Big Hype Prospects: Chourio, De La Cruz, Harrison, Tovar, Tiedemann
Trade deadline content is finally in the rearview mirror. Baseball America put out a spicy August update to their Top 100 rankings. So too did The Athletic’s Keith Law. We’ll talk about some of the biggest movers and discrepancies.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Jackson Chourio, 18, OF, MIL (A+)
72 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .270/.333/.429
Chourio began generating hype during extended Spring Training when it became apparent that he possessed all the traits teams look for in Statcast-era prospects. Baseball America recently ranked him as the game’s second-best prospect while Law tagged him third. Either way, it’s quite the climb for a player who was unranked prior to the season. He made short work of Low-A opponents (.324/.373/.600), albeit with an elevated strikeout rate. Upon promotion to High-A, he’s trimmed his strikeout rate while holding his own against much older competition. He’s currently on pace to reach the Majors as a 20-year-old and might even debut next season (unlikely). He’s already a big league caliber center fielder. We’re just waiting for his bat to prove it at each stop along the way.
Elly De La Cruz, 20, SS, CIN (AA)
84 PA, 5 HR, 7 SB, .304/.345/.620
After his 2021 breakout, which was built upon the twin pillars of loud Statcast measurables and enticing results in the lowest levels, De La Cruz has only improved upon his success. Thanks to his size (6’5″) and incredible athleticism, comparisons to Oneil Cruz are nearly unavoidable. Even Fernando Tatis Jr. comes to mind. That’s because, despite his youth, De La Cruz is clearly a man among boys. You can’t help but notice when he takes the field. Naysayers will point to poor discipline and hefty whiff rates. His proponents will break out the numbers. He has 25 home runs and 35 stolen bases across 390 plate appearances this season. His contact profile is best described as “laser show,” complete with a .389 BABIP. Nobody is even sure that he won’t develop discipline against actual competition. He’s yet to experience true adversity.
Law is sold, ranking de la Cruz eighth overall. The Baseball America crew – who were among the first to move on him last season – remain a bit more cautious. He’s 22nd on their list.
Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AA)
57.1 IP, 13.19 K/9, 4.71 BB/9, 2.83 ERA
During the course of this season, both of the aforementioned list-makers bumped Harrison up from the back end of their Top 100 to within the Top 20. Harrison’s results speak for themselves. He’s dominated Double-A competition as a 20-year-old. (Today is his 21st birthday!) His slider is one of the most effective breaking pitches in the minors, in part due to a deceptive delivery. Said deceptiveness could factor into his elevated walk rate, which will be something to watch as he continues to ascend the ladder. He might be the kind of “wild” that plays better in the Majors than the minors (see Camilo Doval as an example). Harrison has a floor as a shutdown reliever, but he should comfortably stick in the rotation.
Ezequiel Tovar, 21, SS, COL (AA)
295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545
Per Baseball America, Tovar rated as the ninth-best prospect in the Rockies’ system entering this season. Given the general antipathy for Rockies prospects these days, it goes without saying he was unranked on leaguewide Top 100 lists. He’s improved upon a balanced approach as a hitter – both in the types of contact he makes and the directionality of his batted balls. Tovar’s even added a touch of plate discipline. While just about every hitter is better at Coors Field, Tovar is the sort of player who can take maximum advantage of the spacious venue.
Tovar is currently sidelined with a groin injury. He’s now 14th on the Baseball America list and 25th for The Athletic.
Ricky Tiedemann, 19, SP, TOR (AA)
(A+) 37.2 IP, 12.90 K/9, 2.87 BB/9, 2.39 ERA
Tiedemann, soon to turn 20, has pitched at three levels this season for a total of 70.2 innings. He recently debuted at Double-A with three near-flawless innings. Like Tovar, he entered the season as the ninth-ranked prospect in his organization’s system. Now, he’s 31st in the game for Baseball America and 41st for Law. If he maintains his results, he could soon be considered a Top 10 overall prospect. I get the sense publicly available reports haven’t yet caught up with Tiedemann. They certainly don’t match his results. There are references to below average command and a mix of three “above-average” offerings. If the command is truly minus and he doesn’t have at least one double-plus pitch, I would expect higher ERAs. Either he’s filling the zone with hittable pitches and getting away with it, or his stuff dominates in-zone, OR his command isn’t actually minus. A fourth alternative – he’s been a little lucky over some small samples.
In any event, Tiedemann’s rise is rapid. It’s telling that he wasn’t traded at the deadline.
Five More
Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21): Henderson has already been covered ad nauseum in this column. He’s the number one prospect per Baseball America. Law rates him as second best. While this is technically his age 21 season, his June 29 birthday means he’s a young 21. His advanced feel for hitting is all the more impressive.
Corbin Carroll, ARI (21): Carroll too has seen plenty of favorable words on these pages. He’s Law’s top prospect and ranks fifth for the BA staff. An interesting juxtaposition with Henderson, Carroll is an old 21-year-old. He’ll turn 22 in a little over a week. Of course, without the lost COVID year and a lengthy injury in 2021, Carroll would probably be in the Majors right now.
Noelvi Marte, CIN (20): I’ve had some interesting behind-the-scenes conversations about Marte. Earlier in the season, a source suggested to me that Marte might be overrated because he punished less physically developed opponents. The implication was that he might cool against more advanced competition. After relaying this detail, I received pushback from a separate source disputing that notion. This is what analysts mean when they say a prospect is contentious. In any event, Marte held serve on Law’s list, checking in at 12th. Baseball America places him 35th – a slight improvement over their last update. Since joining the Reds’ High-A affiliate, he’s batting .229/.282/.429 with two home runs and a steal in 39 plate appearances.
Evan Carter, TEX (19): Carter was making headway towards Top 100 lists in early 2021 before a season-ending injury left him stranded with just 146 plate appearances. He ascended to High-A this season and has hit like a champ; .285/.376/.484 with 10 home runs and 22 steals in 395 plate appearances. He has plate discipline and an advanced feel for contact. This is the starter kit for a polished and highly valuable hitter, non-superstar division. BA has him 43rd.
Josh Jung, TEX, (24): This last one isn’t about the rankings (roughly 50th on both lists). Jung is back in action, demonstrating power and discipline over 44 rehab plate appearances. He has three games in Triple-A and could soon reach the Majors. Remember, he was a candidate to make the Rangers out of Spring Training. While they could play service shenanigans to gain control of his age-31 season, it might behoove the club more to get his feet wet.
Editor’s Note: this post was inadvertently published under Steve Adams’ byline at first. Apologies to Brad.
Big Hype Prospects: Cruz, Abrams, Volpe, Veen, Wiemer
This week, we investigate a mix of prospects at a wide range of levels.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Oneil Cruz, 23, SS, Pirates (MLB)
(AAA numbers) 247 PA, 9 HR, 11 SB, .232/.336/.422
When Tim Dierkes suggested I run this column, Cruz was his first example of the type of player he wanted to see covered. I’d previously written a fantasy column about “Peripheral Prospects” in this same format covering lesser-known guys like Ken Waldichuk and Brett Kerry. It’s only fitting to touch upon Cruz one more time. While his Triple-A numbers don’t jump off the page, he eventually settled in to the level. Since early-May, he’s batted .280/.374/.520 with an 11.4 percent walk rate and 17.7 percent strikeout rate. Reportedly, he was disappointed by his initial demotion, and it contributed to his April-long slump.
Since rejoining the Majors, Cruz is 4-for-18 with a stolen base. In four games, he’s already hit four balls over 100-mph, including two lasers over 110-mph. This is consistent with his track record. Cruz is built like a young Aaron Judge, and he hits the ball nearly as hard. His typical angle of contact is geared towards ground ball and line drive contact which could limit his home run production. When he does lift the ball, you can expect to see it soar. Anytime he’s in the lineup, Cruz is one of the most fascinating players in the league.
C.J. Abrams, 21, SS, Padres (MLB)
(AAA numbers) 151 PA, 7 HR, 10 SB, .314/.364/.507
Like Cruz, Abrams had a previous brief taste of the Majors and recently returned for four games. He’s 2-for-15 with one strikeout. Unlike Cruz, his exit velocities have been outright poor – just 81.8-mph. Abrams’ selection to the Padres roster followed on the heels of a particularly torrid multi-week stretch. He hit .398/.442/.519 over his last 95 Triple-A plate appearances. Included in the fun were four home runs, a 5.3 percent walk rate, and an 11.6 percent strikeout rate.
Such production indicated immediate readiness, especially for a prospect of Abrams’ caliber who scouts adore. If there’s a shortcoming in his profile, it’s that he doesn’t walk. It’s not necessarily an issue of discipline. He expands the zone in part because his speed has allowed him to still reach base in the minors. It’s possible he’ll learn to lay off marginal pitches in the Majors to improve his outcomes. If he does, he’ll flower into a high-quality leadoff hitter. There are still questions about his eventual defensive home – and not only because he has to share a field with Fernando Tatis Jr.
The worst-case scenario for Abrams is as an over-aggressive, contact-oriented slasher who plays all over the field. Between injuries and his incredible talent, we haven’t seen Abrams make many adjustments as a professional.
Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, Yankees (AA)
270 PA, 9 HR, 25 SB, .233/.326/.427
Over the offseason, I was virtually cornered by several Yankees fans who not-so-calmly explained that Volpe was the best prospect since Mike Trout. To the glee of everybody who loves to hate the Yankees, he performed particularly poorly until mid-May. Through May 17, he slashed a meager .170/.297/.330. Optimists cited four reasons he would rebound. First, the talent remained evident. He was working counts (13.8 percent walk rate). His .195 BABIP indicated poor luck. Lastly, he wasn’t the first prospect to wilt in chilly early-season weather.
As the calendar has heated up, so too has Volpe. He’s slashing .292/.356/.517 since May 18, a span of 132 plate appearances. He’s also putting more balls in play (6.8 percent walk rate, 15.9 percent strikeout rate) with a normal .319 BABIP. Volpe is on the shortlist for top prospect remaining in the minors. He’s also making a strong case for promotion to Triple-A – possibly by the end of this month.
Zac Veen, 20, OF, Rockies (A+)
258 PA, 8 HR, 25 SB, .259/.368/.440
The Rockies don’t exactly have an illustrious reputation with prospects. It’s nice to see Veen continue to perform to his draft pedigree. Scouting reports uniformly express concern about his hit tool playing against elite competition. While he possesses considerable raw power, his swing has qualities that some might describe as grooved. Such hitters can still succeed in the Majors. Billy Wagner once ridiculed Pat Burrell’s one-path swing (after allowing a home run). Joc Pederson might be a more relevant groovy comparison as a left-handed hitter with a pretty, loopy swing.
In any event, Veen is on track to spend some time in Double-A this season and debut either late in 2023 or early 2024. He works counts (14.3 percent walk rate) though he is also whiff prone (23.6 percent strikeout rate, 14.3 percent swinging-strike rate). While he’s 25-for-26 on the basepaths this season, it’s not clear if Veen will continue to run as he moves up the organizational ladder.
Joey Wiemer, 23, OF, Brewers (AA)
267 PA, 15 HR, 20 SB, .272/.348/.531
A divisive prospect, Wiemer is gaining steam as one of those guys who might succeed – perhaps even thrive – despite glaring flaws. He changed his mechanics heading into 2021 and unlocked massive in-game power. He launched 27 home runs in 472 plate appearances last season before tearing through the Arizona Fall League – one home run and a .467/.568/.667 triple-slash in 30 plate appearances.
There’s question if the hit tool will play in the Majors, but the power is evident enough to easily support a low-average approach. A worst-case scenario might look something like Adolis Garcia with plate discipline. Or Adam Duvall with discipline and an eagerness to run. He sells out for pull-side, fly-ball contact. He’s posted high BABIPs at every level, but this is a hitting profile that usually yields low BABIPs due to a cacophony of pulled grounders and easy fly outs. We should see him tested in Triple-A before long. Milwaukee might even need his help in the Majors late in the season if they don’t add outfield depth at the trade deadline.
Having watched him play several games, the energy he gives off evokes Bryce Harper.
Five More
Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (21): Last week’s lead BHP (that’s Big Hype Prospect), I noted Henderson would soon jump from around the 50th prospect to somewhere in the Top 10 as listmakers prepare their midseason updates. Since then, Baseball Prospectus’ Jarrett Seidler indicated Henderson might be the top prospect left in the minors. A highly-placed source at another major industry outlet confirmed Henderson is on a shortlist of about five players for their top prospect. As I understand it, this excludes all prospect-eligible players currently in the Majors like Michael Harris, Oneil Cruz, and C.J. Abrams.
Eury Perez, Marlins (19): Currently shredding Double-A hitters, Perez is perhaps the most-precocious pitching prospect since Julio Urias. While Urias’ development was eventually delayed by injuries, Perez remains both healthy and effective. Most of what I would say about Perez was gleaned from the Marlins system update posted to FanGraphs earlier today. So, I’ll let you read what Eric Longenhagen has to say directly.
Jeter Downs, Red Sox (23): Downs made his debut recently, struck out three times in four plate appearances, and was promptly optioned back to Triple-A. Once a fairly well-regarded prospect, he’s fallen off the map since joining the Red Sox in the Mookie Betts trade. He still possesses tantalizing power and speed along with decent plate discipline. Unfortunately, there’s a ton of swing-and-miss in the profile; the kind that’s readily exploitable by seasoned pitchers. The best-case scenario these days is a sort of Dylan Moore-like outcome.
Brett Baty, Mets (22): Baty was, for me, the most visibly impressive prospect in the Arizona Fall League. Like Volpe, he had a chilly start to his Double-A campaign – his second visit to the level. He currently has a 14-game hitting over which he’s tamed his strikeout rate and pulled his season-long batting line up to an above-average .282/.372/.450 performance. Like the most of the other Double-A bats we’ve profiled today, he’s seemingly on the cusp of a promotion.
Noelvi Marte, Mariners (20): Two weeks ago, I noted some in the scouting biz had indicated Marte’s early-career dominance might be linked to physical traits that won’t necessarily scale as he advances to higher levels. In plain English, the boy got big young. Last week, I issued something of a retraction because I’d misplaced my source. Since then, I rediscovered the initial note, and it comes from a highly reputable source with access to dozens of scouts. All of this is to say that Marte doesn’t seem to be the second-coming if you buy into this early-development narrative. Not everybody does! This has been the most contentious take to appear in BHP. I look forward to fomenting more discussion about Marte. For what it’s worth, his June-long slump has continued. He hit .214/.241/.250 over the last week and is at .191/.257/.324 for the month.
Big Hype Prospects: Henderson, Harris, De La Cruz, Brash, Valera
This week, we (mostly) delve deeper into the minors to examine some fast-rising future stars.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Gunnar Henderson, 20, 3B/SS, BAL (AAA)
(AA) 208 PA, 8 HR, 12 SB, .312/.452/.573
Few prospects have done more to improve their stock than Henderson. Coming off a passable but unspectacular 2021 season, Henderson has torched minor league pitching. Since earning a promotion to Triple-A, he’s continued to punish opposing pitchers to the tune of .286/.500/.536 with two home runs in 40 plate appearances. He also has 12 walks against just five strikeouts. In Double-A, he posted 19.7 percent walk and 18.3 percent strikeout rates.
His outlandish performance to date is backed by scouting observations. I spoke with Orioles Director of Player Development Matt Blood prior to the season, and he specifically highlighted Henderson as someone who has turned the corner mentally. Last year, Henderson had some of the markers of passivity – namely a high walk rate, high strikeout rate, and a modest swinging strike rate. This season, he’s reportedly improved upon his selectivity, punishing pitches in the zone while continuing to spit on those outside the zone.
Henderson currently ranks 45th on the MLB Pipeline Top Prospects List. At this rate, he’ll soon join the Top 10 – unless he races to the Majors before the listmakers have time to adjust. The folks who curate your favorite prospect list tend to be quite conservative about upgrading guys based on a partial-season breakout, and with reason! We’ve seen many players post astronomical half-seasons only to later resume a more ordinary development path.
Michael Harris II, 21, OF, ATL (MLB)
70 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .328/.357/.537
To the best of my knowledge, Harris was the third position player to be promoted straight from Double-A to a Major League starting lineup this season. The first, C.J. Abrams, was overexposed in the Majors. Cubs utilityman Christopher Morel looks right at home in the big leagues. So too does Harris.
Harris makes low-angle contact with an all-fields approach. He’s also making frequent hard and barreled contact. Both rates are above league average as measured by Statcast. Taken together, he has the traits of a high batting average hitter. Where he seemingly lags is plate discipline. He’s taken a swing-happy approach in his first exposure to the Majors. He’s especially prone to offering at pitches outside of the zone. His in-zone swing rate is only a hair above league average. His contact rate is roughly league average too. In other words, his aggression hasn’t proven costly. Yet.
It’s not uncommon for physically gifted prospects to reach the Majors, perform surprisingly well, then slump once scouting reports adjust. In Harris’ case, scouts are going to advise a bevy of breaking balls out of the zone. If he plunges into a slump, he might get a belated taste of Triple-A. If he adjusts quickly or otherwise holds his own, then he’s probably here to stay.
Harris is the midst of an eight-game hitting streak over which he’s batting .433/.469/.800 with both of his home runs and steals.
Elly De La Cruz, 20, 3B/SS, (A+)
222 PA, 12 HR, 17 SB, .304/.351/.594
If you haven’t already heard about De La Cruz, expect to see his name appearing in more and more articles. Scouts love his build – he has light-tower power, near-elite speed, and a cannon of an arm. He already makes some of the loudest contact in the minors. While he’s mostly worked at shortstop, there’s an expectation he’ll eventually move to third base or perhaps even center field.
A prospect of De La Cruz’s ilk always comes with caveats. His plate discipline can be (generously) described as questionable. His current 6.3 percent walk rate is a marked improvement over the 4.8 percent rate he posted last season. Meanwhile, his 30.6 percent strikeout rate is right in line with his previous performance.
Given his current contact profile, he could fall into a Javier Baez-like mold. Or perhaps Oneil Cruz is the better comp. After all, they’re both physical mutants who might stick at shortstop. Cruz happened to post similar numbers as a 20-year-old in High-A, then held his own in Double-A later that year. Cruz even had questions about his plate discipline. The Reds have no incentive to rush De La Cruz, but he should sniff the upper minors in the coming months.
Matt Brash, 24, SP/RP, SEA (AAA)
19 IP, 3.32 ERA, 15.16 K/9, 5.21 BB/9
Brash entered the season in the Mariners rotation, dazzled in his debut, then proceeded to walk the world. I recall watching that first outing and worrying what would happen when hitters stopped swinging at his breaking balls out of the zone. He didn’t show any sign of being able to command anything within the strike zone. Sure enough, it quickly became a problem. The Mariners made the decision to demote him from the Major League rotation straight to the Triple-A bullpen. A relief role offers a more direct path for pitchers with Brash’s combination of filthy stuff and poor command.
Signs are pointing in the right direction. After some initial command-related struggles, Brash has shoved over his last 10 appearances. His 10-inning scoreless streak dating back to May 25 includes just five hits and two walks compared to 16 strikeouts. He once again appears to be ready for prime time. Unfortunately for him, the Seattle bullpen is fairly robust and will soon need to make way for Ken Giles (who happens to be flailing in his rehab assignment). Brash may need to await a couple injuries to reclaim a role.
George Valera, 21, OF, CLE (AA)
236 PA, 10 HR, 2 SB, .291/.398/.513
Expectations for Valera vary greatly depending on the source. I’ve seen Cleveland fans compare him to Mike Trout. I’ve also seen open skepticism about his hit tool. His performance this season hasn’t exactly supported either of these extreme interpretations. Instead, he seems to be trending as a steady regular outfielder.
Statistically, Valera works counts and runs a tolerable 11.6 percent swinging strike rate. That’s helped him to around a 23 percent strikeout rate any time he’s settled into a level. His strikeout rate tends to spike above 30 percent when he moves up a level. He’s seemingly nearing a promotion to Triple-A. We should probably expect another temporary surge in strikeouts when it happens. His pattern of struggling then dominating each rung of the minor league ladder is reminiscent of Jo Adell. Valera’s discipline should serve to ensure some kind of big league role.
Five More
Zack Gelof, OAK (22): A 2021 draftee, the Athletics promoted Gelof straight from Low-A to Triple-A last season where he held his own in a 13-plate appearance trial. They assigned him to Double-A this season. He’s hit .315/.372/.458. Gelof recently tore the labrum of his non-throwing shoulder and could miss the bulk of this season depending on the treatment plan.
Jackson Chourio, MIL (18): Every season, there’s one teenaged prospect who catches the imagination of every prospect watcher. Last year, it was De La Cruz. This season, it’s Chourio. Scouting reports abound with praise for the young outfielder. He’s currently swatting .347/.394/.599 with six home runs and five steals in 160 plate appearances. It’s uncommon for well-rounded athletes to show this much power as an 18-year-old. Chourio is a long way from the Majors, but his path is already paved. He just has to stay on it, and walk the remaining miles.
Andrew Painter, PHI (19): Painter made a mockery of the complex league, posting a 1.40 ERA with 16.06 K/9 and 3.72 BB/9. He’s shown advanced feel for a pitcher his age. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen notes how well he combines a high, arm-side fastball with a biting slider. He also throws a curve and changeup, both of which lag behind his two primary offerings. He’ll need to develop those in order to stick in the rotation. Painter was recently promoted to High-A.
Bobby Miller, LAD (23): A flamethrowing right-hander, Miller has experienced mixed results in Double-A. He’s posted a 4.60 ERA with 9.57 K/9 and 3.26 BB/9. There’s a Hunter Greene-ish feel to Miller. His fastball runs over 100-mph with regularity, but certain characteristics cause it to play down. There’s relief risk here, especially if the Dodgers don’t trade him. They have the resources to use him in whichever role provides the most instant gratification.
Noelvi Marte, SEA (20): Last week, I observed that a sliver of the shine has come off Marte. A prominent writer reached out for my sources, and I realized I’d misplaced the relevant comment. I’ll do a better job sourcing my material going forward. Presently Marte is putting up slightly better than average production as one of the youngest players in High-A. He remains an exciting prospect.
Orioles Add Two To 60-Man Player Pool
The Orioles announced Friday that they’ve added lefty Brian Gonzalez and infielder Gunnar Henderson to their 60-man player pool. Both have been assigned to the club’s alternate training site in Bowie. Baltimore’s pool is up to 59 players.
Gonzalez, 24, doesn’t rank among Baltimore’s best prospects but has had success up through the Double-A level, so he could emerge as an eventual bullpen option in 2020. The 2014 third-rounder struggled as a starter in Class-A Advanced and Double-A, but he was moved to a full-time relief role in 2019 and enjoyed his best year since 2016. Gonzalez tallied 53 1/3 innings last season, pitching to a 3.38 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and an admittedly bloated 1.5 HR/9 mark. The O’s recently traded southpaw Richard Bleier to the Marlins, so Gonzalez replenishes some of that depth.
Henderson, meanwhile, won’t see any MLB time in 2020. The 19-year-old was Baltimore’s second-round pick in the 2019 draft and hasn’t even reached A-ball yet, so there’s no way the club will put him on the 40-man roster and bring him to the big leagues. That said, he’s widely regarded as one of the rebuilding club’s ten best prospects, so he’ll head to Bowie to get some work with the coaching staff there and see some simulated reps along with the club’s other top minor leaguers. As The Athletic’s Dan Connolly points out on Twitter, the O’s now have all of their Top 11 prospects (per Baseball America’s rankings) either on their MLB roster or at their Bowie site.
Orioles Sign Adley Rutschman
5:04pm: Rutschman’s deal is official, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com tweets. He signed for under slot at $8.1MM, according to Callis, who notes it surpasses the record $8MM the Pirates gave No. 1 overall pick Gerrit Cole in 2011.
9:27am: The Orioles are close to a deal with No. 1 overall draft pick Adley Rutschman, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). The former Oregon State catcher’s No. 1 overall slot carries a value of $8.42MM. Rutschman isn’t the only top O’s pick on whom there’s news today, however; MLB.com’s Jim Callis reports (also via Twitter) that the team’s second-rounder, Gunnar Henderson, has agreed to a deal worth $2.3MM. A high school shortstop out of Alabama, Henderson will receive a bonus that is well north of his No. 42 selection’s $1.771MM slot value.
Rutschman, 21, entered the draft as the consensus top talent on the board. The switch-hitter posted a ludicrous .411/.575/.751 batting line with 17 home runs, 10 doubles and a triple through 266 plate appearances in his junior season with the Beavers. Rutschman’s eye-popping batting average and considerable power numbers almost overshadow his plate discipline at first glance, but his 76-to-38 BB/K ratio is every bit as impressive as the rest of his numbers — if not more so.
Baseball America, MLB.com, Fangraphs and ESPN all ranked Rutschman as the top player in the 2019 draft. ESPN’s Keith Law noted that Rutschman’s defense and plus power give him a high floor with the ceiling of a repeated All-Star, while BA’s report touts him as a potential .300 hitter with plus defensive tools and “excellent” makeup and leadership abilities. Rutschman was the only player in the draft that Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen tabbed as a 60 FV (future value) player on the 20-80 scouting scale. Over at MLB.com, Callis and colleague Jonathan Mayo note that while some players who enter a season as a projected top talent struggle with that pressure and spotlight, Rutschman thrived and elevated his game en route to further cementing himself as this year’s best draft prospect.
Broadly speaking, Rutschman is regarded as a plus defender with power from both sides of the dish, strong plate discipline and a strong enough hit tool to post high batting averages as well. If all of that pans out, Rutschman has the makings of a franchise catcher for the new-look Baltimore front office.
Henderson, meanwhile, has yet to turn 18. Scouting reports were reflective of a split camp as to whether he can remain at shortstop or will need to move to third base down the road. MLB.com (No. 27) and Baseball America (No. 30) pegged him as a late-first-round talent, while ESPN (No. 40) and Fangraphs (No. 41) had him a bit lower. Henderson was Gatorade high school player of the year in Alabama and draws praise for his above-average power and the potential for an above-average hit tool. Henderson is young for his graduating class and still filling out his 6’3″ frame, leading to varying projections about his power potential and eventual defensive home. Even reports who project him to move to third base, though, suggest that he has the tools to be a quality defender there.