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Jason Varitek Tests Positive For COVID-19

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Jason Varitek’s wife revealed on Twitter today that the former catcher tested positive for COVID-19, writes Christopher Smith of Masslive.com.

Varitek is preparing for his first season as a full-time coach on Alex Cora’s robust coaching staff in Boston. Varitek will be the Game Planning Coordinator, presumably drawing on experience from his playing days as a game-managing backstop for the Red Sox. The role figures to be an extension of his previous responsibilities as a special assistant and catching coach, a position he’s held since 2012. He’s been a member of the Boston organization since July 31, 1997 when he arrived with Derek Lowe as part of a deadline deal with the Mariners.

Varitek, of course, is a legend in Boston for his role on the 2004 and 2007 World Series winners. He served as a regular catcher with the Red Sox from 1998 until 2011, finishing his playing career with a .256/.341/.435 line across 1,546 games amassing 5,839 plate appearances. He made three All-Star teams and totaled 24.2 bWAR.

Report: MLB Looking To Delay 2021 Season Until At Least May

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Amidst the continued uncertainty of the coronavirus pandemic, Major League Baseball is hoping to push the start of the 2021 season into May, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes.  This would mean a delayed start to Spring Training and a shorter season than the normal 162-game schedule.

“I don’t see any way spring training starts in February,” an American League owner said.  “Zero chance of that.  I don’t care if we play 140 games, 120 games or 80 games, we have to make sure everyone is safe to do this right.”

The league and the owners want players and all team personnel to be vaccinated against COVID-19 before arriving at spring camp, which doesn’t seem feasible by early-to-mid-February (the usual start date for Spring Training) given that coronavirus vaccines are still in the early stages of distribution.

“I think there will be significant pressure for players to get the vaccine first before they go to Spring Training, and if that has to be moved back to April and play 130 games, so be it,” an unnamed National League owner tells Nightengale.  “But to have 162 games, and start Spring Training at the normal time without players being vaccinated, that’s just crazy.  Does Arizona and Florida, with their cases spiking, really want teams with about 125 people in each organization coming to town without vaccines?”

Delaying the season would also allow for not only players, but fans to be vaccinated as the treatments become more widespread.  Another season of empty-stadium baseball isn’t at all palatable to the league or the owners, and while it doesn’t seem feasible that we’ll see full stadiums anytime soon, a downturn in COVID-19 numbers could result in at least some ballparks being permitted to sell tickets this summer, if under the types of social distancing guidelines we saw during the NLCS and World Series.

Any reduction in the season would have to be negotiated with the players union, and Nightengale says that the league and the MLBPA have yet to begin discussions about the season’s length (though the two sides have been talking about such issues as the implementation of the designated hitter in the National League).  As one might imagine, the players aren’t likely to accept the reduced salaries that would come with a lesser number of games, so fans could be in for another protracted set of public negotiations akin to what we saw in the lead-up to the 2020 season.

In the union’s view, as Nightengale writes, “it proved a year ago that teams can safely adapt to protocols,” so the MLBPA wants to play a 162-game schedule under the same health and safety guidelines as the 2020 season.  While a schedule delay isn’t out of the question, Nightengale hears from multiple players that “the ideal scenario…would be to delay the season for everyone to be vaccinated, but to extend it a month where a full season can be played with everyone still receiving their full salary.”  However, that idea won’t fly with the league, as “it would still result in massive revenue losses for teams with restricted or no fans,” plus there isn’t any desire on the league’s part to stretch the postseason into late November or December.

MLBTR Poll: Forecasting The Dave Dombrowski Era In Philadelphia

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After a bit of uncertainty, the Phillies hired the guy they wanted as the first-ever president of baseball operations in team history – and he just so happens to be the only GM ever to take three different teams to the World Series. Dave Dombrowski now aims to take a two-point lead on that score in Philadelphia. To his own admission, however, “no one thinks the Phillies are one player away.” So there’s work to do. What that means exactly makes for the nebulous, but substantive difference between Dombrowski and the what-might-have-been “other” guy.

The immediate assumption has been that Dombrowski’s appointment portends aggressive spending – either of dollars in free agency or of prospects via trades. Dombrowski has a reputation as a wheeler-and-dealer, and after three consecutive seasons of floating around .500, there’s some urgency to improve, directed largely by managing partner John Middleton. It doesn’t take a genius to put two and two together.

And yet, Dombrowski himself took a more measured stance in his first press conference with reporters yesterday. So, too, did Middleton and team president Andy MacPhail. As I wrote yesterday, a focus on system building rather than immediate contention during his introduction speaks volumes about the level of self-awareness inside Philadelphia’s leadership group. While they’re not going to disappear immediately into the mud, don’t wait for J.T. Realmuto to come waltzing in the door behind Dombrowski either.

As for the new headmaster, he’s taking some time to get to know his new operation. It’s going to be a lot of sleepless nights in the coming weeks as he makes his first moves in office, such as deciding whether or not to hire a general manager. Though there’s a lot of work to do, Middleton, Dombrowski, and the Phillies seem a harmonious fit. You can add manager Joe Girardi to that group as well, whose old-school blood hasn’t kept him from recognizing important evolutions in the game – much like Dombrowski. No, they’re not the poster-children for the sabremetric, biomechanic, new-school evangelists, but they’re hepper to what’s wise in this game than it may seem.

It’s time for you to weigh in. Dombrowski is said to have signed a four-year deal, so let’s keep our prognostication to that time frame. Say that at the end of these four years, coronavirus is a thing of the past, the MLB Draft League has ballooned interest in the sport, expansion is an inevitability, and Dombrowski wants to return to Nashville to run the Music City Stars. How are we going to feel about the Dombrowski era in Philly? Just for fun, let’s frame out answers in the form of Phillies of the past. Feel free to add your own in the comments. (Poll links for app users.)

Quick Hits: Non-Tender Increase, Changes In Catching, Positive COVID-19 Tests

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Given the financial impact of coronavirus and the increasing trend of non-tenders, expect a record number of non-tenders this offseason, writes Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs. Last year’s 53 total non-tenders was already a record, and it’s safe to assume MLB will surpass that number this year. There are success stories from this field, of course. Take Kevin Gausman, who was non-tendered last winter before being extended and accepting the $18.9MM qualifying offer just a year later.

Increasing DFAs is an issue that compounds on itself, however, as those non-tendered players enter the available player pool, giving teams more and more options to consider opposite their own arbitration-eligible players. Specifically, Longehagen points to catchers, power first basemen or designated hitters, and infielders without power as three pools of players likely to hit the open market.

  • Longenhagen also provides interesting analysis about the changing dynamics of the catcher position. The eventual implementation of electronic strikes zones diminishes the important of pitch framing, which has long been on the league radar. But Longenhagen also notes that the universal DH makes the catcher spot the most likely place for a pinch-hitter. The universal DH does seem to be on its way, even if it doesn’t happen in 2021, and the two-back system, so to speak, is already in use for much of the league. Still, the specialization of the catcher position is shifting ever so slightly. Whether we see arm strength and blocking ability more valued in free agency this season remains to be seen. Electronic strike zones could alter the pitching market too, of course, but any shifts in that regard are more likely to be in the development and drafting stages than free agency.
  • The Mariners cancelled their last two instructional league games due to a pair of positive COVID-19 tests, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (via Twitter). One of the two also had a pair of negative tests, while the other is isolating and following protocols. There were no other positive tests and contact tracing was performed, but the Peoria facility is still being shut down – as has become the standard – out of an “abundance of caution.”

AL East Notes: Rays, Red Sox, Rich Hill

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Participation in the postseason usually garners a significant revenue bump for qualifying teams, which made it particularly painful for the small-market Rays to miss out on the revenue from 10 home games in 2020. Not only did the Rays lose that potential revenue because of coronavirus, but this year’s playoffs actually cost them money, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. They’re also missing out on their usual revenue-sharing check, as well as, obviously, attendance revenues, notes Topkin. It’s going to have an affect on Rays’ roster decisions this winter. That could mean smaller cost-saving moves like non-tendering Hunter Renfroe, or it could mean more impactful moves like dealing core players Kevin Kiermaier or Blake Snell. Rays GM Erik Neander is likely to be active exploring the trade market, but that’s nothing new for Tampa.

  • Rich Hill finished a successful one-year stint in Minnesota with a 3.03 ERA/3.88 FIP across 8 starts totaling 38 2/3 innings with 7.2 K/9 to 4.0 BB/9. It’s those last two numbers that might trouble the 40-year-old Hill. From 2017 to 2019, Hill posted 10.68 K/9 to 2.97 BB/9 with the Dodgers. Still, Hill was largely effective in 2020 by keeping the ball in the ballpark. But he didn’t accomplish his primary goal: winning a World Series. Hill has only appeared in five postseasons throughout his 16-year career, and he’s never won a World Series. In choosing his next team, writes WEEI’s Rob Bradford, Hill’s primary calculus is playing the odds and trying to find a place to contribute that gives him the best chance of winning a World Series.
  • That said, Hill hasn’t ruled out joining his hometown Red Sox, per Bradford. Hill does offer an assessment of Boston’s needs this offseason, saying, “Bullpen. Work on the bullpen. I think the lineup is good. Get everybody back. Obviously getting Sale back is huge. Eddie [Rodriguez], having him come back, being healthy. And Nathan [Eovaldi]. Those are three really, really, really good guys.” It’ll be tough sledding for the Red Sox in the AL East, though returning Sale and Rodriguez to the rotation would be a healthy start.

MLB Planning For Fan Attendance In 2021

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Commissioner Rob Manfred took a judicious approach to allowing fans into stadiums in 2020, and it’s hard to argue that it wasn’t the right strategy. MLB didn’t allow fans into stadiums until the Championship Series, and even then they limited entries. With rigorous testing and strict protocols, MLB went 54 days without a positive test before Justin Turner tested positive for COVID-19 during game six of the World Series. The NFL, in their struggle to contain the virus, is proving the significance of MLB’s achievement in that regard.

There’s a new plan for next season, however. Commissioner Manfred believes that the lack of live baseball diminished interest in the sport and affected revenues beyond the obvious loss of ticket sales. Specifically, MLB estimates that 40% of their overall revenue ties directly to the presence of fans at live games, per the Athletic’s Evan Drellich. Even in a limited capacity, fans at ballgames in 2021 could help keep audience engaged throughout the season and into its endgame: the playoffs.

Drellich provides some Nielson ratings to quantify the drop in postseason viewership. Both the Championship Series and the World Series saw ~30% drop in viewership from the previous season.

Of course, there are many challenges ahead for Commissioner Manfred and MLB. Cases of coronavirus are at an all-time high, and though the winter has long been projected to be particularly rough, the current rate of infection in places that Wisconsin is worse than expected. Whether the nation can get control of the situation before March and April remains very much unclear. Manfred does note that the allowance of fan attendance can only move forward with approval from local health officials.

They will have the experience of the 2020 season to help them along, of course. The couple of breakouts early in the season helped MLB to narrow their focus to containing the spread of the virus while simply allowing for changes to the schedule. Regional play also helped contain outbreaks for MLB, though it’s unclear right now if a similar approach would be taken over a full season – or even if MLB plans on having a “full” 162-game season in 2021.

Rob Manfred Discusses MLB’s Revenue Losses

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Talk of revenue losses throughout the sport has been prominent since the outset of the Covid-19 pandemic, but commissioner Rob Manfred put some more concrete numbers on the concept this week. In an interview with Barry M. Bloom for Sportico, Manfred claimed that the league’s 30 teams have amassed a collective $8.3 billion in debt and will post anywhere from $2.8 to $3.0 billion in combined operational losses.

Manfred’s comments come at a time when many clubs throughout the league have made sweeping layoffs to both business-side and baseball operations employees. The Athletic’s Alex Coffey reported last week that the A’s, for instance, are preparing to lay off upwards of 150 employees who were furloughed throughout much of the 2020 season. They’re far from the only club making such broad-ranging cuts, although Oakland certainly figures to be on the more extreme end of the spectrum.

Evan Drellich of The Athletic wrote yesterday that a league official claimed Major League Baseball’s EBITDA — earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization — showed a loss of $2.7 billion but also noted that with the league’s books closed, such numbers can’t be independently verified. A league official claimed to Drellich, perhaps more dubiously, that even under normal conditions the league would have expected $10 billion in revenue against $10.2 billion of expenses — a rather eye-opening and frankly questionable assertion when considering last year’s widely reported $10.7 billion of revenue for MLB.

In that sense, the claims put forth by Manfred and the unnamed league official(s) who spoke to Drellich on the condition of anonymity call back to the ugly standoff between MLB and the MLBPA during return-to-play negotiations, wherein the players repeatedly called for ownership to open its books and provide quantitative evidence of the extent of the damage they were facing. Detractors will surely question the veracity of the league’s figures, which Drellich notes do not account for “ancillary” revenue streams like stakes in regional sports networks.

Regardless, there’s no doubting that revenue losses felt by clubs in the absence of fans is enormous. The job cuts throughout the sport are but one way for ownership to soften the blow, but the most direct means of correcting course for owners is expected to be via club payroll. For months we’ve heard expectations of a bloated group of non-tendered players and a tepid market for free agents. To that end, Bloom notes that some club executives have already signaled that they won’t be able to commit salary to players this winter.

Some clubs will surely still spend money. The purported $2.8 to $3 billion in operating losses isn’t necessarily divided evenly among the league’s 30 clubs, and tolerance for loss varies from owner to owner (or ownership group to ownership group). Still, on a macro level it’s wise to anticipate large-scale reductions in team payrolls.

Most concerning for players, remaining club employees and the health of the sport is the potential for additional revenue losses in 2021. While the obvious hope is that fans will be back in the park for a full 162-game slate next season, that’s wholly dependent on the status of the coronavirus and the associated public health guidelines in place. To this point there’s no clear timeline on when a vaccine will be produced, approved, scaled and distributed such that clubs could expect business as usual. And while Manfred has previously taken an optimistic tone on that front, he struck a different chord in speaking with Bloom this week.

“[I]t’s going to be difficult for the industry to weather another year where we don’t have fans in the ballpark and have other limitations on how much we can’t play and how we can play,” Manfred told Bloom. “…It’s absolutely certain, I know, that we’re going to have to have conversations with the MLBPA about what 2021 is going to look like. It’s difficult to foresee a situation right now where everything’s just normal.”

AL Notes: Yankees, Voit, Orioles, Angels, GM Timeline

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Luke Voit’s plantar fasciitis is under control after receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection, per the Athletic’s Lindsey Adler (via Twitter). Voit will be in a walking boot for a week or two, but the Yankees expect him to be healed by the end of that time. Voit didn’t miss any time to the issue, and he certainty didn’t appear to be overly affected while slashing .277/.338/.610 and leading the majors with 22 home runs.

While the Dodgers drub the Braves in game three of the NLDS, let’s stay in the junior circuit and check in on some non-playoff teams…

  • The Baltimore Orioles laid off 11 workers and furloughed 35 more, per Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun. At present, those furloughed employees are set to return to work on February 1st to match the timeline for spring training. Teams all across MLB have laid off large portions of the their staff because of revenue lost to the coronavirus pandemic. No fans were allowed in Camden Yards for the 60-game season, very much complicating the revenue picture for the Orioles (as with other clubs) moving forward. Ruiz provides a quote from GM Mike Elias that sums up the 2020 season, saying: “Baseball teams do a lot of planning, looking ahead, and just all of that is just totally out of the window because of this event that came in and turned the world upside down.”
  • Unsurprisingly, the Angels will not be filling their GM vacancy until after the World Series, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (via Twitter). The Angels aren’t particular close to finding their next hire, per Fletcher. It certainly makes sense that they might take some time. On the other hand, given how much work there is to be done in the offseason, some urgency to set a clear organizational direction prior to the impactful events of the offseason also makes sense. Eppler was hired in early October of 2015, though in that case, Jerry Dipoto, the previous GM, had stepped down in July.

 

Nolan Arenado Undergoes Tests On Shoulder, Season In Jeopardy

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After an offseason when the 91-loss Colorado Rockies stayed mostly silent due to financial constraints, the Rockies entered 2020 with low expectations from the national media. They nonetheless jumped out to an 11-3 start, forcing consideration of the Rockies as a potential playoff contender. The bottom fell out before long, however, as the Rockies turned in a minus-68 run differential and fell towards the bottom of the National League. After four straight losses, they’re now 23-29 and 3 games out of a playoff spot.

Making matters worse, star third baseman Nolan Arenado recently underwent tests on his sore left shoulder, and it’s possible the Rox will be without their superstar for the remaining 8 games, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com. He’s been affected all season by the injury to the A/C joint of his left shoulder, perhaps helping contribute to a substandard (for him) .253/.303/.434 slash line with 8 home runs over 201 plate appearances. 1.4 rWAR over 48-games is nothing to sneeze at – it still extrapolates out to 4.7 rWAR over 162.

Just two years into his 8-year, $260MM deal and there’s more uncertainty than ever around Arenado’s future in Colorado. His priority has been clear: he wants to play for a contender. Per Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post, when questioned about whether making the playoffs this season would serve as proof of concept for the Rockies being on the right track, he answered, “No question for me. Eight teams (out of 15) make the playoffs and if we’re not one of those eight teams that’s not a very good sign.” The Rockies were already in a tough place payroll-wise, and after losing so much expected revenue because of the coronavirus pandemic, they are likely entering an even harsher financial climate. Paired with the opt-out Arenado holds following the 2021 season, and a legitimate case can be made for the wisdom – or even necessity – of an Arenado trade.

The Rockies playoff hopes aren’t dead yet, however. Four games at San Francisco and four more at Arizona are winnable games to round out the season. Still, second place in the West is well out of reach, leaving the Rockies to compete for 1 of 2 wild card spots in a battle royal of contenders that includes two of the Cardinals, Reds, and Brewers, two of the Phillies, Marlins, and Mets, and of course, the Giants. Two of those seven clubs will make the playoffs via the 2nd place slot in their divisions, leaving five teams the Rockies need to leapfrog in the final week of games in order to reach postseason play. A sweep of the Giants would put them a game ahead of San Francisco, but that’s a lot to expect from a team with a .316 winning percentage over their last 38 games.

MLB, MLBPA Reach Agreement On Postseason Plan

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3:55pm: Because of concerns over air quality in the West Coast (the Mariners-Giants game in Seattle on Tuesday was postponed for that reason), the Phoenix area has become the league’s top fallback option for postseason games, Jeff Passan of ESPN tweets.

12:52PM: Major League Baseball has officially announced the postseason schedule, which is set to begin on September 29 with the start of the AL wild card series.  One notable aspect of the schedule is that there aren’t any scheduled off-days until the World Series, so teams won’t get any break (or a chance to reset their pitching staffs) unless they win their series in early fashion.

10:25am: Players’ families will have the option of quarantining at the hotel with them in the seven days prior to the postseason, Rosenthal tweets. They’d then be able to join the bubbles for the duration of the playoffs.

9:49am: Sherman further reports that teams will continue operating their alternate training sites during the pre-postseason quarantine, but transfers between the alternate site and big league roster won’t be permitted. As such, all players on the IL and 40-man roster are likely to join in that quarantine setting to allow clubs to continue to make roster moves.

That’s hardly an ideal setup, as those players seem unlikely to be able to participate in simulated games and other standard workouts, but the league is clearly exercising extra caution in order to ensure the postseason is able to take place.

9:37am: Sherman adds that the previously reported quarantine measures leading up to the playoffs will remain in place for players. All members of contending clubs, even those playing at home, will quarantine in hotels for seven days prior to the first round of postseason play. They’ll be tested daily during that period. If a team is eliminated from postseason contention in that seven-day span, of course, those players can leave the hotels early.

9:30am: Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association are in agreement on a plan for the 2020 postseason that includes a “bubble” format hosted at neutral sites for the Division Series, League Championship Series and World Series, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). A formal announcement is expected today.

Details of the arrangement remain sparse, although at last check, the plan was to host the ALDS and ALCS at National League stadiums in southern California (Dodger Stadium and San Diego’s Petco Park). The NLDS and NLCS, in turn, would be hosted at a pair of American League sites: the Rangers’ Globe Life Field and the Astros’ Minute Maid Park. The World Series would be staged at Globe Life Field as well. The first round of play would be hosted at the home park of the matchup’s higher seed, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets.

Those points seemed largely agreed upon, but there were other details to be hammered out. Notably, players pushed back against the quarantine measures that were to be put in place for their family members before being permitted to join them in the bubble. It also appears that there’s been some discussion of allowing fans in a limited capacity, as commissioner Rob Manfred suggested last night in an online event with Hofstra University’s business school (link via Evan Drellich of The Athletic). Whether that possibility is woven into the agreement is not yet clear.

“I’m hopeful that the World Series and the LCS we will have limited fan capacity,” Manfred said in that appearance. “…Obviously it’ll be limited numbers, socially distanced, protection provided for the fans in terms of temperature checks and the like. Kind of the pods like you saw in some of the NFL games. We’ll probably use that same theory.”

Referring to anything as a “bubble” when family members and fans — even in limited quantities — are permitted to enter the equation seems like a reach, but it’s notable that it’s even under discussion. Limited fan attendance would complicate health and safety protocols but would also soften the financial blow that clubs are facing without gate revenue in 2020. It could also serve as somewhat of a litmus test in advance of the 2021 season, which Manfred acknowledged is not a given to return to normalcy from day one:

“I think the trick in terms of what’s going to happen next year, it’s dependent on the virus,” said Manfred. “The virus controls and it’s ‘do you have a vaccine? Are we still seeing spikes?’ That’s going to drive what local governments are going to allow us to do.”

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