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East Notes: Orioles, Davis, Howard, Nationals, Red Sox

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While the Orioles will make an effort to make competitive offers to their impending free agents, the club’s previously exhibited unwillingness to overpay might lead Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, Matt Wieters and Darren O’Day to new clubs this winter, writes Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. The top offers will likely end up surpassing the early, often conservative estimates, and Connolly notes that Chen could conceivably land a five-year deal, while O’Day could get four years. (I personally agree with each possibility, especially the latter.) Davis, meanwhile, could command $150-200MM over a seven-year term, which would shatter the team’s most expensive contract ever (Adam Jones’ $85.5MM deal). While Connolly notes that the Orioles “should” have the money to make strong pushes to retain their free agents, history is not on their side in retaining their top free agents.

A bit more on the O’s and some other Eastern-division clubs…

  • MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski writes that Baltimore is probably caught between a rock and a hard place with Davis; there’s a large outcry among fans to see Davis return after the Orioles failed to re-sign Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis. However, the O’s will eventually want to make a run at locking up Manny Machado and also need to pursue help for the top of the rotation. As Melewski points out, it would seem difficult for the Orioles to sign Davis, extend Machado and bolster the rotation — or even to accomplish just two of those three goals.
  • While the Phillies traded many of their former stars over the past calendar year, there was no interest from another club in first baseman Ryan Howard, former president Pat Gillick tells CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury. Gillick expressed some surprise that no American League team expressed any interest in swinging a deal for Howard, who despite his contract and platoon issues remains a candidate for part-time DH work. The Phils would, of course, have to eat a huge portion of the $35MM still due to Howard ($25MM in 2016 salary plus a $10MM buyout on his 2017 option), though they were willing to absorb money most of their recent trades of veteran pieces.
  • Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post breaks down the Nationals’ roster, outlining the players that exceeded expectations, those that met expectations and those that failed to meet expectations. Most notably, in doing so, Janes points out that Denard Span, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth were all penciled into the lineup on the same day just twice this season.
  • Red Sox president of baseball operations sees more of the Royals in his team than he does the Blue Jays, writes Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald. Put another way, Dombrowski said last week that he feels the Sox have enough power on their roster and is pleased with the team’s overall low strikeout rate (even though a few players do whiff with regularity). As Silverman writes, pitching and defense — specifically the former of those two elements — will be Dombrowski’s primary focus this offseason.

Heyman On Cespedes, Davis, Mattingly, Phillies

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The Mets seem to love Yoenis Cespedes, and for good reason, but based on talks with Mets people, one rival executive told Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com that he would be “shocked” if the Mets retained him.  After all, Cespedes could be in line for a $150MM+ deal and the Mets are intent on keeping their rotation together for years to come.

The Mets’ other key free agent, Daniel Murphy,  has “made himself millions,” said one scout, in reference to his postseason heroics.  Even though his stock is trending upwards, however, one rival GM said he still thinks the Mets will pass on extending him the $15.8MM qualifying offer.

Here’s a look at more of the highlights from Heyman’s article..

  • The Orioles would appear to have a hard time hanging on to Chris Davis given their usual budget, but Peter Angelos has stated his interest in keeping the slugger and even with a potential ~$200MM asking price, re-signing him hasn’t been ruled out, Heyman writes.  In the most recent edition of Tim Dierkes’ 2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings,  Davis is ranked No. 4 ahead of several notable names, including fellow slugger Yoenis Cespedes.  Tim projects that Davis will be vying for a seven-year deal with a mid-$20MM AAV.
  • “Dodgers higher-ups are said to give Don Mattingly big credit for the way he’s handled the clubhouse,” Heyman writes.  It’s not certain that Mattingly will return in 2016, but Heyman notes that the approval of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke doesn’t hurt his case.
  • Sources confirmed to Heyman that the Phillies have interviewed Royals assistant GM J.J. Picollo and Angels assistant GM Matt Klentak for their GM job.  Both men have been mentioned as candidates for the vacancy.
  • The Cubs love Kyle Schwarber’s bat but they’re still unsure where he’ll end up in the field.  Schwarber is currently slotted in the outfield and it remains to be seen whether he’ll eventually end up behind the plate.
  • Reds bench coach Jay Bell is “thought to have at least come up at some point” in the Marlins’ managerial search, but a source tells Heyman that he is “not in the mix” at this time.
  • Some Padres people could see team exec Moises Alou taking over as manager, but three of Alou’s friends told Heyman that they doubt he’d even want the job.  The known managerial candidates there are Diamondbacks minor-league manager Phil Nevin, former infielder Alex Cora, Diamondbacks coach Andy Green, Angels assistant GM Scott Servais, and ex-Twins manager Ron Gardenhire are said to be candidates for the position, but Heyman hears that Dusty Baker and ex-red Sox catcher Jason Varitek are not candidates at this time.

Duquette, Showalter On Pitching, Davis, Machado, Harvey

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Orioles executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette and skipper Buck Showalter addressed the media together yesterday, as Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports. The pair is set to continue on for 2016, with Showalter explaining that both are committed to putting the club back in contention after a somewhat disappointing year.

Here are some more highlights;

  • Duquette talked about the club’s needs heading into the offseason, saying that “we need to focus on a stronger pitching staff.” As for whether the club can afford to upgrade its rotation and bring back slugger Chris Davis, he made no promises but left open the possibility: “I don’t know what the final market’s gonna be for Chris Davis, but having looked at some of the other contracts, it’s gonna be a lot of money. And we’re gonna have to weigh the competitiveness of the team and the need of the team to staff a strong pitching staff. I don’t know where the money’s going to end up, but we have enough resources in this market to field a competitive team and our aim is to do that again in ’16.”
  • Baltimore is assessing whether to make qualifying offers to Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, and Matt Wieters, per the report. “The qualifying offer is under consideration for all those players,” Duquette said. “The club has to decide that by the end of the World Series, so we’re currently working on that.” It still seems probable that all three will be recipients, though the backstop Wieters seems most likely to avoid the QO.
  • In terms of pursuing offensive additions, Duquette said the focus would be in acquiring players with good on-base skills.
  • While the Orioles would love to extend third baseman Manny Machado, Duquette says that pursuing a new deal with him is not atop the organization’s priority list, as Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports. “It is heartening that Manny wants to play here, we’ve got him for three more years and that’s something we can consider in the offseason but I’ve got to tell you, we got a lot more work to do,” Duquette said. “We’ve got a lot more work to do and the fact that Manny’s gonna be here for the next three years under his current arrangement, doesn’t mean that’s a back-burner item, but we have a lot more urgent things to look at.”
  • Duquette also noted that he has had discussions with Machado’s reps in the past, but said that they “didn’t quite get to a deal.” It was wise of the O’s to try, because Machado’s combination of performance and age figure to make him exceedingly expensive to lock up, even after accounting for his somewhat worrying injury history.
  • Meanwhile, Duquette said that highly-regarded pitching prospect Hunter Harvey will not require surgery, at least for the time being. “The doctors are recommending based upon the healing they’ve seen, they’re recommending he continue to pitch,” said the club’s top baseball decisionmaker. “If he does throw four to six weeks from now and still has an issue, we can do the surgery then. But we’ve sent him to see several doctors and they’re all recommending he continue to throw.”

Orioles’ Owner: Duquette, Showalter Will “Absolutely” Return In 2016

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Though there’s been some reported tension in the Baltimore front office, Orioles owner Peter Angelos was as direct as possible when asked by MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko whether each would return in 2016. “Absolutely, yes,” Angelos replied. The owner went on to say that he would “probably urge them to sign for additional years” once their current contracts, which run through 2018, expire.

Additionally, Angelos stated that his intention is to re-sign first baseman Chris Davis — the highest profile among the six free agents that the Orioles stand to lose. (The others are Wei-Yin Chen, Matt Wieters, Darren O’Day, Gerardo Parra and Steve Pearce.) With a .262/.361/.562 batting line, 47 homers and solid first base defense (to say nothing of the versatility to fill in at a corner outfield position or third base, if needed), Davis has positioned himself as the free-agent market’s premier power threat and will command a contract well in excess of $100MM.

That type of spending has previously been out of Angelos’ comfort zone, as the Orioles have typically operated with a mid-range payroll and have never spent more than $85.5MM on a single contract (Adam Jones holds their current record). Last night, Duquette voiced a similar hope of retaining Davis, though he cautiously noted that the Orioles would be able to sign a contract that has a “semblance of reason” to it.

Kubatko also notes that Duquette and Showalter hope to retain the entirety of the coaching staff for the 2016 campaign, but that’s far from certain at this juncture. Specifically, he writes that pitching coach Dave Wallace has received some interest from other clubs.

Duquette On Pitching Staff, Offseason, Chris Davis

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Orioles general manager Dan Duquette joined Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com on 105.7 The Fan in Baltimore last night following the conclusion of the regular season and discussed a number of topics pertaining to the Orioles’ offseason. As Mewleski writes in summarizing much of the conversation, Duquette believes fixing the team’s pitching staff is his “No. 1 priority in the offseason.”

While he stressed a need for improvement from members of the pitching staff that will be returning for the 2016 season, Duquette also added, “…we’re also going to need to add pitching depth from outside the organization.”

The Orioles have a number of free agents this season, with Wei-Yin Chen and Darren O’Day leading the way among departing pitchers. Chen was unquestionably Baltimore’s best starting pitcher this season, as evidenced by a 3.34 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 40.5 percent ground-ball rate across a career-best 191 1/3 innings. Orioles starters ranked 25th in baseball in 2015 with a 4.53 ERA, and removing Chen from the picture, the other Baltimore starters combined for an alarming 4.85 ERA.

Chen will receive and reject a qualifying offer, so the O’s will at least net a compensatory draft pick if he chooses to sign elsewhere this offseason. He’s clearly due for a considerably larger contract than his initial three-year, $11.388MM deal with the Orioles (which contained a since-exercised $4.75MM club option as well).

The hit to the bullpen is slightly more manageable, though that’s not to undersell O’Day’s value. The Orioles are simply better-equipped to lose an elite relief arm than they are a quality rotation piece; Zach Britton will reprise his role as closer, and he’ll be joined by a quality relief arm in Brad Brach. Brian Matusz, presumably, will return if today’s arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder goes smoothly. Still, the loss of O’Day would sting, as the 32-year-old has a combined 1.92 ERA in his four years with the Orioles.

Turning to the position player side of the equation, Baltimore is set to lose Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, Steve Pearce and Gerardo Parra. While Duquette made general comments about a desire to retain all of those players, he also specifically expressed a desire to retain Davis: “Chris Davis in particular had a really good year. … It’s no secret the club would like to have him to come back and we’re going to do what we can.”

Of course, the question with Davis, a Scott Boras client coming off a 47-homer season, is whether or not Baltimore can afford him. The Orioles’ current franchise-record contract is Adam Jones’ six-year, $85.5MM extension, but re-signing Davis would assuredly mean a new record-setting contract — one well in excess of $100MM. Duquette was asked by Melewski whether or not Davis could fit into the team’s payroll. “We have a very competitive market and we fund our payroll about in the middle and we have some flexibility in our payroll for next year. So, the answer to that question is I believe yes. I believe yes,” he replied. Duquette, though, went on to hedge the answer a bit, noting that a contract would have to have “a semblance of reason to it,” suggesting that the plan of attack won’t be to re-sign Davis at any and all costs.

It’s worth noting that there’s been some reported tension among the Orioles’ decision-makers, in part because of the failure to adequately replace Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis, who departed via free agency last winter. That doesn’t ensure that Duquette and his staff will go to drastic measures to retain Davis, but it’s worth wondering if there will be increased pressure to avoid similar internal scrutiny this offseason.

AL East Notes: Davis, Orioles, Hill

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Orioles first baseman/outfielder Chris Davis said today that he was disappointed that the club never approached him to discuss a new contract during the season, as Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com reports on Twitter. The 29-year-old has frequently mentioned his interest in returning to Baltimore, though a recent report indicates that his representatives and the team did not progress very far when extension talks were last broached. Regardless, it seems as if the O’s would have a good shot at wooing back the league’s home run leader — if, that is, they are willing to play at (or at least near) the top of what figures to be a lively market for his services. Davis called the lack of contact “a little frustrating,” but said that he doesn’t “have hard feelings” as free agency nears.

Here’s more from the AL East:

  • This winter could be one of great change for the Orioles, and manager Buck Showalter notes that it may not come just from the players reaching free agency, as Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports. The organization has a host of players set to qualify for arbitration, and not all of them are obvious tender candidates. “A lot of decisions,” Showalter said. “I’m sure our guys have it wired about the order in which those decisions need to be made.”
  • Red Sox lefty Rich Hill has spun an interesting storyline late in the season, allowing just five earned runs over 29 innings in which he owns an outstanding 36:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. (He was also quite good in Triple-A this year, though it should be noted that he carried a more typical 4.6 BB/9 walk rate.) The 35-year-old tells WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford that he’s ready to hit the open market this winter with vigor. “I’ve never spoke like this before in the past because for me to be humble is extremely important,” he explained. “But in this part of the game you have to go out and stand up for yourself and that’s something I’m looking forward to doing in the offseason. It’s confidence. It’s going out there and saying, ’I can pitch for anybody, against anybody, anytime, anywhere.’ I feel very [full of conviction].” Hill says he is looking for a guaranteed big league deal and a legitimate shot to earn a rotation spot. It’s nearly impossible to gauge what kind of market he’ll have, but that is precisely what will make him so interesting to follow in free agency. The piece is well worth a read to see the veteran’s thoughts after an excellent and unexpected run in the Boston rotation.

AL East Notes: Jones, Davis, Stanton, Bogaerts

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Orioles star Adam Jones continued to express his feelings on an important offseason for the organization, as Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports. The highly-respected veteran said that he thinks re-signing Chris Davis is “probably the highest priority” for the organization this winter. Skipper Buck Showalter addressed the subject in a less direct manner. “We’d like to keep everybody, obviously,” he said. “I think everybody shares that. Let’s see where it goes. We all have our own personal feelings about it. You can probably guess what mine are. Some things you reach for because, let’s be frank, it makes your job easier. But you also know what your job description is.”

Here’s more from the AL East:

  • The Orioles “briefly” pursued extension talks with Davis and his representatives at the Boras Corporation, per Connolly. But despite stated interest from both sides in an ongoing relationship, those discussions never gained much traction.
  • Looking even further back into “what-if” transactional history, the Red Sox had a legitimate chance a few years ago to land Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins, according to ESPNBoston.com’s Gordon Edes. But Miami was insistent that any deal would have to include shortstop Xander Bogaerts, and that proved a sticking point that prevented further progress.
  • The Red Sox have obviously received exactly what they hoped for when they placed a high value on Bogaerts. As he turns 23 today, the shortstop is putting the finishing touches on an outstanding season in which he’s been worth about 4.5 to 5 wins above replacement. The same holds true, of course, of the versatile Mookie Betts. (He’ll reach 23 years of age within the week.) Those performances raise the possibility of extension talks, says Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, who analyzes the history of similarly-situated young players as well as that of new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

East Notes: Sandoval, Ramirez, Red Sox, Phillies,

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We discussed the West earlier tonight. Here’s the latest from the East:

  • Red Sox third baseman Pablo Sandoval is expected to miss the rest of the season with pneumonia, writes John Tomase of WEEI.com. This comes just a couple days after fellow offseason signee Hanley Ramirez was shut down for the year with a shoulder injury. Sandoval hit .245/.292/.366 on the year with 43 runs scored and 47 RBI. Ramirez managed just .249/.291/.426 with 59 runs and 53 RBI. Advanced metrics labelled both players as terrible defenders this season (Sandoval at least has a history of solid defense). Undoubtedly, the pair was expected to produce about twice as many runs with passable defense. Had they performed to those expectations, Boston’s 6.5 game deficit in the Wild Card race could be a lead.
  • Boston has three potential candidates to man first base in 2016, writes Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. The club plans to train Ramirez at the position after he failed to adjust to the outfield. Undoubtedly, Red Sox personnel hope first base can help Ramirez to stay healthy. The other internal option is Travis Shaw. He’s done enough to earn another look after hitting .282/.348/.511 with 11 home runs over 210 plate appearances. Shaw, 25, was never a highly touted prospect. The team may prefer to use him as depth. If they’re uncomfortable with Ramirez and Shaw, they could always dig into the coffers for Chris Davis. Personally, I expect any big free agent investments to be in the rotation.
  • The Phillies have their own first base conundrum to solve, writes Jake Kaplan of the Philadelphia Inquirer. They anticipate an influx of talent next season, but first base will probably remain a time share between Ryan Howard and Darin Ruf. Howard will be in the final guaranteed season of a five-year, $125MM extension. Previous attempts to swap him to the junior circuit have turned up zero trading partners. Howard still hits well against right-handed pitchers while Ruf handles southpaws with aplomb. The platoon has combined for about -1 WAR this season, but they’ve also bashed a combined 33 home runs with 78 runs and 108 RBI in 766 plate appearances. That’s roughly a third of the team’s run production. Clearly, they can have some value to the club so long as they avoid same-handed pitchers.
  • Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond is frustrated with his 2015 season, he tells Bill Ladson of MLB.com. Desmond, 30, is by far the top shortstop entering free agency, but he’s coming off his first below average offense campaign since 2011. Desmond hit just .232/.286/.382 on the year. When asked if he would accept a qualifying offer, Desmond hinted it was possible.

Heyman’s Latest: D-Backs, Freeman, O’s, Samardzija

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Jon Heyman of CBS Sports has published his latest Inside Baseball column and begins by taking a look at his 25 “heroes” of the 2015 season. Here are some highlights from the rest of the piece…

  • Adding a top-tier starting pitcher and a top closer are the main priorities of the Diamondbacks this offseason, Heyman hears. While the D-Backs probably won’t make a run at “the” top starter (presumably David Price), the team does have some money to spend on a starting pitcher. Previous reports have also stated that the Diamondbacks will renew trade talks for Aroldis Chapman this winter, though the asking price on him has, in the past, been said to be exorbitant.
  • The Braves have shown a willingness to listen to trade offers on almost anyone, but sources tell Heyman that Freddie Freeman probably isn’t going anywhere. Atlanta is also said to be open to a return for Craig Kimbrel — the initial trade was made for the purpose of shedding Melvin Upton’s contract — though the ’pen will receive a boost when Shae Simmons, Jason Grilli and Chris Withrow are healthy.
  • The Orioles will make qualifying offers to Chris Davis and Wei-Yin Chen but are not yet certain whether to extend one to Matt Wieters, who has had somewhat of a rough season in his return from Tommy John.
  • Clay Buchholz has been out since July with an elbow injury and will not return this season, according to Heyman, but the Red Sox will exercise his $13MM option for 2016 if he looks good in a bullpen session Sunday. Whatever happens, the Red Sox will look for additional pitching this winter. (Last night, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reported that Buchholz still hopes he can pitch an inning in the Red Sox’ last game of the season.)
  • The White Sox considered offering Jeff Samardzija an extension of around $80MM when they acquired him last season, but Samardzija wanted to test free agency. Heyman reports that Samardzija was disappointed the White Sox didn’t deal him in July, since a deal would have allowed him to pitch for a contender and would have prevented him from being extended a qualifying offer.
  • Yankees assistant GM Billy Eppler still looks like the favorite for the Angels GM job, and Rangers assistant GM Thad Levine is another possibility. Heyman also mentions that the name of Padres and Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers has also come up.
  • Though Eppler may the favorite in Anaheim, he’s also one of two finalists for the Mariners’ GM post, with the other being Jerry Dipoto. Each candidate is in line for a second interview, which could be more than Dana Brown of the Blue Jays and interim GM Jeff Kingston get. Each has interviewed once, as have others, per Heyman.
  • Incoming Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro will retain GM Alex Anthopoulos. Of course, as Heyman notes, that’s hardly surprising given how well the Jays have played recently.
  • Nationals ownership, is, perhaps unsurprisingly, very disappointed with the 2015 team. While nothing is certain, however, GM Mike Rizzo seems likely to return for 2016.

Cafardo On Duquette, Showalter, Hunter, Howard

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe caught up with ex-Red Sox GM Ben Cherington.  Cherington reflected on some of the decisions he regrets but he also recognizes that he left Boston with a solid core of young talent to build upon going forward.  Many of those young players remain in Boston because Cherington resisted the urge to put together a package for Cole Hamels.

“We had a lot of conversations with [the Phillies]. I just didn’t want to give up our core and we couldn’t find another way to get it done,” Cherington said of the ace, who ultimately went to the Rangers.

Here’s more from today’s column..

  • There’s tension over Orioles owner Peter Angelos not allowing GM Dan Duquette to pursue a higher-profile and higher-paying job with the Blue Jays, major league sources tell Cafardo.  Sources also tell The Boston Globe scribe that Angelos has not compensated Duquette for the lost opportunity.  All in all, it’s a slight that baseball execs Duquette to be “bush league,” Cafardo writes.
  • There’s also been talk of friction between Duquette and manager Buck Showalter, Cafardo writes, although both men are signed through 2018.  Meanwhile, there’s fear that the Orioles will not spend the money necessary to retain free agents like Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, and Wei-Yin Chen.
  • The Twins want Torii Hunter back for at least one more season, according to a team official who spoke with Cafardo.  For his part, the veteran says that he’s going year to year. In 516 plate appearances this season, Hunter has posted a batting line of .245/.298/.414 which isn’t really in line with his career offering of .277/.332/.462.  However, he has played well in right field and the Twins like his veteran leadership.
  • The Phillies had a scout watching the Orioles last week in the event that the O’s lose Davis in free agency and gain interest in Ryan Howard.  Howard is not be expected to replicate Davis’ production, of course, but Cafardo notes that he still has power and would be better suited as a DH.
  • There’s “continued interest” in Red Sox utilityman Brock Holt, Cafardo writes.  Holt’s opportunities in the Red Sox’s outfield may be limited and new team president Dave Dombrowski should get a fair amount of offers this winter for him.
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