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Reds Predictions From John Fay

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John Fay has taken a unique approach to generating some more offseason predictions for this weekend. Rather than offer up ideas on what the Reds might do, Fay thinks he’s more likely to be correct if he takes a few guesses at what they won’t do.

  • The Reds will not acquire a veteran shortstop; Alex Gonzalez and Jeff Keppinger should be up to the task. If healthy, Gonzalez should start over Keppinger, says Fay.
  • Joey Votto will not be traded this offseason. Fay quotes Jocketty on this one; says the GM, "No chance."
  • Micah Owings will not play the outfield. He’ll pitch, as he well should.
  • The Reds won’t sign a veteran outfielder to a multi-year contract. If the Reds do sign such an outfielder, like Bobby Abreu, the deal will be for one-year. With the economy the way it is, such a deal may become increasingly more favorable to a player like Abreu.
  • As for Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey, Jr., however, neither player will suit up for the Reds in 2009. While both of these outfielders may also become amenable to a short-term contract given the current market, says Fay, "the Reds are set on moving beyond the Griffey-Dunn era."

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Pirates, Hudson, Tigers, Braves, Dunn, Yankees

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On this day 29 years ago, Albert Pujols was born. 2009 will be the sixth year of his eight year, $111MM deal (safe to say Cards will pick up his ’11 option). According to Fangraphs, Pujols has already been worth $151.9MM in the first five years of the contract ($30.4M per season), begging the question: How much will Pujols command following the ’11 season, when he will be 32? Last winter, Alex Rodriguez signed for 10 years and $275MM prior to his age 32 season. With less than a month to go before pitchers and catchers report, many players are still looking for their own new contracts. Let’s take a look at what is being written in the Blogosphere…

  • River Ave. Blues expands on Baseball Prospectus’ case against a salary cap and how small-market teams likely would not be able to support a minimum payroll.
  • Bucco Blog says the value of young talent has kept the Pirates from rebuilding. Instead, the team has spent the last two years restructuring and are now moving on to the next phase.
  • Jorge Says No examines the market for Orlando Hudson and feels the Nationals have to make a play for the second baseman.
  • The Detroit Tigers Weblog takes a look at who is still available to close for the Tigers in ’09.
  • Infield Chatter says the Braves were forced to overpay for Derek Lowe.
  • Braves Blast takes a look at the Braves offseason and what is left to do: adding an outfield bat and extending Chipper Jones’ contract.
  • On Baseball and The Reds takes a look at Adam Dunn’s value, with the numbers suggesting he is not worth much more than $20MM over four years.
  • Pinstripes Published makes a case for the Yankees acquiring Lastings Milledge from the Nats, while The Chuck Knoblog argues for Elijah Dukes.

Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com. If you have a suggestion for this feature, Cork can be reached here.  This is by far the best way to get your blog linked on MLBTR.

Brewers No Longer Interested In Dunn

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MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy spoke to Brewers GM Doug Melvin, who indicated the team is no longer interested in free agent slugger Adam Dunn.  The possibility was considered when the Brewers were discussing a Mike Cameron trade with the Yankees (Corey Hart would’ve moved to center field).  Cameron and Hart are staying put.

Another scenario, which Ken Rosenthal discussed a week ago, is trading Prince Fielder and replacing him with Dunn.  McCalvy doesn’t dismiss the idea outright, but notes that the Crew would be treading water in terms of lefthanded bats.

Rosenthal On Lackey, Dunn, Young, Isringhausen

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Here’s a look at the latest from Ken Rosenthal.

  • John Lackey is due up for extension talks with the Angels, as he’ll be eligible for free agency after the ’09 season.  He’d easily be the best available starter.  Rosenthal says talks with the Angels should occur before the beginning of the season, but the Halos may not be willing to offer A.J. Burnett money (five years, $82.5MM).  In November, Jayson Stark said Lackey had been telling friends he expects to have an extension by Opening Day.  That came after Lackey’s confirmation he’d wait to see the Angels’ offensive plans before re-signing.
  • The Braves paid $60MM for Derek Lowe, though no one else made a comparable offer.  This is a testament to Scott Boras (and perhaps the Braves’ desperation), though Boras has more challenging work ahead in Manny Ramirez and Jason Varitek.
  • The Red Sox have shown interest in Adam Dunn, one rival exec tells Rosenthal.  Rosenthal considers the possibility a longshot – "a square peg in a round hole."  The Sox could always make a midseason deal if their offense isn’t cutting it.
  • A Rangers official put Michael Young’s chances of being with the team on Opening Day at at least 90%.  The Rangers aren’t interested in moving Ian Kinsler to left field and Young to second base.
  • Rosenthal believes Xavier Nady is likely to garner Type A status when he becomes a free agent after the ’09 season, but half of the equation (his 2009 stats) is missing.
  • Jason Isringhausen is considering four teams, and he’d have a shot to close for those clubs.  The Dodgers aren’t terribly interested, while the Cardinals and Tigers are possibilities.
  • Should the Mets sign Andy Pettitte as well as Randy Wolf or Oliver Perez?  One rival exec suggested the idea.
  • The Astros apparently made a three-year, $28.5MM offer to Wolf before pulling it back.  Looks like he’ll be settling for less.
  • Rosenthal says a Rangers trade for Jermaine Dye is "not happening."  They’ll go with Hank Blalock’s left-handed offense rather than sign an aging veteran.  Blalock is headed into a contract year.
  • If Todd Helton has a healthy spring, the Rockies could shop Garrett Atkins.
  • The Red Sox and D’Backs are not close to a deal involving catcher Miguel Montero.  Arizona will need to add a capable backup catcher if they do find a deal for Montero.

Orioles Rumors: Dunn, Wigginton, Sexson

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3:15pm: Roch Kubatko says the Orioles would only consider Adam Dunn as a DH, and he wants to play the outfield.

1:40pm: The latest from Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun (with an assist from Jeff Zrebiec)…

  • The Orioles want a first base candidate who can also play other positions, since they want to use Aubrey Huff at first sometimes.  Ty Wigginton remains on the radar, but the Orioles don’t want to go beyond one year.  The O’s have apparently moved on from the Richie Sexson idea.
  • The Orioles signed former Yankees outfielder Justin Christian to a minor league deal.
  • The O’s finalized their two-year contract with Koji Uehara.

Dunn Looking For Four Years, $56 Million

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ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick talked to an official of a team interested in Adam Dunn.  That official said Dunn’s current asking price is four years, $56MM ($14MM per).  Crasnick says the Braves and Nationals are more focused on trades.

Even in the depressed market Dunn has a case for more than the $30MM Milton Bradley received.  But not significantly more, and Bradley’s deal protects against a first-year injury.  Plus, Dunn’s list of suitors is small.

Dunn Back To Reds Unlikely; Reds Looking At OFs

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The Cincinnati Reds are still looking for outfield help, and a left-handed bat isn’t off the table.

Mark Sheldon of MLB.com wrote that much of the Reds’ search has focused on a right-handed bat, but since the market is drying up, the Reds are willing to look toward the other side of the plate.

“We’re open minded about it,” Reds general manager Walt Jocketty told Sheldon.

One slugger who could be on that list is former Red Adam Dunn, who was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks in August 2008, though Jocketty is pessimistic.

“I doubt it,” Jocketty told Sheldon when asked about the possibility of Dunn returning to Cincinnati. “Especially at the price he’s looking for.”

One name Sheldon listed was right fielder Bobby Abreu, but Jocketty said he hasn’t recently spoken with Abreu’s agent.

Nationals Rumors: Young, Swisher

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Chico Harlan of the Washington Post has a few notes on the Nationals.

  • The Nationals and Rangers have had basic discussions about Michael Young, but Harlan says the Nationals will not be players for him.
  • So far the Nationals haven’t offered enough for Nick Swisher, but at the least he provides leverage to use on the team’s free agent targets.
  • Adam Dunn and Orlando Hudson remain of interest.  Harlan considers recent stories about their high prices to be posturing by the Nationals.

Perrotto’s Latest: Top 20 Remaining Free Agents

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John Perrotto’s latest Every Given Sunday column at Baseball Prospectus takes a look at the top 20 remaining free agents (sorted by WARP3 – Wins Above Replacement Player) and offers destination predictions and top suitors (or lack thereof in some cases) for each one. For those without a BP subscription, here’s a quick summary:

  • Manny Ramirez – Dodgers
  • Orlando Cabrera – Athletics
  • Derek Lowe – Braves/Mets/Cubs
  • Adam Dunn – Nationals
  • Bobby Abreu – Reds
  • Ben Sheets – Rangers
  • Orlando Hudson – Nationals
  • Andy Pettitte – Astros (at less than $10MM)
  • Jason Varitek – Red Sox (at less than $10MM)
  • Ty Wigginton – Astros
  • Ivan Rodriguez – Not much of a market, may have to take a minor-league deal with an invite to Spring Training if he’s not signed soon. Could he end up involuntarily retired, a la Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, and Mike Piazza?
  • Kevin Millar – Orioles
  • Mark Grudzielanek – Padres
  • Braden Looper – Brewers
  • Garret Anderson, Eric Hinske, Ray Durham, Jim Edmonds, Paul Byrd, Odalis Perez – All of them (with the exception of Byrd, who may retire) are drawing little to no interest and may be without a club on Opening Day.

Cafardo’s Latest: Manny, Dunn, Fielder

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Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe has lots of rumors in his latest article:

  • Apparently the Giants were willing to offer Manny Ramirez a four year deal in the form of a one year deal with three option years. No more details are known, except that the Giants remain interested in Manny.
  • Brad Ausmus has had ongoing talks with the Padres and Dodgers, according to Cafardo’s sources. The Red Sox aren’t interested.
  • The Angels, Giants and Mets are possible suitors for Xavier Nady.
  • Cafardo’s heard other clubs talking about the Red Sox and Rockies restarting the Todd Helton for Mike Lowell trade talk, but hasn’t heard anything similar from the Red Sox.
  • At least one of Cafardo’s sources thinks Prince Fielder would make a lot of sense in Boston. Clay Buchholz could be a starting point if these talks were to start.
  • Ben Sheets is becoming a bargain, so the Braves or Rangers could jump in and sign him affordably.
  • Cafardo calls Atlanta an "emerging" destination for Adam Dunn.
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