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Latest On Jameson Taillon

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A flexor strain in Pirates starter Jameson Taillon’s pitching elbow has kept the right-hander off a major league mound since May 1. Almost two months later, Taillon’s not recovering as hoped, Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic explains (subscription required). Surgery could emerge as a possibility for Taillon if he doesn’t begin progressing, Biertempfel notes.

Taillon first started feeling symptoms of his flexor strain in spring training, well before he landed on the injured list. He still hasn’t resumed throwing since going on the IL, though the Pirates are hopeful that will change in 10 to 14 days, director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk told Biertempfel. However, Tomcyzk admitted “we might have to go in another direction” – possibly surgery – with Taillon if he shows ill effects after he returns to throwing. Regardless, it doesn’t appear he’s close to a return to the majors.

An elbow procedure would be the second for Taillon, who underwent Tommy John surgery as a prized prospect in 2014. Now, given the 27-year-old’s importance to the Bucs, another TJ procedure would be an enormous blow to Taillon and the team. Taillon entered 2019 off his best season in the majors, in which he threw 191 innings of 3.20 ERA/3.46 FIP ball with 8.43 K/9 and 2.17 BB/9, and performed well again this year before going on the IL. Even though he wasn’t at full strength, Taillon managed 37 1/3 frames of 4.10 ERA/3.76 FIP pitching with 7.23 K/9, 1.93 BB/9 and a 49.6 percent groundball rate.

Injuries to Taillon and other starters help explain the Pirates’ 33-40 record, which is the third-worst mark in the National League. The club just got back Trevor Williams, but he missed a little over a month with a side strain. Meanwhile, Jordan Lyles has been on the IL since June 10. Of starters who opened the season in Pittsburgh’s rotation, Taillon, Williams and Lyles have been its top performers so far. On the other hand, Joe Musgrove and Chris Archer haven’t prevented runs at palatable rates.

Pirates Activate Trevor Williams, Option Mitch Keller

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The Pirates announced today that they have activated right-hander Trevor Williams. To open an active roster spot, the club optioned fellow righty Mitch Keller.

Williams ended up missing just over a month of action with a side strain. Before going on the injured list on May 17, the 27-year-old Williams pitched to a matching 3.33 ERA/3.33 FIP with 7.0 K/9, 1.67 BB/9 and .67 HR/9 in 54 innings. Williams, Joe Musgrove and the currently injured pair of Jordan Lyles and Jameson Taillon have been the Pirates’ most productive starters this season. Lyles, out since June 10 with left hamstring tightness, will make a minor league rehab start Sunday, Adam Berry of MLB.com tweets.

Pittsburgh turned to Keller, 23, in hopes the premier prospect would help provide answers for an injury-laden rotation. Instead, Keller has allowed 14 earned runs on 21 hits and six walks through 12 innings and three starts thus far. But Keller was fairly effective in a loss to Detroit on Tuesday, when he yielded two earned runs (four total) on four hits and two walks in five innings, and has already notched 15 strikeouts in his big league career.

Pirates Sign Darnell Sweeney To Minors Contract

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The Pirates have signed utilityman Darnell Sweeney to a minor league contract, John Dreker of Pirates Prospects reports.  Sweeney will report to the Bucs’ Triple-A affiliate.

Sweeney appeared in two games with the Blue Jays last season, which marked his first taste of Major League action since debuting as a big leaguer with a 37-game stint for the Phillies in 2015.  The 28-year-old has a .172/.294/.345 slash line to show for his 102 career plate appearances in the Show, though he has a significantly better .267/.339/.412 career mark over 3302 minor league PA for four different organizations.  After being let go into free agency by the Jays last winter, Sweeney signed on with the Kansas City T-Bones of the independent American Association.

Sweeney has played mostly as an outfielder at the big league level, though he has amassed quite a bit of second base, shortstop, and third base experience in the minors.  This extra versatility will be helpful in earning a spot on the Pirates’ roster, as Pittsburgh is already dealing with a glut of outfielders (barring a trade, of course).

MLB Draft Signings: 6/15/19

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Here’s a look at the game’s latest noteworthy draft signings, with the newest moves at the top of the post.  Click here for the full list of slot values and draft pool bonuses, and you can find prospect rankings and scouting reports from Baseball America’s Top 500, Fangraphs’ Top 200, MLB.com’s Top 200, and the Top 50 of ESPN.com’s Keith Law….

Latest Signings

  • The Red Sox inked second-rounder Cameron Cannon, as per a team press release.  MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo first reported the Cannon signing earlier this week, and MLB.com’s Jim Callis tweets that Cannon will receive a $1.3MM bonus, which is lower than the $1,729,800 slot price attached to the 43rd overall pick.  It should be noted that Cannon was Boston’s first pick of the 2019 draft, as their initial draft spot was dropped ten places as punishment for exceeding the luxury tax threshold by more than $40MM.  Fangraphs had the highest projection on Cannon, ranking him 48th on their list of draft’s top prospects and describing the high schooler as an “infielder with approach and strong bat-to-ball skills,” with a potential for more power if he changes his swing.
  • The Royals have a deal with second-round pick Brady McConnell, as per MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo (Twitter link).  The 44th overall pick has a slot price of $1,689,500, though Kansas City went well over that figure in signing McConnell to a $2,222,450 bonus.  Ranked as the 39th-best prospect in the draft by MLB.com, their scouting report on McConnell citing his speed, contact ability, and “the chance for future average power.”  While McConnell was drafted as a shortstop, his future could be at second base or potentially even in center field.
  • Two teams made significant signings beyond the 10th round that will have hefty impacts on their draft bonus pools, as every post-10th round draft pick who signs for more than $125K will have the extra money counted against the pool.  The Braves signed 13th-round pick Tyler Owens to a $547.5K bonus, as per MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, while MLB.com’s Jim Callis reports that the Cardinals have signed 14th-rounder Tyler Statler to a $300K bonus.  Both Owens and Statler are right-handed pitchers out of high school, who had respectively committed to attend Florida and Southeast Missouri State.

Earlier Today

  • Pirates supplemental first-round pick Sammy Siani has signed an above-slot deal worth $2.15MM, Jim Callis of MLB.com reports. The recommended slot value for Siani’s pick (No. 37) was $1.99MM. Siani’s a Pennsylvania-based high school outfielder who may have “a little Andrew Benintendi in him,” per Callis and MLB.com colleague Jonathan Mayo, who give rave reviews to his left-handed swing.
  • Braves second-rounder Beau Philip (No. 60) has signed a below-slot deal for $700K, Mayo tweets. He’d have earned $1,157,400 at full value. Philip barely cracked MLB.com’s Top 200 entering the draft, coming in at No. 195. The Oregon State shortstop should be able to stay at the position, write Callis and Mayo, who laud his athleticism and bat speed.
  • The Indians have signed second-round choice Yordys Valdes for $1MM, according to Callis. The slot value for his pick, No. 63, was $1,076,300. Valdes is a switch-hitting, contact-making high school shortstop from Florida. Third-rounder Joe Naranjo – the 101st pick – also signed, but he landed an above-slot deal worth $770K ($577K slot). The California-based high school first baseman boasts “one of the best prep bats” in his draft class, Callis relays.
  • The Astros announced the signing of second-rounder Grae Kessinger, a shortstop from Ole Miss. The 68th overall pick, Kessinger received $750K – down from a $953K slot value. Kessinger may move into a second base/utility role in the pros, Callis and Mayo write. Houston also signed fourth-rounder Colin Barber to a deal worth well above slot, Callis relays. Barber, the 136th pick ($410K slot value), received $1MM. The California high schooler and former Oregon commit profiles as a hard-hitting right fielder, Callis writes.
  • Rangers fourth-rounder Cody Freeman (No. 115) has signed for $900K – significantly more than his $502K slot value – Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. Freeman, yet another California high schooler, had committed to Baylor. Baseball America notes Freeman has “premium instincts” and offers a “well-rounded” package.

The Overlooked Pirate

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Andrew McCutchen was the face of the franchise during his time with the Pirates, one of their best players ever, but it became obvious a couple years back they’d have to trade him. Entering 2018, McCutchen’s final year of team control, the low-budget Pirates knew they weren’t going to extend the outfielder. Consequently, Pittsburgh traded McCutchen to San Francisco for two prospects – right-hander Kyle Crick and outfielder Bryan Reynolds – as well as $500K in international bonus pool space. Crick debuted first with the Pirates and has been a quality piece of their bullpen, but Reynolds has been even an more impressive major leaguer thus far.

Reynolds was a 2016 second-round pick of the Giants who ranked among their top five prospects when they traded him for McCutchen. At the time, Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said of Reynolds: “Bryan is an effective offensive player that also plays quality defense. We look forward to working with Bryan to maximize his tools and help him become a quality well-rounded Major League player who can impact a game in many ways beyond his quality bat.”

That sounds right up to now. Since the Pirates promoted Reynolds to their roster April 20, the 24-year-old has slashed a tremendous .354/.407/.563 (157 wRC+) with five home runs in 171 plate appearances. As a member of the Pirates’ outfield, he has accounted for three Defensive Runs Saved and a plus-0.4 Ultimate Zone Rating in 335 innings divided between left and center. The package has been worth 1.7 fWAR, making Reynolds one of the most valuable first-year players in baseball. If not for Mets first baseman Pete Alonso and Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., there would be far more NL Rookie of the Year buzz centering on Reynolds.

Many a rookie has fizzled after a blazing start, though, so it’s worth checking into the odds of Reynolds continuing to post above-average production going forward. The switch-hitting Reynolds was a .312/.373/.472 batter in 1,217 minor league plate appearances, which augurs well, though all but 57 of those attempts came in Double-A ball or lower. Reynolds always ran high batting averages on balls in play in the minors, but his .439 BABIP as a Pirate flat-out isn’t going to sustain itself. It ranks first in the league among those who have totaled at least 170 PA this year. Reynolds is on pace to accrue upward of 400 trips to the plate this season. Of hitters who amassed at least that many a year ago, no one put up a BABIP better than .375.

Going solely by BABIP, Reynolds’ production is going to fall. Reynolds also appears unlikely to keep up his .210 isolated power, considering it never rose above .188 during extended looks in the minors (and that occurred during a low-A stint in 2010). He’s also hitting the plurality of batted balls on the ground, which doesn’t bode well for power. That said, all hope isn’t lost for Reynolds. According to Statcast, Reynolds ranks closer to the top of the league than the bottom in expected slugging percentage (.439; 53rd percentile), weighted-on base average (.347; 62nd percentile), average exit velocity (90.1 mph; 69th percentile), sprint speed (73rd percentile), hard-hit percentage (47.4; 88th percentile) and expected batting average (.300; 92nd percentile).

So, while Reynolds’ .412 weighted on-base average ranks 14th in the league and puts him a few points above Nolan Arenado, he’s not that good. Reynolds’ xwOBA sits 55 points lower than his xwOBA, though it still places him a point or two above household names such as Alex Gordon, DJ LeMahieu and Jose Altuve. Like LeMahieu, Reynolds walks at a slightly below-average clip (7.5 percent). Meanwhile, Reynolds’ strikeout percentage (22.2) is a tad above average. Combining the two numbers makes Reynolds an average performer in terms of K/BB ratio. And the fact that Reynolds hasn’t yet shown any vulnerability from either side of the plate only makes him a more appealing offensive piece.

Reynolds’ bottom-line production through almost two months of his major league career paint him as a budding star. A peek under the hood suggests he’s not there yet, but Reynolds does look like a legitimate building block for the Pirates. He and Crick are amounting to a nice return for one year of control over McCutchen, whom the Pirates weren’t going to bring back. It’s a welcome bit of good news for a team that doesn’t appear to have made out that well in sending Gerrit Cole, Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow away in other key trades dating back to January 2018.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pirates To Select Dario Agrazal

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The Pirates will select the contract of righty Dario Agrazal, per a club announcement. He has been tapped to start the club’s game tomorrow.

Agrazal was added to the Pittsburgh 40-man roster in the fall of 2017, but lost his spot this January. He remained in the organization after clearing waivers.

With the Bucs struggling to fill innings, Agrazal will now receive his first shot at the majors. He has pitched to a 3.27 ERA in 74 1/3 upper minors innings thus far in 2019, carrying 7.0 K/9 against 1.2 BB/9.

Who Will Win The NL Central?

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The National League Central looked like a three-team race at the beginning of the season, and not much has changed two months into the campaign. The Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals – the most hyped clubs in the division coming into the year – are at the top. After winning the division a year ago, the Brewers are 39-29, a half-game better than the Cubs. The Cardinals are a less impressive 33-33, five games back, though they’re certainly not out of the race. Meanwhile, the Reds and Pirates are eight and nine games behind, respectively. Neither looked likely to challenge for the NL Central at the outset of the season. They haven’t done anything to change anyone’s mind yet.

Led by reigning MVP right fielder Christian Yelich, brilliant free-agent acquisition Yasmani Grandal and offseason re-signing Mike Moustakas, the Brewers boast one of the majors’ most valuable groups of position players.  Their pitching hasn’t been as useful, on the other hand, as a rotation that was devoid of an ace entering the season has dealt with ineffectiveness and injuries throughout the year. However, the team still features elite reliever Josh Hader, with Jeremy Jeffress and Adrian Houser among those supporting him.

The Cubs’ position player mix has been even better than the Brewers’ this year, largely because Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras and David Bote have each offered strong production. Chicago’s rotation is probably better equipped, too, as Kyle Hendricks, Cole Hamels, Jose Quintana and Jon Lester are all proven commodities. Although, Yu Darvish hasn’t rebounded as hoped in his second year as a Cub. Darvish & Co. have handed off to a bullpen that hasn’t been lights-out this year, but it’s about to welcome all-time great closer Craig Kimbrel, whom the Cubs signed to a three-year, $43MM contract last week. Kimbrel would have been a match for the Brewers, making it all the more beneficial for the Cubs that they landed him (on paper, at least).

As for the Cardinals, they’ve fallen short of expectations after trading for ex-Diamondback Paul Goldschmidt, one of the premier position players in recent memory, and signing reliever Andrew Miller in the offseason. Both players have logged somewhat disappointing production to date, though Goldschmidt’s still an imposing presence and Miller has improved after a rocky start. Regardless, neither the Cardinals’ cast of hitters nor their relief corps is their most pressing issue. It’s their rotation, which hasn’t gotten high-end numbers from anyone. Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas have gone backward after impressive showings in 2018, while Dakota Hudson’s peripherals portend trouble. Adam Wainwright’s much closer to average than ace-like these days (and he’s now on the injured list with a hamstring issue), and nobody has nailed down the fifth spot in the Redbirds’ starting staff.

Considering the talent peppered throughout the Cardinals’ roster, it would be foolhardy to rule them out as potential division winners this season. Furthermore, with the trade deadline still yet to occur, St. Louis or anyone else in the division could put itself over the top with a shrewd acquisition(s) leading up to July 31. For now, though, the edge clearly belongs to the Cubs and the Brewers. FanGraphs currently projects the NL Central to finish in this order: Cubs (91-71), Brewers (87-75), Cardinals (83-79), Reds (78-84), Pirates (75-87). How do you expect it to shake out?

(Poll link for app users)

Blue Jays Acquire Nick Kingham

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The Blue Jays have acquired right-hander Nick Kingham from the Pirates for cash considerations, as announced by both teams.  Ryan Tepera has been shifted to the 60-day injured list to create room on Toronto’s roster.

Kingham was designated for assignment this week, effectively ending almost a full decade in Pittsburgh’s organization for the righty.  Kingham was a fourth-round pick in the 2010 draft and has long been considered one of the more promising arms both in the Bucs’ farm system and in baseball as a whole, appearing on top-100 prospect lists prior to both the 2014 and 2015 seasons.  Tommy John surgery in 2015 delayed his progress, though he still amassed a 3.46 ERA, 3.17 K/BB rate, and 7.7 K/9 over 766 1/3 career innings in the minors, starting 142 of his 147 games.

As a big-leaguer, Kingham flirted with history when he carried a perfect game into the seventh inning during his MLB debut back on April 29, 2018.  Overall, however, Kingham has struggled to find consistency in the Show, posting a 6.67 ERA that has been boosted by 25 homers allowed over 110 2/3 innings, though he has a higher strikeout rate (8.2 K/9) in the majors than in the minors, albeit over a much smaller sample size.

Though the Pirates are far from deep in starting pitching options, it seems like they were simply ready to move on from the 27-year-old Kingham, who now gets a chance on a Blue Jays team that is in even more desperate need of rotation help.  The Jays rank at or near the bottom of the league in most starting pitching categories, and will need even more starters on hand to fill the void if/when Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez are both moved before the July 31st trade deadline.  Kingham could get a shot in the rotation immediately (which could mean the end of struggling veteran Edwin Jackson’s time in Toronto) or he could throw out of the bullpen as a long man until a trade or until the Jays decide a change needs to be made.

Pirates Notes: Chisenhall, Cervelli, Kela, Burdi

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We checked in on a couple injured Pirates a few hours ago. Here’s the latest on more banged-up Bucs from their director of sports medicine, Todd Tomczyk (courtesy of Adam Berry of MLB.com):

  • The Pirates signed outfielder Lonnie Chisenhall to a one-year, $2.75MM deal in the offseason, but he hasn’t played yet and it doesn’t appear he will anytime soon. Chisenhall’s still at home mending from left calf tightness. The 30-year-old opened the season on the injured list because of a finger issue, and not long after he started a rehab assignment April 19, the team shut him down because of the calf problem. The same calf prevented Chisenhall from playing past July 1 last year – his final season with the Indians.
  • Catcher Francisco Cervelli, out since May 26 with a concussion, will be reexamined by a neurologist on Thursday. He still hasn’t been cleared for workouts. Cervelli’s season got off to a poor start even before his latest concussion-caused absence, while fellow Pirates backstops Elias Diaz and Jacob Stallings have also posted subpar aggregate production. Diaz has hit well over the past month, though.
  • While Reliever Keone Kela hasn’t taken a major league mound since May 4, he could start throwing again Thursday or Friday. Kela had gone on a rehab stint toward the end of last month, but the Pirates halted it May 31 after he suffered a setback in his injured right shoulder. A headline-grabbing acquisition for the Pirates last summer, the 26-year-old Kela has struggled to a 4.63 ERA/5.63 FIP with 8.49 K/9, 3.09 BB/9 and a 37.1 percent groundball rate in 11 2/3 innings this season.
  • One of Keone’s fellow righty relievers, Nick Burdi, has returned to throwing. However, he’s still dealing with symptoms from the nerve injury that forced him to the IL almost two months ago. Burdi incurred his injury April 22 in his most recent outing. The flamethrowing 26-year-old had begun the season in encouraging fashion prior to that night, when he allowed five earned runs in a third of an inning and saw his ERA go from 4.32 to 9.35. Although an ERA that ugly is hard to ignore, it’s worth noting Burdi has put up a stellar 17:3 K:BB ratio in 8 2/3 innings this season.

Pirates’ Trevor Williams Nearing Return

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The Pirates have had to go almost a month without right-hander Trevor Williams, who landed on the injured list May 17 with a right side strain. Williams will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Indianapolis on Thursday, though, and could slot back into Pittsburgh’s rotation as early as next Tuesday, Adam Berry of MLB.com reports.

Even with the injury factored in, the 27-year-old Williams has perhaps been the Pirates’ best starter in 2019. Before going on the IL, Williams totaled nine starts and 54 innings – good for a six-frame average – and pitched to a matching 3.33 ERA/3.33 FIP with 7.0 K/9, 1.67 BB/9 and .67 HR/9. It continued an underrated run of production for Williams, who combined for a 3.49 ERA/3.68 FIP over 56 starts and 309 1/3 innings from 2017-18.

In addition to Williams’ forthcoming return, the Pirates will soon welcome back fellow righty Jordan Lyles, per Berry. Lyles just hit the IL on the 10th with left hamstring tightness, though it appears he’ll only miss the minimum 10 days. So far in 2019, the 28-year-old has performed like one of the top bargain signings of the offseason. Since inking a one-year, $2.05MM contract during the winter, Lyles has notched a 3.64 ERA/3.63 FIP with 9.23 K/9, 3.36 BB/9 and .98 HR/9 in 12 starts and 64 1/3 frames.

Of the 11 pitchers who have started for the Pirates this year, Williams, Lyles, Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon are the only ones who have posted average or better numbers. Taillon has been down since the beginning of May with a right flexor strain, however, and Berry reports there’s still no timetable for his return. Meanwhile, Chris Archer has come up well short of expectations, Steven Brault has battled control problems, and opposing offenses hammered high-end prospect Mitch Keller during his first two starts.

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