Heyman On Harper, Werth, Rollins
SI's Jon Heyman has word on Bryce Harper's expected demand after the 17-year-old catcher is drafted next month. Heyman says the Scott Boras advisee "will seek to break last year's record $15.67 million bonus set by Stephen Strasburg." It should be noted that in most places Strasburg's big league deal is reported as $15.1MM. That deal included a $7.5MM bonus. Back on April 20th, Baseball America's Jim Callis predicted Harper would sign for eight figures but less than Strasburg. For more on the largest contracts in draft history, check out Mike Axisa's recent post. On to Heyman's other rumors…
- Heyman writes of pessimism that the Phillies can re-sign Jayson Werth.
- Heyman adds that "People around baseball do expect the Phillies to make a huge effort to extend Jimmy Rollins beyond 2011, though there's no evidence there's any progress on that front." Perhaps as a sign of goodwill, the Phillies exercised Rollins' $8.5MM club option for 2011 in December of '09. Will the Phils give Rollins the Ryan Howard treatment, and extend him well before they need to?
Discussion: Raul Ibanez
Raul Ibanez is in the second season of a three-year, $31.5MM deal with the Phillies, and so far 2010 isn't treating him as well as the first half of 2009 did. Last season, Ibanez got off to a torrid start, hitting 340/.399/.716 with 19 homers in his first 50 games. This year, the 37-year-old has yet to find his stroke, posting a slash line of just .221/.341/.338.
Ibanez is a notoriously streaky hitter, and it's possible another hot stretch like last year's is right around the corner. It's only May 1st and there are plenty of reasons to believe he'll right the ship, such as his .341 OBP, which is right in line with his career rate (.346) and his 2009 rate (.347). If Ibanez's struggles continue, however, it's a cause of concern for the two-time defending National League champs. In addition to this year's slow start, the outfielder finished 2009 by hitting 228/.313/.446 after those aforementioned first 50 games. Ibanez will turn 38 this month, and one has to wonder if his age is starting to catch up to him.
As a piece on ESPN.com's MLB Rumors page notes, Ibanez's leash will be long. The Phillies owe him $11.5MM in each of the next two seasons, and won't want to pay him that money to sit on the bench. Plus, their alternatives aren't overly appealing — in limited playing time, Ben Francisco has also struggled this year, and prospect Domonic Brown is probably not quite major league ready.
So what are the Phillies' options if Ibanez's numbers don't improve? Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer suggested that the club's best bet of retaining Jayson Werth beyond this year involved moving Ibanez to help clear salary space, but in addition to the $23MM he's owed, Ibanez's no-trade protection is problematic. Can you see the Phillies attempting to make any roster moves, or will this end up being a non-issue for the team?
Odds & Ends: Red Sox, Howard, Francisco, Mendoza
Links to check out as we await Cliff Lee's Mariners debut…
- BoSox manager Terry Francona says that the upcoming player move to make room on the roster for Daisuke Matsuzaka will almost certainly involve a pitcher, tweets Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald.
- If you play fantasy baseball, be sure to follow our @closernews feed on Twitter. We've got instant news on all closer situations, enabling you to conquer the save category.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports takes a behind-the-scenes look at the Ryan Howard extension negotiations, speaking to Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. and Howard's agent, Casey Close.
- In an MLB.com mailbag, T.R. Sullivan suggests that Frank Francisco could be a prime trade candidate in July, particularly if the Rangers are slipping from playoff contention.
- Luis Mendoza cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Omaha, tweets Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star. Mendoza was designated for assignment by the Royals last week.
- GM Jim Hendry says prospect Starlin Castro will join the Cubs at some point this season, but he won't say how soon, according to ESPNChicago. A source told Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago earlier in the week that Castro's promotion could be right around the corner.
- ESPN.com's Rob Neyer doesn't think the White Sox have any need for Jermaine Dye. We heard earlier today that Dye believes he'd be a fit for the South Siders.
- Talking to Tom Krasovic of AOL FanHouse, Brewers outfielder Jody Gerut explained why the Padres should retain Adrian Gonzalez.
- Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez answered questions from Denver Post readers, explaining that "it's a really bad feeling when you get traded" and he'd like to sign a contract "for a few years." Gonzalez is not arbitration-eligible until after the 2011 season, and he's represented by Scott Boras.
- The Yankees are not typically inclined to sign young players to long-term deals. It makes sense to maintain flexibility, as they did going year-to-year with Chien-Ming Wang. On the other hand, Joel Sherman of the New York Post points out that Robinson Cano's extension has worked out quite well. Will the Yankees exercise his $14MM club option for 2012, or choose the $2MM buyout?
- Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald believes that the future of the Red Sox catching position points more toward Adalberto Ibarra than Victor Martinez.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Howard, Prince, Konerko
On this date five years ago, Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux faced off in the first matchup of 300-game winners since Don Sutton and Steve Carlton in 1987. Maddux's Cubs topped Clemens' Astros by the score of 3-2.
Let's look at what's being written around the blogosphere, with a heavy dose of Ryan Howard contract reactions…
- Crashburn Alley breaks down the massive contract the Phillies gave their first baseman.
- More Hardball comes up with a few reasons to dislike the deal.
- Sports Are Involved… takes a look at the price of greatness.
- Disciples of Uecker examines what Howard's deal means for Prince Fielder.
- The Pale Hose Pariah wonders if the White Sox should look to sign Paul Konerko to an extension.
- 1 Blue Jays Way interviewed Jays' prospect Zach Stewart, part of last summer's Scott Rolen trade.
- The Baseball Opinion reviews the trade that sent Ben Zobrist from the Astros to Tampa Bay.
- Camden Depot looks at the trade value of draft picks, not that MLB allows such things.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Stark On Fielder, Howard, Sizemore, Frasor
Jayson Stark's latest Rumblings and Grumblings column is hot off the press at ESPN.com. Let's take a look.
- Stark explains that the potentially legendary 2012 first base free agent class may be further depleted, as Albert Pujols is expected to stay in St. Louis and Adrian Gonzalez could be traded and extended by his new team. Even Lance Berkman might stay put, leaving Prince Fielder as the remaining big name. There are some who rank Fielder below Ryan Howard, writes Stark.
- Stark says the Phillies signed Howard now because they felt a Pujols extension would drive up Howard's price. For an explanation straight from the horse's mouth, check out Todd Zolecki's MLB.com chat with Ruben Amaro Jr. and Pat Gillick.
- If the 2012 first base free agent class is loaded, will there be enough teams willing to shell out massive contracts? Stark says yes, naming a dozen teams he figures could be in the mix. Don't forget the Nationals and Orioles, two clubs that made huge bids for Mark Teixeira.
- Jayson Werth's agent Jeff Borris named the Jason Bay and Matt Holliday deals as frames of reference for his client. Stark takes that to mean Werth will be looking in the $16-17MM range. My question: does he get five years?
- One source of Stark's says the Indians have shown zero inclination to trade Grady Sizemore. Sizemore's $10MM club option for 2012 becomes a player option upon a trade, and Stark feels Sizemore would "almost certainly" exercise it – decreasing his trade value. That assumes, of course, that Sizemore doesn't turn things around anytime soon.
- Stark doesn't think the Red Sox have reached a desperation point regarding acquiring a catcher who can throw. Bringing in a Chris Snyder or a Gerald Laird might necessitate releasing David Ortiz or Mike Lowell.
- The Orioles have interest in Blue Jays reliever Jason Frasor.
- In a table, Stark provides an interesting look at teams' guaranteed money rankings for 2011 and '12. The Dodgers, interestingly, are very light on '12 commitments ($3.3MM).
Odds & Ends: Smoltz, D’Backs, Kemp, Howard
Links for Wednesday, as the Brewers wonder how to fix Trevor Hoffman…
- GM Frank Wren says not to expect any trades to upgrade the Braves' offense this early in the season, writes David O' Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
- John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle suggests the Giants ought to monitor the potential availability of Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez.
- John Smoltz isn't throwing, but he also won't say he's officially retired, tweets Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. We looked yesterday at a couple teams that could be fits for Smoltz, if the 42-year-old decides to pitch again.
- MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince writes that the Indians will have to decide on the future of Rule 5 pick Hector Ambriz next week. Ambriz's rehab assignment expires on May 8th.
- Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic talked to Diamondbacks general manager Josh Byrnes, who said he doesn't want to overreact to the team's bullpen struggles. Byrnes seems to want to hold on to his trade chips for now.
- Asked about Matt Kemp by KABC's Peter Tilden, Dodgers GM Ned Colletti expressed his dissatisfaction with the center fielder's baserunning and defense. Said Colletti: "Why is it? Because he got a new deal? I can't tell you." Regarding acquiring pitching, Colletti said it's too early to get into trade talk.
- Joe Posnanski wonders when age will catch up with Ryan Howard.
- Designated hitter is supposed to be an easy position to fill, but ESPN's Jerry Crasnick finds nine teams struggling for offense out of the spot.
Discussion: Jimmy Rollins
Yesterday, we took a look at how Ryan Howard's contract extension might affect the Phillies' chances of retaining Jayson Werth beyond this season. Following the 2011 campaign, the Phils will face a decision on a player even more crucial to their recent successes than Werth: shortstop Jimmy Rollins.
The Phillies have already exercised their $8.5MM 2011 option for the 2007 National League MVP, and they'll likely want to keep Rollins past next season. He is perhaps the face of the franchise, and has been one of baseball's most productive all-around shortstops since becoming an everyday player in 2001.
The good news for the Phils is that they'll have a couple of bloated contracts coming off the books after 2011. Raul Ibanez and Brad Lidge are both owed $11.5MM in '11, but are probably unlikely to remain in Philadelphia beyond that, and certainly not at that price. However, as MLBTR's Howard Megdal pointed out yesterday, the Phillies already have plenty of other commitments in 2012 and beyond.
MLB.com's Todd Zolecki notes that Rollins has said in the past that he could picture himself finishing his career for a Bay Area club, near where he grew up. These days, the 31-year-old seems more open to staying put in Philadelphia: "We weren't good then. We're good now. As long as we're good, I'm good."
GM Ruben Amaro Jr. insists that Howard's extension won't affect the team's ability to re-sign players like Werth and Rollins, though extension talks with Werth are at an impasse for now. If the Phillies are unable to bring Werth back in 2010, Rollins' chances of remaining with the club look better, since they'll be locked into one less long-term deal. If Rollins does receive a multi-year, big-money extension though, the Phillies' financial flexibility will take yet another hit. Even with a payroll that exceeds $140MM, you have to wonder how much money they can afford to tie up long-term in aging players.
Heyman On Howard, Pujols, Adrian, Werth
The latest hot stove thoughts from SI's Jon Heyman…
- The people Heyman talked to feel that with Ryan Howard averaging $25MM a year starting in 2012, a contract discussion for Albert Pujols has to start at $30MM a year.
- Heyman says that "the belief among skeptics of the deal that [the Howard extension] was an obvious overpay isn't reflected one bit among baseball people." Of course, there are hundreds of baseball people, and the ones I've spoken to agree with the skeptics.
- Adrian Gonzalez's agent John Boggs said, "We're just kind of innocent bystanders," noting that the Padres have not made contact about an extension.
- Jayson Werth's agent Jeff Borris believes his client will be "the premier free agent outfielder" if he doesn't sign an extension. Looking at the list, only Carl Crawford would have an argument. Heyman says there's a "belief around baseball" that Werth will be seeking $100MM. Previously we've heard suggestions of the four-year, $66MM Jason Bay range.
- Heyman says Stephen Strasburg has a contract clause that "permits 100 innings at the major-league level this year." I haven't heard of any clauses of that nature before, but Strasburg and Scott Boras is a powerful pairing.
2011 Contract Issues: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies face two contractual options after the season:
- Lefty reliever J.C. Romero has a $4.5MM club option with a $250K buyout. The 33-year-old had flexor tendon surgery in October of last year, returning to a big league mound last Friday.
- Backup infielder Juan Castro has a $750K club option with a $50K buyout.
Four more players will be eligible for free agency: Jamie Moyer, Jayson Werth, Chad Durbin, and Jose Contreras. Talks with Werth are currently at an impasse. These four account for $18.625MM in 2010 salaries. If all six players leave, and we include buyouts that will be paid this year to Adam Eaton, Pedro Feliz, and Geoff Jenkins, the Phillies have about $26MM coming off the books.
Raises to players under contract should swallow about $21MM of that freed up money. Roy Halladay has the biggest increase, as his salary rises $4.25MM and the Blue Jays won't be sending $6MM again. Cole Hamels and Shane Victorino also see increases north of $2MM. Arbitration cases are light – Kyle Kendrick and Ben Francisco are first-timers, while Greg Dobbs would fit into the third-time class.
It appears that holding payroll steady and allowing all free agents to leave would give the Phillies a few million bucks to spend. They won't have the flexibility to add top or mid-tier players in the 2010-11 offseason unless they raise payroll or dump a contract via trade.
Odds & Ends: Rosario, Red Sox, Bernazard, Storen
Links for Tuesday….
- Baseball America's Ben Badler tweets that the Red Sox have signed speedy 17-year-old outfielder Roberto Rosario from the upstart Dominican Prospect League for $150K.
- The Red Sox might be in a terrific position to take advantage of the Ryan Howard contract fallout, says Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal.
- FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal interviewed former Mets' executive Tony Bernazard, who was fired last year. It's a very interested read, give it a look.
- MASNSports.com's Ben Goessling explores the financial savings the Nationals could enjoy if they delay calling up Drew Storen.
- Meanwhile, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro says the Marlins aren't going rush Mike Stanton to the big leagues.
- Dusty Baker denied a report that the Reds turned down extension talks, tweets John Fay of The Cincinnati Enquirer.
- Didn't get enough Ryan Howard extension reactions yesterday? Not to worry, there are plenty more pundits weighing in today. ESPN.com's Buster Olney says that many baseball people now feel that Howard, "a star in his prime," is overpriced, and the Phillies might regret the contract long before it expires. ESPN.com's Keith Law agrees, writing that he laughed when he heard the news. Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer says the contract may be an overpay but it represents "the cost of doing business," and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com says the Phils had to either pony up for Howard or risk letting him walk after 2011.
- Meanwhile, USA Today's Bob Nightengale suggests Howard's deal could be the beginning of a slew of mammoth contracts for baseball's sluggers.
- John Tomase of the Boston Herald notes that modifications in Fangraphs' UZR model make Jason Bay's defense look a whole lot better. Fangraphs' latest UZR update included adjustments for specific ballparks like Fenway, and improved Bay's 2009 UZR from -13.8 to +1.9. As Tomase indicates, Bay and his agent probably would've liked that change made before Bay signed his four-year deal this winter.
- Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the Giants have discussed promoting Buster Posey earlier than June.
- In his MLB.com blog, MSNBC's Keith Olbermann speculates on who would be next in line for each managerial job in both the National League and American League.
- Also at MLB.com, Peter Gammons has a column up that addresses a few intriguing what-if questions, including what could have happened if the Red Sox had acquired either Alex Rodriguez or Mark Teixeira.