Odds & Ends: Rosario, Red Sox, Bernazard, Storen
Links for Tuesday….
- Baseball America's Ben Badler tweets that the Red Sox have signed speedy 17-year-old outfielder Roberto Rosario from the upstart Dominican Prospect League for $150K.
- The Red Sox might be in a terrific position to take advantage of the Ryan Howard contract fallout, says Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal.
- FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal interviewed former Mets' executive Tony Bernazard, who was fired last year. It's a very interested read, give it a look.
- MASNSports.com's Ben Goessling explores the financial savings the Nationals could enjoy if they delay calling up Drew Storen.
- Meanwhile, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro says the Marlins aren't going rush Mike Stanton to the big leagues.
- Dusty Baker denied a report that the Reds turned down extension talks, tweets John Fay of The Cincinnati Enquirer.
- Didn't get enough Ryan Howard extension reactions yesterday? Not to worry, there are plenty more pundits weighing in today. ESPN.com's Buster Olney says that many baseball people now feel that Howard, "a star in his prime," is overpriced, and the Phillies might regret the contract long before it expires. ESPN.com's Keith Law agrees, writing that he laughed when he heard the news. Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer says the contract may be an overpay but it represents "the cost of doing business," and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com says the Phils had to either pony up for Howard or risk letting him walk after 2011.
- Meanwhile, USA Today's Bob Nightengale suggests Howard's deal could be the beginning of a slew of mammoth contracts for baseball's sluggers.
- John Tomase of the Boston Herald notes that modifications in Fangraphs' UZR model make Jason Bay's defense look a whole lot better. Fangraphs' latest UZR update included adjustments for specific ballparks like Fenway, and improved Bay's 2009 UZR from -13.8 to +1.9. As Tomase indicates, Bay and his agent probably would've liked that change made before Bay signed his four-year deal this winter.
- Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the Giants have discussed promoting Buster Posey earlier than June.
- In his MLB.com blog, MSNBC's Keith Olbermann speculates on who would be next in line for each managerial job in both the National League and American League.
- Also at MLB.com, Peter Gammons has a column up that addresses a few intriguing what-if questions, including what could have happened if the Red Sox had acquired either Alex Rodriguez or Mark Teixeira.
Phillies’ Talks With Werth At An Impasse
In the wake of Ryan Howard's megadeal, talks between the Phillies and rightfielder Jayson Werth are at an impasse, reports CSNPhilly.com's Jim Salisbury.
“I’ve had dialogue with [GM] Ruben [Amaro Jr.] since the winter meetings,” said Jeff Borris, Werth's agent. “I don’t want to rule out the possibility of his re-signing with the Phillies, but it would appear right now we’re at an impasse.”
Werth, 31 next month, is being paid $7MM this season as part of the two year, $10MM contract he signed last January, and will be a free agent after the season. He's finally started to live up to the potential that landed him on Baseball America's top 100 prospects list four times from 1999-2003, hitting .278/.378/.499 since joining Philadelphia in 2007.
MLBTR's Luke Adams looked at Werth's situation a little more in-depth earlier today.
The Latest On The Unsigned Starting Pitchers
According to talent evaluators that spoke to ESPN.com's Buster Olney recently, this year's starting pitching trade market may not take shape for another couple months. For pitching-desperate teams that don't want to take on a salary dump, that means the few remaining arms on the free agent market might be their best bet. Let's take a look at the latest news on some of the more notable pitchers still available….
- Jarrod Washburn: The Diamondbacks were rumored to have a passing interest in Washburn, but not at his asking price. The last we heard from agent Scott Boras was that as many as five teams were after the 35-year-old, though that was nearly three weeks ago. It seems that Boras and Washburn still have a vastly different perception of the left-hander's worth than most GMs do. Could the Dodgers be a possibility? According to Sirius XM Radio's Jim Bowden (via Twitter), GM Ned Colletti is still looking for a pitcher at the right price.
- Pedro Martinez: It's looking increasingly likely that Pedro will once again only pitch a half-season. The Mets are considered a potential landing spot for the righty, but the Phillies might be the favorites. Martinez had a successful stint with in Philadelphia in 2009, and the two sides have been keeping in touch this year. The Dodgers could be in the mix too, though the 38-year-old still harbors bad feelings toward the organization, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
- Braden Looper: Although the 35-year-old righty threw for the Cubs recently, they're not expected to sign him. Looper is probably most valuable as an innings-eater starter, while the Cubs are in need of a setup man. There hasn't been a lot of concrete news about Looper lately, but the Rockies could potentially be a fit. Tracy Ringolsby of Inside the Rockies opined three weeks ago that Looper-to-Colorado would be a logical match, and if both Jorge de la Rosa and Jason Hammel head to the disabled list, the Rockies would be missing two crucial starters.
- John Smoltz: He may be a TBS analyst for now, but Smoltz still hasn't ruled out pitching this season. The Phillies were rumored to be interested, though you'd have to think it'd be a case of either Martinez or Smoltz for Philadelphia, rather than both. Like Pedro, the 42-year-old is more likely to pitch for a National League club if he returns, so once again the Dodgers make sense as a potential suitor.
For a full rundown of all the arms still available, check out our list of remaining 2010 free agents.
Will Phillies Be Able To Retain Werth?
The long-term effect of Ryan Howard's new contract extension on the Phillies has been breathlessly debated over the last two days, but Howard's deal also raises questions about Philadelphia's short-term future. Outfielder Jayson Werth is set to hit free agency following this season, and it's unclear if the Phillies will be able to afford him.
David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News points out that Howard's extension, which starts in 2012, doesn't affect the team's bottom line for next year, but it could impact the Phillies' ability to commit long-term to Werth. Assuming he enjoys a strong 2010 campaign, Werth may be in position to command a deal similar to the four-year, $66M contract Jason Bay signed with the Mets over the winter, which would put the Phillies on the hook beyond 2011.
According to MLB.com's Todd Zolecki, the Phillies' organization believes they'll be able to re-sign Werth, a stance reiterated when GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said Howard's contract wouldn't affect their chances of retaining the 30-year-old. Werth's agent, Jeff Borris, echoed Amaro's sentiment, though he added that it wouldn't be appropriate to say whether he was optimistic about a Werth extension.
The Phillies won't have a ton of money to work with next year if, as Murphy suggests, they hope to keep their payroll around $140MM. They already have about $130MM committed to returning players, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post says the club has misspent a lot of the money that could have gone to Werth. Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer thinks that the Phils' best move would be to re-sign Werth and find a way to replace Raul Ibanez with prospect Domonic Brown. Considering Ibanez will be owed $11.5MM and will turn 39 next year, moving him may be easier said than done.
While the financial issues involved in re-signing Werth are challenging enough, the Phillies also have to consider the problems facing their offense if he walks. Replacing Werth with Brown would give the team yet another left-handed bat in a lineup that already includes Howard, Ibanez, and Chase Utley.
Zolecki writes that extension discussions with Werth seem to have been put on hold while the Phillies finalized the Howard deal. Now the team will have to hope that Howard's extension, which will likely hamper their negotiating flexibility with Werth, won't entirely kill their chances of retaining the star outfielder.
Phillies 2012: A Look Ahead
With the signing of Ryan Howard to a five-year, $125MM deal, the scope of what the Phillies can do heading into the 2012 season has come into greater focus. And at the risk of hyperbole, the key takeaway may be: when the Mayans said the world would end in 2012, were they specifically talking about the Phils?
Let's take a look at what Philadelphia will be spending money on as the 2012 season dawns. Roy Halladay is signed for $20MM. Howard, too, is signed for $20MM. Chase Utley is signed for $15.3MM. Joe Blanton is signed for $10.5MM, Shane Victorino for $9.5MM, Placido Polanco for $6.4MM, Carlos Ruiz for $3.7MM, and almost certainly, Brad Lidge will be given a $1.5MM buyout.
That's $87MM going to seven players to play and one player to not play. And for their money, the Phillies will receive:
- The age-32 season of a first baseman whose numbers overall have been in decline through age 30, and whose difficulties against lefties make him a good deal less valuable against situational relievers late in games (Howard).
- The age-35 season of a pitcher who is dominant now, but will be 35 years old (Halladay).
- The age-33 season of a second baseman, a position that is notoriously tough on aging players (Utley).
- The age-31 season of a pitcher with a career 4.21 ERA (Blanton).
- The age-31 season of a center fielder whose value is largely tied to his legs (Victorino).
- The age-36 season of a third baseman whose value is largely tied to his defense (Polanco).
- The age-33 season of a catcher whose career OPS is .720 (Ruiz).
Now obviously, the above list merely points out the red flags of the players under contract. Perhaps all seven of them will perform in 2012 as they did in 2009.
The problem is that even if they do, the Phillies will need to make a relatively small amount of money go a long way.
Consider that the team traded Cliff Lee this past offseason, passing up a chance to have a 1-2 punch in the rotation of Halladay and Lee over concerns that Lee would cost C.C. Sabathia-type money ($23MM annually). It seems fair to assume that the money that would have gone to Lee went to Howard instead. In other words, the $140MM threshold the Phillies find themselves at right now isn't far from where they expect to be in 2012. Certainly, they had no intention of being at $160MM, which is where Lee plus Howard would have landed them.
But we want to be fair to the Phillies, so let's split the difference, and plan for a $150MM 2012 payroll. With $87MM gone, Philadelphia has $63MM left over for: three starting pitchers, six or seven relievers, a shortstop, a left fielder, a right fielder, and four or five bench players.
In other words, even without any decline from any of the seven players under contract that year, the Phillies are going to need a lot of their prospects step up. And if they decide to sign current right fielder Jayson Werth and shortstop Jimmy Rollins– both likely to cost $10MM or more annually and both entering their age-33 seasons in 2012- the entire remaining team will have to be low-cost options fresh from the farm system to make the numbers work.
And we haven't even discussed what Cole Hamels, signed for $9.5MM in 2011, is likely to get in 2012 in what will be his final year of arbitration.
With so many holes to fill, it is hard to believe that Philadelphia decided to put so much of its 2012 payroll into Ryan Howard. This analysis doesn't even get into the problems for the team when Howard pulls down a cool $25MM annually from 2014-2016 for his age 34-36 seasons.
For a team that has managed to position itself as the clear favorite in the 2010 National League, such success may be fleeting.
What Does The Howard Extension Mean For Other Players?
The early verdict on Ryan Howard's five-year, $125MM contract extension isn't pretty from the point of view of several pundits, but the deal has to be great news for other slugging first basemen who may soon be hitting the free agent market. Here are some opinions on how Howard's contract will impact other major players…
- Fanhouse's Tom Krasovic spoke to John Boggs, who represents Adrian Gonzalez. Boggs feels that "[Howard's deal] bodes well for Adrian Gonzalez, because it validates the fact that he's worth that kind of money or more." Boggs noted that there have been no talks of an extension with the Padres, who have a $5.5MM club option on Gonzalez for the 2011 season that they're sure to exercise. Given Gonzalez's youth (he will be 29 when he hits free agency), great away splits (his lifetime line of .264/.365/.443 at PETCO Park is well below his .282/.364/.510 career line) and steadily improving glove (he has posted positive UZR/150 numbers over the last two years), he looks to be a strong bet to get a contract larger than Howard's from a team other than San Diego.
- Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch looks at Howard's place in largest-contract history, and notes that Albert Pujols "figures to zoom by" the Phillies' slugger. Indeed, if the Cardinals had signed Pujols to a five-year, $125MM extension, they would be doing jumping jacks in St. Louis right now. The Cardinals have a no-brainer $16MM option on Pujols for 2011, and no matter if Pujols re-signs in St. Louis or goes elsewhere, he'll be looking at a contract with an average annual value of over $30MM. Braves manager Bobby Cox told Goold Pujols is worth $50MM a year in light of Howard's deal.
- Prince Fielder is eliglble for arbitration this winter and can also be a free agent after the 2011 season. We've already heard whispers about the size of the deal that Fielder is looking for, and he will be just 27 when he hits the free agent market. Fielder, however, has to deal with question marks about his long-term fitness and his fielding ability (a -6.2 career UZR/150), but agent Scott Boras will no doubt have his best counter-argument prepared to rebut those concerns. With Boras at the negotiating table, it's very unlikely the Brewers will get a hometown discount.
- Pablo Sandoval is under San Francisco's control through 2014, but Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News points out that Howard's extension is a "great lesson" to Sandoval that getting in better shape can lead to bigger money in the future.
Ryan Howard Extension Reactions
The Phillies signed slugger Ryan Howard to a five-year, $125MM extension today. The contract begins with the 2012 season and includes a 2017 option and a limited no-trade clause. At $25MM per year, Howard's deal ranks third in baseball history for average annual value. Unsurprisingly, the megadeal has not been well-received by analysts…
- ESPN's Rob Neyer considers the contract "a testament to old-school ignorance" and "a big bowl of wrong."
- Neyer's colleague Keith Law says the deal is "an overpay in both years and dollars."
- FanGraphs' Matthew Carruth says we should "say hello to baseball's newest worst contract." Carruth's colleague Dave Cameron agrees, and tweets that Howard's salary will serve as a full no-trade clause.
- Yahoo's Kevin Kaduk believes the Phillies would've been better off waiting. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports agrees, but in a video piece attempts to explain where the Phillies were coming from.
- SI's Jon Heyman tweets a diferent point of view, saying the deal represents a "good job by the Phillies" and is "just about right" for Howard.
Ryan Howard Signs Five-Year Extension
Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard signed a five-year, $125MM extension, according to CSN's Jim Salisbury. The deal includes a $23MM option for 2017 with a $10MM buyout. Howard is currently under contract through 2011, so the extension runs from 2012 through 2016. AOL FanHouse's Ed Price tweets the yearly salaries, noting that there is a limited no-trade clause. Hot stove junkies won't be seeing Howard join Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Adrian Gonzalez in the 2012 free agent class.
Howard is in his age 30 season, so the contract begins with his age 32 season. The length makes this an unnecessary risk, and at $25MM a year the Phillies didn't get a discount for taking the gamble and locking him up two years before free agency. Tip of the cap to agent Casey Close, who negotiated the deal.
Back in '08 Howard set a first-time arbitration record with a $10MM salary. A year later he signed a three-year, $54MM extension to buy out his remaining arbitration years. The Phillies clearly like to lock up their guys.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Garza, Pierzynski, Padres
Eleven years ago today, Fernando Tatis became the first and only player in baseball history to hit two grand slams in one inning. Amazingly, both came off Chan Ho Park, who allowed 11 runs while recording eight outs. Tatis went on to hit .298/.404/.553 with 34 homeruns for the Cardinals that season, easily the best of the big league career.
Here are a handful of links from around the blogosphere…
- Maddon's Mission wonders if the Rays' handling of Matt Garza tells us about their plans for him in the future.
- The Pale Hose Pariah concludes that A.J. Pierzynski is worth a grade-B position player prospect for a couple of grade-C pitching prospects in a trade.
- Pittsburgh Lumber Co. notes that Lastings Milledge has shown improved on-field maturity since joining the Pirates.
- The Friarhood says the Padres recent winning streak puts any trade talks on hold.
- And Counting makes the case for Carlos Zambrano and Alfonso Soriano being underpaid.
- Capitol Avenue Club visualizes the Braves' proverbial five-year plan.
- Around The Basepath thinks an worldwide draft is a great idea.
- Crashburn Alley takes stock of the Phillies' roster.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Cafardo’s Latest: Downs, Cruz, Dye, Sheffield
In his newest piece for the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo discusses Manny Ramirez's Hall of Fame chances, concluding that the slugger's positive test for a banned substance last season may keep him out of Cooperstown. Here are a few other topics that Cafardo's column explores:
- The Phillies would love to add a left-hander to their bullpen, particularly while J.C. Romero remains on the shelf. They're looking at Scott Downs, but given the Blue Jays' solid start, the team may hang on to him for the time being. When the Jays are ready to sell, Downs should provide a decent return.
- Juan Cruz is another reliever on the trade market, albeit a less impressive one. He'll earn $3.75MM this year for the Royals, who may have to eat most of that salary to pull off a deal.
- Jermaine Dye and Gary Sheffield should sign somewhere soon. When asked his thoughts on Orlando Hudson's insinuation that racism factored into Dye's and Sheffield's unemployment, Sheffield said he appreciated Hudson's concern, but "I'm not going to comment."
- Cafardo names Jerry Manuel and Dave Trembley as two managers who could be on the hot seat and speculates about who would be next in line to replace the skippers. Cafardo points out that there are plenty of ex-managers available who have history with Orioles president Andy MacPhail, while for the Mets, Bob Melvin might be "the logical successor."