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Poll: Ryan Madson Vs. Heath Bell

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Most statistics say Phillies closer Ryan Madson had a better 2011 than Padres stopper Heath Bell.  Madson is three years younger, but Bell has tallied three consecutive 40-save seasons.  Both righties are Type A free agents, and guessing their contracts is an interesting exercise.

In the last three years, Madson has increased his strikeout rate to more than a batter per inning while maintaining strong walk and groundball rates.  He had a reputation as someone who was better off in the eighth than the ninth inning heading into this year, but Madson silenced those critics by converting 32 of 34 opportunities once pressed into duty.  He's represented by Scott Boras, and will find a three-year deal with ease.  No free agent reliever has gotten a four-year deal since Francisco Cordero and Scott Linebrink four years ago, but I think Madson has a shot.

Bell experienced a marked decline in strikeout rate this year, showing signs of his old rate only in September.  He still limited hits and home runs and converted 43 of 48 save opportunities.  Bell wants and expects to remain in San Diego, saying in August that he'd accept arbitration if the Padres offer.  Padres owner Jeff Moorad said one year was preferable to the team in some ways.  It was reported later that month that the Padres offered a two-year, $14MM deal while Bell was seeking $27-30MM over three years.  Bell is represented by ACES, an agency known for getting strong multiyear deals for veteran free agents.

For the sake of argument, let's say both relievers reach the open market.  That's not hard to picture with Madson, who will certainly cost a draft pick to sign.  For Bell to reach the open market, the Padres would probably have to decline to offer him arbitration.  So in this scenario Madson costs a draft pick to sign and Bell does not.  Working under these assumptions, which reliever gets a bigger overall contract, Madson or Bell? 

Bigger contract: Ryan Madson or Heath Bell?
Heath Bell 56.24% (3,966 votes)
Ryan Madson 43.76% (3,086 votes)
Total Votes: 7,052

Phillies Links: Howard, Contracts, NL East

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The Phillies won 102 games during the regular season, but won only two during the best-of-five NLDS. Because last night's loss to Chris Carpenter and the Cardinals wasn't bad enough, Ryan Howard suffered a serious Achilles injury on the final play of the game. Let's round up the latest from Philadelphia…

  • In a press release, the team announced that Howard has a rupture of his right Achilles tendon. He'll have surgery after the swelling subsides, and a timetable for his return won't be known until after the procedure is performed. There is "no guarantee he will be ready for spring training," says the release.
  • Bob Brookover of The Philadelphia Inquirer dug through the Phillies roster, and says they might have to go over the luxury tax threshold next season in order to patch all their holes.
  • David Murphy of The Philadelphia Daily News put together of list of questions the Phillies must answer this offseason. Howard's injury figures to impact their 2012 plans.
  • MLB.com's Brian McTaggart wrote about the key contract decisions the team has to make. The Phillies have about $113MM in commitments for next season, but Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Madson, Brad Lidge, and Roy Oswalt can all become free agents (Lidge and Oswalt have pricey options).
  • Ben Goessling of MASNSports.com says the Phillies could open a window of opportunity for the other teams in the NL East if they decide to fill some of their roster holes with youth.

Quick Hits: Prince, Wilken, Blue Jays

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A few late-night items of note as a thriller in the Bronx reaches its climax …

  • Baltimore Sports and Life polled 17 analysts about the Orioles' odds of signing impending free agent Prince Fielder. Interestingly, opinions vary wildly about whether the O's should even pursue Prince, not to mention what kind of financial commitment it might take to procure his services.
  • Cubs scouting director Tim Wilken will be watching a pair of his notable draft selections when Phillies co-ace Roy Halladay squares off against his Cardinals counterpart, Chris Carpenter, in Friday's NLDS Game 5, writes Carrie Muskat of MLB.com. Wilken tabbed both of those pitchers when he was scouting director in Toronto, and he provides some cool insight into how each hurler was regarded before they became household names.
  • Andrew Stoeten of Drunk Jays Fans breaks down Toronto's outfield, replete with sound, humorous analysis and a spelling of "center" that looks odd to those of us in the States. Be sure to check it out.

NL East Notes: Johnson, Phillies, Nationals, Flores

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Let's take a look at a few items out of the NL East..

  • There's no question in the mind of MLB.com's Bill Ladson that Davey Johnson will be back as manager of the Nationals in 2012 as players and people in the front office have told said that they want Johnson back in the same role.  Ladson also writes that Carlos Beltran is not a fit for the Nats and believes that he should get no more than a one-year deal due to his injury history.
  • The Red Sox will consider Phillies coach Pete Mackanin as a managerial candidate, sources tell Buster Olney of ESPN.com (via Twitter).
  • Jorge Arangure Jr. of ESPN The Magazine spoke with Ruben Amaro Jr. and Ed Wade about how Amaro came to join the Phillies as assistant GM.  The former outfielder had zero experience between going from the field to the front office.  
  • Nationals catcher Jesus Flores sounds like a player who may want to continue his career elsewhere, writes Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post.  Kilgore says that Flores doesn't seem bitter or angry about his lack of playing time, but he doesn't sound content.

East Notes: Orioles, Rays, Rollins, Lee, Zambrano

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Some links pertaining to baseball's Eastern divisions for your Sunday evening reading:

  • Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun wonders if the reason we've yet to hear anything regarding Thursday's summit involving Orioles owner Peter Angelos and president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail is because Angelos has convinced MacPhail to stay with the club in an advisory capacity. MacPhail will give up his current title, but Schmuck believes Angelos would give him any title he desired short of co-owner to keep him around.
  • Steve Melewski of MASNsports believes Buck Showalter should remain the manager of the Orioles, not take over the position of GM. That said however, Showalter needs to work closely with the new GM to honestly evaluate the organization on all levels to turn the franchise around.
  • Rays manager Joe Maddon endorses his bench coach Davey Martinez wholeheartedly for the White Sox managerial opening, and told Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune that he'd "do somersaults" if Martinez got the job, despite how difficult he'd be to replace.
  • It's probably implied by the five-year deal he's seeking, but Jimmy Rollins won't be offering the Phillies a hometown discount, according to this MLB.com report from Todd Zolecki, Brian McTaggart, and Nate Mink.
  • Tyler Kepner of the New York Times writes that Cliff Lee is one of the most popular athletes in recent Philadelphia history, and spoke with GM Ruben Amaro Jr. and the $120MM man himself about his decision to return to the Phillies last offseason.
  • The Miami Sun Sentinel's Juan C. Rodriguez questions whether pitching for Ozzie Guillen and the Marlins and getting away from Chicago would make Carlos Zambrano a better citizen. While Zambrano could change in Miami, Rodriguez points out his declining K/9 and increasing WHIP as red flags that need to be considered along with his character.

Central Notes: Fister, Pence, Cubs

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A few items of note regarding teams from MLB's Central divisions, as the Cards fall behind the Phils in Game 1 of the NLDS.

  • The Tigers preferred Doug Fister to Ubaldo Jimenez when they were shopping for a pitcher before the trade deadline, according to Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com. Whether that's true, we'll probably never know, but Fister certainly pitched better for Detroit than Jimenez did for Cleveland after the deadline. The Mariners were originally hesitant to move Fister, according to Knobler, but Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski was persistent in pursuing the right-hander.
  • The Reds tried to acquire Hunter Pence from the Astros, according to Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News, and GM Walt Jocketty has said he thought he made a better offer to Houston than the one it eventually accepted from the Phillies. McCoy reports that the Astros wanted Devin Mesoraco and adds that lefty Aroldis Chapman was not available.
  • The Cubs remain in limbo while waiting to hire a new general manager, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, who notes that the fates of manager Mike Quade, his coaches, and several players are up in the air until someone takes the helm. The Cubs are unlikely to spend lavishly this offseason, according to Sullivan.

How The NL Playoff Starters Were Acquired

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Earlier this afternoon, we examined how the American League playoff teams assembled their postseason rotations. Now, let's hop over to the National League. Once again, in the event of series sweeps, postponements, or managerial changes of heart, this list could undergo some changes, but these are currently the probable starters for the NLDS.

Brewers

Yovani Gallardo: Selected in the 2004 draft (2nd round).
Zack Greinke: Acquired from the Royals in December 2010.
Shaun Marcum: Acquired from the Blue Jays in December 2010.
Randy Wolf: Signed for three years, $29.75MM in December 2009.

Last winter, the Brewers went all-in when they traded for Marcum and Greinke in the span of two weeks. So far, the decision has paid off, as the two former AL starters are lined up to pitch Games 2 and 3 of the Division Series against the Diamondbacks.

Diamondbacks

Ian Kennedy: Acquired from the Yankees in December 2009.
Daniel Hudson: Acquired from the White Sox in July 2010.
Josh Collmenter: Selected in the 2007 draft (15th round).
Joe Saunders: Acquired from the Angels in July 2010.

The D'Backs were practically in fire sale mode when they moved Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson last summer. Now, just one season later, two pitchers they acquired in those deals could start for the Snakes in the postseason. Interestingly, Arizona is the only NL playoff team whose rotation doesn't include a starter acquired from the Blue Jays.

Phillies

Roy Halladay: Acquired from the Blue Jays and extended for three years, $60MM in December 2009.
Cliff Lee: Signed for five years, $120MM in December 2010.
Cole Hamels: Selected in the 2002 draft (1st round, 17th overall).
Roy Oswalt: Acquired from Astros in July 2010.

The Phillies have made a handful of blockbuster moves over the last two years to ensure they have the starting pitching edge over the rest of the league heading into this postseason. But Hamels and fifth man Vance Worley (3.01 ERA in 131 2/3 IP) prove the Phils are skilled at developing their own starters too.

Cardinals

Kyle Lohse: Originally signed in March 2008. Extended for four years, $41MM in September 2008.
Chris Carpenter: Originally signed in December 2003. Extended for five years, $63MM in December 2006.
Jaime Garcia: Selected in the 2005 draft (22nd round).
Edwin Jackson: Acquired from the Blue Jays in July 2011.

When they traded Colby Rasmus for Jackson, Corey Patterson, and a pair of relievers this July, GM John Mozeliak and the Cardinals were widely panned, but it's hard to argue the move didn't help the team win the Wild Card race. Still, without Adam Wainwright, and unable to optimally line up their rotation, the Cards head into the NLDS as significant underdogs against the Phils' big four.

NL East Links: Rollins, Lowe, Heyward, Nats

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The National League portion of the playoffs don't start until tomorrow, but there's plenty of news coming out of Senior Circuit. Let's round up some links from the NL East…

  • "That's a tough call, a tough call" joked Jimmy Rollins of the Phillies when asked by Newsday's David Lennon if he would play in New York (Twitter link). Rollins will become a free agent after the season, like Mets shortstop Jose Reyes.
  • Braves GM Frank Wren told Dave O'Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution that Derek Lowe is not projected to have a spot in the rotation next year (Twitter link). The bullpen or a trade are options. Lowe is owed $15MM next year, the final one on his contract.
  • Wren also said that Jason Heyward is not guaranteed to start in right field next year, but the GM told MLB.com's Mark Bowman that the Braves have never talked about trading the 22-year-old (Twitter link).
  • Mark Zuckerman of CSNWashington.com looked at five issues the Nationals must deal with this offseason, including settling on a manager.

In-Season Trades By The 2011 Playoff Teams

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It's hard to fake your way through 162 games, so most MLB playoff teams have earned the right to play in October. Once every few years, a team in a weak division slips into the playoffs with a mediocre record, but teams like the 2005 Padres and 2006 Cardinals are exceptions.

Now that this year's postseason lineup has been determined, we have the chance to look back at the trades the eight playoff teams made this year. Here's a summary of the in-season acquisitions that made an impact for one of MLB's 2011 playoff teams (linked team names go to our Transaction Tracker):

National League

American League

All four National League teams added valuable contributors in midsummer trades. The Rangers improved their bullpen with a pair of highly-coveted late-inning relievers and the Tigers acquired Doug Fister, who posted a 1.79 ERA with a 57K/5BB ratio in 70 1/3 innings down the stretch and is arguably the acquisition of the season.

After months of rumors about the Yankees' interest in starting pitching, GM Brian Cashman remained quiet on the trade front. The Wild Card Rays were also inactive despite constant rumors about B.J. Upton, James Shields, Johnny Damon and others. Tampa Bay's midseason acquisitions came from the minor leagues, where Desmond Jennings and Matt Moore began the season.

The Yankees and Rays are not averse to trading players – Cashman nearly acquired Cliff Lee last summer and Friedman makes major trades just about every year. Similarly, the Tigers and Brewers aren't this aggressive every year – they simply saw potential upgrades on the market. If there's a lesson here it's that the significance of the trade market varies wildly from year to year and from team to team. 

Rollins Seeks Five-Year Deal

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Jimmy Rollins finds the prospect of free agency "exciting," and the shortstop told SI's Jon Heyman, "Five [years] would be great.  Five would be the number."  Rollins, however, guesses the number of years will be the sticking point in upcoming negotiations.

Rollins, 33 in November, is hitting .271/.340/.403 with 16 home runs in 624 plate appearances this year.  His defense continues to be a positive.  A pair of executives gave Heyman contract estimates ranging from three years and at least $12MM per year to four years and $14MM annually.  I think five years is unrealistic even on the open market, but at least one team would commit to four.  Rollins' only real competition will be Jose Reyes, who figures to get at least five years and $18MM per season.

As I showed yesterday, it appears that the Phillies can afford Rollins without raising their payroll.

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