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Stark On Padres, Jose Guillen, Derrek Lee

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ESPN's Jayson Stark kicks off today's column with a look at which teams' starts he considers reality and illusion.  Beyond that, a look at his hot stove rumblings…

  • One club official who "felt out" the Padres over the winter believes they'll hold on to their top players if they're in contention in July.  As Stark says, the market would look a lot worse without Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell.
  • Stark names six sluggers who "might be in play" this summer: Josh Hamilton, Adam Dunn, Adam LaRoche, Rick Ankiel, Paul Konerko, and Manny Ramirez.  Hamilton and Manny are longer shots, but they'd certainly get the hot stove burning.
  • As for Jose Guillen – executives Stark talked to just aren't interested, despite his .377/.406/.738 start.
  • In search of new stadiums, where could the Rays and A's legitimately threaten to move?  Stark and his sources run through ideas and can't find a viable city.
  • A friend of Cal Ripken's tells Stark "there's a lot of mutual respect" between Ripken and Orioles owner Peter Angelos.  Ripken seeks a difference-making job, rather than just a title.  It doesn't necessarily have to be with the Orioles.
  • The Cubs told Derrek Lee's agent Casey Close they'd prefer to let the season play out before talking extension.  Lee discussed the situation during Spring Training. 
  • Stark's sources consider Brett Anderson's four-year, $12.5MM deal a very team-friendly contract.  To the A's credit, most young pitchers are not willing to give two club options.  Playing devil's advocate –  did the potential cost savings justify committing four years to Anderson after just one year of service?  You can find multiple clubs that do not share Oakland's enthusiasm for locking up good young pitchers.

Revisiting The Manny Ramirez, Jason Bay Trade

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It's been nearly 20 months since the Red Sox, Dodgers, and Pirates completed the three-team blockbuster that sent Manny Ramirez to Los Angeles, Jason Bay to Boston, and four prospects to Pittsburgh. Alex Speier of WEEI.com spoke to Pirates' GM Neal Huntington about the trade, who noted that the book is still out on their end of the deal. 

Here are the highlights, but the whole article is well worth the read…

  • Huntington suggests the Pirates now believe that they had a better offer on the table for Bay than the one they ultimately accepted, though it's not fair to look back using hindsight. The Marlins and Rays were both rumored to be interested at the time. 
  • He also recognizes that he might have received a better package if he waited until the offseason to deal Bay.
  • If the deal had not been made, the Red Sox were unsure about how to proceed with Manny's $20MM club option for 2009, and it was unclear if they would have been willing to risk offering him arbitration to recoup draft pick compensation.
  • They were, however, confident in offering Jason Bay arbitration at the time of the trade.
  • Meanwhile, the two players Pittsburgh received from Boston haven't delivered as expected. Brandon Moss is out of options, and might be put through waivers after hitting .232/.300/.381 since the trade, while Craig Hansen apparently went unclaimed after being designated for assignment. Both players have dealt with injuries.
  • Huntington says that if Andy LaRoche's power comes on, it would be a good trade for them since they acquired six years of him for a year and a half of Bay. If Bryan Morris develops into a middle of the rotation starter, he would consider it a great deal.

Execs Name Best, Worst Moves Of The Offseason

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Recently MLBTR spoke to several MLB executives to gather their nominations for the best and worst moves of the offseason.

Free agent signings that received mention for the best moves: Felipe Lopez, Adrian Beltre, Adam LaRoche, Chone Figgins, Hideki Matsui, and Aroldis Chapman.  Said one exec on Chapman: "He might truly live up to the hype."  It's hard not to praise the Cards for getting Lopez on a one-year, $1MM deal.

Three trades came up as choices for the best moves of the offseason: the Mariners' acquisition of Cliff Lee, the Royals' trade of Mark Teahen, and the Rangers' trade of Kevin Millwood.  One exec noted that the Mariners "didn't trade anyone that can hurt them in the next couple of years" for Lee, while another believed that "trading Lee and Kyle Drabek in the Roy Halladay deal will hurt [the Phillies] in the long run."  The Royals received props for "getting some value for Teahen," while the Rangers' increased payroll flexibility from the Millwood deal was noted.

Nominated for the worst moves: free agent deals for Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, Brandon Lyon, Jason Kendall, Aubrey Huff, Jason Marquis, Randy Wolf, and Garrett Atkins.  All the execs polled mentioned Holliday's seven year, $120MM deal when choosing their worst deals of the winter.  Said one: "The fear that he would sign a one-year deal elsewhere and take his chances a year from now — that just doesn't make sense to me."

Aside from Kendall and Huff, there was a vibe of "like the player, hate the contract" with the panned free agent signings.  One exec felt the Royals downgraded behind the plate with Kendall.  Huff was nominated as a small-scale misstep, in that the exec felt that "Hank Blalock is better and he couldn't get half that salary on a non-roster deal."

The Giants’ Offer To Adam LaRoche

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Adam LaRoche turned down a deal from the Giants, but he tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that it's not the deal everyone thinks he turned down. When LaRoche signed a one-year $6MM deal with the D'Backs, he and his agent were criticized for turning down a two-year $17.5MM deal from the Giants. But LaRoche says their offer wasn't that simple.

"It actually wasn't a two-year deal," he said. "It was two years with three or four year options. It wasn't a two-year $17 or $18MM. It came across that that's what it was, but that wasn't what it was."

LaRoche says he and his agent, Mike Milchin, didn't hear back from the Giants after making a counter-offer. He could face a similar situation next winter if he or the D'Backs decide not to pick up the $7.5MM mutual option on his contract, but says he isn't worried about it.

"I'll play a year and start over, see what happens," LaRoche said.

Discussion: Worst Move Of The Offseason

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We've already talked about the best move of the offseason this evening, so now let's turn the page and discuss the worst move of the winter. Here are some candidates…

  • Dodgers sign Jamey Carroll to a two-year, $3.85MM contract.
  • Mets sign Alex Cora to a one-year, $2MM contract.
  • Adam LaRoche declines a two-year, $17MM offer from the Giants. 
  • Astros sign Brandon Lyon to a three-year, $15MM contract.
  • Giants re-sign Bengie Molina to a one-year, $4.5MM contract.

There are plenty of more bad moves out there, but which one is the biggest head scratcher? 

D-Backs Out Of Sheets Derby, Payroll Stretched Thin

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The Diamondbacks were one of several teams who sent representatives to Ben Sheets' throwing session today, but according to Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic, the Snakes don't have any interest in the free-agent hurler.  Arizona GM Josh Byrnes tells Piecoro that the club is probably finished their winter shopping aside from maybe a bit more pitching that would have to come at a much lower cost than Sheets' estimated $7.5MM price tag.

Even if Arizona had taken a shine to Sheets, the club wouldn't have been able to afford him given Piecoro's news that the Adam LaRoche signing pushed the Snakes' budget to just under the $79MM mark for 2010.  Ergo, if the D-Backs struggle this season and don't contend for a playoff spot, the team is going to lose some money.  This isn't a major problem for Arizona Managing General Partner Ken Kendrick, who tells Piecoro, "we're willing to take that risk. We're not about making money. We're about winning and trying to avoid significant losses." 

LaRoche signed for a reasonable $4.5MM salary for 2010, but considering his notorious hot-and-cold stretches at the plate, D-Backs fans may not look too kindly on LaRoche slumping given his status as the "real difference-maker" (to quote Kendrick) of a player that the team broke the bank for.

Giants Notes: Byrnes, Winn, LaRoche

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Let's take a look at some Giants-related tidbits courtesy of the San Francisco Chronicle's John Shea..

  • Eric Byrnes, who was recently designated for assignment by the D-Backs, told Shea that San Francisco would be the "best fit" for him geographically.  Byrnes grew up a Giants fan and makes his offseason home in the Bay Area.  The 33-year-old outfielder also admitted that he's not in a position to call himself an everyday player.
  • Shea floats ex-Giant Randy Winn as an option for the Mets should they seek someone to fill-in while Carlos Beltran recovers from surgery.
  • Adam LaRoche turned down a two-year, $17MM offer from the Giants to sign with the Arizona, where he may receive as little as $6MM for one year.  LaRoche said that one reason for his decision was that he preferred Chase Field's hitting conditions to AT&T Park.

Odds & Ends: Hairston, Brewers, Reds, Salazar

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Some links for Friday…

Diamondbacks Sign Adam LaRoche

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The Diamondbacks signed Adam LaRoche to a one-year $6MM deal that could keep him in Arizona through the 2011 season. The streaky first baseman makes $4.5MM in 2010. Afterwards, he'll either receive a $1.5MM buyout or agree to exercise a $7.5MM mutual option for 2011.

The D'Backs were not known to be interested in LaRoche and it wasn't apparent that they had the money to sign him, but the move makes sense. It allows the club to play Conor Jackson in left field and give Brandon Allen more minor league seasoning. Eric Byrnes is the odd man out; the D'Backs designated him for assignment today in a move that will likely end his tenure in Arizona.

LaRoche reportedly turned down a two-year, $17.5MM deal from the Giants earlier this offseason, as he was aiming for three years. The 30-year-old earned $7.05MM in '09 and hit .278/.357/.487 with 24 home runs for the Pirates, Braves, and Red Sox. He was a Type B free agent, but the Braves chose not to offer arbitration.

Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette first reported the agreement and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports, SI's Jon Heyman, Frankie Piliere of AOL FanHouse and Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic added detail.

Ben Nicholson-Smith contributed to this post.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Rolen, Sweeney, Twins

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On this date in 1990, the Tigers signed free agent Cecil Fielder after he hit 38 homers as a member of the Hanshin Tigers the year before. Fielder went on to lead the league with 130 HR and 389 RBI over the next three years, landing a five-year, $36MM contract that made him the then-second-highest paid player in baseball history behind Barry Bonds. Believe it or not, Prince is already more than halfway to his father's career total of 319 homers despite having fewer than half as many plate appearances.

Let's see what's being written around the baseball blogosphere…

  • The Phrontiersman goes back in time to see how things would have played out for the Phillies if Scott Rolen signed a contract extension and was never traded away.
  • DRays Bay wonders if Matt Sweeney could take over first base for the Rays if Carlos Pena leaves as a free agent after 2010. Sweeney was acquired in the Scott Kazmir trade.
  • Fack Youk compares Vladimir Guerrero to Hideki Matsui to Nick Johnson, the three biggest DH signings of the offseason.
  • Lookout Landing says the Mariners did just fine to acquire Casey Kotchman, even though Adam LaRoche agreed to a relatively cheap deal yesterday.
  • Meanwhile, Jorge Says No! thinks the Mets may have made a mistake by not signing LaRoche.
  • Nick's Twins Blog wonders if Michael Cuddyer or Joe Nathan could be expendable as Minnesota's estimated payroll will approach nine-figures in 2011.
  • AdamAdkins.net thinks the Tigers will regret signing Jose Valverde.
  • Pinstripes Published takes a look at the market for Johnny Damon, or lack thereof.
  • TurnTwo looks at all the movement going on with the Giants' defensive alignment.

If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.

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