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Arbitration Eligibles: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies won their hundredth game last night, and with two games remaining against Atlanta they have a hand in determining who they'll play when the NLDS begins Saturday.  But for the moment, let's look ahead to their arbitration class as the next entry in our arbitration eligibles series.

There is a case for non-tendering Valdez and Orr, though neither player would earn even $1MM in 2012.  Francisco and Kendrick seem useful enough at $1.5MM and $3.3MM, respectively.

Pence and Hamels are the big-money cases.  Pence projects at $11MM, a $4.1MM raise after he won his arbitration hearing in February for $6.9MM.  Hamels signed a three-year extension in January of '09, but smartly left his final arbitration year open.  With a $9.5MM salary this year, he's in line for more than $14MM in 2012.  The Phillies plan to give Hamels a couple of relief innings tomorrow, with an eye on possibly getting him his 15th win.  Matt Swartz tweets that the gesture would cost them an extra $200K in arbitration if successful, according to our model.

Retaining Kendrick, Francisco, Pence, and Hamels could cost about $30MM for 2012.  Including Roy Oswalt's buyout, the Phillies project to have about $143MM in 2012 commitments before accounting for minimum salary players.  That's about $23MM less than this year's Opening Day payroll.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

Outrighted To Triple-A: Jason Rice, Juan Perez

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Let's keep track of the day's outright assignments right here, starting with a pair of moves courtesy of the International League transactions page…

  • The Indians have outrighted Jason Rice to Triple-A. The 25-year-old had been designated for assignment earlier this month, soon after Cleveland claimed him off waivers from the Athletics, who had acquired him from the Red Sox for Conor Jackson. Rice posted a 3.69 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, and 0.6 HR/9 in 85 1/3 Triple-A innings this year.
  • The Phillies have outrighted Juan Perez to Triple-A. The 33-year-old lefty pitched to a 5.70 ERA in 36 1/3 Triple-A innings this season, and was generally ineffective in five appearances with the big league team. He was designated for assignment last weekend as part of a flurry of roster moves.

NL East Notes: Wang, Rollins, Nunez, Capuano

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The Nationals have won nine of their last eleven games, including a four-game sweep of the Phillies.  They'll try to keep their hot streak alive tonight against the struggling Braves, who hold just a two-game lead over the Cardinals in the NL wild card race.  Some news from the NL East….

  • The Nationals are in the "preliminary stages" of negotiations with Chien-Ming Wang about an extension, Wang's agent Alan Nero tells MLB.com's Bill Ladson (Twitter link).
  • C.C. Sabathia thinks Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins may sign with the Giants in the offseason, reports Jon Heyman from Sports Illustrated (Twitter link).  Sabathia and Rollins are long-time friends and, as Heyman notes, Rollins was the first to predict that Sabathia would sign with the Yankees in the 2008-09 offseason.
  • The Marlins may have been unable to deal Leo Nunez at the trade deadline due to the ongoing saga of Nunez's true identity, reports Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald.  Within that same link, Dan LeBatard is reporting that Major League Baseball (who must've been aware of Nunez's issues, as the Marlins were) nixed a deal involving Nunez last July.
  • Chris Capuano is interested in returning to the Mets next year but said he prefers to be a starting pitcher whenever he goes, reports Andy Martino of the New York Daily News.
  • Jose Reyes likes playing for the Mets but isn't sure how his free agency will play out this winter, reports Adam Rubin of ESPN New York.  "This is the only team that I played [for] so far in my whole career," Reyes said. "I feel comfortable here. I feel good with the ownership. I feel like we are family and stuff like that. At the same time, this is a business. And to be honest with you, I don't know what's going to happen. 
  • Davey Johnson wants the Nationals to add some outfield depth this winter, writes MLB.com's Bill Ladson.
  • Tyler Kepner of the New York Times explores the possibility that southpaw Mike Zagurski (dealt from the Phillies to the Diamondbacks earlier today) could end up returning to Philadelphia as the player to be named later in the deal, a rare "traded for himself" move.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Roy Oswalt

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Late Thursday night, Phillies starter Roy Oswalt quietly joined the ranks of (likely) free agents. The right-hander is no longer considering retirement after this season, but the Phillies probably won't exercise their end of his $16MM mutual option for 2012, according to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, although they might be interested in bringing back Oswalt on a more affordable deal. To decline the option, the Phillies will have to pay Oswalt a $2MM buyout.

Oswalt, who turned 34 in August, joined the Phillies last season after ten years in Houston, where he was the staff ace. With the Phils, he's the fourth starter in an historically deep rotation, behind Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. No shame in being the fourth-chair violin in that orchestra.

Though he's 34 and has struggled with a back injury in 2011, Oswalt has been mostly sturdy throughout his career, making fewer than 30 starts only twice (2003 and '11) in ten full seasons. Along with that dependability, Oswalt has posted strong numbers: 3.22 ERA (3.35 FIP), 7.35 K/9, 2.09 BB/9 and a 47% groundball rate. Those figures earned him a five-year, $73MM extension with the Astros in 2006.

Since Oswalt makes $16MM this season, and the Phils won't be exercising their end of his $16MM mutual option, they obviously won't offer him arbitration. That will make him more attractive to suitors on the free-agent market, as any team that signs him won't have to forfeit compensatory draft picks (as MLBTR's latest Elias Rankings show, Oswalt projects as a Type A free agent).

As of now, it's tough to say what kind of contract Oswalt will be seeking this offseason, because we don't know how long he'll want to pitch. He has flirted with retirement before, so he might prefer to work on a year-to-year basis, not unlike the Dodgers' Hiroki Kuroda. In that case, there would be a lot of suitors for Oswalt's services, and he could probably sign with a contender for a salary in the neighborhood of Kuroda's $12MM. If Oswalt is happy with the Phils and wants to return to the stacked rotation for a year, he'd likely have to take a salary below market value — maybe $8MM or so — as the Phils are already on the hook for that $2MM buyout, not to mention their other financial commitments and likely pursuits of re-signing Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Madson, and extending Hamels.

If Oswalt wants a multiyear deal, there are two recent cases that make for interesting comparisons. Earlier this month, the Cardinals extended Chris Carpenter for two years and $21MM. I think Oswalt would have plenty of bidders at that price. Here's another: Two years ago, the Braves extended Tim Hudson, then only 16 months removed from Tommy John surgery, for three years and $28MM. Oswalt's eventual deal might compare favorably to either of those, since he will be negotiating with many teams rather than one, but they should provide a rough basis.

East Notes: Collins, Epstein, Phillies

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Yankees GM Brian Cashman's remarks regarding his feigned pursuit of Carl Crawford are creating some buzz today, unsurprisingly. Here are some other items of note out of the east …

  • The Mets will decide whether they'll exercise manager Terry Collins' 2013 option within the next 10 days, a source tells Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. The club will also have to decide on whether to bring back all of Collins' coaches, whose contracts are expiring, except for hitting coach Dave Hudgens.
  • Red Sox GM Theo Epstein told ESPNBoston.com that there's no "disconnect" between him and manager Terry Francona. The latter's job security has been a hot topic on talk radio shows and the like this week, what with the Red Sox owning just a two-game lead over the Rays in both the AL East and the AL Wild Card entering Friday's action. Boston, of course, appeared to be a lock for the postseason only a month ago.
  • The Phillies will lead the Major Leagues in attendance in 2011, writes Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com. With the second highest payroll in the big leagues at $175MM, the great turnout will certainly help pay some of the bills. The Phils sold out their 204th consecutive home game on Thursday, a stretch that dates back to 2009, according to Salisbury.

Diamondbacks Acquire Zagurski; Designate Vasquez

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The Diamondbacks have acquired left-handed reliever Mike Zagurski from the Phillies in exchange for a player to be named, Zagurski's agent tells Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer (Twitter link). Arizona announced it designated reliever Esmerling Vasquez for assignment in a corresponding 40-man-roster move.

Zagurski, 28, was among three players whom the Phillies designated for assignment last week. The southpaw pitched to a 2.65 ERA in 54 1/3 innings with Triple-A Lehigh Valley this season but has struggled in 37 career big league outings, posting a 6.82 ERA in parts of three seasons. His 10.2 K/9 rate is promising, but he struggles with his control (5.4 BB/9).

Arizona's magic number number to clinch the NL West is down to 1, but Zagurski, who will be added to the active roster for the regular season's balance, will not be eligible for the postseason roster.

Vasquez, 27, has posted a 4.66 ERA in 141 career Major League games, spanning parts of three seasons with Arizona. The Dominican right-hander was signed as an international free agent in 2003.

The Diamondbacks' active roster is currently at 33 after the moves. The 40-man roster is full.

Quick Hits: Oswalt, Dipoto, Conditioning

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The Phillies suffered their first sweep since August 2010 on Thursday night, but they got good news regarding the long-term outlook of one of their starting pitchers. More on that in this late-night grab bag of links …

  • Phillies righty Roy Oswalt's agent, Bob Garber, said that the 33-year-old is no longer considering retiring after this season, according to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. Oswalt and the Phils have a $16MM mutual option for 2012, although Zolecki writes that it's unlikely the Phils will exercise their end of that deal. The Phils could bring back Oswalt on a lesser deal, however. In February, Oswalt, who has dealt with back injuries in recent years, said, "I'm going to play this year and see how it goes."
  • Diamondbacks senior vice president of scouting and development Jerry Dipoto has played an integral role in Arizona's resurgence this year, writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The Snakes' former interim GM remained with the organization last offseason, even though he was a candidate for the full-time GM job and didn't get it. Dipoto was interviewed recently by Tim Dierkes as part of MLBTR's GM Candidates series, so be sure to check that out.
  • Teams are moving closer to monitoring their players' physical conditioning year-round, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.com, although the players' union likely won't care for it. Some executives are growing increasingly frustrated by players who report to Spring Training out of shape or let themselves go during the season, according to Olney.

Stark On CBA, Rays, Lidge, Rockies

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ESPN.com's Jayson Stark makes the case that Justin Verlander is the MVP of the American League before providing a new set of rumblings from around baseball. Here they are…

  • MLB and the players' association hope to announce the details of a new labor deal before the World Series ends, but they have some major issues to work out before then. Stark hears that the draft, including spending and compensation, could be an ongoing source of tension this month.
  • The sides have discussed a reverse luxury tax that would penalize teams that spend well under the average payroll.
  • MLB executives are impressed by the way the Rays have resisted rushing young pitchers to the Major Leagues to ensure they're prepared for a full season of work once they arrive. Tampa Bay executive Gerry Hunsicker says it's "not rocket science."
  • One rival executive thinks James Shields is staying put this winter. It won't be surprising if the Rays listen on Shields, since he would have through-the-roof value as a trade chip.
  • Brad Lidge, who has pitched well since returning from the disabled list, will listen to offers from teams that are interested in him as a setup man this offseason, according to agent Rex Gary. There's no indication that the Phillies have discussed a new deal with Lidge, though he is open to returning to Philadelphia (the team will decline its $12.5MM option for 2012). 
  • The Rockies will try to lower payroll by $4MM or so to the $83-84MM range this offseason and they may get partway there by dealing Chris Iannetta.
  • Stark heard from rival executives who expect Albert Pujols to stay in St. Louis, Prince Fielder to join the Nationals and Jose Reyes to sign in San Francisco.

Heyman On Fielder, Rollins, Madson

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SI's Jon Heyman leads his column by ranking the favorites for Prince Fielder, putting the Brewers sixth while noting that owner Mark Attanasio "should never be counted out and is expected to make one final run" to retain his slugger.  Heyman's other notes:

  • The Phillies "very much" want to re-sign shortstop Jimmy Rollins.  Heyman thinks the Phillies are willing to do a three-year contract while Rollins is expected to seek four or five.  Rollins, 33 in November, is hitting .268/.338/.395 in 582 plate appearances this year.  UZR continues to rate his defense as above average, and it seems likely Rollins will score an eight-figure salary for the first time in his career.
  • The Red Sox "are thought to have interest" in Phillies closer Ryan Madson.  Madson, a 31-year-old Scott Boras client, has a 2.54 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.32 HR/9, and 50% groundball rate in 56 2/3 innings this year.  Last week MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith explained that Madson will probably cost another team a draft pick, but a three-year deal appears likely.  In March, Madson said he wanted to finish his career with the Phillies.

 

Phillies Designate Three For Assignment

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The Phillies have designated Drew Naylor, Juan Perez, and Mike Zagurski for assignment according to a team press release. The moves free up 40-man roster spots for Erik Kratz, Joe Savery, and Brandon Moss, all of whom were called up from the minors. Domonic Brown and Justin DeFratus were also recalled.

Naylor, 25, pitched to a 4.63 ERA in 167 innings for Philadelphia's Double-A affiliate last year. The 33-year-old Perez posted a 5.70 ERA in 36 1/3 Triple-A innings this season, and was generally ineffective in five appearances with the big league team. Zagurski, 28, had a 2.65 ERA in 54 1/3 relief innings at Triple-A this season, and he also appeared in four games in the show. Naylor is a righty, but both Perez and Zagurski are left-handed.

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