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Most Improved Free Agent Stock

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It may be premature to talk about the most improved free agent stock – after all it’s mid-September. We still have two weeks left in the regular season. More importantly, the playoffs can be a massive boon to October’s top performers. Big numbers on the biggest stage are often parlayed into bigger paydays. For now, let’s just make do with what we know.

When thinking about the players who most improved their stock, there are two angles we can consider. Some players entered the season with sky high expectations. All they had to do was get through the current campaign at a level similar to their career rates to ensure a free agent windfall. David Price and Zack Greinke have outdone themselves and could be in line to earn even more than originally conjectured.

Price, 30, has long been viewed as a reliable left-handed ace. He’s largely matched his terrific 2014 campaign, and he’s turned up the gas since joining the Blue Jays. Prior to the season, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranked him as the third best free agent with a chance to reach $200MM. A minor injury or lackluster season could have easily pushed him down closer to $100MM. Dierkes’ most recent update to the power rankings has Price as the top free agent with a realistic chance to exceed Clayton Kershaw’s seven-year, $215MM pact with the Dodgers. As an added bonus, Price won’t come with a qualifying offer attached since he was traded at the deadline.

While it was clear that 31-year-old Greinke would opt out of his contract with the Dodgers (assuming health), the success he has enjoyed was not wholly expected. Projection systems tabbed Greinke for around a 3.00 ERA this year. Instead, he’s worked to a 1.65 ERA through 30 starts. Home run suppression and a .231 BABIP have helped matters, but his dominance has allowed him to crawl out from under Kershaw’s shadow. Prior to the season, Dierkes thought another typical season from Greinke could get him $100MM in new money. Now he thinks Greinke could exceed Jon Lester’s six-year, $155MM deal.

Another pair of soon-to-be free agents may have increased their value by nearly nine figures this year. In a monetary sense, these are the clear victors of the most improved stock game. Neither slugger was a consensus top free agent prior to the season, but they’ll certainly be treated like royalty in a few months.

First baseman Chris Davis entered the year as an enigma. After a 53 home run campaign in 2013, Davis followed with a miserable 2014 season. For what it’s worth, I expected 2015 production somewhere around the mid-point between the two platform years. The 29-year-old has definitely exceeded that by a wide margin. Back in February, Dierkes considered Davis as an also-ran for the top 10 free agents list (along with Steve Pearce, Doug Fister, and Mat Latos among others). Now he’s fourth in the power rankings. Dierkes believes a seven-year deal worth more than $140MM is well within reach. I agree.

Right there with Davis is Yoenis Cespedes. Like Davis, he missed Dierkes’ top 10 before the season. Now he’s fifth and in a virtual tie with Davis. Dierkes projects the same seven-year contract of more than $20MM per season for Cespedes. The outfielder will turn 30 in a month and has reached new career heights with 35 home runs. His acquisition by the Mets is a big part of their current success. He’s in a bit of a mini-slump going 0-for-17 over his last four games. A slow end to the season and playoffs could remind buyers of his previous production. Alternatively, a noisy postseason could propel him past Davis.

This all begs the question – who most improved their stock? Is it the star who has all-but-secured a $200MM payday? The aging ace who’ll receive another massive contract? Or is it one of the surging sluggers?

Quick Hits: Free Agents, Heyward, Cespedes, Greinke

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In the latest edition of his 10 Degrees column, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan looks at what some of the offseason’s top free agents are likely to fetch on the open market after conversations with two GMs, two agents and two front office personnel executives.  All agree that David Price is a lock to receive more than $200MM though contract predictions fluctuate with other players.  Chris Davis, for instance, inspired guesses that ranged from a $60MM deal to a $150MM deal.  I agree with Passan that guessing on the high side is the better option, since power bats are at a premium; nine figures seems the minimum for Davis’ next contract.  Here’s some more from Passan’s column and elsewhere around baseball…

  • Jason Heyward “will be the bellwether of this market,” as his unique case as a player who brings youth (26 years old) and elite defense to free agency rather than an elite bat will set the tone for other signings.  His youth could play a different role in the contract, as one GM thinks Heyward could sign an eight-year, $175MM deal with an opt-out clause after four years.  This way Heyward could hit free agency again when he’s only 30 years old and in good position for another major contract.  Passan notes that Heyward is represented by Excel Sports Management, and Excel’s Casey Close has negotiated high-profile opt-out clauses in recent contracts for clients Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke (though it’s worth mentioning that Heyward isn’t represented by Close himself).
  • Two free agents who were dealt at the trade deadline have greatly harmed (Johnny Cueto) and helped (Yoenis Cespedes) their chances at a major deal this winter due to their performances with their new clubs.  Passan notes that Mets ownership finds itself in a Catch-22 with Cespedes.  Letting him leave would enrage a fanbase that already feels the club doesn’t spend enough, yet Cespedes has enough flaws in his game that the Mets could easily find themselves burned by giving him a massive long-term contract.  All six of Passan’s sources feel Cespedes’ market will begin at $125MM and perhaps go as high as $160MM.
  • Zack Greinke’s age will keep him from getting a seven- or eight-year commitment when he opts out of his Dodgers contract, though Passan feels Greinke could look to set a new record for highest average annual value in the form of a five-year, $175MM deal.
  • In his ranking of the five open GM positions in baseball, Joel Sherman of the New York Post lists the Red Sox job as the most appealing given the team’s financial resources, passionate fanbase and existing talent in both the majors and minors.  The downside is that the Boston job carries a particular amount of pressure, and a new GM may not have autonomy with Dave Dombrowski leading the baseball operations department.  Sherman lists the pros and cons of the Red Sox, Phillies, Mariners, Angels and Brewers openings, though as one executive puts it, “There is no perfect job. If you wait for the perfect one, you will wait forever….You have to figure out how to accentuate the positives and fix or navigate around the warts.”
  • Former Royals hurler Brian Bannister is the first Red Sox director of pitching analysis and development, a position specifically created by Dombrowski to match Bannister’s unique skill-set.  Peter Gammons, in his latest piece for GammonsDailycom, looks at the work Bannister has already done with Boston’s pitchers in his former capacity as a pro scout, and how Bannister is blending mound experience with knowledge gleaned from analytical data.
  • Matt Harvey is scheduled to make his next start against the Yankees on Sunday, a Mets team source tells Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News.  Harvey was only supposed to start once more after that, though manager Terry Collins told Ackert and other reporters that workload wouldn’t do enough to keep the ace sharp for the playoffs.  “We got to get him on the mound a little more consistently,” Collins said.  “Every 12 days is not a good scenario….We have to have Matt Harvey ready to pitch.  He doesn’t need to have 15 days off. We got to have him ready.”  The Mets could use Harvey on regular turns in the rotation but just on limited innings and pitch counts in each outing, with a reliever ready to “piggyback” the rest of the outing.

AL East Notes: Ortiz, Parra, Orioles, Red Sox

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Red Sox slugger David Ortiz has hit his 500th career home run. Ortiz, 39, entered the day with 498 home runs. He bashed a pair of homers off southpaw Matt Moore at notoriously pitcher friendly Tropicana Field. He now has 33 home runs at that venue per Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune (via Twitter). He’s the 27th player in major league history to reach the vaunted milestone. He could pass Eddie Murray (504 home runs) before the end of the season. Gary Sheffield (509 home runs) may be a stretch.

  • The Orioles will probably make a push to re-sign outfielder Gerardo Parra, opines Brittany Ghirolli of MLB.com. The O’s acquired the then hot-hitting Parra from the Brewers at the trade deadline. Since the trade, he’s batted just .227/.256/.380. He’s also popped five home runs with 23 runs scored and 13 RBI in 159 plate appearances. His defensive ability and versatility are bonus points in his favor. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently evaluated Parra’s free agent stock, concluding that it was too early to handicap the market for Parra.
  • It’s possible that Baltimore won’t re-sign any of their impending free agents, writes Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. The club may find more dollar-for-dollar value by passing on Matt Wieters. Chris Davis is sure to cost a boatload, while Wei-Yin Chen should be in demand as a reliable, left-handed starter. Darren O’Day is coming off an All-Star appearance that could buff his potential earnings. Re-signing Parra will likely depend on the demand for his services. Lastly, the club may view Steve Pearce’s role as replaceable via a club-controlled asset.
  • The Red Sox planned to ride a wave of youthful stars to the pennant in 2014, writes Richard Justice of MLB.com. When Plan A failed, they acquired Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, and Rick Porcello to reinforce the 2015 roster and beyond. As we know, the club has also failed this season. Luckily, the youth wave of 2014 is still mostly with the club and starting to make good on its promise. Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Rusney Castillo, and Blake Swihart have all hit well this year – particularly since July 30. While the Sox undoubtedly have a busy offseason ahead of them, the club-controlled core should provide plenty of flexibility and optimism for 2016.

AL East Notes: Sanchez, Davis, Nava

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The Yankees have announced that they’ve promoted catcher Gary Sanchez and outfielder Slade Heathcott from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Heathcott has played in the bigs before, but Sanchez hasn’t. Sanchez isn’t likely to play much, but his arrival will surely pique the interest of Yankees fans. The organization gave Sanchez a $3MM bonus out of the Dominican Republic in 2009, and since then, he’s shown good power (with 89 minor league home runs) and a very strong throwing arm, although he hasn’t received great reviews for other aspects of his work behind the plate. MLB.com currently ranks Sanchez as the Yankees’ seventh-best prospect. His climb through the minors has been relatively slow, but he’s still just 22 and has hit .274/.330/.485 between Scranton and Double-A Trenton this season. Here’s more from the AL East.

  • Chris Davis’ big second half with the Orioles has him primed to land a nine-figure contract, Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com writes. Davis has hit a ridiculous .307/.413/.704 in 223 plate appearances since the break, bringing his full-season numbers up to .262/.355/.558 with 41 homers. In a recent edition of the MLBTR Newsletter, Tim Dierkes suggested that Davis’ agent Scott Boras could ask for eight years this winter. It seems unlikely he’ll get it, but as Dierkes noted, even a six-year deal would push Davis past $100MM.
  • Rays outfielder Daniel Nava was surprised when the Red Sox designated him for assignment in May, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes. Nava struggled with a hand injury and hit just .152/.260/.182 in 78 plate appearances with Boston this year, but he points out that he had hit much better in the second half in 2014 — he batted .238/.330/.310 in the first half and .297/.359/.405 in the second. “The reason why I didn’t (see it coming) is because the previous year I was in the same situation and I had turned it around,” he says. (Of course, Nava is already 32 and in the midst of his arbitration seasons, so he no longer even if he were to have improved somewhat, his utility to a last-place Boston team would have been limited.) Nava adds that he misses Red Sox fans and the historic environment of Fenway Park.  “Just feeling this, it’s not like Boston,” he says. “It’s not a knock on this. It’s just different. That’s a fact. Those fans are special.”

AL Central Notes: Sano, Cueto, Indians

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Miguel Sano’s debut with the Twins has beeen nothing short of outstanding, and in light of that success, 1500 ESPN’s Derek Wetmore reexamines Sano’s highly publicized signing with the Twins as an international free agent back in 2009. Sano, whose signing is chronicled in the 2011 documentary Ballplayer: Pelotero, signed with the Twins for $3.15MM six years ago. The Pirates were said to have made an offer of $2.6MM at the time, and Wetmore spoke to a person involved in the negotiations that said the Yankees made an offer in the $3MM range as well. Mutual respect between the Twins and agent Rob Plummer played a large role in Sano’s eventual decision, Wetmore writes, and VP of player personnel Mike Radcliff gave longtime Twins international scout Fred Guerrero quite a bit of credit as well when speaking to Wetmore about the signing. The 2009 international class has a chance to be one of the best — if not the best — in Twins history, as Minnesota not only landed Sano, but Top 100 prospect Jorge Polanco ($775K) and likely Top 100 prospect Max Kepler ($800K) as well.

Here’s more from the AL Central…

  • Johnny Cueto’s struggles with the Royals are cause for concern among fans, but manager Ned Yost expressed confidence that he can turn it around following a tough loss yesterday, writes Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star. Cueto, who has a 4.86 ERA in eight starts with the Royals and has yielded 21 runs over his past 20 innings, is believed by the team to be experiencing mechanical issues — specifically his shoulder flying open. However, Yost and Cueto didn’t feel that was the issue on Sunday, and the right-hander plans to spend extra time watching video to pinpoint the source of his struggles. Cueto was acquired to be the team’s postseason ace, writes ESPN’s Christina Kahrl, but prolonged struggles could lead to Yordano Ventura taking over as the team’s top arm. Kahrl dives into some of the numbers behind Cueto’s recent troubles, noting that his velocity remains sound, but he’s seeing less break on his slider, which could be causing problems.
  • Despite the departure of president Mark Shapiro, Indians fans shouldn’t expect to see a dramatic change in the club’s philosophy or approach to free agency, writes Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer in his latest mailbag piece. Those who had reported to Shapiro will now instead report to owner Paul Dolan, and Dolan’s influence will still of course be strong. Signing players such as Chris Davis won’t be happening this winter, Hoynes says confidently, and he doesn’t expect to see top prospects such as Clint Frazier or or Bradley Zimmer traded in order to provide immediate offensive upgrades, either.

Quick Hits: Hart, Phillies, Davis

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CJ Nitkowski of FOX Sports takes a look at the upcoming generation of MLB managerial candidates. He provides some interesting notes on five names to watch: D’Backs scout and special assistant Todd Greene, White Sox third base coach Joe McEwing, Dodgers director of player development Gabe Kapler, and Alex Cora and Raul Ibanez, each of whom currently work in the media.

Here are some more scattered notes from around the league:

  • The Pirates announced today that first baseman Corey Hart is finished playing this year. Hart, who signed a one-year, $2.5MM deal with Pittsburgh over the offseason, had been attempting to make a late-season return, but his health and productivity have been lacking all year. He’ll return to the free agent market after the season, but he hasn’t been a significant contributor since 2012 and his future looks murky.
  • While the Phillies possess an ugly win-loss record, as had been expected, the organization has shown real progress this year, CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury writes. Rival scouts have looked favorably upon the young players acquired in Philadelphia’s numerous recent trades, says Salisbury, and the team’s best higher-level talent has transitioned well thus far to the majors. There’s more to be done, of course, but it isn’t hard to see a promising path forward — especially given that the big-budget Phils now have less than $100MM in total future commitments on their books.
  • Slugger Chris Davis means more to the Orioles than his home run tallies, writes Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun. Of course, bringing him back in free agency will require a sizable commitment, particularly now that Davis — who has yet to turn 30 — is closing in on 40 home runs with a 138 wRC+. It doesn’t hurt that Davis has shown the ability to play a serviceable corner outfield (UZR views him as a slight positive, DRS as a slight negative) in addition to a solid first base. He’ll hold appeal to a variety of teams this winter.

Heyman’s Latest: Castro, Shapiro, Davis, Anderson, Brewers, Phils

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Within his latest Inside Baseball column, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that displaced Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro has joined Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez as struggling former stars that have cleared waivers. (The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo first reported that Ramirez and Sandoval cleared waivers.) The Cubs had a few trade discussions pertaining to Castro prior to the July 31 non-waiver deadline, per Heyman, and they’ll likely revisit trade talks this winter. As for Sandoval, Heyman hears that there are not active discussions at the moment, although one can easily imagine new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski exploring ways to shed that sizable commitment this offseason.

Some more highlights from Heyman’s latest column…

  • Indians president Mark Shapiro has been given permission to meet with the Blue Jays about their opening, per the report. The veteran Cleveland executive is “believed” to sit atop Toronto’s wish list, and Heyman says there’s an increasing expectation that he’ll end up moving over to the Jays.
  • Chris Davis is in line for a significant payday this offseason, but the Orioles aren’t likely to be the ones writing the check. Heyman hears that two years ago, following Davis’ brilliant 53-homer campaign, agent Scott Boras was eyeing Joey Votto’s 10-year, $225MM contract as a comp. Granted, Davis’ reduced production since that time has almost certainly lowered the asking price, but I personally agree with the assessment of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes in his latest Free Agent Power Rankings: Davis is in line for a nine-figure contract, which seems beyond Baltimore’s traditional comfort levels.
  • Though some were surprised to see Brett Anderson land a $10MM guarantee from the Dodgers due to his injury history, Heyman hears that the Dodgers may be considering an even more surprising move: extending a qualifying offer to the injury-prone hurler. Anderson, in my eyes, would be a risky candidate for such an offer, but there’s reason enough that the Dodgers could make that call. For one, the team can afford a $16MM investment in an injury-prone pitcher, and Anderson’s worth close to that kind of cash when healthy. Secondly, Anderson’s coming off one of the lone healthy seasons of his career and may see this as his best chance to cash in on a multi-year deal. He could see the only downside as another one-year deal worth $10MM+, meaning he’d be risking around $6MM for a chance at quite a bit more.
  • The Brewers are expected to take “well into next month” in their search for a new general manager and are interested in pursuing non-traditional candidates. We’ve heard several possibilities batted around, and Heyman says he’s heard at least some chatter about Athletics assistant GM Dan Kantrovitz and Red Sox special assistant Jerry Dipoto.
  • While the Phillies could have their own front office changes to make, Heyman says it’s still possible that Ruben Amaro Jr. could not only stay in the organization in some capacity, but keep the GM chair.
  • In a separate piece, Heyman also takes an interesting look at the thirty best deals made over the last year. There’s certainly a good case to be made for his top choice: the Blue Jays’ acquisition of Josh Donaldson.

Orioles Hope To Re-Sign Davis

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The Orioles plan to re-sign at least some of their impending free agents, GM Dan Duquette told fans and reporters at an annual event including Rich Dubroff of CSN Baltimore. Duquette highlighted one power hitter by name, saying “we do want to sign some of our key players for the future, and Chris Davis is one of them.” In addition to Davis, Baltimore currently has seven impending free agents including Matt Wieters, Wei-Yin Chen, Gerardo Parra, Darren O’Day, Steve Pearce, and Nolan Reimold. The club probably can’t sign them all, tweets Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.

Specifically regarding Davis, the Orioles may have to compete in a thin market for first baseman. Our free agent tracker lists just eight potential free agents at the position. Of those, Edwin Encarnacion will be retained unless he sustains a major injury. Justin Morneau also has an affordable $9MM option although he has missed most of the 2015 season with injury. Mike Napoli and Pearce are probably the next biggest names at the position.

The lack of free agent first basemen could push Davis’ value north of $100MM, according to Mike Petriello of FanGraphs. The 29-year-old is in the midst of his second best season, slashing .257/.341/.541 with 32 home runs. However, Davis showed last year that there is some downside to his power happy approach. The club may have to weigh whether it makes better sense to commit to Davis or sign multiple other players.

Among the other free agents, Wieters, Chen, and O’Day will be the most difficult to replace. Wieters, 29, missed the early portion of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery. He’s battled a few nagging injuries since his return. He appeared to be breaking out in 2014 prior to sustaining the elbow injury. This season, his strikeout rate has spiked to 24.6 percent – up from a career average of 18.7 percent. It’s worth wondering if that number will regress with full health.

MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote about Chen recently in a free agent profile, comparing his potential earnings to Bronson Arroyo, Jason Vargas, and Ricky Nolasco. Including inflation, that would seem to peg him for a two to four year deal worth about $12MM to $14MM per season. The Orioles plan to make Chen a qualifying offer, per CBS’ Jon Heyman. That may affect the market for his services.

AL East Notes: Wieters, Davis, Rays, Kelly

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Matt Wieters left the third inning of last night’s Orioles loss to the Mariners with a right hamstring strain, and he’ll be re-evaluated on Friday when the club is back in Baltimore.  All parties are hopeful that Wieters can avoid the DL, and the catcher told reporters (including Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun) that “I think we caught it before it became a severe strain. The hamstring got tight and it was getting tighter. I think we stopped before we did any serious damage to it.”  Losing Wieters would obviously be a blow to the Orioles’ postseason chances, and another DL stint also wouldn’t do any favors to Wieters’ free agent stock this offseason.  The catcher already missed the first two months of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery but had been hitting well (.278/.305/.449 with five homers) in 167 PA since his return.

Some more from around the division…

  • Chris Davis has rebounded from a miserable 2014 to have a big 2015 season, with improved health and better performance against fastballs as two major reasons for his resurgence, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello writes.  With a thin market of free agent first basemen this winter, Petriello thinks Davis could make a big cash-in on the open market this offseason, perhaps even a contract topping the $100MM mark.
  • Desmond Jennings and Drew Smyly are both slated to return from DL stints to the Rays this week, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes.  Smyly’s return is the more tenuous of the two, as he didn’t pitch well in a recent rehab start.  He’ll throw a bullpen session on Thursday to determine whether he’ll make his scheduled start against the Rangers on Sunday.
  • With Koji Uehara done for the season, Joe Kelly could be the Red Sox answer at closer both for the rest of 2015 and maybe in the future, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes.  Kelly, for his part, tells The Boston Herald’s Jason Mastrodonato that he has no interest in switching to a bullpen role.
  • Has the Jacoby Ellsbury signing already been a bust for the Yankees?  Brendan Kuty of the Star-Ledger poses the questions and breaks down both sides of the argument, concluding that it’s still too early to judge the seven-year, $153MM contract before even two full seasons have passed.  Ellsbury’s underachieving, injury-plagued 2015 season, however, is a cause for concern for the Yankees, especially since Ellsbury was still expected to perform like a top-level player for at least the first few years of the deal.

Stark’s Latest: Giants, Hamels, Price, Orioles, Gallardo, Alvarez

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The latest deadline rumblings from Jayson Stark of ESPN.com…

  • The Giants are still searching for starting pitching, but they’re only looking at top-of-the-rotation arms to pair with Madison Bumgarner in a playoff rotation, Stark hears. San Francisco has checked in on both David Price and Cole Hamels, but they’re not considered a favorite to land Hamels from the Phillies, and there’s still no definitive sense that Price has been made available by the Tigers. Yesterday, Stark reported that the Dodgers and Rangers were emerging as the favorites in the Hamels market.
  • The Orioles are speaking with other clubs to get a feel for what kind of return they could get if they market Matt Wieters, Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, Tommy Hunter and Bud Norris, Stark hears. However, rival clubs feel the O’s will only sell if they slide to six or more games back in the Wild Card race — and they’re 3.5 games out with four to play before the deadline at this time. If they make up a bit of ground, they could add a bat, but Stark says it’d likely be a bench piece as opposed to a bigger name. Baltimore GM Dan Duquette said last week he would be a buyer regardless of the team’s play, though others have suggested that the Orioles could still end up selling if they struggle enough.
  • Adding help that can be controlled beyond 2015 is the priority for the Rangers, which is why they’re targeting Hamels, Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner while also listening to offers on Yovani Gallardo. However, according to Stark, those moves aren’t linked, and Texas could acquire a rotation piece for 2016 but also hang onto Gallardo. Personally, I think Gallardo’s pitched well enough to warrant a qualifying offer. A draft pick and improved odds of making a late run (especially if they do add another rotation arm) present enough value that the Rangers shouldn’t feel obligated to simply take the best offer for Gallardo if the proposed packages aren’t all that impressive.
  • The Pirates are now likely to hang onto Pedro Alvarez after shopping him without success for several weeks. They’ve asked the Brewers, White Sox and Rays about Adam Lind, Adam LaRoche and James Loney, respectively, but with Alvarez in the fold, they’re not likely to make a move at first. Stark adds that multiple sources downplayed the recent reports connecting Pittsburgh to the Red Sox’ Mike Napoli.
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