Ben Cherington On The Pirates’ Shortcomings, Offseason Plans, Andrew McCutchen
Pirates general manager Ben Cherington met with members of the media (including Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) on Tuesday to discuss the upcoming offseason. Topics on the table included the team’s shortcomings in 2023, his plans for improving the roster over the winter, and Andrew McCutchen‘s future with the club.
When asked about the Pirates’ midseason collapse following a hot start, Cherington didn’t mince words, suggesting that the team simply wasn’t good enough to contend across a full 162-game season. On that note, he emphasized that improving the team will be his “sole focus” over the offseason; in other words, the worst of the rebuilding years are over. Going forward, the Pirates are going to make an effort to compete. That doesn’t mean they’ll be serious contenders for the NL Central crown right away, and the executive acknowledged as much, but it certainly seems like his goal is to field a winning ballclub.
In terms of moves to improve the roster in 2024, the GM spoke about potential trades and free agent acquisitions. In terms of trades, Cherington said he isn’t taking anything off the table right now, and he’d be willing to make a significant trade if he saw it as the best way to upgrade the roster. As for free agents, he didn’t rule out the possibility of some signings, but he cautioned that he doesn’t want to “lean on free agency exclusively” as a means of improving the club. On a similar note, he drove home the point that the most meaningful improvements need to come from players already in the organization. That means young guys like Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jack Suwinski, Henry Davis, Endy Rodríguez, Johan Oviedo, and Quinn Priester stepping up and continuing to grow. Cherington also said he would consider extensions for some of the more established contributors on the roster, including Mitch Keller and David Bednar.
While he didn’t get too specific about potential targets in free agency, Cherington did say he might be open to “a different type of target” than he has signed in the past. That could mean a bigger-impact type of player on a longer-term deal, although the GM’s answer was deliberately vague.
One particular impending free agent he could talk about, however, was McCutchen, who remains under contract with Pittsburgh until the conclusion of the World Series. The former MVP was enjoying his best season in years until he tore his left Achilles tendon in early September. Presumably, both sides would be amenable to a reunion in 2024. Cherington said he plans to meet with the beloved veteran in the coming days to discuss his future with the Pirates.
Pirates Select Kyle Nicolas
The Pirates have selected the contract of right-handed pitcher Kyle Nicolas, the team announced. In corresponding moves, fellow right-hander Thomas Hatch has been optioned to Triple-A, while Andrew McCutchen has been transferred to the 60-day injured list.
The 24-year-old Nicolas came to Pittsburgh in 2021 as part of the trade that sent Jacob Stallings to Miami. Primarily a starting pitcher during his first two years in the minors, he transitioned to a relief role this summer. By and large, he has performed much better out of the bullpen, albeit in a limited sample size. From August 1 to September 13, he pitched 21 innings in relief, posting a 2.14 ERA and striking out an incredible 30 batters.
Entering the season, both Baseball America and FanGraphs ranked Nicolas as the no. 14 prospect in the Pirates system. The evaluators at Baseball America praised his powerful fastball, while those at FanGraphs were more impressed with his consistent command. However, it should be said that both sources were assessing his body of work as a starter. Thus far, he has looked more like a power pitcher out of the bullpen, with an impressive 36.8% strikeout rate but a less-than-ideal 11.4% walk rate.
After four years in the Blue Jays organization, Hatch was designated for assignment this August. The Pirates quickly scooped him up and added the right-handed to the active roster. In 12 appearances for Pittsburgh, the 28-year-old pitched to a 4.03 ERA and a 4.49 SIERA, nothing spectacular, but perfectly serviceable numbers for a long reliever. Still, it’s understandable why the Pirates would be more interested in the potential that Nicolas brings. It’s far more likely that the youngster plays a significant role in next year’s bullpen.
As for McCutchen, his move to the 60-day IL is nothing more than a formality. The veteran tore his left Achilles tendon earlier this month, ending his 2023 campaign. According to Pirates general manager Ben Cherington, the team believes McCutchen will be back on the field in 2024, and the two sides have agreed to discuss a contract for next year during the offseason.
Pirates, Andrew McCutchen Plan To Discuss New Contract In Offseason
Andrew McCutchen‘s Pittsburgh homecoming was the feel-good story of the year for Pirates fans, and while it ended on a sour note — McCutchen suffered a partial Achilles tear last week, ending his season — there’s mutual interest in a 2024 reunion. General manager Ben Cherington told Pirates beat writers yesterday that the team and McCutchen will meet in the offseason to discuss further extending the relationship (link via Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review).
“We believe that the injury he’s recovering from right now should not get in the way of him being a good baseball player next year and being someone who can help us, and we’ve agreed that we’ll pick that conversation up when the season is over,” Cherington said before adding that he’s hopeful the Pirates can enjoy “a lot more good moments out there with him.”
Now 36 years old, McCutchen returned to his original organization on a one-year, $5MM deal over the winter. The former NL MVP was the 11th overall draft pick by the Pirates back in 2005 and starred with Pittsburgh from 2009-17, leading the charge as the Bucs reached the postseason each year from 2013-15.
McCutchen was given a hero’s welcome upon returning to Pittsburgh and said both at the time of his signing and a couple months into the season that he had no desire to play anywhere other than Pittsburgh. “I don’t want to continue my career on another team,” McCutchen told Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette back on May 26. The Bucs honored those wishes, holding McCutchen at the trade deadline even amid interest from other clubs and even as they shipped out players such as Rich Hill, Carlos Santana, Ji Man Choi and Rodolfo Castro.
It’s been a productive return to the scene of his big league debut for McCutchen. In 473 trips to the plate, the five-time All-Star batted .256/.378/.397 with a dozen home runs, 19 doubles and 11 stolen bases. He also tallied the 2000th hit of his excellent career this season, and had it not been for his injury, he’d likely have swatted his 300th homer. As it stands, he’s sitting on 299 big flies in his career. If he indeed returns next year for a 16th Major League season, he’ll quite likely become just the 159th member of that 300-homer club.
As far as the roster fit goes, there probably won’t be much outfield time to go around — although that was also the case in 2023, when he logged just 64 innings in the field. Bryan Reynolds is entrenched in left field, and Jack Suwinski figures to have center field locked down after hitting (as of this writing) 25 home runs. McCutchen hasn’t been a viable option in center field for years anyhow.
Right field is a bit more up in the air, but top catching prospect Henry Davis has logged considerable time there, and the Bucs also have some depth names like Canaan Smith-Njigba and Joshua Palacios on the 40-man roster at present. McCutchen could reprise his role as the team’s primary designated hitter, and he’d certainly be an option in the outfield on occasion, perhaps lining up in right field against left-handed opponents.
From a payroll vantage point, McCutchen shouldn’t be a problem even for the light-spending Bucs. A salary comparable to this year’s $5MM rate wouldn’t be a surprise, and the Pirates only have $17MM on the books in 2024 anyhow: Reynolds’ $10MM salary and the $7MM owed to third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes. Arbitration raises will boost that number a bit, but the Bucs only have four eligible players: Mitch Keller, Miguel Andujar, JT Brubaker and David Bednar. Andujar is a non-tender candidate. Brubaker will likely earn the same $2.275MM he did in 2023 after missing the year due to Tommy John surgery. Bednar is eligible for only the first time. Keller stands to receive a healthy raise on this year’s $2.4375MM salary.
Even after accounting for those raises, the Pirates will probably only have around $30MM in total on the books — about $43MM less than the mark at which they opened the current season. That’d certainly leave ample room for spending, and if the improvements over the team’s 2022 record embolden owner Bob Nutting to increase payroll a bit, there could be a bit more in terms of available resources. A McCutchen reunion wouldn’t significantly cut into that payroll space, and it’s at least feasible that the Bucs could even be in on some mid-tier free agents (or perhaps acquire some controllable players who are entering or have entered their arbitration years).
For now, the focus will be on his recovery. It’s understandable if both team and player want to wait until there’s a better sense for how McCutchen will heal and recover before beginning to talk contract. But McCutchen’s message since day one back in Pittsburgh has been that he hopes to play out his career in black and gold, and Cherington’s latest comments only serve to reinforce the likelihood of that happening.
Andrew McCutchen Suffers Partial Achilles Tear, Done For Season
The Pirates announced to reporters, including Justice delos Santos of MLB.com, that outfielder/designated hitter Andrew McCutchen is going on the 10-day injured list due to a partial tear in his left Achilles tendon. McCutchen will be in a walking boot for the next six weeks, meaning his season is done with less than four weeks now remaining on the schedule. The club later officially announced McCutchen’s IL placement with infielder Jared Triolo recalled in a corresponding move.
McCutchen, 36, returned to the Pirates this season on a one-year, $5MM deal. He had spent his prime with the Bucs but eventually bounced to the Giants, Yankees, Phillies and Brewers as the Pirates underwent a rebuild and gave most of the playing time to younger players. But he was able to don the black and gold again this year, serving as a veteran presence for a young team on the rise.
That’s not to say that his position on the roster was merely ceremonial, as he’s actually been the club’s best hitter this year. He’s drawn walks in 15.9% of his plate appearances and hit 12 home runs. His .256/.378/.397 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 115, indicating he’s been 15% better than the league average hitter this year, the highest mark on the club among those with at least 10 plate appearances.
The Bucs are well out of contention at this point but it’s nonetheless a tough pill to swallow, given his popularity among the fans and around baseball in general. He’s also currently sitting on 299 home runs, meaning he won’t have a chance to cross that milestone this year.
Although that’s surely frustrating, it seems possible he’ll have a chance to hit that marker next year. He has continually been open about his desire to return to the Pirates next year and reiterated that stance today, via delos Santos. He seems to have a good relationship with the franchise, making it fair to expect the two sides to reunite on another deal for 2024. The injury creates some cloudiness about his status, but if the six weeks in the walking boot get him back to health, he should be in line to have a fairly normal offseason and Spring Training.
Defensively, McCutchen was primarily a designated hitter this year, only heading to the outfield for 64 2/3 innings. Though the club might want to give some playing time to younger players, they could surely find some at-bats for their best offensive contributor this year, especially considering his iconic status in Pittsburgh.
NL Central Notes: McCutchen, Anderson, Swanson
The Pirates announced this morning that they had activated veteran outfielder Andrew McCutchen from the 10-day injured list. Infielder Rodolfo Castro was optioned to Triple-A in a corresponding move.
McCutchen’s return should help to boost a Pirates offense that desperately needs a spark. After a hot 20-8 start to open the season, the club has cratered to a 41-51 record that puts in fourth place in the NL Central, 9.5 games back of the division-leading Brewers. That free-fall in the standings can be primarily attributed to an offense that ranks dead last in the majors since May 1 with a wRC+ of just 79, 21% below league average. As the team’s offense has slumped, McCutchen has maintained solid production with a .275/.399/.398 slash line in 208 plate appearances since the start of May.
While McCutchen’s steady veteran presence and an injection of youth from the likes of Henry Davis and Nick Gonzales have helped to steady the club’s offense somewhat, the Pirates will need improved performance from star outfielder Bryan Reynolds, who has slashed just .150/.209/.250 since returning from low back inflammation earlier this month. That performance has dropped his drop his wRC+ to just 109 this season, a far cry from the 133 wRC+ he offered the past two seasons.
More from around the NL Central…
- The Brewers announced today that they had placed third baseman Brian Anderson on the 10-day IL with a low back strain. It’s been a difficult season for Anderson as the 30 year old has slashed just .229/.317/.373 with a wRC+ of 90 in 85 games this season while acting as Milwaukee’s primary third baseman. Replacing Anderson on the roster is infielder Jahmai Jones, who kicked his Brewers career off by going 2-4 with a double, a walk, and a stolen base in five trips to the plate after signing with the club on a major league deal earlier this month. Infielder Andruw Monasterio figures to handle the hot corner while Anderson is on the shelf, with Jones sliding into Monasterio’s typical utility role.
- Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson is eligible to come off the IL for the first time today after suffering a left heel contusion just before the All-Star break. That being said, The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma relays that manager David Ross expects Swanson to be out for a least a little while longer. According to Ross, while Swanson’s heel improved over the break, he still is feeling “some pain” when running the bases. While Swanson is on the shelf, Nico Hoerner has slid from second base to shortstop, opening up the keystone for Christopher Morel.
Who Could The Pirates Trade At The Deadline?
The Pirates jumped out to a hot start in 2023, sitting on a 20-9 record at the end of April that made it seem like the days of rebuilding were suddenly in the rearview mirror. Unfortunately, they haven’t been able to maintain that, falling back to earth with an 8-18 record in May. Ownership was still supportive of buying at the deadline as recently as June 21, but the club has continued to slide in the standings.
The Bucs now find themselves with a record of 41-49. They are fourth in the National League Central, well behind the Reds and Brewers. They’re also behind the third-place Cubs, who have the best run differential of the bunch and a soft schedule coming out of the break. FanGraphs currently pegs Pittsburgh’s playoff odds at just 1.4%.
Barring a tremendous surge after the All-Star break, the club will likely have to set their sights on 2024. That will mean having discussions about trading away veterans, both to recoup some younger players to help in future seasons and to open up playing time for the players they already have. Let’s take a look at some options, though there aren’t too many players on the roster who fit the bill.
Rental Players
Hill continues to defy Father Time and is still a reasonably effective starter at the age of 43. He’s tossed 98 innings over 18 starts this year and currently has a 4.78 ERA, striking out 21.1% of batters faced while walking 9% and getting grounders at a 35.9% clip. He’s making $8MM this year, with about $2.6MM still to be paid out when the deadline rolls around.
He won’t command a huge return as a back-end innings eater, but the Bucs could perhaps line up with some club that simply wants a guy to take the ball every five days. Just a couple of years ago, the Nationals were able to get Lane Thomas in return for a 37-year-old Jon Lester and his 5.02 ERA at that time. The Pirates shouldn’t expect that kind of return on Hill, but it serves to demonstrate that they could at least take a flier on someone by putting Hill out there.
Santana, 37, isn’t likely to be a huge deadline addition at this stage of his career. However, it was just a year ago that the Royals were able to trade him to the Mariners for a couple of younger relievers. This year, he’s still showing his good approach at the plate, with his 10.5% walk rate and 18% strikeout rate both better than average. He’s hit nine home runs, but his .233/.311/.390 batting line is a bit below average, translating to a wRC+ of 91.
The switch-hitter has always been a bit better against lefties and that continues to be the case this year, as he’s slashing .260/.348/.416 against southpaws for a wRC+ of 109. There are likely some contenders who would be happy to utilize him as a short-side platoon bat and pinch-hitter off the bench. His first base defense continues to be considered above average. He’s making $6.725MM this year, which will leave around $2.2MM at deadline time.
Choi, 32, appeared in nine games before a strained Achilles tendon in his left foot sent him to the injured list. He was reinstated just before the break, and his form in the next few weeks will likely determine his trade interest. He’s hit .237/.340/.428 in his career with a 13.1% walk rate, leading to a wRC+ of 114. The left-handed hitter has been especially strong with the platoon advantage, hitting .245/.351/.454 against righties in his career for a 124 wRC+. He’s earning $4.65MM this year and about $1.5MM will be remaining at the end of the month.
Hedges has long been considered one of the best defensive catchers in the game but doesn’t provide much with the bat. That’s especially true this year, where he’s hitting just .179/.230/.232. His wRC+ of 26 is dead last in the league among players with at least 170 plate appearances. Yet he continues to get work based on his defensive acumen and strong reputation for working with pitchers.
Trading catchers in midseason is generally tricky, as it can be challenging to learn an entirely new pitching staff on the fly. If the Bucs can’t line up a trade for that reason, they may have to think about moving on from Hedges regardless. Catching prospect Henry Davis is already up with the big league club to get his bat in the lineup but is playing the outfield at the moment. The club’s other top catching prospect, Endy Rodríguez, is in Triple-A and perhaps ready for a promotion. Both Davis and Rodríguez play other positions and it remains to be seen who the club considers its true “catcher of the future,” so perhaps they could use the last few months of the season to get a look at one or both.
McCutchen makes theoretical sense as a trade candidate since he’s 36 years old, an impending free agent and performing well at the plate this year. The Rangers have reportedly expressed interest, but all signs seem to point to Cutch staying put. He’s been quite open about how happy he is to be back in Pittsburgh and plans to spend the rest of his career there. The club is apparently on board with that and doesn’t seem to have any designs on trading him.
Signed/Controlled For One Extra Year
García has a 2.89 ERA dating back to 2019 and had that figure at 3.74 last year but was non-tendered by the Giants. The Bucs swooped in and signed him to a $2.5MM deal with a $3.25MM club option for 2024. Unfortunately, he’s been on the injured list all year due to a biceps injury. Players on the IL can still be traded, but there won’t be much interest unless he shows some progress in the next few weeks.
Longer-Term Players
There are no indications the club has any plans of trading Keller. In fact, he’s the best rotation building block they have, with his 3.31 ERA this year putting him just outside the top 10 in the National League. But although he’s only been breaking out over the past year or so, his control is dwindling since he’s a bit of a late bloomer. Debuting back in 2019, he struggled in his first few seasons before putting things together recently and now has just two seasons of control left beyond this one.
The Bucs are in a similar situation with Keller to where they were with Bryan Reynolds not too long ago. Reynolds was clearly an important member of the club but there was a ticking clock as his free agency was getting closer. In that case, the two sides lined up on an extension to potentially keep him in Pittsburgh through 2031, and a similar decision might have to be made on Keller.
Bednar, 28, continues to cement himself as one of the better relievers in the league. He has a 1.27 ERA this year, striking out 29.8% of hitters while walking just 5%, earning 17 saves in the process. Given the volatility of reliever performance, there could be an argument for the Bucs to cash in while his trade value is high, as they can currently market him with three seasons of control beyond this one. However, Bednar’s a fan favorite, having been born in Pittsburgh and raised in the area. Since the club has shown flashes that suggest the rebuild won’t go on for much longer, it seems unlikely they would consider moving a key piece like Bednar. As with Keller, other teams will still surely try, but he’s likely staying put.
Joe isn’t anywhere close to free agency, as he will have four years of club control remaining after this one. But while many of the players on the club’s roster are in their mid-20s, Joe will be turning 31 next month. He’s also having a decent season, hitting .240/.332/.421 for a wRC+ of 106 while playing first base and the outfield corners. Perhaps the club would be tempted to put him on the trading block now since his trade value will likely only decrease as he ages and becomes more expensive. He’ll finish this year with his service time at 2.136 and could qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player.
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Ultimately, the Bucs don’t have too much to offer as sellers this winter. The veterans they do have will get some interest but won’t be headlining any blockbuster deals. If they get on a hot streak in the next few weeks, perhaps they just decide to hold onto everyone and hope for a strong finish. But their chances of contention should be much stronger next year and they could start lining things up for that.
By moving Hedges, they could get a look at Davis and Rodríguez as catchers at the big league level while continuing to evaluate their bats. By moving Santana, Choi and/or Joe out of the first base/designated hitter/corner outfield mix, they could open up plate appearances for players currently in the minors, whether that’s a prospect like Liover Peguero or a potential late bloomer like Miguel Andujar. The latter struggled in the majors earlier this year but has hit .409/.459/.634 in Triple-A since accepting an outright assignment two months ago. If added to the club’s roster later this year, they could retain him via arbitration for 2024.
Pirates Place McCutchen, Hayes On Injured List; Designate Rob Zastryzny
The Pirates made a number of moves before tonight’s game in Arizona. Outfielder Andrew McCutchen and third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes were both placed on the 10-day injured list. To take the active roster spots, Pittsburgh reinstated first baseman Ji Man Choi from the 60-day IL and recalled right-hander Cody Bolton. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, Pittsburgh designated reliever Rob Zastryzny for assignment after activating him from his own IL stint.
McCutchen’s placement is retroactive to July 6 and on account of right elbow inflammation. He’d been nagged by elbow soreness dating back a few weeks, and the club apparently decided to give him some time to rest it completely. Next week’s All-Star Break means McCutchen could miss as few as five games if he’s able to return when first eligible.
Signed to a one-year deal over the winter, the former MVP has had an excellent return season in Pittsburgh. He’s hitting .268/.383/.425 with 10 homers across 316 trips to the plate. He’s walking at an elite 15.5% clip while striking out only 20.3% of the time.
Hayes is dealing with lower back inflammation. The same issue sent him to the IL on June 28. He was reinstated last night but evidently isn’t fully healthy after all. The Pirates used Jared Triolo as their primary third baseman while Hayes was out, so the rookie infielder figures to draw back into the starting lineup.
Choi will try to get his first Pittsburgh campaign rolling heading into the Break. Acquired from the Rays over the offseason, the lefty-hitting first baseman only appeared in nine games before a strained Achilles tendon in his left foot put him on the shelf. Choi was ice cold in the season’s first couple weeks but reached base at a quality .341 clip for Tampa Bay last year. With Carlos Santana at first base, Choi draws into the starting lineup tonight at designated hitter. He’ll hit fifth against Arizona ace Zac Gallen.
With Choi coming back from the 60-day IL, Pittsburgh needed to clear a 40-man spot. That’ll be at Zastryzny’s expense. The 31-year-old lefty cracked the Opening Day roster after an offseason minor league deal. He made 18 appearances, working to a 5.29 ERA through 17 frames. Zastryzny had as many walks as strikeouts (13 apiece) and twice landed on the IL.
The more recent of those stints came three weeks ago, when forearm inflammation put him on the shelf. Zastryzny is apparently now healthy, but the Bucs elected not to carry him on the roster. He’s out of minor league option years, so Pittsburgh needed to either plug him back into the MLB bullpen or take him off the 40-man.
Within the next week, Pittsburgh will trade him or put him on waivers. Zastryzny has cleared outright waivers in the past, so he’d have the ability to test free agency if he goes unclaimed again.
Rangers Have Shown Interest In Andrew McCutchen
The Rangers have reached out to the Pirates about a potential Andrew McCutchen trade, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com, but the Bucs aren’t open to such scenarios at this time. As Morosi observes, the Rangers have a deep lineup but have received poor production from the designated hitter spot in the order. The veteran McCutchen, hitting .271/.394/.431 with nine homers and nine steals on the season, would clearly represent a boost.
That said, there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of a potential McCutchen trade coming together. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wrote at the time of McCutchen’s reunion in with the Pirates that the franchise icon returned to Pittsburgh with the intent of finishing out his career there; the Pirates didn’t make the signing with the intent of flipping him at the deadline, and Mackey reported in January that the two parties even discussed McCutchen’s desire to stay put in Pittsburgh while negotiating the deal. McCutchen told Mackey exactly one month ago that he wants to win in Pittsburgh and is not interest in playing elsewhere. “I don’t want to continue my career on another team,” McCutchen said on May 26.
It’s certainly possible that if the Pirates are buried in the standings as the deadline looms, McCutchen could have a change of heart and inform the front office he’d like to be moved to a contender. That seems unlikely based on his recent comments, however. And, even after their recent freefall, the Pirates are only five and a half games back in a dismal NL Central division.
That relative proximity to contending in the division matters, too. It was barely more than a week ago that Pirates president Travis Williams publicly indicated that the team’s hope was to return to the postseason as soon as this year. If the Bucs find themselves with a shot at doing so in the run-up to the trade deadline, Williams noted that GM Ben Cherington would have ownership support to add pieces, even if it meant further boosting the payroll. The Pirates weren’t quite so far into their staggering 1-12 swoon at that point, but again, the feeble context of their division could yet leave them with a realistic chance at a playoff berth — particularly with more than a month until the deadline.
All of that context notwithstanding, it’s at least of some note that the Rangers are perusing the market for potential upgrades. Interest in McCutchen is only logical for them. He’s an accomplished veteran hitter who’s well liked and who has played under current skipper Bruce Bochy. It stands to reason that Bochy enjoyed having McCutchen in the lineup and in the clubhouse during the outfielder’s brief time with the Giants.
Further, as Morosi rightly points out, the Rangers simply haven’t gotten much out of the DH spot in the lineup this year. Texas designated hitters are batting .223/.313/.377 on the season. The resulting 94 wRC+ ranks 19th in the Majors. That production (or lack thereof) has come from a combination of 10 players. Robbie Grossman leads the Rangers with 88 plate appearances as their DH, and he’s hit extremely well in that time. Grossman, though, is also seeing regular time in the outfield. The Rangers have cycled him, Brad Miller, Mitch Garver, Ezequiel Duran, Corey Seager, Jonah Heim, Adolis Garcia, Josh H. Smith and Sam Huff through the DH spot this year, ostensibly using it more as a means of affording occasional rest to regulars rather than dedicating one slugger to the position.
Acquiring any other full-time DH would mark a departure from that strategy. McCutchen is just one of several options to fill that role — seemingly not even a likely one — and since it’s the DH spot in question, the position of a potential trade target could be largely immaterial.
Broadly speaking, it’s still early in the summer for trades of significance to come together. Modern front offices tend to wait until the final few days before the deadline to act with much aggression, and the expansion of the playoff field seems like it’ll only further fuel that trait. Only three teams in baseball currently find themselves facing a deficit of nine games or greater in the postseason hunt: the Royals, A’s and Rockies. And while those teams surely know the direction they’ll take at the deadline, even they might prefer to wait and see if there are more motivated buyers at the deadline. Many teams — the Pirates included — are currently on the fence about their deadline trajectory but might be more willing to part with young talent closer to Aug. 1.
Five Bats Improving Their Stock Ahead Of Free Agency
With the midpoint of the 2023 regular season fast approaching, the 2023-24 free agent class is beginning to solidify. The coming class has long been considered one deep in pitching but light on potentially impactful hitters. While that evaluation has mostly held up throughout the first half of the season, a handful of surprising hitters are on track for a healthy payday this winter, should their performance hold up throughout the rest of the year.
Each of these players has appeared primarily as a DH in 2023, meaning they would offer prospective suitors little in the way of defensive value. Still, each could find himself among the top options for teams looking to add thump to their lineup without breaking the bank for the likes of Shohei Ohtani or Matt Chapman. Let’s take a look at five hitters who are helping to transform the complexion of the coming class of free agent hitters, in ascending order based on their wRC+ in 2023:
Justin Turner, Red Sox (121 wRC+):
After nine seasons with the Dodgers, the club’s longest tenured hitter departed Los Angeles over the offseason, eventually landing with the Red Sox on a complex two-year deal with an opt-out following the 2023 campaign. Despite concerns that the veteran infielder was headed for a downturn in terms of production as he entered his late thirties, Turner has managed to stave off father time through his first 67 games in Boston, slashing .278/.356/.451 across 289 plate appearances.
That quality slash line comes with excellent peripheral numbers, as well: his 14.5% strikeout rate remains elite, and his 9.7% walk rate is well above league average in its own right. His chase rate has actually improved since last season, as his 65th percentile rank in 2022 has leapt to the 80th percentile in 2023. Those improvements leave Turner with a .363 xwOBA that would be his best in a 162 game season since 2019. While there’s some cause for concern about the veteran’s power production going forward, as his barrel rate has dipped from 8% last season to just 6% in the current campaign, Turner seems all but certain to beat the $6.7MM he’d be leaving on the table by returning to the open market this offseason as long as he stays healthy and avoids a significant downturn in production in the second half.
Andrew McCutchen, Pirates (122 wRC+):
After posting the first below-average offensive season of his career (98 wRC+) with the Brewers in 2022, McCutchen decided to return to Pittsburgh, where the veteran outfielder was drafted in the first round of the 2005 draft, played for nine seasons, and earned an MVP award. He and the Pirates agreed to a one-year, $5MM deal that has worked out splendidly for both sides: McCutchen has slashed .262/.379/.424 across 256 plate appearances in his age-36 season while recording his 2,000th hit in a Pirates uniform as the club has bucked expectations in the first half of the season, posting a 34-36 record that leaves them just 2.5 games out of first place in the NL Central.
When McCutchen returns to free agency following the 2023 campaign, the decorated veteran figures to have recorded his 300th home run and 400th double in addition to his aforementioned 2,000th hit. On top of those career milestones, McCutchen has experienced nothing short of a career renaissance in returning to Pittsburgh. His 19.5% strikeout rate is the lowest its been since he left Pittsburgh following the 2017 season, while his 16% walk rate ranks sixth among all qualified hitters. His chase rate is similarly elite, ranking in the 95th percentile of qualifying hitters. Though he’s appeared in the outfield just eight times this season, McCutchen’s resurgence in 2023 seems all but guaranteed to allow him to continue his career into 2024 and beyond, whether that be with the Pirates or elsewhere.
J.D. Martinez, Dodgers (131 wRC+):
While the previous two veterans on this list have found success by combining roughly average power with elite plate discipline, Martinez has largely done the opposite throughout his career. Once among the league’s most fearsome sluggers as he challenged for a Triple Crown in the AL back in 2018 en route to a 4th place finish in MVP voting, Martinez’s final seasons in Boston saw the slugger’s production decline, as he posted a wRC+ of 116 from 2020-22 with an ISO of just .199 after posting marks .228 or higher in every season from 2014-2019.
After signing with the Dodgers on a one-year deal worth $10MM, Martinez seems to have rediscovered his power stroke in 2023. He’s already slammed 16 home runs in 55 games this season, matching the total he managed across 139 games in 2022. That being said, the renewed power has come at the cost of plate discipline: Martinez’s 5.6% walk rate would be his lowest over a full season since 2013, while his 29.9% strikeout rate would be the highest of his entire career. Still, it’s hard to argue with the results, as Martinez’s current wRC+ and xWOBA would both be his best since the aforementioned 2019 season if maintained over a full season while his ISO leads the majors among qualified hitters. In his return to free agency this offseason, Martinez figures to offer elite power production out of the DH spot, even entering his age-36 campaign.
Joc Pederson, Giants (149 wRC+):
The Giants raised some eyebrows this past offseason by extending Pederson a Qualifying Offer after a phenomenal 2022 campaign, but the lefty-swinging slugger has quieted doubters by improving on last season’s performance in 137 plate appearances in 2023. While his .237 ISO has dipped slightly as compared to last season’s .247 mark, Pederson has more than made up for it by raising his walk rate from an above-average 9.7% clip in 2022 to a whopping 14.6% this season as his 21.2% strikeout rate in 2023 would be his lowest since 2018.
What’s more, unlike the three veterans we’ve discussed to this point, Pederson will be just 31 years old on Opening Day 2024, making him a safer bet to stave off age-related decline than any of Turner, McCutchen, and Martinez. That being said, Pederson is not without flaws. He sports a worrisome platoon split, with just a .626 OPS against lefties in his career, and has largely been platoon-protected during his time with San Francisco. What’s more, he’s struggled to stay healthy this year, with two stints on the injured list already in the young 2023 campaign. Despite those flaws, though, Pederson’s lefty power figures to be represent one of the more impactful bats available via free agency this offseason.
Jorge Soler, Marlins (150 wRC+):
After struggling to a below-average .207/.295/.400 slash line in the first year of his three-year, $36MM pact with the Marlins last season, Soler has exploded in 2023 as one of the top power threats in the majors. His .298 ISO ranks fifth among all qualified major leaguers, behind only Martinez, Ohtani, Pete Alonso, and Yordan Alvarez. He’s already clobbered 20 home runs in just 282 plate appearances this season, matching the pace of his 48-homer campaign with the Royals in 2019. Soler has paired that elite power production with an elite 12.8% walk rate that would be a career best over a full season. While he’s still striking out at an elevated 24.1% clip, that figure is still a marked improvement over last season, during which he punched out in 29.4% of his plate appearances.
Like Pederson, Soler is in the midst of his age-31 season, meaning he could be an attractive candidate for multi-year offers from power-needy teams this offseason. Soler also boasts a more palatable platoon split: while he hits lefties far better than righties for his career, he’s still managed a .775 OPS against right-handers in his career, including a .807 figure in 2023. That being said, one potential cause for concern regarding Soler is his health, as the slugger spent the majority of the second half on the shelf with lower back spasms in 2022. If Soler can stay healthy and productive throughout the second half of the 2023 campaign, however, he could put his reputation as one of the sport’s most mercurial hitters to rest and emerge as one of the top offensive players in the coming free agent class, easily eclipsing the $9MM he would leave on the table by opting out of his deal with the Marlins to test free agency.
Andrew McCutchen Plans To Play In 2024, Wants To Remain With Pirates
Andrew McCutchen‘s return to Pittsburgh has thus far been a dream. While the Bucs’ hot start has normalized to a more modest 26-25 record, it still represents a clear step up from the rebuilding and losing baseball of the previous seven seasons, and McCutchen has been a big part of that resurgence. In addition to his expected clubhouse mentorship of the young Pirates team, McCutchen is also having a return to form on the field, hitting .269/.364/.462 with eight homers through his first 184 plate appearances.
After signing a one-year, $5MM deal last winter, McCutchen will be a free agent again this offseason, but he made it clear to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he isn’t viewing 2023 as a farewell tour.
“Tom Brady said he would stop playing when he [stunk]. I don’t want to put it in the same context, but when my body tells me I’ve had enough, then I’ve had enough,” said McCutchen, who turns 37 in October. “My body is still saying, ‘Nah, you’re good. You’re fine.’ ”
Obviously quite a bit can still happen with over four months remaining in the season, but on the surface, McCutchen’s comeback year doesn’t look like a fluke. McCutchen’s BABIP is only .301, his wOBA/xwOBA are almost identical, and most of his other Statcast numbers are above average, including a 43.8% hard-hit ball rate that ranks as his highest since 2015. The right-handed hitter is also posting roughly similar numbers against both lefties and righties, after a dropoff against right-handed pitching contributed heavily to McCutchen’s borderline average numbers from 2020-22.
After playing with the Giants, Yankees, Phillies, and Brewers from 2018-22, McCutchen has regained some stability in returning to Pittsburgh, and as a result he naturally wants to remain with the Pirates in the future.
“As long as things continue to be the way that they are, I’m going to continue to keep going,” McCutchen said. “I want to do it here. I don’t want to do it anywhere else. I don’t want to continue my career on another team…..That ballpark gives me a different boost or jolt of energy that I didn’t really have. I don’t know if it’s familiarity or the comfortability of being in Pittsburgh once again. The surroundings, the vibe when you’re on the field, I didn’t have that anywhere else. It’s good to be able to feel all those things again.”
McCutchen and the Pirates have yet to discuss an extension, though as Mackey notes, a new contract “shouldn’t be much more than a formality” considering how openly McCutchen wants to stay put. From the Pirates’ viewpoint, it’s easy to imagine that the Bucs would want to retain a franchise icon who has continued to be such a productive player.