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Olney On Halladay, Wagner, Bay

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In his ESPN.com column today, Buster Olney notes that many teams are waiting to get involved in the free agent market, meaning there might not be many moves made in the next couple weeks. Here are a few other highlights from Olney's blog:

  • One executive tells Olney that the Blue Jays' chances of moving Roy Halladay are no better than 50/50. Another source suggests that the Jays could have had three top prospects for Halladay last summer, whereas now they could probably only land one star prospect and a second with some major-league potential.
  • Billy Wagner's Type A status could make him undesirable to clubs not wanting to give up any draft picks to sign him. However, Wagner could make himself more attractive by lowering his contract demands. If a team thought they were getting a potentially elite closer at a discount, they'd be more willing to part with a draft pick.
  • Olney hears from a pair of execs that the Red Sox will continue to take the Jason Bay negotiations slowly, and that the team would ultimately prefer to sign Matt Holliday.
  • The Padres likely won't want to pay Kevin Correia a raise through arbitration. The team will try to work out a "moderate-sized deal" with him, and if they can't do it, the right-hander could be non-tendered.
  • Olney reiterates what he wrote in yesterday's blog: it doesn't seem like Adrian Gonzalez is going anywhere.
  • Randy Wolf has received plenty of interest from teams looking at starting pitching.

Red Sox Express Interest In Scutaro, Escobar, And More

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Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald says the Red Sox have kicked the tires on many free agents already, with Marco Scutaro and Kelvim Escobar the newest names.  Others include Rafael Soriano, Matt Holliday, Rick Ankiel, Adrian Beltre, John Lackey, Aroldis Chapman, Billy Wagner, Mike Gonzalez, Alex Gonzalez, and, of course, Jason Bay.  Silverman cautions that not all names connected to the Red Sox have "enduring news value."

Scutaro certainly makes sense for Boston; he's the best available shortstop, considering both the free agent and trade market.  We ranked Scutaro the eighth-best free agent overall, perhaps a reflection of a weaker market this year.  It'd be nice to see Scutaro sign with the Red Sox, as we'd get at least one of our 50 predictions right. 

Aside from committing a multiyear contract to Scutaro, the Sox might have to surrender their #29 pick in the June 2010 draft to the Blue Jays.  Looking at the Elias numbers, it is possible that the Jays get screwed out of a first-rounder again, as they did losing A.J. Burnett last year (of course, the Jays failed to sign James Paxton anyway).  If the Red Sox sign Scutaro and any of Soriano, Gonzalez, Holliday, or Lackey, the Braves, Cardinals, or Angels would get Boston's #29 pick instead and the Jays would get their second-rounder (assuming arbitration is offered to those players).

As Silverman notes, Escobar would fit right in with the John Smoltz/Brad Penny signings of last year.  Those two bombed, but here's the question – what kind of success rate should the Red Sox expect from these one-year pitcher gambles?  It is OK if one out of five works out?

Braves Notes: Soriano, Gonzalez, Wagner

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Mark Bowman of MLB.com discussed some of Atlanta's options in the free agent market, and here are a few of the more notable pieces of news….

  • Relievers Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez "will likely leave Atlanta" for greener free agent pastures, and thus the Braves are looking for new options at the back of their bullpen.  Bowman says the Braves have talked to free agent closer Billy Wagner's representatives and "won't necessarily be scared" by Wagner's Type A status since Soriano and Gonzalez are also both Type A's.  If those two were to sign elsewhere, the compensation that Atlanta would receive would more than make up for the picks they would lose for signing Wagner.  The Braves and Wagner's most recent club, the Red Sox, may end up virtually trading relievers since Soriano and Gonzalez are two names on Boston's lengthy list of possible free agent targets.
  • Bowman lists former Brave Octavio Dotel as a potential set-up option, and Fernando Rodney as a signing who could serve as either a set-up man or a closer.
  • There isn't anything to rumors that Atlanta will try to trade with Detroit for Miguel Cabrera, or sign free agent Jermaine Dye.  Cabrera's big contract is too rich for the Braves' blood, and as for Dye, there is no DH spot in the National League to stash a right fielder who posted a -20 UZR and -24.5 UZR/150 last season.
  • Signing Marlon Byrd would make Jordan Schaefer expendable, Bowman reports.  Byrd wouldn't necessarily solve Atlanta's need for a right-handed outfield bat, however, given that Byrd's career splits against right-handed and left-handed pitching are pretty even — a .769 lifetime OPS against southpaws and a .759 OPS against righties.  Byrd actually hit significantly better against righties (.835 OPS) last season than he did against lefties (.744 OPS).
  • The Braves are prepared to see what other offers Adam LaRoche receives before they decide if they want to bring him back next season.

Orioles Notes: Beltre, Delgado, Wolf, Blalock

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The Orioles are positioned to be buyers in free agency, according to Jeff Zrebiec and Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun.  GM Andy MacPhail says that the club is looking to spend this offseason, but there remains some skepticism in Baltimore as to whether owner Peter Angelos will be willing to open up his checkbook.  If the O's decide to dole out dollars this winter, here are some of the players they will and won't be targeting:

  • Barring a change in organizational plans, you can cross the Orioles off the list of suitors for outfielders Matt Holliday and Jason Bay.
  • The Orioles have contacted the agents of Chone Figgins and John Lackey, but are hardly alone in that regard.
  • Adrian Beltre and Pedro Feliz top the O's wish list to replace Melvin Mora at third base. 
  • At first base, Nick Johnson, Hank Blalock, and Carlos Delgado are options.  We know that Baltimore is not the only club keeping tabs on Delgado, as his last employer is said to be keeping an eye on him as well.  The 37-year-old slugger ranked #43 on Tim's Top 50 Free Agents list, where it is predicted that he will sign with the Orioles.
  • Andy MacPhail & Co. are considering Dodgers pitchers Randy Wolf and Jon Garland, as well as Braden Looper.  MacPhail noted that the club is not afraid to take a chance on a hurler with a history of injuries and high upside.  Former Oriole Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets, and Rich Harden all fit the bill.
  • The O's would gladly add an established closer at the right price.  Billy Wagner, Fernando Rodney, and Mike Gonzalez are mentioned as members of a deep crop of available relievers.
  • It shouldn't be long before the Orioles agree to terms with pitcher Mark Hendrickson as both sides want to get a deal done.  The 6'9 lefty spent time with four different organizations before coming to Baltimore – eight if you count NBA teams.

Braves Rumors: Heyward, Wagner, LaRoche

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We've been hearing for a while that the Braves may trade from starting pitching depth to free up money, but what other moves might we see? MLB.com's Mark Bowman has some answers:

  • Braves GM Frank Wren says there are "a lot of trade conversations going on" around the league.
  • The Braves don't seem concerned about finding another outfielder, because they will consider letting top prospect Jason Heyward start the season in the majors. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the Braves sign an affordable outfielder, in case they decide to keep Heyward in the minors for a couple months.
  • The Braves are interested in Billy Wagner.
  • Free agent Adam LaRoche would be a good fit, but the Braves, who have prospect Freddie Freeman in the system, may hesitate to offer LaRoche a multi-year deal.
  • Frankie Piliere of AOL FanHouse hears that the Braves will deal Derek Lowe or Javier Vazquez.
  • Piliere adds that the market for Rafael Soriano should be strong.

Eight Teams Express Interest In Billy Wagner

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Eight clubs have expressed interest in free agent closer Billy Wagner, according to his agent Bean Stringfellow (Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports reporting).  Stringfellow generously named five of the suitors: the Red Sox, Braves, Nationals, Astros, and Orioles.  The agent says Wagner's Type A status hasn't scared teams off, and that of these five only the Red Sox spoke about a non-closing role.  Stringfellow expects multiyear offers, though Wagner turns 39 in July.

The FOX authors speculate on possibilities for the remaining three teams by mentioning the Tigers, Cubs, Mariners, Rangers, White Sox, Rays and Marlins.

Washington's interest in Wagner and Mike Gonzalez makes you wonder if they'll tender a contract to their current closer, Mike MacDougal.  MacDougal is due a raise on this year's $2.65MM salary.  Perhaps they just like him more for a setup role.

Certainly nothing will happen with Wagner until after December 1st, when we learn definitively whether the Red Sox will offer arbitration.

Billy Wagner Could Accept Arbitration

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Billy Wagner's agent Bean Stringfellow says not to rule out his client accepting an arbitration offer from the Red Sox, according to Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald.  Stringfellow said that prior to a recent meeting with his client, he believed there was no chance Wagner would accept.  Wagner loved his experience with the Red Sox enough that it's now a possibility.  Stringfellow "fully anticipates" an arbitration offer by the Red Sox.  Wagner is a Type A free agent, so the Sox will snag two draft picks if he declines the offer and signs elsewhere.

Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports learned from Stringfellow that six teams called about Wagner so far, all of them interested in him as a closer.  The writers noted that the Tigers, Astros, Rays, Orioles, and Braves have the need.

Rosenthal And Morosi On Harden, Putz, Wagner

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3:35pm: More from Rosenthal and Morosi:

  • The White Sox are expected to add a leadoff man, but Chone Figgins still seems too expensive.
  • John Smoltz is open to starting or relieving next year. He figures to end up in the NL after his failed stint with the Red Sox.
  • Phillies officials "strongly downplayed" the idea that they could trade for Roy Halladay. The NL Champs will focus instead on third base and the bullpen.

12:38pm: Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi are constantly updating their blog at FOX Sports with more info from the GM meetings. Here are some highlights from today:

  • Rich Harden could be a good fit for the Seattle Mariners, especially given his past success in the American League West and the close proximity of his hometown (Victoria, British Columbia) to Seattle.
  • Given their need for some offensive punch, the Mariners will also "kick the tires" on Jason Bay, says one major league source. As ESPN.com's Jason Grey points out, the Mariners have Dustin Ackley and Michael Saunders coming up through the system, so signing an outfielder like Bay to a long-term deal may not appeal to Jack Zduriencik.
  • J.J. Putz's agent Craig Landis says that his client wouldn't mind accepting a setup role. "He has a preference to be a closer, but absolutely will not rule out an eighth-inning job depending upon many factors," says Landis. The factors Landis mentions include location, coaching staff, team strength, and, of course, money.
  • Bean Stringfellow, Billy Wagner's agent, claims that six teams have called about the left-hander, and that all of them are interested in Wagner as a closer. We heard earlier today that Wagner's value could be hurt by his Type A status, but if you believe Stringfellow, it's not looking like a problem so far.
  • The Yankees are "taking it slow" in their discussions with Hideki Matsui.

Red Sox Rumors: Bay, Wagner, Beckett, V-Mart

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Theo Epstein says talks between the Red Sox and Jason Bay are still in their early stages, according to Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald. Here are the details and the rest of Silverman's rumors:

  • Epstein expects Bay to explore free agency, but the Red Sox are willing to wait for the left fielder to do so, at least to an extent.
  • The Red Sox may bring Alex Gonzalez back. They turned down his $6MM option earlier in the week, but the sides could agree on a deal that guarantees the 32-year-old less money.
  • The Red Sox are open to signing Victor Martinez and Josh Beckett to long-term deals, but any such extensions aren't likely to be finalized until much later in the offseason.
  • Epstein expects Billy Wagner to look for a closer's job. He'll have to find a team willing to give up a draft pick if the Red Sox offer him arbitration, since he's a Type A free agent.
  • The Red Sox may bring Rocco Baldelli back.

Olney On Wagner, DeRosa, Betancourt, Wolf

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The free agent rankings are out, so ESPN.com's Buster Olney breaks down the winners and losers. Here are the details from his latest blog post:

  • Billy Wagner is a Type A free agent, so teams will have to surrender a draft pick to sign him if the Red Sox offer arbitration, as expected. This hurts Wagner's value, since he's coming back from Tommy John surgery and teams will hesitate to give up a top pick for an injury risk.
  • Olney wouldn't be surprised to see Mark DeRosa field two and three year offers. The versatile 34-year-old is a Type B free agent, so teams won't have to give up a top pick to sign him.
  • Rafael Betancourt, a Type A free agent, has less leverage with the Rockies than he would have had as a Type B free agent, because few teams would be willing to surrender a top pick to sign the reliever. 
  • Randy Wolf's status as a Type A free agent could chase away some suitors.
  • Other GMs believe the Astros should offer Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins arbitration.
  • If the Giants offer Bengie Molina arbitration, the market for him would diminish.
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