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Cardinals Notes: Pujols, Wacha, Taveras

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The Cardinals' selection of Albert Pujols (13th round, 1999) is the best draft pick in MLB history, says Dan Szymborski of ESPN (Insider-only). Szymborski uses a non-linear model to assess the WAR value of each draft pick, then compares actual picks to their expected value over nine years to create a list of the top 100 picks in draft history. Szymborski notes that the fact that Pujols was so good from the very beginning of his career made him particularly valuable as a draft pick, since the Cards didn't have to wait for a few years after his debut for him to become a superstar. Here are more notes on the Redbirds.

How Valuable Are Competitive Balance Draft Picks?

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This year’s draft will be the first to feature competitive balance draft picks. These picks, which go to small-market and low-revenue teams, were awarded in a lottery last year. Some will take place after the first round, others after the second round. Unlike with regular draft picks, it’s possible for teams to trade competitive balance picks, which means that each team surely has decided how much these picks are worth.USATSI_7210839

This is the full draft order. The competitive balance picks are as follows:

34. Royals
35. Marlins (from Pirates)
36. Diamondbacks
37. Orioles
38. Reds
39. Tigers (from Marlins)

69. Padres
70. Rockies
71. A’s
72. Brewers
73. Marlins (from Tigers)

A 2009 study by Baseball Analysts’ Sky Andrecheck suggested that the average value of the No. 30 overall pick was 3.6 WAR — basically, the equivalent of about two decent seasons for a role player. The value of the competititve balance picks from No. 34 to No. 39, then, would be slightly less. Placing a numerical value on these draft picks in the current draft environment is tricky, however, because so much about the draft has changed in the past two years. Unlike in years past, teams are reined in by bonus pool allotments, so they aren’t picking players for the same reasons they used to.

Teams can trade competitive balance picks, and two trades have already occurred, both of them involving the Marlins. The Pirates traded (what turned out to be) their No. 35 pick to Miami, along with outfielder Gorkys Hernandez, for first baseman Gaby Sanchez and minor-league pitcher Kyle Kaminska. The Marlins also traded their own competitive balance pick to the Tigers in the Anibal Sanchez deal, receiving the Tigers’ pick in return.

The Gaby Sanchez deal is a lot simpler, so let’s work from there. Hernandez and Kaminska weren’t key parts of the trade, so the deal boils down to Gaby Sanchez for the No. 35 overall pick. Pirates GM Neal Huntington recently explained the rationale behind the deal in an interview with David Todd on 970 ESPN in Pittsburgh (beginning at around 12:30).

“You see a David Wright, and you recognize, man, there’s a comp pick and there’s the risk, is we may have given up David Wright,” Huntington says. (Obviously, Wright wasn’t a competitive balance pick, but he was the No. 38 overall pick in the draft in 2001.)

“But … you recognize there’s about a 15% chance of getting an everyday big-leaguer in the 30-to-40 pick range,” says Huntington. “We felt like it was worth that 15% chance that we were going to get an everyday big-leaguer.

“You’ve also got a smaller chance to get an impact guy like David Wright, but you’ve got about a 60% miss rate at those picks, and in our minds, it’s going to be even [higher] now that the draft is much more scripted than it’s ever been.”

A look at recent draft history reveals Huntington’s analysis to be essentially correct. Let’s look at the 30-40 pick range from the 2001 through 2005 drafts. (Although Huntington mentioned the “30-to-40 pick range,” the No. 30 pick will typically be a traditional first-round pick, not a competitive-balance pick.)

2001: Noah Lowry (30), Jeff Mathis (33), Bronson Sardinha (34), J.D. Martin (35), John Rheinecker (37), David Wright (38)

2002: Dan Meyer (34), Jeremy Brown (35), Mark Teahen (39)

2003: Mitch Maier (30), Matt Murton (32), Omar Quintanilla (33), Luis Atilano (35), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (36), Adam Jones (37), James Houser (38), Tony Gwynn, Jr. (39), Jay Sborz (40)

2004: Eric Hurley (30), J.P. Howell (31), Zach Jackson (32), Matt Fox (35), Danny Putnam (36), Gio Gonzalez (38), Huston Street (40)

2005: Tyler Greene (30), Ryan Tucker (34), Cesar Ramos (35), Travis Buck (36), Trevor Bell (37)

This distribution of outcomes is fairly telling — in 55 picks, there’s one superstar (Wright), two very good players (Jones and Gonzalez), a good closer (Street), a decent regular (Saltalamacchia) and a smattering of role players. This was a better five-year period for picks 31 through 40 than the five-year periods before or after it, and still the chances of nabbing a meaningful player with one of those picks was, it appears, relatively small. For competitive balance picks after the second round, the chances of grabbing a good player are even smaller. (Well, at least theoretically. From 2001 through 2005, the list of quality players chosen between No. 66 and No. 75 includes Dan Haren, Kurt Suzuki, Jason Vargas, Wade Davis and Chase Headley. That’s not bad.)

Gaby Sanchez, who has produced 0.4 WAR for the Pirates this season, is more valuable than most players from the 31 through 40 range who made the majors, and obviously also more valuable than the ones who didn’t make the majors. He’s also cheap, making $1.75MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility. Notably, though, the Pirates quickly slotted him into the short end of a platoon role, meaning that they recognized him as a part-time player.

Is it worth it to give up a shot at the next David Wright for a part-time player? That depends on how great the shot is, and the position of the franchise making the trade. The Marlins were selling off their disappointing 2012 team at the time of the Sanchez deal, so it made sense for them to take a shot in the dark at finding the next David Wright. But the Pirates were trying to position themselves as a contender, so Sanchez had more value for them than a shot in the dark did.

Another consideration is the bonus pool allotment for competitive balance picks. Last year’s pool value for the No. 35 pick was $1.4MM; this year, that figure will be slightly higher. So the Marlins will have a little over $1.4MM extra to distribute to all its draft picks, assuming they sign whoever they take at No. 35, while the Pirates will forfeit the ability to spend that money. The Astros, for example, used a large bonus pool to their advantage in the later rounds last year, signing players like Lance McCullers Jr. for well over the bonus recommendation.

In the next few years, teams’ ability to trade competitive balance selections should allow us to begin to see how teams value draft picks. The competitive balance picks are late enough in the draft that they’re fairly low-percentage plays. They’re still valuable, however, so we should see rebuilding small-market and low-revenue teams try to acquire them — either one-for-one (or more or less one-for-one) for role players like Gaby Sanchez, or as part of packages in deals involving more premium talents.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL East Notes: Ellsbury, Red Sox, Yankees, Breslow

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As we celebrate Memorial Day, we have a full slate of interleague baseball to take in.  It's Subway Series time in New York as the Yankees are in Queens to take on the Mets.  The Bombers are tied atop the AL East with the Red Sox thanks to Boston's three consecutive wins against the Indians, but the Yankees could gain some separation with a strong showing against their crosstown rivals.  Here's more out of the AL East…

  • Jacoby Ellsbury's free agency will be extra complicated thanks to the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, something that Michael Bourn knows all about, Tim Britton of The Providence Journal writes.  “It was tough,” Bourn said of his value being affected by draft pick compensation. “You really can’t change anything about it. It affected people in different ways if you had that attached to you. It's part of the process and you just have to deal with it now. You aren't going to change anything by pouting about it.”
  • Before claiming left-handed reliever David Huff off waivers from the Indians, the Yankees asked the Pirates about Mike Zagurski, writes George A. King III of the New York Post.  The Bucs said no, however, and selected Zagurski's contract this morning after transferring Jeff Karstens to the 60-day disabled list.
  • After he was released from the Brewers' High-A affiliate in 2004, Craig Breslow almost gave up on baseball to pursue a career in orthopedic surgery or sports medicine, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal.  Nine years later, Breslow is a bona fide major league reliever for the Red Sox.  The left-hander is in the first multi-year deal of his career, a two-year, $6.25MM pact with a $4MM team option for 2015.

Draft Notes: Gray, Astros, Pirates, Crawford

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"Buzz is growing" that the Astros will take Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray (rather than, among others, Stanford pitcher Mark Appel) with the first overall pick in the upcoming draft, Troy Renck of the Denver Post writes. Gray was recently named the Most Outstanding Player in the Big 12 tournament, says Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle (on Twitter). Here are more notes on the draft.

  • Potential choices for the Pirates with the 9th and 14th picks in the draft include high school pitchers Kohl Stewart and Trey Ball, and college hitter D.J. Peterson, write Jason A. Churchill and Chris Crawford of ESPN.com (Insider-only). Many mock drafts have Stewart coming off the board before the Pirates pick at No. 9, but a high-upside arm like Stewart's would surely be tempting if it fell that far. Churchill and Crawford list their potential fits for other NL Central teams as well, so be sure to check that out.
  • The top of this year's draft is thinner at the middle infield positions than in years past, MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo writes. "It's about as weak as it's been in recent memory," says a scouting director. "It seems like we might not have one go off in the top 15 picks, which would be unusual. I think that speaks to the weakness of the class." California high school shortstop J.P. Crawford, Carl Crawford's nephew, is likely to be the middle infielder drafted first.
  • The Wall Street Journal's Tim Marchman, meanwhile, asks whether Major League Baseball even ought to have a draft. Marchman suggests that the draft is "inefficient," (by which he means that the top talents are more difficult to identify than they are in, say, the NBA) and also "unjust" (by which he means that players can't just sign where they want). Marchman proposes simply scrapping the draft and making amateur player acquisition an open market, suggesting that would be the best way to "spread the talent around." It's hard to see how such a system would distribute talent evenly, however — lower-payroll teams and teams in northern markets (most draft-eligible players come from the South and Southwest) would likely struggle to attract notable players.

Quick Hits: Brignac, Mariners, Odorizzi

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We will start the weekend off with a few notes from around baseball:

  • Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets that the Pirates and Twins may have interest in infielder Reid Brignac. The Rockies recently designated Brignac for assignment to clear room for DJ LeMahieu. The 27-year-old Brignac had slashed .250/.294/.375 over 53 plate appearances in his first season in Colorado. He owns a career line of .228/.270/.321 in 719 plate appearances for the Rays and Rockies.
  • ESPN's Jim Bowden (subscription required) suggests some key adjustments for the Mariners, who he believes can compete this season. Bowden argues that the Mariners could improve their disappointing offense by trading from their pitching depth, as well as by promoting top prospects Nick Franklin and Mike Zunino.
  • Highly-rated prospect Jake Odorizzi could throw his first pitch for the Rays as soon as Monday, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, as he appears first in line to fill in for injured starter David Price. If he is called up, Odorizzi would become the first of the four prospects acquired in the James Shields trade to see action for the big club. Baseball America rated Odorizzi as the Rays' fifth-best prospect going into the season, and he has been solid at Triple-A so far, posting a 3.83 ERA over 44 2/3 innings to go with 9.5 K/9 and 3 BB/9.

Max Fogle contributed to this post.

Minor Moves: Humber, Jeroloman, Boyer

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Here's your rundown of minor moves for Friday…

  • Astros right-hander Philip Humber has accepted his outright assignment to Triple-A Oklahoma City, reports Brian McTaggart of MLB.com (via Twitter). Today was the deadline for Humber to decide to report to Triple-A or elect free agency after being outrighted off the 40-man roster earlier this week.
  • The Nationals have acquired minor league catcher Brian Jeroloman from the Pirates, according to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (on Twitter). The 28-year-old was hitting .222/.481/.278 thanks to his nine walks in 29 plate appearances for Triple-A Indianapolis. Mark Zuckerman of CSN Washington adds that the Nats gave up cash for Jeroloman because they needed catching depth with Jhonatan Solano back in the Majors and Wilson Ramos on the DL (Twitter links). Jeroloman is a career .235/.349/.305 hitter in 122 Triple-A games.
  • Right-hander Blaine Boyer exercised the out clause in his minor league deal with the Royals and became a free agent, tweets Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star. Boyer hasn't pitched in the bigs since 2011. He has a 4.81 ERA in 234 career innings after being selected by the Braves in the third round in 2000. Boyer posted a 3.00 ERA, 10.8 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 15 innings for the Royals' Triple-A affiliate, though he allowed four unearned runs as well and served up three homers.

Extension Candidate: Starling Marte

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Starling Marte has arguably been the biggest key to the Pirates’ 21-16 start, and at 24, the outfielder looks like an emerging star. This weekend on Twitter, Pirates bloggers and the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review’s Travis Sawchik discussed the merits of a possible contract extension for Marte. Given Marte’s skimpy big-league track record — he has just 341 career plate appearances — a long-term deal might seem a bit ambitious right now. But if Marte’s productivity continues, the Pirates will surely consider offering an extension at some point, and there may be a case for offering one sooner rather than later.

According to MLBTR’s Extension Tracker, there have been only three recent extensions for players with less than one year of service time: the Royals’ 2012 pact with Salvador Perez, and the Rays’ deals with Matt Moore in 2011 and Evan Longoria in 2008. All three contracts included three team options, and all gave their teams the rights to multiple free agent years. USATSI_7245576

There would be little point to the Pirates signing Marte to an extension without such team-friendly terms, since a good portion of Marte’s value will likely come from his superior defense and baserunning, which aren’t likely to win him huge arbitration salaries. Whether he’ll continue to post gaudy offensive numbers is less certain. Marte could still be very productive without big counting stats, but without them, he isn’t likely to make huge sums in arbitration.

Therefore, from the Pirates’ perspective, the point of an extension would be to buy the rights to some of Marte’s free agent years while ensuring that the prices of his arbitration-eligible seasons remain low. Any multi-year contract would set Marte for life, and Marte only received an $85K bonus as an amateur, so there would be reason for the Legacy Agency client to consider a deal, even at terms somewhat favorable to the Pirates.

Projecting what Marte might make in arbitration is just about impossible this early in his career. His current line of .336/.399/.517 is likely unsustainable, due to a .422 BABIP. But his speed and minor-league history (he batted .312 in his minor-league career) make him a good bet to continue hitting for average. Scouts also like his power potential. His Achilles heel, if he has one, will likely be his lack of plate discipline — he has just 15 walks in 341 career plate appearances. Even if he struggles as National League pitchers begin to adjust to his tendency to swing at pitches outside the zone, he should provide plenty of value with his defense, but his career could still range anywhere from “superstar” to “Jeff Francoeur.”

Nonetheless, an extension is a risk that the Pirates probably ought to consider. A speculative extension for a largely-unproven player has downside, as the Bucs are finding with their six-year, $15MM deal for now-fourth outfielder Jose Tabata. But it’s difficult for the Pirates to find stars through other means, so it behooves them to lock up their best young players early and cheaply. It’s no accident that the Royals and Rays, whose payrolls are typically somewhat similar to those of the Pirates, are the teams experimenting with early-career contracts for Perez, Longoria and Moore.

Perhaps the best precedent for a Marte extension, though, would be the Twins’ five-year, $16.5MM deal with Denard Span. Span doesn’t have Marte’s power, but like Marte, he generates plenty of value through defense and baserunning. The Twins signed Span before the 2010 season, when he had one year and 111 days of service time. A five-year deal that begins in 2014, when Marte himself will be between one and two years of service time, would put Marte on a similar track. Marte’s potential for big arbitration payouts might actually be somewhat higher than Span’s, due to Marte’s power, so a slightly higher dollar figure might be in order. Span’s contract has one option year; the Pirates could attempt to wrangle at least one additional option year from Marte to help compensate for the risk of signing him so early in his career.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL Notes: Garza, Pirates, Prado, Padres

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Here's the latest news and notes from the National League:

  • Matt Garza, number seven on MLBTR's 2014 Free Agent Rankings, is slated for one or two additional minor league rehab starts after an abbreviated outing yesterday, reports MLB.com's Carrie Muskat. Garza threw 66 pitches (40 for strikes) over 3 1/3 innings for Double-A Tennessee allowing three hits and two walks. "He felt great and everything, but not real efficient," Cubs mangager Dale Sveum said. "Right now, we have to get him built up to get to the fourth, fifth and hopefully sixth inning." Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets Garza is expected to throw 85-95 pitches in his next rehab start, which will come next week for Triple-A Iowa.
  • Pirates second baseman Neil Walker is set to return from the disabled list tomorrow and Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review doesn't expect utilityman John McDonald to be designated for assignment to create space on the 25-man roster. McDonald, hitting only .067/.176/.100 in 34 plate appearances this year, would have to clear waivers while infielder Jordy Mercer still has minor league options available. "I think the term general managers use is you want to maintain all of your assets," manager Clint Hurdle said. "You don't want to release somebody if another guy has options. We're mindful of that."
  • Despite a slow start offensively, the Diamondbacks are already seeing dividends from their four-year, $40MM investment in Martin Prado, writes the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Steve Hummer. 
  • The Padres, who have the 13th overall pick in next month's amateur draft, aren't concerned that the perceived top players will be off the board when it comes their turn, according to Corey Brock of MLB.com. "There's probably more balance [in the Draft] than people give it credit for," said Chad MacDonald, vice president and general manager of player personnel, who will preside over the Padres' draft. "There are a lot of high school hitters out there. I think people are quick to grade a Draft." In addition to their area scouts and cross-checkers, the Padres have had GM Josh Byrnes, vice president/assistant GM AJ Hinch, and senior vice president Omar Minaya in the field scouting players. 

NL Central Notes: Pirates, Grilli, Choo, Marte

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Here's a look at the latest out of the National League Central, where the Cardinals currently are in the lead..

  • It looks like the Pirates made the right move in trading Joel Hanrahan to the Red Sox this winter, as new closer Jason Grilli is thriving in the ninth inning, writes CBS Sports’ Danny Knobler.  Grilli has adjusted nicely to the closer role, as the 36-year-old right-hander owns a 1.26 ERA with 23 strikeouts and four walks through 14 and 1/3 innings.
  • Meanwhile, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports has the story on Reds leadoff hitter Shin-Soo Choo and his upcoming free agency.  Morosi argues that Choo is in line for a major contract this winter as he is raking in Cincinnati.  So far, the outfielder has a .323/.453/.569 slash line with seven homers.
  • In a separate piece, Knobler compares Pirate outfielders Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen.  While Marte lacks the notoriety of McCutchen and other top young players, that could soon change in Knobler's view.  Marte is off to an early .321/.385/.515 line with ten stolen bases so far this season.

Max Fogle contributed to this post.

Pirates Release Jonathan Sanchez

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Jonathan Sanchez has cleared waivers and been released by the Pirates, according to Michael Sanserino of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (on Twitter). The Pirates had designated Sanchez for assignment on April 30.

Sanchez, 30, was a staple in the Giants rotation from 2009-11 when he totaled 458 innings of 3.75 ERA ball and averaged 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He's always struggled with his command, and it's really gotten away from him since the beginning of last season. In his past 78 1/3 innings, Sanchez has walked 69 batters and fanned 68. His ERA in that time is a sky-high 8.73.

The Pirates added Sanchez on a minor league deal this offseason, and injuries to Francisco Liriano and Jeff Karstens earned him a brief chance in Pittsburgh's rotation. Prior to his DFA, Sanchez was suspended six games for throwing at Cardinals first baseman Allen Craig.

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