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Pirates To Exercise Chris Archer’s 2020 Option

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The Pirates will pick up right-hander Chris Archer’s $9MM club option for the 2020 season, Nubyjas Wilborn of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tweets. Pittsburgh could have paid Archer a $1.75MM buyout but will now have him locked in for the upcoming season. His contract also contains an $11MM option (with a $250K buyout) for the 2021 campaign.

Archer, 31, simply hasn’t panned out as hoped in Pittsburgh. The Buccos shipped prospects Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz to Tampa Bay in order to acquire three and a half cost-controlled seasons of Archer in what now looks like one of the more regrettable deals in recent memory. Both Glasnow and Meadows have flourished with the Rays, while Archer has given the Pirates a combined 172 innings of 4.92 ERA ball in his season and a half wearing black and yellow.

Archer was long seen as a pitcher with some yet-untapped upside, and the friendly nature of his contract surely made him all the more appealing for recently fired general manager Neal Huntington and a Pirates front office that is regularly working under some of the game’s tightest payroll restrictions. Whether the Bucs would’ve been so motivated to acquire Archer with more financial support from ownership can’t be known — just as it’s impossible to tell whether Glasnow and/or Meadows would’ve broken out to the same extent in Pittsburgh as they did in St. Petersburg. The bottom-line result, however, is a trade that has paid major dividends for the Tampa Bay organization but not for Pittsburgh. The ill-fated swap surely contributed to owner Bob Nutting’s recent organizational shakeup, which saw Huntington dismissed and assistant GM Kevan Graves tabbed as interim general manager.

The Pirates initially pushed Archer to dust off a two-seam fastball that he’d shelved years ago with the Rays, and the results weren’t pretty. The right-hander eventually scrapped that pitch over the summer and returned to a four-seam-heavy approach with his heater, though the results weren’t exactly encouraging. Archer pitched to a 4.65 ERA in 12 starts (60 innings) after ditching that pitch, although his strikeout rate (31.4 percent) and swinging-strike rate (13.6 percent) upon changing his pitch selection were markedly better than they were with the two-seamer. A shoulder injury, however, halted Archer’s season in late August.

Given his average velocity in that time (94.4 mph) and those encouraging swinging-strike trends, Archer could yet appeal to clubs who hope to coax better results out of the right-hander. Moving him now would clearly be selling low and would net a much lesser return than what the Pirates initially surrendered, but trade options for contenders seeking rotation help this winter are limited. If the Bucs opt to hold onto him in hopes of building some value in the season’s first half, Archer would likely emerge as a trade candidate next summer, so long as he proves healthy.

Pirates Notes: GM And Manager Search

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The Pirates found themselves in an awkward position when the organization fired general manager Neal Huntington, who had already begun his search for the team’s next manager after Clint Hurdle was fired on the last day of the season. The staggered firings halted the managerial search while introducing the possibility that the next GM would want to take the search in a new direction.

Since a number of candidates have already interviewed to be Hurdle’s replacement, the team won’t necessarily be starting over once a new GM is hired, but the new head of baseball ops will seemingly be somewhat limited in his or her capacity to drive the hiring process. With all that said, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette suggests that of the group that has already interviewed, Derek Shelton, Mark Kotsay, and Jeff Banister had emerged as the favorites, though it’s hard to tab anyone a real frontrunner at this point without a GM steering the ship.

Nine names have been linked to the Pirates’ search thus far, though beyond the organization’s change of direction, at least some of these candidates could already be out of consideration.  Astros bench coach Joe Espada is reportedly one of the finalists to be the Giants’ next skipper, while the Athletics have already announced that bench coach Ryan Christenson and quality control coach Kotsay will be back on next season’s staff.  While that announcement wouldn’t preclude Christenson or Kotsay from a future Pirates hiring, it was noted that Kotsay was no longer a candidate for the Giants’ job.

Interviews with GM candidates will begin this week, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link), and we should soon start to hear concrete details about names under consideration.  The likes of former Red Sox and Orioles GM Dan Duquette, Brewers assistant GM Matt Arnold, Blue Jays senior VP Tony LaCava, Yankees scout Marc DelPiano have already been mentioned as speculative candidates.

Angels Acquire Parker Markel

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The Angels announced that right-hander Parker Markel has been acquired from the Pirates in exchange for cash considerations.

The 29-year-old Markel will change teams for the second time in 2019, after first going from the Mariners to the Pirates on a waiver claim back in July.  It made for a particularly busy first Major League season for Markel, who posted a 7.77 ERA over 22 combined innings for Seattle and Pittsburgh in his first taste of the Show.

It marked the culmination of a long road to the majors for Markel, who was originally a 39th-round draft pick for the Rays in 2010.  His ten-year pro career has included brief stints in independent ball and South Korea’s KBO League, as well as time away from the sport due to anxiety issues.  Through it all, Markel has managed some solid minor league stats, with a 3.81 ERA, 2.23 K/BB rate, and 8.0 K/9 over 508 innings, pitching almost exclusively as a reliever since 2014.

He’ll now join an Angels team that is looking for pitching depth.  While the Halos have a more glaring need in the rotation than in the bullpen, Markel and his 95.6 mph average fastball velocity could certainly become part of the conversation as the Angels consider their relief options come Spring Training.

Pirates Claim Sam Howard

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The Pirates have claimed left-handed reliever Sam Howard off waivers from the Rockies, per an announcement from Colorado. Howard, 26, had spent his whole career with the Rockies after they selected him in the third round in 2014.

A slider specialist, Howard made his MLB debut in 2018 but got his first significant big league action in 2019. He tossed 19 innings in 20 relief appearances with a strong 25.3% strikeout rate, but problems with walks and home runs contributed to a 6.63 ERA. Howard showed better in 42 relief appearances in Triple-A Albuquerque, working out of the bullpen full-time for the first time in his minor-league career.

Howard comes with another option season, so he’ll give the club a flexible lefty relief piece with swing-and-miss stuff so long as he sticks on the 40-man roster throughout the winter.

Latest On Pirates’ Trajectory, GM Search

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Pirates owner Bob Nutting and new team president Travis Williams met with the media this week to discuss the organization’s direction. The team has already undergone its fair share of tumult this offseason, having fired manager Clint Hurdle and, a month later, cutting ties with general manager Neal Huntington.

Nutting and Williams were noncommittal on where the organization goes from here. Asked about the possibility of embarking on a large-scale rebuild, Nutting told reporters (including Adam Berry of MLB.com) “I think that’s a discussion with the new general manager as we chart that path forward. It is challenging to have continued success and retool at the same time as you’re focused on the field. Given where we are, with some of the young talent in the organization, we’re not in a traditional point in time to blow it up. But I do think we need to have every option on the table. There’s no question we need to have more talent throughout the organization.” That’s hardly a definitive declaration of an oncoming rebuild, but it’s interesting to hear the club reevaluating its options after reportedly not planning to shop one of its most valuable trade pieces, Starling Marté, just last week.

As Nutting indicated, the organization’s outlook will be up to whomever he and Williams tab as GM. The team president indicated that he plans to be relatively hands-off with regards off to baseball operations, as Berry recaps. Williams said his role in the organization is to surround himself with quality baseball minds, while limiting himself to “oversight and some checks and balances.” Kevan Graves has taken over as GM on an interim basis, and while Berry notes that some in the industry consider Graves to be a potential GM someday, there’s no indication the organization plans to turn things over to him permanently just yet.

Who is in consideration to replace Huntington? That’s still largely up in the air, of course, given how recently the club moved on from their longtime GM, who was involved in the hiring process for manager up until his own dismissal. Myriad names have trickled out, with Berry (in a separate piece) and Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic identifying some early candidates. Interestingly, both name Blue Jays senior VP of player personnel Tony LaCava and Brewers assistant GM Matt Arnold as options, echoing earlier reports.

Meanwhile, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (via Twitter) adds former Orioles GM Dan Duquette to the list of people whom the organization has looked into. Duquette shepherded Baltimore between 2011 and 2018, overseeing one of the most successful clubs of the first half of the decade before the organization hit the skids in 2017. While there, he worked with former Pirates senior director of player development Brian Graham, whose contract with the Orioles expires this week. Graham tells Biertempfel he’d be interested in returning to Pittsburgh in some capacity, perhaps even as GM. While the front office has completely been reshaped since Graham’s time in the Steel City, Nutting remains as owner and surely has final say on all hiring decisions.

The organization clearly remains very much in flux, with little certainty likely to emerge until they settle on a new baseball ops leader. Whomever they choose, he or she will their work cut out for them trying to regroup after a dismal 69-93 season, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored in his Pirates offseason outlook.

Central Notes: Pirates, Royals, Indians

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Let’s check in on a few teams from the majors’ Central divisions…

  • A month after their season ended, the Pirates made the surprising decision to fire general manager Neal Huntington on Monday. There are already at least a few potential replacements for Huntington, per the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey, who names Blue Jays senior vice president, player personnel Tony LaCava, Yankees scout Marc DelPiano and Brewers assistant GM Matt Arnold as names who could be in the running. Whether the Pirates hire a member of that group or someone else, that person will be taking over a small-market club that has come under fire for its lack of spending. Owner Bob Nutting addressed the criticism Monday, telling Bill Brink of the Post-Gazette and others, “The idea that we are hoarding cash as a team is simply not accurate, and we will find a more compelling and complete way to make sure that that is an issue that simply is not on the table.” Newly named team president Travis Williams stated the Pirates hope to “model ourselves after” clubs in similar markets that have been able to consistently succeed despite financial disadvantages.
  • The Royals “will be as aggressive as payroll will allow” when it comes to addressing their bullpen this offseason, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com writes. Left-hander Jake Diekman, whom the Royals traded to the Athletics in July, could be one target for Kansas City, per Flanagan. Diekman enjoyed his time in KC, which is close to his native Nebraska, and will wind up back on the free-agent market if the A’s go the expected route of buying out his $5.75MM mutual option for $500K. Diekman’s control totally failed him in Oakland this season, but the hard-throwing 32-year-old was at least a legitimate source of strikeouts as a member of the Royals, with whom he posted a 4.75 ERA with 13.6 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9 across 41 2/3 innings.
  • The Indians have promoted Brian Sweeney to bullpen coach, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com. He’ll will take over for Scott Atchison, whom manager Terry Francona dismissed earlier this month. The 45-year-old Sweeney’s a former professional right-hander who will enter his third season as a member of Cleveland’s coaching staff in 2020.

Pirates Fire General Manager Neal Huntington

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9:18am: The Pirates have announced Huntington’s dismissal.

“I greatly appreciate Neal’s dedication to the Pirates organization and our city over the past 12 seasons,” owner Bob Nutting said in a press release. “His time with the Pirates should always be remembered for ending a long stretch of futility and bringing Postseason baseball back to Pittsburgh.”

The Pirates “will pause” their search for a new manager while seeking out a new GM, per Nutting. Assistant general manager Kevan Graves will serve as interim GM while the club looks for a replacement for Huntington.

Mackey further tweets that the decision to move on from Huntington was driven by Nutting (as opposed to incoming president Travis Williams). Nutting informed Huntington of the decision yesterday.

8:15am: The Pirates have already dismissed their manager and two of their coaches in addition to parting ways with team president Frank Coonelly, but they’re not done with changes yet. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Pittsburgh will also announce the dismissal of general manager Neal Huntington later today (Twitter link).

Huntington, 50, is one of the sport’s longest-tenured executives, having been hired at the conclusion of the 2007 season. His ousting represents perhaps the final step in a total overhaul of the organization that began when manager Clint Hurdle was fired on the final day of the season. Like Hurdle, Huntington had two years remaining on his contract.

Neal Huntington | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The parallels between Hurdle’s firing and today’s firing of Huntington don’t stop with the pair’s contractual status, however. Both dismissals were preceded by public assertions to the contrary; Hurdle told The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel that he’d received assurance of his 2020 return just days before being let go, and Huntington is now out the door a month later despite a clear vote of confidence from owner Bob Nutting.

“While we felt it was time to make a change at the managerial level, I strongly believe that Neal Huntington and the leadership team that he has assembled are the right people to continue to lead our baseball operations department,” Nutting said in a press release announcing the decision to move on from Hurdle. The extent to which Huntington’s departure is tied to incoming president Travis Williams isn’t clear, but the move is nevertheless a glaring contradiction to Nutting’s end-of-season assessment of his front office.

That the move comes with the organization’s managerial search now well underway is all the more confusing; one would imagine that an incoming GM would want say over who’s writing out the lineup card on a daily basis, but unless the plan is to put that search on hold, the Pirates are much further along in that process than in the process of naming a new GM. And, presumably, Huntington has been involved in all of the interviews conducted to this point.

Huntington took over the Pirates at a time when Jason Bay, Freddy Sanchez and Adam LaRoche were among the club’s most notable names and ushered in a new era at PNC Park, turning over the roster and developing stars such as Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gerrit Cole. But despite qualifying for three consecutive postseasons (2013-15), Huntington and his staff never saw the club win an NL Central title or advance beyond the National League Division series. It’s now been four full seasons since the Pirates’ last playoff berth, and the 2019 season was a particularly disheartening year. Pittsburgh finished with a 69-93 record, falling to last place in the division.

There’s been no shortage of criticism over recent moves made by the Pirates, with the trade that brought right-hander Chris Archer to Pittsburgh among the more widely panned deals in recent memory. Huntington agreed to part with longtime top prospects Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow in addition to highly regarded pitching prospect Shane Baz. The move was designed to bring an affordable, high-end starter with three-and-a-half seasons of club control to Pittsburgh, but Archer has struggled in the Steel City while Glasnow and Meadows now look like foundational pieces for the Tampa Bay organization.

Of course, the very fact that Archer is so affordable could very well be what prompted him to hold such appeal to Huntington and his staff in the first place. Pirates ownership has only thrice green-lighted a payroll north of $90MM, constantly leaving the front office scrambling to find bargains and patch together rosters with rebound candidates and the leftovers of the free-agent market. Without the type of annual payroll constraints they face, perhaps Huntington & Co. wouldn’t have been so drawn to Archer in the first place. There’s no way to know for sure, however, and the end result still speaks loudest of all.

Other recent moves have been more of a mixed bag. The trade that sent McCutchen to San Francisco brought Rookie of the Year candidate Bryan Reynolds and reliever Kyle Crick to Pittsburgh. The trade of Cole to Houston in that same 2017-18 offseason netted six years of a useful rotation piece in Joe Musgrove, but the others in that swap (Colin Moran, Michael Feliz and Jason Martin) have yet to bring much value to the Pirates. As with the Archer trade, finances were a major consideration in both the McCutchen and Cole trades; it was clear at the time of the moves that neither would fit into the Pittsburgh budget any longer despite a lack of additional spending.

Pittsburgh’s reluctance to spend, in fact, was concerning enough to the union that the MLBPA brought their concerns to the Commissioner’s Office and requested an investigation of how the team allotted its funds from revenue sharing. The league responded with a statement that it had no such concerns regarding the Pirates organization.

Such payroll restrictions will persist for whoever is hired to run the club’s baseball operations outfit moving forward. Owner Bob Nutting has never indicated any plans to sell the team. The Pirates recently extended their television contract with AT&T SportsNet, but terms of the deal remain unclear. Their previous agreement was one of the least-lucrative contracts in the game, though, and whatever increases in annual rights fees are included in the new deal will be baked into the contract in the form of gradual increases. In other words, a payroll hike in the near future doesn’t seem likely.

To the contrary, it feels more likely that the Bucs will instead be looking to shed payroll this winter. As I noted in previewing the club’s offseason a few days ago, this seems like the ideal time to market Marte to other clubs, and it’s worth wondering whether the Pirates would look to deal Archer as well after a disappointing season and a half (and with an increase in his salary looming). Problematic setup man Keone Kela is also a candidate to be shipped out.

All of those roster decisions will be at the forefront of the offseason questions facing whoever takes over Huntington’s now-vacant chair at the PNC Park offices. For the time being, Nutting and Williams will be frantically trying to assemble a new front-office staff and field staff as they look to usher in a new era of Pirates baseball. That process will very likely linger into the offseason, although with the Pirates unlikely to play for any notable free agents anyhow, perhaps a late entry into the market won’t really be an issue.

2020 Managerial Search Tracker

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Eight teams were looking for new skippers in October, and loads of potential candidates have been either rumored or directly connected to these job openings. We’ll do our best to keep things straight in this post….

Angels

Hired

  • Joe Maddon: former Cubs/Rays manager, former Angels bench coach/interim manager

Also Interviewed

  • John Farrell: former Red Sox/Blue Jays manager
  • Buck Showalter: former Orioles, Yankees, Rangers and Diamondbacks manager
  • Johnny Washington: Padres hitting coach

Reportedly Received Consideration

  • Joe Espada: Astros bench coach
  • Joe Girardi: Hired by Phillies
  • Eric Chavez: Angels special assistant

Cubs

       Hired

  • David Ross: former Cubs/Red Sox catcher, current ESPN analyst

Also Interviewed

  • Joe Espada: Astros bench coach
  • Joe Girardi: Hired by Phillies
  • Gabe Kapler: former Phillies manager, former Dodgers director of player development
  • Mark Loretta: Cubs bench coach
  • Will Venable: Cubs first base coach

Giants

       Hired

  • Gabe Kapler: former Phillies manager, former Dodgers director of player development

Also Interviewed

  • Joe Espada: Astros bench coach
  • Gabe Kapler: former Phillies manager, former Dodgers director of player development
  • Pedro Grifol: Royals quality control and catching coach
  • Mark Kotsay: Athletics quality control coach, former Padres hitting coach & baseball operations special assistant
  • Hensley Meulens: Giants bench coach
  • Matt Quatraro: Rays bench coach, former minor-league manager
  • Will Venable: Cubs first base coach
  • Ron Wotus: Giants third base coach

Reportedly Received Consideration

  • Raul Ibanez: Dodgers special assistant
  • Mike Matheny: former Cardinals manager

Mets

Interviewing Twice

  • Carlos Beltran: Special assistant to Yankees GM, former MLB outfielder
  • Tim Bogar: Nationals first base coach
  • Eduardo Perez: ESPN analyst, former Astros bench coach, former Puerto Rican Winter League Manager of the Year
  • Derek Shelton: Twins bench coach, former Rays hitting coach
  • Luis Rojas: Mets quality control coach
  • Pat Murphy: Brewers bench coach

Interviewed Once

  • Joe Girardi: Hired by Phillies
  • Skip Schumaker: Padres first base coach, former Padres baseball ops/player development assistant, former MLB utilityman
  • Mike Bell: Diamondbacks director of player development

Reportedly Under Consideration

  • Buck Showalter: former Orioles/Yankees manager
  • Mike Matheny: former Cardinals manager

Padres

Hired

Also Interviewed

  • Ron Washington: Braves third base coach, former Rangers manager
  • Brad Ausmus: former Angels/Tigers manager
  • Rod Barajas: Padres interim manager, former bench coach
  • Bob Henley: Nationals third base coach
  • Mark Loretta: Cubs bench coach

Reportedly Received Consideration

  • Joe Maddon: Hired by Angels
  • Mike Matheny: Former Cardinals manager

Pirates — Search “paused” while team searches for new GM

Interviewing

  • Ryan Christenson: Athletics bench coach, former minor-league manager
  • Derek Shelton: Twins bench coach, former minor-league manager
  • Stubby Clapp: Cardinals first base coach, former minor-league manager
  • Matt Quatraro: Rays bench coach, former minor-league manager
  • George Lombard: Dodgers first base coach, former minor-league manager

Reportedly Under Consideration

  • Jeff Banister: Pirates special assistant; former Rangers manager, Pirates bench coach
  • Mike Bell: Diamondbacks director of player development
  • Mark Kotsay: Athletics quality control coach, former Padres hitting coach & baseball operations special assistant
  • Joe Espada: Astros bench coach

Phillies

Hired

Also Interviewed

  • Buck Showalter: former Orioles, Yankees, Rangers and Diamondbacks manager
  • Dusty Baker: Special advisor to Giants; former Nationals/Reds/Cubs manager

Royals

Interviewing

  • Vance Wilson: Royals bullpen coach

Reportedly Under Consideration

  • Pedro Grifol: Royals quality control and catching coach
  • Mike Matheny: Royals special advisor
  • Dale Sveum: Royals bench coach

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates had a Murphy’s Law season in 2019, finishing what they hoped would be a competitive campaign with a 69-93 record that landed them in the NL Central cellar. Thanks to their ever-present payroll issues, they’ll face several tough decisions this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Gregory Polanco, OF: $22MM through 2021 (including buyout of 2022 option; contract also contains 2023 option)
  • Felipe Vazquez, LHP: $13.5MM through 2021 (including buyout of 2022 options; contract also contains 2023 option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Starling Marte, CF: $11.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout (contract also includes 2021 option)
  • Chris Archer, RHP: $9MM club option with a $1.75MM buyout (contract also includes 2021 option)

Free Agents

Like more than one quarter of the teams in baseball, the Pirates’ offseason began with the search for a new manager. Clint Hurdle, just days after publicly stating that he’d been assured of his return in 2020, was fired with two years remaining on his contract. The Pirates, who haven’t been in the market for a new manager in a decade, have reportedly interviewed Twins bench coach Derek Shelton, Athletics bench coach Ryan Christensen and Cardinals first base coach Stubby Clapp — each of whom has managed in the minors but not the big leagues. Former Rangers manager Jeff Banister is reported to be under consideration, too, as are Athletics quality control coach Mark Kotsay, Diamondbacks director of player development Mike Bell and Astros bench coach Joe Espada.

A new team president will need to be brought into the fold as well following this week’s announcement that Frank Coonelly will depart after 13 seasons. That search won’t be as exhaustive, it seems, as the Bucs are reportedly set to name a replacement as soon as next Monday.

The departure of Hurdle came not only after another disappointing season in terms of wins and losses but on the heels of reported discord in the clubhouse. Kyle Crick injured his finger in a fistfight that broke out with closer Felipe Vazquez, but that was only the beginning of the team’s Vazquez troubles.

A bombshell report in September brought forth charges of statutory sexual assault of a minor against Vazquez. A criminal complaint released by Westmoreland County shortly thereafter revealed, even more abhorrently, that during conversations with the police, Vazquez admitted to prior sexual contact with the alleged victim — a minor. Precisely what will happen with the remaining $13.5MM he’s owed by the Pirates will depend on the course of criminal and immigration proceedings along with any ensuing league discipline. Whether or not the contract will be voided entirely isn’t known; what is clear is that Vazquez will not receive his salary while he’s not a member of the roster. Given what has been reported to this point, it’s difficult to imagine him pitching for the the Pirates again — or for any other MLB team.

The altercation between Crick and Vazquez wasn’t the only instance of a behind-the-scenes clubhouse problem in 2019, though. Setup man Keone Kela was suspended by the team after a reported altercation with bullpen coach Euclides Rojas. Kela had also previously butted heads with and been disciplined by the Rangers, who traded him to the Pirates in 2018. Still just 26 years old, Kela has struck out 30 percent of the hitters he has faced in the Majors and is clearly a high-end talent, but he’ll likely be on the trade block this winter. The Pirates, after all, also explored the possibility of moving him back in July. That series of off-field issues won’t do his trade value any favors, but Kela, who is entering his final season of club control, is an obvious change-of-scenery candidate.

As is typical with the low-budget Pirates, there will be more trade scenarios to explore, but the extent to which they’re motivated to make a deal is dependent on where ownership sets the payroll threshold. Pittsburgh opened 2019 with a meager $74.8MM on the books, and at present they’re projected to come in around $71.4MM (assuming no non-tenders and assuming the options of both Starling Marte and Chris Archer are exercised). Take away Vazquez’s $5.75MM salary but add in another $6-7MM to round out the roster with pre-arbitration players, and the Buccos are close to the payroll with which they opened last season after an 82-79 finish. Despite their dip in record, the Pirates did somehow manage to slightly outdraw their 2018 total of 1.464 million fans (1.491 million). However, they also still ranked 14th in 2019 National League attendance — ahead of only the Marlins.

Pittsburgh’s Opening Day payroll topped $90MM each season from 2015-17 before sliding to $86MM in 2018 and the aforementioned $74.8MM in 2019. Put another way, the Bucs can afford to increase payroll. Ownership’s willingness to do so in a season with diminished expectations of winning, however, is far from a given. So, if payroll is pared back further — or if a more long-term outlook is adopted after a 93-loss season — who could GM Neal Huntington look to move?

The Bucs reportedly aren’t shopping Marte, although even if they were, it wouldn’t behoove them to broadcast that intention. More importantly, they may not find a better time to move him. Marte still has two affordable years remaining on his contract at a time when it’s extremely difficult to see Pittsburgh contending in the NL Central and at a time when several hopeful contenders need center fielders. The Phillies, Braves, D-backs, Padres, Giants, White Sox and Rangers are all among the clubs who could realistically look for an impactful center fielder this winter. Philadelphia’s need is particularly glaring.

Despite a lack of certainty in the Pirates’ rotation — more on that later — it also strikes me as worth pondering whether the club will look to find a change of scenery for Archer as well. Selling low on a pitcher for whom they paid an exorbitant price in the first place would sting, but things haven’t panned out for Archer in Pittsburgh. The Pirates didn’t have success trying to push Archer back into throwing a two-seam fastball — a pitch he’d already abandoned once in his career — and they were unable to help him curb his home-run troubles even after kicking the two-seamer to the curb once again in mid-June.

However, after cutting bait on that lackluster sinker, Archer struck out a whopping 31.3 percent of the hitters he faced and induced swinging strikes at a 13.4 percent clip. Those are encouraging signs from a pitcher who also has above-average spin on his breaking ball, above-average velocity on his heater and two years and $20MM remaining on his contract. That’s an eminently affordable rate for most teams, but it’s perhaps more than the Pirates care to commit to a pitcher who now looks like a reclamation project after struggling to fit into Pittsburgh’s mold. Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows aren’t walking back through the door, but the Pirates could definitely still extract some value if Archer is shipped elsewhere. That the offseason trade market is light on intriguing pitchers only enhances Archer’s appeal.

The question for the Bucs would be what to target in these theoretical trade scenarios. Embarking on a full rebuild would mean simply prioritizing the best available young talent, but they haven’t indicated that they’ll be going down that road. In terms of immediate roster needs, the Pirates are largely set in the infield. Kevin Newman impressed at shortstop in his rookie season, Adam Frazier enjoyed a solid year and Josh Bell finally tapped into the power that made him such a touted prospect. Jacob Stallings had a terrific defensive year behind the plate but didn’t offer much offense. Fellow catcher Elias Diaz, who missed the beginning of the season due to a viral infection, had a lost year all around.

In the outfield, Bryan Reynolds — acquired in what was at the time an unpopular Andrew McCutchen trade — is going to garner Rookie of the Year consideration and looks like a potential long-term piece. Gregory Polanco’s first year back from shoulder surgery was a dud, but he’s signed for at least two more seasons and only a year removed from a solid 2018 showing.

The points of upgrade in the lineup seem clear: the Pirates could use help at third base, behind the plate and (if they trade Marte) at one outfield spot.

At the hot corner, Colin Moran has been serviceable but unspectacular when hitting against right-handed pitching and virtually unplayable against lefties in his career. He’s not a great defender, but Moran has yet to even reach arbitration eligibility, so he’ll be back as an option. The Pirates have top prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes, one of the game’s elite defensive prospects, looming in Triple-A. He could push for a big league roster spot by next summer, so a stopgap at third base or a platoon partner for Moran is all that’s really needed. That can be found in free agency (e.g. Logan Forsythe, Todd Frazier or Tim Beckham, assuming the latter is non-tendered).

In the outfield, the Pirates currently have Reynolds, Marte and Polanco, making them likelier to add depth pieces than a starting-caliber name — if they keep Marte. If he’s moved, the club could look to get a young outfielder back, but the free-agent market will also have ample corner options. Avisail Garcia and Kole Calhoun (assuming his option is bought out) could fit the bill, or the Pirates could simply re-sign Melky Cabrera, who was productive early in 2019 before his offense cratered later in the year.

Things are trickier behind the plate. Diaz looked like a potential option following a quietly productive 2018 campaign, but his illness-shortened season makes him more of a question mark. Stallings showed great defensive aptitude, but he’ll soon turn 30 and has just 282 MLB plate appearances under his belt. Catching help would be a logical area of focus in trades. Even if the Pirates hang onto their top chips, it should be addressed in free agency. Yasmani Grandal is going to be too expensive, but a second-tier option like Jason Castro, Travis d’Arnaud or Robinson Chirinos would likely fit into their price range.

The bigger questions for the Pirates come on the pitching staff. Jameson Taillon’s second career Tommy John surgery, paired with Archer’s struggles, was a massive blow to the Pirates’ 2020 hopes. Add in the fact that uber-prospect Mitch Keller was shelled in 48 MLB innings, and the rotation outlook is unexpectedly bleak. (To Keller’s credit, he was plagued by a ridiculous .475 average on balls in play and did rack up 65 strikeouts, so there’s cause for optimism moving forward.) The rest of Pittsburgh’s rotation includes team innings leader Joe Musgrove, who profiles as a mid-rotation arm, and two pitchers who posted ERAs north of 5.00 in 2019 (Trevor Williams and Steven Brault).

In the bullpen, things are similarly cloudy — particularly with Vazquez likely out of the picture and Kela standing out as a trade candidate. Richard Rodriguez and Michael Feliz turned in solid ERAs with more questionable secondary stats. The rest of the relief corps was a revolving door of shrug emojis. Pirates relievers ranked 23rd in the Majors in ERA, 22nd in FIP and 20th in xFIP as a collective unit in 2019, and that was with Vazquez and Kela combining for 89 2/3 innings. The incumbent group offers minimal hope for improvement.

Whether the Pirates move their most desirable assets now or reload and make another run in 2020, they’re going to need multiple arms added to the pitching staff, some catching help and some infield depth. If they keep Marte and Archer, they’ll likely be limited to low-cost fliers on rebound candidates, given that they’ll already be within $9MM of last year’s Opening Day payroll mark. If one or both of that pair is moved to another club, Pittsburgh could technically spend more aggressively, but the urgency to do so would be diminished, as dealing Marte and/or Archer would in many ways signal a step back.

Barring an unexpected payroll hike, the Pirates don’t look like major players in free agency (as usual). Contending in next year’s NL Central looks like a significant long shot, and the extent to which they believe that possible will have a direct impact on the future of players like Marte and Archer.

Pirates Outright Three Players

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The Pirates have outrighted a trio of players, per the International League transactions page. Catcher Steven Baron and infielders Corban Joseph and Jake Elmore were all dropped from the Pittsburgh 40-man roster.

It’s not at all surprising to see this group of names exiting the premises. They’re all reliable hands to have around, but not valuable enough to hold a roster spot through the offseason. Each will have the right to elect free agency, though certainly a return to the Pirates organization can’t be ruled out.

The 28-year-old Baron has enjoyed three cups of coffee in the majors but doesn’t have anything approaching a statistically significant track record at the game’s highest level. The former first-rounder will surely take up another depth spot at Triple-A entering the 2020 campaign.

Joseph received brief time with three big-league clubs last year. He’s a three-year MLB vet but still hasn’t quite cracked the century mark in total plate appearances. Soon to turn 31, he’s a .294/.362/.457 hitter in 1,710 career trips to the dish at the Triple-A level.

Both of those players are on the same general track as the 32-year-old Elmore, who has circled the block a few more times but also will be viewed by the market as a depth option. He has appeared in over two hundred MLB contests over parts of six seasons, slashing a cumulative .215/.292/.275 over 527 plate appearances.

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