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Rangers Have Shown Interest In Andrew McCutchen

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The Rangers have reached out to the Pirates about a potential Andrew McCutchen trade, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com, but the Bucs aren’t open to such scenarios at this time. As Morosi observes, the Rangers have a deep lineup but have received poor production from the designated hitter spot in the order. The veteran McCutchen, hitting .271/.394/.431 with nine homers and nine steals on the season, would clearly represent a boost.

That said, there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of a potential McCutchen trade coming together. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wrote at the time of McCutchen’s reunion in with the Pirates that the franchise icon returned to Pittsburgh with the intent of finishing out his career there; the Pirates didn’t make the signing with the intent of flipping him at the deadline, and Mackey reported in January that the two parties even discussed McCutchen’s desire to stay put in Pittsburgh while negotiating the deal. McCutchen told Mackey exactly one month ago that he wants to win in Pittsburgh and is not interest in playing elsewhere. “I don’t want to continue my career on another team,” McCutchen said on May 26.

It’s certainly possible that if the Pirates are buried in the standings as the deadline looms, McCutchen could have a change of heart and inform the front office he’d like to be moved to a contender. That seems unlikely based on his recent comments, however. And, even after their recent freefall, the Pirates are only five and a half games back in a dismal NL Central division.

That relative proximity to contending in the division matters, too. It was barely more than a week ago that Pirates president Travis Williams publicly indicated that the team’s hope was to return to the postseason as soon as this year. If the Bucs find themselves with a shot at doing so in the run-up to the trade deadline, Williams noted that GM Ben Cherington would have ownership support to add pieces, even if it meant further boosting the payroll. The Pirates weren’t quite so far into their staggering 1-12 swoon at that point, but again, the feeble context of their division could yet leave them with a realistic chance at a playoff berth — particularly with more than a month until the deadline.

All of that context notwithstanding, it’s at least of some note that the Rangers are perusing the market for potential upgrades. Interest in McCutchen is only logical for them. He’s an accomplished veteran hitter who’s well liked and who has played under current skipper Bruce Bochy. It stands to reason that Bochy enjoyed having McCutchen in the lineup and in the clubhouse during the outfielder’s brief time with the Giants.

Further, as Morosi rightly points out, the Rangers simply haven’t gotten much out of the DH spot in the lineup this year. Texas designated hitters are batting .223/.313/.377 on the season. The resulting 94 wRC+ ranks 19th in the Majors. That production (or lack thereof) has come from a combination of 10 players. Robbie Grossman leads the Rangers with 88 plate appearances as their DH, and he’s hit extremely well in that time. Grossman, though, is also seeing regular time in the outfield. The Rangers have cycled him, Brad Miller, Mitch Garver, Ezequiel Duran, Corey Seager, Jonah Heim, Adolis Garcia, Josh H. Smith and Sam Huff through the DH spot this year, ostensibly using it more as a means of affording occasional rest to regulars rather than dedicating one slugger to the position.

Acquiring any other full-time DH would mark a departure from that strategy. McCutchen is just one of several options to fill that role — seemingly not even a likely one — and since it’s the DH spot in question, the position of a potential trade target could be largely immaterial.

Broadly speaking, it’s still early in the summer for trades of significance to come together. Modern front offices tend to wait until the final few days before the deadline to act with much aggression, and the expansion of the playoff field seems like it’ll only further fuel that trait. Only three teams in baseball currently find themselves facing a deficit of nine games or greater in the postseason hunt: the Royals, A’s and Rockies. And while those teams surely know the direction they’ll take at the deadline, even they might prefer to wait and see if there are more motivated buyers at the deadline. Many teams — the Pirates included — are currently on the fence about their deadline trajectory but might be more willing to part with young talent closer to Aug. 1.

Five Bats Improving Their Stock Ahead Of Free Agency

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With the midpoint of the 2023 regular season fast approaching, the 2023-24 free agent class is beginning to solidify. The coming class has long been considered one deep in pitching but light on potentially impactful hitters. While that evaluation has mostly held up throughout the first half of the season, a handful of surprising hitters are on track for a healthy payday this winter, should their performance hold up throughout the rest of the year.

Each of these players has appeared primarily as a DH in 2023, meaning they would offer prospective suitors little in the way of defensive value. Still, each could find himself among the top options for teams looking to add thump to their lineup without breaking the bank for the likes of Shohei Ohtani or Matt Chapman. Let’s take a look at five hitters who are helping to transform the complexion of the coming class of free agent hitters, in ascending order based on their wRC+ in 2023:

Justin Turner, Red Sox (121 wRC+):

After nine seasons with the Dodgers, the club’s longest tenured hitter departed Los Angeles over the offseason, eventually landing with the Red Sox on a complex two-year deal with an opt-out following the 2023 campaign. Despite concerns that the veteran infielder was headed for a downturn in terms of production as he entered his late thirties, Turner has managed to stave off father time through his first 67 games in Boston, slashing .278/.356/.451 across 289 plate appearances.

That quality slash line comes with excellent peripheral numbers, as well: his 14.5% strikeout rate remains elite, and his 9.7% walk rate is well above league average in its own right. His chase rate has actually improved since last season, as his 65th percentile rank in 2022 has leapt to the 80th percentile in 2023. Those improvements leave Turner with a .363 xwOBA that would be his best in a 162 game season since 2019. While there’s some cause for concern about the veteran’s power production going forward, as his barrel rate has dipped from 8% last season to just 6% in the current campaign, Turner seems all but certain to beat the $6.7MM he’d be leaving on the table by returning to the open market this offseason as long as he stays healthy and avoids a significant downturn in production in the second half.

Andrew McCutchen, Pirates (122 wRC+):

After posting the first below-average offensive season of his career (98 wRC+) with the Brewers in 2022, McCutchen decided to return to Pittsburgh, where the veteran outfielder was drafted in the first round of the 2005 draft, played for nine seasons, and earned an MVP award. He and the Pirates agreed to a one-year, $5MM deal that has worked out splendidly for both sides: McCutchen has slashed .262/.379/.424 across 256 plate appearances in his age-36 season while recording his 2,000th hit in a Pirates uniform as the club has bucked expectations in the first half of the season, posting a 34-36 record that leaves them just 2.5 games out of first place in the NL Central.

When McCutchen returns to free agency following the 2023 campaign, the decorated veteran figures to have recorded his 300th home run and 400th double in addition to his aforementioned 2,000th hit. On top of those career milestones, McCutchen has experienced nothing short of a career renaissance in returning to Pittsburgh. His 19.5% strikeout rate is the lowest its been since he left Pittsburgh following the 2017 season, while his 16% walk rate ranks sixth among all qualified hitters. His chase rate is similarly elite, ranking in the 95th percentile of qualifying hitters. Though he’s appeared in the outfield just eight times this season, McCutchen’s resurgence in 2023 seems all but guaranteed to allow him to continue his career into 2024 and beyond, whether that be with the Pirates or elsewhere.

J.D. Martinez, Dodgers (131 wRC+):

While the previous two veterans on this list have found success by combining roughly average power with elite plate discipline, Martinez has largely done the opposite throughout his career. Once among the league’s most fearsome sluggers as he challenged for a Triple Crown in the AL back in 2018 en route to a 4th place finish in MVP voting, Martinez’s final seasons in Boston saw the slugger’s production decline, as he posted a wRC+ of 116 from 2020-22 with an ISO of just .199 after posting marks .228 or higher in every season from 2014-2019.

After signing with the Dodgers on a one-year deal worth $10MM, Martinez seems to have rediscovered his power stroke in 2023. He’s already slammed 16 home runs in 55 games this season, matching the total he managed across 139 games in 2022. That being said, the renewed power has come at the cost of plate discipline: Martinez’s 5.6% walk rate would be his lowest over a full season since 2013, while his 29.9% strikeout rate would be the highest of his entire career. Still, it’s hard to argue with the results, as Martinez’s current wRC+ and xWOBA would both be his best since the aforementioned 2019 season if maintained over a full season while his ISO leads the majors among qualified hitters. In his return to free agency this offseason, Martinez figures to offer elite power production out of the DH spot, even entering his age-36 campaign.

Joc Pederson, Giants (149 wRC+):

The Giants raised some eyebrows this past offseason by extending Pederson a Qualifying Offer after a phenomenal 2022 campaign, but the lefty-swinging slugger has quieted doubters by improving on last season’s performance in 137 plate appearances in 2023. While his .237 ISO has dipped slightly as compared to last season’s .247 mark, Pederson has more than made up for it by raising his walk rate from an above-average 9.7% clip in 2022 to a whopping 14.6% this season as his 21.2% strikeout rate in 2023 would be his lowest since 2018.

What’s more, unlike the three veterans we’ve discussed to this point, Pederson will be just 31 years old on Opening Day 2024, making him a safer bet to stave off age-related decline than any of Turner, McCutchen, and Martinez. That being said, Pederson is not without flaws. He sports a worrisome platoon split, with just a .626 OPS against lefties in his career, and has largely been platoon-protected during his time with San Francisco. What’s more, he’s struggled to stay healthy this year, with two stints on the injured list already in the young 2023 campaign. Despite those flaws, though, Pederson’s lefty power figures to be represent one of the more impactful bats available via free agency this offseason.

Jorge Soler, Marlins (150 wRC+):

After struggling to a below-average .207/.295/.400 slash line in the first year of his three-year, $36MM pact with the Marlins last season, Soler has exploded in 2023 as one of the top power threats in the majors. His .298 ISO ranks fifth among all qualified major leaguers, behind only Martinez, Ohtani, Pete Alonso, and Yordan Alvarez. He’s already clobbered 20 home runs in just 282 plate appearances this season, matching the pace of his 48-homer campaign with the Royals in 2019. Soler has paired that elite power production with an elite 12.8% walk rate that would be a career best over a full season. While he’s still striking out at an elevated 24.1% clip, that figure is still a marked improvement over last season, during which he punched out in 29.4% of his plate appearances.

Like Pederson, Soler is in the midst of his age-31 season, meaning he could be an attractive candidate for multi-year offers from power-needy teams this offseason. Soler also boasts a more palatable platoon split: while he hits lefties far better than righties for his career, he’s still managed a .775 OPS against right-handers in his career, including a .807 figure in 2023. That being said, one potential cause for concern regarding Soler is his health, as the slugger spent the majority of the second half on the shelf with lower back spasms in 2022. If Soler can stay healthy and productive throughout the second half of the 2023 campaign, however, he could put his reputation as one of the sport’s most mercurial hitters to rest and emerge as one of the top offensive players in the coming free agent class, easily eclipsing the $9MM he would leave on the table by opting out of his deal with the Marlins to test free agency.

Andrew McCutchen Plans To Play In 2024, Wants To Remain With Pirates

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Andrew McCutchen’s return to Pittsburgh has thus far been a dream.  While the Bucs’ hot start has normalized to a more modest 26-25 record, it still represents a clear step up from the rebuilding and losing baseball of the previous seven seasons, and McCutchen has been a big part of that resurgence.  In addition to his expected clubhouse mentorship of the young Pirates team, McCutchen is also having a return to form on the field, hitting .269/.364/.462 with eight homers through his first 184 plate appearances.

After signing a one-year, $5MM deal last winter, McCutchen will be a free agent again this offseason, but he made it clear to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he isn’t viewing 2023 as a farewell tour.

“Tom Brady said he would stop playing when he [stunk].  I don’t want to put it in the same context, but when my body tells me I’ve had enough, then I’ve had enough,” said McCutchen, who turns 37 in October.  “My body is still saying, ‘Nah, you’re good.  You’re fine.’ ”

Obviously quite a bit can still happen with over four months remaining in the season, but on the surface, McCutchen’s comeback year doesn’t look like a fluke.  McCutchen’s BABIP is only .301, his wOBA/xwOBA are almost identical, and most of his other Statcast numbers are above average, including a 43.8% hard-hit ball rate that ranks as his highest since 2015.  The right-handed hitter is also posting roughly similar numbers against both lefties and righties, after a dropoff against right-handed pitching contributed heavily to McCutchen’s borderline average numbers from 2020-22.

After playing with the Giants, Yankees, Phillies, and Brewers from 2018-22, McCutchen has regained some stability in returning to Pittsburgh, and as a result he naturally wants to remain with the Pirates in the future.

“As long as things continue to be the way that they are, I’m going to continue to keep going,” McCutchen said.  “I want to do it here.  I don’t want to do it anywhere else.  I don’t want to continue my career on another team…..That ballpark gives me a different boost or jolt of energy that I didn’t really have.  I don’t know if it’s familiarity or the comfortability of being in Pittsburgh once again.  The surroundings, the vibe when you’re on the field, I didn’t have that anywhere else.  It’s good to be able to feel all those things again.”

McCutchen and the Pirates have yet to discuss an extension, though as Mackey notes, a new contract “shouldn’t be much more than a formality” considering how openly McCutchen wants to stay put.  From the Pirates’ viewpoint, it’s easy to imagine that the Bucs would want to retain a franchise icon who has continued to be such a productive player.

Pirates Exploring Different Outfield Alignments

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In yesterday’s spring game, the Pirates tried an outfield alignment of Bryan Reynolds in left, Jack Suwinski in center and Andrew McCutchen in right. Spring Training is a natural time for teams to experiment, but it seems like this is something the club could consider for the regular season as well. “I think that’s something we could see, depending on what we do with ‘Cutch’ in terms of being on the field but I definitely think we could see Jack in center and Bryan in left,” manager Derek Shelton said, per Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. “We saw, and we talked about last year that (Suwinski) became a better outfielder as the season went on at the major-league level. I think we’re going to continue to get a look at that.”

It seems this is something the players are all on board with, as they are all quoted by Gorman as supporting the potential plan. “I’ve talked with them and that’s going to be probably a mix of both, probably a little more left than center, I guess,” Reynolds said. “I think I grade out better in left, anyway, so that’ll be better for everybody. In the past, I’ve been good in left.” Center field is generally considered the most demanding of the three outfield positions, but PNC Park in Pittsburgh is a little unique in that the deepest part is actually in left-center.

Reynolds saw more time in left in 2019 and 2020 before spending most of his time in center over the past two seasons. The defensive metrics are a split on whether Reynolds is correct that he grades out better in left. Ultimate Zone Rating has generally not given him strong marks anywhere, while Outs Above Average thought him to be exactly average in left in 2019-2020 before a +10 in center in 2021 but then a -7 there in 2022. Defensive Runs Saved is the metric that is most aligned with Reynolds’ self assessment. It gave him a +7 in left over his first two seasons but a -19 in center over the past two. All three metrics were in agreement that he was subpar in center last year, with a -14 DRS, -2.6 UZR and -7 OAA.

Reynolds has been frequently the subject of trade rumors over the past few years, as he’s been playing at an All-Star level on a rebuilding team. A deal hasn’t come together yet with the Pirates apparently putting forth a huge asking price in any trade talks. Moving Reynolds from the premier center field position and into a corner potentially decreases his trade value, but with all the metrics souring on his work up the middle in 2022, perhaps there’s sense in moving him to the less-demanding position at least part of the time. Either way, his bat will still play, as he’s hit .281/.361/.481 for his career even with a nightmare showing in the shortened 2020 campaign. That production is 26% above league average by measure of wRC+, and he’s capable of more, producing a 141 wRC+ in 2021.

While Reynolds arguably fits better in left than in center, moving him to left will require Suwinski to be a viable option in center. That’s not a position where he has spent a ton of time, either in the majors or the minors, getting much more action in the corners. He did log 107 innings up the middle in the majors last year and was graded well, including positive grades from all three of DRS, UZR and OAA. Statcast placed his sprint speed in the 84th percentile but his jumps in the 42nd. These are small sample sizes but perhaps the Bucs feel that more reps at the position could lead to him being a viable candidate there, making this spring experiment a worthwhile path to explore.

Another issue for Suwinski will be his bat. He hit 19 home runs in just 372 plate appearances last year but also struck out in 30.6% of his trips to the plate. He’s generally been able to combine power and on-base ability in the minors, even with high strikeout rates, to be an above-average hitter. Perhaps he can keep that up at the big league level, but pitchers will likely be looking for different ways to attack him in his sophomore season and he will need to adjust.

As for McCutchen, he seems to be ticketed for right field, which he calls “the easiest position to play” at PNC Park. He’s the oldest of the trio at 36, but his sprint speed was still in the 90th percentile last year. He’ll be tasked with covering the smallest part of the outfield in Pittsburgh, though he will have to deal with the tall wall in right. “I’ve seen enough baseballs hit off that wall to know what balls may do and know the ones I’ve got to watch out for,” McCutchen said. “I know that when it goes above that fence (and caroms) off that little bit of wall there, I have to make sure I’m far enough away so I can get to it (because) that’s when you see those triples happen. They don’t happen a lot, but they happen. You do your best just to get the ball. It’s pretty simple. I don’t overthink it. I know what I’ve got to do.”

The Bucs have other outfield options on their 40-man, such as Ji Hwan Bae, Connor Joe and Calvin Mitchell and others, though it seems like this alignment with Suwinski heavily involved is at the forefront of their plans. “He’ll be fine doing it,” Reynolds said. “We’ll just work through it in spring, with him communicating in center versus me in center and getting to know each other in the new positions.” McCutchen also voiced his confidence in the plan. “Us having the understanding of who the center fielder is, what a center fielder does, we know that he has priority,” McCutchen said. “So, it’s me letting Jack know, ‘The ball is yours, regardless. When the ball goes up, it’s yours. If the ball is in the gap and I’m iffy on whether I can catch it, you should be catching that ball.’”

Pirates Sign Andrew McCutchen

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Andrew McCutchen’s career has come full circle. The Pirates on Friday formally announced that they’ve re-signed the franchise icon to a one-year contract for the 2023 season. McCutchen will reportedly earn a $5MM salary on the deal.

“We are thrilled to be able to reunite with Andrew,” Pirates owner Bob Nutting said in a statement within today’s press release. “His return just feels right. It is right for our team, for Andrew and his family, for our fans and for the game of baseball. Andrew is a special player and person. It is going to be exciting to again see him take the field wearing 22 in the black and gold.”

It’s a feel-good story for Bucs fans, who’ll surely give the five-time All-Star and 2013 National League MVP a hero’s welcome in his return to PNC Park. The Pirates selected McCutchen, now 36 years old, with the No. 11 overall pick in the 2005 draft. He immediately ranked among the sport’s top overall prospects after a strong post-draft showing in the minors in ’05, and by 2009 he’d reached the Majors and played his way into a fourth-place Rookie of the Year finish in the National League, hitting .286/.365/.471.

That served as a stepping stone into stardom for McCutchen, who’d spend the first nine seasons of his career in black and gold, hitting a combined .291/.379/.487 with 203 home runs, 292 doubles, 44 triples and 171 stolen bases. A true cornerstone player, McCutchen led the Pirates to their three most recent postseason appearances, in 2013, 2014 and 2015 — each a Wild Card berth. Pittsburgh only advanced in one of those three seasons, topping the Reds in a one-game Wild Card showdown in 2013 before falling to the Cardinals in that year’s NLDS.

McCutchen signed an early extension with Pittsburgh — a six-year, $51.5MM contract with a club option for a seventh season. That gave the Bucs some extra club control and cost certainty over a player who was then the face of the franchise, but as is so often the case with the Pirates and other low-payroll clubs, McCutchen surfaced as a trade candidate in the late stages of that contract. Nearly six years after that extension was signed, McCutchen was traded to the Giants in what was an unpopular move at the time but now looks like perhaps the best swap in former GM Neal Huntington’s tenure. In order to acquire the final year of McCutchen’s contract, the Giants parted with right-hander Kyle Crick and the man who eventually replaced McCutchen in the outfield: current center fielder Bryan Reynolds.

Since leaving the Pirates and entering his mid-30s, McCutchen’s production has begun to wane. He proved plenty productive in a 2018 season split between the Giants and Yankees — enough to land a three-year, $50MM contract with the Phillies. The first season of that deal saw continued production early on, but McCutchen suffered a torn ACL that June, missed the remainder of the season, and has since settled in closer to league-average in terms of offensive output. Over the past three seasons, he’s a .234/.325/.417 hitter — about three percent better than league average, by measure of wRC+.

McCutchen spent the 2022 campaign with Milwaukee and scuffled to a career-low .237/.316/.384 batting line in 580 trips to the plate. Even as McCutchen’s bat began to slow down in his post-Pirates days, he remained a potent threat against left-handed pitching, hitting southpaws at a .291/.407/.567 slash from 2019-21. However, that trend also dipped with the Brewers in 2022, as McCutchen turned in a tepid .221/.303/.434 line even when holding the platoon advantage. The Pirates will hope that was more of a BABIP-driven anomaly (.248) than the beginning of a true decline.

McCutchen served as the Brewers’ primary option at designated hitter last season (82 games) but also logged 50 games in the outfield. He hasn’t topped 93 innings of center field work since 2017, his last year with the Pirates, though, and at 36 years old it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll return to logging meaningful time at his former position.

There will naturally be some speculation about the signing of McCutchen and whether it serves as a portent for a subsequent trade of Reynolds, who requested one earlier this offseason due to a sizable gap in extension negotiations with the team. However, logic dictates that there’s no real connection here; McCutchen can’t play center field regularly at this point in his career, and even if Reynolds were traded, the Bucs would surely reallocate much of that playing time to younger outfield options they hope can be part of the team’s core moving forward.

Rather, McCutchen will likely get occasional looks at designated hitter, though with Pittsburgh already acquiring first basemen Ji-Man Choi and Carlos Santana this offseason, one of those two figures to be the main option at DH. McCutchen gives the Pirates’ outfield mix a complementary right-handed bat to pair with lefty-swinging corner options like Jack Suwinski, Cal Mitchell and Canaan Smith-Njigba, but his impact on the decision of whether to trade or retain Reynolds ranges between minimal to nonexistent.

Beyond the contributions he’ll make on the field and the mentorship he’ll provide to several up-and-coming young Pirates, McCutchen will give fans plenty to cheer for in 2023 as he chases down multiple career milestones. He’s just 52 hits shy of reaching 2000 in his career, and he’s only 13 home runs shy of 300. McCutchen slugged 17 home runs last year and hasn’t hit fewer than 13 in a full season’s worth of games in his career to this point, so he’s a good bet to reach both round numbers this year.

The Pirates don’t project as contenders this season, and McCutchen isn’t likely to push them over that edge, but the team has spent more this winter than in recent years. Pittsburgh has acquired Choi (projected $4.35MM salary) and signed free agents Santana ($6.725MM), Rich Hill ($8MM), Austin Hedges ($5MM), Vince Velasquez ($3.15MM) and Jarlin Garcia ($2.5MM). It’s still a modest slate of expenditures by MLB standards, but McCutchen will take them north of $30MM in added payroll this winter. Contrast that with last offseason’s $16.225MM in spending and the $2.5MM total they spent in free agency during the 2020-21 offseason, and the Bucs are at least on an upward trajectory as they look to buttress their young roster with some steady veterans who can raise the team’s floor.

Even with those additions, Pittsburgh’s payroll won’t reach $80MM, so they only deserve so much praise for taking more earnest strides to put a winning product on the field. That said, that low number still creates the possibility for further veteran additions, be it via the free-agent or trade markets.

Regardless, the Pirates should be an improved team in 2023 — due both to contributions from those new acquisitions and to larger, more productive roles from prospects acquired over the course of the rebuild. There’s surely hope that hopeful cornerstone infielders Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz will take steps forward, and the Pirates could plausibly welcome names like Endy Rodriguez, Liover Peguero, Quinn Priester and others to the big leagues for lengthy auditions. The allure of young talent alone gave Pittsburgh fans something to look forward to in 2023, but the return of a beloved franchise figure and one of the best players in recent Pirates adds an extra layer of sentimentality and, hopefully, another productive bat.

Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette first reported the agreement and the terms of the contract.

Mets To Sign Tommy Pham

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Jan. 20: Pham has passed his physical, tweets Nightengale. The outfielder will earn a $200K bonus upon reaching 225 plate appearances with the Mets, and he’ll unlock additional $200K bonuses for every 25th plate appearance thereafter, all the way up through 450 plate appearances. With the physical complete, the Mets should announce the deal sooner than later.

Jan. 18, 10:26am: It’s a one-year, $6MM contract for Pham, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds that the contract contains $2MM of available incentives and is expected to be finalized Thursday.

10:08am: The Mets and Pham have agreed to terms on a contract, Martino tweets. The deal is pending a physical.

9:44am: The Mets have an offer on the table to free-agent outfielder Tommy Pham and is optimistic about completing a deal, reports SNY’s Andy Martino. The Mets also made offers to Andrew McCutchen and Adam Duvall, per the report, but McCutchen preferred to go back to his original team in Pittsburgh while Duvall had the opportunity for more playing time in Boston.

Pham, 35 in March, split the 2022 season between Cincinnati and Boston, batting a combined .236/.312/.374 with 17 home runs and eight stolen bases in 622 plate appearances. It was a down season overall, but Pham’s line included a stout .273/.338/.446 batting line against left-handed pitching.

Additionally, Pham’s batted-ball profile also serves as a portent for increased production in the future. His 92.2 mph average exit velocity ranked in the 93rd percentile of all big league hitters, while his 48.2% hard-hit rate ranked in the 89th percentile, per Statcast. Even if bat doesn’t bounce all the way back to the levels those numbers suggest, there’s a good chance he can be a useful platoon option. Also, Pham also still drew favorable rankings for his arm strength in the outfield (74th percentile) and average sprint speed (66th percentile). Defensive metrics panned his glovework on the whole (0 DRS, -6 OAA), but the tools are there for him to rebound in that capacity as well.

From 2015-19, Pham was one of the game’s most underrated outfielders, batting a combined .277/.373/.472 (130 wRC+) with a hefty 12.2% walk rate against a 23.3% strikeout rate. He’s been a slightly below-average hitter overall since that time, but given his speed, arm strength and solid production against lefties, he’s a nice bat to have on the bench.

Pham is mostly limited to left field at this point in his career — he has just 91 innings in center field an seven in right field since 2018 — but he’ll give the Mets some outfield insurance while perhaps serving as a right-handed complement to lefty DH Daniel Vogelbach. That’s especially true if the Mets look to move on from Darin Ruf after a disappointing couple months in Queens following last year’s acquisition at the trade deadline.

While Pham himself might not be a backup option to Brandon Nimmo in center field, adding him to the mix provides the Mets with some additional cover in the event of an outfield injury. For instance, both left fielder Mark Canha and (especially) right fielder Starling Marte have experience in center field, so either could shift to center should Nimmo need a day off or a trip to the IL, with Pham then slotting into left field and Marte/Canha covering the other two outfield slots.

The Mets also have 24-year-old Khalil Lee as a lefty-hitting outfielder who can fill in at all three spots, though he has a minor league option remaining. Pham’s addition creates the possibility of sending Lee to Triple-A Syracuse for regular playing time — a luxury the team may not have previously been able to afford. Previously, the Mets’ only outfielders on the 40-man roster all projected to be on the big league roster as well, so the extra depth fills a clear need.

On top of Pham’s $6MM, the Mets owe a 90% luxury tax of $5.4MM, bringing their total tab for the signing to $11.4MM. New York’s projected bottom-line payroll for the 2023 season jumps to a bit more than $356MM, with about $374MM in luxury-tax considerations on the books. That puts them in well into the top luxury bracket and sets the stage for the Mets to be a third-time payor in the 2024 season, which point they’d owe an even steeper 110% tax on every dollar spent above the top line. Owner Steve Cohen has shown little concern with such penalties, however, and Pham’s luxury hit will be a relative drop in the bucket compared to the sum the Mets were planning to pay Carlos Correa before concerns regarding his medicals scuttled the 12-year deal between the two parties.

NL Central Notes: Cards’ Rotation, McCutchen, Cubs

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While the Cardinals are again shaping up nicely to compete for top honors in the National League Central, they’ll be faced with some important decisions a year or so from now. Among their starting rotation, only Steven Matz is signed beyond the 2023 season, with Jordan Montgomery, Adam Wainwright (who will retire), Miles Mikolas and Jack Flaherty all slated for free agency in November.

Replacing four starters in free agency is no easy feat, particularly given the way starting pitchers were priced this winter, and while they do have Dakota Hudson and prospect Matthew Liberatore as options, it should come as little surprise that Derrick Goold of the St Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the team is planning to open discussions over an extension with two starters this spring.

As Goold notes, Mikolas and Montgomery would appear to be the obvious candidates, with Flaherty a possibility as well – although he has dealt with injuries over the past few years. Montgomery, 30 last month, worked to a 3.11 ERA over 11 starts for the Cards after coming over from the Yankees at the deadline last year. He’s been a steady mid-rotation arm for a few years now and agreed to a $10MM salary in his final year before free agency. Mid-rotation arms such as Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon were sought-after commodities in free agency this year, and Montgomery would likely fit into that bracket next winter.

Mikolas, 34, worked to a 3.29 ERA over 202 1/3 innings last season. Another year like that in 2023 would set him up for a nice payday late in his career, so perhaps the the Cardinals could try and get ahead of that and lock up Mikolas for another few seasons.

Here’s some more notes from around the NL Central:

  • The Pirates move to bring back franchise icon Andrew McCutchen has been met with positivity around baseball, and Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette sheds some more light on the matter. As it turns out, a return to Pittsburgh seemed unlikely until as recently as New Year’s Day when McCutchen sent a text message to Pirates owner Bob Nutting laying out his desire to return to Pittsburgh to finish his career. As Mackey relays, Nutting then approached general manager Ben Cherington, who then met McCutchen for coffee in Pittsburgh’s northern suburbs to see if a deal could be made.While veteran signings on rebuilding clubs are often done with an eye towards the trade deadline, Mackey reports that it’s more likely McCutchen returns to the Pirates in 2024 than is flipped at the deadline. That’s not to say there’s no chance of a trade, but it does seem like McCutchen is motivated by helping Pittsburgh’s young core return to relevance, and Mackey adds that the 2013 MVP sees similarities in Pittsburgh’s 2009-12 rebuild that wound up in the team going to the playoffs three straight years between 2013-15. The Pirates don’t seem quite ready to return to playoff baseball just yet, but it would make for quite the fairytale if McCutchen were to be part of the next playoff team in Pittsburgh.
  • The Cubs have been aggressive in free agency this winter as they look to return to the top of the Central. The team has inked long-term deals with Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly, while also adding the likes of Cody Bellinger on significant deals. The team currently has a bit of wiggle room under the first luxury tax marker, but they’ll surely be approaching it over the next few years as they make more free agent additions and deal with Nico Hoerner’s arbitration raises. Per a report from Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, owner Tom Ricketts spoke of a strategic approach to the luxury tax as the team moves forward.“There will be times I’m sure in the near future where we’ll go over. But we’ll always keep in mind that there’s a balance there you have to always look to manage. Just like we did a few years ago, we’ll go over, but we have to be careful of how long and by how much,” Ricketts said.The Cubs’ luxury tax payroll currently sits at $215MM (according to Fangraphs’ calculation), with the first threshold coming at $233MM.

Mets Among Teams With Interest In Andrew McCutchen

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The Mets have shown interest in veteran outfielder Andrew McCutchen, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). New York joins the Rays and Dodgers as teams known to have checked in regarding the former MVP this offseason.

McCutchen is one of the better right-handed hitting outfielders remaining in free agency. At age 36, he’s no longer the dynamic superstar he was at his peak. Yet the five-time All-Star still has a patient plate approach and decent power. McCutchen connected on 17 home runs while drawing walks in 9.8% of his 580 plate appearances with the Brewers last season. He made hard contact on 40% of his batted balls, around four points higher than the league average.

Overall, his .237/.316/.384 line was right around league average. McCutchen has posted approximately average offensive numbers three years running, although the shape of his production was different last year than in previous seasons. From 2020-21 as a member of the Phillies, he stumbled to a .204/.297/.364 line against right-handed pitching but tattooed southpaws at a .290/.402/.603 clip. His splits were fairly even in 2022. McCutchen improved to .237/.316/.384 against same-handed arms but dropped back to .221/.303/.434 when holding the platoon advantage.

McCutchen is essentially limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter at this stage of his career. He started a pair of games in center last season but that marked his first action up the middle since 2019. He’s played primarily left field of late. Public metrics weren’t especially found of his glovework in Philadelphia, but Defensive Runs Saved credited him as five runs better than the average left fielder over 268 1/3 innings there last season. Milwaukee gave him more run at designated hitter but he’s capable of logging at least part-time corner outfield work.

It’s that role for which the Mets are ostensibly eyeing him. New York has a quality starting trio of Mark Canha, Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte. Nimmo has had a number of injured list stints throughout his career, while both Canha and Marte are into their mid-30’s. Khalil Lee, coming off a .211/.326/.366 showing in Triple-A, is the only other natural outfielder on the 40-man roster. Darin Ruf can also factor into the corner outfield but had a tough second half after being acquired from the Giants. There’s appeal for New York in adding a quality player to the bench. A center field-capable player might be preferable, but Marte at least gives New York some cover as insurance behind Nimmo if the Mets were to add a corner-only bat.

Free Agent Profile: Andrew McCutchen

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A busy month of December has seen the free agent cupboard mostly cleared out. Yet as we begin 2023 there are still a few interesting options on the open market for teams looking for upgrades heading into the new season. Of course, many teams will look to the trade market over the next month or two – particularly if they’re after impact options – but good deals can still be found in free agency.

One such player is a former MVP, who remains a threat at the plate and is well-regarded as a veteran presence in the clubhouse. Andrew McCutchen may not be the same player that went to five-straight All Star games with the Pirates, but he could still help a lot of teams. There was a report in early December that the Rays and Dodgers had interest in McCutchen, but it’s been quiet since. The Dodgers have since signed J.D. Martinez, which may rule them out, but the Rays could still feasibly have a spot for him.

McCutchen, 36, spent the past season with the Brewers on a one-year, $8MM deal. They’d signed him on the back of three years in Philadelphia, which culminated in McCutchen hitting .222/.334/.444 with 27 home runs over 574 plate appearances. It was a solid enough season, but what perhaps got Milwaukee’s attention was the way in which McCutchen torched left-handed pitching in 2021, slashing .293/.405/.622 in 195 plate appearances against southpaws. It was particularly pronounced in 2021, but McCutchen’s splits have favored hitting against left-handers over his career.

Unfortunately for the Brewers, it wasn’t the case in 2022. McCutchen would hit just .221/.303/.435 against left-handers in Milwaukee, contributing to an overall line of .237/.316/.384 overall line of 580 plate appearances. While his walk and strikeout rates have trended in the wrong direction in recent times, they were still reasonable marks, as he struck out 21.4% of the time against a 9.8% walk rate. That was good for a wRC+ of 98, a couple of ticks below the league average but the first time it had dipped below 100 in his career. He did enjoy a 262 plate appearance tear in the middle of the summer, where he crushed 11 home runs and hit at an .868 OPS. Of course, the fact that his overall season mark was well below that suggests there were some very lean runs in there as well.

Perhaps the biggest concern from McCutchen’s season was the drop in power. He slugged 27 home runs a year prior with the Phillies, but hit just 17 last season. American Family Field in Milwaukee is generally less favorable to home run hitters than Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, but it was still a significant drop in long balls. In McCutchen’s defense, his exit velocity and HardHit% were both roughly the same as a year earlier, so he’s still making plenty of solid contact.

On the defensive side of things, McCutchen has spent most of his time in the DH spot in recent years, but can still play the outfield, and enjoyed a bit of success there in 2022. He was worth 5 Defensive Runs Saved in a small sample of 268 1/3 innings, while he also spent a small amount of time in right and center. He did make 82 appearances in the DH spot and his days of being an everyday outfielder are probably over, but he’s by no means a liability in the field and his numbers in 2022 could encourage a new team to give him a larger workload in the field in 2023.

McCutchen will likely sign another one-year deal, quite possibly in the same range as the $8MM salary he took home in 2022. At this stage of free agency, most of the players available have some flaws, but McCutchen could still work as a solid option for a number of teams. He still has ~20 home run power, draws walks at a bit above the league average rate and doesn’t strike out too often. While he’s not likely to be a team’s everyday outfielder, he could shift around the corner outfield spots, making DH appearances and allowing teams to spell their starting outfielders on a regular basis. Further to that, McCutchen’s got a good clubhouse reputation and could perhaps work on a contending team with a slightly younger roster. While he’s unlikely to be a difference maker at this point, teams could do worse than bringing in the veteran to deepen their roster for the upcoming season.

Dodgers, Rays Interested In Andrew McCutchen

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The Dodgers and Rays are among the teams with interest in free agent outfielder/designated hitter Andrew McCutchen, tweets ESPN’s Buster Olney. As Olney points out, McCutchen could very well topple a couple of career milestones in 2023, as he’s 52 hits shy of 2000 and 13 long balls away from the 300 mark.

McCutchen, 36, spent the 2022 season with the Brewers, for whom he slashed at a .237/.316/.384 pace through 580 trips to the plate. It was an uneven season for the 2013 NL MVP, as he stumbled out of the gates with a poor two-month stretch before catching fire in June and ultimately wilting again in the season’s final seven to eight weeks.

McCutchen’s run early in the summer at least showed that there’s still life in his bat — inconsistent as the production may be. The endpoints here are arbitrary, and any player can look better when focusing only on his hottest stretch of the season, but for a period of 262 plate appearances beginning on June 5, McCutchen mashed at a .288/.370/.498 pace, slugging 11 homers and 15 doubles along the way. Of course, it’s only fair to also point out that said hot streak was preceded by an absolutely frigid spell in which he collected just one hit in a span of 39 trips to the plate.

The peaks and valleys of McCutchen’s 2022 season resulted in a 98 wRC+ and 99 OPS+, suggesting that he was just barely shy of average at the plate for the season as a whole. Part of the downturn in production for McCutchen, who batted a combined .237/.343/.444 as a Phillie from 2019-21 (109 wRC+), was that his longstanding production against southpaws evaporated in 2022. McCutchen is career .300 hitter with a .936 OPS and 154 wRC+ against lefties, even including last year’s struggles, but this past season’s .221/.303/.434 slash when holding the platoon advantage was miles shy of his career standard.

On the defensive side of the coin, McCutchen played just 434 innings in the outfield, most coming in left — although the Brewers gave him 13 innings in center and 153 in right. Defensive Runs Saved (4), Ultimate Zone Rating (1.8) and Outs Above Average (0) all thought he was at least serviceable, if not a net positive in his limited work with the glove. However, McCutchen spent 82 games as Milwaukee’s designated hitter, too. It’s possible another team would view him as a viable option to log a larger workload in the outfield, but a return to his days of pllaying 1300-1400 innings in the outfield seems like a reach, given his age and recent usage.

In Los Angeles, McCutchen could give the Dodgers a right-handed complement to lefty-swinging 25-year-old James Outman, who had a huge season in the upper minors and also impressed in a tiny MLB debut (16 plate appearances). Tampa Bay is more set in the outfield but could still use McCutchen as a right-handed option off the bench, mixing him in for occasional work in the outfield corners and at designated hitter. It’s worth noting that McCutchen is a native of Fort Meade, Fla. and attended Fort Meade High School — about 75 miles from the Rays’ Tropicana Field.

McCutchen played the 2022 season on a one-year, $8.5MM contract, and it seems quite likely that he’ll be ticketed for another one-year deal wherever he lands — be it with the Dodgers, Rays or another team.

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