Pirates Rumors

Pirates right-hander Johan Oviedo was known to be undergoing tests for a serious arm injury, and the specifics of the injury are now known, as reporter Francys Romero (via X) writes that Oviedo will undergo Tommy John surgery.  Oviedo will miss all of the 2024 season, but given the usual 12-14 months associated with recovery, should hopefully be ready to return to a big league mound by Opening Day 2025.

Losing an entire season is a tough setback for Oviedo, who posted solid numbers for the Pirates in his full season as a Major League starter.  Oviedo started 26 of his 40 Major League appearances with the Cardinals and Pirates in 2020-22, though had mostly been relegated to bullpen work in St. Louis before the Bucs acquired him at the 2022 trade deadline.  Oviedo started all seven of his games for Pittsburgh post-trade, setting the table for a semi-breakout year this past season.

Oviedo (who turns 26 in March) had a 4.31 ERA, as well as a 20.2% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate that were both well below the league average.  On the plus side, his 44.9% grounder rate was more than decent, and Oviedo’s 177 2/3 frames ranked him within the top 30 in innings pitched last year.  This durability was a huge help on Pittsburgh’s overall young and shaky pitching staff, and it made Oviedo essentially the No. 2 starter behind Mitch Keller.

Pittsburgh was already looking to add pitching heading into the winter, ideally landing at least one veteran arm that could push Oviedo to the middle or even the back end of the rotation.  Unfortunately, he’s now out of the 2024 plans altogether, leaving the Bucs in even greater need of starting help.  Keller, Roansy Contreras, Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter, and former first-rounder Quinn Priester are probably the Pirates’ starting five if the season began today, though some upgrades are certainly needed to bolster this largely unproven group.  Of course, payroll is always a concern for the Pirates, so the search for arms might be limited to perhaps one notable veteran on a multi-year (as in two or at most three years) deal, and then lower-cost veterans on one-year pacts or minor league deals.

The Cuban-born Oviedo was an international signing for the Cardinals in 2016, and worked his way up the ladder for some big league action despite some less-then-stellar numbers in the minors.  Oviedo has a 5.37 ERA over 115 2/3 career innings at Triple-A and even a 5.65 ERA in 113 Double-A frames, as quite a few walks offset some solid strikeout numbers.  Those control problems have continued into Oviedo’s time in the majors, yet even settling into a role as a back-end starter who can eat innings can make for steady work.

The question now is whether or not Oviedo will be able to retain his durability after this major arm surgery.  While plenty of pitchers have returned from Tommy John procedures no worse for wear, there is always a threat that more elbow problems could arise in the future, which could impact Oviedo’s ability to stick as a starting pitcher.  Losing a year will already have an adverse effect on his earning power, as Oviedo will now be in line for a pretty low salary when he becomes arbitration-eligible for the first time next winter.

An already murky Pirates rotation mix is now facing even more uncertainty, as Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that righty Johan Oviedo is dealing with an arm injury that’s believed to be serious. The team hasn’t announced details or a precise diagnosis, but Mackey writes that Tommy John surgery is among the potential outcomes, so it would seem there’s some degree of ligament damage at play.

Oviedo, 25, came to the Pirates in the 2022 trade that sent lefty Jose Quintana to the division-rival Cardinals. Prior to the revelation of this injury, the righty had been locked into a 2024 rotation spot after taking the ball 32 times and pitching to a 4.31 ERA over the life of 177 2/3 innings. It’s hardly elite production, particularly when coupled with sub-par strikeout (20.6%) and walk (10.6%) rates, but Oviedo at least looked like a solid fourth starter who could be relied upon to take the ball every fifth game and keep his club in the game more often than not. Obviously, the mention of even potential Tommy John surgery throws a major wrench into that projection.

That’s particularly problematic news for a Pirates team that is generally lacking in established starters. Longtime top prospect Mitch Keller took a step forward in 2022-23 and is the unquestioned leader of the staff, but certainty thereafter is minimal. Right-hander Roansy Contreras took a step back in 2023, while fellow righty JT Brubaker had his own Tommy John surgery. Deadline pickup Bailey Falter has had some past success with the Phillies but struggled between both Pennsylvania clubs in 2023. Young right-handers Luis Ortiz and Quinn Priester each made at least 10 appearances, but neither cemented himself as a big leaguer. Alternative options like Osvaldo Bido, Jackson Wolf and Kyle Nicolas are similarly unproven.

General manager Ben Cherington has already stated publicly that his focus has been on starting pitching. Cherington presumably knew of Oviedo’s situation at the time of those comments, so this may not necessarily add any urgency to that search, but the revelation of Oviedo’s injury adds context for potential trade partners and agents as the Bucs explore ways to add to the rotation. With such ample uncertainty beyond Keller, it’d be fairly surprising if the Pirates didn’t add at least two arms to the rotation group for the upcoming season (to say nothing of veteran depth on minor league deals and some potential pickups of 40-man starters with minor league options remaining).

As things stand, the Pirates project for just a $53MM payroll in 2024, per Roster Resource. Even by their bottom-of-the-league standards, that leaves ample room for the team to add some experienced arms to the staff. Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes are the only players under guaranteed contracts, while the quintet of Keller, Brubaker, Ryan Borucki, David Bednar and Connor Joe are eligible for arbitration. Pittsburgh’s franchise-record Opening Day payroll was just shy of $100MM back in 2016. They operated with a payroll a bit north of $70MM in 2023.

Oviedo isn’t even arbitration-eligible yet and won’t be until after the 2024 season. He’s currently under club control for another four years, so even in the event that Oviedo does require UCL surgery, the Bucs could potentially get another three years out of him (2025-27) before he reaches free agency.