Perrotto’s Latest: Free Agent Predictions
John Perrotto has his Every Given Sunday column up over at Baseball Prospectus. Perrotto offers a list of some educated guesses as to where some of the top free agents in baseball will land, with some surprises here and there. Let’s take a look:
- Perrotto lists the Yankees loading up on starting pitching, landing C.C. Sabathia and Derek Lowe, while the Dodgers land Manny Ramirez after doubling their initial offer to four years, $100MM.
- Perrotto says the Nationals will land Mark Teixeira, as they could be prepared to offer Teixeira – a Maryland native – ten years, $200MM. Turning down that kind of money would certainly be difficult.
- Perrotto has Adam Dunn landing on the North Side of Chicago and having an adventurous time in right field for the Cubs. According to these predictions, he’ll be joined by Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood – neither of whom are going anywhere.
- Perrotto feel Andy Pettitte won’t be back with the Yankees, and feels that he will either take a below-market contract from his hometown Astros or retire. He also pegs Mike Mussina to likely retire, but agrees he’ll be back with the Yankees if he does indeed make a run at 300 wins.
- Other predictions from Perrotto: Raul Ibanez and Francisco Rodriguez to the Mets, Milton Bradley to Toronto, Orlando Cabrera to Minnesota, Casey Blake back to Cleveland, A.J. Burnett to the Orioles, Brian Fuentes to the Angels, Nick Punto to St. Louis, Randy Johnson to the Angels, Jason Giambi to Oakland, and Orlando Hudson to the Mets.
- The list of players who will end up back with their current teams: Ben Sheets, Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, Jamie Moyer, and Jason Varitek, on a two-year $20MM contract, courtesy of Scott Boras.
Twins Rumors: Blake, Escobar, Hardy
Joe Christensen has an update on the Twins’ search for help on the left side of the infield. Minnesota is one of seven teams interested in Casey Blake, according to Blake’s agent Jim McDowell.
Blake hit .274/.345/.463 last year for the Indians and Dodgers this year. He’s been released twice by the Twins, but he could come back to stabilize their third base situation.
Christensen has sources who suggest that the Twins are also targeting Yunel Escobar and J.J. Hardy in trades. If no deal is made, they could re-sign Nick Punto, who played 61 games at shortstop in 2008.
The Twins are also interested in trading for Garrett Atkins, who’s six years younger than Blake.
Miller’s Latest: Olsen, Willis, Blake
Here’s a look at the latest from Scott Miller of CBSSports.com.
- The Braves and Rangers have talked to the Marlins about lefty Scott Olsen.
- The Red Sox have done background work on Dontrelle Willis, stirring up the Willis for Julio Lugo rumors.
- The Twins, Dodgers, and Indians have expressed interest in Casey Blake. Blake’s agent said he anticipates offers ranging from one to three years.
Rangers Rumors: Blalock, Blake, Catchers
Next up we’ll dig into the latest Rangers rumors, courtesy of Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.
- The Rangers are expected to pick up their $6.2MM option on Hank Blalock today. It doesn’t seem that Blalock will spend much time at third base if he’s with the Rangers in 2009. Instead, he’d play first and DH. Of course, a trade is possible.
- The Rangers may look at outside options for third base, and they’ve been in touch with Casey Blake‘s agent. The Rangers have an eye on defense, which might rule out Garrett Atkins. Grant finds Joe Crede questionable, though he might be a decent fit given his glovework.
- The focus of the GM meetings for Texas has been shopping catching for pitching. The main suitors are the Red Sox and Marlins, with the Tigers a fallback. Names in the mix could include Scott Olsen, Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, and Justin Masterson. Over at the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Jeff Wilson profiles the Rangers’ four catchers.
Indians Interested In Blake
According to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, the Indians have expressed interest in bringing third baseman Casey Blake back to Cleveland. Blake stands out in a weak free agent market at the hot corner. The Dodgers are also interested, but they may view other needs as a higher priority. At the least, they should offer him arbitration as a Type B free agent.
Blake’s agent anticipates offers ranging from one to three years. Blake brings the added benefit of versatility, as he can play first base and right field as well.
In other Indians news, agent Rick Thurman plans to meet with the Tribe to discuss his clients. He has Brian Fuentes, Trevor Hoffman, and Jason Isringhausen. The Indians almost signed Hoffman a few years ago.
Dodgers Rumors: Manny, Furcal, Peavy
Dodgers GM Ned Colletti talked to the media yesterday; here’s the latest.
- Tony Jackson of the L.A. Daily News believes Colletti will pursue a competent backup catcher to allow more rest for Russell Martin. A decision is due on Gary Bennett‘s $900K option within seven days.
- So far this offseason, Colletti and Scott Boras have exchanged two voicemails. They’ll meet in person to discuss Manny Ramirez and other Boras clients (Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux, Andruw Jones, maybe Joe Crede) at next week’s GM meetings. Colletti will not put the other team needs on hold to deal with Manny.
- Colletti has had preliminary talks with the agents for Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, and Nomar Garciaparra, while Jeff Kent is expected to retire.
- Colletti intends to acquire a top of the line starting pitcher, but Jake Peavy is unlikely (the Dodgers would have to pay extra due to the same-division factor). Free agents Lowe and C.C. Sabathia may be considered. The Dodgers have seven days to decide on Brad Penny‘s $9.25MM option versus the $2MM buyout.
- The Dodgers would love to have Takashi Saito back, but the situation with his elbow injury is unclear.
- Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones have expressed a desire to be traded through the media, but not formally to the Dodgers.
Shapiro Outlines Indians’ Needs
Indians GM Mark Shapiro spoke to the press today. A few notes:
- Shapiro does not feel comfortable with his team’s upper-level starting pitching, which consists of Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona (and maybe Jake Westbrook when he’s ready). The Indians may have $15MM or so to work with, but Shapiro wouldn’t say whether he’d lean more toward free agency or trades.
- Other needs: closer and infield help. We ran through most of the candidates in the Offseason Outlook. Given the flexibility of Jhonny Peralta and Asdrubal Cabrera, Shapiro could look for help at second or third base.
- Shapiro hinted that Casey Blake could be a good fit back with the Tribe. He won’t be pursuing Manny Ramirez.
Week in Review: 9/14 – 9/20
Another week down here at MLBTR, here’s your review!
- The Brewers fired manager Ned Yost on Monday. Yost has taken a lot of criticism, and while I personally don’t feel like it’s a bad move, it seems like an odd time to disrupt the clubhouse, given that the Brewers are right in the wild card race. Perhaps this was intended to spark the Brewers and act as a wakeup call, but they have just two wins since the move.
- In an attempt to cut payroll, the Tigers may have to move Magglio Ordonez this offseason. Ordonez will make $18MM next year and has options for 2010 and 2011. Anyone else think the Reds should make a serious run at Maggs? A lineup filled with Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion, and Ordonez could be extremely potent, to go along with a rotation anchored by Edinson Volquez, Aaron Harang, and Johnny Cueto.
- Despite their bullpen woes, the Mets are not likely to make a run at either Francisco Rodriguez, or Brian Fuentes either. The Mets’ internal options have been bad, but K-Rod is in for a record-setting deal, and aside from the sheer number of saves, I don’t feel that his numbers stand out to the point where the team that lands him is going to get the full value of that contract. Personally, I think passing is a good decision.
- Are the Royals currently interested in making a move for Braves’ right fielder Jeff Francoeur? The Royals have very few guys with solid OBPs, and adding Francoeur to the everyday lineup doesn’t seem like the route to go. Still, he has a long-standing relationship with Royals GM Dayton Moore, so it could be a valid possibility. The Royals have said they are willing to part with anyone aside from Zack Greinke, Gil Meche, and Joakim Soria.
- The Red Sox and Theo Epstein have agreed to a contract extension.
- Things to think about for in the offseason: Kevin Gregg expects to be traded, Matt Cain wants to stay in San Francisco, Milton Bradley wants a long-term deal and feels he has a 50-50 chance at returning to the Rangers. In the meantime, likely non-tender candidates include both Josh Bard and Erik Bedard.
- Tim updated the Offseason Outlook series with entries for the Athletics, Braves, and Tigers. He also took a look at the Third Base Market, led by Casey Blake.
- And for anyone curious about Manny Ramirez’s end in Boston, here’s Curt Schilling’s take on the situation.
Blake Leads Third Base Market
Here’s a look at the free agent market for third basemen:
Rich Aurilia (37)
Casey Blake (35)
Hank Blalock (28) – $6.2MM club option for ’09 with a $0.25MM buyout
Willie Bloomquist (31)
Aaron Boone (36)
Russell Branyan (33)
Craig Counsell (38)
Joe Crede (31)
Nomar Garciaparra (35)
Wes Helms (33) – $3.75MM club option for ’09
Chipper Jones (37) – $8-11MM vesting option for ’09
Mark Loretta (37)
Fernando Tatis (34)
Ramon Vazquez (32)
Jones won’t hit the market. Blalock and Crede have health issues, while the others would be stretched as starters. Except for Casey Blake. He’s the best free agent option at third base.
Blake, 35, is hitting .282/.351/.480 in 560 plate appearances this year. He’s not much defensively, making eight fewer plays than the average third baseman this year. He’s about average at fielding bunts.
Blake is earning $6.1MM this year. Perhaps he will receive a two-year deal in the $15MM range. The Indians told Blake to keep them in mind, but he hasn’t made any decisions yet. He should have plenty of suitors, possibly including the Twins, A’s, Brewers, Dodgers, and Giants. Blake can also play first base and right field, expanding his options.
Would Dodgers Trade For Beltre?
If Casey Blake returns to Cleveland, would the Dodgers be interested in Adrian Beltre? Bill Shaikin of the LA Times points out Beltre still calls Pasadena home.
The 29 year old third basemen is in the midst of this third consecutive 25 homerun season despite a torn ligament in his left thumb. Writes Shaikin:
"Beltre wouldn’t mind staying in Seattle, but the Mariners need to hire a general manager and get on with rebuilding. Assuming they do, Beltre would love to come back to the Dodgers. ‘If I’m available, I’d be happy to,’ he said. ‘I don’t know what is going to happen. I’d be more than happy to come back to L.A. It’s not under my control.’"
Still, the Mariners don’t have many trade pieces, need to rebuild, and third base will be in high demand this offseason so Beltre won’t come cheap. The Dodgers have given up a lot recently to acquire Manny Ramirez and Greg Maddux and may rather work hard to sign Casey Blake before other teams have a chance. Other options for the Dodgers might be to move Blake Dewitt to third, or pursuing Joe Crede or other less desirable free agents this offseason.