Pirates Exploring Different Outfield Alignments
In yesterday’s spring game, the Pirates tried an outfield alignment of Bryan Reynolds in left, Jack Suwinski in center and Andrew McCutchen in right. Spring Training is a natural time for teams to experiment, but it seems like this is something the club could consider for the regular season as well. “I think that’s something we could see, depending on what we do with ‘Cutch’ in terms of being on the field but I definitely think we could see Jack in center and Bryan in left,” manager Derek Shelton said, per Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. “We saw, and we talked about last year that (Suwinski) became a better outfielder as the season went on at the major-league level. I think we’re going to continue to get a look at that.”
It seems this is something the players are all on board with, as they are all quoted by Gorman as supporting the potential plan. “I’ve talked with them and that’s going to be probably a mix of both, probably a little more left than center, I guess,” Reynolds said. “I think I grade out better in left, anyway, so that’ll be better for everybody. In the past, I’ve been good in left.” Center field is generally considered the most demanding of the three outfield positions, but PNC Park in Pittsburgh is a little unique in that the deepest part is actually in left-center.
Reynolds saw more time in left in 2019 and 2020 before spending most of his time in center over the past two seasons. The defensive metrics are a split on whether Reynolds is correct that he grades out better in left. Ultimate Zone Rating has generally not given him strong marks anywhere, while Outs Above Average thought him to be exactly average in left in 2019-2020 before a +10 in center in 2021 but then a -7 there in 2022. Defensive Runs Saved is the metric that is most aligned with Reynolds’ self assessment. It gave him a +7 in left over his first two seasons but a -19 in center over the past two. All three metrics were in agreement that he was subpar in center last year, with a -14 DRS, -2.6 UZR and -7 OAA.
Reynolds has been frequently the subject of trade rumors over the past few years, as he’s been playing at an All-Star level on a rebuilding team. A deal hasn’t come together yet with the Pirates apparently putting forth a huge asking price in any trade talks. Moving Reynolds from the premier center field position and into a corner potentially decreases his trade value, but with all the metrics souring on his work up the middle in 2022, perhaps there’s sense in moving him to the less-demanding position at least part of the time. Either way, his bat will still play, as he’s hit .281/.361/.481 for his career even with a nightmare showing in the shortened 2020 campaign. That production is 26% above league average by measure of wRC+, and he’s capable of more, producing a 141 wRC+ in 2021.
While Reynolds arguably fits better in left than in center, moving him to left will require Suwinski to be a viable option in center. That’s not a position where he has spent a ton of time, either in the majors or the minors, getting much more action in the corners. He did log 107 innings up the middle in the majors last year and was graded well, including positive grades from all three of DRS, UZR and OAA. Statcast placed his sprint speed in the 84th percentile but his jumps in the 42nd. These are small sample sizes but perhaps the Bucs feel that more reps at the position could lead to him being a viable candidate there, making this spring experiment a worthwhile path to explore.
Another issue for Suwinski will be his bat. He hit 19 home runs in just 372 plate appearances last year but also struck out in 30.6% of his trips to the plate. He’s generally been able to combine power and on-base ability in the minors, even with high strikeout rates, to be an above-average hitter. Perhaps he can keep that up at the big league level, but pitchers will likely be looking for different ways to attack him in his sophomore season and he will need to adjust.
As for McCutchen, he seems to be ticketed for right field, which he calls “the easiest position to play” at PNC Park. He’s the oldest of the trio at 36, but his sprint speed was still in the 90th percentile last year. He’ll be tasked with covering the smallest part of the outfield in Pittsburgh, though he will have to deal with the tall wall in right. “I’ve seen enough baseballs hit off that wall to know what balls may do and know the ones I’ve got to watch out for,” McCutchen said. “I know that when it goes above that fence (and caroms) off that little bit of wall there, I have to make sure I’m far enough away so I can get to it (because) that’s when you see those triples happen. They don’t happen a lot, but they happen. You do your best just to get the ball. It’s pretty simple. I don’t overthink it. I know what I’ve got to do.”
The Bucs have other outfield options on their 40-man, such as Ji Hwan Bae, Connor Joe and Calvin Mitchell and others, though it seems like this alignment with Suwinski heavily involved is at the forefront of their plans. “He’ll be fine doing it,” Reynolds said. “We’ll just work through it in spring, with him communicating in center versus me in center and getting to know each other in the new positions.” McCutchen also voiced his confidence in the plan. “Us having the understanding of who the center fielder is, what a center fielder does, we know that he has priority,” McCutchen said. “So, it’s me letting Jack know, ‘The ball is yours, regardless. When the ball goes up, it’s yours. If the ball is in the gap and I’m iffy on whether I can catch it, you should be catching that ball.’”
Pirates Sign Andrew McCutchen
Andrew McCutchen‘s career has come full circle. The Pirates on Friday formally announced that they’ve re-signed the franchise icon to a one-year contract for the 2023 season. McCutchen will reportedly earn a $5MM salary on the deal.
“We are thrilled to be able to reunite with Andrew,” Pirates owner Bob Nutting said in a statement within today’s press release. “His return just feels right. It is right for our team, for Andrew and his family, for our fans and for the game of baseball. Andrew is a special player and person. It is going to be exciting to again see him take the field wearing 22 in the black and gold.”
It’s a feel-good story for Bucs fans, who’ll surely give the five-time All-Star and 2013 National League MVP a hero’s welcome in his return to PNC Park. The Pirates selected McCutchen, now 36 years old, with the No. 11 overall pick in the 2005 draft. He immediately ranked among the sport’s top overall prospects after a strong post-draft showing in the minors in ’05, and by 2009 he’d reached the Majors and played his way into a fourth-place Rookie of the Year finish in the National League, hitting .286/.365/.471.
That served as a stepping stone into stardom for McCutchen, who’d spend the first nine seasons of his career in black and gold, hitting a combined .291/.379/.487 with 203 home runs, 292 doubles, 44 triples and 171 stolen bases. A true cornerstone player, McCutchen led the Pirates to their three most recent postseason appearances, in 2013, 2014 and 2015 — each a Wild Card berth. Pittsburgh only advanced in one of those three seasons, topping the Reds in a one-game Wild Card showdown in 2013 before falling to the Cardinals in that year’s NLDS.
McCutchen signed an early extension with Pittsburgh — a six-year, $51.5MM contract with a club option for a seventh season. That gave the Bucs some extra club control and cost certainty over a player who was then the face of the franchise, but as is so often the case with the Pirates and other low-payroll clubs, McCutchen surfaced as a trade candidate in the late stages of that contract. Nearly six years after that extension was signed, McCutchen was traded to the Giants in what was an unpopular move at the time but now looks like perhaps the best swap in former GM Neal Huntington’s tenure. In order to acquire the final year of McCutchen’s contract, the Giants parted with right-hander Kyle Crick and the man who eventually replaced McCutchen in the outfield: current center fielder Bryan Reynolds.
Since leaving the Pirates and entering his mid-30s, McCutchen’s production has begun to wane. He proved plenty productive in a 2018 season split between the Giants and Yankees — enough to land a three-year, $50MM contract with the Phillies. The first season of that deal saw continued production early on, but McCutchen suffered a torn ACL that June, missed the remainder of the season, and has since settled in closer to league-average in terms of offensive output. Over the past three seasons, he’s a .234/.325/.417 hitter — about three percent better than league average, by measure of wRC+.
McCutchen spent the 2022 campaign with Milwaukee and scuffled to a career-low .237/.316/.384 batting line in 580 trips to the plate. Even as McCutchen’s bat began to slow down in his post-Pirates days, he remained a potent threat against left-handed pitching, hitting southpaws at a .291/.407/.567 slash from 2019-21. However, that trend also dipped with the Brewers in 2022, as McCutchen turned in a tepid .221/.303/.434 line even when holding the platoon advantage. The Pirates will hope that was more of a BABIP-driven anomaly (.248) than the beginning of a true decline.
McCutchen served as the Brewers’ primary option at designated hitter last season (82 games) but also logged 50 games in the outfield. He hasn’t topped 93 innings of center field work since 2017, his last year with the Pirates, though, and at 36 years old it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll return to logging meaningful time at his former position.
There will naturally be some speculation about the signing of McCutchen and whether it serves as a portent for a subsequent trade of Reynolds, who requested one earlier this offseason due to a sizable gap in extension negotiations with the team. However, logic dictates that there’s no real connection here; McCutchen can’t play center field regularly at this point in his career, and even if Reynolds were traded, the Bucs would surely reallocate much of that playing time to younger outfield options they hope can be part of the team’s core moving forward.
Rather, McCutchen will likely get occasional looks at designated hitter, though with Pittsburgh already acquiring first basemen Ji-Man Choi and Carlos Santana this offseason, one of those two figures to be the main option at DH. McCutchen gives the Pirates’ outfield mix a complementary right-handed bat to pair with lefty-swinging corner options like Jack Suwinski, Cal Mitchell and Canaan Smith-Njigba, but his impact on the decision of whether to trade or retain Reynolds ranges between minimal to nonexistent.
Beyond the contributions he’ll make on the field and the mentorship he’ll provide to several up-and-coming young Pirates, McCutchen will give fans plenty to cheer for in 2023 as he chases down multiple career milestones. He’s just 52 hits shy of reaching 2000 in his career, and he’s only 13 home runs shy of 300. McCutchen slugged 17 home runs last year and hasn’t hit fewer than 13 in a full season’s worth of games in his career to this point, so he’s a good bet to reach both round numbers this year.
The Pirates don’t project as contenders this season, and McCutchen isn’t likely to push them over that edge, but the team has spent more this winter than in recent years. Pittsburgh has acquired Choi (projected $4.35MM salary) and signed free agents Santana ($6.725MM), Rich Hill ($8MM), Austin Hedges ($5MM), Vince Velasquez ($3.15MM) and Jarlin Garcia ($2.5MM). It’s still a modest slate of expenditures by MLB standards, but McCutchen will take them north of $30MM in added payroll this winter. Contrast that with last offseason’s $16.225MM in spending and the $2.5MM total they spent in free agency during the 2020-21 offseason, and the Bucs are at least on an upward trajectory as they look to buttress their young roster with some steady veterans who can raise the team’s floor.
Even with those additions, Pittsburgh’s payroll won’t reach $80MM, so they only deserve so much praise for taking more earnest strides to put a winning product on the field. That said, that low number still creates the possibility for further veteran additions, be it via the free-agent or trade markets.
Regardless, the Pirates should be an improved team in 2023 — due both to contributions from those new acquisitions and to larger, more productive roles from prospects acquired over the course of the rebuild. There’s surely hope that hopeful cornerstone infielders Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz will take steps forward, and the Pirates could plausibly welcome names like Endy Rodriguez, Liover Peguero, Quinn Priester and others to the big leagues for lengthy auditions. The allure of young talent alone gave Pittsburgh fans something to look forward to in 2023, but the return of a beloved franchise figure and one of the best players in recent Pirates adds an extra layer of sentimentality and, hopefully, another productive bat.
Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette first reported the agreement and the terms of the contract.
Mets To Sign Tommy Pham
Jan. 20: Pham has passed his physical, tweets Nightengale. The outfielder will earn a $200K bonus upon reaching 225 plate appearances with the Mets, and he’ll unlock additional $200K bonuses for every 25th plate appearance thereafter, all the way up through 450 plate appearances. With the physical complete, the Mets should announce the deal sooner than later.
Jan. 18, 10:26am: It’s a one-year, $6MM contract for Pham, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds that the contract contains $2MM of available incentives and is expected to be finalized Thursday.
10:08am: The Mets and Pham have agreed to terms on a contract, Martino tweets. The deal is pending a physical.
9:44am: The Mets have an offer on the table to free-agent outfielder Tommy Pham and is optimistic about completing a deal, reports SNY’s Andy Martino. The Mets also made offers to Andrew McCutchen and Adam Duvall, per the report, but McCutchen preferred to go back to his original team in Pittsburgh while Duvall had the opportunity for more playing time in Boston.
Pham, 35 in March, split the 2022 season between Cincinnati and Boston, batting a combined .236/.312/.374 with 17 home runs and eight stolen bases in 622 plate appearances. It was a down season overall, but Pham’s line included a stout .273/.338/.446 batting line against left-handed pitching.
Additionally, Pham’s batted-ball profile also serves as a portent for increased production in the future. His 92.2 mph average exit velocity ranked in the 93rd percentile of all big league hitters, while his 48.2% hard-hit rate ranked in the 89th percentile, per Statcast. Even if bat doesn’t bounce all the way back to the levels those numbers suggest, there’s a good chance he can be a useful platoon option. Also, Pham also still drew favorable rankings for his arm strength in the outfield (74th percentile) and average sprint speed (66th percentile). Defensive metrics panned his glovework on the whole (0 DRS, -6 OAA), but the tools are there for him to rebound in that capacity as well.
From 2015-19, Pham was one of the game’s most underrated outfielders, batting a combined .277/.373/.472 (130 wRC+) with a hefty 12.2% walk rate against a 23.3% strikeout rate. He’s been a slightly below-average hitter overall since that time, but given his speed, arm strength and solid production against lefties, he’s a nice bat to have on the bench.
Pham is mostly limited to left field at this point in his career — he has just 91 innings in center field an seven in right field since 2018 — but he’ll give the Mets some outfield insurance while perhaps serving as a right-handed complement to lefty DH Daniel Vogelbach. That’s especially true if the Mets look to move on from Darin Ruf after a disappointing couple months in Queens following last year’s acquisition at the trade deadline.
While Pham himself might not be a backup option to Brandon Nimmo in center field, adding him to the mix provides the Mets with some additional cover in the event of an outfield injury. For instance, both left fielder Mark Canha and (especially) right fielder Starling Marte have experience in center field, so either could shift to center should Nimmo need a day off or a trip to the IL, with Pham then slotting into left field and Marte/Canha covering the other two outfield slots.
The Mets also have 24-year-old Khalil Lee as a lefty-hitting outfielder who can fill in at all three spots, though he has a minor league option remaining. Pham’s addition creates the possibility of sending Lee to Triple-A Syracuse for regular playing time — a luxury the team may not have previously been able to afford. Previously, the Mets’ only outfielders on the 40-man roster all projected to be on the big league roster as well, so the extra depth fills a clear need.
On top of Pham’s $6MM, the Mets owe a 90% luxury tax of $5.4MM, bringing their total tab for the signing to $11.4MM. New York’s projected bottom-line payroll for the 2023 season jumps to a bit more than $356MM, with about $374MM in luxury-tax considerations on the books. That puts them in well into the top luxury bracket and sets the stage for the Mets to be a third-time payor in the 2024 season, which point they’d owe an even steeper 110% tax on every dollar spent above the top line. Owner Steve Cohen has shown little concern with such penalties, however, and Pham’s luxury hit will be a relative drop in the bucket compared to the sum the Mets were planning to pay Carlos Correa before concerns regarding his medicals scuttled the 12-year deal between the two parties.
NL Central Notes: Cards’ Rotation, McCutchen, Cubs
While the Cardinals are again shaping up nicely to compete for top honors in the National League Central, they’ll be faced with some important decisions a year or so from now. Among their starting rotation, only Steven Matz is signed beyond the 2023 season, with Jordan Montgomery, Adam Wainwright (who will retire), Miles Mikolas and Jack Flaherty all slated for free agency in November.
Replacing four starters in free agency is no easy feat, particularly given the way starting pitchers were priced this winter, and while they do have Dakota Hudson and prospect Matthew Liberatore as options, it should come as little surprise that Derrick Goold of the St Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the team is planning to open discussions over an extension with two starters this spring.
As Goold notes, Mikolas and Montgomery would appear to be the obvious candidates, with Flaherty a possibility as well – although he has dealt with injuries over the past few years. Montgomery, 30 last month, worked to a 3.11 ERA over 11 starts for the Cards after coming over from the Yankees at the deadline last year. He’s been a steady mid-rotation arm for a few years now and agreed to a $10MM salary in his final year before free agency. Mid-rotation arms such as Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon were sought-after commodities in free agency this year, and Montgomery would likely fit into that bracket next winter.
Mikolas, 34, worked to a 3.29 ERA over 202 1/3 innings last season. Another year like that in 2023 would set him up for a nice payday late in his career, so perhaps the the Cardinals could try and get ahead of that and lock up Mikolas for another few seasons.
Here’s some more notes from around the NL Central:
- The Pirates move to bring back franchise icon Andrew McCutchen has been met with positivity around baseball, and Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette sheds some more light on the matter. As it turns out, a return to Pittsburgh seemed unlikely until as recently as New Year’s Day when McCutchen sent a text message to Pirates owner Bob Nutting laying out his desire to return to Pittsburgh to finish his career. As Mackey relays, Nutting then approached general manager Ben Cherington, who then met McCutchen for coffee in Pittsburgh’s northern suburbs to see if a deal could be made.While veteran signings on rebuilding clubs are often done with an eye towards the trade deadline, Mackey reports that it’s more likely McCutchen returns to the Pirates in 2024 than is flipped at the deadline. That’s not to say there’s no chance of a trade, but it does seem like McCutchen is motivated by helping Pittsburgh’s young core return to relevance, and Mackey adds that the 2013 MVP sees similarities in Pittsburgh’s 2009-12 rebuild that wound up in the team going to the playoffs three straight years between 2013-15. The Pirates don’t seem quite ready to return to playoff baseball just yet, but it would make for quite the fairytale if McCutchen were to be part of the next playoff team in Pittsburgh.
- The Cubs have been aggressive in free agency this winter as they look to return to the top of the Central. The team has inked long-term deals with Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly, while also adding the likes of Cody Bellinger on significant deals. The team currently has a bit of wiggle room under the first luxury tax marker, but they’ll surely be approaching it over the next few years as they make more free agent additions and deal with Nico Hoerner‘s arbitration raises. Per a report from Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, owner Tom Ricketts spoke of a strategic approach to the luxury tax as the team moves forward.“There will be times I’m sure in the near future where we’ll go over. But we’ll always keep in mind that there’s a balance there you have to always look to manage. Just like we did a few years ago, we’ll go over, but we have to be careful of how long and by how much,” Ricketts said.The Cubs’ luxury tax payroll currently sits at $215MM (according to Fangraphs’ calculation), with the first threshold coming at $233MM.
Mets Among Teams With Interest In Andrew McCutchen
The Mets have shown interest in veteran outfielder Andrew McCutchen, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). New York joins the Rays and Dodgers as teams known to have checked in regarding the former MVP this offseason.
McCutchen is one of the better right-handed hitting outfielders remaining in free agency. At age 36, he’s no longer the dynamic superstar he was at his peak. Yet the five-time All-Star still has a patient plate approach and decent power. McCutchen connected on 17 home runs while drawing walks in 9.8% of his 580 plate appearances with the Brewers last season. He made hard contact on 40% of his batted balls, around four points higher than the league average.
Overall, his .237/.316/.384 line was right around league average. McCutchen has posted approximately average offensive numbers three years running, although the shape of his production was different last year than in previous seasons. From 2020-21 as a member of the Phillies, he stumbled to a .204/.297/.364 line against right-handed pitching but tattooed southpaws at a .290/.402/.603 clip. His splits were fairly even in 2022. McCutchen improved to .237/.316/.384 against same-handed arms but dropped back to .221/.303/.434 when holding the platoon advantage.
McCutchen is essentially limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter at this stage of his career. He started a pair of games in center last season but that marked his first action up the middle since 2019. He’s played primarily left field of late. Public metrics weren’t especially found of his glovework in Philadelphia, but Defensive Runs Saved credited him as five runs better than the average left fielder over 268 1/3 innings there last season. Milwaukee gave him more run at designated hitter but he’s capable of logging at least part-time corner outfield work.
It’s that role for which the Mets are ostensibly eyeing him. New York has a quality starting trio of Mark Canha, Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte. Nimmo has had a number of injured list stints throughout his career, while both Canha and Marte are into their mid-30’s. Khalil Lee, coming off a .211/.326/.366 showing in Triple-A, is the only other natural outfielder on the 40-man roster. Darin Ruf can also factor into the corner outfield but had a tough second half after being acquired from the Giants. There’s appeal for New York in adding a quality player to the bench. A center field-capable player might be preferable, but Marte at least gives New York some cover as insurance behind Nimmo if the Mets were to add a corner-only bat.
Free Agent Profile: Andrew McCutchen
A busy month of December has seen the free agent cupboard mostly cleared out. Yet as we begin 2023 there are still a few interesting options on the open market for teams looking for upgrades heading into the new season. Of course, many teams will look to the trade market over the next month or two – particularly if they’re after impact options – but good deals can still be found in free agency.
One such player is a former MVP, who remains a threat at the plate and is well-regarded as a veteran presence in the clubhouse. Andrew McCutchen may not be the same player that went to five-straight All Star games with the Pirates, but he could still help a lot of teams. There was a report in early December that the Rays and Dodgers had interest in McCutchen, but it’s been quiet since. The Dodgers have since signed J.D. Martinez, which may rule them out, but the Rays could still feasibly have a spot for him.
McCutchen, 36, spent the past season with the Brewers on a one-year, $8MM deal. They’d signed him on the back of three years in Philadelphia, which culminated in McCutchen hitting .222/.334/.444 with 27 home runs over 574 plate appearances. It was a solid enough season, but what perhaps got Milwaukee’s attention was the way in which McCutchen torched left-handed pitching in 2021, slashing .293/.405/.622 in 195 plate appearances against southpaws. It was particularly pronounced in 2021, but McCutchen’s splits have favored hitting against left-handers over his career.
Unfortunately for the Brewers, it wasn’t the case in 2022. McCutchen would hit just .221/.303/.435 against left-handers in Milwaukee, contributing to an overall line of .237/.316/.384 overall line of 580 plate appearances. While his walk and strikeout rates have trended in the wrong direction in recent times, they were still reasonable marks, as he struck out 21.4% of the time against a 9.8% walk rate. That was good for a wRC+ of 98, a couple of ticks below the league average but the first time it had dipped below 100 in his career. He did enjoy a 262 plate appearance tear in the middle of the summer, where he crushed 11 home runs and hit at an .868 OPS. Of course, the fact that his overall season mark was well below that suggests there were some very lean runs in there as well.
Perhaps the biggest concern from McCutchen’s season was the drop in power. He slugged 27 home runs a year prior with the Phillies, but hit just 17 last season. American Family Field in Milwaukee is generally less favorable to home run hitters than Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, but it was still a significant drop in long balls. In McCutchen’s defense, his exit velocity and HardHit% were both roughly the same as a year earlier, so he’s still making plenty of solid contact.
On the defensive side of things, McCutchen has spent most of his time in the DH spot in recent years, but can still play the outfield, and enjoyed a bit of success there in 2022. He was worth 5 Defensive Runs Saved in a small sample of 268 1/3 innings, while he also spent a small amount of time in right and center. He did make 82 appearances in the DH spot and his days of being an everyday outfielder are probably over, but he’s by no means a liability in the field and his numbers in 2022 could encourage a new team to give him a larger workload in the field in 2023.
McCutchen will likely sign another one-year deal, quite possibly in the same range as the $8MM salary he took home in 2022. At this stage of free agency, most of the players available have some flaws, but McCutchen could still work as a solid option for a number of teams. He still has ~20 home run power, draws walks at a bit above the league average rate and doesn’t strike out too often. While he’s not likely to be a team’s everyday outfielder, he could shift around the corner outfield spots, making DH appearances and allowing teams to spell their starting outfielders on a regular basis. Further to that, McCutchen’s got a good clubhouse reputation and could perhaps work on a contending team with a slightly younger roster. While he’s unlikely to be a difference maker at this point, teams could do worse than bringing in the veteran to deepen their roster for the upcoming season.
Dodgers, Rays Interested In Andrew McCutchen
The Dodgers and Rays are among the teams with interest in free agent outfielder/designated hitter Andrew McCutchen, tweets ESPN’s Buster Olney. As Olney points out, McCutchen could very well topple a couple of career milestones in 2023, as he’s 52 hits shy of 2000 and 13 long balls away from the 300 mark.
McCutchen, 36, spent the 2022 season with the Brewers, for whom he slashed at a .237/.316/.384 pace through 580 trips to the plate. It was an uneven season for the 2013 NL MVP, as he stumbled out of the gates with a poor two-month stretch before catching fire in June and ultimately wilting again in the season’s final seven to eight weeks.
McCutchen’s run early in the summer at least showed that there’s still life in his bat — inconsistent as the production may be. The endpoints here are arbitrary, and any player can look better when focusing only on his hottest stretch of the season, but for a period of 262 plate appearances beginning on June 5, McCutchen mashed at a .288/.370/.498 pace, slugging 11 homers and 15 doubles along the way. Of course, it’s only fair to also point out that said hot streak was preceded by an absolutely frigid spell in which he collected just one hit in a span of 39 trips to the plate.
The peaks and valleys of McCutchen’s 2022 season resulted in a 98 wRC+ and 99 OPS+, suggesting that he was just barely shy of average at the plate for the season as a whole. Part of the downturn in production for McCutchen, who batted a combined .237/.343/.444 as a Phillie from 2019-21 (109 wRC+), was that his longstanding production against southpaws evaporated in 2022. McCutchen is career .300 hitter with a .936 OPS and 154 wRC+ against lefties, even including last year’s struggles, but this past season’s .221/.303/.434 slash when holding the platoon advantage was miles shy of his career standard.
On the defensive side of the coin, McCutchen played just 434 innings in the outfield, most coming in left — although the Brewers gave him 13 innings in center and 153 in right. Defensive Runs Saved (4), Ultimate Zone Rating (1.8) and Outs Above Average (0) all thought he was at least serviceable, if not a net positive in his limited work with the glove. However, McCutchen spent 82 games as Milwaukee’s designated hitter, too. It’s possible another team would view him as a viable option to log a larger workload in the outfield, but a return to his days of pllaying 1300-1400 innings in the outfield seems like a reach, given his age and recent usage.
In Los Angeles, McCutchen could give the Dodgers a right-handed complement to lefty-swinging 25-year-old James Outman, who had a huge season in the upper minors and also impressed in a tiny MLB debut (16 plate appearances). Tampa Bay is more set in the outfield but could still use McCutchen as a right-handed option off the bench, mixing him in for occasional work in the outfield corners and at designated hitter. It’s worth noting that McCutchen is a native of Fort Meade, Fla. and attended Fort Meade High School — about 75 miles from the Rays’ Tropicana Field.
McCutchen played the 2022 season on a one-year, $8.5MM contract, and it seems quite likely that he’ll be ticketed for another one-year deal wherever he lands — be it with the Dodgers, Rays or another team.
16 Impending Free Agents Off To Slow Starts At The Plate
The Padres cut ties with Robinson Cano this morning, just as the Mets did before them. It was a tougher decision for the Mets, given the financial obligation they have toward Cano through the 2023 season. However, his lack of production and the presence of younger, better options forced the hand of both parties.
We’re coming up on a third of the way through the 2022 season, and it’ll become increasingly difficult for teams with struggling veterans in the Cano mold to continue trotting them out there. That’s especially true of players who are impending free agents. While fans can (and do) disagree with the thinking, a player like Aaron Hicks, whom the Yankees owe $30.5MM from 2023-25, will get a longer leash than an impending free agent due to that multi-year commitment. So while there are plenty of struggling veterans on long-term deals, those with the thinnest grasp on their current roster spots are those who’ll be off the books at season’s end anyhow.
With that in mind, here’s a look at some names to watch and, when applicable, some of the names behind them who could aid in pushing them out the door (all stats entering Thursday’s play):
Carlos Santana, Royals: I’m not sure anyone other than the Royals’ front office understands the thinking behind continuing to trot Santana out to the field at this point. The 36-year-old is hitting .161/.293/.250 through 147 plate appearances, and it’s not as though that enormous slump is an entirely new development. Santana hit just .214/.319/.342 while playing in 158 of 162 games for the Royals last year and .199/.340/.350 in Cleveland during the shortened 2020 season.
Santana’s very presence on the Royals is due to the team’s effort to return to win-now mode after a rebuild focused on drafting college arms. He signed a two-year, $17.5MM contract heading into the 2021 season but hasn’t been able to bounce back to the form that long made him one of the game’s biggest on-base threats and most underrated offensive performers.
Signing Santana might’ve been a “win-now” move, but it’s hard to argue that continuing to run him out there is in the Royals’ best interest. That’s doubly true with top prospects Nick Pratto and Vinnie Pasquantino mashing in Triple-A Omaha. Both are in the same first base/designated hitter mold as Santana, and both Pratto (55) and Pasquantino (61) rank prominently in Baseball America’s updated Top 100 prospect rankings. Pratto got off to a slow start but is hitting .246/.392/.483 over his past 148 plate appearances. Pasquantino burst out of the gates and hasn’t slowed down; he’s hitting .298/.392/.667 with 15 home runs in 204 plate appearances.
The Royals owe Santana the balance of his $10.5MM salary whether he’s on the roster or not, but he’ll start racking up incentives when he reaches 300 plate appearances.
Joey Gallo, Yankees: Gallo was one of the Yankees’ biggest trade-deadline additions in recent years, but he’s never found his footing in the Bronx. His status as a three-true-outcomes player is well-documented, but he’s trended more aggressively toward the least-desirable of those outcomes since donning pinstripes. Gallo has fanned in 38% of his plate appearances as a Yankee while seeing both his power and his walk rate dip. Since the Yankees acquired him, he’s batting .167/.295/.370.
Even with the short porch in right field, Gallo has only five home runs through 141 plate appearances this season. He’s also seen his average exit velocity, launch angle and barrel rate drop in 2022. Gallo is still making loads of hard contact when he hits the ball in the air, per Statcast, and perhaps that’s helping to keep him both in the lineup and on the roster. New York isn’t getting any real offense from Hicks, Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Kyle Higashioka, however. Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson are once again on the injured list. Anthony Rizzo had a massive April but is batting just .162/.274/.303 in his past 117 plate appearances. The Yankees’ AL East lead has begun to shrink, as the Jays have rattled off eight straight wins, and they can’t realistically count on Aaron Judge to carry the offense all season long.
Gallo doesn’t have a high-end outfield prospect breathing down his neck, but if he can’t get things going at the plate, the calls for change are only going to grow louder. He’s earning $10.275MM in his final arbitration season before free agency, and another club might view him as a change-of-scenery candidate with the hopes that he’ll be the position-player equivalent of Sonny Gray and thrive following a rocky stint in the Bronx.
Adam Duvall, Braves: Like Gallo, Duvall’s skill set and offensive profile were well established when the Braves opted to retain him via arbitration. He was coming off a 38-homer campaign, so there was never much doubt he’d be tendered a contract, but Duvall’s brand of huge power/bottom-of-the-scale OBP always left him with a pretty low floor should the power ever evaporate.
That’s been the case in 2022, as Duvall still isn’t walking or hitting for average, and he’s only slugged two homers on the season. Paired with a career-worst 31.9% strikeout rate, those troubling trends have resulted in a .191/.257/.272 slash for Duvall, who has also already been tasked with playing more center field in 2022 than he had in his entire career to date.
Atlanta has already called up Michael Harris II, one of the sport’s fastest-rising outfield talents, and former top prospect Drew Waters is at least putting together respectable, if unexciting results in Triple-A. The Braves have also tinkered with catcher William Contreras in the outfield. Duvall has been MLB’s second-worst qualified hitter, by measure of wRC+, and it’s fair to wonder how long the leash will be.
Miguel Sano, Twins: Sano isn’t technically a free agent at season’s end, but barring a Herculean push to finish the season, it’s nearly impossible to fathom the Twins picking up a $14MM option on him. To Sano’s credit, he hit quite well from June through season’s end (.251/.330/.503, 21 homers, 21 doubles in 373 plate appearances), but he looked absolutely lost at the plate in 2022 before landing on the injured list due to a torn meniscus. Sano hit just .093/.231/.148 in 65 plate appearances.
When Sano does return, he’ll come back to a retooled roster that has seen versatile Luis Arraez rake while picking up regular at-bats at first base. Former No. 1 pick Royce Lewis is getting looks at third base and in left field — though Lewis is on the 10-day IL himself now — and top outfield/first base prospect Alex Kirilloff is hitting well in Triple-A following his return from a wrist injury.
The Twins can keep Sano in Triple-A for 20 days on rehab assignment when he’s ready, and they may want to do just that to give him a chance to show he can recapture some of his late 2021 form. But the clock on Sano’s three-year, $30MM deal is running out, and the first-place Twins have plenty of options to fill out the lineup. None of them have Sano’s raw power — almost no one in MLB does — but the big man’s ongoing contact issues tend to lead to protracted slumps like the one he slogged through earlier this year. If he can’t turn it around quickly upon his return, it’d be difficult to justify playing him over Arraez, Kirilloff and others.
Enrique Hernandez & Jackie Bradley Jr., Red Sox: Hernandez was a revelation in 2021 when he smacked 20 homers, hit .250/.337/.449, and delivered all-world defense in center field. But as good as year one of his $14MM contract was, the second and final campaign of that deal has been nightmarish. Hernandez is hitting .203/.269/.340 with a career-low hard-hit rate and exit velocity. He’s still playing great defense in center and helping shoulder the second base workload, but the offensive deficiency is glaring.
That’s also somewhat true of Bradley Jr., who returned to Boston after one ill-fated season in Milwaukee. To Bradley’s credit, he has actually picked up the pace quite a bit, hitting .291/.328/.491 since mid-May, but that surge still only brings his overall season line to .227/.284/.353. If Bradley can sustain some of this production, he’ll surely hang onto his roster spot, but it’s hard not to look at young Jarren Duran‘s .309/.391/.523 output in Triple-A and start thinking of ways to insert him into the big league lineup. Duran struggled in his debut last year but is still a touted young prospect whom the Sox envision as a long-term building block.
Hernandez is earning $8MM this season. Bradley is on a $9.5MM salary and is still owed an $8MM buyout on a mutual option for the 2023 season.
Yuli Gurriel, Martin Maldonado & Jason Castro, Astros: Gurriel won a batting title and looked like one of the game’s best pure hitters in 2021, but he’s started his 2022 season with a woeful .223/.261/.361 performance through 176 plate appearances. His strikeout rate is up about four percentage points, while his walk rate has halved and his hard-contact numbers have plummeted. Gurriel is also chasing more pitches off the plate (36.4% in 2022, 29.8% in 2021) and making contact on pitches out of the zone at a far lower rate (74.5% in 2022, 81.9% in 2021).
Houston’s catchers, meanwhile, have been the least-productive in baseball. Maldonado has never been much of a hitter but is batting only .133/.208/.239 this season. Castro hasn’t even been able to match that, batting .104/.228/.146. If catching prospect Korey Lee weren’t enduring immense struggles of his own in Triple-A, a change might’ve already been made.
It seems unlikely that the Astros would cut bait on Gurriel, who’s been a prominent presence and one of the team’s most productive hitters since signing more than a half-decade ago. A reduced role is something they’ll have to consider if he can’t right the ship, however. The catchers seem far more vulnerable, and there figure to be some prominent names available on the trade market (Willson Contreras, most notably). That Houston is leading the AL West by 5.5 games despite having the least-productive catchers (29 wRC+) and 29th-ranked offensive output from its first basemen (74 wRC+) is both a testament to their pitching and indictment on the play of their divisional opponents thus far.
Gurriel is being paid $8MM in 2022, while Maldonado is earning a $5MM salary and Castro is at $3.5MM.
Andrew McCutchen, Brewers: Milwaukee added McCutchen on a one-year, $8MM contract this offseason with the idea of installing him as their primary designated hitter. McCutchen tormented the Brewers during his early years with the Pirates, which included an NL MVP win, but he’s hitting .214/.263/.312 to begin his tenure in Milwaukee. Even McCutchen’s typically outstanding production against lefties has gone up in smoke this year, as he’s managed a .196/.224/.391 slash against them.
Despite McCutchen’s ineffectiveness, the Brewers are leading the Majors in homers (70) and sit fifth in total runs scored (238). But if McCutchen, who’s hitless in six straight and has been 73% worse than average at the plate since a return from the Covid list (27 wRC+ in 57 plate appearances), can’t begin to show some signs of life, the Brewers could be on the lookout for some offensive help as the Aug. 2 trade deadline draws nearer.
Robbie Grossman & Tucker Barnhart, Tigers: Between Grossman, Austin Meadows and Victor Reyes, the Tigers have an entire outfield on the injured list. Underwhelming play from young options like Daz Cameron, Akil Baddoo and Derek Hill will probably extend Grossman’s leash, but he was hitting a career-worst .199/.311/.241 in 167 plate appearances prior to landing on the IL due to ongoing neck soreness. Grossman has a solid track record, but the Tigers will also want to get a look at top prospect Riley Greene soon, and they’re giving Kody Clemens an opportunity after a nice start down in Toledo.
Behind the plate, the Tigers are probably content with Barnhart’s glovework and leadership. There was talk of a potential extension after he was acquired, but a .229/.263/.257 start might have tempered that. Backup Eric Haase isn’t hitting enough to force a change, and the Tigers’ Triple-A catchers are journeymen Dustin Garneau and Ryan Lavarnway. They have a well-regarded prospect at Double-A in Dillon Dingler, but Barnhart shouldn’t be in imminent danger of losing his spot at this time.
Maikel Franco, Nationals: Franco is probably only in this everyday role because Carter Kieboom suffered an elbow injury that eventually required Tommy John surgery, but he hasn’t done much with his latest opportunity. The former Phillies, Royals and Orioles third baseman is hitting .258/.284/.374 (82 wRC+) through 208 plate appearances. The Nats have an ultra-thin farm system without much in the way of third base options in the upper minors, and they’re clearly not winning anything this year anyhow. That might keep Franco safe, but if an even semi-interesting option presents itself on the waiver wire, there’s little reason not to take a look.
Corey Dickerson, Cardinals: Prior to the 2022 season, Dickerson had never been worse than five percent below-average with the bat in any full year (by wRC+). That’s all but certain to change now, as the typically steady lefty has posted an uncharacteristic .183/.238/.215 slash in 101 plate appearances. For a lifetime .283/.327/.488 hitter who was coming off a solid 2021 campaign, it’s a rather astonishing swoon.
Dickerson has been in a platoon with Albert Pujols at DH for the most part, logging only 110 innings on defense in the outfield corners recently due to injuries elsewhere on the roster. He’s also only on a one-year, $5MM contract, so if he can’t find his swing in the near future, it’s easy to see the Cards giving more at-bats to Pujols’ long-shot chase for 700 home runs and to young standout Juan Yepez. Dickerson is safe for now with both Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson on the injured list, but he needs a hot streak sooner than later.
Mike Zunino, Rays: Zunino’s career-high 33 home runs from a year ago feel like a distant memory, as he’s off to a .147/.193/.294 start in 109 plate appearances in 2022. He’s still drawing excellent marks for his defensive contributions, which the Rays value heavily, but Zunino isn’t even hitting against lefties, whom he’s handled well throughout his career — particularly in recent seasons.
Backup Francisco Mejia isn’t hitting much himself, going just 6-for-42 without a walk over the past month or so. Were he producing at the plate, it’d be more tempting for Tampa Bay to significantly reduce Zunino’s playing time. The Rays do have 25-year-old Rene Pinto mashing in Triple-A, and he’s made his big league debut already this year. As with the Astros, however, the Rays are in firm win-now mode and entered the season with World Series aspirations. If the in-house options aren’t performing up to par, the trade market beckons.
Austin Hedges, Guardians: Hedges has never hit and has always been one of the game’s premier defensive players, so his 2022 season is nothing new. Still, a .155/.223/.282 output from your primary catcher is just difficult to stomach, no matter how strong the defense is. Veteran backup Luke Maile has hit well in a tiny sample of 35 plate appearances, but he’s a career .208/.264/.317 hitter himself.
Prospect Bryan Lavastida got a brief MLB cup of coffee in April and is hitting .225/.330/.360 so far in Triple-A. His performance will bear monitoring, because if the Guardians are intent on pulling into the playoff picture, Hedges’ production might be too light to overlook. And if they end up selling at the deadline, Hedges could draw interest from a team seeking a glove-first backup option — which could open a door for Lavastida.
Brewers Place Andrew McCutchen On COVID List
4:34PM: McCutchen did test positive for the coronavirus, manager Craig Counsell told MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and other reporters.
4:18PM: The Brewers have placed outfielder Andrew McCutchen on the COVID-related injury list. Utilityman Mike Brosseau has been called up from Triple-A while McCutchen is sidelined.
It isn’t yet known if McCutchen has tested positive for COVID-19 or if his placement is merely precautionary due to symptoms or a close-contact situation. If the latter, the veteran outfielder could be back in Milwaukee’s lineup as early as tomorrow. If McCutchen has tested positive, he’ll miss at least 10 days unless he can deliver two negative tests, go at least 24 hours without a fever, and get approved by a panel of three physicians (a team doctor, a league-approved doctor, and a players’ union-approved doctor).
After signing a one-year, $8.5MM free agent deal to join the Brew Crew, McCutchen has yet to really get going, hitting a modest .240/.291/.350 with two home runs over his first 110 plate appearances in a Brewers uniform. McCutchen has mostly worked as the designated hitter, so Milwaukee is likely to rotate several regulars through the DH spot in his absence, with Brosseau, Tyrone Taylor, and Jace Peterson filling holes around the diamond or getting some DH time themselves.
Brewers Sign Andrew McCutchen
MARCH 16: It’s a one-year, $8.5MM pact, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.
MARCH 14: Outfielder Andrew McCutchen is in agreement on a deal with the Brewers, reports Daniel Álvarez Montes of El ExtraBase (on Twitter). Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic had reported this afternoon the sides were in discussions.
McCutchen, 35, has 13 MLB seasons under his belt at this point, having broken into the league as a Pirate in 2009. From that season to 2019, he posted a wRC+ of at least 120 in each season except for a slight dip to 105 in 2016. In 2013, he hit 21 home runs, stole 27 bases and put up an incredible line of .317/404/.508, wRC+ of 156. Combined with his excellent center field defense, he was worth an incredible 8.1 fWAR on the year, winning National League MVP and helping the Pirates make the postseason for the first time since 1992.
In 2018, he had one year remaining on the extension he signed with the Pirates back in 2012. The Bucs sent him to the Giants in exchange for Bryan Reynolds, Kyle Crick and international bonus money. The Giants, in turn, sent McCutchen to the Yankees at the August waiver deadline. Reaching free agency for the first time, he signed a three-year, $50MM deal with the Phillies prior to the 2019 season.
His production has naturally declined somewhat over the years, with his elite center field defense gradually becoming subpar left field defense. He hasn’t reached double-digit steals since 2018. However, he’s still plenty useful with the bat, particularly against left-handed pitching. Over the past two seasons, he’s hit 37 home runs and slashed .232/.331/.441, wRC+ of 106. But when he has the platoon advantage, his line jumps up to .290/.402/.603, wRC+ of 164.
For the Brewers, they went 95-67 last year and won the NL Central, despite a fairly tepid offense. The batting line for the entire team was .233/.317/.396, adding up to a wRC+ of just 91, ranking them 23rd out of the 30 teams in the league. Their moves this offseason have largely been about trying to complement their superb pitching with some increased firepower in the lineup. To that end, they traded for Hunter Renfroe and Mike Brosseau before the lockout, and have now added McCutchen into the mix as well.
McCutchen will join Renfroe in an outfield group that also includes Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain and Tyrone Taylor. That’s a bit of a crowded mix, but with the recent implementation of the designated hitter in the National League, they should be able to spread at-bats around to whichever part of this group needs a day off their feet. McCutchen and Cain are both 35 years old, with Cain turning 36 in less than a month, making them particularly good fits for some time in the DH slot, in order to keep them healthy and in the lineup throughout the season.
However manager Craig Counsell decides to construct the lineup, it seems like it will be capable of more firepower than last year’s version, as they attempt to defend their division title and make the postseason for a fifth consecutive season.