upgrade the ‘pen but were willing to deal from their infield depth, parting with Class-A shortstop Gleyber Torres largely because of the presence of both Addison Russell and Javier Baez on the Major League roster. (Notably, Chicago also dealt from its first base depth in moving Dan Vogelbach for another left-handed reliever: Seattle’s Mike Montgomery.) Sherman adds that owner Hal Steinbrenner still wants to win in 2016 despite approving the Chapman swap, which calls into question whether the club would entertain even an overwhelming offer for Miller.
A few notes on the pitching market…
- Twins interim GM Rob Antony has expressed an openness to moving Ervin Santana if approached with a strong offer, but he tells Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that he’s not shopping the right-hander (Twitter link). “I’ll be honest,” said Antony, “I’m not calling anybody trying to move him.” As Antony explained yesterday in a Q&A with MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger, his feeling is that he couldn’t sign a pitcher of Santana’s effectiveness to a two-year, $27MM contract with a third-year club option (the remaining commitment on Santana’s deal after 2016) on the free agent market this winter and, as such, believes there to be enough value that he needn’t shop Santana to other clubs. Antony again stated that he’s not under any type of ownership mandate to trim payroll, suggesting that shedding Santana’s salary may not be all that appealing.
- Pitching is the Twins‘ biggest priority on the trade market this summer, according to Antony (Twitter link via Bollinger). While the club is clearly open to trading veteran pieces to acquire young pitching help, Antony said he’s also talked to other teams that are considered to be sellers about acquiring big league pitching — presumably MLB arms that are controllable well beyond the 2016 season.
- Athletics southpaw Rich Hill believes he’ll be able to pitch on Sunday after throwing 50 pitches with protective covering over his blistered left hand and another 20 without the cover, tweets John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group. Hill has scarcely been able to pitch since late May due to a groin strain and this newfound blister issue, but he remains a highly intriguing rental option thanks to a 2.25 ERA with 10.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 50 percent ground-ball rate through 76 innings out of the Oakland rotation this season. That would obviously give rival scouts just one more opportunity to look at Hill before Monday’s non-waiver deadline, but that could prove crucial given his limited recent exposure.
- Both the Rangers and Orioles were in attendance for Jeremy Hellickson‘s scoreless six innings for the Phillies against the Marlins last night, per ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. (The Marlins — Hellickson’s opponents — also obviously had evaluators on hand and have long been linked to Hellickson.) There’s no clear frontrunner for Hellickson’s services, Crasnick notes, but it’s a “virtual lock” that he’ll change teams on or before next Monday.
- The Padres asked the Orioles to include minor league left-hander Garrett Cleavinger and minor legaue righty Jhon Peluffo in the trade that would’ve sent Ubaldo Jimenez to San Diego in exchange for Melvin Upton Jr., according to MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko (on Twitter). However, FOX’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that the talks broke down over finances, and Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller adds (also via Twitter) that owner Peter Angelos had a late change of heart and altered the nearly agreed-upon deal — specifically the amount of money that would have changed hands. The Padres ultimately shifted course and sent Upton to the Blue Jays.
- Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins says he’s not done making moves after swooping in and acquiring Upton earlier this morning, via Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (links to Nicholson–Smith on Twitter). Atkins’ comments seemingly focused on pitching upgrades, with the GM indicating that the market for relief help is more robust than the market for starters at present. Atkins says he’s talked with all 29 other clubs on multiple occasions and is now focused on a smaller group of teams that could potentially upgrade his pitching staff. Asked specifically about the Padres — the Jays have been linked multiple times to Andrew Cashner, who tossed a quality start against them tonight — Atkins replied, “They have interesting pitching as well.”
Phillies Return Rule 5 Pick Daniel Stumpf To Royals
The Phillies announced today that left-hander Daniel Stumpf has cleared waivers after being designated for assignment last week. Stumpf, a Rule 5 pick back in December, has been offered back and returned to his original organization, the Royals. Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star tweets that procedure dictated that Stumpf be optioned back to Triple-A (his level at the time of his selection in the Rule 5), but the Royals will immediately transfer him to Double-A. Stumpf, 25, broke camp with the Phillies but quickly found himself slapped with an 80-game suspension after testing positive for dehydrochlormethyltestosterone, a substance that is banned under Major League Baseball’s Joint Drug Agreement.
In total, Stumpf logged just five innings with the Phillies, during which time he yielded six earned runs on nine hits and a pair of walks with two strikeouts. Stumpf spent the 2015 season with the Royals’ Double-A affiliate and pitched to a 3.57 ERA with a 76-to-31 K/BB ratio in 70 2/3 innings of work. While he held right-handed batters in check for the most part, Stumpf was an overwhelming force against lefties last year, limiting same-handed opponents to an dismal .167/.289/.250 batting line over the course of the year. Those high-quality results led to Stumpf’s selection in the Rule 5, but he’ll now look to work his way back to the Majors with the organization that originally drafted him in the ninth round of the 2012 draft.
Though Stumpf is back in the Royals organization, the Phillies still have one Rule 5 pick remaining on the roster; outfielder Tyler Goeddel is still with the club, although he’s batted just .211/.250/.337 in 177 plate appearances over the course of the year.
Deadline Rumors: Hellickson, Reds, Rangers, Aybar, Gibson, Twins
Here’s the latest on some notable players whose names have popped up in trade speculation…
- The Phillies are scouting the Marlins‘ rookie league affiliate for prospects in a possible Jeremy Hellickson trade, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link). The two NL East rivals have been connected to Hellickson rumors for a few weeks now, as Miami is known to be searching for rotation help. Given the lack of premium talent within the Marlins’ farm system, Hellickson could be a more reasonable acquisition than other Marlins targets like Jake Odorizzi, Matt Moore or even Chris Sale. The Pirates, Red Sox and Orioles are among the teams also linked to Hellickson in trade rumors.
- The Rangers are exploring many trade options and have been linked to multiple teams, though they don’t appear to have had any “substantive talks” with the Reds, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets. Texas has been linked to Jay Bruce, and the right fielder could be a fit with Shin-Soo Choo constantly battling injuries and Prince Fielder gone for the season, though Grant seems to imply that the Rangers’ interest in Bruce didn’t get too far. Anthony DeSclafani would certainly the attract the Rangers and other pitching-needy teams if Cincinnati made him available, though DeSclafani’s breakout year may have also made him into a building block for the rebuilding Reds.
- The Braves are “aggressively shopping” Erick Aybar and left-handed relievers, a rival executive tells Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link). Aybar would seem to have limited trade value given his horrible year at the plate, as his brief hot streak in June gave way to more struggles in July. Southpaws Hunter Cervenka and Ian Krol have generated some trade buzz already, and it’s possible Atlanta could be trying to sell high on Dario Alvarez. (UPDATE: Rosenthal’s tweet also listed Jeff Francoeur as a trade chip, but he has since issued a correction saying that the Braves aren’t shopping Francoeur and will only deal him if they get a big offer.)
- The Twins are in “listening mode — at best” on right-hander Kyle Gibson, a source on a contender tells Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press (Twitter links). The Twins “appear more focused” on trading Ervin Santana or Ricky Nolasco, which is no surprise given that the team would love to get some salary relief from either of those big contracts. Gibson has yet to truly live up to his former top prospect status, though he put up solid numbers in 2015 as a low-strikeout ground ball specialist. Gibson will become eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, and he is under team control through 2019.
- Also from Berardino (Twitter links), he speculates that the Twins could try to position themselves as the proverbial “third team” in a three-team trade. The Twins have some prospect depth that could be offered to contenders short on quality minor leaguers (Berardino cites the Marlins, Tigers, Mets and Orioles here) to help facilitate some deals, with Minnesota receiving some players who could help them next season but who are also still in their pre-arbitration years.
Cafardo’s Latest: Sox, D-backs, Royals, Marlins, Twins, Phillies
With the free-falling White Sox open to selling off veterans, power-hitting third baseman Todd Frazier could end up switching uniforms by the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Frazier is on a reasonable $7.5MM salary this year and will make one more trip through arbitration in the offseason. His .212/.300/.476 batting line is far from great, but the right-handed Frazier is second in the majors in home runs (28). Meanwhile, the team’s second-best starting pitcher, lefty Jose Quintana, is available for an “overwhelming” package, a major league source told Cafardo. The highly effective Quintana, 27, is controllable and affordable through 2020, and has logged a 3.13 ERA, 8.15 K/9 and 2.26 BB/9 in 123 2/3 innings this season.
More from Cafardo as the deadline draws closer:
- Regarding the possibility of the Diamondbacks trading star right-hander Zack Greinke in the first season of a six-year, $206.5MM contract, a source told Cafardo, “It would take a great return of players and the team would have to assume the entire contract. The Diamondbacks wouldn’t pay a dime.” It seems as if Greinke will stay put, then. Before landing on the disabled list with an oblique injury earlier this month, the soon-to-be 33-year-old recorded a 3.62 ERA, 7.49 K/9, 1.73 BB/9 and 47.6 percent ground-ball rate across his first 109 1/3 innings as a Diamondback.
- The Royals have interest in Red Sox righty Clay Buchholz, who’s currently in their bullpen, but Boston would have to pick up large portion of his remaining $13MM salary for 2016 in a trade. Buchholz’s contract also includes a $13.5MM club option for next season. In 20 appearances (13 starts) and 82 2/3 innings this season, the 31-year-old has compiled a sky-high 6.10 ERA to pair with ugly strikeout and walk rates (5.99 and 4.03, respectively, per nine).
- The Marlins scouted Red Sox southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez and a couple of Twins – right-hander Ricky Nolasco and left-hander Tommy Milone – in Boston earlier this week. It looks as though the 23-year-old Rodriguez is unavailable, per Cafardo. Nolasco, a former Marlin, is on a $12MM salary through next season and has continued a trend of having difficulty preventing runs this year (5.40 ERA) through 116 2/3 innings. Milone has also posted a lofty ERA (4.71 in 49 2/3 frames), though he carries a more modest salary of $4.5MM.
- Phillies righty Jeremy Hellickson is another candidate to join the Marlins, and southpaw reliever Mike Dunn could be part of a deal. As a 31-year-old pending free agent, Dunn would seemingly be an odd pickup for the rebuilding Phillies, however.
Phillies Designate Daniel Stumpf
The Phillies have designated lefty Daniel Stumpf for assignment, per a team announcement. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by righty Severino Gonzalez.
[Related: Updated Phillies Depth Chart]
Stumpf was a Rule 5 selection over the winter, meaning that he had to be kept on the active roster (or the 15-day DL) for the duration of the year for the Phillies to retain his rights. He was only recently activated after serving an 80-game PED suspension, and evidently didn’t show enough to warrant a roster spot.
It’s a short sample, but the numbers certainly weren’t there for Stumpf. He allowed six earned runs on nine hits and two walks, while recording just a pair of strikeouts, in five frames over seven total appearances on the year.
NL East Notes: Phillies, Gomez, Mets’ Bullpen, Prado
The Phillies may not possess any top-flight trade deadline pieces, but the organization does have some worthwhile assets. As MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes, GM Matt Klentak says trade talks have been “very active” of late. The Phils have “more confidence” in moving veterans with several top minor leaguers seemingly ready for an opportunity, said Klentak, who nevertheless stressed that he doesn’t feel compelled to make any deals. Reports have recently indicated that if (or when) right-hander Jeremy Hellickson is moved, another promising right-hander, Jake Thompson, will get a look in the rotation. Thompson, acquired in last summer’s Cole Hamels blockbuster, has a 0.58 ERA in his past 62 1/3 innings at Triple-A. His 37-to-17 K/BB ratio in that time is a bit more pedestrian, and he’s been aided by a .233 BABIP over that stretch, but he certainly seems ready for a call-up after impressing for much of the season.
A bit more on the Phillies and their division…
- Jeanmar Gomez has elevated his stock substantially in 2016, Zolecki writes, noting that he entered the season a a multi-inning middle reliever but has handled a move to the ninth inning with aplomb. Gomez isn’t a traditionally dominant power arm that is often associated with closing gigs, but he’s sporting a 2.76 ERA thanks in part to some of the strongest control and ground-ball rates he’s ever displayed. Gomez has averaged just 5.7 K/9 but is also yielding walks at a 2.2 per nine clip and has a 52.1 percent ground-ball rate in 45 2/3 innings. The Phillies have Hector Neris and Edubray Ramos serving as potential ninth-inning replacements in the event that Gomez is flipped.
- The Mets are monitoring right-handed relievers Joe Smith of the Angels, Chris Withrow of the Braves and Jeremy Jeffress of the Brewers, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post. Despite Bartolo Colon‘s recent struggles and uncertainty surrounding the bone spurs of both Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz, the Mets’ front office isn’t sure there’s a rotation upgrade to be had that would be worth the asking price. Notably, Puma also writes that a reunion with Tyler Clippard, whom Arizona GM Dave Stewart has said is available in trades, doesn’t seem likely. Smith’s asking price would be the lowest of the bunch, in my estimation, as he’s a pure rental. Jeffress and Withrow both have three years of club control remaining beyond this one, and Jeffress has had a better season than Withrow while emerging as Milwaukee’s closer this season, so he’s probably the toughest of the bunch to pry loose. As Puma pointed out earlier this week (on Twitter), Jim Henderson won’t be an option in the near future, as a hamstring injury suffered in the minors has forced him to restart his rehab assignment.
- The Marlins have yet to approach Martin Prado about a contract that would keep him in Miami beyond the 2016 season, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, though Jackson notes that he does fully expect Miami to attempt to re-sign the third baseman even if it waits until the offseason. A new deal for Prado would give the Marlins three players for second base and third base, leading Jackson to suggest that either Dee Gordon or Derek Dietrich could be moved for pitching this winter. Gordon’s 80-game PED suspension notwithstanding, it’s tough to imagine the Fish moving him this winter.
Latest On Jeremy Hellickson
Jeremy Hellickson was masterful tonight in what could potentially be his final start as a member of the Phillies, as he held the Marlins to a run on five hits and no walks with eight strikeouts in eight innings. Hellickson is widely expected to be traded prior to the Aug. 1 non-waiver deadline, and ESPN’s Jayson Stark writes that the Phillies are looking for a return similar to the one they got last summer in trading closer Jonathan Papelbon to the Nationals (right-handed pitching prospect Nick Pivetta). That is to say: they’re looking for a pitcher with a big arm (or multiple pitchers) not necessarily a top-tier prospect.
The Marlins themselves have had long-standing interest in Hellickson, Stark notes, and they got a first-hand look at the best he has to offer tonight. He adds that the Phillies will use the remaining money on Hellickson’s contract ($2.83MM through season’s end) as somewhat of a bargaining chip in talks, suggesting that they’ll be willing to eat some of the salary in order to enhance the prospect return from interested parties (if necessary). Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, meanwhile, tweets that Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill was present at tonight’s game in Philadelphia and saw Hellickson dominate his club first-hand.
CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury reports that the Orioles, too, were present to scout Hellickson’s outing. More importantly from Salisbury, he writes that the Orioles and Phillies have already had discussions pertaining to Hellickson. However, one pitching-hungry team that is not in the market for Hellickson, according to Stark (Twitter link), is the Tigers. And, the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Gelb adds that the Pirates and Giants had scouts present at the Hellickson outing, though they’ve been present at a good deal of Phillies games lately to monitor the team’s available relievers.
Hellickson, 29, lowered his earned run average to 3.84 with tonight’s gem, and he’s now sporting a strong 8.0 K/9 against an similarly strong 2.0 BB/9 with a 42.1 percent ground-ball rate in 119 2/3 innings of work this year. He’s slated to become a free agent at season’s end, so the trade will benefit him in the sense that it removes the possibility of a being saddled with a qualifying offer.
Giants Prioritizing Relief Additions
Giants GM Bobby Evans suggested yesterday that his organization is looking hard at relievers, in an appearance on the podcast of ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (audio link). Perhaps unsurprisingly, then, the organization is said to be “blanketing” the market for bullpen arms, according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link).
The Phillies and Brewers are among the rival teams being eyed by San Francisco scouts, per Crasnick’s report. It appears that the Giants are paying particular attention to Philly’s Jeanmar Gomez and David Hernandez, as well as Milwaukee’s Will Smith and Jeremy Jeffress. All of those players have featured on MLBTR’s breakdown of the top trade candidates, though only Jeffress has consistently cracked the ranking itself.
Notably, Crasnick adds that the Giants are mostly “lingering” in the market for Yankees’ relief aces Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller. The expectation seems to be that other National League contenders — namely, the Cubs and Nationals — are likely to be bigger players for those two high-octane lefties.
Evans had hinted that there’s a lot of demand to contend with on the market. That was a significant factor in the team’s decision to rely on some younger arms this year, he suggested. “We didn’t realize that half of baseball would be also looking for the same relievers and that the market would be so limited,” he said of the winter’s free agent market, “but that’s where we are.”
The San Francisco GM went on to note that his organization will not just be looking to build out depth in its relief corps. “We have a pretty strong bullpen in the sense of guys that are pretty hard to replace,” he said, “so you’re really trying to replace one guy, and we’ve got to be sure it’s an upgrade. So we won’t be getting a reliever just to get a reliever.”
Evans also touched upon the idea of adding an outfielder, which has often been noted as a possible need. With Hunter Pence nearing a return, the veteran executive indicated that the position isn’t a high priority. It seems that a depth addition could be considered, but isn’t viewed as essential.
Latest On Marlins’ Rotation Targets
TODAY: Miami is also interested in Andrew Cashner of the Padres and Michael Pineda of the Yankees, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). While New York is “not ready” to deal Pineda at this time, that presumably isn’t a limiting factor with regard to Cashner.
Both of these righties possess rather different profiles than does Hellickson. Cashner is also a pending free agent, but he arguably comes with a higher ceiling and a lower recent track record. Though he turned in his best start of the year recently, he is still carrying a lackluster 5.05 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 on the year. And Cashner has not only seen his fastball lose a full tick of velocity, but is running up a career-low 6.8% swinging strike rate.
Pineda has been similarly inconsistent, though perhaps there’s greater reason for optimism in his case. Despite a 5.56 earned run average, he’s carrying a robust 10.7 K/9 while issuing only 2.4 free passes per nine innings over his 100 1/3 frames on the year. That’s supported by the deeper peripherals: Pineda’s average heater is sitting at about 94 mph, and he is generating swings and misses on 13.7% of his pitches. Notably, too, Pineda comes with an added year of team control via arbitration.
YESTERDAY: The Marlins’ search for rotation help has spanned many targets over the past month, and MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro adds another name to the list today, tweeting that Miami is interested in division-rival Jeremy Hellickson of the Phillies. Marlins scouts and officials will get an up-close look at Hellickson this week, as he’s slated to pitch against Miami on Wednesday when the Fish are in Philadelphia. Notably, Frisaro adds that he does indeed expect Miami to make “a trade or two” prior to the Aug. 1 non-waiver deadline.
Hellickson, 29, is in the midst of his best season since 2012. The 2011 American League Rookie of the Year was brilliant early in his career after graduating from top prospect status, but he posted a 4.86 ERA from 2013-15 with the Rays and D-backs while battling elbow and hamstring injuries. This year, he’s taken the mound 19 times and posted a solid 4.03 ERA in 111 2/3 innings (despite a hitter-friendly home environment) while averaging 7.9 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 to go along with a 41 percent ground-ball rate. That type of work certainly doesn’t make him a front-line addition to a rotation, but the Marlins have reportedly been seeking a dependable source of innings to round out the back of their rotation as opposed to a top-tier starter to pair with ace Jose Fernandez. In that sense, Hellickson fits the bill.
The trouble for the Marlins, as we’ve noted in the past, is that their farm system is among the worst-regarded in all of baseball, and they already thinned it out by moving well-regarded right-hander — Chris Paddack — to pluck Fernando Rodney from the Padres. The organization’s top prospect entering the season, Tyler Kolek, underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this year as well, though it’s unlikely that the Marlins would’ve been particularly fond of the notion of parting with him in exchange for a two-month rental. That same reluctance would presumably apply to 2015 first-rounder Josh Naylor — the club’s new top-ranked prospect.
None of that is to say that the Marlins can’t work out a trade for Hellickson (or another starter), of course. Even a weak farm system has intriguing names throughout its ranks, and the asking price on Hellickson is unlikely to be exorbitant. He’s earning $7MM in his final season before free agency, and while he’s a candidate for a qualifying offer, the Phils may not be keen on the idea of offering $16MM+ to a player they acquired as a salary dump. Hellickson has exceeded the expectations of most pundits, and the safer play for the Phillies would likely be to cash in on him now rather than face the QO dilemma in October.
The Marlins have also been connected to the likes of Jake Odorizzi, Matt Moore, Rich Hill, Chris Archer and Ervin Santana this summer, and they reportedly expressed interest in Drew Pomeranz and Bud Norris before their respective trades to the Red Sox and Dodgers. At 49-42, they’re six games back from the division-leading Nationals and in a tie with the division-rival Mets for the second NL Wild Card spot.